The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Last week when Shaun Johnson was in the studio, we were discussing retirement.  Not mine, but that’s of growing fascination to me these days.  When do you know? If you aren't getting cancelled, or run out of town, or falling apart, how do you know?  John Key famously had nothing left in the tank.  Johnson was explaining it was important for him to go out when he decided, not when he was dropped. The TV stuff he now does was something he was interested in, but didn’t know how it would unfold.  Johnson at 34 years old seemed young enough.  I look at people like Tom Brady in his mid 40's. One more season, one more chance at greatness, and he goes out a hero with another Super Bowl win.  I look at Aaron Rodgers, who has signed at Pittsburgh this year. He looks like he has gone a season too long. He looks like he is looking for work, when he should really be looking for life after football. Maybe this season will make a fool of me, but I doubt it.  But all of that pales in comparison when it comes to Nico Porteous. He is walking away from his snow sports career at 23 years old.  He doesn’t want to use the word retirement, but equally he won't be at the Olympics anymore.  As our most successful ever snow sport athlete, it is over. He also doesn’t know what he is going to do, or what his future looks like. But he has enjoyed videos and production so maybe that’s a path.  How do you decide that at 23 years old?  How do you know that it's right?  Who advises you? How do you know they're right?  Having spent your entire life aiming for the one big thing, sporting excellence, how do you pull the cord when you have, if you want, years to go?  Are you one of those people who can walk away from that level of exhilaration and success and not look back? Is now knowing what's next part of the thrill?  Will you keep the scrapbook of memories? Will you tell your kids or grandkids about the halfpipe? Will they ask how come Dad can do flips on skis when they first go to Cardrona?  What a big call with so much ahead of him. Or was what he did plenty? Is that a good way to see life?  I admire him. Is he reckless? Could be. Maybe he is an insightful genius. Either way, I admire him.  At 23 years old I would have tortured myself, and probably still wouldn’t have done what he has. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ian Foster was one of the more polarising All Blacks coaches in recent memory.  He took the helm after the superb record of Sir Steve Hansen, and during his time there were constant discussions surrounding his job security.  During his tenure he had a win rate of 70% and lost New Zealand the number one world ranking, but at the same time, he won 4 Bledisloe Cups, 4 Freedom Cups, and 3 Rugby Championships, as well as coming within a point of winning the Rugby World Cup.  Foster is still in the coaching game over in Japan, but in the meantime, he’s written a book called ‘Leading Under Pressure’, that tells the story of his time with the All Blacks.   He told Mike Hosking he had never intended to write a book, but felt it was an important story to tell.  “A lot of the feedback we got is that people actually saw a team go through a journey over those four years,” he said.  “I just felt that I almost owed it to my management team and a lot of my leading players to actually tell the story of the journey of that particular team.”  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 17th of June, we have good news around the number of families moved out of emergency housing and where they've gone. Small hint - it's not to cars or the streets.  At 23 years old, Nico Porteous has decided he wants to retire from the Olympics, at the peak of his prime. He joined the show to delve into his decision.   Former All Blacks coach Ian Foster has a new book out about leadership and his time in the top job, so he's on to talk all things pressure.    Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A growing number of New Zealanders perceive China as a threat.   A new report from the Asia New Zealand Foundation surveyed 2,300 locals between November and December, with an additional poll in March.   It shows New Zealanders' perception of China as a threat rose from 28% to 40% over four months.  Jason Young, Director of Victoria University’s NZ-China Research Centre, told Mike Hosking the big jump in threat perception happened in March, just after Chinese Navy conducted exercises in the Tasman Sea.  He says that New Zealand has seen China and its military grow, but its military has always been very far away, and coming into the Tasman changed that.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nico Porteous is walking away from competitive free skiing, retiring at age 23.  The Kiwi Olympian has admitted his 2022 Olympic gold and 2018 bronze in the freeski halfpipe have contributed to his decision.  He told Mike Hosking he set out with a number of goals when beginning his career at age 12, and he’s now achieved those goals.   “I feel as if the ‘more, more, more’ mentality can often lead to doing damage or leaving a sour taste in your mouth,” Porteous said.  “So I just wanted to call it.”  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Israel’s operation against Iran is expected to "take weeks, not days", as tension escalates between the countries.  224 Iranians and 24 Israelis have been killed since hostilities began after Israel's initial attack on Friday.  Features editor at Jewish News Syndicate, Steve Linde told Mike Hosking Israel has a few days to try to end this, before they alienate the world and go too far.   He says Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to change the face of the Middle East by realigning forces for and against Iran, while the Americans want to strike a deal diplomatically.