The Higher Standard

You asked for it and we heard you. Today's episode is a focused single topic edition with a deep dive in to everything you need to know about The Fed. How its Board functions, how they get the positions and more. Of course we had to take a few shots at Neel Kashkari because he often has an opinion that frustrates Chris and Saied. Then as a special ending, we cap the show with an homage to Saied's favorite topic, cryptocurrency. We cover five strange facts about Sam Bankman-Fried that are shockingly true. Stay tuned all the way to the end because some of these will blow you away. Resources: The 5 weirdest Sam Bankman-Fried stories Michael Lewis told to ’60 Minutes’ (Market Watch)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

After a long needed week off of production, the boys are back in the studio. Haroon kicks off the episode by actually making sure that all three red lights are on to ensure that no video or audio will be missed for this reunion episode. Chris spent a week in Kauai and returns to Saied and Haroon with some new found emotional warmth, no jokes about the male anatomy, but plenty of "aloha!" Jumping right in to things, Chris discusses how frustrated he is with the clickbait title and interview by The Fed's Kashkari to Yahoo! Finance. Then Saied and Chris go down a long rabbit hole of what holding rates "higher for longer" actually means for the global economy and not just the United States. For those of you who want to know "Is Saied still coughing every damn episode?" The answer is absolutely and we leave every single one in the show to annoy you as much as it annoys us. Resources:Fed's Kashkari: 40% chance of needing 'meaningfully' higher rates (Yahoo! Finance)What could break under higher-for-longer interest rates? (Reuters)Rising Loan Costs Are Hurting Riskier Companies (Wall Street Journal)The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator rose less than expected in August (CNBC)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Saied, Haroon and Chris wanted to find a way to give back to the THS community and "thank you" all for your support. We know that at times we can't and don't always answer questions in the "DMs" as well as we would like to. So, we posted a Q&A opportunity on our respective Instagram accounts. We were overwhelmed with the wonderful questions asked and we can't thank each and every single one of you enough. This show is literally funded by your small gestures. Honest five star reviews and your engagement make long nights of editing, mixing and mastering audio for streaming and managing social media accounts worth it. The Higher Standard podcast is what is today because you have enabled us to keep going. Since we got so many questions, we will be trying to do more Q&As and make actually attempt to do a live show on YouTube in the not too distant future. Until then, we hope you enjoy the episode. Resources:Everything You Need to Know About the Bond Market (The Motley Fool)10-Year Treasury Bond Yield: What It IS and Why It Matters (Investopedia)How the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note impacts mortgage rates (MCT Trading)Fed’s interest rate history: The federal funds rate from 1981 to the present (Bankrate)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

In a spectacular display of machismo, Saied gives Chris not one, but three separate fist pounds during this sensational episode. Maybe Saied was just happy that the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged? Maybe it was the Fed's terrible track record of forecasting what the economy is likely to do? I guess we will never know, but what you will know for sure after this show is that we may be in the biggest housing bubble ever, Zillow shifted their 2024 home price forecast down and 30-year mortgage rates have in fact hit 8%. Economic data, financial literacy and a healthy portion of fisting. What else could you ask for? Resources:The Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged. Here’s how it impacts your money (CNBC)Take the Fed forecast with a grain of salt. It has a terrible track record (CNBC)Biggest Housing Bubble Ever (Nick Gerli via X)Zillow once again shifts its 2024 home price forecast. Here’s why (Fortune)The Fed would be ‘flying blind’ on interest rate decisions after a government shutdown (CNBC)30-Year Mortgage Rates Rise Again, Flirting with Historic Peak (Investopedia)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Please place all seat back and tray tables in their locked and upright positions, because you're about to go on a long voyage of economic data baby! Saied, Chris and Haroon are back and they have a lot to talk about in this episode. The September 20th Fed announcement hasn't even happened yet and Goldman Sachs is already saying that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in November. So, naturally The Higher Standard had to chime in to the debate. Chris offers up a questionable segue into why a soft landing could not only be elusive, but then explains why the current Fed Policy is costing the Fed between $100 billion and $200 billion themselves. Chris and Saied then dive down deep in to the dark canyon of a hole that is the inverted yield curve where they discuss the wide spread between the 2-year and 10-year treasuries. Which also happens to be at it deepest inversion since 1981. Haroon provide an elegant hypothetical answer to an intimate personal question and legendary investor Jeremy Grantham is ringing alarm bells. Resources:Fed unlikely to raise rates in November, says Goldman Sachs (Reuters)Why a Soft Landing Could Prove Elusive (Wall Street Journal)Fed losses breach $100 billion as interest costs rise (Reuters)Economist says S&P 500 will sink 40% due to recession (Business News)Spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries at deepest inversion since '81 (Reuters)Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham rang the alarm on stocks and recession, warned about the housing market, and hailed Elon Musk's Tesla. Here are his 10 best quotes from a recent event (Business Insider)The bond market has broken the longest time ever with a 10-year field, 3 month inversion at 212 days per Bloomberg (Unusual Whales via Instagram) Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

With an uncharacteristically early recording time, the boys come in extra hot and caffeinated. Saied finally admits to being 1 of the podcast's one star reviews; however, the show did receive a real, legitimate 3 star review from a listener. We wanted to address it head on and talk about the data behind the insurance position which upset someone. They, of course, save the expletive filled rage for the end of the show. This episode covers all the underlying detail of the latest inflation print which continues to show that the real cost of living is likely higher for most consumers. Then Chris and Saied pivot to an article on banks having $1.2 trillion dollars in "hot" deposits which they believe signals a much larger concern. Home prices according to Zillow seem to suggest that there have been tremendous gains still despite even some areas having lived through minor corrections in recent months. What does this mean? Saied and Chris will tell you their thoughts. Make sure to stay tuned all the way to the end because this one gets extra sassy in the last quarter of the show. Resources:Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2023, in one chart (CNBC)Banks Load Up on $1.2 Trillion in Risky ‘Hot’ Deposits (Wall Street Journal)Real incomes fell last year. No wonder Americans were bummed out (Axios)Home price shift, as tracked by the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) (Lance Lambert via X)August core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3%, hotter than expected (CNBC)Fears over access to credit hit highest level in more than a decade, New York Fed survey shows (CNBC)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Haroon has returned and has already put in for his next PTO request in November where he thought he would be visiting the European country of Belize. While discovering that being Muslim is not an ethnicity, we quickly hop on over to a warning issued by JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon. Jamie D is suggesting that it would be a "huge mistake" to think the economy will boom. Yet, at the same time, new data suggests that the fall in home prices may already be over. Confused? Don't be, we explain what we think is happening. All three of us discuss the Fed's own economist's prediction of a "Goldilocks" scenario where we have no recession, low inflation, and positive growth. Then to cap the show Haroon provides some important life advice. Resources:Jamie Dimon says it’s a ‘huge mistake’ to think economy will boom with so many risks out there (CNBC)The Fall in Home Prices May Already Be Over (Wall Street Journal)The US is on course to build more apartments than ever in 2023 (Chartr Daily Instagram)Business Bankruptcies Soar in August as Rising Interest Rates Bite (Bloomberg)The Fed's own economists now expect a Goldilocks scenario: No recession, low inflation, and positive growth(Business Insider)The man who bought the NYSE just made a $11.9 billion bet that he can fast-track your mortgage for far less than you’re paying now (Fortune)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

In their second show without Haroon, who continues to be out on PTO in “The Sac,” Chris and Saied decide to crack a few of their own cans during the show in order to pay homage.  Shortly after lamenting the value of Haroon’s contributions they jump in to New York City’s crackdown on Airbnb and what this could mean if other cities follow suit.  They examine the Fed’s Beige Book data, what it tells us about the Fed’s perspective going into the September Fed meeting and give their predictions on whether or not there will be another 25 bps rate increase to Fed Funds.  They then pivot to Roku’s stock jumping after laying off 10% of their workforce while WeWork is reportedly renegotiating all of its leases.  The round out the show by reading on the National Association of Realtors new class action lawsuit, but stop short of a full analysis because they are going to need more time to review the legal filings. It is an episode chalked full of laughs and facts, so make sure to wear your manpon.  Resources:New York City's crackdown on Airbnb and short-term rental goes into effect (Guardian)Fed's Beige Book Shows Slower Activity Growth and Hiring in Peak Summer (Bloomberg)Roku stock jumps after company says it will lay off 10% of workforce (CNBC)WeWork CEO says company is ‘here to stay’ as it renegotiates ‘nearly all our leases’ (CNBC)Monumental NAR lawsuit snags class action status (The Real Deal)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

