Is The Economy Headed For Transitory "Goldilocks?" | Bob Elliott Ep.19
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Show Notes
Episode 19
On today's show I speak with Bob Elliott, Co-Founder, CEO & CIO of Unlimited Funds, Bringing the Indexing Revolution to Alternative Investments, about macroeconomics and applying the data to various asset classes and market.
1. FED & Inflation
- Although there is a deceleration pattern emerging with CPI (mostly due to medical the past 2 mo - odd), the current disinflationary forces in Core goods may have bottomed and could possibly reverse (as it moves in waves)
- Labor market holds key to inflation. Nominal wages have grown significantly. Increased tightness in labor markets is placing pressure on consumer prices.
2. Labor Market
- Finding a mid-pt with all data
- Services spending is mostly a function of employment and wages.
- Employment stretched so services spending is compensating for the contraction in goods and real estate spending.
- As FED tightens monetary policy, with goal of higher unemployment, services should weaken which will likely weaken GDP.
3. Earnings
- Public vs Private
4. Everything bubble and this time period is like a mix of many different bear market cycles – 40s (post WW2), 70s 2000s cycle, 2008, and post WW2 40s
5. GOAL - producing durable ALPHA!
6. Alternative Asset Classes and Investments
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