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government's confident it's getting on top of youth vaping, with more rules coming in today.  New rules come in today including stricter advertising restrictions for vape retailers and a ban on disposable vapes.  It's in an effort to clamp down on youth vaping, with around 10% of teenagers currently regular vapers.  Associate Health Minister Casey Costello told Mike Hosking she believes we'll see further declines in youth vaping.  She says Action for Smokefree data shows youth vaping rates have declined over the last three years.  However, she says New Zealand isn’t ready for a full crackdown, and Australia’s prescription only approach won’t work here.   She says Pasifika and Māori continue to have the highest smoking rates, and reducing availability for those who aren't engaging with the health system is problematic.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government's work to tackle emergency housing appears to be paying off. Only about 500 families remain in emergency housing after one year of the Government's Priority One policy.  It bumps families to the top of the social housing waiting list if they have dependent children and have spent more than 12 weeks in emergency housing.   Almost a thousand families with more than two thousand children have been moved from emergency housing motel rooms into homes, since the policy took effect  Housing Minister Chris Bishop told Mike Hosking they're well on the way to solving the problem.     He says under Labour's government, there were more than four-thousand families living in motels permanently.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As much as we tried to celebrate last week's excellent economic numbers regarding the food and fibre, the bullishness of Fieldays, the boost in elective surgery and the boom in teacher numbers, what you can't ignore is the manufacturing read for April. It hit a brick wall. It fell over six points and is below the 50 point expansionary mark. A couple of key things about that - while services and sentiment and spending figures have been bad manufacturing, for months now, has been on the increase each and every month. It has been above 50, it has been growing. It has been a significant green shoot in the overall economic picture. The other thing is employment. That is a sub category that had its biggest reversal in the history of the index. What makes this worse? For those of you saying "oh, it will be Trump", the experts don’t think it is. So the big question is, how much of it is the world? Remember the World Bank last week reduced global growth all over the place. So how much of it is the world vs how much of it is the U.S? Has New Zealand Inc hit a tough spot? For trainspotters it was suggested fairly far and wide at the time that April and May seemed to be an issue. All the momentum that we felt we had at the start of the year had suddenly run out of puff. These numbers would tend to suggest the vibe was real. Ironically this week we get the GDP figures for Q1, that’s January, February and March, and the broad consensus is that we will have seen good growth. They think about 0.7% for the quarter. If you annualised that out it gives you a number very close to 3%, which anyone would take in this troubled and turbulent world. But we can't annualise it out, not with manufacturing numbers like this. It might be short term. It may involve the Reserve Bank and that idea they had that things were a bit neutral and therefore not needing a gee up. They may well be hopelessly wrong. Politically it’s a hole in the head the Government don’t need, because its not like they aren't pedalling fast. But when one of your major economic reads that was good, now isn't, it doesn’t take an economics degree to recognise a big, fat, red flag. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Prime Minister has laid out his goals ahead of his visit to China. Chris Luxon is about to leave for Shanghai with a business delegation, before making his way to Beijing to meet with President Xi Jinping. Luxon says he also wants to broaden the countries' trade relationship with a focus on red meat, tourism and education. LISTEN ABOVE OR WATCH BELOW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Monday the 16th of June, the police are starting the ball rolling on putting bodycams on our frontline police. The Prime Minister is gearing up to head to China but before that he pops in to talk the economy, balancing world egos and why we still have 10 sick days. Andrew Saville and Jason Pine talk the F1, the Super Rugby semifinals and Auckland City getting pumped by Bayern Munich. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Government makes another step forward in upping Chinese visitor numbers, with a tweak to visa settings and processes.  From November, the Government will trial a visa waiver status for Chinese passport holders travelling from Australia, allowing them to visit for up to three months. They must have a valid Australian visitor, work, student or family visa, with the trial lasting a year.  Immigration lawyer Arran Hunt says the number of Chinese visitors hasn't bounced back post-Covid, but believes this is a step in the right direction.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The death toll continues to grow as the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates. Israel's initial attack on Friday has triggered a response from Iran as the two countries exchange air strikes. According to The Associated Press, at least 406 Iranians have been killed with 654 wounded compared to the Israeli death toll of 13. Israeli Journalist, Gideon Levy told Mike Hosking this is bearable for the short term, but what is unbearable is if it goes on for months. