The Trialogue

Federico Petroni, senior analyst at Limes, Italy's leading geopolitical journal, joins the Trialogue to discuss Europe’s anger over the U.S. attack on Iran, NATO’s fraught future, Italy’s Mediterranean strategy, and its regional rivalries with France and Turkey, Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Timestamps: 00:04:01 How the Iran War is Hitting Italy 00:11:16 NATO's Uncertain Future 00:15:30 Why Europe is Risking a Transatlantic Crisis 00:20:22 NATO's Real Purpose: Keeping Europe's Peace 00:22:15 Italy's Defense Priorities 00:24:39 Italy and the American Empire 00:28:44 The Libya Intervention and Its Aftermath 00:33:16 Turkey: Rival, Partner, or Both? 00:38:13 Italy's Mediterranean Strategy 00:47:27 Italy, China, and the Limits of Economic Openness Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Zhao Hai, Director of the International Politics Program in the National Institute for Global Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, returns to the Trialogue to discuss the impact of the US-Israeli war with Iran, the state of US-China trade relations, the future of international institutions, and the prospects of stabilizing cross-strait relations, among other subjects. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Timestamps: 00:01:22 Beijing's View on the U.S. War with Iran 00:06:09 China's Interests in the Middle East 00:13:06 China's Regional Strategy Going Forward 00:20:15 State of U.S.-China Economic Relations 00:41:43 The Taiwan Question 00:51:32 Ukraine Peace Prospects and China's Role 00:55:59 China-Europe Relations and the Atlantic Rift Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mathew Burrows, program lead of the Stimson Center's Strategic Foresight Hub, returns to the podcast for a forward-looking conversation. We discuss global demographic decline, the energy transition, the promises and limits of AI, the future of the transatlantic relationship, and China's role in a multipolar world. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Timestamps: 00:02:18 Demographics & the Aging World 00:06:02 AI, Automation, and the Labor Question 00:08:15 Can Population Decline Be Reversed? 00:12:40 Aging, Housing, and Intergenerational Tensions 00:15:38 Energy Transition, Renewables, and Nuclear 00:19:43 AI, Inequality, and the Future of Work 00:25:23 The Human Role in an Automated Economy 00:29:05 The Future of the Transatlantic Relationship 00:33:27 Europe Without the American Umbrella 00:42:01 China and the Multipolar World 00:47:07 Free-Floating Alignments and Global Order 00:50:41 Why Greater Eurasia May Be Best Positioned Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative magazine, joins the Trialogue to discuss the evolution of anti-interventionist thought on the American right. In this conversation we cover the origins of American empire, the extent of U.S. global commitments, the future of NATO, competition with China, and the strategic direction of U.S. foreign policy in Trump’s second term. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes! *The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Timestamps: 00:01:37 The Origins of The American Conservative and Anti-Interventionist Conservatism 00:04:30 From Iraq War Dissent to “America First” 00:09:07 American Empire, NATO, and the Case for Retrenchment 00:29:19 Russia, Iran, and the Limits of Threat Inflation 00:38:08 China as a Peer Competitor and Managing Great-Power Competition 00:45:18 Grading Trump’s Second Term: Wars, Trade, and Immigration Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The expiration of New Start on February 5 marks the end of over half a century of bilateral efforts to advance strategic arms control. On February 3, the Stimson Center and the Oppenheimer Project convened leading nuclear experts from the US and Russia to imagine what comes next. The American speakers were Scott Sagan (Stanford University), Rita Guenther (The National Academies), and Matthew Bunn (Harvard Kennedy School). The Russian side was represented by Feodor Voitolovsky (Institute of World Economy and International Relations), Dmitry Stefanovich (Institute of World Economy and International Relations), and Anton Khlopkov (Center for Energy and Security Studies). This episode was recorded as a live online event.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps: 00:02:20 Russia’s Position on New START00:10:50 Extending New START Limits00:16:26 Technology and Strategic Stability00:21:09 Track Two Dialogues00:24:54 NPT Review Conference and Iran00:28:51 Russia on Iran and North Korea00:38:40 Verification and Data Exchange After New START00:45:31 New Russian Nuclear Systems01:03:29 Future of Arms Control Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs, returns to the Trialogue at the start of an already-eventful year to take stock of Russian strategy amid dramatic U.S. intervention in Venezuela, crisis in Iran, and negotiations over the future of Ukraine.