They boys open the show without Haroon who is once again out on PTO while he visits his in-laws in "Sac." They quickly jump in to a discussion regarding the changing landscape of home insurance in America. Many home insurers are starting to or have already cut natural disaster from policies as climate risks continue to mount. As a proxy, Chris and Saied leverage a Wall Street Journal article which asks the question "Are we ready for a $100 billion dollar catastrophe?" Global insured losses from natural disasters and the number of billion-dollar insured loss events worldwide have increased over time visibly. After all the negativity, Chris wanted to make a pivot in to something positive and highlights an article from CNBC which identifies the three things that Americans say define wealth in their mind. Shockingly none of them require making money, but most of them are a byproduct of making money. Without Haroon in the studio, you will need to pay homage to him by opening a beverage mid-show in order to cover for him in his obnoxious absence. Resources:The Fed's preferred inflation measure stayed high in July — and consumers are continuing to spend (CNN Business)Bigger Pockets x The Data Deli Instagram (Instagram)Full impact of Fed hikes still to be seen in real economy, ex-vice chair Blinder says (Reuters)Home insurers cut natural disasters from policies as climate risks grow (The Washington Post)Are We Ready for a $100 Billion Catastrophe? How About $200 Billion? (The Wall Street Journal)Americans say these 3 things define wealth -none of them require making a lot of money (CNBC)Americans Are Bailing on Their Home Insurance (The Wall Street Journal)Unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.8% in August as payrolls increased by 187,000 (CNBC)Here's where the jobs are for August 2023 - in one chart (CNBC)Shoppers pull back on 'big ticket' items as furniture, appliance sales lag (Yahoo! Finance)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

It was bad enough that Michael Burry - the investor who profited from the subprime mortgage crisis by shorting the 2007 mortgage bond market - just took a $1.6 billion dollar short on the market again. Now, the man, the myth, the legend is that the great investor in world history - Warren Buffett - has just dumped $8 billion dollars of stock and is moving to a cash position. The boy think these are very telling signs of an impending recessionary economy by two men who know what they are doing. At the same time, a new report out states that 61% of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck and US department stores are seeing higher credit delinquencies amid strained spending. It's a wild episode that is capped by a special collaboration between Mitch McConnell and Jay-Z.Resources:Warren Buffett just dumped $8 billion of stocks (here's why economists are worried) (The Street)61% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck — inflation is still squeezing budgets (CNBC)US department stores see higher credit delinquencies amid strained spending (Reuters)US labor market loses steam as job openings, resignations decline (Reuters)U.S. job growth slowed sharply to 177,000 in August, below expectations, ADP says (CNBC)US consumer spending in July surges; weekly jobless claims fall (Yahoo! Finance)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

The boys are off and running with shenanigans from the beginning. Haroon inadvertently opens his energy drink before the show started so he can't entertain you with his usual unnecessary interruptions, but don't worry, he filled his can with water for reasons we still don't fully understand. They spend a good amount of time recapping Jerome Powell's commentary from Jackson Hole, Wyoming which were clearly designed to strike fear in to the markets. One of their favorite economists, Mohamed El-Erian is very concerned that the Fed's actions to date may have 'destroyed the housing market by crushing both supply and demand.' Which was a fantastic segue in to the complete trash nonsense that Zillow is attempting to market. What do you do when home affordability is at an all time low? Rates are rising, home values haven't come down. Well, if you're Zillow, you offer a 1% down payment program to lure in homebuyers so you can sell more leads to Realtors. Resources:Fed Chair Powell calls inflation ‘too high’ and warns that ‘we are prepared to raise rates further’ (CNBC)Jerome Powell says it ‘takes time’ for slowdown in rent rises to show up in the Fed’s inflation gauge (Market Watch)Fed's Mester sees another rate hike, says rate cuts may have to wait (Reuters)The Fed may have destroyed the housing market by crushing both supply and demand, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says (Business Insider)Zillow offers 1% down payment to lure homebuyers as mortgage rates hit 22-year high (NY Post)Goldman Sachs unloads another business acquired under CEO David Solomon (CNBC)A 'valuation reset' hits the IPO market as Better stock crashes 90% after debut (Yahoo! Finance)Why the Era of Historically Low Interest Rates Could Be Over (Wall Street Journal)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

After wasting an hour eating Chick-fil-A, the boys are off to a slow start this episode.  Maybe it was the unnecessary amounts of sodium.  After gaining some traction and coming out of a food coma, Chris dives in to the ideology of a “rolling recession” and what this could mean for you.  They pivot in to an interesting Yahoo! Finance article on the American retailers and restaurants that are bracing for the impact of student loan payments restarting.  Many of these topics we have all covered together before; however, there is more data and probable impacts that can be seen in the economy that should not be ignored.  Chris and Saied navigate through 30-year mortgage rate and mortgage application charts suggesting that the trending is indicative of recessionary stress.  And finally, you all get to hear the coughing that Haroon does behind the scenes which we edit out for your audio pleasure. Resources:The experience-hungry American consumer is already crashing the economy into a ‘rolling recession,’ Oxford Economics says (Fortune)America's retailers and restaurants brace for a shock from student loan payments (Yahoo! Finance)US 30-year mortgage rate soars to highest since 2000 (Reuters)S&P just downgraded some big banks. Here are the 5 that are impacted (Yahoo! Finance)Powell Is Using Jackson Hole as Final Push in Inflation Fight (Yahoo! Finance)Home sales fall again in July, as supply drops to near quarter-century low (CNBC)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Business loans, also known as “Commercial and Industrial” lending is shifting as the landscape of the economy pivots.  The boys break down what you need to know and what this means for you.  They spend some time on the generational differences in the expectation of workers as they dive in to a CNBC article that states “American workers are demanding almost $80,000 a year to take a new job.”  In what is arguably the world’s worst segue they jump in to the car market and some of the changes the industry is experiencing that are early indicators of strain on the consumer.  Chris provides a colorful backstory on the never-ending “beef” between Nouriel Roubini and CZ.  Saied awkwardly forces in an unnecessary article on mortgage rates to cap the show and Haroon fumbles the audio, but blames it on the “inter-webs.”  We also got a new, spectacular review.  We appreciate every single one, so much.  Thank you!  Also, if you haven’t, we are not friends.  No pressure….Resources:Commercial and industrial lending falls again this week, but lending by small banks is up (Market Watch)American workers are demanding almost $80,000 a year to take a new job (CNBC)Car Prices Might Be Unsustainable for Buyers (Wall Street Journal)How to Get Rich and Famous From a Stock Market Crash (Wall Street Journal)Mortgage rates hit their highest point since 2000 (CNBC)Toronto Mortgage Rates 1981 (Instagram)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Well, damn it, mortgage rates just hit their highest level in 21 years and Chris, Saied and Haroon are here to tell you why.  Spoiler alert, they think the yield curve inversion has something to do with it and that the 10-year treasury has more to move up before the end of the year signaling 8% to end the year for mortgage rates as a possibility.  The Fed dropped their minutes where some of the FOMC members were apparently quoted as suggesting that another 25bps increase may be necessary; however, our Chief Economist is declaring shenanigans.  Chris pops off on real estate company Compass and apparently Janet Yellen micro-doses mushrooms when she visits China. Resources:Mortgage Rates Just Hit Highest Level In 21 Years (Forbes)Mortgage rates could hit 8%, economists say, citing a worrying sign not seen since the Great Recession (Market Watch)Fed officials see ‘upside risks’ to inflation possibly leading to more rate hikes, minutes show (CNBC)Unpaid commissions key ingredient in Compass’ cash-flow positivity (The Real Deal)Did Janet Yellen Accidentally Eat Psychedelics In China? What To Know About The Sold-Out Dish Cooked With Hallucinogenic Mushrooms (Forbes)Here's when the San Francisco Fed expects households to run out of COVID-era extra savings (Morning Star)Fed Saw ‘Significant’ Inflation Risk That May Merit More Hikes (Bloomberg)How Severe Is the Housing Shortage? It Depends on How You Define ‘Shortage’  (Wall Street Journal)Wall Street Is Ready to Scoop Up Commercial Real Estate on the Cheap (Wall Street Journal)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