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Police Minister Mark Mitchell says told Mike Hosking that police bodycams would help clear up misconceptions in the field. He says he was talking to a young constable who was coward punched and a body camera would've made for compelling evidence. Police Commissioner Richard Chambers wants the cameras to be implemented after a decision was put off last year.  Police are still looking into ways to deal with transparency issues laid bare when new tasers for frontline officers didn't include a camera. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US police have found a 'hit list' of names after they confronted the man who shot and killed Democrat Melissa Hortman and her husband in the state of Minnesota. US correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking that the 57-year-old suspect got away - but police were able to search his vehicle. He says they found a papers listing around 70 names of other targets - as well as anti-abortion material.  The gunman had also shot another Democratic senator and his wife in their home - they both survived.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An increasing number of regional conflicts - as well as Donald Trump's tariffs, are threatening the global economy.  Westpac Group Chief Economist Luci Ellis told Mike Hosking that she believes the tariffs were economic self-harm. She says they still threaten the US economy and trade patterns will continue to change, but other countries aren't going to escalate. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's hardly a surprise, is it? Adrian looks at what Nicola is offering to run the place, packs a sad, and is off.  It’s a pathetic end to a tumultuous period in which we, the people who paid him, deserved an awful lot better.  The fact this information on the Orr resignation had to be dragged out of the bank by way of the Official Information Act, the rules of which were ignored as the bank failed to meet deadlines, shows you just what sort of place we are dealing with.  How you conduct yourself is critical. It's critical to all of us and even more critical the further up the totem pole you are.  There's nothing wrong with Adrian quitting if he genuinely believed the money being offered to run the bank wasn’t enough.  But you do it with some dignity.  You quit, you serve out your period, you offer reasons for you quitting and you move on with life.  In doing it that way you give us all an insight into what sort of human being you are. And in this case, you might well have been able to give us insight into how your organisation runs, what its thinking is, what the gap is between the bank and the Government and why you might be right, and they might be wrong.  It doesn’t have to turn into a scrap or a fallout. Just a series of adult ideas as to why people might see things at odds to each other.  If Covid taught us nothing else, it taught us the critical role of a central bank and what sort of people run it.  The way Adrian ran it is well documented and the general view held by many is widely traversed. But the sudden departure was another insight into why Adrian did things the way he did.  He is petulant. You don’t leave out of the blue and in silence. You don’t bail on hosting an international finance conference having said you were looking forward to it.  It's toys and sandpits with Adrian and then obfuscation from the bank when a few simple questions were asked.  If you can't conduct yourself, and the bank can't conduct themselves, with any great level of clarity, transparency and professionalism, is it any wonder the economy got run over the way it did?  Ol' Adrian won't be missed. But you would have hoped for something a bit more sophisticated on the way out.   See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big-ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.    Ryan Fox: 9/10  Living the dream by winning. It rarely gets better, and another chance at a big one over this weekend.    Greta Thunberg: 2/10  Not kidnapped, just fantastically annoying. She is a good example of where your annoyingness outweighs your effect on your cause.    Adrian Orr: 4/10  Local disappointment of the week is both him and the Reserve Bank over their petty mucking around over simple questions. When its petty at the top, it leads nowhere productive. They should be embarrassed.    The Warriors: 8/10  Can't stop winning. Another two points this weekend with the bye and two more after that against the Panthers. This is the journey to the promised land. This is our year.    Los Angeles: 3/10  Was that an overreaction looking for a skirmish, or what? You can only show us an intersection of a few hundred masked try hards and pretend it’s a "thing" for so long.    Businesses and franchises: 7/10  Record sales. We're selling businesses like hotcakes. That's got to be a good sign for confidence.    LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Census, and some of those numbers released this week, really are a treasure trove of not just fact and stats but, I would have thought, hope.  That astonishing move south, with the tens of thousands who have headed to the South Island and particularly Christchurch, is a framework for what the whole country could be.  A few choice decisions, a bit of get-up-and-go, a bit of cooperation and a bit of vision. There are parts of this country that clearly have it right and are clearly magnets in their own right.  Then there were stats around work. That very word "work" is a problem  It's reported as a negative. "More and more people are working longer", indicating you want to stop.  You want to stop of course because of the pension. You can stop anytime you like. There is no law around age and work.  