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John and I continue to read and comment on Rules for Radicals

$200 billion is not a rounding error, it’s a signal that Washington is settling in for a long Iran war while pretending it can buy its way out of the consequences. We walk through the Pentagon’s latest funding push, why leaders keep hinting the price tag will rise, and what “replenishing stockpiles” really means when Patriot interceptors, THAAD systems, and advanced radar take years to replace. If you care about defense spending, Pentagon accountability, and the defense industrial base, this conversation connects the dollars to the hard limits nobody wants to admit. We also challenge the messaging used to sell escalation, including the way faith, family, and fallen service members get pulled into public arguments for continuing the fight. From there, we widen the frame to the region: reporting from Lebanon, the dangers journalists face in active war zones, and how quickly a conflict sold as contained starts to spread across multiple fronts. Then we follow the money and the politics. Polling suggests many Americans think the war benefits Israel more than the United States, and we dig into what that could mean for the GOP, for Democrats who won’t clearly break from pro-war consensus, and for officials inside government who try to dissent. Finally, we get into the oil-price panic moves: “break the glass” plans, sanction reversals, and why talk of letting Iranian oil flow to keep prices down exposes how fragile the strategy has become, especially after strikes tied to South Pars and the hit to Qatar LNG capacity. If this helped you see the bigger picture, subscribe for more, share the episode with someone who argues about foreign policy, and leave a review with the one question you still can’t shake.

The part that doesn’t get said out loud often enough is this: you can be “aligned” in a war and still be on a collision course. We dig into why U.S. goals in Iran and Israel’s goals in Iran don’t just differ, they actively clash and how that clash shows up in assassinations that erase diplomatic options and strikes that look designed to cripple Iran’s long-term ability to function as a state. We also zoom out to the stories getting buried while everyone watches missiles and maps. Using recent UN reporting and on-the-ground dynamics, we talk about accelerated West Bank settlement expansion, displacement, settler violence, and what happens to Gaza when aid is cut and the world’s attention drifts. The bigger takeaway is uncomfortable: regional escalation can create cover for permanent facts on the ground in Palestine, even as leaders insist their focus is elsewhere. Then we bring it home to the U.S. economy and politics: the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil volatility, Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases, and the growing risk that oil trade shifts away from the dollar toward the yuan. We also walk through polling that shows Americans turning against the war and why even pro-Trump respondents say they want a fast exit. Finally, we react to Tulsi Gabbard’s Senate Intelligence Committee testimony, the threat framing that lumps Iran with nuclear powers, and the pointed exchange over whether Iran posed an “imminent” nuclear threat. If you want clearer thinking on U.S. foreign policy, the Israel Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz, and the real incentives pushing escalation, subscribe, share this with a friend, and leave a review so more people can find the show.

New Chasing Ghosts Podcast episode is live Monday 30 April 2026. Ep 080 “The Cargo Cult of Martial Belief, Wishcasting and Bloodshed” Episode 100! Well, when I combine the 20 episodes of WarNotes with the CG podcasts but a chance to pop the bubbly anyway. Today we discuss the critical lack of critical thinking that has led the US into the unenviable position of being an extraordinarily 20th century fighting force nor fit for purpose for 21st century peer combat. It will get worse. I’ll offer some more recommendations and a path forward. Buppert’s Law of Military Topography: “Mountainous terrain held by riflemen who know what they are about cannot be militarily defeated.” I have been scarce on the X but you can find daily brain-zephyrs from me at my Substack Notes section where I am not distracted by the time vampire here. You can find the episodes on your favorite podcast vendor. Notes: http://cgpodcast.substack.com/notes Email me at [email protected]

Download Audio. Jason Jones of the Vulnerable People Project returns to the show to give Scott an update on how his organization is working to rescue and rehabilitate the people impacted directly by the escalating violence the Israeli government and Israeli settlers are unleashing across the Middle East. Discussed on the show: “Iran was nowhere close to a nuclear bomb, experts say” (Scientific American) Jason Jones is a film producer, author, activist, popular podcast host, and dedicated human rights worker. And he is the founder and president of The Vulnerable People Project. Subscribe to his Substack. Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