In this captivating episode, we dive into the extraordinary life of Larry Wheels, a remarkable individual who's not only conquered the realms of bodybuilding, powerlifting, strongman and arm wrestling but has also taken the social media world by storm. Larry opens up about his journey, from being a teenage powerlifting prodigy to evolving into a multifaceted entertainer, influencer, and budding entrepreneur. In this hour-long interview, we explore Larry's candid reflections on his early use of performance-enhancing substances, shedding light on the challenges and lessons learned. As he shares his experiences, Larry also imparts invaluable wisdom for aspiring youth looking up to him, highlighting the importance of making informed decisions. The episode kicks off with Larry discussing his recent hospitalization due to a health scare involving Rhabdomyolysis, offering a raw and real glimpse into his life beyond the spotlight. Tune in for a conversation that goes beyond the surface, aiming to inspire and educate on "The Higher Standard." Also, please note, Saied was on vacation and only Chris and Haroon were present for the interview. Saied is still very salty about it, please don't mention it to him. This is our secret. Larry's Links:Larry Wheels WebsiteLarry's YouTube Channel Larry's InstagramLarry's Threads Larry's FacebookLarry's TwitterLarry's TikTokLarry's SnapchatLarry's Brands:PR LifestylePump & Power Meal PrepTranscend CompanyDisclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Episode 167 is here and, spoiler alert, it is not the promised Larry Wheels episode.  Not to worry, that episode will drop in the days to come.  In the meantime, please place all tray tables and setbacks in their locked and upright positions as the boys take you along on their fantastical journey of this sexy Tuesday’s financial literacy.  This episode will give you a robust review of the impacts of the looming student loan repayment restarting post-pandemic, a deeper dive in to the average consumer credit card debt and what this means for the creation of wealth for generations to come.  Chris says that while he does not want a recession, he is more scared of what happens to this country if we do not have one.  While carefully navigating a small political discussion, the boys breakdown what could lead to the “smashing” of the middle-class.  Of course, there is no better way to cap the show off than by basking in the tragic comedy that is the now infamous SBF’s most recent debacle.Resources:When student loan payments resume, 56% of borrowers say they’ll have to choose between their debt and buying groceries (CNBC)Average consumer carries $5,947 in credit card debt — a 10-year high (CNBC)Only 16% of Californians Can Afford to Buy a Home (Bloomberg)Are You Rich? (Bloomberg)Americans are moving further away for affordable homes and 'grandbabies' (Yahoo! Finance)Judge Sends FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried to Jail Ahead of Fraud Trial (Wall Street Journal)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

The boys are finally back together again.  Haroon has welcomed the birth of his second daughter and Saied is back from his family’s Hawaiian vacation.  To start the show Chris, Saied and Haroon wanted to emphasize their thoughts and prayers are with the people of Maui who have been impacted by this tragic and devastating fire.  After which, they jump in to Ray Dalio’s interesting recession perspective.  Saied gives a complete rundown of July’s inflation numbers and Chris continues to declare that the JOLTs report is manipulated and can’t be trusted.  Something interesting is happening in Minneapolis, home prices hit a record high in 60% of U.S. markets and credit card debt hits a record high at $1 trillion dollars.  Then, despite Chris thinking that asking for reviews was a colossal waste of time, we got several new amazing honest five star reviews.  This of course continues to prove that 50% of the time Chris is wrong, every time. Resources:Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says the Fed’s measures haven’t slowed consumers down, and the government is paying the price (Fortune)July CPI report shows inflation gauge rose 3.2%, less than expected (CNBC)US economy adds 187,000 July jobs in sign labor market is cooling (The Guardian)First American City to Tame Inflation Owes Its Success to Affordable Housing (Bloomberg)Home prices hit record highs in 60% of U.S. markets (CNBC)Rental housing cost rises to ‘slow significantly’ over next 18 months, Fed researchers say (Market Watch)Credit card debt hits a record high at $1 trillion, NY Fed says (Yahoo! Finance)Americans are pulling money out of their 401(k) plans at an alarming rate (CNN Business)July jobs report: U.S. payroll growth totaled 187,000, lower than expected (CNBC)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Haroon starts off the show extra sassy by giving Chris a taste of his own medicine.  Chris quickly jumps in to a CNBC article about how 1 in 4 U.S. homebuyers want to move to a different city.  The boys break down why Zillow tends to be bullish and their data should be looked at with caution.  U.S bank lending is declining for the second straight week and Chris goes off on “tipflation” once again.  He has been visceral every single time he talks about how out of control tipping has gotten.  They round-out episode 165 by diving in to where starter homes are affordable and migration trends as reported by the always superior data source provider - Redfin.  If you’ve read this far and you haven’t left us an “honest 5 star review,” we would appreciate you doing so now. Resources:1 in 4 U.S. homebuyers want to move to a different city—here’s the No. 1 place they’re looking (CNBC)It’s Getting Even Harder to Afford a ‘Starter’ Home in the US (Bloomberg)Zillow is so sure that U.S. home prices have bottomed that it just issued bullish calls for these 48 housing markets (Fortune)U.S. bank lending declines for second straight week (Market Watch)Clock on the Fed's 'soft landing' may already be ticking (Reuters)3 places people say they never tip amid ‘tipflation’: ‘It’s out of control’ (CNBC)One-Quarter of U.S. Homebuyers Are Looking to Relocate (Redfin)Las Vegas Tops List of Popular Homebuyer Destinations For First Time, With West Coast Migrants Drawn to Cheaper Homes (Redfin)Key Fed inflation rate falls to lowest annual level in nearly 2 years (CNBC)How the U.S. Economy Is Sticking the Soft Landing (WSJ)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Finishing off their double header, the boys are back-to-back again and are ferociously diving in to the Austin office market, the luxury home market's new reality and some new changes in Dallas. Apparently Dallas' City Council has banned short-term rentals from "single-family areas." Oh, and Saied also thinks that this is a financial literary podcast where we discuss books about finance. Confused? So are we. Episode 164 of The Higher Standard is here to save the day. Resources:Austin office market hits record-high vacancy (The Real Deal)The Luxury Home Market Confronts Its New Reality: Not Enough Buyers and Sellers (The Wall Street Journal)The Dow sinks, snapping its longest run since 1987 (CNN Business)Dallas City Council bans short-term rentals from single-family areas (Fox 4 News)Biggest winners and losers from the Fed’s interest rate hike (Yahoo! News)US economy defies recession fears with strong second-quarter performance (Yahoo! News)A $5.5 trillion savings wipeout is raising risks for the US economy (Yahoo! News)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world! It’s The Higher Standard. Saied, Chris and Haroon come out swinging in Episode 163 and they are no pulling in punches in their thoughts on The Fed’s latest 25bps interest rate increase. Join us as the boys go deep, real deep, in to the US economy, GDP and give you a historical look at the Fed Funds Rate with a 62 Year Historical Chart. It also marks the third episode of back-to-back appearances by Haroon who had been out sick for three consecutive episodes. Resources:US economy blows past expectations: 3 quick takeaways (The Hill)GDP grew at a 2.4% pace in the second quarter, topping expectations despite recession calls (CNBC)Federal Funds Rate - 62 Year Historical Chart (Macrotrends)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

In Episode 162 of The Higher Standard Podcast, Chris, Saied and Haroon discuss why they believe a majority of US Economists are wrong about their predictions on whether or not the US will be entering a recession. They explain how analysts track and predict earnings for US publicly traded companies and how A.I. has impacted this space. They dive in to earnings from American Express and how it showcases record spending. Chris takes it a step further by shedding light on the human condition of wanting to believe in optimism while some at JPMorgan believe the time to sell is still now. They round out the show by examining Tesla’s new 84-month financing option and stand their ground on why that would be a terrible option for you. We hope you enjoy because we did!Resources:American Express earnings show record spending: 'The U.S. consumer just looks really strong.' (Market Watch)Economists See US Recession Odds at 50% or Less in New Survey (Bloomberg)JPMorgan's Kolanovic Sticks to Stock Selloff Call Even as Market Defies Gloom (Bloomberg)Blame the Fed? Tesla offers 84-month financing (Yahoo! Finance)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Chris and Saied welcome back Haroon after being gone for a few episodes. The Huffington Post blasts "influencer" Grant Cardone in a sensational new article which speaks to many of the criticisms shared by Chris, Haroon and Saied on previous shows. Naturally, they get in to it and tell you how they really feel while providing insight in to why most of his purported investors don't understand what they are signing up for. They also explain how the Fed's looming instant payment modernization rollout is long overdue, but may be the first steps at a nationalized cryptocurrency. They dive in briefly to the rising homebuilder sentiment before wrapping up the show with Apollo's CEO description of a potential "non-recession" recession.Resources:Financial Influencer Grant Cardone Says He Can Make You A Billionaire. His Investors Claim He Defrauded Them (Huffington Post)Here are 10 reasons why Wall Street’s inevitable recession never arrived (Market Watch)Fed launches long-awaited instant payments service, modernizing system (Reuters)Federal Reserve officially launches new FedNow instant-payments service (CNBC)Fed launches new payments system that lets you send money in seconds (Yahoo Finance)Apollo CEO: We are going to have a "non-recession" recession (YouTube & CNBC)Homebuilder sentiment rises again in July, but builders warn higher mortgage rates are hurting (CNBC)Why Do We Idolize and Admire Celebrities (Success Consciousness)Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

