The Tom Dupree Show

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Market Volatility, Oil Prices, and Why Dividend Income Matters More Than Ever for Retirement If your portfolio has felt like a rollercoaster lately, you’re not imagining it. On this week’s episode of The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show, Tom Dupree, Mike Johnson, and James Dupree broke down exactly what’s driving the current market volatility — from rising oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz conflict to the ongoing selloff in mega-cap tech stocks — and what it all means for people in retirement or getting close to it. If you hold an S&P 500 index fund, a 401(k) you haven’t looked at in a while, or a portfolio heavy in growth stocks, this episode was a wake-up call worth heeding. What’s Actually Driving the Market Selloff? The team pointed to a clear culprit: the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on oil prices flowing through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical shipping chokepoints. But as Mike Johnson explained, the real danger isn’t the catalyst itself. It’s the chain reaction it sets off. “You always have a catalyst that sets things in motion,” Mike said. “What kind of kills a bull market isn’t that catalyst — it’s what other links in the chain start breaking along the way.” At the time of recording, the major indices were deep in negative territory for the year. The S&P 500 was down roughly 6%, the Dow around 5%, the NASDAQ — which is heavily weighted toward tech — had touched correction territory at nearly 10% off its October all-time high, while the Russell 2000 was holding slightly positive year to date. The Dow was heading toward its fifth consecutive negative week. James Dupree shared insight from prediction markets, noting that the probability of the Iran conflict resolving by late May was around 49%, rising to 67% by early June. “They probably have AI bots surfing the internet literally every second of every day for new information,” James noted — meaning those markets are likely pricing in information as fast as it becomes available. Why the “Mag Seven” Are Getting Sold Off Hard One of the more striking themes of the episode was the unraveling of the mega-cap tech trade — the so-called “Magnificent Seven” stocks that dominated portfolios and headlines for much of the past few years. During COVID, these companies were treated as safe havens, and money flowed into them almost reflexively. That dynamic is now reversing. Tom, Mike, and James discussed how stocks like Meta and Microsoft are facing a new kind of pressure: investors questioning whether the enormous capital being deployed into AI is actually going to produce returns. Meta dropped 8% in one session over a $3 million social media liability ruling — not because of the dollar amount, but because of the precedent it sets. Microsoft faces its own questions about whether its Copilot AI product can hold its ground against faster-moving competitors. “The market’s pricing in that the money’s not gonna do anything essentially,” James said about the AI spending at these companies. As a point of contrast, Tom brought up Berkshire Hathaway, which is sitting on $373 billion in cash and hasn’t been pressured into making AI bets: “They’re not backed into the corner and they’re not giving into the pressure.” For retirement investors, FINRA notes that market-cap weighted index funds like the S&P 500 concentrate risk heavily in their largest holdings — meaning when those top companies fall, the whole fund feels it disproportionately. What a “Risk-Off” Market Means for Your Retirement Portfolio The phrase Tom and Mike returned to repeatedly was “risk off” — meaning investors are retreating from anything speculative and moving toward cash. James described the speculative end of the market as a “bloodbath,” while Mike noted that even gold, typically a safe haven, had sold off about 13% in the preceding month. Tom offered a pointed observation from a trip to Costco: “What I saw at Costco yesterday looked recessionary. That’s what it looked like.” Lower foot traffic and quieter gas pumps were his on-the-ground read of where consumer confidence may be heading. There’s also growing concern about stagflation — a combination of slow economic growth and persistent inflation — as oil prices push up costs across the economy while spending slows. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data will be a key indicator to watch in the coming months. Key takeaways on navigating a risk-off environment: Speculative assets with no earnings are getting hit the hardest — and fast Even dividend-paying stocks can drop in price during a “sell everything” market But the income those dividend stocks produce doesn’t stop — you still receive your dividend per share regardless of the price movement Instit

How Market Volatility and Geopolitical Risk Affect Your Retirement Portfolio When global events rattle energy markets and push interest rates higher, the impact lands quickly in retirement portfolios — and not always where investors expect. On a recent episode of The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show, host Tom Dupree Jr., portfolio manager Mike Johnson, and co-host James Dupree broke down what geopolitical conflict, rising oil prices, and bond market shifts actually mean for people thinking about retirement or already living on their investments. The conversation was a clear reminder that retirement portfolio management isn’t a “set it and forget it” proposition — it’s an active, ongoing process that requires a plan before volatility arrives. Geopolitical Conflict Is Driving Oil Prices — and Bond Market Uncertainty The episode opened with a frank look at how ongoing conflict in the Middle East was producing ripple effects across asset classes. Tom noted that the situation had “more tentacles” than markets initially anticipated, and that one of the more surprising outcomes was the direction of bond yields. Traditionally, geopolitical stress sends investors toward the safety of government bonds, pushing yields down. This time, yields moved higher — adding pressure to interest rate-sensitive holdings, including many dividend-paying stocks. Oil prices added to the uncertainty. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, was trading near $98 per barrel, while Brent Crude — the European and Middle Eastern benchmark — had spiked as high as $119 in a single session before closing near $109. As Mike Johnson observed, “You don’t see swings like that in commodities typically.” That kind of intraday volatility in a major commodity signals genuine uncertainty, not routine market noise — and it was feeding directly into inflation expectations and the bond market’s pricing of future interest rate cuts. For investors in or approaching retirement, this matters because rising interest rates reduce the value of existing bonds and compress the price of dividend-paying equities — two asset types that retirement portfolios frequently rely on for income. Understanding how these dynamics interact is part of what separates a thoughtfully managed retirement portfolio from one that simply tracks an index. The Danger of Autopilot Investing in a Volatile Market One of the most direct points of the episode was aimed squarely at investors who have left their money on autopilot — particularly in target date funds or pure S&P 500 index vehicles. With the Dow and Nasdaq each sitting roughly 8.5% below their all-time highs and approaching technical correction territory, Tom made the stakes clear: “That’s the danger of autopilot investing. We’re just trying to show, with our portfolio, the benefit of having a managed portfolio — having something where there’s a reason why what’s in there is in there.” FINRA has noted that target date funds carry their own set of risks, including the possibility that the fund’s glide path may not align with an individual investor’s actual timeline or income needs. When markets get volatile, that mismatch can become costly — especially for someone in the withdrawal phase who can’t afford to wait for a recovery. The Dupree Financial portfolio, by contrast, was carrying roughly 34–35% cash at the time of the episode — a deliberate positioning that provided both stability during the downturn and the flexibility to buy quality companies when prices became attractive. Proactive Management vs. Market Timing: What’s the Difference? A common misconception in volatile markets is that “doing something” with a portfolio means trying to time the market — selling at the top, buying at the bottom. Mike Johnson was clear that this isn’t the goal and isn’t realistic over the long run: “It’s proactive management. It’s not timing the market. That’s not what proactive management is, because nobody can consistently time the market. It’s weighing risk and return in the context of what your needs and your goals are as an individual investor.” What proactive management actually looked like in this episode was instructive. On the fixed income side, the team had reduced exposure to longer-duration bonds ahead of further rate increases. On the equity side, they had taken profits in energy holdings that had performed well — recognizing that a quicker-than-expected resolution to the conflict could send oil prices sharply lower. Both moves were made not in reaction to daily headlines, but in response to a pre-existing framework for managing the portfolio. This is precisely the kind of investment philosophy that distinguishes a managed, separately managed account from a mass-market packaged product. As the SEC explains in its guidance on investment

47 Years of Market History: What Tom Dupree Learned About Bonds, Crashes, and Knowing When to Act If you’ve been thinking about retirement — or you’re already in it — there may be no more valuable asset than genuine investment experience. Not theory. Not a sales pitch. Real lived history across multiple market cycles, interest rate regimes, and economic crises. On this episode of The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show, host Tom Dupree pulled back the curtain on a career that began in 1978, sharing the market moments that shaped his approach to personalized investment management — and why understanding history may be the single most important tool any investor can have. From Municipal Bonds to Market Crashes: A Career Built on Cycles Tom Dupree entered the investment business in 1978, joining his father’s firm, Dupree & Company, which specialized in municipal bonds — the debt instruments issued by states, counties, and cities that are generally exempt from federal income tax. It was a different era entirely. Stocks barely registered in everyday conversation, and fixed income dominated the landscape. “Fixed income dominated everything back in the early eighties,” Tom recalled. “It was not a thing that people talked about — stocks — because they really hadn’t moved in forever.” That world was about to be turned upside down. Paul Volcker and the Interest Rate Shock That Defined a Generation In the late 1970s, inflation was creeping higher — much as investors have experienced in recent years. President Carter responded by appointing Paul Volcker as Federal Reserve Chairman, who then aggressively raised interest rates to choke off inflation. The result was dramatic: long-term interest rates climbed as high as 12–13%. For Tom’s father’s bond firm, the impact was severe. Inventory they held dropped in value, losses mounted, and survival was not guaranteed. “I remember my father, a man of faith, walked down to the corner restaurant for lunch and said a prayer on the way — ‘I thank God I’ve got $3 that I can buy lunch,'” Tom shared. “And things did turn over time.” That experience — watching a market in freefall and surviving it — left a permanent mark. It also revealed something that still guides Tom’s thinking at Dupree Financial Group today: pessimism is contagious, and the moments when everyone believes something is “broken forever” are often the best buying opportunities. Key Takeaways from the Volcker Era Aggressive rate hikes can devastate bond portfolios that hold fixed-rate inventory High interest rates created a historic opportunity for savers — but only if they could survive the short-term pain Market pessimism often peaks right before recovery begins Understanding how bonds are priced relative to rates is foundational to all investment analysis Why Bond Investors Make Better Stock Analysts One of the more provocative ideas from this episode is Tom’s argument that a grounding in fixed income actually produces sharper equity investors. The reason comes down to cash flow discipline. “When a banker makes a loan, they dig down to figure out how am I going to get paid,” Tom explained. “A stock is similar — if there’s going to be any value there, you have to know how you’re going to get paid.” Mike Johnson echoed the point, noting that bond-trained investors like Howard Marks, Jeff Gundlach, and Bill Gross tend to bring a common-sense rigor to market commentary that pure equity analysts sometimes lack. “It cuts down to the basic fundamental of cash flow analysis,” Mike said. “That’s really the essence of everything — and it’s definitely the essence in fixed income.” This is the same lens Dupree Financial applies when researching individual companies for client portfolios — a disciplined, fundamental-first investment philosophy that asks how and when investors will be paid, whether through dividends, earnings, or asset appreciation. 2008–2009: The Opportunity Nobody Wanted to Hear About If the Volcker rate shock defined Tom’s early career, the 2008–2009 financial crisis may be the moment that best illustrates how experience shapes decision-making. When the Dow Jones fell below 6,900 in early 2009, Tom sent a letter to a group of parents at his sons’ school calling it a “historic buying opportunity.” The response? Anger. “Why was I promoting that sort of thing to them? Well, it was a historical buying opportunity. Anybody could see it,” Tom said. “Well, that was not what people wanted to hear.” Today, the Dow sits near 48,000 — a roughly seven-fold increase from that low. For investors who were in retirement or thinking about retirement at the time, those who stayed the course (or added at the lows) experienced the full benefit of what became the longest bull market in hi

Oil Prices, the Strait of Hormuz, and What It Means for Your Retirement Portfolio When a geopolitical crisis sends oil prices surging, the effects ripple through nearly every corner of the economy — and that includes your retirement savings. On this week’s episode of The Financial Hour of the Tom Dupree Show, Tom Dupree Jr. and Mike Johnson broke down exactly what’s driving elevated oil and gasoline prices right now, what history tells us about these moments, and — most importantly — how Dupree Financial Group is actively managing client portfolios in response. If you’re thinking about retirement or already in retirement, this conversation is one you’ll want to understand. Why Oil Prices Are Surging Right Now The immediate cause is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly 20–25% of the world’s daily oil traffic passes — approximately 8 to 9 million barrels per day. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration data, 89% of that oil is ultimately destined for Asia, with China receiving around 38% and India approximately 14–15%. This isn’t primarily a U.S. supply problem — but it is absolutely a U.S. pricing problem. As Tom Dupree Jr. explained on the show, American oil — West Texas Intermediate — is priced in a global market. When global supply is disrupted, domestic prices rise regardless of whether the U.S. is importing that oil. “When the world oil market goes up, our oil goes up regardless of whether we are buying it from anywhere else. So it even affects us here in the U.S., even though we are energy independent.” — Tom Dupree Jr. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve: A Band-Aid, Not a Fix A natural question is whether the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) can ease the pressure. The short answer: not meaningfully. According to the EIA’s SPR data, the reserve holds oil in 60 salt caverns along the Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana, with a maximum capacity of 714 million barrels. As of early March, the SPR held approximately 415 million barrels — representing roughly 125 days of supply — but its maximum release rate is only about 4.5 million barrels per day, a fraction of the daily volume bottlenecked through the strait. It also takes around 13 days for released oil to reach the market. Mike Johnson put it plainly: this is a supply chain bottleneck, not a shortage of oil. “Think about what happened during COVID with supply chain issues. This is the same scenario, maybe worse. It just happens to be with oil.” — Mike Johnson Short-Term Inflation, Long-Term Uncertainty High oil prices touch virtually everything — plastics, fertilizer, transportation, heating, cooling, and even the energy demands of AI computing infrastructure. Fertilizer inputs, including urea and ammonia, also pass through the strait, creating additional upward pressure on food costs that could affect companies like Caterpillar and John Deere further down the supply chain. In the short term, elevated oil prices are inflationary. But if the disruption causes a broader economic slowdown, deflationary forces could eventually follow. The FINRA investor education resources regularly caution that geopolitical shocks create exactly this kind of dual-directional uncertainty — and that reacting impulsively can do more harm than the event itself. The bond market is already reflecting this tension. As Tom noted on the show, the 30-year government bond appears to be heading back toward 5%, as fixed income investors price in the possibility that inflation may not be fully contained — and that the Fed may hold rates steady for the remainder of the year. What History Tells Us About War and Market Volatility Mike Johnson reviewed the historical record during the episode, and the findings may surprise you. Historically, market volatility spikes at the onset of a conflict but tends to recover relatively quickly. More instructive is what happens during extreme volatility clusters — periods when large moves, both up and down, happen on back-to-back days. The 2008–2009 financial crisis is the clearest example. Following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, the market experienced a sequence of 4–8% swings — up and down — within the same week. As Mike pointed out, those kinds of moves translated to 3,000-point Dow swings, similar to what investors saw on “Liberation Day” earlier this year. “When you have these clusters of volatility, it shakes all investors to their core. It’s ultimate fear and ultimate greed, literally back-to-back days.” — Mike Johnson Trying to trade through that kind of volatility is, in practice, nearly impossible. The window to act is measured in hours, not days — and you don’t know which direction the next move will be. How Dupree Financial Is Managing Portfolios Right Now This is where personalized portfolio management matters most. Rather than riding out the volatility passively