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps: 00:01:23 – Reaction to Trump Corollary to Monroe Doctrine00:08:25 – The Case of Venezuela00:16:02 – Possible U.S. Intervention in Iran00:23:56 – A Year of Trump 2.000:28:44 – The Role of Europe00:32:28 – Russian Objectives in Ukraine00:49:44 – Balancing US-Russia Relations & Ukraine War Aims00:55:55 – World Order in 10 Years Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the PLA and a senior fellow in the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, returns to the Trialogue to discuss China’s calculations about recent events, including the release of the U.S. National Security Strategy, tense Sino-Japanese relations, the situation in Taiwan, and negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps: 00:01:53 – First Year of Trump 2.000:05:59 – The Role of Tariffs00:11:36 – Beijing’s Response to U.S. National Security Strategy00:16:12 – Trump’s Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine00:19:52 – Current Sino-Japanese Relations00:29:22 – Strategy on Taiwan00:33:12 – Ukraine War Negotiations00:37:49 – China’s Relationship with the EU00:42:53 – Looking to the AI Future Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mike Kuiken and Josh Hodges, two commissioners on the congressionally appointed US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, join us to discuss the recommendations of the Commission’s 2025 annual report and the state of US-China relations more broadly.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps: 00:01:18 What is the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission?00:04:39 The China Problem00:14:17 A Challenge to the Democratic World?00:17:41 The Axis of Autocracy00:26:33 Biden-Era Framework00:31:52 Policy Recommendations00:47:42 Necessary International Partnerships Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Glenn Diesen, professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway and host of the Greater Eurasia Podcast, joins us to discuss the current state of affairs in Europe, including the West’s approach to the war in Ukraine, the future of integration on the continent, and the militarization of Scandinavia. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps: 00:01:23 Glenn Diesen’s Background00:03:14 Interest in Russia00:10:23 Return to Norway and Analytical Perspective00:14:22 What is Scandinavia?00:15:59 From Neutrality to NATO00:22:47 The U.S. Position00:27:38 The Future of Europe00:38:28 Will the EU Survive?00:43:52 Nord Stream00:48:44 Competition in the Arctic00:55:25 An Opening for China in Europe? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mathew Burrows, program lead of the Stimson Center’s Strategic Foresight Hub, joins us to discuss his career in the CIA and the National Intelligence Council, where he was the lead author of Global Trends, a non-classified report released every four years as an aid to incoming administrations. We also discuss transformative global events of recent decades, the mechanics of predicting trends, and what policymakers often get wrong in confronting the world. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps: 00:1:36 Mathew Burrows’ Early Biography00:5:03 A Job at the CIA00:14:12 The Collapse of the Communist Bloc00:16:41 Move to the National Intelligence Council00:22:20 9/11 and the Intelligence Community00:27:21 Snowden Saga00:28:54 Global Trends00:31:41 China Prescience00:39:16 Trump Admin. & Death of Global Trends00:48:09 Enter the Policymakers Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

John Mearsheimer, world-renowned scholar of international relations, joins us to discuss the state of play in the Middle East, East Asia, and Eastern Europe. We also examine the relationship between realism and morality, the nature of the China threat, and the origins of “offshore balancing.” Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Leonard Benardo, Senior Vice President at the Open Society Foundations, joins us to discuss OSF’s emergence and evolution, defining values of open societies, and heterodox thinking for turbulent times.