The Truth of the Matter

CSIS’s Seth Jones joins the podcast to discuss how Russia’s war with Ukraine could become a “frozen conflict,” as the battle rages on and neither side makes much headway, how the U.S. is assisting Ukraine with critical intelligence, and what lessons China may be learning from the conflict.

In this crossover episode with CSIS's The Impossible State podcast, Andrew Schwartz is joined by Victor Cha and Tom Karako to discuss the implications of the current conflict in Ukraine on North Korea's missile threat. They also discuss what it means for North Korea's capability going forward and what practical steps can be taken to accomplish denuclearization.

CSIS’s Jake Kurtzer joins the podcast to talk about the rescue of civilians stuck in the war-torn cities of Ukraine.

CSIS’s Dr. Cynthia Cook joins the podcast to discuss President Biden’s $33 billion proposed military aid package to Ukraine and what kinds of weapons and equipment have been effective for the Ukrainians.

CSIS’s J. Stephen Morrison joins the podcast to discuss the possible end of the pandemic, how Ukraine impacts combatting coronavirus, booster burnout, the covid culture war, and what is happening with China’s lockdowns.

In this crossover episode with CSIS's Coronavirus Crisis Update podcast, Andrew Schwartz and Steve Morrison are joined by Dr. Larry Gostin, professor of global health law and the faculty director of the O’Neill Institute for National and Global Health Law at Georgetown University. They discuss the aftermath of the April 18 nationwide injunction to block government mask mandates on public transportation. In Judge Mizelle’s opinion, the C.D.C. has exceeded its legal authority. But if the C.D.C. doesn’t have the power to make someone do something as unintrusive as wearing a mask, what can it do? If this ruling stands, it changes the role of the government, and our regulatory institutions will lose the power to protect us. The C.D.C. has been in a weakened position since the Trump administration but is staffed by strong scientists who want to do their best for Americans. Dr. Gostin argues for a High-Level Commission to take a top-down and bottom-up review of the C.D.C. to determine what systems, data, scientists, funding CDC needs, and what powers are legitimate. He does have hope: the U.S. is approaching higher levels of immunity, and the darkest days of the pandemic may be behind us.

New CSIS Europe Program director Max Bergmann joins the podcast to discuss the war in Ukraine, Sunday’s French election, and the future of the transatlantic relationship.

Ann Lee, co-founder of the Community Organized Relief Effort (CORE) with actor Sean Penn joins the podcast to discuss her organization’s relief efforts in Poland and Romania in support of Ukrainian refugees.

Spirit of America Founder/CEO Jim Hake joins the podcast to discuss his entrepreneurial approach to providing private U.S. assistance in the form of non-lethal aid to Ukraine.

CSIS Wadhwani Chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies Rick Rossow joins the podcast to discuss India’s view of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and its relationship with the United States in its wake.

CSIS Senior Associate and NDU researcher Jeffrey Mankoff joins the podcast to discuss the long-term prospects for the relationship between Washington and Moscow.

CSIS’s Trade Guy Bill Reinsch and CSIS’s Gerard DiPippo join the podcast to discuss sanctions on Russia, their impact, and if the U.S. and our allies can do more.

The Australian Financial Review’s Misha Zelinsky joins the podcast to discuss his reporting from Ukraine, including a visit to the city of Kryvyi Rih, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky grew up.

CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy Dr. Eliot Cohen joins the podcast to discuss what he views as the war in Ukraine’s “decisive moment,” and what the U.S. and its allies should do to further help the Ukrainian effort.

Tom Karako, director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project, joins the podcast to discuss missile use in Ukraine by Russia, the anti-tank and anti-aircraft defenses Ukraine is utilizing, and a discussion of what escalation might look like.

CSIS China Power Project director and senior fellow for Asian security, Bonny Lin, joins the podcast to discuss China’s support of Russia in its invasion of Ukraine and the implications that invasion has for Taiwan.