When oil prices spike nearly 30% in a matter of days and a weak jobs report hits on the same Friday, the word on every investor’s mind is stagflation. On this episode of The Financial Hour of the Tom Dupree Show, host Tom Dupree, James Dupree, and Mike Johnson break down how the Middle East conflict is rippling through oil markets, what it means for interest rates and inflation, and why personalized investment management matters more than ever when volatility takes center stage. Whether you’re thinking about retirement or already drawing income from your portfolio, the current environment is a powerful reminder that how your money is managed — and who manages it — can make the difference between weathering the storm and watching your principal erode. How the Middle East Conflict Is Driving Oil Prices and Market Turbulence The most immediate market impact from the conflict between Israel, the U.S., and Iran has been felt in energy prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged from roughly $72 per barrel to touch $92, according to data tracked by the U.S. Energy Information Administration — a move of nearly 30% in just days. Mike Johnson explained the supply dynamics at play: “Kuwait — they’re cutting oil production. And this is because the Strait of Hormuz is cut off for all practical purposes. These big producers are running out of storage for the oil. They’re essentially closing up the wells.” The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one-fifth of all global oil shipments daily. With roughly 90 million barrels of crude produced worldwide each day, shutting down that corridor has massive supply implications. Tom Dupree noted the physical challenge: “What keeps an oil well going is the oil flowing through all the little capillaries. When that gets turned off, it starts to sludge up.” Restarting shut-in wells can take days to weeks, and operators risk losing pressure and production permanently. For those tracking market commentary on gasoline prices, Mike pointed out a critical consumer threshold: “When you get to about $3.50 a gallon, that’s when you start seeing an impact on spending in a more meaningful way. And then $4 is when things start getting much worse in terms of consumer spending.” Stagflation Fears: Why One Jobs Report Has Investors on Edge The Friday jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics came in weaker than expected, and the combination of rising commodity prices with a slowing labor market triggered immediate stagflation concerns across Wall Street. As Mike explained: “The market’s immediate knee-jerk reaction was that terrible S-word — stagflation. If we have a slowing economy with higher commodity prices, you have inflation and a slowing economy.” Tom was quick to add perspective: “One jobs number does not stagflation make. It’s a trend. But the fact that oil’s going up is gonna be considered inflationary, and then you get that jobs report on top of it.” Despite the volatility — with the market opening down 1.5% on Monday before recovering, followed by a sharp Tuesday sell-off — the broader indices showed resilience for the week. Mike observed: “We’ve essentially declared war. You’ve got oil prices up 30%. The market’s only off a little bit for the week. It’s been resilient as a whole.” This kind of choppy, bifurcated market is exactly why a disciplined investment philosophy matters. When risk-on and risk-off signals get scrambled day to day, reactive investors often make the wrong moves at the worst times. AI and the Job Market: Disruption Is Real, But It’s Not All Bad The conversation turned to how artificial intelligence is reshaping the employment landscape and what it means for market sentiment. James Dupree offered a nuanced take on the weak jobs data: “The AI stocks — they don’t really tie that to the economy because AI is going to replace jobs. So it might actually be good if there’s a bad jobs report for those AI stocks.” Mike broke down where the disruption is hitting hardest: “Some of your more tenured and senior workers — they’re benefiting from AI. What it’s impacting are the entry-level jobs. The number crunchers, entry-level analysts — those are the type of things that are able to be AI-ed away.” Tom drew a historical parallel: “AI is obviously the big thing right now. It’s the same way that the dot-com stuff was 20-something years ago. There will be winners and there will be losers, but I happen to believe that AI may actually create jobs because there will be more things that people can do.” For investors, the takeaway is that AI-related stocks occupy a unique space in the current market. James pointed to NVIDIA’s forward P/E ratio of 22 — below the S&P 500’s five-year average of roughly 23 — as evidence that some of the market&#821

Artificial intelligence is shaking up the stock market — and if you’re in retirement or thinking about retirement, you need to understand what it means for your portfolio. On this week’s episode of The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show, hosts Tom Dupree Jr., James Dupree, and Mike Johnson break down how a single AI research report triggered a major Nasdaq sell-off, why “HALO” stocks are emerging as the safe haven trade for retirement investors, and how a dividend income strategy provides the stability that pure growth investing simply cannot match during volatile markets. With the Nasdaq down nearly 2.75% year to date and the Dow dropping over 645 points in a single session, the team at Dupree Financial Group explains how their income-focused approach and hands-on research process has helped client portfolios outperform the major indices — with significantly less risk. How One AI Research Report Rattled the Entire Market The week’s biggest market story centered on a research report from Rinni, a small boutique research firm, that painted a grim picture of AI-driven economic disruption. Written from the perspective of 2028, the report described a scenario where AI causes mass white-collar layoffs, creating a self-perpetuating economic spiral with no natural correction mechanism. As Mike Johnson explained on the show: “It was well written, and it was probably written by AI. Essentially AI causing mass layoffs, white collar jobs specifically, and causing a vicious cycle in the economy where there’s no self-correcting mechanism that you have with a normal economic downturn.” The report called for a potential 38-40% market decline, and the reaction was swift — particularly in expensive technology stocks that had been treated as safe havens for the past several years. James Dupree noted what this reveals about market psychology: “What it shows is how sensitive the market is right now, especially in some of these expensive areas of the market. The big tech companies were considered the safe haven for the last several years. Now you’re seeing the flip side of that.” This kind of volatility is exactly why working with an advisor who does independent research matters. Unlike large national firms where you may be assigned an investment counselor following a one-size-fits-all model, Dupree Financial Group conducts its own research and gives clients direct access to their portfolio managers — the same people making the investment decisions. Why History Says AI Won’t Destroy the Economy While the Rinni report spooked markets, the Dupree Financial team took a longer view — one informed by decades of watching technological disruption play out in real time. Mike Johnson put the situation in historical context: “You look back historically on what’s happened when you’ve had new technology disrupt an economy. You have upheaval in certain markets, but the unemployment rate has not gone up since you’ve had these displacements.” From farming equipment to spreadsheets replacing bookkeepers to e-commerce disrupting brick-and-mortar retail, the pattern has been consistent: displaced workers move to other industries, and companies become more efficient and more profitable. As an investor, that increased profitability is ultimately what drives returns. The team also drew parallels to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s — noting that while some technology companies will thrive, others building out AI infrastructure at enormous cost may see those investments fail to generate returns. This potential destruction of capital is a real risk for investors who chase momentum without understanding the underlying business. HALO Stocks: The New Safe Haven for Retirement Portfolios One of the most actionable insights from this episode is the emergence of the “HALO” investment framework — Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence. These are companies that, as Tom Dupree put it, “you can’t AI out of existence.” HALO stocks include sectors like oil and gas, physical real estate, grocery stores, telecom companies, and industrial manufacturers like Caterpillar and Cummins. These companies own tangible assets and operate businesses that require a physical presence regardless of what happens in the virtual world. Tom offered a memorable perspective on why the physical world will always hold value: “The physical world has to exist and be maintained regardless. Everybody that is betting on AI in such a big way, it’s like betting on the side bet in a bigger way than on the actual game.” This HALO approach has been a significant contributor to Dupree Financial Group’s portfolio performance this year. Understanding how this investment philosophy works — owning individual stocks in carefully researched companies rather than being packaged into mutual funds — is one of the key differences between personalized inves

If you’re thinking about retirement — or already living in it — one of the biggest questions you face is how to generate consistent income from your portfolio without running out of money. On this special edition of The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show, hosts Tom Dupree Jr., Mike Johnson, and James Dupree dive deep into why dividend investing has become the foundation of how Dupree Financial Group builds retirement portfolios. From understanding how dividends actually work to why emotional decisions can cost you decades of returns, this episode is packed with insights for anyone who wants their money to keep working — even when markets get rocky. What Is a Dividend and Why Does It Matter in Retirement? Before diving into strategy, it helps to understand what a dividend actually is. As Mike Johnson explained on the show, “A dividend is just a portion of the earnings that are paid out to shareholders of a company. When you own shares of X, Y, Z company, you are an owner of that company.” Here’s the distinction that matters most for people in retirement: when a company declares a dividend, they declare a dollar amount per share — not a percentage. This means if you own 100 shares of a company paying $1 per share annually, you receive $100 in income regardless of what happens to the stock price. The yield percentage you see quoted on financial news is simply the dividend payment relative to the current share price. This is a critical concept for retirement income planning. As the SEC’s investor education resources explain, understanding the difference between yield and dollar-per-share income can fundamentally change how you approach portfolio withdrawals. How Dividends Protect Your Retirement Portfolio During Market Downturns One of the most common concerns for retirees is what happens to their income when markets decline. Mike Johnson addressed this directly: “When you have a period where the price goes down, and you’re taking withdrawals — if it’s not paying a dividend, you’re forced to liquidate something to produce that withdrawal. But with the dividends, if the share price goes down, unless there’s something wrong with the company, it’s still paying the dividend.” This is what investment professionals call avoiding the negative compounding of withdrawing principal — selling shares at depressed prices to fund living expenses, which permanently reduces your portfolio’s ability to recover. Dividend income allows retirees to meet their cash flow needs without being forced to sell at the worst possible time. Key takeaways on how dividends protect retirement income: Income stability in down markets: Dividend payments are determined by the underlying business, not short-term stock price movements driven by politics, tariffs, or market fear. Avoiding forced liquidation: Retirees who rely on selling shares for income are most vulnerable during the exact periods when selling hurts the most. Opportunity during volatility: When quality dividend stocks decline due to broad market selling, it creates opportunities to buy at higher current yields — which is exactly what Dupree Financial Group did during the April market pullback. Inflation protection through dividend growth: Companies with long histories of raising dividends often increase payouts faster than the rate of inflation, providing a natural cost-of-living adjustment that bonds cannot offer. What to Look for in a Quality Dividend-Paying Company Not every company that pays a dividend deserves a place in a retirement portfolio. On the show, the team walked through the characteristics they look for when evaluating dividend-paying companies: consistent and growing cash flow, disciplined management that keeps the payout ratio low enough to sustain the dividend through downturns, and a long track record of not just paying but raising the dividend year after year. When a company’s long-term dividend growth rate outpaces inflation — say 7% annually versus inflation running at 2–2.5% — it provides the kind of real purchasing power growth that fixed-income investments simply can’t match. That built-in inflation adjustment is one of the key reasons dividend-paying stocks can be a powerful complement to bonds in a retirement portfolio. This is the type of company-level research that sets personalized investment management apart from autopilot approaches. At Dupree Financial Group, the team regularly conducts direct calls with company investor relations departments — sometimes 15 or more in just a few weeks — to understand the quality of the underlying business, the consistency of cash flow, and the sustainability of the dividend. As Tom Dupree emphasized: “The bottom line is you want to be invested in a company that is a good business, and if you’re going to pay dividends, that they’re not paying everything out in dividends. What is the underlying business that

Did you know there’s nearly $2.1 trillion in forgotten 401(k) and retirement accounts scattered across the United States? On this episode of The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show, hosts Tom Dupree, Mike Johnson, and James Dupree tackle what they call America’s abandoned 401(k) crisis — and lay out a clear path for recovering lost retirement savings before it’s too late. With the average American staying at an employer for just 3.9 years, it’s no surprise that old 401(k) accounts get left behind. But those forgotten dollars represent real retirement income that could be working harder for you right now. Whether you’re in your thirties with scattered accounts or approaching retirement with assets spread across multiple former employers, the team at Dupree Financial Group explains why consolidating your retirement accounts into a personalized investment management strategy could be one of the most important financial decisions you make. Why Abandoned 401(k) Accounts Are Costing You More Than You Think The problem goes deeper than simply losing track of an old account. As Mike Johnson explained during the episode, there are two distinct sides to this crisis. The first is accounts that people genuinely forget about — they leave a job, move to a new city, and a 401(k) with a few thousand dollars slips through the cracks. The second, and far more common scenario, is when people know they have old accounts scattered around but never get around to consolidating them. “You have all these various pieces scattered around. You haven’t forgotten about them — they’ve just been sitting there. And there’s really no clear plan, no management, anything like that.” — Mike Johnson The costs of inaction add up quickly. Old employer plans charge administration fees and internal fund expenses that steadily eat away at your balance. Without active management, your investments may have been moved to money market funds or stable value options without your knowledge — meaning you’ve potentially lost years of compounding growth. Tom Dupree put it simply: “Money that’s together is better managed.” The Hidden Costs of Scattered Retirement Accounts Beyond the obvious risk of forgetting an account entirely, keeping retirement savings spread across multiple former employers creates a series of compounding problems. Fees erode your balance. Plan administration costs and internal fund fees are deducted from accounts whether you’re contributing or not. Over time, a dormant account can lose significant value to expenses alone. Opportunity cost is real. An old 401(k) sitting in a bond fund or money market account for 20 years has missed potentially decades of growth. As Mike Johnson noted: “How much did you leave on the table by just leaving it on autopilot?” Logistics become a nightmare at retirement. Multiple accounts mean multiple logins, multiple statements, and multiple required minimum distributions to calculate and manage once you reach age 73. No cohesive investment strategy. Without consolidation, there’s no way to ensure your overall allocation reflects where you are in life — whether that’s aggressive growth in your thirties or income-focused positioning as you approach retirement. Plan changes happen without you. Third-party administrators regularly swap out fund options within employer plans. If you’re not watching, your money may end up in an investment that no longer fits your goals. How to Find Your Lost 401(k) Accounts If you think you may have retirement money sitting somewhere you’ve forgotten about, there are several ways to track it down. Mike Johnson walked listeners through the key resources available. Contact your former employer. This is the most direct route. Many companies can tell you whether you still have a balance in their retirement plan and connect you with the plan administrator. Use the federal government’s search tool. In 2024, the Department of Labor launched lostfound.dol.gov, a searchable database specifically for private, non-governmental employer plans. You can search by Social Security number to locate plans connected to your work history. Check state unclaimed property databases. Some abandoned retirement assets may have been turned over to your state’s unclaimed property division, which maintains searchable records. The statistic is striking: 54% of savers don’t know where their old 401k is, and 61% don’t know their login credentials. If that sounds familiar, you’re far from alone — and the solution is more straightforward than most people realize. Your Four Options for an Old 401(k) (And Which One Actually Makes Sense) Once you’ve located an old retirement account, you have four choices. Mike Johnson broke them down clearly during the episode. Option 1: Leave it where it is. This is the easiest path — and almost always the worst one. The