According to Federal Reserve data, the median sales price of homes sold peaked in the final quarter of 2022, reaching $479,000 before rising mortgage rates brought them back down. But April's S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller report, which tracks national home-price changes, came in above expectations at 0.53% from the previous month. On the surface, the data suggests prices are on the rise again. But a July 11 note from Goldman Sachs strategists suggests that any optimism stemming from this lagging indicator would be premature.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss new checking and savings account data that shows Americans are better off now than before the pandemic, with nearly 10 to 15 percent more in their bank accounts than in 2019, despite new heights of inflation.Chris and Saied look at data compiled by the research firm Equilar Inc., indicating that total pay for top Hollywood executives soared during the height of the pandemic to $1.43 billion in 2021, up 50% from 2018.They also offer some thoughts on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic comments on the CPI for June, claiming that it has slightly increased the Federal Reserve’s chances of a “soft landing” — or taming inflation without triggering a downturn.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Goldman Sachs' predictions that home price growth is regressing in certain key cities.Why a Nobel Prize-winning economist believes there's no need for the Fed to keep hiking rates.Why the Federal Reserve needs to look hard at Milton Friedman's monetarism.And so much more...Resources:"10 US cities where home-price growth is regressing the most as high mortgage rates worsen affordability, according to Goldman Sachs" (Insider)"Nobel Prize-winning economist says there’s no need for the Fed to keep hiking interest rates" (CNBC)"Jeremy Siegel says we are in a ‘Goldilocks economy’ and the Fed doesn’t need to raise interest rates anymore" (Fortune)"Americans are still better off, with more in the bank than before the pandemic" (The Washington Post)"Here's how much Hollywood executives make" (LA Times via Instagram)"JP Morgan’s Kolanovic Sees ‘Modestly Wider’ Path to Soft Landing" (Bloomberg)

Goldman Sachs has embraced a new plan to avoid a third straight quarter of disappointing investors on earnings day. Breaking with its own long-standing convention, Goldman executives have been actively downplaying expectations for results that will be disclosed next week. The outcome: Analysts have slashed their estimates for quarterly profit by almost half since mid-June — the biggest revision before an earnings report under CEO David Solomon. That translates into one of the steepest profit drops among peers, and a return on equity that could slip below 5%.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss an analysis by Realtor.com indicating that rent in the 50 largest U.S. cities is now cheaper than it was a year ago, with significant decreases in southern cities that were real estate hotspots during the pandemic.  Median rent prices in these cities dropped by 0.5% in the last year.Chris and Saied look at a report stating that former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky was arrested Thursday, as federal regulators announced his bankrupt crypto exchange Celsius would pay a $4.7 billion fine.They also offer some thoughts on the consumer price index (CPI) which has increased 3% from a year ago, the lowest level since March 2021. On a monthly basis, the index, which measures a broad swath of prices for goods and services, rose 0.2%.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why one month of data is not enough for a 'wait and see' approach to the economy.Why core inflation is a better metric, and why food and energy data is too volatile.Goldman Sachs new tactic of downplaying its earnings.And so much more...Resources:"US Inflation Hits Two-Year Low, Giving Hope for End to Fed Hikes" (Bloomberg)"Goldman breaks its own rule to flag results much worse than rivals" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"These are the US cities where the rent has fallen the most since last year" (CNBC via Instagram)"Former Celsius CEO arrested, company agrees to pay $4.7 billion settlement" (CNBC via Instagram)"Inflation rose just 0.2% in June, less than expected as consumers get a break from price increases" (Chart of the Day via Instagram)"Inflation Eased to 3% in June, Slowest Pace in More Than Two Years" (The Wall Street Journal)"Inflation rose just 0.2% in June, less than expected as consumers get a break from price increases" (CNBC)

There is good news on inflation in store for Americans. The Labor Department is expected to report that overall inflation fell to about 3% in June, the lowest in two years. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core consumer price inflation is expected to drop to around 5%, an 18-month low, from 5.3%. Economists think core inflation could ebb further in coming months, to between 3.5% and 4%, depending on the price index. The bad news: Getting inflation down further from there, to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, will prove difficult if the economy keeps chugging along. That could force the Fed to keep monetary policy tight until the labor market weakens.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a Labor Department report indicating that nonfarm payrolls increased 209,000 in June and the unemployment rate was 3.6%. That compared with the Dow Jones consensus estimates for growth of 240,000 and a jobless level of 3.6%.Chris and Saied look at comments from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, following the winning bid for First Republic, a lender to rich coastal families that had $229 billion in assets, who claimed that "This part of the crisis is over."They also offer some thoughts on Fitch analyst Chris Wolfe's assertion that half the country’s banks will likely be swallowed by competitors in the next decade.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why the printing of trillions of dollars by the Fed in 2020-2022 led to a spike in inflation.Why over 40 million Americans will have to restart their student loan payments in the coming months.Why the inverted yield curve is such an important topic. And so much more...Resources:"Treasury yields fall as investors look to key economic data" (CNBC)"America’s Biggest Banks Are Going to Need More Capital" (The Wall Street Journal)"Everyone Wants Interest on Their Deposits. That’s Bad for Main Street Banks" (The Wall Street Journal)"Last Mile of the Inflation Fight Will Be the Hardest" (The Wall Street Journal)"Payrolls rose by 209,000 in June, less than expected, as jobs growth wobbles" (CNBC)"Job openings fall by half a million" (CNBC)"The American banking landscape is on the cusp of a seismic shift. Expect more pain to come." (CNBC)

The Commerce Department is reporting that the US economy expanded at a much faster pace in the first three months of the year than previously estimated. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of America’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy, so it’s nearly impossible to enter a recession when spending is growing. Over the pandemic, historic levels of stimulus cash boosted household income significantly. Spending, meanwhile, was severely curtailed as the economy shut down. Personal saving rates soared as a result, with US households amassing about $2.3 trillion in savings in 2020 and through the summer of 2021, according to Federal Reserve economists. That’s about $2 trillion more than they would have saved under normal circumstances.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a warning from the Federal Trade Commission, indicating that scammers are likely to target student loan borrowers after the Supreme Court struck down the Biden administration’s debt forgiveness plan, and as loan repayments are poised to restart in the fall.Chris and Saied look at a report from payroll processing firm ADP, showing that private sector jobs surged by 497,000 for the month, well ahead of the downwardly revised 267,000 gain in May and much better than the 220,000 Dow Jones consensus estimate. The increase resulted in the biggest monthly rise since July 2022.They also offer some thoughts on comments from Epiq Bankruptcy, a provider of US bankruptcy filing data, which claims that Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings jumped 68% in the first half of 2023 from a year earlier.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why Forbes thinks inflation is keeping the housing market afloat for now.Why the credit tightening cycle has not yet begun.Why office mortgage delinquencies have suffered the biggest six-month spike in 20 years.And so much more... Resources:(Chart of the Day via Instagram)"The Fed can’t decide how much money US households have left" (CNN)"Mortgage rates hit the highest point of the year" (Yahoo! Finance)"America's economy rapidly shifts south" (Axios)"Bankruptcy filings surge in first half of 2023 in US, Epiq says" (Reuters)"CRE Nightmare For CMBS Holders: Office Mortgage Delinquency Rate Suffers Biggest 6-Month Spike Ever" (Zerohedge)"Private sector companies added 497,000 jobs in June, more than double expectations, ADP says" (CNBC)"Payrolls report Friday likely to show a jobs market that is still hot" (CNBC)"Fed sees more rate hikes ahead, but at a slower pace, meeting minutes show" (CNBC)"FTC warns about student loan scams following Supreme Court decision" (CNBC)"Corporate America Faces a Bankruptcy Boom" (New York Times)"Inflation Keeps The Housing Market Afloat — For Now" (Forbes)"Some Fed Officials Supported Raising Rates in June" (The Wall Street Journal)

Millions of Americans will have to prepare to repay the entire balance of their student debt now that the Supreme Court has overturned President Biden’s loan-forgiveness plan. After a three-year pause in payments and months of uncertainty and legal challenges, the program won’t be allowed to move forward. The Biden administration’s forgiveness plan would have wiped out up to $20,000 in federal student-loan debt for qualified borrowers. The court ruled in a 6-3 decision Friday that the Education Department doesn’t have the authority to implement a program that would change student loans this way.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss comments by Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel, who says he is not ruling out an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, despite market expectations. Chris and Saied look at a Commerce Department report, indicating that the core personal consumption expenditures price index, a number closely watched by the Federal Reserve, increased 0.3% for the month. On the year, core PCE inflation increased 4.6%, though the headline number was up just 3.8%.They also offer some thoughts on data from Redfin, showing that nationwide, the median U.S. home sale price fell 4.1% ($17,603) year over year in April to $408,031. That’s the biggest drop on record in dollar terms and the largest decline since January 2012 in percentage terms. April marked the third consecutive month of year-over-year declines following roughly a decade of increases.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:The concept of emergency regulatory authority for the President.Why US corporate bankruptcies are on the rise.Why the only thing that will bring house prices down is more supply.And so much more... Resources:"Supreme Court Throws Out Biden’s Student-Loan Relief Plan" (Bloomberg)"US corporate bankruptcies are on the rise" (QZ)"This economist says he can’t rule out a Fed interest-rate cut by year-end. Here’s why." (MarketWatch)(Reventure Consulting via Instagram)"Homes in Austin and Boise are Selling for $80,000 Less Than a Year Ago" (Redfin)"Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States" (St. Louis Federal Reserve)"Key Fed inflation measure shows prices rose just 0.3% in May" (CNBC)"What the Supreme Court’s Rejection of Student-Loan Forgiveness Means for You" (The Wall Street Journal)"People Hire Phone Bots to Torture Telemarketers" (The Wall Street Journal)

