The Peter Zeihan Podcast Series

Ukraine has done all the prep work to launch its counter-offensive against the Russians. Now they just need Mother Nature to do her part and let the ground firm up. So, I would expect the tanks to roll out at the end of May or June. Full Newsletter and graphic: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-war-updates-part-2-the-counter-offensive

The headlines of the week are all looking at the "Imminent Ukrainian Counterattack," and while there are many reasons to expect action from both sides....let's focus on the inevitables for today. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/ukraine-war-updates-part-1-the-inevitables

With the demand for lithium growing, Chile is making moves to nationalize its lithium industry. This isn't just another money grab; it's a move to take control of the production process and move along the value-add chain. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/chile-plans-to-nationalize-its-lithium-industry

We’ve poked holes in the US system and talked about Russian intelligence declining, so today, let’s look at what the US dominates: signal intelligence (SIGINT). Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-united-states-dominates-signal-intelligence

The Soviets once boasted the most intricate and prolific human intelligence network in the world, but things have taken a turn since the end of the Cold War. So why can't Putin's Russia keep pace with its predecessors? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russian-intelligence-capabilities-in-decline

What happens when you give a 21-year-old access to TOP SECRET documents? They end up leaking those documents on a gaming chat platform...shocking. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/top-secret-pentagon-documents-leaked-by-a-21-year-old

Since the onset of the Ukraine War, everyone's been checking under their bed and looking in their closet for the boogeyman - a.k.a Russian Hackers - but they haven't been there. Today's video is coming to you from Wānaka, New Zealand. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/where-are-all-the-russian-hackers

When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) releases its least optimistic report in the last 50 years, alarm bells should go off for everyone. IMF's projected global economic growth for the next year is 2.8%, and for the next five years is only 3%. The scariest part is that these numbers are likely overly optimistic.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/economic-growth-is-collapsing-around-the-world

The Iranians have seized the Advantage Sweet, a Turkish-owned oil tanker carrying roughly 800,000 barrels of Crude. The press release (or should I say 'slap on the wrist') issued by the US Navy should have the Chinese very concerned about their supply lines. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/iranian-seizure-of-oil-tanker-could-spell-disaster-for-china

To sell military equipment to the Russians, you have to be able to check a couple of boxes. First, you can't be worried about the political blowback from partnering with a genocidal, war-hungry country. Second, you either have a lot of extra supplies or are not worried about entering a war yourself. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russia-almost-gets-military-supplies-from-egypt

I think I've found my favorite trail snack - Kikorangi Triple Cream Blue from Kapiti - I swear it will turn a 15-mile trek into a brisk walk. It just goes to show that as the world's top dairy exporter, New Zealand has its s*** figured out... Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-new-zealand-dairy-industry

The terrain in northern Russia complicates building infrastructure enough. But in the aftermath of the Ukraine War (and without the West's involvement), I wouldn't expect this critical infrastructure in Russia to come back online in the next decade. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/crumbling-infrastructure-in-the-russian-taiga

The economics of green energy are vastly different from traditional fossil fuels, and we must understand their differences if the transition to green energy will ever be successful. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-economics-of-green-energy

The demographic situation in the Middle East can be explained by three factors: water, oil, and food. Water prevented the population from expanding. Oil generated the capital needed to industrialize and help the population grow. Food security will ruin all of this. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/demographics-part-10-problems-in-the-middle-east

Let's talk about El Salvador's new mega-prison filled with gang leaders, drug traffickers and the worst of the worst. Sounds great, right? Lock up the bad guys and throw away the key...but they may have just opened a whole new can of worms. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-mega-prison-of-el-salvador

What do Chicago, Denver, and DFW all have in common? Yes, they are all major metro areas in the US, but more importantly, they're colocated with green energy sources. As the world adopts more and more clean energy, these regions with localized energy sources will have a huge leg up on places that don't.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/clean-energy-in-chicago-why-windy-suburbs-matter