Building a Financial Advisory Firm That Puts Clients First: An Inside Look at the Process   Meta Description: Discover why Tom Dupree founded Dupree Financial Group in Lexington, Kentucky—focusing on personalized investment management, team accountability, and retirement planning for local clients. For pre-retirees and retirees in Kentucky searching for personalized investment management, understanding the “why” behind your financial advisor matters just as much as the “how.” In this special episode of The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show, Tom Dupree Jr. and Mike Johnson share the founding story of Dupree Financial Group—a journey that began with a simple walk in the woods near Natural Bridge in Kentucky in February 2002 and evolved into a comprehensive wealth management approach designed specifically for Lexington-area retirement investors. The Origin Story: From Brokerage Dissatisfaction to Independent Registered Investment Advisor Tom Dupree recalls the pivotal moment that sparked the creation of Dupree Financial Group. Walking through the woods with his young son James on his shoulders, he realized the traditional brokerage firm model wasn’t aligned with the future he envisioned for his family and clients. “I got this joy, this excitement in my heart thinking about doing this,” Tom explains. “I was in no position to do it at all. I didn’t have any money. Strangely, my banker approved me for a loan to actually go get the office space and get it fitted up. And that fit-up is still the same fit-up we’re using. We have not changed it.” The firm officially opened in 2003, but Tom identifies 2010 as the true beginning of Dupree Financial Group as it exists today. That’s when the firm disassociated from an outside brokerage and became an independent Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). “In 2010, we disassociated ourselves with an outside brokerage firm and became what’s called an RIA, a Registered Investment Advisor, which meant that now we’re not paying 25% of our revenues to an outside firm,” Tom shares. “That enabled us to do a lot more internally, and it really was the beginning of the firm that we know today.” Key Takeaways: Why Dupree Financial Group Started Client-focused mission: Created to serve average retirement investors who wouldn’t necessarily get attention from major brokerage firms Cost structure advantage: Lower overhead means smaller accounts receive meaningful attention and personalized service Local accountability: Designed specifically to respond to clients in Lexington, Kentucky, and the surrounding region Team approach: Built from the ground up to provide collaborative service rather than single-broker relationships Independence: Becoming an RIA in 2010 eliminated the pressure to use proprietary products and allowed true fiduciary responsibility Personalized Investment Management vs. Mass-Market Approaches One of the core distinctions Tom emphasizes is the difference between Dupree Financial Group’s model and the mass-market approach taken by larger national firms. Rather than assigning clients to investment counselors within a large hierarchy, Dupree Financial Group provides direct access to portfolio managers who actually research and select the investments. “When you’re talking to somebody, to one of us, the team that you’re talking to is also the team that is designing your investment portfolio, actually helping pick stocks and bonds to own in the portfolio,” Tom explains. “Now why is that a big deal? Well, when I was with Brand X, they had a guy in New York who was brilliant, and he really was brilliant, and he was a stock picker. You didn’t ever talk to him, but he would publish a list of things that you ought to buy.” That approach failed catastrophically during the 2001-2002 market downturn, when many clients saw portfolios decline 50% with little communication or accountability from their advisors. “It wasn’t so much the fact that everything went down, although that was a big part of it, but it was the lack of communication,” Tom notes. “It was not being willing to be accountable for what really had happened, and they just clammed up.” The Dupree Difference: Direct Access and Transparency Mike Johnson highlights several critical advantages of the Dupree Financial Group model: Team collaboration: Multiple professionals work together on research and portfolio management, producing better outcomes than single-advisor approaches Direct communication: Clients speak directly with the team members who make investment decisions Own investment selection: The firm conducts its own research and calls companies directly rather than relying on buy lists from headquarters Local presence: All revenues stay local and are reinvested in client services rather than flowing to Wall Street firms &#822

The Hidden Investment Risks Pre-Retirees and Retirees Don’t See Coming: Kentucky Retirement Planning Insights Are you approaching retirement and concerned about protecting your life savings from market volatility? In this comprehensive episode of the Tom Dupree Show, Kentucky retirement planning advisors Tom Dupree and Mike Johnson explore the multidimensional nature of investment risk and why personalized investment management is essential for pre-retirees aged 50-65. Unlike mass-market approaches from large firms, Dupree Financial Group provides direct access to portfolio managers who understand your specific retirement goals and risk tolerance. This evergreen financial education episode delivers timeless wisdom on risk assessment, portfolio protection strategies, and why understanding what you own is critical before retirement. Whether you’re working with a local financial advisor in Kentucky or managing investments on your own, these insights will help you make more informed decisions about your retirement security. Key Takeaways: Investment Risk Management for Pre-Retirees Risk is multidimensional: Investment risk extends beyond simple volatility—it includes sequence of returns risk, concentration risk, and the risk of falling short of your retirement goals The Capital Asset Pricing Model misconception: More risk doesn’t automatically mean more return; it means a wider range of potential outcomes, both positive and negative The danger of false security: Long periods of strong returns can create complacency, causing investors to unknowingly take on excessive risk right before retirement Personalized portfolio analysis matters: Your investment strategy must align with your specific retirement timeline, income needs, and risk capacity—not just market averages Understanding beats panic: Clients who truly understand their portfolio holdings don’t panic during market downturns because they know their strategy is designed for their goals Active risk identification: Professional Kentucky retirement planning involves continuously identifying and monitoring specific risks to each holding, not just following the crowd Howard Marks on Investment Risk: Wisdom from a Market Legend The episode draws heavily from Howard Marks’ influential 2006 memo on risk, which Tom and Mike have studied extensively. Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, challenges conventional thinking about risk and return relationships. “If more risk always meant more return, it would cease being risky. The risk would be riskless,” explains Mike Johnson, highlighting the fundamental misunderstanding many investors have about the risk-return relationship. The discussion emphasizes that bearing risk unknowingly represents one of the biggest mistakes pre-retirees can make. This is particularly relevant for those who have experienced strong market performance for years without understanding the volatility embedded in their portfolios. The Real-World Cost of Ignoring Investment Risk Tom Dupree shares a cautionary tale that every pre-retiree should hear: “There was a man that came to me years ago who had been at UK for a number of years. He had invested in Fidelity and TIAA-CREF, good funds, great returns. He had something like 1,000,006 and he had averaged 13 and a quarter percent return per year for like 23 years. He extrapolated that he could take 10% a year, which was $160,000, live on it and be okay because it was gonna keep doing that. The sequence of returns turned around and bit him good.” This example perfectly illustrates sequence of returns risk—a critical concept for anyone approaching retirement. Even with excellent average returns, the timing of market downturns relative to when you need to withdraw funds can devastate a retirement plan. This is why personalized investment management from a local financial advisor who understands your specific timeline is so valuable. Why Volatility Isn’t the Only Risk Pre-Retirees Face The episode challenges the traditional definition of investment risk as merely volatility. For pre-retirees and retirees specifically, Mike Johnson explains: “The base case that we’re trying to solve here? We’re speaking specifically to near retirees and retirees. Volatility is gonna be your friend or your foe the day you need to take your money out. That’s gonna be your definition of risk—what has the volatility done to my money the day I need it.” Additional Risk Dimensions for Kentucky Retirement Planning Falling short of goals: The risk that your portfolio won’t produce sufficient income for your desired retirement lifestyle Concentration risk: Over-exposure to single stocks or sectors, especially common with company stock or recent tech winners Unconventionality risk: The professional risk advisors take when thinking independently rather than following the crowd—but this can benefit clients long-term Underperforma

Meta Description: Kentucky financial advisors discuss Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s impact on interest rates, market volatility, and retirement portfolios. Dupree insights on portfolio management. When market uncertainty meets changing Federal Reserve leadership, retirees need clear guidance on protecting their portfolios. In this episode of The Financial Hour, Tom Dupree Jr., James Dupree, and Mike Johnson provide direct access to portfolio managers who explain how Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair could reshape your retirement strategy through interest rate changes and market positioning. Understanding Kevin Warsh’s Approach to Federal Reserve Policy The nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair has created significant market implications for retirement portfolios. As Tom Dupree explains, “Warsh is gonna have to deal with this stuff and the stock market is not gonna be his only problem.” His unconventional stance differs from traditional dovish or hawkish approaches, creating both opportunities and challenges for income-focused investors. Mike Johnson notes that Warsh “has kind of an odd view” because “he’s been critical of the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.” This critical perspective on quantitative easing could fundamentally alter how markets price risk and opportunity, particularly for those managing retirement income portfolios in Kentucky and beyond. Interest Rate Environment and Portfolio Impact The Yield Curve Steepening Effect The current interest rate environment shows a steepening yield curve, where long-term rates rise while short-term rates decline. Mike explains: “You’ve seen the yield curve steep… long-term rates have been going up, while short-term rates are going down.” This creates distinct opportunities across different market segments. Small-cap stocks, which are “more tied to shorter term interest rates,” could benefit from Fed rate cuts on the short end. Meanwhile, high-multiple growth stocks face valuation pressure as long-term rates normalize. Treasury Bonds and Market Positioning The 30-year Treasury currently sits at 4.77%, having fluctuated based on market expectations. As our team discusses, the real question becomes: “Trump wants this guy to get rates lower so that housing will start moving… but rates may end up going higher.” This uncertainty requires active personalized portfolio management rather than passive acceptance of market direction. Market Rotation: From Growth to Value and Income Dividend-Focused Strategy in Volatile Markets Since October, markets have experienced significant rotation from growth expectations into cash-flow-predictable companies. As Mike observes, “You’ve seen a rotation out of growth expectations, high multiple stocks and into things where the cash flow is more predictable.” For retirees seeking consistent income, this shift validates the investment philosophy of focusing on dividend-producing assets. “Regardless of what the price is doing, all else being equal, the dividend, the income stream is still there,” Mike emphasizes. The Speed of Information and Investment Decisions The acceleration of market information flow through technology and AI creates both opportunities and risks. “Every second of every day is the market agreeing with you or disagreeing with you,” Mike notes, highlighting the double-edged nature of instant market feedback. This rapid information environment requires discipline in distinguishing between noise and actionable intelligence. As Tom points out regarding their investment approach: “We started doing in the last several years is buying more things that are just common sense type names… that works better.” Technology Sector Volatility: AI and Memory Chip Stocks Navigating the AI Investment Landscape The artificial intelligence sector has dominated headlines while creating extreme volatility. Recent examples include software stocks experiencing significant drawdowns followed by rapid 16-25% single-day gains. James observes: “An average day with no news, a stock going up 25%… that’s ridiculous.” The team’s approach involves gradual averaging into AI-related positions since September, following detailed sector analysis. “We’ve had calls with them. We wanted to understand the sector better,” Mike explains, demonstrating the value of direct access to portfolio managers who conduct primary research. Memory Chip Stock Opportunities Memory chip manufacturers present compelling valuation opportunities despite recent volatility. The team recently added a position with a forward P/E of just 12, significantly below the S&P 500’s average of approximately 22. Tom notes the stock is “up 300% in the last year” but maintains “earnings to back it.” This d

If you’re thinking about retirement or already living in it, the financial headlines can feel like a carnival — prediction markets, Bitcoin speculation, zero-day options, and apps that let you bet on anything from sports scores to an earnings call. On this episode of The Financial Hour of the Tom Dupree Show, Tom Dupree, James Dupree, and Mike Johnson cut through the noise to explain what separates genuine long-term investing from high-stakes gambling — and why that distinction matters more than ever for your retirement portfolio. The Rise of Prediction Markets: Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Wild West of Financial Betting The conversation opened with a look at Kalshi — an online prediction market platform where users can place contracts on virtually anything: Supreme Court decisions, what words a politician will say in a speech, or the opening song at a Super Bowl halftime show. Unlike regulated sportsbooks such as FanDuel or DraftKings, Kalshi operates under minimal oversight from the CFTC, which currently has zero enforcement staff dedicated to this space. Tom Dupree noted that the real danger isn’t just the unregulated nature of the platform — it’s the potential for insider information to corrupt what should be fair markets: “In my business, if I know about a material fact and I trade based on it, they could take my license and bury me under the jail. But this platform sets up for that to happen, and there’s almost no oversight.” Key concerns raised in this episode: Kalshi allows bets on corporate earnings calls, political speeches, and sporting events — any of which could be exploited by insiders The platform holds user cash at a 3.25% yield, blurring the line between a betting platform and a financial institution Spreads and transaction fees on thinly traded contracts can be extremely wide — in some cases, a buyer pays 32 cents while a seller receives only 70 cents on a contract Robinhood has entered the prediction market space, bringing Wall Street-style algorithmic traders into an unregulated environment James Dupree summed up the deeper problem with unregulated prediction markets: “It calls into question the legitimacy of what actions are taking place — be it in politics, sports, every aspect of life. Can you trust what’s being said, or is it being said because of this bet?” — James Dupree For context on why this matters to your financial future, visit our Market Commentary archive for more episodes on financial trends affecting retirement investors. The 2008 Financial Crisis Lesson: When the Side Bet Becomes Bigger Than the Main Event The team drew a powerful parallel between today’s prediction markets and the derivatives that helped trigger the 2008 financial crisis. Mike Johnson explained it with a vivid analogy: “You’ve got one person at a roulette table placing a $100 bet. Then you’ve got somebody behind them placing a $100 bet on that one. And it goes 50 people deep. On that initial $100 bet, you now have $50,000 tied to how it plays out.” That’s exactly what happened with mortgage-backed securities and credit default swaps (CDS) in 2008. Bonds that appeared AAA-rated were actually junk, and when the underlying mortgages failed, the cascading losses from derivative instruments wiped out financial institutions that had no direct exposure to the original loan. The lesson for retirement investors in Kentucky and beyond is straightforward: complexity and opacity in financial products are a warning sign, not a feature. Want to understand how Dupree Financial Group’s approach differs from firms that chase complexity? Read our Investment Philosophy to see how we think about protecting and growing your portfolio. Investing vs. Gambling: What’s the Real Difference? This is the core question of the episode — and it’s one that applies directly to anyone managing retirement assets. Mike Johnson offered a clear distinction: Gambling is binary. You’re either right or wrong within a short, defined timeframe. Zero-day options, Kalshi contracts, and sports betting all share this characteristic. Even one winning trade can reinforce a gambler’s mindset that makes long-term financial discipline nearly impossible. Investing gives you time. As Tom put it, the companies Dupree Financial holds in client portfolios are real — enterprises of people solving problems, making products, and generating long-term cash flow. A stock price can be wrong in the short-term while the underlying business remains fundamentally sound. Key takeaways from this segment: Volatility is an opportunity for long-term investors, not a threat — it’s when patient investors can buy quality companies at reduced prices “Action junkies” — traders who crave market movement — actually create buying opportunities for disciplined investors Platforms like Robinhood are designed to encourage frequent trading, which behav