But the stats and the reportage of work and age are increasingly out of date. As we live longer, of course we are going to work longer. Why wouldn’t we?  Work is actually good for us. Work is fun. Work is rewarding, financially and emotionally.  We are challenged by work. Work should not be a thing that you expect to end. It’s the same as health and fitness, or diet, or leisure.  50% of us are working between the ages of 65 and 69. A quarter of us are working between ages 70 and 74. Even 10% of workers are over 75.  And why not?  If you resent it and have to work, fair enough. If psychically you are knackered, sure, play bowls.  But the days of Grandad and a gold watch and one company for life and the company pension are long gone.  We need to break the psychological hold Superannuation has over us. It's not even a lot of money.  If it was lotto I'd get it. But it’s a bare minimum and it speaks, sadly, to this country's productivity and work ethic that too many are too reliant on it.  Working longer will actually lead to better health outcomes.  Hopefully the kids, who the Census tells us are working more as well with teenagers having never been more employed, will enter the workforce with a view that work is for life, because we see work for the good, not work for the drudgery.  If you happen to be working into your old age and doing it in the South Island, that’s not a bad life at all.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

India's set to lead an investigation into a plane crash in Ahmedabad, which has killed at least 290.  The Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner crashed onto a doctor's hostel right after take-off, heading for London's Gatwick Airport.   According to the Telegraph, the last words from the pilot were 'Mayday, no thrust, losing power, unable to lift'.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking this is the first fatal crash by this particular Boeing model, of which there’s about a thousand in service around the world.  He says experts believe the black box should contain a significant amount of information about the crash, and no doubt Boeing and US safety inspectors will play some role in the investigation.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Some good news for the New Zealand fashion industry.  The once troubled NZ Fashion Week has secured a three-year partnership deal with Giltrap, ensuring its future for the next few years.  It comes after the event was cancelled in 2024 due to economic uncertainty.  Owner Feroz Ali told Mike Hosking it’s going to be an amazing show this year.  He says they have a packed schedule for the five day event, with emerging designers, new designers, and designers that probably haven’t shown for 15 years all returning to the runway.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week there was a bit of on-air marriage counselling as Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson joined Mike to Wrap the Week that was.  Kate’s been a bit sick this week, which means things have been a bit rough in their house.  Also on the agenda were some interesting stats about the survivors of plane crashes.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Friday 13th of June, do we need to be concerned about the US reviewing AUKUS?   It’s a big weekend for sports with the Super Rugby semifinals and one of the most iconic motorsport races in the world, Le Mans. We speak to Brendon Hartley ahead of the race.  Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson cover off Mike's marital issues, and some interesting stats on how many people survive plane crashes.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand motor racing driver Brendon Hartley is stunned by the quality of competition heading into this weekend's Le Mans 24-hour endurance race.  The prestigious race has been operating since 1928 and the winner is the car that travels the greatest distance in a 24-hour period around the 13.6km circuit.  The biggest names in vehicle manufacturing are taking part —with Genesis, Ford and McLaren joining the party next year— and Hartley says the level of driver is insane.  He told Mike Hosking every single driver in their category are paid professionals and top class drivers.  “I would argue there’s... you can’t find a race anywhere in the world where you have so many of the world’s top drivers all in one place at the same time.”   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The number of public servants working within Government is down slightly on this time last year.   But new Public Service data shows measured against last quarter, the number of civil servants has increased.   The data shows there were 63,238 people employed by the Government as of March this year – 2045 fewer people compared to March 2024, but an increase of 269 on the last quarter.   Economist Cameron Bagrie told Mike Hosking government personnel spending in that same period has also increased by 3.1%.  He says that the big change in the fiscal stance, the tightening of the reins, have not been seen yet, and the question is if it will really be delivered.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Crusaders’ 27-year perfect home playoff record is on the line again as they size up the Blues for a place in the Super Rugby Pacific final.  It’s week two of the playoffs and the two teams will be facing off in tonight in Christchurch.   After that, the ‘lucky losers’, the Chiefs, will take on the Brumbies in Hamilton.  Crusaders CEO Colin Mansbridge told Mike Hosking that Super Rugby Pacific CEO Jack Mesley keeps banging on about wanting jeopardy in every match, and last week’s clash between the Blues and the Chiefs was a good example.  