Download Audio. Scott interviews Dan Vergano of Scientific American about an article he wrote exposing how scientifically absurd the claim that Iran was close to even having the ability to fully weaponize the enriched Uranium they possessed was when Washington and Tel Aviv launched this war. Discussed on the show: “Iran was nowhere close to a nuclear bomb, experts say” (Scientific American) Dan Vergano is senior editor, Washington, D.C., at Scientific American. He has previously written for Grid News, BuzzFeed News, National Geographic and USA Today. He is chair of the New Horizons committee for the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing and a journalism award judge for both the American Association for the Advancement of Science and the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

Download Audio. Scott interviews Patrick Pillow about Anatomy of a Regime Change, the series he’s writing on the so-called Color Revolutions. While Iraq and Afghanistan get the most attention, the majority of Washington-backed regime change attempts since the end of the Cold War have taken the form of these CIA-organized political revolutions. Scott and Pillow walk through the specifics of several examples and discuss the importance of this often overlooked aspect of American foreign policy. Discussed on the show: Libertarian Overwatch The New Cold War: Revolutions, Rigged Elections, and Pipeline Politics in the Former Soviet Union by Mark A. MacKinnon Patrick Pillow runs Libertarian Overwatch on Substack. Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

John and I continue reading and commentary of Rules for Radicals.

Joe Kent, Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, has resigned in protest over the Iran war, becoming the first senior official to break ranks. In his resignation, Kent stated bluntly that Iran posed no “imminent threat” to the United States — directly contradicting the administration’s justification for military action. A resignation letter from inside Trump’s national security world drops a bombshell claim: Iran posed no imminent threat, and the rush into war was fueled by pressure from Israel and a powerful pro-war lobby in the United States. We take the letter seriously, line by line, because it puts the core question on the table that Washington tries to dodge, who is steering US foreign policy when the stakes are life, death, and a wider Middle East war. We also talk about the blowback. Tulsi Gabbard posts support for the war, even though opposing “forever wars” has been central to her political identity, and we unpack what that says about loyalty, ambition, and the limits of dissent inside an administration. Then we address Trump’s response, including his claims about the Iran nuclear deal and why so many experts argue the 2015 agreement imposed real constraints through inspections and verification. If you care about Iran nuclear weapons, sanctions relief, and the actual mechanics of nuclear diplomacy, this part matters. Finally, we break down the media messaging war, including Ben Shapiro’s reaction, and why dismissing everything as “conspiracy” is not a substitute for evidence. We zoom out to the bigger picture: congressional war powers, misinformation campaigns, and the dangerous lesson wars can teach targeted states, that only a nuclear deterrent prevents regime change. Subscribe, share, and leave a review, then tell us what you think: who is really driving this war, and what would ending it require?

Download Audio. Scott brings Larry Johnson back on the show three weeks after his last appearance, where Johnson predicted the war with Iran hours before it kicked off. Scott and Johnson examine what’s happened, dig into who’s really calling the shots here, address some of the nonsensical talking points used to make the Iranians out as a unique evil and anticipate what the global consequences of this war will be. Discussed on the show: “​​The Failure of US and Israeli Air Defense” (Sonar21) Larry C. Johnson is a former CIA officer and intelligence analyst, and a former planner and advisor at the US State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism. Follow his analysis at Sonar21. Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