The Hidden Investment Risks Pre-Retirees and Retirees Don’t See Coming: Kentucky Retirement Planning Insights Are you approaching retirement and concerned about protecting your life savings from market volatility? In this comprehensive episode of the Tom Dupree Show, Kentucky retirement planning advisors Tom Dupree and Mike Johnson explore the multidimensional nature of investment risk and why personalized investment management is essential for pre-retirees aged 50-65. Unlike mass-market approaches from large firms, Dupree Financial Group provides direct access to portfolio managers who understand your specific retirement goals and risk tolerance. This evergreen financial education episode delivers timeless wisdom on risk assessment, portfolio protection strategies, and why understanding what you own is critical before retirement. Whether you’re working with a local financial advisor in Kentucky or managing investments on your own, these insights will help you make more informed decisions about your retirement security. Key Takeaways: Investment Risk Management for Pre-Retirees Risk is multidimensional: Investment risk extends beyond simple volatility—it includes sequence of returns risk, concentration risk, and the risk of falling short of your retirement goals The Capital Asset Pricing Model misconception: More risk doesn’t automatically mean more return; it means a wider range of potential outcomes, both positive and negative The danger of false security: Long periods of strong returns can create complacency, causing investors to unknowingly take on excessive risk right before retirement Personalized portfolio analysis matters: Your investment strategy must align with your specific retirement timeline, income needs, and risk capacity—not just market averages Understanding beats panic: Clients who truly understand their portfolio holdings don’t panic during market downturns because they know their strategy is designed for their goals Active risk identification: Professional Kentucky retirement planning involves continuously identifying and monitoring specific risks to each holding, not just following the crowd Howard Marks on Investment Risk: Wisdom from a Market Legend The episode draws heavily from Howard Marks’ influential 2006 memo on risk, which Tom and Mike have studied extensively. Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, challenges conventional thinking about risk and return relationships. “If more risk always meant more return, it would cease being risky. The risk would be riskless,” explains Mike Johnson, highlighting the fundamental misunderstanding many investors have about the risk-return relationship. The discussion emphasizes that bearing risk unknowingly represents one of the biggest mistakes pre-retirees can make. This is particularly relevant for those who have experienced strong market performance for years without understanding the volatility embedded in their portfolios. The Real-World Cost of Ignoring Investment Risk Tom Dupree shares a cautionary tale that every pre-retiree should hear: “There was a man that came to me years ago who had been at UK for a number of years. He had invested in Fidelity and TIAA-CREF, good funds, great returns. He had something like 1,000,006 and he had averaged 13 and a quarter percent return per year for like 23 years. He extrapolated that he could take 10% a year, which was $160,000, live on it and be okay because it was gonna keep doing that. The sequence of returns turned around and bit him good.” This example perfectly illustrates sequence of returns risk—a critical concept for anyone approaching retirement. Even with excellent average returns, the timing of market downturns relative to when you need to withdraw funds can devastate a retirement plan. This is why personalized investment management from a local financial advisor who understands your specific timeline is so valuable. Why Volatility Isn’t the Only Risk Pre-Retirees Face The episode challenges the traditional definition of investment risk as merely volatility. For pre-retirees and retirees specifically, Mike Johnson explains: “The base case that we’re trying to solve here? We’re speaking specifically to near retirees and retirees. Volatility is gonna be your friend or your foe the day you need to take your money out. That’s gonna be your definition of risk—what has the volatility done to my money the day I need it.” Additional Risk Dimensions for Kentucky Retirement Planning Falling short of goals: The risk that your portfolio won’t produce sufficient income for your desired retirement lifestyle Concentration risk: Over-exposure to single stocks or sectors, especially common with company stock or recent tech winners Unconventionality risk: The professional risk advisors take when thinking independently rather than following the crowd—but this can benefit clients long-term Underperforma

The tech sector faced dramatic volatility this week as AI developments triggered major selloffs across software and hyperscaler stocks. While Oracle dropped 16% in eight trading days and software companies lost over 22% year-to-date, a different story emerged for dividend-focused retirement portfolios built around quality companies. AI Disruption Triggers Tech Sector Turmoil The market experienced significant turbulence when Anthropic released new AI capabilities that simplified software replication for programmers. This development sent shockwaves through major tech companies including PayPal, Adobe, and Microsoft. As Mike Johnson explained, “The software sector just got their heads knocked off…year to date now it’s down 22%.” Amazon stock declined 7-8% after announcing $200 billion in capital expenditure plans. Combined with Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, and Alphabet, these hyperscalers plan to spend $600 billion—more than Germany and Mexico’s spending budgets combined. Markets that celebrated Oracle’s $300 billion open AI investment with a 40% single-day stock jump last summer now react with skepticism to similar announcements. The Market’s Contradictory Signals on Tech Investment Tom Dupree observed this fundamental shift: “Back in June or July when Oracle said they were gonna invest 300 billion in open AI and the stock went up 40% in a day…now when all these hyperscalers are announcing these huge investments, the market’s like, Nope, sorry, we gotta see proof.” This creates opportunities in “picks and shovels” companies that supply infrastructure for AI development. James Dupree noted the disconnect: “It’s bonkers that they’re selling off those names. When these companies announced that they’re gonna invest more money, that’s obviously good for the picks and shovels.” Quality Dividend Stocks Deliver Steady Returns While tech volatility dominated headlines, personalized investment management portfolios focused on dividend-paying quality companies produced different results: Verizon: Up 17% year-to-date from total returns, jumping nearly 12% in a single Friday session Chevron: Similar 17% gains demonstrating energy sector strength ConAgra: 8% total return combining 4-5% price appreciation plus dividend income since late October purchase Nestlé: Strong food sector performance during market uncertainty Mike Johnson emphasized the strategy’s foundation: “In a risk-off market…what the market’s looking for is quality. Balance sheet quality, cash flow quality, lower leverage, more predictability in revenues.” Why Separately Managed Accounts Outperform Packaged Products Tom Dupree explained their portfolio construction philosophy: “The way we put that philosophy together was we didn’t wanna sell annuities and we didn’t wanna buy bonds, so we bought stocks that paid dividends like a bond and raise their dividends over time.” This approach offers critical advantages over mutual funds and other packaged products. During the 2008 financial crisis, some closed-end funds with embedded leverage faced conflicts of interest. As Mike Johnson noted, “If portfolio managers sold everything in the portfolio before things got really bad, that means the portfolio manager’s out of a job…inevitably you have those conflicts of interest within package products that raise their head at the worst possible time.” Separately managed accounts provide: Direct ownership of individual securities Complete transparency on holdings and fees Dynamic portfolio management without commingling with other investors No embedded conflicts of interest Lower overall costs without packaging fees Learn more about the investment philosophy behind this approach. Income-Focused Investing for Retirement Security The cornerstone of retirement portfolio management centers on reliable income generation. Mike Johnson described the strategy: “The price appreciation, everybody’s happy when prices are going up. But the cornerstone of our portfolio is the income.” This philosophy differs fundamentally from buying dividend aristocrat indexes. Mike explained: “There’s a difference between the analysis and the holdings that we have in the portfolio versus buying the dividend aristocrats…What that doesn’t take into account is current valuation.” Attractive valuations on overlooked companies like Verizon and Chevron created opportunities for both income and price appreciation. “For retirement investors, you find the safety net, if you will, of the income, and then the price appreciation over time,” Mike noted. Dynamic Portfolio Management Adapts to Market Conditions Active management allows response to changing market conditions. When quality company stock prices decline 20% without fundamental business changes, the portfolio t

When thinking about retirement or already in retirement, one of the most critical decisions you’ll make is choosing the right investment strategy to generate reliable income. The recent appointment of Kevin Walsh as Federal Reserve chairman has investors questioning whether traditional assets like gold and silver remain viable options, or if dividend-paying stocks offer a superior path to retirement security. Tom Dupree Jr. and Mike Johnson recently explored these topics on The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show, providing valuable insights for investors aged 50 and above who are seeking personalized investment management alternatives to mass-market approaches. Understanding the Federal Reserve’s New Direction The financial markets responded positively to the appointment of Kevin Walsh, a 55-year-old former Fed insider currently working at Stanford University, as the new Federal Reserve chairman. Unlike concerns that the position might go to someone viewed as overly political, Walsh brings both independence and credibility to the role. “He works with Stanley Druckenmiller from a family office, and the market views him as an independent thinker who’s gonna do what he thinks is the right thing to do,” Mike Johnson explained during the episode. This appointment signals potential shifts in monetary policy that could affect everything from interest rates to commodity prices, making it essential for retirement investors to understand how these changes impact their portfolios. The Truth About Gold and Silver as Retirement Investments Recent market movements saw gold prices drop approximately 6% and silver decline around 15%, prompting important questions about precious metals as retirement vehicles. While gold is often marketed as an inflation hedge, the reality is more nuanced. Gold’s Performance: Context Matters Mike Johnson conducted an extensive analysis of gold’s historical price movements, revealing surprising insights: “Since the year 2000, gold has been about a double of what the S&P 500 did. But you look at the context—in the year 2000, you had the S&P at all-time high and gold was about 50% below its 1970s level.” The starting point dramatically affects performance comparisons. From 2012 to 2025, the S&P 500 increased over six and a half times while gold only doubled. However, during the 1970s, gold soared 1,365% while stocks gained just 76%. Why Gold Isn’t Ideal for Retirement Portfolios Several factors make gold problematic for retirement investors: No income generation: Gold doesn’t pay dividends, requiring liquidation to access value Extreme volatility: Decades of stagnant performance punctuated by brief rallies Speculation-based: Impossible to determine intrinsic value without earnings Inflation hedge myth: Historical data shows gold had a negative 1.4% real return during periods when inflation exceeded 4% As Tom Dupree noted, “You want to own productive assets. That’s where your inflation hedge long term comes from.” Dividend Investing: The Superior Strategy for Retirement Income For investors seeking reliable retirement income, dividend-paying stocks offer distinct advantages over commodities like gold. Dupree Financial Group’s investment philosophy centers on this principle. Understanding Total Return: Income Plus Growth Many investors confuse stock price appreciation with dividend income, but they’re separate components that together create total return. Mike Johnson illustrated this with a real example: “One of the companies in the portfolio, their stock’s up today $2.70, which is about 6.8%. Their dividend over the course of the next year is gonna be about $2.76 cents. So all else being equal, the stock at the end of the year, your return would be $5.40 per share, which is around 12%.” This distinction is crucial. The dividend provides predictable cash flow regardless of market volatility, while price appreciation offers additional growth potential. Why Dividend Stocks Excel for Retirees The Dupree Financial Group approach emphasizes several key advantages: Predictable cash flow: Dividends replenish accounts consistently, reducing forced selling during downturns Inflation protection: Companies that raise dividends historically outpace inflation Lower volatility: Income cushions against price fluctuations Compounding potential: Reinvested dividends accelerate wealth growth “We want income because that’s predictable and that’s what clients are looking for,” Johnson explained. “When we do a proposal, we’re talking about the income because that’s predictable.” Building a Retirement Portfolio: The Dupree Approach Rather than using mutual funds or mass-market solutions, Dupree Financial Group creates separately managed accounts tailored to retirement income needs. The Income-First Investment Process Tom Dupree described the f

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The Trump administration’s bold policy announcements are creating significant investment opportunities across defense contractors, mortgage markets, and technology sectors. For investors thinking about retirement or already in retirement, understanding these market shifts is essential for protecting and growing your portfolio. Tom Dupree, Mike Johnson, and James Dupree from Dupree Financial Group break down how these policy changes affect retirement planning strategies and what it means for your investment portfolio. Defense Spending Surge Creates Investment Opportunities The Trump administration’s announcement to increase defense spending from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion—a 50% increase—sent shockwaves through defense contractor stocks. While initial announcements about dividend and buyback restrictions caused share prices to drop 5-7%, the spending increase announcement triggered a strong rally the following day. Key Defense Investment Insights: Defense infrastructure has been underinvested for decades on a global basis Small-cap defense contractors like Credos Defense offer unique positioning with no direct competitors The company trades at an 800 price-to-earnings ratio due to its exclusive government contract capabilities Credos builds hardware for rockets, drones, and defense systems through two segments: Credos Government and Credos Unmanned Systems As Mike Johnson explained, “The whole industry, the complex had been underinvested for decades. Different laws and regulations had been passed, allocating capital to other areas. It was basically left in shambles.” The Commandant of the Marines confirmed on Fox News that current U.S. naval capacity has declined from 600 ships during the Reagan years to just over 300 ships today, highlighting the critical need for defense modernization. Mortgage Rate Policies Benefit Real Estate Investments Trump’s directive for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds represents a strategic move to lower mortgage rates and free up the housing market. This policy, likely advised by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is already showing results. Mortgage Market Developments: 30-year mortgage rates touched 5% (down from over 6%) TD Cowen analysts project rates reaching 5.25% by year-end The policy artificially narrows the spread between mortgage bonds and Treasury yields Institutional investors may be restricted from purchasing residential properties Tom Dupree emphasized the administration’s unprecedented focus: “You don’t see an administration come out and talk about spreads between mortgage bonds and treasuries. This one’s doing it because of Scott Bessent.” For retirement investors, Dupree Financial Group holds mortgage REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) that benefit directly from these policy changes. These companies own large portfolios of mortgage bonds with leverage, generating dividend yields in the teens while experiencing significant price appreciation as spreads tighten. AI Sector Volatility Requires Strategic Positioning The artificial intelligence sector continues to demonstrate extreme volatility, with some stocks dropping 50-60% from recent highs while others surge dramatically. Applied Digital, a company held in Dupree portfolios, recently reported earnings that exceeded expectations by 54% (actual revenue: $126 million vs. expected $82 million). AI Investment Realities: SanDisk Corp became the largest S&P gainer in 2025, up 585% Applied Digital eliminated losses, reporting zero EPS versus the expected 11-cent loss Oracle dropped 40% despite being a mega-cap company The equal-weight S&P 500 outperformed the market-cap-weighted index by over 1% in a single day James Dupree noted about Applied Digital: “They absolutely blew out their earnings. Expected revenue was supposed to be around 82 million, and they ended up reporting 126 million.” This volatility underscores the importance of personalized portfolio management that balances growth opportunities with income-producing investments. Market Breadth Signals Healthy Rally Expansion The broadening of the market rally beyond the “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks represents a significant shift. On one recent trading day, the S&P 500 was flat while the equal-weight S&P 500 gained 1%—a substantial discrepancy indicating money flowing into financials, energy, and mid-cap stocks. Market Breadth Indicators: Small-Cap Russell Index is up approximately 5% over five trading days Both momentum stocks (best performers) and deeply oversold stocks (worst performers) led 2025 gains The healthcare sector is attracting renewed investment flows Mid-cap AI companies ($2-10 billion market cap) are trading as their own distinct sector Mike Johnson observed, “You don’t typically see the two ends of the spectrum be the best performers in a year. The ones that were above their 200-day moving