He says the Blues’ win surprised most of them, but that’s the nature of the game – you don’t know who’s going to win, and that’s what you want.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Corrections is prepared for a projected spike in our prison numbers.  The Ministry of Justice projects the prison population will increase 36% by 2035 to more than 14,000 people.  New policies such as the Sentencing Reform Act and the reinstatement of the Three Strikes law are pushing the projected growth.  Corrections Custodial Services Commissioner Leigh Marsh told Mike Hosking they prepare for a lot of variability in prison populations.  He says in 2018 we had more than 10,000 prisoners, followed by a drop and now another rise.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A former defence minister doesn't believe the US will walk away from the AUKUS security pact altogether.  The Pentagon's started a review of the agreement between Australia, the UK, and the US, which New Zealand remains open to being involved in.  Officials will assess whether the deal fits with Donald Trump's America First agenda.  Wayne Mapp told Mike Hosking the US remains fundamentally committed to the partnership.  He says Australia is America's closest ally in the Asia Pacific —possibly its closest ally in the whole world— and they're hardly going to trash that relationship.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As part of Fieldays, Federated Farmers have done the most interesting survey.  It is a snapshot, like them all. But the numbers for one lot are so stark, alarm bells should be ringing.  So, who would a farmer vote for? You would say National and you would be right.  Broadly the farming community is conservative, always has been.  That, partly, is because they are their own masters, they are hard workers, they are self-reliant, they are at the cutting edge of the economy, and they know how life works.  So 54% said they'd vote for National and 19% said ACT.  Here is where it gets interesting and/or alarming.  8% said they'd vote for NZ First. They're the only party with farmers at about the same level as they are nationally.  Labour is on 3%. How bad is that? Even with a margin of error, even with a massive margin of error, Labour should be shocked at that figure.  Every party has their sweet spot, some parties more overtly so, e.g. the Greens and environmentalists, or communists.  ACT have some upmarket urban liberals. New Zealand First having a provincial number higher than the city wouldn’t surprise me  But National and Labour, as major parties should be, by their very nature are broad-based. After all, it is Labour and National, and Labour and National alone, that will lead any given Government on any given day.  You have to at least have a half-decent level of support even in your weakest areas.  Farming is particularly important, given we are a farming nation, the foreign receipts we get from the land and the value of our free trade deals.  To have a major party so out of touch with such a large sector strikes me as being astonishing, if not embarrassing, if not unheard of.  My suspicion is the current version of Labour is particularly unpalatable, and this is going to be their major issue next year.  For all voters the damage done to the country is still fresh in most of our minds, but no more so than farmers. The climate obsession, special land area designation, Three Waters with Māori overreach, no gas, and more paperwork.  Farmers hated it. A lot of us hated it.  But in general polls Labour are competitive. On the land they are pariahs.  At 3% that is a massive hill for Hipkins and co to climb between now and October next year. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jimmy Carr is well known for a couple of things, his controversial comedy and distinctive laugh chief among them. And he’s bringing both to Kiwi audiences early next year, travelling right across the country, stopping in 13 different cities.  He’s got a prolific career in standup, as well as being a household name in UK television, not only hosting an array of panel shows, but a regular guest on many of the rest.  Carr has a busy schedule, and he told Mike Hosking that he works as much as he possibly can, as his work is such a joyful thing.  “If I have a night off, what am I doing? I’m sitting at home having my tea,” he said.  “If I come out and do a show, it’s such a joyful thing."  “I also think I do have a propensity to get cancelled once in a while,” Carr confessed, the comedian having seen his fair share of controversies.  “So you never know when your last one’s going to be.”  When it comes to cancel culture, Carr is a big advocate for freedom of speech.  “I’m not for everyone, and edgy jokes, there’s you know, limits of it, sometimes it’s not for everyone,” he told Hosking.  “But the whole cancel culture thing, you go, well, as long as you don’t get cancelled by your own audience, I think you’re golden.”  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 12th of June, it's good news Thursday as we see good news for wool, good news for our food and fibre exports, and good news for our elective surgery waitlist.  You won't believe how many people are leaving Auckland and the North Island to head to Christchurch and the South Island.   Award-winning comedian Jimmy Carr is heading this way, but before that he's on to talk cancel culture, his love of New Zealand, and his life of the tour.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Christchurch is acting as a magnet for thousands of Kiwis making the move down South.  The latest Stats NZ census data shows 85,000 people moved to the South Island between 2018 and 2023.  Around half of those have gone to the Canterbury region.  