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps:01:29 – Lenny Benardo’s Biography05:20 – Origins of OSF’s Name and Mission09:23 – The “Wild East” and OSF’s Work in the Former Soviet Union16:55 – OSF’s Approach to Russia, Post-Soviet States, and Eastern Europe18:53 – Conceptualizing Human Rights22:06 – Western Foundations, Domestic Politics, and the Case of Hungary25:01 – Tensions Between Nationalism and Liberal Universalism30:14 – Dynamics of EU Expansion36:36 – “Open Society” as a Concept Today38:42 – Ideas Versus Action47:45 – Lessons Learned for Approaching China50:43 – Future of Transatlantic Relationship54:28 – The Status of American Empire Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Zhao Long, Deputy Director of the Institute for Global Strategic and Security Studies in Shanghai, returns to the Trialogue to discuss Beijing’s perspective on a slew of recent high-profile summits, in the context of China’s complex relations with Russia, the United States, India, and North Korea. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps:01:13 – Beijing’s Take on Alaska Summit07:38 – China as a Guarantor in Ukraine?11:54 – SCO Summit & China-India Relations17:05 – SCO’s Role & Non-Western Banks23:17 – Russian Energy & Power of Siberia 230:11 – Putin, Xi & Kim Meet on Victory Day36:58 – A Series of Trilateral Relationships Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Samuel Moyn, the Chancellor Kent Professor of Law and History at Yale University, joins us to discuss the philosophical underpinnings of liberalism, its role in international relations, and the possibility of a multipolar liberal order emerging in a period of U.S. decline.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps:01:15: The Liberal Order in Decline03:47: Features of Liberalism08:51: Liberalism in International Relations11:15: The Intellectuals’ Abandonment of Liberalism16:58: The Roots of Neoconservatism20:43: Liberal Internationalists, Human Rights, and Intervention 27:41: Decolonization as a Liberal Project32:41: A Coming Liberal Multipolar Order?43:35: The EU’s Position in the Emerging Order Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Jana Kobzova, Director of the European Security Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations and former foreign policy adviser to the president of Slovakia, joins us to discuss the European perspective on the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, the Washington meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and top European leaders, and the future of the war in Ukraine.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps:04:21 Domestic Dynamics in Ukraine and Anti-Corruption Agencies11:28 Europe’s Reaction to Shifts in U.S. Policy Under Trump17:00 Origins of Alaska Summit20:24 European Red Lines27:42 Europe’s Take on Alaska Summit Outcomes30:03 European Shock Over Trump’s U-Turn on Ceasefire37:57 Any Evolution in Ukrainian and Russian Positions?43:02 Trump Administration’s Objectives48:05 European Goals: What is the Alternative to Russia’s Proposals?57:13 Possibility of Putin-Zelensky Meeting Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, joins us to discuss the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska and Russia’s expectations for a settlement in Ukraine.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps:01:30 US-Russia relations heading into the summit03:26 Limits to future US-Russia cooperation08:42 Failure of American pressure on India, China, Brazil13:42 Witkoff’s visit to Moscow17:07 Why Alaska?19:31 Security guarantees35:58 Russia-NATO38:30 Likelihood of a Putin-Zelensky meeting?43:48 EU membership for Ukraine?47:24 “Denazification" Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Victoria Panova, Vice Rector of HSE and Head of Russia’s BRICS Expert Council, joins us to discuss the history of BRICS, Russia’s attitude toward the association, and the differences between BRICS and other international formats, such as the G7 and the G20.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps:02:01 Russia and the G7/G808:35 Origins of BRICS09:50 Primakov and the idea of RIC16:36 First meetings of BRIC in Russia18:52 Adding South Africa to BRICS21:34 China-India tensions24:04 Changes in BRICS over the last 15 years29:27 Global South, Global East, Global Majority?31:31 How has the Ukraine war changed BRICS?33:36 BRICS and the West44:23 Could the US join BRICS?45:55 BRICS expansion Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Curtis Yarvin returns to discuss the logic of the “empire of love” and the possibilities of an American “perestroika.” He calls on Washington to shutter its foreign embassies, withdraw from the UN, and dissolve the transatlantic relationship.