Building a Financial Advisory Firm That Puts Clients First: An Inside Look at the Process   Meta Description: Discover why Tom Dupree founded Dupree Financial Group in Lexington, Kentucky—focusing on personalized investment management, team accountability, and retirement planning for local clients. For pre-retirees and retirees in Kentucky searching for personalized investment management, understanding the “why” behind your financial advisor matters just as much as the “how.” In this special episode of The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show, Tom Dupree Jr. and Mike Johnson share the founding story of Dupree Financial Group—a journey that began with a simple walk in the woods near Natural Bridge in Kentucky in February 2002 and evolved into a comprehensive wealth management approach designed specifically for Lexington-area retirement investors. The Origin Story: From Brokerage Dissatisfaction to Independent Registered Investment Advisor Tom Dupree recalls the pivotal moment that sparked the creation of Dupree Financial Group. Walking through the woods with his young son James on his shoulders, he realized the traditional brokerage firm model wasn’t aligned with the future he envisioned for his family and clients. “I got this joy, this excitement in my heart thinking about doing this,” Tom explains. “I was in no position to do it at all. I didn’t have any money. Strangely, my banker approved me for a loan to actually go get the office space and get it fitted up. And that fit-up is still the same fit-up we’re using. We have not changed it.” The firm officially opened in 2003, but Tom identifies 2010 as the true beginning of Dupree Financial Group as it exists today. That’s when the firm disassociated from an outside brokerage and became an independent Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). “In 2010, we disassociated ourselves with an outside brokerage firm and became what’s called an RIA, a Registered Investment Advisor, which meant that now we’re not paying 25% of our revenues to an outside firm,” Tom shares. “That enabled us to do a lot more internally, and it really was the beginning of the firm that we know today.” Key Takeaways: Why Dupree Financial Group Started Client-focused mission: Created to serve average retirement investors who wouldn’t necessarily get attention from major brokerage firms Cost structure advantage: Lower overhead means smaller accounts receive meaningful attention and personalized service Local accountability: Designed specifically to respond to clients in Lexington, Kentucky, and the surrounding region Team approach: Built from the ground up to provide collaborative service rather than single-broker relationships Independence: Becoming an RIA in 2010 eliminated the pressure to use proprietary products and allowed true fiduciary responsibility Personalized Investment Management vs. Mass-Market Approaches One of the core distinctions Tom emphasizes is the difference between Dupree Financial Group’s model and the mass-market approach taken by larger national firms. Rather than assigning clients to investment counselors within a large hierarchy, Dupree Financial Group provides direct access to portfolio managers who actually research and select the investments. “When you’re talking to somebody, to one of us, the team that you’re talking to is also the team that is designing your investment portfolio, actually helping pick stocks and bonds to own in the portfolio,” Tom explains. “Now why is that a big deal? Well, when I was with Brand X, they had a guy in New York who was brilliant, and he really was brilliant, and he was a stock picker. You didn’t ever talk to him, but he would publish a list of things that you ought to buy.” That approach failed catastrophically during the 2001-2002 market downturn, when many clients saw portfolios decline 50% with little communication or accountability from their advisors. “It wasn’t so much the fact that everything went down, although that was a big part of it, but it was the lack of communication,” Tom notes. “It was not being willing to be accountable for what really had happened, and they just clammed up.” The Dupree Difference: Direct Access and Transparency Mike Johnson highlights several critical advantages of the Dupree Financial Group model: Team collaboration: Multiple professionals work together on research and portfolio management, producing better outcomes than single-advisor approaches Direct communication: Clients speak directly with the team members who make investment decisions Own investment selection: The firm conducts its own research and calls companies directly rather than relying on buy lists from headquarters Local presence: All revenues stay local and are reinvested in client services rather than flowing to Wall Street firms &#822

Introduction Most people spend more time planning vacations than reviewing their largest asset: their retirement portfolio. But the market’s strong multi-year run has created hidden dangers in 401(k) accounts, particularly for those approaching retirement who haven’t rebalanced in years. In this episode of The Tom Dupree Show, Tom Dupree and Mike Johnson provide an essential year-end checklist covering portfolio drift, account consolidation, tax-smart charitable giving, target date fund dangers, and fraud protection as scam season intensifies. Portfolio Drift: The Silent Risk Multiplier What Five Years Did to Your 401(k) If you established a 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) five years ago and never rebalanced, you’re sitting on dramatically more risk than intended. “If you had a 60-40 split in 2020, today you’re at about 76% stocks if you’ve made no changes,” Mike Johnson explained. “And your account’s worth 20 or 30% more, so there’s more dollars at stake, at risk.” The drift problem: Stocks outperformed bonds over five years Your stock allocation grew from market gains Total account value increased substantially Risk exposure multiplied Example: $500,000 in 2020 (60% stocks = $300,000) is now $650,000 with 76% stocks = $494,000 in equities. Your stock exposure grew 65%. S&P 500 Concentration Risk “About 40% of the S&P 500 is allocated to tech and high multiple stocks,” Mike noted. “If it’s been on autopilot, now is as good a time as any to look at it critically.” Market Corrections Are Inevitable “On average, every year you have a 10% drop in the market. That’s just the cost of admission,” Mike explained. “We had one back in April—it was closer to 20%. You were looking at 40, 50% drops in some things.” “A lot of people have forgotten how—and even that they should—play defense, especially when you’re getting close to retirement,” Mike cautioned. Year-end action: Check your actual allocation today. If stocks exceed your risk tolerance, rebalance before December 31st. Account Consolidation: Simplify Now The Multiple Account Problem “People’s thinking is, if I have this account over here and this account over here, I’ve got more money,” Tom observed. “When they consolidate those accounts, every one of those five pieces put together as one is gonna get managed better.” Hidden Costs of Scattered Accounts “It’s really hard to track performance if you have multiple accounts,” Mike explained. “It’s much simpler, much more accountable when it’s all consolidated together.” Problems with scattered accounts: Impossible to track overall performance Multiple RMD calculations Complex tax reporting Higher fees (missing breakpoint discounts) Poor overall portfolio coordination Mike’s consolidation benefits: “Proper investment to reach your goals, performance tracking, tax reporting, tax planning, and possible discounts on fees.” Year-end action: List all retirement accounts—schedule consolidation to simplify 2025 RMDs and reduce fees. Tax-Smart Year-End Strategies Strategy 1: Gift Appreciated Stock “Let’s say you give $10,000 a year to charity. You can gift those appreciated shares of stock to the organization,” Mike explained. “You can put that money right back into your brokerage account and reinvest it. You could even repurchase the same stock.” The double benefit: Charitable deduction for full market value Avoid capital gains tax on appreciation Example: Stock purchased for $4,000, now worth $10,000. Gift it, avoid $6,000 capital gain, use the $10,000 cash to buy it back. Strategy 2: Qualified Charitable Distribution “If you’re of the age where you have required minimum distributions, you can do a qualified charitable distribution,” Mike explained. “If you gift the RMD straight to the charity, it never flows through as taxable income to you.” QCD advantages: Counts toward RMD requirement Reduces adjusted gross income Lowers Medicare premiums Reduces taxes on Social Security Works even if you don’t itemize Year-end deadline: Execute stock gifts or QCDs before December 31st to count for 2024 taxes. The In-Service Rollover: Plan Three Years Ahead Act at Age 59½—Even While Working “At 59 and a half, you can do what’s called an in-service rollover,” Mike explained. “Even if you’re still employed and working, you can move over the balance of your 401(k) to an IRA and invest it more specifically for your situation.” The Three-Year Retirement Transition “Let’s say you’re 59 and a half and planning on retiring at 62. You can do that rollover, get the funds invested into an income-producing portfolio,” Mike detailed. “While you’re working, tha

Are you wondering how shifts in the energy sector and commodity markets might impact your retirement income? In this episode of The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show, Tom Dupree, Mike Johnson, James Dupree, and Clark Dupree reveal why oil company stocks are rising even as oil prices fall—and what this means for Kentucky retirement planning. For investors approaching or enjoying retirement, understanding how quality energy companies provide both income and stability becomes crucial. This conversation demonstrates why personalized investment management focused on individual stock ownership often outperforms mass-market approaches during commodity market volatility. The Energy Sector Paradox: Lower Oil Prices, Higher Stock Values One of 2025’s most surprising market developments has been the disconnect between oil prices and energy company performance. Oil prices dropped 19% this year, yet the energy sector gained approximately 3%. “This is the first time this century that that has happened,” explains Mike Johnson. “Typically the market prices those producers to track the underlying commodity.” This divergence reflects important factors that Kentucky retirement investors should understand: Policy Changes Create Investment Opportunities Recent regulatory shifts have created a more favorable environment for energy companies. Occidental Petroleum quantified benefits from recent legislation at $700-800 million for 2025-2026 alone. Combined with emission standard rollbacks, these changes have extended market expectations for fossil fuel demand. Integrated Oil Companies Provide Natural Hedging Major companies like Chevron and Exxon operate with advantages that pure drilling companies lack. They have multiple profit centers including exploration, production, and refining. “With oil prices in the upper fifties, that means for the refining business their input costs go down,” Johnson notes. “So that’s a more profitable line of business. It’s like a natural built-in hedge.” This structural advantage makes integrated oil companies attractive for investors seeking stable dividend income rather than commodity speculation. Lessons from 2014: Why Energy Companies Are Stronger Today The energy sector’s transformation since 2014 offers crucial insights. When oil peaked at $150 per barrel in 2014, companies embarked on aggressive drilling. By 2020, oil prices had essentially dropped to zero. “Through blood, sweat, and tears, they were forced to become more efficient,” Tom Dupree observes about the industry’s evolution. Today’s energy companies focus on high-quality drilling opportunities with strong returns rather than volume at any cost. This disciplined approach creates sustainable businesses capable of maintaining dividends during commodity downturns. Quality Companies Over Commodity Speculation “This is why we invest in companies that actually make a profit,” Dupree emphasizes. “What we’re trying to do is invest in things that make a profit and pay a dividend and do something that’s valuable.” Silver, Gold, and Bitcoin: Understanding Commodity Risk for Retirees Precious metals have experienced significant volatility. Silver mining company Coeur Mining traded at $8 in August, surged to $24, then pulled back to $19—all while silver and gold continued broader upward trends. Why Commodities Don’t Fit Retirement Income Strategies Mike Johnson explains why Dupree Financial Group approaches commodities cautiously in retirement portfolios: “Gold has no earnings. There’s no dividend associated with it. In a bear market on the commodity, the gold mining companies are gonna stop paying the dividend. In the context of retirement investing and producing an income, it’s just a speculative commodity.” While commodities can appreciate—gold and silver performed exceptionally well recently due to dollar concerns—their lack of earnings and dividends makes them problematic as core holdings for income-focused investors. The Free Cash Flow Advantage Chevron’s 6.8% free cash flow yield versus the S&P 500’s 3.4% illustrates why Dupree Financial Group focuses on individual company ownership. Free cash flow represents actual cash available to shareholders after expenses, providing more accurate valuation than simple price-to-earnings ratios. Companies with strong free cash flow sustain and grow dividends even during commodity weakness, providing the income stability retirees depend upon. What Kentucky Retirement Investors Really Need Clark Dupree, working with prospective clients, offers insight into what drives people to seek professional investment management: “They’re looking for a relationship. They’re looking for somebody to give them peace of mind.” This highlights the distinction between Dupree Financial Group’s personalized approach

Introduction Is artificial intelligence the next investment gold rush—or are we watching another government-subsidized bubble inflate before our eyes? With Ford Motor Company writing down $19.5 billion on electric vehicles and tech giants pouring hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure, investors over 50 face a critical question: how do you separate genuine opportunity from dangerous speculation? In this episode of The Tom Dupree Show, Tom Dupree, Mike Johnson, and James Dupree examine the dramatic collapse of EV investments and the explosive growth in AI and data center buildouts. Drawing on research from Dupree Financial Group’s six-person investment committee—including direct calls with data center developers—they reveal how to evaluate hot investment trends without getting burned. With 47 years of investment experience, Tom brings hard-earned skepticism to separate sustainable opportunities from the kind of government-backed disasters that just shut down Kentucky’s Blue Oval battery plant. Ford’s $19.5 Billion EV Disaster: A Cautionary Tale Kentucky’s Battery Plant Shuts Down Ford Motor Company shocked investors with a $19.5 billion write-down on its electric vehicle business, abandoning ambitious plans for full-size EVs like the Ford Lightning pickup truck. The casualty? Kentucky’s Glendale Blue Oval Plant near Elizabethtown—once promised to employ 5,000 workers—has laid off all 1,500 current employees indefinitely. “Ford takes a 19 and a half billion dollars write down on their EV business,” Mike Johnson reported. “Essentially they are getting away from full-size electric vehicles.” Tom Dupree had predicted this outcome over a year ago: “I think it might be that guy named Tom Dupree who said a year and a half ago that that thing would never happen.” Government Mandates vs. Market Demand The Blue Oval failure illustrates a critical investment principle: government subsidies create artificial markets that collapse when support ends. “All of this was coming from government mandates. This was not driven by market demand for electric vehicles,” Mike explained. “The demand was not there because the infrastructure is not there yet. It was this heavy hand of government forcing the market to accept this product that they didn’t want.” What went wrong: Political mandates drove investment, not consumer demand EV infrastructure remains inadequate for mass adoption Manufacturing costs exceeded profitable pricing When subsidies decreased, the business model collapsed Why Toyota Won and Ford Lost While Ford chased government EV subsidies, Toyota focused on hybrid technology—matching actual consumer readiness and avoiding financial catastrophe. “You know who didn’t do that? Toyota,” Mike noted. “Toyota was focusing on hybrid. That was their core focus. And so they’re not taking a 19 and a half billion dollars write down.” Investment lesson for retirees: Companies building products consumers actually want—rather than products governments mandate—create sustainable returns. From Battery Hype to AI Hype: History Repeating? The 18-Month Investment Shift “A year and a half ago it was all about batteries,” Tom observed. “Look up some of these battery stocks, James. I bet a lot of ’em are just in the doldrums.” The investment landscape shifted with stunning speed from battery plant euphoria to AI infrastructure mania. The question: is AI different, or are investors making the same mistake twice? Inside Dupree Financial Group’s Data Center Research James Dupree coordinates research for the firm’s six-person investment committee, scheduling calls with company management and conducting initial analysis. The entire committee recently participated in a research call with Applied Digital, a data center developer leasing facilities to tech giants. “We talked about Applied Digital on the last show,” James explained. “They’re the data center landlord. They build and rent out the data centers.” The Hyperscaler Spending Analysis James’s research revealed critical distinctions between sustainable AI investment and dangerous speculation. “The first thing that the guy showed us was he pulled up a list of the hyperscalers—Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, OpenAI, all these guys,” James reported. “And he was showing their sales and then he told us how much they’re gonna spend.” James’s assessment: “Amazon good, Microsoft good, Meta okay—they’re kind of getting on that bubble where they’re spending a little bit too much. Meta does 160 billion in sales and they’re supposed to spend 70 billion,” James detailed. “And then where it really gets dicey is Oracle. They do 50 billion in sales and they’re supposed to spend 500 billion. So that’s a red alert t