ChristchurchNZ Chief Executive Ali Adams told Mike Hosking the Garden City's versatility is being recognized.  She says people are realizing you can have a brilliant career and a great life.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Health New Zealand is outsourcing more elective operations to private facilities to ease strain on the system.   The agency aims to deliver more than 10,500 additional elective procedures by the end of June, by partnering with private hospitals to expand surgical capacity.  The target is within reach with more than 8,600 procedures complete since March.     Christchurch colorectal and general surgeon Chris Wakeman told Mike Hosking that although he gets paid less to do public work, this is the future of healthcare.   He says it's so much more efficient and you can do a lot more work.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Todd McClay says surging value and supply is behind the rise in food and fibre export revenue.  The latest forecasts project export earnings of $59.9 billion for the year ending later this month.   It's now on track to reach $65.7 billion by 2029.  Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay told Mike Hosking we're seeing sectors like Horticulture raise exports by 20%.  He says for the first time ever we saw Zespri sell $5 billion worth of kiwifruit around the world.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Italy’s squeezed middle class could be getting a breather.  Tax cuts are at the top of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s agenda, as she says the middle class is the backbone of the Italian production system.  She says they want to make the system fairer.   Italy Correspondent Jo McKenna told Mike Hosking she’s reduced the tax rate from around 26% to 24% so far.   She says they’re likely going to need to do a lot more, because many are still struggling financially.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Finance Minister says a move to require wool carpets in state housing makes financial sense.  Nicola Willis has announced a change to Kainga Ora's supplier agreement that will see it re-open its previously nylon-only carpet tender process.  From the start of next month, all public entities will also be required to use woollen fibres where practical and appropriate.  Willis told Mike Hosking officials have told her it makes sense for Kainga Ora to make this change.  She says it's cost-neutral, and it performs well across a number of other dimensions.  Nicola Willis says the Reserve Bank should never be exempt from cost-cutting across the public sector.  Newly released documents show Adrian Orr's abrupt resignation as Governor came after he was denied the Budget allocation he was seeking.  The Finance Minister says the central bank still has the funding it requires to do its statutory duties.  She told Hosking the Reserve Bank can't operate as a "gilded palace" – it needs to be fiscally responsible, like all other government departments.  Willis says any idea that the Reserve Bank doesn't need to abide by the same funding constraints as other Government agencies is wrong.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Unrest is spreading in the US over immigrant deportations.  Donald Trump is sending hundreds of US Marines and has ordered 2000 more National Guard troops to go to LA's immigration protests.  California Governor Gavin Newsom's called the US President's orders deranged and has filed a lawsuit.  US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking of the 2000 National Guard troops deployed, only 315 were mission assigned, the other 1700 having no particular responsibility.  He says that 100 arrests have been made, but no charges have been laid.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So, the great rates upset has begun to unfold.  Auckland this week got its long-awaited council valuations.  Why people get excited about them, I have no idea.  It's a rough guesstimate by a council. It takes into account the broadest of criteria, but people seem to live and die by them.  The upset of course has come from the fact that the value of a lot of properties has dropped, while the rates bill is going up. So we get the cost-plus-accounting scandal that is council economic policy exposed.  This is happening all over the country and it's a specific and broad-based problem. It's broad-based because it's inflationary and it's specific because depending on where you are depends on how bad the scandal is.  Auckland properties are down 9% while rates are up over 7%.  In Wellington values are down 24% and rates are up 16%.  Nelson values are down 9% and rates are up 6%, so this whole idea that rates are linked to value is of course complete crap and always has been.  In short, councils are inept and will spend forever, will waste your money forever, will plead poverty forever and will always find something that is critical and needs doing now.  For example, Christchurch got shafted last week by Chris Bishop, when the council rejected the Government's intensification plan.  The council didn’t like it, spent three years and millions of dollars to go back and forward and to achieve what? Nothing. That's council for you.  As Auckland mayor Wayne Brown said, "it is what it is". He's right because he knows a couple of home truths; no one is turning up for local body elections, so very few people will be held to account, and he also knows a lot of people will moan but ultimately do nothing about it.  If ever there was a reason to get exercised over the way we are being played, this is it.  Your asset has dropped but the bill is up. The bill, in theory, is based on the asset value. Nowhere else in life is this scam played and gotten away with, apart from local body politics.  