The Truth of the Matter

“We’re in a whole tangled mess…we’ve gotten ourselves into a tangled mess around not just securing our infrastructure, but also around competition for the pieces of our infrastructure.” AI has become a cornerstone of modern defense, economic security, commerce, and more. But without effective cybersecurity strategies, the technology that has helped drive U.S. innovation and productivity could become our Achilles heel. Kemba Walden, president of the Paladin Global Institute and former Acting National Cyber Director, and Devin Lynch, senior director of the Paladin Global Institute and former director in the Office of the National Cyber Director, join the podcast to discuss their new report, “The AI Tech Stack: A Primer for Tech and Cyber Policy,” and the importance of implementing effective security measures and infrastructure around its deployment.

This summer, millions of Americans will head to the beach to beat the heat. But how clean is the water they're swimming in? At many beaches, especially on the East Coast, water quality is rarely tested for bacteria, pollution, and other health hazards that may be dangerous to both beachgoers and the many species that live in marine habitats. While the importance of clean drinking water is a well-known issue, pollution in swimming water has also become a serious public health issue in some areas of the United States, even causing national security issues for Navy SEALs, Border Patrol officers, and more who use these waters. Mara Dias, Water Quality Initiative senior manager at the Surfrider Foundation, joins the podcast to discuss how the Foundation's Blue Water Task Force helps monitor water quality at beaches across the country and the public health implications of reducing contamination.

“I think what happened here is Europeans made a lot of commitments that they don’t have any intention of fulfilling—at least in the near term—and this is all about appeasing President Trump to keep him engaged with the NATO alliance.” At the recent summit in The Hague, Netherlands, NATO allies agreed to spend a target 5 percent of GDP on defense in a win for Donald Trump, who has repeatedly expressed the belief that European NATO allies are not spending enough. Was this a mistake—and can European nations afford to follow through?CSIS’s Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, joins the podcast to discuss what really happened at the NATO summit and how defense spending will impact European economies going forward.

“The word ‘obliteration’ is being used a lot…I think there’s a little more nuance to it.” Intelligence assessments from the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran, and the United States have provided competing accounts of the functionality of Fordow, Iran’s critical uranium refinement site, and the Iranian nuclear program as a whole. The intelligence community still has a lot of blanks to fill in, including the extent of the damage to various Iranian nuclear sites, the state of Iran’s missile arsenal, and how much of a setback this represents for Iran’s nuclear program. CSIS’s Heather Williams, director of the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues, joins the podcast to discuss the uncertain status of Iran’s nuclear program following Operation Midnight Hammer and what we should be watching for next.

“They didn’t understand the essence of Israel, and they are now dead.” Are Iran and regional terrorist groups like Hamas and Hezbollah considering the reality of Israel’s military posture and motivations? Iran may have underestimated Israel’s willingness to launch a surprise attack like the one that started the 12-day war, but with a fragile ceasefire in place, it is unclear whether Tehran’s military calculus has changed. Ambassador Dennis Ross, counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and best known for serving in five U.S. presidential administrations, joins the podcast to discuss whether the war represents a turning point in Israel-Iran relations, if Israel exceeded its traditional defense posture, and how Iran should consider the state of play going forward.

CSIS Missile Threat Program director Tom Karako joins the podcast to assess conflicting reports about the degradation of Iran’s nuclear and missile program and how soon Iran may be able to rebuild.

CSIS’s Jon Alterman, a longtime Middle East scholar and geopolitical expert, joins the podcast to discuss potential outcomes from Israel and Iran’s 12-day war and shaky ceasefire. Key question: Does the conflict and ceasefire make the world a safer place and reduce nuclear proliferation, or does it possibly increase nuclear proliferation?

CSIS Middle East Program Director Mona Yacoubian joins the podcast to discuss Monday’s strike by Iran on Al Udeid Air Base, the largest American military installation in the Middle East and the broader strategic implications of the conflict.

In this cross over episode, Mariana and Andrew are joined by Gopi Kallayil, Google’s Chief Business Strategist for AI, to explore what he calls “the most profound technology ever created by human beings.” Gopi shares how AI’s evolution is reshaping industries while amplifying human cognition and creativity. They discuss the tightrope between AI’s promise and risks, including the need for new “checks and balances” and emerging defenses against malicious AI. Gopi offers a nuanced take on AI’s impact on jobs, the skills future generations need, and why uniquely human traits will always matter. He also reflects on AI’s explosive rise in public awareness and the trillions in economic value it could unlock—offering an optimistic vision of a smarter, more prosperous world

CSIS’s Norm Roule, a former senior U.S. intelligence officer for the Middle East joins the podcast to discuss how conflict with Iran might end, what regime change could look like, the wider implications for the United States and the region and more.