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How to Choose a Financial Advisor: Fee-Based vs. Commission and What Retirees Need to Know Introduction Choosing the right financial advisor can feel overwhelming, especially when you’re navigating retirement planning or managing a lifetime of savings. With so many types of advisors—from traditional brokers to fee-based fiduciaries—how do you know which model serves your best interests? In this episode of The Tom Dupree Show, Tom Dupree and Mike Johnson walk through the evolution of financial advising, explain the critical differences between fee-based and commission-based models, and share what you should look for when selecting an advisor. Whether you’re working with a large brokerage firm or considering a local registered investment advisor, this guide will help you make an informed decision about your financial future. The Evolution from Brokers to Financial Advisors From Lockboxes to Digital Portfolios The financial advisory landscape has transformed dramatically over the past several decades. When Tom Dupree started in the business, the term “financial advisor” didn’t exist—only brokers. “When I started in the business, it was a broker. There were no such things as advisors,” Tom explains. Back then, fee-based advisors served only the ultra-wealthy with accounts of $5-10 million or more. Everyone else worked with commission-based brokers. Investors even held physical stock certificates and bonds in lockboxes at their banks. As Tom recalls: “I knew an older man who accumulated a lot of securities, bonds and stocks, and he kept them in his lockbox. He had to physically collect his own bond coupons.” The Rise of Discount Brokerages and RIAs The late 1980s and 1990s brought significant changes: Discount brokerage firms like TD Ameritrade, Schwab, Fidelity, and Vanguard emerged, allowing investors to manage their own portfolios Fee-based accounts became available at traditional brokerage firms Independent Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) like Dupree Financial Group established themselves as fiduciary-focused alternatives This evolution created more choices for investors—but also more confusion about which advisor model best serves their needs. Understanding Different Types of Financial Advisors Commission-Based Brokers Commission-based advisors earn money when you buy or sell investments. While not inherently wrong, this model creates potential conflicts of interest. Key characteristics: Compensated through transaction commissions May recommend products that generate higher fees Not always held to fiduciary standards Common at firms like Edward Jones and traditional wirehouses As Mike Johnson notes: “You the consumer need to be aware of what their incentive is. Some advisors are incentivized by transactions.” Fee-Based Registered Investment Advisors Fee-based RIAs charge a percentage of assets under management rather than commissions on transactions. Key characteristics: Held to fiduciary standards (legally required to put client interests first) Fees typically range from 0.5% to 1.5% of assets annually Incentivized to grow your account value, not generate transactions Provide ongoing investment management and financial guidance “We manage money for a fee and we offer advice. We counsel with people,” Tom explains about Dupree Financial Group’s approach. “It makes it simple. We’re not trying to do other things that you don’t expect us to try to do.” Hybrid Models and Large Brokerage Firms Many large brokerage firms now offer both commission-based and fee-based services, along with additional offerings like legal and accounting departments. Tom cautions about potential conflicts with these one-stop-shop models: “If everybody is working under the same roof and getting paid by the same income stream, they’re gonna all pretty much march to the same company line.” Fee-Based vs. Commission: Understanding Advisor Incentives How Incentives Shape Investment Recommendations Your advisor’s compensation structure directly impacts the advice you receive. Understanding these incentives is crucial for retirement planning. Commission-Based Incentives: Generate income through buying and selling May encourage unnecessary trading or higher-cost products Can create pressure to recommend certain investments Fee-Based Fiduciary Incentives: Earn more only when your account grows Motivated to preserve capital and generate steady returns Aligned with long-term retirement goals “The incentive for us, for example, is to mitigate risk, but to also try to earn a rate of return above the rate of inflation and hopefully the rate of withdrawal,” Mike explains. “It aligns with what our client’s interests are.” The Fiduciary Standard: What It Means for You A fiduciary is legally obligated to act in your best interest. This is the highest standard of care in financial services.

AI Stocks for Retirement Portfolios: How Lexington Investment Advisors Balance Innovation with Conservative Risk Management Introduction What happens when four generations of investment wisdom converge in one portfolio? At Dupree Financial Group, we’re proving that retirement investors don’t have to choose between innovation and security. In the latest episode of The Tom Dupree Show, we explored how AI stocks for retirement portfolios can work alongside traditional conservative investments—and why learning from younger perspectives might be the smartest move seasoned investors can make. Tom Dupree, Mike Johnson, and James Dupree—the fourth generation of the Dupree family in the investment business—give insights into artificial intelligence investing, revealing how Lexington investment advisors are helping clients over 50 navigate this complex technology sector without abandoning the income-focused, risk-managed approach that has served retirees well for decades. Warren Buffett’s Lesson: Why Age Shouldn’t Limit Your Investment Perspective Tom Dupree opens the conversation with a powerful story that resonates with every investor who has ever felt overwhelmed by new technology. For years, Warren Buffett avoided tech investments entirely, convinced they fell outside his circle of competence. Then something changed: he started listening to Todd Combs, a younger member of his organization who helped him see Apple not as a confusing tech company, but as a consumer products powerhouse. The result? Apple became Berkshire Hathaway’s largest investment—a position that has generated billions in returns. “I’ll be honest with you, a lot of the stuff that James has come up with, I’ve thought, you know, it’s just a quick way to lose money,” Tom admits. “But then as you begin to dig deeper into some of these tech companies that are related to AI, we have begun to see some ideas that I never would’ve come up with because I don’t fish in that pond.” This multi-generational approach to investment research has become a cornerstone of how Dupree Financial Group evaluates AI stocks for retirement portfolios. Understanding AI Investment Opportunities Without the Jargon One of the biggest barriers preventing retirement investors from considering AI stocks is the complexity of the technology itself. James Dupree breaks down artificial intelligence into two understandable categories: Generative AI creates and translates information—think ChatGPT providing answers to questions or generating content. Agentic AI makes independent decisions—like high-frequency trading robots that execute trades for hedge funds or autonomous systems that manage complex operations. But rather than investing in the headline-grabbing companies everyone knows, Dupree Financial Group focuses on what Mike Johnson calls “the picks and shovels” of the AI revolution—the infrastructure companies that provide essential services to the entire industry. The Conservative Approach to AI Stocks for Retirement Portfolios Here’s what sets Lexington investment advisors at Dupree Financial Group apart: they’re not betting the farm on speculative technology. Instead, they’re using a disciplined, conservative methodology that treats AI investments as a small but strategic component of a diversified retirement portfolio. Position Sizing That Protects Your Future “We’re not talking about putting a huge part of the portfolio into this,” Tom emphasizes. “Maybe a quarter of a percent here, a quarter of a percent there. We’re nibbling very, very small amounts.” This approach allows the portfolio to benefit from the growth potential of AI technology while maintaining the low-volatility profile that retirement investors need. In fact, the Dupree Financial Group portfolio maintains a beta of approximately 0.65 to 0.70—meaning it’s 30-35% less volatile than the S&P 500, even while incorporating select growth opportunities. Buying During Corrections, Not At Peaks Rather than chasing momentum, the team has been strategically adding positions as AI stocks have corrected significantly from their highs. James notes that many AI infrastructure companies have pulled back 40-50% from recent peaks—creating what Mike Johnson calls “financial crisis-type corrections” that present opportunities for patient investors. “When you look at some of these things that have dropped 40% plus, these smaller companies are the picks and shovels,” Mike Johnson explains. “These are companies that offer a service or a product that the hyperscalers need.” The Infrastructure Play: Where Retirement Portfolios Can Find AI Opportunities Rather than investing in the most talked-about names like Nvidia, James Dupree focuses his research on three critical areas of AI infrastructure: Data Center Companies These firms build and lea

  For pre-retirees and retirees in Kentucky searching for personalized investment management, understanding the “why” behind your financial advisor matters just as much as the “how.” In this special episode of The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show, Tom Dupree Jr. and Mike Johnson share the founding story of Dupree Financial Group—a journey that began with a simple walk in the woods near Natural Bridge in Kentucky in February 2002 and evolved into a comprehensive wealth management approach designed specifically for Lexington-area retirement investors. The Origin Story: From Brokerage Dissatisfaction to Independent Registered Investment Advisor Tom Dupree recalls the pivotal moment that sparked the creation of Dupree Financial Group. Walking through the woods with his young son James on his shoulders, he realized the traditional brokerage firm model wasn’t aligned with the future he envisioned for his family and clients. “I got this joy, this excitement in my heart thinking about doing this,” Tom explains. “I was in no position to do it at all. I didn’t have any money. Strangely, my banker approved me for a loan to actually go get the office space and get it fitted up. And that fit-up is still the same fit-up we’re using. We have not changed it.” The firm officially opened in 2003, but Tom identifies 2010 as the true beginning of Dupree Financial Group as it exists today. That’s when the firm disassociated from an outside brokerage and became an independent Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). “In 2010, we disassociated ourselves with an outside brokerage firm and became what’s called an RIA, a Registered Investment Advisor, which meant that now we’re not paying 25% of our revenues to an outside firm,” Tom shares. “That enabled us to do a lot more internally, and it really was the beginning of the firm that we know today.” Key Takeaways: Why Dupree Financial Group Started Client-focused mission: Created to serve average retirement investors who wouldn’t necessarily get attention from major brokerage firms Cost structure advantage: Lower overhead means smaller accounts receive meaningful attention and personalized service Local accountability: Designed specifically to respond to clients in Lexington, Kentucky, and the surrounding region Team approach: Built from the ground up to provide collaborative service rather than single-broker relationships Independence: Becoming an RIA in 2010 eliminated the pressure to use proprietary products and allowed true fiduciary responsibility Personalized Investment Management vs. Mass-Market Approaches One of the core distinctions Tom emphasizes is the difference between Dupree Financial Group’s model and the mass-market approach taken by larger national firms. Rather than assigning clients to investment counselors within a large hierarchy, Dupree Financial Group provides direct access to portfolio managers who actually research and select the investments. “When you’re talking to somebody, to one of us, the team that you’re talking to is also the team that is designing your investment portfolio, actually helping pick stocks and bonds to own in the portfolio,” Tom explains. “Now, why is that a big deal? Well, when I was with Brand X, they had a guy in New York who was brilliant, and he really was brilliant, and he was a stock picker. You didn’t ever talk to him, but he would publish a list of things that you ought to buy.” That approach failed catastrophically during the 2001-2002 market downturn, when many clients saw portfolios decline 50% with little communication or accountability from their advisors. “It wasn’t so much the fact that everything went down, although that was a big part of it, but it was the lack of communication,” Tom notes. “It was not being willing to be accountable for what really had happened, and they just clammed up.” The Dupree Difference: Direct Access and Transparency Mike Johnson highlights several critical advantages of the Dupree Financial Group model: Team collaboration: Multiple professionals work together on research and portfolio management, producing better outcomes than single-advisor approaches Direct communication: Clients speak directly with the team members who make investment decisions Own investment selection: The firm conducts its own research and calls companies directly rather than relying on buy lists from headquarters Local presence: All revenues stay local and are reinvested in client services rather than flowing to Wall Street firms “The service team is way more aligned with the investment team,” Mike explains. “It’s not two separate functions sitting in the same room.” Investment Philosophy: Focus on Income and Risk Mitigation for Kentucky Retirement Planning Unlike money managers competing to beat

Understanding Market Volatility and Strategic Retirement Investing in 2025 Episode Summary: In this episode of The Financial Hour, Tom Dupree and Mike Johnson, local financial advisors from Dupree Financial Group in Kentucky, talk about current market conditions, Federal Reserve rate cut speculation, and why personalized investment management matters more than ever during periods of high volatility. With Tom’s 47 years of investment experience, he shares insights on protecting retirement portfolios while identifying genuine growth opportunities. Key Topics Covered: Retirement Portfolio Protection in Volatile Markets Market Volatility Analysis: What Kentucky Retirees Need to Know Since the end of October, markets have experienced unprecedented volatility. The NASDAQ saw one of its most dramatic single-day swings on November 20th, surging over 2% before closing down 2.2%. For retirees and pre-retirees managing retirement portfolios, understanding these “toppy market” signals is crucial for wealth preservation. Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: Separating Reality from Market Hype Market sentiment shifted dramatically within a single week when New York Fed President John Williams hinted at potential rate cuts. The probability jumped from 35% to over 80% for a December rate cut. But are these 25 basis point adjustments really moving the needle for everyday investors? Tom offers a refreshingly honest perspective that you won’t hear from your typical 1-800 number investment counselor: “This fed 25 basis point rate cut, it’s bs. So what? It’s not a big deal and they’re only using it to prop up the market and the minute they announce it, the market will sell off.” The Real Housing Market Challenge Unlike generic market commentary, this local financial advisory perspective addresses what’s actually keeping people from moving: it’s not just interest rates. Many homeowners are locked into 2-3% mortgages, and a quarter-point reduction won’t change their calculus. For Kentucky retirement planning, understanding these nuances matters when evaluating portfolio allocation. LNG Infrastructure: A Hidden Opportunity for Income-Focused Investors While everyone chases AI and tech speculation, we are identifying substantial opportunities in liquified natural gas (LNG) infrastructure. This represents the kind of strategic, research-based investing that comes from direct access to portfolio managers rather than cookie-cutter advice. Why LNG Matters for Retirement Portfolios: Predictable Cash Flows: Pipeline companies operate on “take or pay” contracts, providing consistent dividend income Massive Infrastructure Buildout: US LNG export capacity expanding from 19 billion cubic feet/day to 33 billion by 2032 Less Speculative Risk: Unlike AI data centers with uncertain equipment lifespans, natural gas infrastructure offers proven business models Growing Export Market: LNG exports up 21% year-over-year through August 2025 Essential Energy Transition: Natural gas remains critical for power generation, especially for data centers Mike Johnson explains the investment thesis: “You view the AI data center build out with something like LNG and the pipelines that are feeding that—it’s a more consistent, more predictable business model because it’s been around a long time. It’s more predictable. And so when you’re looking at it from an investment standpoint, especially from a retirement investment standpoint, these pipeline companies generally have more predictable, consistent cash flow and their dividends are more consistent.” Key Takeaways for Investors Approaching Retirement Recognize “Toppy Market” Signals: Large upward swings that can’t hold indicate potential market exhaustion Understand Market Broadening: Since late October, equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming tech-heavy indices suggests rotation Don’t Overreact to Fed Announcements: 25 basis point cuts have limited real economic impact Avoid Recency Bias: Just because markets have been rising doesn’t mean they’ll continue indefinitely Consider Real Infrastructure Plays: LNG pipeline expansion offers more predictable returns than tech speculation Protect Gains Strategically: After a strong year, raising some cash in overvalued positions makes sense Plan for Extended Productivity: The “Refire” movement—starting new careers in retirement—provides both income and purpose Understand Your Risk Exposure: Many investors don’t realize how much risk is embedded in their portfolios The Retirement Reality Check: Are You Really Ready? The “Refire” Alternative to Traditional Retirement Rather than completely stepping away from productive work, consider the “Refire” movement—transitioning from a draining career to something you’re passionate about. Dupree Financial Group clients have successfully transiti