The U.S. economy showed much stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter than previously thought, according to a big upward revision Thursday from the Commerce Department. GDP increased at a 2% annualized pace for the January-through-March period, up from the previous estimate of 1.3% and ahead of the 1.4% Dow Jones consensus forecast. This was the third and final estimate for Q1 GDP. The growth rate was 2.6% in the fourth quarter.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss data from Realor.com, indicating that the number of homes for sale this month was actually 7% higher than June of last year. However, in just the last week, that comparison went negative, with the number of homes for sale falling below year-ago levels for the first time in 59 weeks.Chris and Saied look at a report from the Labor Department, shown that initial jobless claims decreased by 26,000 to 239,000 in the week ended June 24, lower than all the estimates given in a recent survey of economists.They also offer some thoughts on cryptocurrency's lack of government regulation and the opportunities it offers to traders wishing to bypass government red tape. However its lack of formal oversight also makes it ripe for abuse.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why luxury watch prices are near their lowest level in two years.Why positive GDP growth means the economy is in expansion mode.Why mortgage rates are about to go higher.And so much more...Resources:"First-quarter economic growth was actually 2%, up from 1.3% first reported, in major GDP revision" (CNBC via Instagram)"World's dealmakers are down $1 trillion in one of worst years for M&A and IPOs in decades" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"Dealmakers Adrift as $1 Trillion Vanishes in First Half" (Bloomberg)"Prices for luxury Swiss watches are near the lowest in almost two years on the secondary market" (Businessweek via Instagram)"Popularity of Apps for Early Paydays Masks Added Risks" (Bloomberg)"House hunting is already tough. Guess what? It’s about to get harder" (CNBC)"First-quarter economic growth was actually 2%, up from 1.3% first reported in major GDP revision" (CNBC)"He lost $340,000 to a crypto scam. Such cases are on the rise" (NPR)https://www.npr.org/2023/06/25/1180256165/crypto-scam-senior-victims-spirebit"US Jobless Claims Drop by Most Since 2021 in Holiday Week" (Bloomberg)"Airbnb Could Be in Trouble — Here’s What You Need to Know" (Architectural Digest)

In New York and London, owners of office towers are walking away from their debt rather than pouring good money after bad. The landlords of downtown San Francisco’s largest mall have abandoned it. A new Hong Kong skyscraper is only a quarter leased. The rot inside commercial real estate is like a dark seam running through the global economy. Even as stock markets rally and investors are hopeful that the fastest interest-rate increases in a generation will ebb, the trouble in property is set to play out for years.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a prediction from Chapman University economists, calling for a mild national recession in the second half of the year, driving down the coastal community's year-end local median sales price to $885,000 — an 11 percent drop from $993,000 in June and 19 percent off the $1.1 million high of spring 2022.Chris and Saied look at announcements from several big companies, including Apple, JPMorgan Chase, and Amazon, who are attempting new pushes to “return to office” after previous attempts foundered. However, the pandemic has showed that many jobs can be done remotely, while a tight labor market and successful pandemic policy has given employees the confidence to push for better working conditions.They also offer some thoughts on data from Moody’s Investors Service, which indicates that corporate defaults rose last month, with 41 in the U.S. so far this year. That’s more than double the same period last year.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why office real estate values are heading for a sharp crash and likely won't recover by 2040.Why average US office vacancies currently sit around 50%.  The Case-Shiller index shows the first year-over-year decline in 11 years.And so much more...Resources:"Cinemark closing theater complex at Westfield" (NBC via Instagram)"OC home prices expected to fall by 11% as recession looms" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)"Silicon Valley vacancy jumps to 17% as tech firms shed floors" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)"Return to office? How COVID-19 and remote work reshaped the economy" (Princeton University Press)"Corporate bankruptcies and defaults are surging – here’s why" (CNBC)"The World’s Empty Office Buildings Have Become a Debt Time Bomb" (Bloomberg)"U.S. new home sales jump in May; median house price falls" (Reuters)"U.S. Home Prices Posted First Annual Decline Since 2012 in April" (The Wall Street Journal)"Airbnb CEO says this is ‘loneliest time in human history’ and we need to ‘rebuild physical community’" (Fortune)"The office real estate crash will be so sharp and deep that Capital Economics thinks office values are unlikely to recover by 2040" (Fortune)"The Debt Crisis Looming in Commercial Real Estate" (Bloomberg)

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has affirmed that more interest rate increases are likely ahead until additional progress is made on bringing down inflation. Speaking a week after FOMC officials decided for the first time in more than a year not to push rates higher, the central bank leader indicated that the move likely was just a brief respite rather than an indication that the Fed is done hiking.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a forecast by London-based research firm Capital Economics, indicating that US office buildings are unlikely to regain their peak pre-pandemic values until at least 2040 as demand for desk space weakens.Chris and Saied look at a Labor Department report, stating that initial jobless claims held at 264,000 in the week ended June 17 after a slight upward revision to the previous week’s figures. This was above the median forecast of a survey of economists, who estimated 259,000 new claims.They also offer some thoughts on data from  S3 Partners LLC, showing that total US short interest, or the amount traders have spent betting against US equities, exceeded $1 trillion this month as the S&P 500 Index extended its advance. The tally reached the highest since April 2022 before retreating slightly with stocks down for a third straight day.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why the FOMC has never explained the reasoning behind the four separate 75-point rate increases.Why housing makes up the largest component of the COnsumer Price Index (CPI) report.The definition of a bull market.And so much more...Resources:"Senator Elizabeth Warren pressures Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the SVB and FirstRepublic bank failures" (Bloomberg via Instagram)"Higher Interest Rates Hit Home Prices Again" (The Wall Street Journal)"Powell expects more Fed rate hikes ahead as inflation fight ‘has a long way to go’" (CNBC)"Fed Chair Powell says smaller banks likely will be exempt from higher capital requirements" (CNBC)"US Office Owners Get Dire Warning: Rebound Unlikely Before 2040" (Bloomberg)"US Jobless Claims Hold at Highest Level Since October 2021" (Bloomberg)"Short Bets on US Stocks Hit $1 Trillion, Most Since April 2022" (Bloomberg)"Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Improve in May Amid Multi-Family Gains" (MSN)

US Federal Reserve officials struck a hawkish tone in their first comments since the central bank held the policy interest rate steady at its meeting this week but signaled that rate hikes will likely resume. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that changes in US credit conditions since the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in early March were 'in line' with financial tightening that was already underway due to Federal Reserve interest rate increases - comments that downplayed the idea a worse-than-anticipated contraction in credit might make further Fed rate increases less necessary.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a report by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, indicating that the monthly premium on home ownership is up to $1,030 per month — up 17 percent from this month last year, when the difference favored renters by $884 per month.Chris and Saied look at the staggering $1.3 billion every day the government pays in interest on its debt. This means that a substantial portion of taxpayer money is being allocated solely to cover the interest costs of the national debt.They also offer some thoughts on Economist Nouriel Roubini's doubling down on dire warnings about the US, saying the nation is headed for a recession as a combo of higher interest rates, sticky inflation, and a credit squeeze barrel the economy.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Nouriel Roubini's assertion that recession is now 'certain.'Why economists are saying say it's a near-certainty that housing inflation will fall.Why the hiring boom is hiding the fact that employees are working fewer hours.And so much more...Resources:"...there will 'certainly' be a recession: Nouriel Roubini" (Yahoo! Finance via YouTube)"Fed policymakers deliver hawkish vibe after pause decision" (Reuters)"Why economists say it’s a near certainty that housing inflation will soon fall" (CNBC)"The government is paying $1.3 billion in interest on its debt every day" (Wealth via Instagram)"Tech-Stock Boom Pits AI Against the Fed" (The Wall Street Journal)"Lots of Hiring, but Not So Much Working" (The Wall Street Journal)"Biden Touts Job Growth in First Re-Election Campaign Rally" (The Wall Street Journal)"A recession is ‘at our doorstep,’ but investors are falling for a goldilocks scenario, Wells Fargo says. It ‘isn’t going to end all that well’" (Yahoo! Finance)"U.S. Apartment Values 'Will Plunge A Further 20%,' Economists Say, But Wall Street Still Sees Major Upside In These REITs — Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful?" (Yahoo! Finance)"Buying costs $1000 more per month than renting" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)