CSIS’s Eliot A. Cohen, former dean of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and former councilor to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice joins the podcast to discuss Israel’s strategic objectives, potential regime change in Iran and what Israel’s military operation indicates for the future of warfare.

"This is easily once of the biggest ballistic missile and ballistic missile defense engagements in history, and it is truly momentous in terms of the overall context and the overall posture that Israel is taking." Israel and Iran have been at war since June 13, with each country firing hundreds of ballistic missiles in just a few days. Iran's defense enterprise is severely weakened following Israel's huge initial attack, but Israel lacks the capability to completely destroy Iran's hardened nuclear targets, at a time when the United Nations' nuclear watchdog warned that Iran could be as close as three days away from being able to assemble a nuclear weapon. CSIS's Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project and senior fellow in the Defense and Security Department, joins the podcast to discuss the Israel-Iran conflict—who's winning, who's losing, whether the United States will get involved, and what we should be looking for next.

CSIS’ Seth Jones, Emily Harding and Ben Jensen join the podcast to discuss Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, leadership and other targets.

"The spectrum is a scarce national resource...it is absolutely a defense priority." Much of the spectrum has been auctioned off for commercial use, sparking a fierce debate on Capitol Hill: How can we balance spectrum use between commercial and national defense needs? While fast telecommunications is crucial to our economy, leaving spectrum space for military radar is also key for U.S. homeland security and intelligence. Tom Karako, director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project, joins the podcast to discuss the intersection of spectrum policy and defense and whether spectrum can be effectively shared between commercial and defense needs.

“I do believe we’re in a strategic competition. I believe it’s fine to describe it that way analytically. But if it’s a competition that is purely strategic, what’s the goal? What’s the endpoint?” U.S. strategic competition with China is a cornerstone of our Indo-Pacific policy. However, this suggests that the U.S.-China relationship is always a zero-sum game when the reality is much more complicated. Dr. Tom Christensen, Columbia University professor, former State Department official, and new CSIS Pritzker Chair, joins the podcast to discuss U.S. strategic competition with China and how we should reframe our thinking about it.

“The stark reality is that the Russians really aren’t doing well on the battlefield, and their economy is also in pretty tough shape.” CSIS experts examined several indicators of Russia’s battlefield performance and found that it has been performing poorly since January 2024. Russia’s rate of advance on some fronts has been as slow as just 50 meters per day—the slowest rate since World War II. It has also only seized around 5,000 square kilometers, less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory, over the same time period. Russia is also losing equipment at a significantly higher rate than Ukraine, and is nearing the 1 million casualty mark by summer 2025, including 250,000 fatalities—more than five times the number of fatalities in all Russian and Soviet wars between World War II and January 2022. Seth G. Jones, director of the CSIS Defense and Security Department and Harold Brown Chair, joins the podcast to discuss the state of the war in Ukraine and break down the data on Russia’s battlefield performance, which is included in an upcoming CSIS report.

“Back in 2015, about $12.8 billion, or about 7.6 percent of DOD’s modernization, went to missile defense of some kind. Today it’s up to $25.5 billion, and 8.2 percent of DOD’s modernization budget.” As hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles become increasingly more common on the battlefield, focusing on the full spectrum of missile threats is crucial, especially as the missile threat from China and Russia grows. Developing next-generation missile defense capabilities like space-based interceptors and smart procurement and manufacturing strategies will make or break our ability to successfully build the Golden Dome. Tom Karako, director of the CSIS Missile Defense Project and senior fellow in the CSIS Defense and Security Department, joins the podcast to discuss the development of the Golden Dome and how missile defense has evolved over the last decade.

“The Gulf is an absolutely critical player in critical minerals, because they’re all working on their goal of diversifying away from a reliance on oil…Each of these countries has adopted critical minerals as a central priority for their own economic development agenda, and that mirrors President Trump’s prioritization of minerals.” Minerals collaboration is already growing between the United States and Middle Eastern nations, including co-owned mining companies and high-level cooperation agreements. As countries like Saudi Arabia make development investments in emerging markets, these partnerships could become more important than ever. Gracelin Baskaran, director of the CSIS Critical Minerals Security Program, joins the podcast to discuss potential minerals deals with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar during President Trump’s trip to the Middle East.