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps:01:38 What is the American Empire?03:12 The centrality of the State Department06:10 The significance of withdrawing from the UN08:10 Eliminate US embassies12:37 Recentering the national interest14:10 Afghanistan as a self-licking ice cream cone16:03 The importance of dominating outer space18:41 End the pursuit of global order19:52 We don’t care about your conflicts22:23 Trade surpluses as the outdated assumption of the “empire of love”25:10 Parallels with perestroika30:30 Dissolve the transatlantic relationship Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Xiang Lanxin, Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center, joins us to discuss Trumpian “kayfabe,” the possibility of a grand bargain over Taiwan, and the US-Russia-China “grand strategic triangle,” among other subjects.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps:01:27 China’s optimistic view of Trump 203:26 The promise of Trump 106:25 Danger during the Biden years12:06 Trumpism as WWE14:42 Trade negotiations17:03 Grand bargain over Taiwan23:52 Trump’s threat of 100% “secondary tariffs”25:31 Iran-Israel27:25 The US-Russia-China “grand strategic triangle”31:15 China-EU relations44:33 Modern-day McCarthyism48:17 China doesn’t want to rule the world Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Sunjoy Joshi, Chairman of India’s Observer Research Foundation, joins us to discuss Indian philosophy, subtleties of the subcontinent, and India’s relations with the US, China, and Russia.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps:01:29 What is the Observer Research Foundation?05:21 Joshi’s government service05:40 India’s vision of the world11:50 The subcontinent22:41 India-China27:48 India-USA43:57 India-Russia52:57 BRICS Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Curtis Yarvin joins us to discuss the Anglo-American “empire of love,” the bohemian libertines of the ancien regime, Putin’s relative weakness, Xi’s advantages over Mamdani, and populism’s last chance.Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify to stay updated with the latest episodes!*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps:00:55 Alt-right? New Right? Modern Right?02:36 Brief biography06:26 From Westphalian order to Empire of Love09:22 The tragedy of the French Revolution11:04 Liberalism as an instrument of Anglo empire17:55 Yarvin’s communist grandparents20:51 Rebooting the US23:00 The problem with populism31:43 The potential strength of monarchy34:41 Authority, popularity and prestige40:30 The American Revolution is no longer sacred43:08 Populism has one shot Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Samuel Charap, Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy at RAND, joins us to discuss US policy toward Russia since 2008, the war in Ukraine, and the prospects of a settlement.*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps:00:40 How did you get interested in Russia?01:59 US-Russia relations since 200811:05 EU-Russia relations15:41 The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine18:32 The Biden administration’s Ukraine policy 25:27 Should we have tried to negotiate sooner?27:21 Has Trump made a deal more likely?30:01 Is there a window for a deal in the fall?33:16 How should negotiations be structured?37:42 How far apart are US and Russian positions?40:44 How to best combine carrots and sticks44:04 Prospects of US-Russia normalization Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Maksim Suchkov, Director of the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO University in Moscow, joins us to discuss direct Russia-Ukraine talks, US-Russia relations, and Russia’s own “revolution of common sense”.*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.Time Stamps:01:08 Evaluate the Russia-Ukraine talks and the Trump-Putin phone call03:17 Why does Russia oppose an immediate ceasefire?08:08 What are Russia’s core objectives?10:54 What kind of military caps does the Kremlin want to put on Kyiv?13:56 Three scenarios for US policy19:43 Russian and Chinese perspectives on Europe23:05 Russia as a conservative “civilization-state”26:00 A positive US-Russia bilateral agenda35:27 How long will the Trump movement last?42:40 Ukraine v US-Russia normalization45:51 What kind of Europe does Russia want?51:46 Predictions for the summer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What is a foreign policy of restraint? Are the Anglosphere and Western Hemisphere key to American interests? Will the transatlantic alliance endure? Do Russia or China pose substantial threats to the United States? Time Stamps:01:38 What is the restraint movement in US foreign policy?06:28 Is military overextension a product of liberal internationalism?12:35 Restraint as a function of generational turnover14:39 What do restrainers want in positive terms?16:49 Progressive and nationalist visions of restraint 19:27 What is the influence of your Scottish origins?20:42 A comparison of the British and American empires23:10 The Soviet and Russian