The stock market is growing more optimistic about US regional banks, but the lenders still face serious pressure. A credit "contraction is invariably coming," Soros Fund Management Chief Executive Officer Dawn Fitzpatrick has said, adding that additional banks will fail because "there are more problems under the surface." One further source of trouble for the industry will be commercial real estate, an area that in recent years smaller and regional banks have become a bigger force in.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a report stating that the Federal Reserve will pause its historic rate-hiking campaign as it waits for the effects to trickle further through the economy, while also signaling that additional rate hikes are likely this year.Chris and Saied look at data from the Labor Department indicating that the inflation rate cooled in May to its lowest annual rate in more than two years, likely taking pressure off the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates.They also offer some thoughts on the Consumer Price Index showing that inflation has been cut by more than half from last year’s peak. On an annual basis, prices rose by 4% compared to a year ago. That’s a significant decline from April, when annual inflation was 4.9%.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why a terminal rate of 5.6% will likely be necessary.Why consumer spending has been the number one thing propping up the economy up until now.Why community banks are in serious trouble at the moment.And so much more...Resources:"The Fed holds rates steady, pausing its rate-hiking campaign" (CNN)"Fed Chair Powell says more rate hikes coming this year" (CNBC via Instagram)"Instant Reaction: Fed Decision June 14, 2023" (NARresearch via Instagram)"Westfield leaving downtown San Francisco amid declining sales" (NBC via Instagram)"Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says the U.S. economy has been incredibly resilient" (CNBC via Instagram)"Inflation rose at a 4% annual rate in May, the lowest in 2 years" (CNBC)"Here’s the inflation breakdown for May 2023, in one chart" (CNBC)"CPI Report Shows Inflation Has Been Cut in Half From Last Year’s Peak" (The Wall Street Journal)"Regional Banks Face Years of Trouble" (The Wall Street Journal)"The Richest Person In Every State" (Forbes)"Fed Holds Rates Steady but Expects More Increases" (The Wall Street Journal)"Fed, SEC Probing Goldman Sachs’s Role in SVB’s Final Days" (The Wall Street Journal)"Goldman Sachs Is at War With Itself" (The Wall Street Journal)"Renters Are About to Get the Upper Hand" (The Wall Street Journal)"There’s More Trouble Coming for Regional Banks" (Bloomberg)

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain its benchmark lending rate at the 5%-5.25% range, marking the first skip after 10 consecutive increases going back to March of last year. While officials’ efforts have helped to reduce price pressures in the US economy, inflation remains well above their goal. Investors’ focus will be on the Fed’s quarterly dot plot in its Summary of Economic Projections, which is expected to show the policy benchmark rate at 5.1% at the end of 2023. In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss comments from Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, who claims to be surprised at the way the US economy has weathered higher interest rates, elevated inflation, and banking turmoil over the past year.Chris and Saied look at recent Fed data, indicating that Americans have a record amount of credit card debt right now — close to $990 billion.They also offer some thoughts on a revised home prices forecast from Goldman Sachs strategists, who now predict a smaller decline this year — 2.2% decline in 2023, down from 6.1%. Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:The little signs that people are noticing that signal a recession.Why people are reluctant to change their living standards.Why consumers will start cutting back on discretionary spending.And so much more...Resources:"The U.S. economy has been incredibly resilient,” Goldman Sachs CEO" (CNBC)"Americans have almost $990 billion in credit card debt" (Marketplace)"The hidden risk on bank balance sheets" (Axios)"'I told you so': Dave Ramsey made the correct call on US real estate 18 months ago — but is he still right about housing in 2023? Here's what the financial guru thinks now" (Moneywise)https://moneywise.com/real-estate/dave-ramseys-2023-real-estate-predictions"Wall Street is divided on the outlook for US house prices. Here's what 6 experts have recently said." (Markets Insider)"Fed Is Set to Pause and Assess the Effect of Rate Hikes" (Bloomberg)

According to Michael Gapen, Bank of America's chief economist, the US economy will likely face a mild recession later this year, but the risk of a severe economic downturn appears low as of now. A correction of labor-market imbalances is needed to bring inflation back down to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and that typically looks like a mild recession. With risks receding, stress in the banking sector stabilizing, and macroeconomic trends looking good, Gapen said the Fed faces a tough decision regarding interest rates and investors can't completely rule out the possibility of another hike.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a report from the Labor Department, indicating that initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 261,000 for the week ended June 3, an increase of 28,000 from the upwardly revised level of the previous period.Chris and Saied look at data from Realtor.com with the National Association of Realtors, showing that the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered in the high-6% range in May. At that level, buyers with an annual income of $100,000, slightly above the national median, could afford a house with a maximum price of about $341,000, however just 39% of the homes for sale were listed at or below that price point in May.They also offer some thoughts on a new real estate transfer tax in Los Angeles, that was supposed to give the city an average of $56 million a month in its first year. However, in its first month, the Measure ULA tax took in $3.6 million. For transactions closing in April, the city received the revenue from five deals that were subject to the new tax.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why growth is often used as a metaphor of prosperity.Why a credit crunch has already begun in the commercial office real estate.Why Larry Summers thinks the Fed has made a huge mistake, and why that's wrong.And so much more...Resources:"The US will face a mild recession, but the risk of a 'hard landing' is currently low, Bank of America's chief economist says" (Business Insider)"Jobless claims increase more than expected to their highest since October 2021" (CNBC)"U.S. consumer-credit growth accelerates in April to fastest pace in five months" (MarketWatch)"The shortage of houses is hitting some people and areas harder than others" (CNBC)"The “mansion tax” was supposed to bring in $56M monthly. It took in $3.6M" (TheRealDeal)"Larry Summers says that the Fed should consider doubling down on interest rates in July if it pauses in June because the risk of ‘overheating the economy’" (Fortune)"Are home prices falling? See what it’s like in your area." (Washington Post)

The Securities and Exchange Commission filed 13 charges against Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, and its founder, Changpeng Zhao, alleging both commingled billions of dollars worth of user funds and sent them to a European company controlled by Zhao. The U.S. regulator alleged on Monday that Zhao and his exchange worked to subvert ‘their own controls’ to allow high-net-worth U.S. investors and customers to continue trading on Binance's unregulated international exchange.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a story stating that Christian radio host Dave Ramsey is facing a $150 million lawsuit from 17 listeners who claim he played a role in defrauding them by promoting a timeshare exit company.Chris and Saied look at a report from the Labor department indicating that payrolls in the public and private sector increased by 339,000 for the month, better than the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth.They also offer some thoughts on the latest Markets Live Pulse survey, which found that roughly one in two people who work in finance would change jobs — or already have — if their managers required them to spend more time in the office.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why air travel is the highest-ranking inflation item at 26%.Why realtors are bowing out of the real estate industry.The concept of timeshares and their benefits.And so much more...Resources:"Christian radio host Dave Ramsey faces $150 million lawsuit from listeners who say they were defrauded by a timeshare exit company he promoted" (Yahoo! Finance)"SEC sues Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao for U.S. securities violations" (CNBC)"Payrolls rose 339,000 in May, much better than expected in resilient labor market" (CNBC)"Don’t Ask Us to Come to the Office More — Or We Will Quit, Investors Say" (Bloomberg)"A $1.5 Trillion Backstop for Homebuyers Props Up Banks Instead" (Bloomberg)"Why the U.S. Remains Far From Recession" (The Wall Street Journal)

Goldman Sachs is preparing for its third round of layoffs since September as Wall Street firms adjust to a slump in deals activity. The company is expected to trim fewer than 250 jobs in the coming weeks. Goldman Sachs, led by CEO David Solomon, was among the first major Wall Street firms to trim jobs in September, cutting a few hundred positions. It then slashed more jobs in January, releasing about 3,200 employees. Morgan Stanley announced about 3,000 job cuts this month, and JPMorgan Chase cut about 500 jobs. However, Goldman is more tied to the ups and downs of Wall Street than its rivals. Its combined 16% drop in first-quarter trading and advisory revenue contributed to a disappointing start to the year.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a report from Refinitiv's FedWatch, indicating that U.S. rate futures on Wednesday priced in a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve at next month's monetary policy meeting, a massive turnaround from indications of a 25 basis-point increase earlier in the session.Chris and Saied look at a report from payroll processing firm ADP, showing that the U.S. labor market posted another month of surprising strength in May as companies added jobs at a pace well above expectations.They also offer some thoughts on the tumble the stock market took on Wednesday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%, or 150 points, by 3:15 p.m. ET, while the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 0.5% apiece.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:The concept of market capitalization.Why inversion typically precedes a recessionary economy.Why the data is showing that employment is headed in the wrong direction.And so much more...Resources:"Dow falls 130 points after FDIC reveals record plunge in bank deposits" (Forbes via Instagram) "US rate futures expect Fed pause in June in sharp turnaround from earlier" (Reuters)"Goldman Sachs is cutting jobs again amid Wall Street deals slump" (CNBC)"Job openings show surprise increase in April" (Yahoo! Finance)"Private payrolls rose by 278,000 in May, well ahead of expectations, ADP says" (CNBC)"Pending home sales unchanged in April, down 20% year-over-year" (CNBC)"Market Capitalization: What It Is and Why It Matters" (NerdWallet)"State Farm Halts Home-Insurance Sales in California" (The Wall Street Journal)"Apple Customers Say It’s Hard to Get Money Out of Goldman Sachs Savings Accounts" (The Wall Street Journal)"Downtown LA's office distress shows the pain coming for cities" (Bloomberg)