“The economic costs were beginning to become much more obvious—not just in terms of the market volatility, but potential shortages, inflation, the rare earths restrictions that the Chinese imposed. Those were going to bite soon.” On May 12, the White House announced a 90-day pause in the trade war between the United States and China and a significant reduction in tariffs following talks in Geneva. However, the impacts of the tariffs are already being felt by American consumers. Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and director of the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, and Philip Luck, director of the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, join the podcast to discuss the suspension in trade measures and what might come next.

“Modern war is almost a new missile age.” Missiles have played a crucial role in the Russia-Ukraine war, with Russia beginning to send mass missile salvos at command and control nodes, political centers, and even civilian targets. The CSIS Futures Lab has launched an innovative new project, the Russian Firepower Strike Tracker, that uses AI and data analysis to determine the success of these attacks and ways for Ukraine to fight back.CSIS’s Benjamin Jensen, director of the CSIS Futures Lab and senior fellow in the CSIS Defense and Security Department, joins the podcast to discuss the CSIS Russian Firepower Strike Tracker and how to quantify wartime tactics. Learn more about the tracker here: https://www.csis.org/programs/futures-lab/projects/russian-firepower-strike-tracker-analyzing-missile-attacks-ukraine

CSIS’s Charles Edel joins the podcast to discuss the Australian elections and what it means for the Trump administration and the United States.

CSIS’ Emily Harding joins the podcast to discuss observations from her recent visit to Ukraine including drone warfare, the state of the battlefield, U.S. and European support as well as the mining deal forged by President Trump and President Zelensky.

CSIS’s Phil Luck joins the podcast to discuss the U.S. national debt, why it matters and what the Trump administration and Congress can do to address it.

CSIS’s Ryan Berg joins the podcast to discuss the U.S. strategic interests in the Panama Canal, competition with China and potential outcomes.

"There's some real concern that if U.S. companies back away from selling in China, Chinese companies like Huawei could become dominant in this space and outsell us all over the world, which then hurts our competitiveness." China and the United States have quickly taken the lead in the global AI race, each acting as a hub for innovation in its own hemisphere. Which country comes out on top could be determined by how the White House shapes the future of U.S. AI policy. Josh Geltzer, former deputy White House counsel under President Biden and former legal advisor to the National Security Council, joins the podcast to discuss he similarities and differences between the Biden and Trump administrations' approaches to AI policy. He also explains the aspects of the global tech race that the federal government is most concerned about, including keeping the U.S. private sector at the forefront of AI innovation, how the government can use this technology both aggressively and responsively, and preventing the most advanced technologies from getting into the hands of adversaries.

“This is not good for China’s economy, but they have staying power, and I don’t see them backing down.” While the pandemic years were tough on China’s economy, the country has recently recovered financially, recording a 5 percent growth rate last year. China is also becoming increasingly less dependent on exports to the United States and is diversifying investments in Southeast Asia, putting it in a good position to weather the storm of U.S. tariffs. Scott Kennedy, CSIS senior adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics, joins the podcast to discuss the latest in the U.S.-China trade war, including China’s technological capabilities, new export controls, and the possibility of future decoupling.

"The President's 'Liberation Day' really shakes the foundation of the current system in the auto industry...if these tariffs stay on for any length of time, they could lead to a fundamental reordering of the U.S. market." The slate of tariffs recently announced by the White House will likely lead to rising costs for cars in the United States, especially for smaller and lower-priced vehicles. Some foreign auto makers are already pausing shipments to the United States, which also curtails choices for consumers. However, in the long term, the tariffs could be good for U.S. manufacturing if executed right. Dr. Monica Gorman, special assistant to President Biden for manufacturing and industrial policy and former deputy assistant secretary of commerce for manufacturing, joins the podcast to discuss the impact of President Trump's tariffs on cars and how uncertainty can lead to market crisis.

CSIS’s Gracelin Baskaran joins the podcast to discuss China’s halt of critical minerals to the United States. In addition to consumer products, the Pentagon and defense contractors are heavily reliant on magnets and rare earth minerals mined or processed in China. Baskaran discusses the impact of this decision and more.

“We are in the Golden Age of digital assets.” More Americans than ever are investing in cryptocurrencies and digital assets, keeping the United States dominant in blockchain technologies. However, given market volatility and the decentralized nature of these assets, some lack confidence in dollar-denominated payment stablecoins as a viable investment. Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI) joins the podcast to discuss the STABLE Act, a piece of legislation he introduced with Rep. French Hill (R-AR) to support innovation and stability in the stablecoin space, protect consumers, and encourage the development of digital asset technologies.

In this special crossover episode with CSIS podcast, The Trade Guys, Bill Reinsch and Scott Miller unpack the latest news about the impacts of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs and how markets, trading partners, and consumers will respond.