threat?26:52 Advancing the US national interest as a Scot29:06 The Anglosphere33:08 A hemispheric foreign policy36:46 Europe in or out?40:44 Ukraine54:42 China1:02:12 Multipolarity*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Da Wei, Director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, joins us to discuss tariffs, the prospects of a trade deal, Russia’s global role, and the coming multipolar order. Time Stamps:00:53 Was China prepared for Trump’s tariffs?02:55 Does Washington want to decouple from China or rebalance trade?08:49 Is the US improvising or following a plan?11:57 What can China do to influence US policy?15:49 Can China invest in the US? 20:46 Increasing domestic consumption in China30:25 Can trade and Taiwan be linked?35:20 Russia’s position in the world43:26 What will multipolarity look like?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Robert Agee, President of AmCham Russia, joins us to discuss American business in Russia since the 90s, who left and how after the start of the war in Ukraine, who suffered and benefited from Western sanctions, and the outlook for American (and Chinese) business in Russia going forward.Time Stamps:00:45 What is AmCham?02:29 How did you end up at Xerox in Russia in the 90s?04:58 American business in Russia until 202211:09 What businesses left after the start of the war and how?21:12 Who benefited from the departure of Western companies?25:11 The Chinese takeover of the Russian automotive sector29:48 Business under sanctions35:17 How changes should be made to US sanctions?40:36 Is the Russian market actually all that enticing?44:13 Should we let China dominate the Russian market?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Alexander Dynkin and Feodor Voitolovsky, President and Director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations at the Russian Academy of Sciences, join us to discuss their return to Washington, the war in Ukraine, and Sino-Russian relations, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:59 Returning to Washington for the first time since 201903:28 Will US-Russia relations improve under Trump?09:39 The possibility of three-way strategic arms control among the US, Russia, and China11:45 The future of bilateral US-Russia strategic arms control15:00 The war in Ukraine19:43 “Denazification” and Russian historical memory23:18 Russia’s biggest mistake in Ukraine25:46 Likelihood of future Russia-Ukraine reconciliation29:57 Humanitarian issues related to a Ukrainian settlement31:25 History of national borders in the former Russian empire34:51 Sino-Russian relations*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This episode is a recording of a live event held online on April 8. Lanxin Xiang, Andrey Kortunov, and Emma Ashford joined me to discuss the state of theUS-Russia-China trilateral relationship.*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Reinhard Krumm of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung joins us to discuss Germany’s reversal on Russia and a new American Ostpolitik.Time Stamps:00:54 What is the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung?02:00 How was Vance’s Munich speech received in Germany?06:49 What is the future of the trans-Atlantic relationship?16:45 Is Germany sovereign?21:40 Nord Stream26:17 German Ostpolitik since the 60s31:23 Maidan and the Minsk agreements39:22 Can Germany negotiate with Russia?48:39 How real is the Russian threat to Europe?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Writer Christopher Caldwell joins us to discuss the legacy of Ronald Reagan, the rise of a “New Right,” and the fate of the West.Time Stamps:00:56 What is the New Right?12:53 Revisiting Reagan’s legacy17:24 Trump’s revolution20:43 US foreign policy since Reagan25:55 Whither the West33:43 Immigration in Europe and the US38:10 Russia and China42:16 The limits of American autarchy?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Zhao Long, Deputy Director of the Institute for Global Strategic and Security Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies. We discuss the prospects of the US splitting Russia from China and China peeling Europe away from the US, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:55 Is Beijing worried about a US-Russia rapprochement?24:36 Can China profit from a transatlantic rift?34:24 What part will China play in a Ukraine settlement?40:22 What lessons did Beijing draw from the Trump-Zelensky spat in the Oval Office?