We have too many councils, too much representation, too many boards, too much incompetence, and every year the bill for it rises.  Democracy only works if you take part.  What better reason can there be this year than to get your voting paper, look at the value of your property, look at your rate rise, put a name to the con and vote them out. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A new rideshare option is skidding into the New Zealand market.   Bolt, hailing from Europe, is promising better deals for both drivers and customers, while challenging the duopoly that currently dominates.   They’re first launching in Auckland, aiming to bring a breath of fresh air to the market.  General Manager Adam Muirson told Mike Hosking that for the last couple of years, the competition has been stagnant at best, leading to increasing prices, limited choice, and decreasing service levels.  He says that there was a growing sense of frustration among drivers at that lack of competition, and the sheer number of applications they’ve received leading up to the launch has reinforced that.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s unlikely New Zealand will be in for a repeat of last year’s power shortage.  Our winter stocks are in better shape thanks to improved lake levels, extra gas supplies, and an enlarged coal stockpile has added security to the system.   And although customers are still battling high energy prices, a major government review is expected in the coming weeks.  Meridian CEO Mike Roan told Mike Hosking that they’re deep into investing in the sector so they can overcome the challenge represented by lost gas supplies.  He says they’re currently stabilising the impact, and in the long term, they’re in good shape.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 11th of June, we've got a new mental health report that shows the $1.9 billion spent has seemingly been wasted, and we talk all things energy with Meridian.    Fieldays begins today and is sure to be successful, considering how well the rural sector has been doing of late.   Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell talk the new stalking laws, the regulatory standards bill, and solar power on Politics Wednesday.  Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The select committee process has proven useful in substantially strengthening anti-stalking laws.  Originally proposals on making it an offence had a maximum penalty of five years in prison, capturing three specified acts within one-year.   But it'll now be triggered after two acts within two years.  Labour's Police spokesperson Ginny Anderson told Mike Hosking it's an example of why the process is an important part of our democracy.  She says it's been great to work collaboratively, to listen to submissions, to understand what Police can do and to make the changes to strengthen the law.  Police Minister Mark Mitchell told Hosking that police take these things extremely seriously, and they now have the tools to be able to give a meaningful response.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fieldays kicks off at Mystery Creek today.  The rural sector’s somewhat bullish from its record profits across dairy and red meat, and pundits are expecting farmers to be “speaking with their wallets”.  Big crowds are expected, with many looking to take advantage of the new tax rebate on the big ticket items.  CEO of National Fieldays Richard Lindroos told Mike Hosking it’s the largest agribusiness event in the southern hemisphere, with over 100,000 going through the gates over the four days.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Experts say specialist addiction and mental health services need rapid improvement.   New research from the Mental Health and Wellbeing Commission has found three New Zealanders die every week due to accidental and preventable drug overdose, with fatalities up 88% from 2016 to 2023.  At the same time, despite growing demands, fewer people are seeking specialist help.  Commission CEO Karen Orsborn told Mike Hosking the biggest concern is the falling access to mental health and addiction services.  She says they’re seeing high vacancy rates, particularly for specialist staff and psychiatrists, and that has a big impact on the system.  Orsborn says that’s where they want to see some faster action.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand's $47.2 billion franchise sector is being celebrated.  Today marks the first World Franchise Day.  The model first took shape in New Zealand in the 1970s – with now almost 550 franchised brands including in accommodation, hospitality, education, childcare and retail.  Franchise Association Chair Brad Jones told Mike Hosking they’ve had some great growth in the sector over the last few years.   He says they’re 11% of New Zealand’s GDP, and if motor vehicle sales and retail fuel are included, that brings them to over $73 billion – 17% of GDP.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Assurance stronger anti-stalking laws are the right move to protect victims.  Originally proposals on making it an offence had a maximum penalty of five years in prison, capturing three specified acts within one-year.   But following the Select Committee process it'll now be triggered after two acts within two years.  Chief Victims' Adviser to the Government Ruth Money told Mike Hosking the change allows greater prevention and targets the pattern stalking follows.  She says it's not about charging the moping boyfriend, who's sent a non-harmful text and is feeling a bit sad.  Money says it’s important earlier intervention can be taken, and police need the powers because stalking behaviour can escalate into violence and death.