CSIS Khosravi Chair and Human Rights Initiative director, Marti Flacks, joins the podcast to discuss the latest evidence of war crimes committed against civilians by Russian forces in Bucha, Ukraine, and the U.S. and European response.

CSIS International Security Program director Dr. Seth Jones joins the podcast to discuss Putin’s battlefield missteps, Russia’s path going forward, how Ukraine can continue to defend itself, and what the US can do to support Ukraine.

CSIS’s James Andrew Lewis joins the podcast to discuss Russia’s cyber capability and willingness to wage cyberwar with Ukraine and NATO.

CSIS’s Dr. Eliot Cohen and Dr. Seth Jones join the podcast to assess the state of Russia’s war on Ukraine, what Vladimir Putin could do next, and how the United States may respond.

CSIS’s Andrew Lohsen joins the podcast to discuss Ukrainian President Zelensky’s plea to the U.S. and the West, the grave situation on the ground in Ukraine, and Russia’s efforts to control the narrative.

CSIS Global Food Security Program director Caitlin Welsh and CSIS Humanitarian Agenda director Jake Kurtzer join the podcast to talk about the Ukrainian refugee crisis, the growing food insecurity in Ukraine, and the internationalization of food insecurity due to Russia’s invasion.

CSIS’s Jake Harrington joins the podcast to talk about his new report on the ”Future of the U.S.-UK Alliance,” with a discussion of how that alliance relates to the war in Ukraine.

CSIS’s Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. Marine Colonel, joins the podcast to discuss Ukraine’s besieged cities, refugees and civilian targets, potential no-fly zones, U.S. lethal assistance, and more.

Former Assistant Treasury Secretary for Terrorist Financing and Deputy National Security Adviser Juan Zarate, a CSIS Senior Advisor, joins the podcast to discuss sanctions in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Just returning from an unofficial delegation to Taiwan led by retired Joint Chiefs’ chairman Mike Mullen to quell Taiwan’s fear of Chinese action against them in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, CSIS’s Mike Green joins the podcast to discuss the results of the visit to Taiwan, the Chinese view of Russia’s invasion, the Quad meeting this week and greater Asia and the Pacific alliance view of the events in Ukraine.

CSIS’s Marti Flacks and Erol Yayboke join the podcast to discuss the refugee and humanitarian crisis in wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

CSIS’s Caitlin Welsh joins the podcast to talk about the impact that food insecurity is having in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, disturbances in global food security, and what this all means for both Russia and the United States.

CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy Eliot Cohen joins the podcast to discuss the strength of the Western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the heroism of Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian people, Putin’s strategic failure, early surprises in the war, and what steps the Biden administration should take going forward to address the conflict.

CSIS’s International Security Program director and Senior VP Seth Jones joins the podcast to discuss Russia’s bombardment of Kyiv and Kharkiv, Putin’s miscalculations and overextension, potential off-ramps, and what the US is doing and can do to stop Russia’s war against Ukraine.

CSIS’s Nikos Tsafos and Ben Cahill join the podcast to talk about energy prices and the future of the energy and climate landscape in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to Tsafos, we are “seeing the end of Russia as an energy superpower.”

CSIS's Andrew Lohsen, who lived in Ukraine until recently, joins the podcast to discuss Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and how it might backfire on him.

CSIS’s Dr. Seth Jones joins the podcast to talk about the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine crisis, and what options the Biden administration has in addressing the situation.

In this crossover episode with the Coronavirus Crisis Update podcast, Andrew and Steve are joined by John Barry, historian and author of the award-winning The Great Influenza; the Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History, a study of the 1918 pandemic. He is currently working on a volume on Covid-19: “Writing books makes me happiest and craziest.” He has penned many editorials over the course of the pandemic, drawing lessons from 1918. What has he discovered? “What we learn from history is we learn nothing.” Where are we today? “Until vaccines are widely distributed and there is easy access to antivirals, the virus will rule. … I am optimistic the virus will continue trending to mildness” but there may be intermediate steps. “Mutations are random.” “We are at a potentially dangerous time” if we throw away our defenses and become indifferent or complacent. His high school football coach taught him a lesson for today: late in the game, you are tired and the other guy is tired. “The guy who focuses at the end will win.” That does not mean you “live in a box” and isolate yourself. Aaron Rodgers, while a great football player, “lied” about his vaccination status. He “is a total jackass.” Before becoming a writer, John Barry coached football at the high-school, small college, and major college levels. He is a Distinguished Professor at Tulane University’s Bywater Institute and a professor at the Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine.