Download Audio. Scott interviews Joe Kent, the former director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, about what drove him to resign. Kent explains how he saw the Israelis mislead Trump about an Iranian nuclear threat and the supposed fragility of the regime. He also backs up some of the widely attacked claims in his resignation letter about Israeli involvement in getting the US into previous wars in the region, reflects on what the real goals of the Israeli government are with this war, sheds light on Scott’s concerns about significant blowback terrorism in the US and more. Discussed on the show: Kent’s letter of resignation Joe Kent is a retired Army Special Forces soldier who served as the director of the National Counterterrorism Center in Trump’s second term until he resigned in 2026 over the war with Iran. Follow him on Twitter @joekent16jan19 Audio cleaned up with the Podsworth app: https://podsworth.com Use code HORTON50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Scott Horton Show! For more on Scott’s work: Check out The Libertarian Institute: https://www.libertarianinstitute.org Check out Scott’s other show, Provoked, with Darryl Cooper https://youtube.com/@Provoked_Show Read Scott’s books: Provoked: How Washington Started the New Cold War with Russia and the Catastrophe in Ukraine https://amzn.to/47jMtg7 (The audiobook of Provoked is being published in sections at https://scotthortonshow.com) Enough Already: Time to End the War on Terrorism: https://amzn.to/3tgMCdw Fool’s Errand: Time to End the War in Afghanistan https://amzn.to/3HRufs0 Follow Scott on X @scotthortonshow And check out Scott’s full interview archives: https://scotthorton.org/all-interviews This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: Roberts and Roberts Brokerage Incorporated https://rrbi.co Moon Does Artisan Coffee https://scotthorton.org/coffee; Tom Woods’ Liberty Classroom https://www.libertyclassroom.com/dap/a/?a=1616 and Dissident Media https://dissidentmedia.com You can also support Scott’s work by making a one-time or recurring donation at https://scotthorton.org/donate/https://scotthortonshow.com or https://patreon.com/scotthortonshow

The Strait of Hormuz is the kind of geopolitical pressure point that can turn a regional fight into a worldwide economic shock, and the official story coming out of Washington doesn’t always match what markets and missiles are signaling. We sit down with Larry Johnson to cut through the talking points and ask what’s actually happening as Iran keeps leverage in the Persian Gulf, shipping risk climbs, and allies get pulled into a conflict they didn’t choose. We also dig into the battle over the narrative at home. From Tucker Carlson’s claim that the CIA is pursuing a criminal referral over contacts with Iranians, to Trump’s own comments about charging journalists, we talk plainly about free speech, press freedom, and how fear-based messaging can be used to sell escalation. Larry explains what the CIA is supposed to do, what belongs with the FBI, and why intelligence warnings don’t help if leaders refuse to hear them. Then we zoom out to consequences: oil prices, LNG flows, supply chain disruption, and the fertilizer crunch that can become a food problem months from now. We walk through the escalation ladder too, including talk of Karg Island, the practical barriers to a ground invasion, and the unsettling question of nuclear risk if decision-makers corner themselves.

Air defense looks clean on a diagram. In real war, it is messy, conditional, and expensive in ways most people never see until the alarms are late and the interceptors are flying in bunches. We sit down with Daryl Cooper to translate the jargon and show what “layered missile defense” actually means when Iranian ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missile threats pressure the system day after day. We walk through the U.S. missile defense stack in plain English: Aegis on ships, THAAD and Patriot batteries on land, the radar and satellite cueing that stitches everything into one shared track picture, and the uncomfortable truth that each layer covers the weaknesses of the others. We also get into why radar performance depends on physics and conditions, including clutter, sunrise effects, and smoke, and how losing early warning sensors can collapse warning time from minutes to seconds. That shift forces engagements into late mid-course or terminal phase, where hit probabilities drop and the price of staying safe becomes volleys of interceptors per incoming missile. Then we zoom out to the strategy and politics shaping the Iran Israel conflict and the wider Middle East war. We talk saturation tactics, multiple re-entry vehicles, engagement queue limits, and the core economic imbalance where defense often costs far more than offense. Finally, we tackle U.S. foreign policy fallout through the Tomahawk missile controversy and what happens when leaders deny what the weapons, timelines, and target decks can confirm. Subscribe for more deep dives, share this with a friend who wants a clearer view of missile defense and Middle East security, and leave a review with your biggest question after listening.