The Hidden Investment Risks Pre-Retirees and Retirees Don’t See Coming: Kentucky Retirement Planning Insights Are you approaching retirement and concerned about protecting your life savings from market volatility? In this comprehensive episode of the Tom Dupree Show, Kentucky retirement planning advisors Tom Dupree and Mike Johnson explore the multidimensional nature of investment risk and why personalized investment management is essential. Unlike mass-market approaches from large firms, Dupree Financial Group provides direct access to portfolio managers who understand your specific retirement goals and risk tolerance. This financial education episode delivers timeless wisdom on risk assessment, portfolio protection strategies, and why understanding what you own is critical before retirement. Whether you’re working with a local financial advisor in Kentucky or managing investments on your own, these insights will help you make more informed decisions about your retirement security. Key Takeaways: Investment Risk Management for Pre-Retirees Risk is multidimensional: Investment risk extends beyond simple volatility—it includes sequence of returns risk, concentration risk, and the risk of falling short of your retirement goals The Capital Asset Pricing Model misconception: More risk doesn’t automatically mean more return; it means a wider range of potential outcomes, both positive and negative The danger of false security: Long periods of strong returns can create complacency, causing investors to unknowingly take on excessive risk right before retirement Personalized portfolio analysis matters: Your investment strategy must align with your specific retirement timeline, income needs, and risk capacity—not just market averages Understanding beats panic: Clients who truly understand their portfolio holdings don’t panic during market downturns because they know their strategy is designed for their goals Active risk identification: Professional Kentucky retirement planning involves continuously identifying and monitoring specific risks to each holding, not just following the crowd Howard Marks on Investment Risk: Wisdom from a Market Legend The episode draws heavily from Howard Marks’ influential 2006 memo on risk, which Tom and Mike have studied extensively. Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, challenges conventional thinking about risk and return relationships. “If more risk always meant more return, it would cease being risky. The risk would be riskless,” explains Mike Johnson, highlighting the fundamental misunderstanding many investors have about the risk-return relationship. The discussion emphasizes that bearing risk unknowingly represents one of the biggest mistakes pre-retirees can make. This is particularly relevant for those who have experienced strong market performance for years without understanding the volatility embedded in their portfolios. The Real-World Cost of Ignoring Investment Risk Tom Dupree shares a cautionary tale that every pre-retiree should hear: “There was a man that came to me years ago who had been at UK for a number of years. He had invested in Fidelity and TIAA-CREF, good funds, great returns. He had something like 1,000,006 and he had averaged 13 and a quarter percent return per year for like 23 years. He extrapolated that he could take 10% a year, which was $160,000, live on it and be okay because it was gonna keep doing that. The sequence of returns turned around and bit him good.” This example perfectly illustrates sequence of returns risk—a critical concept for anyone approaching retirement. Even with excellent average returns, the timing of market downturns relative to when you need to withdraw funds can devastate a retirement plan. This is why personalized investment management from a local financial advisor who understands your specific timeline is so valuable. Why Volatility Isn’t the Only Risk Pre-Retirees Face The episode challenges the traditional definition of investment risk as merely volatility. For pre-retirees and retirees specifically, Mike Johnson explains: “The base case that we’re trying to solve here? We’re speaking specifically to near retirees and retirees. Volatility is gonna be your friend or your foe the day you need to take your money out. That’s gonna be your definition of risk—what has the volatility done to my money the day I need it.” Additional Risk Dimensions for Kentucky Retirement Planning Falling short of goals: The risk that your portfolio won’t produce sufficient income for your desired retirement lifestyle Concentration risk: Over-exposure to single stocks or sectors, especially common with company stock or recent tech winners Unconventionality risk: The professional risk advisors take when thinking independently rather than following the crowd—but this can benefit clients long-term Underperformance risk: Short-term underperformance

Bull Markets, Investor Hubris, and the Hidden Risks of Annuities Are you feeling smarter about your investments after years of strong market returns? In this episode of The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show, Tom Dupree and Mike Johnson explore a critical truth that even legendary investors like Benjamin Graham learned the hard way: bull markets can create dangerous overconfidence. For those thinking about retirement or already in retirement in Kentucky, this discussion reveals why understanding what you own—and maintaining investment humility—matters more than chasing the latest “simple solution.” Unlike mass-market advisory firms that promote one-size-fits-all products, Dupree Financial Group emphasizes personalized investment management and portfolio transparency. This episode examines the psychology of market success, the realities of annuity contracts, and why direct access to portfolio managers who show you exactly what you own provides than opaque insurance products. Key Takeaways: Investment Lessons from Market History Bull Markets Create False Confidence: Even Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett’s mentor, nearly lost everything after early success made him believe he “had Wall Street by the tail”—a lesson for today’s investors experiencing strong returns Market Success Often Includes Luck: Quick wins can lead to psychological distortions, especially when you’ve “unknowingly broken the rules of the game but won anyway” The Dangers of Autopilot Investing: Index funds and passive strategies mean following a “prescribed path that lots of other people are going,” with little thought given to how portfolios are composed Annuities Are Complex Insurance Products: Despite being marketed as simple solutions, annuities involve counterparty risk, surrender penalties, and fine print that rarely delivers promised returns Portfolio Transparency Is Powerful: Understanding exactly what you own—seeing individual stocks and bonds rather than packaged products—provides genuine comfort during market volatility Fear-Based Investing Creates Poor Outcomes: Investment decisions driven solely by fear (whether fear of loss or fear of missing out) typically underperform thoughtful, process-driven strategies The Benjamin Graham Story: When Success Breeds Dangerous Confidence Mike Johnson shares a compelling historical example that resonates powerfully with today’s investment environment. Benjamin Graham—the father of value investing and Warren Buffett’s teacher—started his investment firm in the Roaring Twenties with $400,000. Within just three years, he turned that into $2.5 million. As Mike explains: “Because of the great success over that short period of time, he knew that he knew it all, had Wall Street by the tail. He was thinking about owning a large yacht, a villa in Newport, race horses. And he said, ‘I was too young to realize that I’d caught a bad case of hubris.'” The consequences? When Graham thought the worst of the 1930 market crash was over, he went all in—and even used leverage. The result nearly wiped him out personally, and his firm had to be bailed out by a partner. By 1932, his portfolio had lost over 50%, dropping from $2.5 million back to just $375,000. Tom Dupree emphasizes the universal lesson: “The market can humble you real quick. You always have to view past successes in the lens of ‘okay, you may have had a good run, a good success, and some of that could be luck.'” Why This Matters for Kentucky Retirement Planning Today For those thinking about retirement who have benefited from recent market strength, this story serves as a critical reminder. Mike notes: “In the environment we’ve been in for the last several years in the market, some people have made life-changing money. Some people have made good returns and they got to their goal quicker than they thought they would.” The question becomes: How do you respect the gift the market has given you? Through careful analysis with a local financial advisor who can provide personalized portfolio analysis rather than assuming past success will automatically continue. The Problem with “Autopilot” Investing: Index Funds and Groupthink Tom Dupree delivers a powerful critique of passive index investing that challenges conventional wisdom. When Mike mentions autopilot investing, Tom responds: “Autopilot isn’t ever autopilot. It’s a path that someone else has selected that you’re going on and you’re going on it because everybody else is.” He continues with a critical observation: “In the case of an index, it’s an arbitrarily picked index of, say, 500 stocks that meet a certain size criteria, certain management criteria. What you don’t understand frequently is that by going on autopilot, you’re actually being told what to do. You’re not just going with

Navigating Market Volatility: Why Income-Focused Investing Beats Speculation for Kentucky Retirement When the tech-heavy Nasdaq drops 4% in a week and market sentiment shifts dramatically, how should those thinking about retirement or already in retirement respond? In this timely market update from The Financial Hour of The Tom Dupree Show, Tom Dupree and Mike Johnson provide real-time insights into recent market turbulence while reinforcing a critical principle: predictable income trumps price speculation when you’re living off your portfolio. Unlike mass-market advisory firms that leave clients guessing about portfolio holdings during volatile periods, Dupree Financial Group’s personalized investment management approach ensures you understand exactly what you own and why. This episode demonstrates how direct access to portfolio managers who invest in individual securities—rather than opaque packaged products—provides clarity and confidence when markets get choppy. Key Takeaways: Market Insights and Retirement Strategy Tech Sell-Off Context: The Dow dropped 794 points on Thursday as growth stocks pulled back from stretched valuations—a predictable correction in what Tom calls a “toppy market” Fed Rate Cut Expectations Shift: Market pricing for a December Fed rate cut moved from 95% probability to essentially a coin flip (50/50) in just days, affecting growth stock valuations Conservative Portfolios Outperform During Volatility: While the Nasdaq fell 4%, Dupree Financial Group’s dividend-focused, income-producing portfolio actually made money during the same period Flight to Quality Emerges: Investors moving toward healthcare, Berkshire Hathaway, and dividend-paying stocks as speculation cools Retirement Income Is Everything: Cash flow predictability matters more than price appreciation when you’re living off your investments 2026 Contribution Limits Announced: 401(k) increases to $24,500; IRAs to $7,500; new Roth catch-up rules for high earners Opportunities in Volatility: Dupree Financial Group added several positions in recent weeks, including quality names like Kroger Understanding the Recent Tech Sell-Off: What Happened and Why Tom Dupree opens the episode with characteristic directness about Thursday’s market action: “Stocks notch worst day in over a month as tech sell-off intensifies. The market was down 794, which you know, was probably about right and I think it’s still going down today.” But rather than expressing alarm, Tom’s reaction is measured: “I mean, you had to have known it was gonna happen.” Mike Johnson provides context: “Last Friday, you had a huge downdraft early Friday morning, and then it turned around, came back. That is a sign of a toppy market. At some point, you’ll get a longer sell-off.” Why Growth Stocks Pulled Back Tom explains the mechanics behind the sell-off: “When you have things trading at stretch multiples, you don’t necessarily have to have bad news for those things to come back down to earth. Sometimes just the news—they run up on the news or the expectation of the news, then they come off on the news itself.” This phenomenon particularly affects high-growth technology stocks that trade at premium valuations. Mike notes: “Since last Monday, the Nasdaq is down about 4%. That’s the super speculative, more growthy kind of names.” For those thinking about retirement in Kentucky, this volatility underscores why personalized portfolio analysis focused on income production rather than speculation provides more sustainable results. How Fed Rate Expectations Impact Growth Stocks One of the week’s most significant developments involved a dramatic shift in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Mike explains: “The market has drastically changed its expectations in terms of a Fed rate cut in December. It was priced in like 95% chance that they were gonna cut rates in December. Today, that’s basically a coin flip—50/50 is where it’s pricing it in.” The Interest Rate and Growth Stock Connection Why does this matter for stock valuations? Mike provides the technical explanation: “Growth stocks will typically warrant a higher multiple when rates are low or going down, positively correlated to falling interest rates. Warren Buffett used to talk about it—it’s the risk-free rate of return, typically the US government bond.” Tom adds practical context: “If it is lower, then it allows for a growth stock’s P/E to go higher. It doesn’t always correlate directly, but at times, there is a positive correlation that way. It’s a tailwind—it allows for the speculation, gives it permission to go higher.” However, both emphasize this is “not at all necessarily related to their business or how well it’s doing.” A company can report strong earnings and still see its stock drop 3

Three Essential Principles for Protecting Your Wealth in Today’s Market Markets are at record highs again. If you’ve been diligently dollar-cost averaging into your 401(k) for years, watching your portfolio grow, you might be feeling pretty good right now. But here’s a critical question: Have you adjusted your risk management to match where you are in life today? At Dupree Financial Group, we recently revisited some key concepts from Morgan Housel’s excellent book, The Psychology of Money. These principles are especially relevant in today’s market environment, and they might change how you think about your investment strategy. The Paradox of Making Money vs. Keeping Money Housel makes a fascinating observation: “Getting money requires taking risks, being optimistic, and putting yourself out there. But keeping money requires the opposite of taking risk. It requires humility and fear that what you’ve made can be taken away from you just as fast.” For years, you’ve been an optimist—investing in your 401(k), believing in human ingenuity and the ability of companies to create value. That optimism has likely served you well. But as your portfolio has grown and you’ve moved closer to retirement, have you adjusted your approach? The risk you were taking at 35 shouldn’t be the same risk you’re taking at 60. Yet many investors continue with the same aggressive allocations simply because “it’s been working.” That’s not a strategy—that’s momentum, and momentum eventually stops. Understanding “Enough” One of the most powerful concepts in Housel’s book is the idea of “enough.” This isn’t about being conservative or afraid to grow your wealth. It’s about clearly understanding what happens if things go wrong. If you make this investment and it doesn’t work out, will it derail your retirement goals? That’s the question that matters. Having “enough” means you can identify a baseline—a number that allows you to accomplish your goals. Once you have that baseline, you can make informed decisions about risk. You can look at your portfolio and ask: “Do these numbers work for me now, where they are today?” With markets at current valuations and some investors heavily concentrated in high-flying tech stocks, this question has never been more important. Yes, you might have been rewarded for that concentration. But is the additional risk still worth it if you already have enough to meet your goals? What Should Never Be Risked According to Housel, there are some things that should never be risked, no matter the potential gain: Reputation – In our business, reputation is everything. It’s all we have, and it’s all we’ll ever have. We learned this lesson early when an energy partnership we recommended didn’t work out as planned. Even though legally we weren’t obligated to make clients whole, we did—because our reputation was worth more than the potential loss. Happiness and Peace of Mind – True wealth isn’t just about a number on a statement. It’s about having the freedom to make choices, to sleep well at night, and to do what’s right when the opportunity presents itself. We’ve seen clients with substantial portfolios who aren’t happy because they’re constantly worried about market volatility. And we’ve seen clients with more modest portfolios who sleep soundly because their investments align with their goals and values. Freedom and Independence – The real value of wealth isn’t in consumption—it’s in the flexibility it provides. The ability to choose what you do with your time, to help family members in need, to support causes you care about—that’s what financial independence really means. Reasonable Beats Rational Every Time Here’s something most financial advisors won’t tell you: life isn’t a spreadsheet. From a purely mathematical standpoint, it might not make sense to pay off a 3.5% mortgage when you could potentially earn more in the market. But if paying off that mortgage helps you sleep better at night and aligns with your values, then it’s the right decision for you. We call this being “reasonable” rather than purely “rational.” Reasonable takes into account your feelings, your values, and what makes sense for your life—not just what looks best on paper. The Investment Strategy Application This principle applies to investment strategy too. Right now, many investors are actively trading stocks, caught up in the AI and tech frenzy. They’re buying this stock, selling that one, assuming they can beat the market over the long term. Here’s a sobering statistic: Over the last 15 years, 96% of large-cap growth mutual funds have underperformed their benchmark index. These are funds managed by teams of professional