That pan-shaped state above Texas offers much more than just tornados and sports. The Sooner State has done most of the heavy lifting in establishing itself as an agricultural, precision manufacturing, and energy state. All that to say, Oklahoma is not only a leader in the US but globally as well. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/sooner-or-later-oklahomas-time-to-shine

Worried AI is going to steal your job and kick you to the curb? If you watched the video, you can probably see why I'm not worried about my job security. While AI is going to change the way we do a lot of things, it still needs some time before it's cracking the kind of nuanced jokes I'm famous for. Note: This video was recrorded prior to the GPT-4 update. Full Newsletter:

The American Southwest is primed to be one of the largest beneficiaries of the changes caused by deglobalization. However, everything in the American Southwest depends upon one thing...WATER.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-water-crisis-in-the-american-southwest

Europe's energy situation looked pretty dire last year as concerns began to mount over the impending winter season. Thankfully they dodged a bullet this year, but how many more bullets can the Europeans dodge? Horrible views today up on the Isthmus Peak Trail in New Zealand.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/dire-straits-energy-in-europe

The CCP is always watching...and no, I'm not talking about spy balloons today. Under the law in China, any company must cooperate with the government. So if you've got TikTok on your phone, you may want to watch your back. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/theyre-watching-you-the-tiktok-ban

The advanced developing world is about to have its moment. We're talking about India, Turkey, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Brazil. These countries were a little late to the global scene, but now it's their time to shine, hopefully... Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/demographics-part-9-the-advanced-developing-world

Anytime Russia and nukes are mentioned in the same sentence...the world pays attention. But does moving some Russian nukes to Belarus inherently change Putin's military posture?Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russia-moves-nukes-to-belarus

The week's major news is that French President Macron is trying to bring Chinese President Xi to his senses. As Macron urges Xi to drop his support of Putin and the Russian war on Ukraine, we need to see why this conversation is even happening. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/macron-tries-to-reason-with-a-failing-china

For those following Chinese relations, you've probably heard that Honduras just dropped its recognition of Taiwan to establish ties with mainland China. President Tsai responded with a trip to Central America to shore up diplomatic support, but will any of this determine the status of relations between Taiwan, China, and the rest of the world?Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/taiwan-loses-honduran-support-to-china

Between geographical barriers, neutral countries, and bloody history, the European space has historically been disconnected. Now that central and western Europe is forming a coalition against the Russians...Putin should be shaking in his boots.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/building-the-anti-russian-alliance

Finland got the green light and has officially become NATO's newest member. While the Finns are breathing a sigh of relief, we must consider how this could change the scope of the war.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/finland-natos-newest-member

By the time you see this, I'll already be on the other side of the world, so I figured it was the perfect opportunity to talk politics...specifically, who will walk away with the 2024 US Presidency.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-winner-of-the-2024-us-presidential-election-is

If you want to become a dictator one day, be sure to listen. The week's big news is that the judicial reforms being pushed by Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, have been put on hold. This was recorded just outside Manapouri in New Zealand.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/how-to-stop-a-dictator-upholding-israels-judiciary

Despite the threat a Russian victory over Ukraine poses to Turkey, they are taking a far different approach to international affairs than Japan...and it makes a lot of sense when you take a broad look at Turkey's geopolitical situation.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/turkey-navigates-the-ukraine-war

As Japan prepares for the G7 Summit, the topic on everyone's mind is the Ukraine War. By providing aid to the Ukrainians, the Japanese have given us a glimpse into how far the country has come and how they strategically positioned themselves for the years to come.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/japan-prepares-for-a-changing-world

Russia has long operated under the guise of "strategic partnerships" to keep its enemies within striking distance. Putin and Xi's partnership is no different. However, only time will tell who will end up with the knife in their back. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-russian-chinese-partnership

The demographic outlook of Southeast Asia is one of the best in the world. It's one thing to have a single country with solid demographics but put all of Southeast Asia together, and the region's strength amplifies. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/demographics-part-8-optimism-for-southeast-asia