Stagwell CEO and longtime pollster/strategist talks about his latest Harvard CAPS/Harris poll findings plus a discussion about the future of news.

CSIS’ Victor Cha joins the podcast to discuss South Korea’s “Quiet Crisis” of leadership and the vacuum in wake of President Yoon’s impeachment, plus, the impact of President Trump’s tariffs while the ROK seeks to elect its next leader over the next two months.

In this special crossover episode with CSIS podcast, The Trade Guys, Bill Reinsch and Andrew give their first takes on the April 2 tariff announcements from the White House.

CSIS’s Navin Girishankar joins the podcast to discuss the new world order President Trump has created with his latest tariff announcement.

"Ukraine is sort of a laboratory for what the future of warfare across the planet could look like." The war in Ukraine has caused rapid military innovation since Russia's invasion over three years ago, from military-commercial integration to collaboration with the civil sector to the production of cheap, small attritable drones. But most of all, Ukraine's military is at the forefront of waging AI-enabled autonomous warfare. Kateryna Bondar, fellow in the CSIS Wadhwani AI Center, recently published a new report on Ukraine's rapidly evolving capabilities in autonomous aerial systems. She joins the podcast to discuss how Ukraine is using AI-driven unmanned systems to reduce direct warfighter involvement while enhancing combat effectiveness. Read the new report: https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukraines-future-vision-and-current-capabilities-waging-ai-enabled-autonomous-warfare

In this special episode of The Truth of the Matter, Andrew is joined by CSIS's Philip Luck, director of the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business, to discuss the new tariffs set to take effect on April 2 and their impact on Americans and the global economy.

“If you’re a reporter in Beijing right now, you have to assume that the Chinese government knows every source you’re meeting with, that they know every interview you’re going to do.” When Jane Perlez worked as the New York Times bureau chief in Beijing, she supervised 15 journalists. Now, the Times has only two journalists permanently based in China—and only 20 American journalists remain in the country. Jane Perlez, who spent 7 years reporting in China for the Times and is now the host of “Face-Off: The U.S. vs China,” joins the podcast to discuss the journalism climate in China right now and how the U.S.-China political-economic relationship has evolved since COVID and President Trump’s re-election.

Water is essential to global society, for everything from drinking and growing food to producing energy and cultural practices. 40 percent of the world’s workforce works in sectors that rely on water, and water counts for $58 trillion in global economic output each year. But while the industrialized world can take water access for granted, water resources around the world are increasingly under stress. Billions of people lack access to safely managed sanitation systems and drinking water, and as this critical resource grows increasingly scarce, it is becoming a trigger for, weapon in, and casualty of global conflicts. CSIS’s David Michel, senior fellow for water security in the CSIS Global Food and Water Security Program, joins the podcast to discuss global water conflict and the risks that water security poses to U.S. geopolitical and economic interests. Listen to Hidden Depths, a new podcast from the CSIS Global Food and Water Security Program, here: https://www.csis.org/podcasts/hidden-depths

Russia poses several types of threats to Western powers. In the conventional sphere, the invasion of Ukraine is a direct threat to European countries. But below the threshold of conventional war, Russia's military intelligence directorate is also carrying out "active measures," an irregular warfare campaign of sabotage and subversion against Western countries that includes the use of explosive and incendiary devices, cyberattacks, and the use of blunt or edged instruments to damage critical infrastructure like undersea cables. The CSIS Defense and Security Department compiled a database of these attacks to analyze Russia's ongoing "shadow war" against the West. CSIS's Seth Jones, president of the CSIS Defense and Security Department, joins the podcast to discuss their findings. Read the full analysis by Seth Jones here: https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-shadow-war-against-west

Former CIA Middle East expert Norman Roule joins the podcast to discuss President Trump’s muscular approach to the Houthis in Yemen and Hamas in Gaza.

“While AI is digital in nature, the binding constraint is physical.” While many think of the race for AI dominance as who can develop the best model, that’s only one piece of the puzzle. Frontier models, data centers, leading-edge chips, energy sources, and digital networks all form the full stack of AI leadership—and any one of them could be a point of failure. CSIS’s Navin Girishankar, president of the CSIS Economic Security and Technology Department, and Joseph Majkut, director of the CSIS Energy Security and Climate Change program, join the podcast to discuss their new research on how to secure U.S. full stack leadership in AI, especially expanding energy production to power future AI needs. Read CSIS’s latest research on full stack AI leadership here: https://www.csis.org/analysis/securing-full-stack-us-leadership-ai