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. Time Stamps:01:48 Studying sanctions since 201603:27 Nord Stream and the abrupt change in European attitudes after February 20226:22 Western companies leaving (and returning) to Russia after February 20228:52 Inability of both Western and Russian experts to correctly predict the trajectory of the Russian economy after the application of sanctions13:40 “We started to pivot to the East before it was fashionable”16:57 Sanctions don’t work if third countries don’t cooperate21:23 The future of sanctions24:04 Prospects of sanctions relief32:10 Economic beneficiaries of external sanctions34:24 Continued Russian tourism in Europe35:46 A new generation of Russian elites39:58 How do your students see the world?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of Russia in Global Affairs, Professor at the Higher School of Economics, and Research Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. What is it like to sit on stage with Putin? When did relations with the West go wrong? And what in the world is the “world majority”?Time Stamps:00:53 Moderating Putin’s Q&A sessions06:24 Perestroika and the unresolved debate about Russia’s role14:18 When did relations with the West go wrong?20:58 How has your professional life changed since February 2022?23:32 “World majority,” “multipolar world,” and “civilization state”32:31 Islam, immigration, and downward demographic trends*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Andrew Roth, Global Affairs Correspondent at The Guardian. We discuss the twists and turns of Andrew’s ten-year career as a reporter in Moscow. Time Stamps:03:12 Arrival in Russia in 201108:04 The 2012 protests12:39 Foreign journalists in Moscow23:02 Reporting in East Ukraine in 2014-1635:25 Covering Zelensky45:30 Edward Snowden49:19 Evan Gershkovich57:27 Washington’s China obsession*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the PLA and a senior fellow in the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University. We discuss China’s military presence in Africa, the Houthis, Ukraine, Taiwan, and the South China Sea.Time Stamps:00:44 Zhou Bo’s studies in England and Australia03:23 Chinese military relations with Africa07:04 The Houthis and the Red Sea09:44 How many military bases does Beijing need?21:19 Ukraine26:31 Trump’s approach to China in his second term30:03 Taiwan39:20 The South China Sea*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Philani Mthembu, Executive Director at the Institute for Global Dialogue in Pretoria. We discuss the South African perspective on the war in Ukraine, China, and BRICS.Time Stamps: 01:19 How many languages do you speak?01:58 What is the purpose of the Institute for Global Dialogue?03:29 What has changed since the ANC lost its majority?05:12 To what extent are relations with the US and Russia shaped by the legacies of the liberation movement?14:09 South African reaction to Ukraine’s rejection of its Soviet past15:36 What is the South African attitude toward the war in Ukraine?28:00 How is China perceived in South Africa?36:46 Philani’s experience as a student in China42:12 South Africa’s vision for BRICS48:26 What is the logic of BRICS expansion?53:20 How does BRICS seek to reform the international financial architecture?*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Dmitry Stefanovich, a research fellow at the Center for International Security at the Russian Academy of Sciences. We discuss recent revisions to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, deterrence during the war in Ukraine, Russian red lines, and the evolution of Chinese nuclear policy.Time Stamps:00:01:39 Dmitry’s Odesa origins and involvement in the Sochi Olympics00:04:08 Deterrence during the Ukraine war00:08:39 When were we closest to nuclear use?00:11:30 Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine00:20:05 US nuclear doctrine in the first Trump administration00:26:05 What is the point of nuclear doctrines?00:29:27 Karaganov and the Russian domestic debate about nuclear use00:33:32 US and Russian mutual misperceptions00:36:10 Russian red lines00:40:42 China’s nuclear policy*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Daniel Bessner, Associate Professor in American Foreign Policy in the Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies at the University of Washington and non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. We discuss Trump, American empire, Washington’s Asian fixation, and the possibility of “mutual ruin of the contending classes” among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:01:12 Childhood interest in history00:03:45 The US foreign policy ecosystem and the effectiveness of the Quincy intervention00:06:48 Progressive foreign policy during Trump part two00:09:30 Marxism and other influences00:10:58 Origins of the American empire00:11:56 The US was never isolationist00:13:32 The US v other British settler colonies00:14:54 