2020 Polling in Hindsight: Someone Please Answer the Phone
Someone Please Answer the Phone
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Show Notes
Anyone casually following the 2020 election this year may have noticed a particular pattern in polling trends and election results. That pattern, in key presidential states as well as Senate races, went something like this:
Democrat ahead… Democrat still ahead... Democrat a bit ahead, days away from the election… But then: Republican wins by a fair amount.
How was so much polling inaccuracy possible again in 2020 at nearly all levels?
Episode 21 of the Purple Principle, “2020 Polling in Hindsight,” attempts to answer that vexing question by consulting two polling experts – Dr. Natalie Jackson, Director of Research at PRRI and Dr. Brian Schaffner of Tufts University.
Dr. Jackson gives a sense of the technological challenges faced today by pollsters now that few individuals answer their phones, both landline or mobile. On top of that, a sizable number of bright red Republicans are mistrustful of pollsters and unlikely to participate even when contacted. But for indie-minded Purple Principle listeners, Dr. Jackson does confirm that the independent position often predicts which way the American majority will swing.
Dr. Shaffner mentions that in today’s polarized environment, some respondents deliberately give dishonest answers to pollsters, often venting ideological views in the process. It also appears a “non-trivial” number of voters split their tickets in 2020, marking the Pro-Biden (or anti-Trump) box up top, but hedging against Democratic control down-ballot as well.
What’s a pollster to do in a polarized age with a mistrustful slice of electorate and a shifting political landscape? No simple answers but a lot of helpful insights and information in Episode 21, “2020 Polling in Hindsight (Someone Please Answer the Phone)”.
Original music by Ryan Adair Rooney.
For show notes and transcript, please visit our website: www.fluentknowledge.com/shows/the-purple-principle/2020-polling-in-hindsight
Source Notes:
Changing Attitudes on Same-Sex Marriage, Pew Research Center
Increasing Support for Religiously Based Service Refusals, PRRI
National Council on Public Polls Analysis Of Final 2012 Pre-Election Polls
Danielle Kurtzelben (11/19/20). “Why Were The Polls Off? Pollsters Have Some Early Theories.” NPR.
Parker Richards (11/3/18). “Republican Governors in New England Defy the Blue Wave.” The Atlantic.
Dhrumil Mehta (6/19/18). “Separating Families At The Border Is Really Unpopular.” FiveThirtyEight.