Market Volatility and Strategic Bond Positioning: Why We’re Preparing for What’s Next Market Selloff Signals Valuation Concerns This week brought a stark reminder that what goes up doesn’t always continue in a straight line. The major indices experienced significant selling pressure, with the NASDAQ leading the decline. While some investors may be surprised by this volatility, it’s exactly the kind of environment we’ve been preparing for at Dupree Financial Group. In this episode of The Financial Hour, Tom Dupree and Mike Johnson discuss the recent market selloff, why elevated valuations have been a flashing warning sign, and, most importantly, why our strategic bond positioning is designed to protect and create opportunities for our clients. The Week That Was: Tech Takes a Hit The selloff began Tuesday with the NASDAQ down approximately 2%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.2%. Thursday brought another 1% decline in the S&P, and Friday continued the downward pressure with the S&P down about 1.1% and the NASDAQ falling another 1.5%. While some media attention focused on Michael Burry announcing short positions, the real story is much simpler and more fundamental: valuations have been stretched for quite some time. “We’ve been hollering it from the rooftop for a while now. The market eventually realizes that maybe these things aren’t gonna grow 20% in perpetuity forever.” – Tom Dupree Classic Top-Sounding Talk In recent meetings with companies building data centers and manufacturing components for AI infrastructure, the conversation has taken on a familiar tone. These are excellent companies with impressive technology, but the projections for future demand sound almost too good to be true. “The amount of demand that they talk about having out into the future—classic top sounding stuff. It just sounds way too good to be true. And the valuations of these companies are as if this whole thing they’re talking about happening has already taken place.” – Tom Dupree The challenge isn’t whether data centers are important or whether AI will continue to grow. The challenge is that current stock prices already reflect perfection, leaving little room for anything less than extraordinary outcomes. Valuation Metrics Flash Warning Signals Current market valuations tell a concerning story: S&P 500 weighted P/E ratio: 28 (elevated) NASDAQ weighted P/E ratio: 34+ (expensive) Shiller PE (CAPE ratio): 39.63 To put that last number in perspective, at the peak of the tech bubble, the CAPE ratio reached about 44-45. We’re now at valuation levels similar to where the market stood in 1999. “The level we are now is about where the market was from a valuation standpoint in 1999.” – Mike Johnson While valuations don’t provide precise timing for market corrections, they absolutely serve as warning signals that should influence how you position your portfolio—especially if you’re in or approaching retirement. Historical Market Melt-Ups: A Sobering Comparison Looking at past market melt-ups that preceded significant declines reveals striking similarities: 1920s (1920-1929): 489% rally Japan (1980-1990): 500% rally Tech Bubble: Nearly 800% rally Today (past 10 years): 512% rally The pattern is clear and concerning. While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate crash, it does underscore why defensive positioning makes sense for retirement portfolios. Why We’re Buying Bonds Now For the past several months, Dupree Financial Group has been systematically taking profits from positions that performed well and reallocating into treasuries and money market funds. This isn’t market timing—it’s valuation-based tactical positioning. Our strategic bond purchases serve three critical purposes: 1. Price Appreciation Potential If economic conditions slow and interest rates decline, bond prices rise. This means the bonds we’re purchasing now could generate capital gains in addition to their yield. 2. Locking in Yields Current treasury yields around 4% look increasingly attractive, especially if interest rates fall in the future. When short-term money market rates potentially drop to 2%, our clients will still be earning 4% from their bond holdings. 3. Creating Tactical Opportunities Bonds provide liquidity that can be converted into stocks if valuations become truly attractive. Think of them as “dry powder” waiting for the next major buying opportunity. “It’s a source of cash. You can sell those bonds if certain stocks that you like get cheap enough and could convert those treasury bonds into stocks that you might wanna buy if things get really cheap.” – Tom Dupree The NASDAQ’s Lost Decade: A Cautionary Tale From 2000 to 2013—a full 13 years—the NASDAQ’s total return was just 1%. Not 1% per year. One percent total. “From 2000 to 2013, the total re

Investment Planning for Retirement: Creating Income Streams Through Dividends Market Volatility and Your Retirement Plan: Why Income Matters This episode of the financial hour is from March 29, 2025 – recorded less than a week before the major market volatility and reaction to Liberation Day on April 2, 2025. In today’s unpredictable market environment, having a clear investment plan is more critical than ever. The recent Financial Hour with Tom Dupree and Mike Johnson discusses why many investors struggle during market downturns and how focusing on income-generating investments can provide stability through market volatility. As Tom explains, “Market volatility can lead to extremes on both sides. One extreme is that they abandon everything, abandon all hope, sell everything, go to cash. The other extreme is that you do absolutely nothing.” What Defines a True Investment Plan? Many people confuse having a savings plan with having an investment plan. According to Tom Dupree, there’s a critical distinction between the two: “Some people say, sure. I have a plan. I’m putting X amount into my 401k. I’m putting money into a Roth. I’m putting it into this, to that. That’s not an investment plan. That’s a savings plan. Two completely different things.” A robust investment plan isn’t just about where you put your money—it’s about having a strategy for how that money will work for you, especially during retirement when you need income. The Dupree Financial Investment Approach The Dupree Financial Group follows a clear, two-part investment plan: “Our investment plan is to first produce an income stream through dividends and interest payments. And then secondly, capital appreciation. We achieve this through using publicly traded securities held at reasonable valuations.” This approach focuses on: Income generation through dividends and interest Capital appreciation through reasonable valuations Publicly traded securities Why Income Matters More Than Growth in Retirement The Problem with Pure Growth Investing Many investors, particularly those with 401(k) plans, are heavily invested in growth-oriented funds that mirror the S&P 500. While this strategy can work during accumulation years, it presents serious challenges during retirement: “We may not feel like you’re equipped to set out and lay out every element of your investment plan. That’s where we can come in and help you because we do this and it’s not an investment plan that operates in a vacuum. This investment plan is designed to throw off income for you on a regular basis.” The Benefits of Dividend-Focused Investing Dividend investing provides several advantages for retirees: Income regardless of market conditions – You receive payments whether the market is up or down Less need to sell during downturns – You’re not forced to liquidate assets at low prices Compound growth potential – Reinvested dividends can accelerate portfolio growth Reduced emotional stress – Regular income provides peace of mind during volatility “Well, at least you’re getting paid while you wait. See, that’s the good thing about dividends. At least it’s paying you while you wait for it to either grow or just go sideways, you’re getting some kind of income.” Key Investment Planning Takeaways Do you have a clearly defined investment plan you can explain in 1-2 sentences? Your plan should dictate your actions, not market conditions or emotions Downturns hurt twice as much psychologically as gains feel good Fear prevents necessary portfolio adjustments Understanding what you own reduces anxiety during market volatility A retirement plan must produce income to be effective Making Your Money Work Through Market Turbulence In today’s challenging market environment, it’s essential to: Review your investment plan if you have one Create a plan focused on income if you don’t Ensure your plan aligns with your current life situation, not past circumstances Look beyond short-term market movements to company fundamentals Consider whether your portfolio is designed to provide reliable income “Don’t let what’s going on in the market prevent you from making changes, actually examine and say, okay, what’s going on with my portfolio right now is a symptom of a misinvestment or an investment mix that doesn’t work with my situation anymore.” Ready to Make Your Money Work for You? Is market volatility causing concern about your retirement portfolio? The team at Dupree Financial Group can help you develop a resilient investment plan focused on generating income through dividends and interest payments. Contact Dupree Financial Group today for a portfolio analysis that can identify risk and opportunity in today’s challenging market. Call us at 859-233-0400 or schedu

The Hidden Investment Risks Pre-Retirees and Retirees Don’t See Coming: Kentucky Retirement Planning Insights Are you approaching retirement and concerned about protecting your life savings from market volatility? In this comprehensive episode of the Tom Dupree Show, Kentucky retirement planning advisors Tom Dupree and Mike Johnson explore the multidimensional nature of investment risk and why personalized investment management is essential for pre-retirees aged 50-65. Unlike mass-market approaches from large firms, Dupree Financial Group provides direct access to portfolio managers who understand your specific retirement goals and risk tolerance. This evergreen financial education episode delivers timeless wisdom on risk assessment, portfolio protection strategies, and why understanding what you own is critical before retirement. Whether you’re working with a local financial advisor in Kentucky or managing investments on your own, these insights will help you make more informed decisions about your retirement security. Key Takeaways: Investment Risk Management for Pre-Retirees Risk is multidimensional: Investment risk extends beyond simple volatility—it includes sequence of returns risk, concentration risk, and the risk of falling short of your retirement goals The Capital Asset Pricing Model misconception: More risk doesn’t automatically mean more return; it means a wider range of potential outcomes, both positive and negative The danger of false security: Long periods of strong returns can create complacency, causing investors to unknowingly take on excessive risk right before retirement Personalized portfolio analysis matters: Your investment strategy must align with your specific retirement timeline, income needs, and risk capacity—not just market averages Understanding beats panic: Clients who truly understand their portfolio holdings don’t panic during market downturns because they know their strategy is designed for their goals Active risk identification: Professional Kentucky retirement planning involves continuously identifying and monitoring specific risks to each holding, not just following the crowd Howard Marks on Investment Risk: Wisdom from a Market Legend The episode draws heavily from Howard Marks’ influential 2006 memo on risk, which Tom and Mike have studied extensively. Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, challenges conventional thinking about risk and return relationships. “If more risk always meant more return, it would cease being risky. The risk would be riskless,” explains Mike Johnson, highlighting the fundamental misunderstanding many investors have about the risk-return relationship. The discussion emphasizes that bearing risk unknowingly represents one of the biggest mistakes pre-retirees can make. This is particularly relevant for those who have experienced strong market performance for years without understanding the volatility embedded in their portfolios. The Real-World Cost of Ignoring Investment Risk Tom Dupree shares a cautionary tale that every pre-retiree should hear: “There was a man that came to me years ago who had been at UK for a number of years. He had invested in Fidelity and TIAA-CREF, good funds, great returns. He had something like 1,000,006 and he had averaged 13 and a quarter percent return per year for like 23 years. He extrapolated that he could take 10% a year, which was $160,000, live on it and be okay because it was gonna keep doing that. The sequence of returns turned around and bit him good.” This example perfectly illustrates sequence of returns risk—a critical concept for anyone approaching retirement. Even with excellent average returns, the timing of market downturns relative to when you need to withdraw funds can devastate a retirement plan. This is why personalized investment management from a local financial advisor who understands your specific timeline is so valuable. Why Volatility Isn’t the Only Risk Pre-Retirees Face The episode challenges the traditional definition of investment risk as merely volatility. For pre-retirees and retirees specifically, Mike Johnson explains: “The base case that we’re trying to solve here? We’re speaking specifically to near retirees and retirees. Volatility is gonna be your friend or your foe the day you need to take your money out. That’s gonna be your definition of risk—what has the volatility done to my money the day I need it.” Additional Risk Dimensions for Kentucky Retirement Planning Falling short of goals: The risk that your portfolio won’t produce sufficient income for your desired retirement lifestyle Concentration risk: Over-exposure to single stocks or sectors, especially common with company stock or recent tech winners Unconventionality risk: The professional risk advisors take when thinking independently rather than following the crowd—but this can benefit clients long-term Underperforma

Active Portfolio Management for Retirement: Why Market Timing and Risk Assessment Matter for Pre-Retirees In today’s volatile market environment, pre-retirees need more than autopilot investing—they need personalized investment management with direct access to portfolio managers who actively monitor risk. In this episode of The Tom Dupree Show, Tom Dupree, Jr., Mike Johnson, and Hudson Kemp discuss why active portfolio management is critical for retirement success, especially when the S&P 500 reaches record highs and market valuations signal increased risk. Unlike large financial firms that rely on quarterly rebalancing and assigned investment counselors, Dupree Financial Group provides Kentucky retirement planning with a team approach that monitors portfolios daily. This episode reveals why understanding what you own—not just how much you have—makes the difference between panic-selling during downturns and confident retirement living. Key Takeaways from This Episode Market Risk Assessment: The S&P 500’s current risk level sits around 8-8.5 on a 10-point scale due to high concentration and elevated valuations Active vs. Passive Management: Daily portfolio monitoring beats quarterly rebalancing for pre-retirees approaching retirement Income-Focused Strategy: Building dividend and interest income that compounds over 5-10 years provides stability during market volatility Value Investing Opportunity: When markets hit records, shifting to treasury bonds and undervalued stocks reduces risk while maintaining growth potential The FOMO Trap: Fear of missing out drives investors to buy at market peaks—the exact opposite of prudent retirement planning Personalized Portfolio Analysis: Understanding your specific holdings, not just asset allocation percentages, prevents costly mistakes Team-Based Research: Access to multiple portfolio managers means diverse expertise on AI sector volatility, food industry compression, and real estate opportunities Faith and Finance: Building financial security on something larger than market returns creates peace of mind through volatility Understanding Market Risk in 2025: What Pre-Retirees Need to Know With the Dow and S&P 500 reaching record highs despite predictions of market meltdowns, many investors wonder whether to stay invested or move to safety. Mike Johnson explains the current market environment: “Markets like to climb a wall of worry. You’ve had that since April when value abounded. You could almost throw a dart in April and buy something that was good. The market is up more than 25% since then. But what you’ve had is a shift from total risk-off to now risk-on across asset classes, and it gives us pause.” This transition from cautious to euphoric investing signals danger for retirement portfolios. As Hudson Kemp notes, the “me too money” piling into markets at peak valuations creates vulnerability that retirees cannot afford. The 8-8.5 Risk Scale: What It Means for Your Retirement When asked to rate current market risk on a 1-10 scale, Mike Johnson placed it at 8-8.5- primarily due to elevated price-to-earnings ratios. This assessment drives Dupree Financial Group’s current strategy of profit-taking and repositioning into government bonds and undervalued dividend-paying stocks. “When you’ve had a period of higher than average returns, you expect the future returns to be less. If you have a stock that was trading at 80 and it goes to 50, is it more or less risky at 50? Typically it’s less risky at 50. If you have a stock that goes from 50 to 80, it’s probably more risky at 80 because it’s priced for perfection.” Active Portfolio Management vs. Quarterly Rebalancing: The Critical Difference Hudson Kemp shares a revealing conversation with a friend whose financial advisor makes portfolio adjustments quarterly—a stark contrast to Dupree Financial Group’s daily monitoring approach: “I have a friend who had a meeting with their advisor two days ago. I gave them some questions to ask, and one was: how often do you make adjustments in my portfolio? That advisor makes those adjustments on a quarterly basis. Compare that to what we’ve just discussed—active portfolio management where we are watching every move in the market and making moves when opportunities arise.” This difference becomes critical during volatile periods. When China tariff announcements or Federal Reserve decisions move markets, quarterly rebalancers miss opportunities while active managers can capitalize immediately. Real-World Example: Morning Treasury Buy, Afternoon Market Drop Mike Johnson describes a recent example of active management timing: “That Friday morning is when we added to our 30-year treasuries. That afternoon is when the issue happened with China—just a big long tweet—and then the market sold off because of that. Every day you’re going to have something happening

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