In this crossover episode with Coronavirus Crisis Update, we are joined by Dr. Michael Osterholm, head of CIDRAP at the University of Minnesota, one of the most popular, respected, and trusted communicators on the pandemic. What is the recipe? Simplicity rules. He learned from his rural Iowa background, “if something doesn’t play at the 10:00 o’clock coffee club at the S&T Café on the main street of my little town, then it’s not going to play.” Be frank and honest: “Always tell the truth.” If dark things such as variants lie in the future, do not shy away from spotlighting them. But be careful of forecasting too far into the future, which can at times be based on “pixie dust.” Appeal to both “hearts and minds.” “Kindness is one of the most important virtues.” In his lauded and highly successful podcast, ‘The Osterholm Report: Covid-19,’ he is able to “combine science, policy, and life all in one venue.” The anti-vaccine movement has gained substantial strength; witness the ‘Defeat the Mandates’ rally on January 23rd at the Lincoln Memorial, which featured Robert Malone, now a celebrity since embraced by Joe Rogan, who compares public health officials to Nazi Germany. “This is the biggest challenge to global health in my lifetime.” It threatens childhood immunizations, generates “death threats I have received.” Many colleagues are burning out and leaving. He and other colleagues from the Biden presidential transition Covid-19 Advisory Group recently laid out a road map for “the new normal” in three Viewpoints published in JAMA. “We can’t keep swinging from surge to surge.” We need a better plan for data, testing, ventilation, rebuilding our health workforce. But we still have to prepare for the unknown. Recall Lewis Carroll’s advice: “If you don’t know where you are going, any road will get you there.” And “Don’t be surprised when you are surprised.” China’s ‘Zero-Covid’ approach, based on draconian lockdowns and mass testing, has delivered far better outcomes than we have seen here in the United States. But it will not succeed in the face of Omicron. “It is like trying to control the wind.” Something beyond ‘Zero-Covid’ is needed. Dr. Michael Osterholm is Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota.

CSIS’ Emily Harding discusses her new report Move Over JARVIS, Meet OSCAR, which calls for the Intelligence Community to reap the benefits of artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) capabilities with respect to unclassified cloud capability. In her report, Harding draws from her personal experience as an analyst to identify problems with the Intelligence Community’s existing systems for collecting information, and makes actionable recommendations that will break the logjam and allow the intelligence community to revolutionize open-source intelligence.

Former U.S. Senate candidate and retired Marine Lt. Colonel Amy McGrath joins the podcast to discuss the state of democracy in America.

The American University’s Dr. Cynthia Miller-Idriss joins the podcast to discuss the terrorist threat from within the United States, the January 6 attack on the Capitol and why she believes that preventing violent extremism needs a public health approach.

CSIS’ Dr. Seth Jones joins the podcast to discuss Russia’s potential pathways to invading Ukraine and what the U.S. and NATO can do to discourage it.

International Rescue Committee (IRC) president and CEO David Miliband joins the podcast to discuss the IRC’s Annual Emergency Watchlist report. According to the new report, the IRC finds global “system failure” driving record levels of humanitarian need and that Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Yemen top the list of countries most at risk of deteriorating humanitarian crises in 2022.

In this crossover episode with the CSIS Coronavirus Crisis Update podcast, Brown University’s Dr. Ashish Jha provides his keen insights into the latest on Omicron as well as a reflection on 2021.

