The Informationist

Hey everyone, super excited to share a replay of my live conversation withMichael Howell during the Substack Market Forecast Summit yesterday.We talked all about global liquidity, factors affecting liquidity, the Fed, the Treasury, and most importantly, how all this can affect the markets and your investments.I hope you enjoy and learn some things, I know I did. Let me know your thoughts and comment below! Talk soon,James ✌️PS. Thank you Mark Connors, Chug, Nick Routon, Eric Schmalzbauer, and many others for tuning in! For those who missed it, you can join the next live video in the app. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.jameslavish.com/subscribe

In this episode, we enter the world of US Treasury operations with a focus on the recent resolution of the debt ceiling—often perceived as crisis averted. Yet, is everything truly back to normal? As the Treasury prepares to refill its coffers, we're going to dissect the mechanics of this operation, the role of bank reserves, the Fed’s reverse repo window, and the underlying complexities that could impact financial markets.Today’s Bullets:* The Treasury General Account* How much does the Treasury need?* Reserves and Reverse Repos* State of the Great Re-Funding This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.jameslavish.com/subscribe

In this episode, we roll up our sleeves and dig into the realm of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities or, as they are more commonly known, Tips, and their close relatives, I-Bonds. Like usual, we take these puzzling topics and break them down into bite-sized, easy-to-understand pieces. We explain what these securities are, the nitty-gritty of how they're priced, and explore whether they deserve a spot in your investment toolbox.Today’s Bullets:* What are TIPS?* What are I-Bonds?* How are they priced?* Are they a good investment? This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.jameslavish.com/subscribe

In this episode, we explore the whirlwind world of hyperinflation: what it is, how it wreaks havoc on economies, and the countries that have fallen prey to its devastating effects. We dive into how markets react during hyperinflation and discuss the potential for the US Dollar, the world's reserve currency, to hyperinflate. Finally, we discuss strategies and steps you can take to safeguard your assets and protect yourself in the unlikely event of such economic turbulence.Today’s Bullets:* What is hyperinflation?* Other currencies that have hyperinflated* What happens to markets in hyperinflation?* Could the USD hyperinflate?* How you can protect yourself This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.jameslavish.com/subscribe

In this episode, we cover the basics of what a recession is and how to recognize one, the Fed's efforts to induce economic contraction through raising rates, the leading indicators of a coming recession, and how to position yourself for a potential recession.Today’s Bullets:* What is a Recession?* Yield Curves* GDP, GDI & Corporate Profits* False Confidence Signals* How to Position Yourself This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.jameslavish.com/subscribe

In this episode, we cover the looming debt ceiling crisis and its consequences, US Treasury borrowing and the risk of default, the implications of years of debt raising and the US Treasury's risk of losing global trust, as well as how to take advantage of resulting market weakness yourself. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.jameslavish.com/subscribe