The United States is experiencing the worst measles outbreak in 30 years and the highest rate of contraction in the past six years after nearly eradicating the disease. Cases have surged in communities with low immunization coverage, raising concerns about further transmission. Hospitals are reporting an increase in severe cases, particularly among young children and immunocompromised individuals. Experts urge immediate action, emphasizing that vaccination remains the most effective defense against the highly contagious virus. CSIS’s J. Stephen Morrison joins the podcast to discuss the outbreak and the risks associated with it. Events: Increasing Measles Vaccination Coverage to Improve Global Health Security

Following meetings with European diplomats in Brussels and Paris, CSIS’s Max Bergmann joins the podcast to discuss a possible United States divorce from our allies in Europe. As geopolitical tensions rise and Washington shifts its strategic focus toward the Indo-Pacific, European leaders question the long-term reliability of U.S. commitments to NATO and regional security. Economic disputes, defense spending disagreements, and differing approaches to Russia and China have further widened the gap between the transatlantic allies. Background Reading: Why It's Time to Reconsider a European Army Events: U.S. Allies and Partners Under the Trump Administration

CSIS’s Seth Jones, director of the CSIS Defense and Security Department, joins the podcast to discuss the impact of stopping U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine, whether European countries can fill the gap, and how this could affect peace negotiations. They also unpack the fallout from last week’s dramatic Trump-Zelensky meeting and how it could impact the chances of the minerals deal or a peace agreement favorable to Ukraine, as well as the key difference between economic and security guarantees from the United States to Ukraine. Seth also explains how a U.S.-Russia relationship could shift the global order and previews a new CSIS report on malicious activities from Russian military intelligence in Europe that have affected the war. Events: Russia’s War in Ukraine and the Prospects for Peace Deterring Russia: U.S. Military Posture in Europe

Matthew Pearl, director of the CSIS Strategic Technologies Program, joins the podcast to discuss all things spectrum, including his recent testimony before the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee on spectrum policy, how spectrum impacts our national security, actions that Congress and the administration can take to restore U.S spectrum leadership, spectrum’s impact on AI innovation, and more. Read or watch Matthew Pearl’s recent congressional testimony on spectrum: https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-spectrum-auction-delays-give-china-edge-and-cost-us-jobs

CSIS’s Steve Morrison and Caitlin Welsh join the podcast to discuss the fallout from Vice President JD Vance's controversial speech at the Munich Security Conference. European leaders, particularly in Germany, were outraged by his criticism of the far-right party AfD and his refusal to meet with Chancellor Scholz. They also dive into the broader implications for NATO, the Transatlantic Alliance, and the future of U.S.-European relations, especially as the U.S. shifts toward direct negotiations with Russia, sidelining European allies. The conversation also explores the critical issues of food security, climate change, and health security, highlighting the absence of U.S. leadership and the growing importance of European unity. We reflect on the long-term impact of these developments on global stability and security. Guests: J. Stephen Morrison - Senior Vice President and Director, Global Health Policy Center, CSIS Caitlin Welsh - Director, Global Food and Water Security Program, CSIS

CSIS’s Gracelin Baskaran, Director of the Critical Minerals and Security Program, joins the podcast to break down the recent U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal and its implications for global resource security. They discuss why Ukraine agreed to the deal without security guarantees, the risks this poses for private investment, and the broader geopolitical stakes. Baskaran also draws comparisons to China's mineral deals in the Democratic Republic of Congo and highlights the urgency of securing U.S. supply chains. Plus, a look at her upcoming book, Critical Minerals in the Future of the U.S. Economy, and what it means for national security. Background Reading: https://www.csis.org/analysis/critical-minerals-and-future-us-economy

CSIS’s Erin Murphy, deputy director of the CSIS Chair on India and Emerging Asia Economics, joins the podcast to discuss why subsea cables are so important to global security, the global actors most likely to sabotage these cables, how they play into great power competition with China, and policy recommendations to mitigate these threats.

CSIS’s Max Bergmann, director of the CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program, joins the podcast to discuss the current state of European security, the potential for a U.S.-Europe tech war, how Ukraine negotiations might evolve, and more. Read or listen to Max Bergmann’s new report, The Transatlantic Alliance in the Age of Trump: The Coming Collisions, here: https://www.csis.org/analysis/transatlantic-alliance-age-trump-coming-collisions

Ann Lee, co-founder and CEO of Community Organized Relief Effort (CORE Response), joins the podcast to discuss California’s risk of wildfires, CORE’s work to support those impacted by the fires, and how we can learn from relief efforts from past natural disasters to build resilience.