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We got the press release recently from the Restaurant Association where they said there were flat sales, cost pressures and regional divergence was the theme. I have changed my mind a bit on hospitality. More broadly, I wonder whether there are too many vested interests in this country who get in the way of real progress. The hospitality story has been a long, arduous and well told one. We hear hospitality is shot, hospitality is a disaster, no one makes money and no one wants to work in hospitality. Yet my increasing observation is that is not true. If you take a very large industry as a whole and average everything out, you might well be able to find some dour times. But what is increasingly obvious, not just from personal experience but a lot of anecdotal expert opinions as well, is a lot of hospitality is not only fine, it's actually going quite well. The thing about hospitality is it is malleable. You are not a log exporter reliant on a single market to either buy, or not buy, your tree. In hospitality you can vary what it is you are offering and what I see is a lot of people doing really good things and, as a result, they are doing very nicely thank you. It took us over a week to get the last table for lunch the other day at a local that, in our experience, has changed hands and boosted their product and offering and as a result has gone from a quiet, regional operator to a booming tourism business rushed off its feet. Same place, same name, new product - whole different result. The other thing about hospitality is it doesn’t require any skill to enter. Anyone can buy a café, and a lot do, and I have seen them, often immigrants, as it's an easy entry point. They take over a going concern and wreck it, change a menu, employ the family, kill the service and they're dead in a week. We are over supplied of course. So in your area where you have a choice of a dozen places, only two have to be good before they boom and the others wilt. So the Restaurant Association telling us things aren't flash is not the real story. Bits aren't flash, but then if you are not up to much in the first place - they never will be.   LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The problem with committing to things that may well come back to haunt you, is down the track, at some point, the mistake starts to hit you in the face a bit and some hard decisions are required.  My sense of it is we have become too reliant on pine trees to meet the Paris climate target.  The sheep farmers have worked that out as the protests around land conversion have once again been reignited, with posters put up by the Meat and Wool folk with the line: "I am not the problem".  Since 1982 we have gone from 70 million sheep to 25 million.  In the last seven years a quarter of a million hectares has been swapped from sheep to trees.  This of course was always going to happen. What's the easiest way to meet a target on carbon? Trees.  Cutting and slashing, whether its farm production or the economy, in general was never going to be palatable. So trees were easy.  But you might have noticed a couple of major things have happened;  1) Paris looks increasingly shaky in terms of people meeting targets, or indeed people even being interested in meeting targets.  2) Stuff grown on the land with legs is fetching very good money all over the world and as far as us earning a living goes, we have never made more from farming.  Carbon offsetting, which is what planting trees is called, has restrictions in other countries. But I bet you anything you want that other countries aren't as reliant on sheep and cows as we are.  We used to have tourism back us up. But last week's numbers tell the sad story - dairy is worth $20 billion, while tourism is at $12 billion. Even offal comes in at $9 billion.  Tourism used to vie for first place, hence the Government threw another $13 million at it yesterday to try and attract another 70,000 or so new visitors.  Trees also kill communities. Farming is life. A forest isn't.  As laudable as Paris was all those years ago, if we had thought about it, if we had been less evangelical, we might have stopped to think just what it was we were asking of a small economy.  And the simple truth is we were asking so much, a quick shortcut like trees was always going to be adopted with alacrity.  Saving the planet, as people get tossed off the land, is not an equation we should be proud of. As the protest poster with the photo of the sheep says, I am not the problem. And it's right.  The zealots are.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Warriors legend Shaun Johnson will be back on our screens – this time, without a rugby ball in hand.  He’s supercharging his fledgling media career, fronting a new weekly TV show dedicated to the analysis of rugby league.  Johnson signed a new deal with Sky TV for ‘League Lounge’, which launches Wednesday, and will broadcast on Sky and Sky Sport Now, with delayed release on Sky Open and YouTube.   He told Mike Hosking he wants to speak to what the audience might be feeling and seeing from the game and help educate them.  Johnson says that if he can offer a bit of perspective as to what may be going on with players’ performances, it might buy a bit of time to start seeing better results.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 10th of June, it's good news Tuesday, so we have good news on our teaching numbers, business sales, and tourism.  But there’s bad news regarding corruption – we are way too complacent, and a new report suggests organised crime is corrupting our officials at a lot of different levels.  Warriors legend Shaun Johnson has a new midweek league show coming out, so we talk to him about League Lounge and life after professional sport.    Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.