Trump isn’t fascist, he’s a 1980s New Yorker00:17:37 Has the state become too complex to control?00:20:00 Why the US is an empire00:21:34 American imperial decline and the “Pivot to Asia”00:25:48 How are Russia and China seen from DC00:27:23 Climate change and mutual ruin*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Zhang Xin, Deputy Director of the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University. We discuss the history of Russia studies in the PRC, the Sino-Russian border area, and the logic of the US-China-Russia triangular relationship, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:00:51 Grad school at UCLA and interest in Russia00:02:45 First visit to Moscow in 200500:05:04 History of Soviet/Russia studies in PRC00:12:24 Impressions from most recent trip to Russia00:14:35 Russian interest in creating new partnerships in China00:17:47 Sino-Russian border area00:24:10 Harbin00:27:24 Resolution of Sino-Russian border disputes00:31:33 The US-China-Russia Triangle00:37:21 Difference in Chinese and Russian conceptions of Eurasian space00:40:10 Global West - Global East - Global South*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Akram Umarov, First Vice Rector at the University of World Economy and Diplomacy and Deputy Director of the Institute for Advanced International Studies in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. We discuss Central Asian politics, Uzbekistan’s attitude toward the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the country’s relations with Russia, China, and the USA, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:01:00 Fluency in four languages as a child in Samarkand00:02:54 Graduate studies in the West00:06:43 Institute for Advanced International Studies00:09:47 Japan’s interest in Central Asia00:11:30 Relations among Central Asian countries00:18:54 Shanghai Cooperation Organization00:24:09 Uzbekistan’s relations with Russia00:36:26 Uzbekistan’s relations with China00:45:03 Will China and Russia compete in Central Asia?00:48:03 Uzbekistan’s relations with the US*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. We discuss the origins of “isolationism,” historical hypotheticals, the United States’ relative interests in the Middle East, Europe and Asia, Ukraine and Taiwan, and an “America first” policy for the Democratic party, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:00:45 PhD in history and pivot to policy00:07:38 Charges of “isolationism” from the 1930s through Trump00:15:54 Should the US have done anything differently during WWII or the Cold War?00:19:43 The collapse of the Communist bloc and American primacy unbound00:25:00 Need to draw down in the Middle East00:26:48 Let Europeans take greater charge of their own security00:36:00 How should the US react to the rise of China00:41:12 Taiwan and Ukraine00:51:47 An “America first” policy for the Democratic party*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Dmitry Novikov, Deputy Head of the School of International Relations at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, Russia. We discuss the difficulties of being an Americanist in Moscow, the sources of US-Russian conflict, and Russia’s future as a “Eurasian” power, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:00:38 What is like being an Americanist in Moscow right now?00:04:22 Russian perceptions of US domestic politics00:08:44 Russia’s “realist” understanding of international relations00:10:51 Russia’s efforts to join the West00:20:05 Russia as a Eurasian state00:23:20 When did Russia begin to pivot East?00:28:08 Russia as logistics corridor, security provider, and source of raw materials00:39:17 Need for stabilization with the West00:44:00 A new Russian identity?00:49:13 The growing importance of Islam in Russia00:53:00 The Cold War “lessons” that drive US and Russian elites*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

My guest today is DA Wei, Professor of International Relations and Director of the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University. We discuss Wei’s time at CICIR and Tsinghua, his recent visits to the US and Russia, Taiwan and the South China Sea, and the potential positives of partial decoupling, among other subjects.Time Stamps:00:00:49 What is CICIR00:04:13 Tsinghua’s Center for International Security and Strategy00:09:03 Impressions from recent trip to US00:11:16 Potential consequences of Harris or Trump presidencies for China00:14:26 Is chaos in the US good for China?00:15:49 Sources of US-China competition00:21:29 Impressions from recent trip to Russia00:26:15 Comparison of US-China and US-Russia relations00:30:35 Consequences of COVID00:33:06 Potential positives of decoupling00:40:0 