CNN politics reporter and editor-at-large Chris Cillizza joins the podcast to talk about Rep. Lauren Boebert’s (R-CO) exchange with Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) and how the politics of today have drifted further towards “performance.” Also discussed, President Biden’s approval ratings, midterm elections, Trump 2024, and more.

Dr. Richard Lessells is among the exceptional South African experts on the front lines of discovering and investigating Omicron in South Africa. Alarm bells went off within the scientific community, as it became clear after just a few days that “an extraordinary number of mutations” are clustered in the key regions in the genome for immune protection and transmissibility. It was a “gut feeling. ” Omicron is highly transmissible, spreading very efficiently in a population with high levels of immunity gained from previous infection and in some cases from vaccination. How long to know just how dangerous Omicron is? It’s “too early to tell.” Lab work is underway to understand whether the virus affects T cells which are central to immune protection against severe disease. Why do we see such an unusual variant in South Africa? One theory, which Omicron may shed light on, is that the SARS-CoV-2 virus finds hosts who are very immune-compromised, persons living with HIV but not on anti-viral therapy. These individuals have difficulty clearing the virus, which permits it to replicate constantly over a very long period. Is this moment a pivot in the pandemic? That depends on whether Omicron significantly sets back vaccine protection, which would be a “step change.” Will this moment shock the world into more concerted global action, superseding the pattern of “vaccine apartheid”? “I remain skeptical.” In the meantime, we have to fight against Omicron being fitted to a politicized narrative: by anti-vaccine groups, to tell the story that vaccines do not work. By others, to argue that there is nothing to worry about, that the virus is becoming less pathogenic, based on anecdotal evidence. Dr. Richard Lessells is an infectious disease physician at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, in Durban, South Africa. He is a member of the Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa, and a researcher at CAPRISA, the Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa.

In this crossover episode with the CSIS Coronavirus Crisis Update Podcast, we asked Cary Funk, Pew Research Center, to make sense of how the pandemic has impacted our society and American opinion as we approach the pandemic’s two years. “It can be confusing.” Polarization now increasingly aligns between the vaccinated versus the unvaccinated, versus simple partisan identity. At the fundamental level, Americans are split over whether Covid-19 is a common problem. Does the “Big Lie” bleed over into the field of public health? “It’s all complicated.” “The political lens” increasingly encompasses so much of public health, accelerating the erosion of public trust and confidence in science, a trend that had already been underway for years. False statements can travel the globe in 48 hours, but knowing the impact is much more difficult. Are we at a turning point, a softening of polarization? “We need to wait and see.” Heightened US international engagement enjoys majority support and has not become politicized. What is the impact of the loss of 757,000 lives on opinion? We have to continue looking at that. Cary Funk is director of science and society research at the Pew Research Center.

Johns Hopkins University professor Dr. Lillianna Mason joins the podcast for a discussion of political polarization in the U.S. and how politics have become central to the identities of many Americans across racial, religious and cultural lines.

CSIS’s Project on Fragility and Mobility Director Erol Yayboke and Human Rights Initiative Director Marti Flacks join the podcast to discuss the Haitian migrant crisis as a microcosm of how climate change, human rights, and national security are increasingly intertwined.

In this crossover episode with the CSIS Coronavirus Crisis Update Podcast, Dr. Leana Wen, Washington Post columnist and CNN analyst joined CSIS’s J. Stephen Morrison and Andrew Schwartz to discuss the current state of Covid in the United States plus her new book, “Lifelines: A Doctor’s Journey in the Fight for Public Health.”

CSIS’s Europe and Eurasia Program director Heather Conley joins the podcast to discuss the German elections and what they mean for Germany and greater Europe’s future as well as its relationship with the United States.

Professor Paul Barrett, deputy director of the New York University Stern Center for Business and Human Rights joins the podcast to discuss his new report, “Fueling the Fire: How Social Media Intensifies U.S. Political Polarization—And What Can Be Done About It.”

CSIS’s Dr. Mike Green joins the podcast to discuss the geopolitical implications of the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal and the fallout with France.