Ep. 136 - Election Martingales and Microsoft’s Milestone

In today’s episode, Max talks about why election predictions that veer too far off from 50% and have high variance over time carry little weight. We learn several arguments why, plus we learn about the idea of a probability martingale. Also, it’s been 25 years since the introduction of Windows 95. Why is that interesting and what does it say about the nature of human computer interaction and tech marketing.

Get full access to The Local Maximum at localmaximum.substack.com/subscribe