I may have ditched the "howdys" and "y'alls" for the high mountains of Colorado, but Austin remains part of one of the fastest-growing economic and urban zones in the western hemisphere. Austin falls right in the middle of the Texas Triangle - a zone comprised of San Antonio, Houston, and Dallas.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/austins-role-in-the-texas-triangle

Due to the war, Ukrainian agricultural exports were reduced to a fraction of their pre-war numbers. The grain deal brokered by the UN was a glimmer of hope that perhaps exports wouldn't entirely fall off the map...until now. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russia-targets-the-ukraine-grain-deal

Despite some food scares coming out of the former Soviet space, Mother Nature helped 2022 crop production look pretty solid in most of the great agriculture basins of the world. However, this could be the world's last food-secure year for quite a while.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/agricultural-disruptions-in-argentina-and-ukraine

If you've read my latest book, The End of the World Is Just the Beginning, you know what question keeps me up at night: how long will we be able to feed the world's population? With threats to food security increasing daily, China is a scary example of how quickly this situation could go from critical to catastrophic.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/famine-the-ultimate-country-killer

A world caught in deep demographic decline, faced with the loss of consumption and the complications that come with all that...can automation help pull us out of this nose dive? Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/will-automation-save-the-world

There are a few reasons the cartels love their cocaine, mainly because it's easy to smuggle and cheap to make. But what happens when you sell it? You're left with a boatload of "dirty cash" you can't do anything with.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/cartels-part-3-the-north-american-drug-war

No, we're not headed for another financial crisis...although, to those with more than 250k in one of the three failing banks, it may seem like we are. Silicon Valley Bank is the largest of the three, but it's still only the 16th largest in the nation.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/the-financial-crisis-of-2023

To my fellow nerds reading along...this is your trigger warning...today we're talking about BAD DATA. Sorry for the dramatics, but I'm sure many of you share my frustration when you can't find the correct numbers for that forecast you're working on or, even worse, the data you used in your model is falsified. Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/trusting-the-numbers-in-a-deglobalized-world

Flashback to the 80s with me for a moment...we can leave out the big hair and leg warmers...but let's talk drugs. Most of the cartel activity came from one place, Colombia. If you've ever seen Miami Vice, you get the idea. But once the US caught onto the cartels' "distribution strategy," new ways of getting "product" into the US had to be created.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/cartels-part-2-origins-of-the-drug-trade

The Iranians have stumbled upon what every Green dreams of...a massive store of lithium ore. If the numbers prove true, it would be the 2nd largest deposit ever discovered. But is it too good to be true?Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/iran-discovers-a-huge-deposit-of-lithium

On March 7th, two of the four US citizens kidnapped shortly after crossing the border into Mexico were found dead. This raises several questions, but perhaps the most significant is how this will change the United States' policy on Mexican cartels.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/cartels-part-1-americans-caught-in-the-crossfire

With the potential for the Americans to get caught up in simaltaneous wars with the Russians and Chinese, do I think the US can handle it? The short answer is that the US will be fine...Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/can-the-us-military-fight-russia-china

The Russians are taking a page from the Iranians by using gold to avoid the sanctions imposed on the Euro and USD. But before we look at how the Europeans are trying to disrupt their gold usage, we must see why gold makes sense for Russia.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/interfering-with-the-russian-gold-trade

In early 2020, reports of a virus sweeping across the globe hit the headlines. But where did it come from? How did it start? This week's news is that the Department of Energy released a low-confidence statement that COVID originated from a lab leak within the Chinese System.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/covid-what-really-happened-in-wuhan

Today we're talking about another region of the world competing for the title of "worst demographics" - and that, of course, is none other than Northeast Asia.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/demographics-part-7-the-northeast-asian-crash

Over the past few years, every aspect of life has been trapped in a constant state of flux...thanks COVID. Unfortunately, the economy's lack of stability forced inflation to skyrocket to 9%. The effect was devastating.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/inflation-the-gift-that-keeps-on-taking

When I get the question - "Is India the next China?" - to the surprise of many, I respond with a resounding NO! And the Indians should be extremely happy about that.Full Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/is-india-the-next-china