U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in April, boosting the economy's growth prospects for the second quarter, and inflation picked up, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again next month. The growth picture was further brightened by other data from the Commerce Department on Friday showing a surprise rebound last month in orders of manufactured non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss the debate among Fed officials, centered on concerns over inflation not cooling fast enough and the labor market’s persistent strength. Chris and Saied look at the increase in real GDP, which reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and residential fixed investment.They also offer some thoughts on a jump in consumer spending of 0.8% last month after gaining 0.1% in March. Economists had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, would rise 0.4%.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:The difference between Gross DOmestic Income (GDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).Why the National Bureau of Economic Research has not declared a recession.Why the additional stress placed on all corporations and profitability will be very visible in July.And so much more..."Gross Domestic Income GDI Suggests US Is In Recession Right Now" (Zero Hedge)"Strong US consumer spending, inflation readings put Fed in tough spot" (Reuters)"Fed officials debated need for rate hike at last meeting, minutes show" (CNN)"A Housing Bust Comes for Thousands of Small-Time Investors" (The Wall Street Journal)

Deposit runs have led to the collapse of three U.S. banks this year, but another concern is building on the horizon. According to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, commercial real estate is the area most likely to cause problems for lenders. U.S. banks have experienced historically low loan defaults over the last few years due to low interest rates and the flood of stimulus money unleashed during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the Federal Reserve has hiked rates to fight inflation, which has changed the landscape. Commercial buildings in some markets, including tech-centric San Francisco, may take a hit as remote workers are reluctant to return to offices.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss an academic paper from economist Olivier Blanchard and former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, who guided the central bank and the U.S. economy through the Great Recession, in which they argue that central bankers still have work to do to bring down inflation.Chris and Saied look at news that San Francisco has the largest sublease market of any U.S. metropolitan area, with 7.2% of its overall office inventory available for sublease, having doubled that figure since late 2019.They also offer some thoughts on the rise of asset managers, private equity funds and insurers, as the regional banking crisis supercharges the expansion of these non-bank lenders into areas such as providing consumer car loans and mortgages, or financing the construction of buildings.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why the debt ceiling 'crisis' is a non-event.Private equity and how it differs from real estate syndicators.Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs): a new way to take companies public.And so much more...Resources:"Here's how much emergency savings you need amid economic uncertainty, according to financial advisors" (CNBC via Instagram)"Fed Chair Powell says rates may not have to rise as much as expected to curb inflation" (CNBC)"Jamie Dimon warns souring commercial real estate loans could threaten some banks" (CNBC)"Analysis: Private equity steps up lending as U.S. banks pull back" (Reuters)"Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke says there’s more work ahead to control inflation" (CNBC)"What's the right emergency fund amount?" (Vanguard)"These Companies Are Trying To Shed Massive Amounts of San Francisco Office Space" (SF Standard)"The Majority of U.S. Businesses Have Fewer Than Five Employees" (Census.gov)"PacWest to Sell $2.6 Billion Real Estate Loans at Discount" (Bloomberg)"Fed Rate Increases Hit Small Businesses the Hardest" (The Wall Street Journal)"Regional Banks Rallied Last Week. Traders Continued to Short the Sector" (Bloomberg)"Fed Official Is Open to Forgoing June Rate Hike" (The Wall Street Journal)

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester has said that she does not think the U.S. central bank is at a point yet where it can hold interest rates steady for a period of time, given how stubborn inflation is. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signaled the central bank may pause further rate hikes as it assesses the impact of its past tightening, as well as the effect of recent bank sector stress on lending and credit.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss news that JPMorgan sees treasuries as the best hedge against a slowdown, and sees the possibility of 10-year rates falling below 2.5% in the event of a deep recession. The 10-year Treasury rate was trading around 3.53% on Wednesday, after rising as high as 4.09% earlier in the year.Chris and Saied look at comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic, who said that, if he were voting on monetary policy today, he would vote to hold interest rates steady, but added there is still a lot of data to come before the Fed's meeting in June.They also offer some thoughts on Elon Musk's assertions that he doesn’t care if his inflammatory tweets scare away potential Tesla buyers or Twitter advertisers.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why most people believe that a recession is inevitable at this point.Why, despite the fanfare in the media, we're not yet in a credit tightening cycle.The importance of looking at the actual data, not the intentions.Why Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic says he would not cut rates unless inflation fell farther than to mid to high 3%.And so much more...Resources:"Default Fears Rattle Main Street Investors" (The Wall Street Journal)"JPMorgan Asset Says Markets Are Right to Bet on US Rate Cuts" (Bloomberg)"Home Prices Posted Largest Annual Drop in More Than 11 Years in April" (The Wall Street Journal)"Fed's Mester says not yet at point where it can 'hold' rates" (Reuters)"Fed's Bostic: if vote on policy were today, would vote to hold steady" (Reuters)"Elon Musk: ‘I’ll say what I want, and if the consequence of that is losing money, so be it’" (CNBC)

According to a report from the Commerce Department, retail sales increased but fell short of expectations. The advanced sales report showed an increase of 0.4%, below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.8%. Excluding auto-related figures, sales increased 0.4%, which was in line with expectations. As the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, the headline increase equaled the 0.4% monthly rise in the consumer price index. On an annual basis, sales were up just 1.6%, well below the 4.9% CPI pace.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss news that stock in Home Depot tumbled more than 5%, or $13 a share, in premarket trading, which was worth about 100 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Once trading opened, the stock recovered some of its gains, and was recently down about 1.5%, still big enough to shave about 30 points off the Dow.Chris and Saied look at a Census Bureau survey, showing that more Americans struggle to meet expenses now than in the immediate aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, when millions lost their means of employment. About 38.5% of American adults — or 89.1 million people — faced difficulty in paying for usual home expenses between April 26 and May 8. That’s up from 34.4% a year ago and 26.7% during the same period in 2021.They also offer some thoughts on the passing of Chicago real estate magnate Sam Zell, who earned a multibillion-dollar fortune and a reputation as “the grave dancer” for his ability to revive moribund properties.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why retail sales rose 0.4% in April, and why this is indicative of bad things to come.The concept of a real estate trust.A University of Michigan report showing that consumer sentiment is at an all-time low.Why Home Depot is warning of annual sales drop for the first time since 2009.And so much more...Resources:"Home Depot just forecast weak consumer demand — here’s what that could mean for the rest of the economy" (CNBC)"Almost 90 million American adults struggle to make ends meet, Census says" (Bloomberg Business)"Retail sales rose 0.4% in April, less than expected as consumers struggle with inflation" (CNBC)"Americans Curb Spending on Home Improvements" (The Wall Street Journal)"Home Improvement Goes on Hiatus" (The Wall Street Journal)"Experts Predict Home Improvement Spending to Decline by 2024" (M Report)

Total consumer debt hit a fresh new high in the first quarter of 2023, pushing past $17 trillion even amid a sharp pullback in home borrowing. According to a report from the New York Federal Reserve, the total for borrowing across all categories hit $17.05 trillion, an increase of nearly $150 billion, or 0.9% during the January-to-March period. That took total indebtedness up about $2.9 trillion from the pre-Covid period ending in 2019.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss news that famed short-seller Michael Burry and his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, snapped up 150,000 shares of First Republic prior to its purchase by JP Morgan, worth about $2 million at the end of the first quarter.Chris and Saied look at A Gallup poll indicating that 36% of US adults say they have a “great deal” or a “fair amount” of confidence that the Federal Reserve chairman would do or recommend the right thing for the economy, a precipitous drop which is now at or below his predecessors’ as the central bank wages its war against inflation.⁣They also offer some thoughts on recently-released Federal Reserve data, showing that deposits at U.S. banks climbed to $17.16 trillion in the week ended May 3, up about $67 billion, ticking up from the lowest level in nearly two years while bank lending was little changed at a record level.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why inflaton in Argentina has sped up to 109% as currency weakens before the election.The three steps to a Federal Reserve pivot.Why Warren Buffett and Michael Burry are doubling down in the banking sector.Why the FOMC needs to see inflation going down on a fast enough trend.And so much more...Resources:"With $1B in back rent due, LA landlords struggle to survive" (The RealDeal via Instagram)"Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time" (CNBC via Instagram)"Michael Burry loaded up on bank stocks during the banking crisis" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"Paul Tudor Jones says the Fed is done raising rates, stocks to finish the year higher" (CNBC via Instagram)"Confidence in Jerome Powell has plunged to a record low" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"What happens when the prophecy of the blockchain fails?" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram) "U.S. bank deposits rise in early May, lending little changed at record high" (Reuters)"US real estate investors are losing money on roughly 1 in 7 homes they sell — among the worst since 2016. And they're most likely to take a hit in these 5 cities" (Moneywise)"A problem for the housing market: People won’t quit their cheap mortgages" (The Washington Post)"US Households Show Signs of Stress as New Delinquencies Rise" (Bloomberg)"Argentina to Hike Rates in Bid to Stem Inflation Crisis" (Bloomberg)

