The De-escalation Trade Roars Back, but Halloween May Get Ghosted

A de-escalation in the tariff sabre rattling between the U.S. and China brought the buyers back into the stock market, lifting it well out of correction territory as investors hope for cooler heads to prevail. But the damage to retail supply chains may have been done as the National Retail Federation warns of a 20% hit to sales if the tariffs remain on core items, and the big ticket holiday spending events like Halloween may be at risk.
Plus, a rare breadth indicator resurfaces as stocks surge, reminding us that we are investing in a headline driven environment.

Resources:
https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/import-cargo-levels-to-drop-sharply-amid-new-tariffs-and-uncertainty

https://www.investopedia.com/what-to-expect-in-the-markets-this-week-april-28-2025-11721321

https://www.hiaonline.org/news/698973/Press-Release---Tariffs-Threaten-to-Cancel-Halloween-and-Cripple-Christmas.htm

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/breadth-thrust-indicator.asp

https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/team-members/ryan-detrick/

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