Taiwan and South China Sea*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Charles Kupchan, Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We discuss Charlie’s first visits to China and the Soviet Union, naiveté and NATO expansion in the 1990s, the dangers of the current conflict with Russia and China, the possibility of a new American foreign policy paradigm, global interdependence, and an endgame in Ukraine.Time Stamps:00:01:06 First trip to China in 198000:06:45 Trip to the Soviet Union and Poland in the early 80s00:10:13 Naiveté in the 1990s00:15:23 The dangers of current conflict with Russia and China00:19:44 Pivot to Asia?00:32:31 New US foreign policy paradigm?00:43:10 Global interdependence00:50:02 Maintain channels of communication with Russia and China00:52:20 Endgame in Ukraine*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Alexander Pilyasov, a professor of geography at Lomonosov Moscow State University and the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. We discuss the Russian Arctic, cooperation in the region with China, and growing competition with the United States. We recorded the conversation in Belgrade, following a “Trialogue” on American, Russian, and Chinese interests in the Arctic.Time Stamps:00:01:13 The Arctic in the Russian economy00:17:38 Life in the Russian Arctic00:23:56 Energy export from the Russia Arctic00:26:52 Sanctions00:32:41 China in the Arctic00:40:29 Growing competition with the US in the Arctic*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is ZHAO Hai, Director of the International Politics Program in the National Institute for Global Strategy at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). We discuss US policy toward China, Sino-Russian relations, the war in Ukraine, and China’s vision of global order.Time Stamps:00:01:00 Zhao’s family connections to the PRC Navy00:06:37 Zhao’s graduate study in Chicago00:09:26 Chinese think tanks and the function of CASS00:13:11 China’s reaction to Trump00:22:57 China’s reaction to Biden00:30:22 Sino-Russian relations before the Ukraine war00:34:18 The war in Ukraine00:47:52 China’s vision of global order*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Karl Eikenberry, a retired lieutenant general in the U.S. Army, whose many titles include the defense attaché at the U.S. Embassy in China, Commander of the Coalition Forces in Afghanistan, and U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan. Because General Eikenberry has had such a long and fascinating career and often occupied key roles at important pivot points in U.S. policy, we decided to devote the whole interview to an examination of his biography.Time Stamps:00:01:04 Childhood experience of the Cold War00:06:42 West Point00:10:21 Korea in the 70s00:14:10 China in the 80s and 90s00:35:11 NATO and the collapse of the Communist bloc00:42:14 The Pentagon on 9/1100:44:02 Afghanistan00:51:51 NATO and Putin’s Munich speech00:54:28 Afghanistan01:10:34 Ukraine*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our guest is Andrey Kortunov, the founding director of the Russian International Affairs Council. Time Stamps:00:01:00 Kortunov’s career before RIAC00:09:22 RIAC’s origins and evolution00:18:36 RIAC’s work on sanctions00:25:40 BRICS and other international institutions00:33:29 China-India relations00:36:06 Russia-China relations00:47:00 Russia-Western relations*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, we discuss China-US-Russia relations with Xiang Lanxin, Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center and Professor Emeritus of International History and Politics at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva.Time Stamps:00:01:17 The Xiang family’s four centuries in the Chinese military00:07:38 Lanxin’s experience during the Cultural Revolution00:18:00 Graduate school in the United States and the start of an academic career00:23:01 A history of Western misperceptions of China00:34:05 The recent decline in US-China relations00:39:39 Russia’s relations with the West00:47:55 Russia-China relations00:51:56 Taiwan*The Trialogue Podcast is hosted by the Stimson Center and produced by University FM.**The first twelve episodes of this podcast were published by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey presents the Monterey Trialogue podcast, a series that investigates the relationship among the United States, Russia, and China by engaging with experts from all three countries. At a time when even bilateral channels of communication have begun to break down, the Monterey Trialogue offers a new and necessary perspective on the defining geopolitical relationship of our time. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.