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits have jumped to a 1-1/2-year high, pointing to cracks in the labor market as demand slows, potentially giving the Federal Reserve room to halt further interest rate increases next month. With demand cooling, inflation pressures are subsiding. Data from the Labor Department indicates that producer prices rebounded modestly in April, leading to the smallest annual increase in wholesale inflation in more than two years.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a Labor Department report showing that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of a broad swath of goods and services, increased 0.4% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate.Chris and Saied look at comments from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon that markets will be gripped by panic as the U.S. approaches a possible default on its sovereign debt, calling the default "potentially catastrophic" for the country.They also offer some thoughts on a statement by New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who cautioned that interest rate increases will take a while to work their way through the economy before inflation returns to an acceptable level.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why services inflation is really consumer discretionary spending more than anything else.Why housing prices are excluded from the Labor Department’s CPI report.The odds of a Fed rate cut this year.Why the Fed's 'stress tests' for banks failed.And so much more...Resources:"Jamie Dimon warns panic will overtake markets as US approaches debt default" (CNBC via Instagram)"The family behind First Citizen's Bank is $1 billion richwer since SVB" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"AirBnB stock craters - founders lose $4 billion in one day" (Forbes via Instagram)"Inflation rate eases to 4.9% in April, less than expectations" (CNBC)"Wholesale prices rose just 0.2% in April, less than estimate as inflation pressures ease" (CNBC)"Fed’s John Williams says rates could be increased if inflation doesn’t come down" (CNBC)"Worries linger about financial stability following bank rescue, Fed report shows" (CNBC)"US weekly jobless claims hit 1-1/2-year high; inflation subsiding" (Reuters)"Brits are being offered no-deposit 100% mortgage loans for the first time since 2008" (CNBC)"We May Be Getting Used to High Inflation, and That’s Bad News" (The Wall Street Journal)"Icahn, Under Federal Investigation, Blasts Short Seller" (The Wall Street Journal)"Inflation Eased in April but Remains Stubbornly High" (The Wall Street Journal)"Can Inflation Fall Fast Enough for the Fed?" (The Wall Street Journal)"How the Fed’s stress tests failed to stop a banking crisis" (Fortune)"Monthly Mortgage Payments Could Surge 22% If US Defaults" (Bloomberg)

The Pandemic Housing Boom saw a flood of institutional homebuying. Low interest rates, easy access to capital, soaring rents, and skyrocketing home values were just too good a deal for Wall Street types like Blackstone and iBuyer players like Opendoor Technologies to pass on. However, it seems that institutional homebuyers are pulling back. According to an analysis conducted by John Burns Research and Consulting, institutional investors — those owning over 1,000 homes — bought 90% fewer homes in January and February than they did in the first two months of 2022. Invitation Homes, the largest owner of U.S. single-family rental homes recently became a net seller. In the first quarter of 2023, Invitation Homes bought 194 homes while it sold off 297.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss the reasons that banks are going to choose to be strategic in the deployment of capital, partially because they want to keep as much of their balance sheets as possible, in case of a run on deposits, and partially because any loan they make today is going to be underwater if the Federal Reserve continues to increase rates.Chris and Saied look at news that shares of San Francisco-based PacWest Bancorp plunged after investors learned the regional bank was considering a sale. Despite thet fact that the bank has said it had not experienced a high number of customer withdrawals, the news still stoked fears of a potential surge in withdrawals among regional banks.They also offer some thoughts on the results of a survey from the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), a lobbying organization that represents small business owners nationwide, which shows that small business earnings rose to the highest levels in at least 45 years last month.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why the market is not concerned with interest rate increases.Why the US dollar needs to be the world's currency.Why the debt ceiling is going to have to be raised well before June 1.Why, in 2011, the debt ceiling crisis led to an S&P downgrade of US sovereign debt.And so much more...Resources:Wall Street is running away from the housing market. But why?Powell’s Bet Against Recession Looks Good — Minus the Credit Crunch and a DC StandoffFed report shows banks worried about conditions ahead, with focus on slowing economy and deposit outflowsOutlook for household spending slumped in April, New York Fed survey showsCorporate Stock Buybacks Help Keep Market AfloatWhat are the advantages of being the Nation that has the Reserve CurrencyThe Kardashev Scale - Type I, II, III, IV & V CivilizationJob growth totals 253,000 in April, beating expectations even as the U.S. economy slows

Employment openings pulled back further in March, hitting a nearly two-year low in a sign that the ultra-tight U.S. job market is loosening and possibly putting less pressure on inflation, according to a report by the Labor Department. The department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job vacancies totaled 9.59 million for the month, down from 9.97 million in February and below the FactSet estimate for 9.64 million. At the same time, layoffs and discharges jumped by 248,000 to just over 1.8 million, taking the rate as a share of the workforce up to 1.2% from 1%.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a report from payroll processing firm ADP that states that private payrolls rose by 296,000 for April, above the downwardly revised 142,000 the previous month and well ahead of the estimate for 133,000.Chris and Saied look at Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent press conference, in which he said that, "The run on Silicon Valley Bank was out of keeping with the speed of runs through history. And that now needs to be reflected in some way in regulation and in supervision.”They also offer some thoughts on the recent increase in the Fed's target range for its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, while leaving its options open on future rate hikes.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why the entire regional bank sector is taking a significant pounding.Why the market doesn't believe a lot of what Fed Chair Jerome Powell is saying.The reason why so many knowledgeable people on the news and in social media seem to have no idea how banking works.The role of digital banking, providing depositors with quick access to their funds that they can move immediately.And so much more...Resources:" Dow tumbles more than 300 points as banking sector worries reignite before Fed rate decision" (CNBC)"Job openings fell more than expected in March to lowest level in nearly two years" (CNBC)"Private payrolls surged by 296,000 in April, much higher than expected, ADP says" (CNBC)"Fed recap: Here are Chair Powell’s market-moving comments after the latest rate hike" (CNBC)"Federal Reserve pushes interest rates above 5% for first time since 2007" (Yahoo! Finance)"Exclusive: US officials assessing possible 'manipulation' on banking shares" (Reuters)"Apple reportedly attracted $1 billion in deposits into its new high-yield savings account in just 4 days" (BusinessInsider)"As JPMorgan Scoops Up First Republic, Are Banks Facing Their ‘Minsky Moment?'" (Payments.com)"US job openings fall to a nearly 2-year low of 9.6 million. Fewer people are quitting too" (MarketWatch)"For Banks Under Stress, There’s a Federal Backstop That Provides Help Without Stigma" (Bloomberg)"Regional Bank Stocks Close at Lowest Level Since 2020" (Wall Street Journal)"What a Fed Debate 17 Years Ago Reveals About Its Rate Deliberations Now" (Wall Street Journal)

Regulators have seized First Republic Bank and sold its assets to JPMorgan Chase & Co in a deal to resolve the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis and draw a line under a lingering banking turmoil. First Republic was among regional U.S. lenders most battered by a crisis in confidence in the banking sector in March, when depositors fled en masse from smaller banks to giants like JPMorgan as they panicked over the collapse of two other mid-sized U.S. banks.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss comments from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who said that the crisis that led to the downfall of three regional U.S. banks in recent weeks is largely over after the resolution of First Republic.Chris and Saied look at a warning from billionaire investor Charlie Munger, vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, who sees trouble ahead for the U.S. financial system because American banks are "full of... bad loans" due to falling property prices in the country in a situation that seems very similar to what caused the banking crisis in 2008.They also offer some thoughts on recently-released economic data showing that inflation rose again in March, despite a year’s worth of interest rate increases. This is data that the Federal Reserve watches very closely.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why you can’t compare the large global banks to regional community banks.Why the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will share losses with JP Morgan on First Republic loans.What other banks are doing to prepare for a possible rate hike.Why banks are not doing loans right now.And so much more...Resources:"Australia’s central bank hikes rates by 25 basis points; Asia-Pacific markets mixed" (CNBC)"Jamie Dimon says ‘this part of the crisis is over’ after JPMorgan Chase buys First Republic" (CNBC)"Key inflation gauge for the Fed rose 0.3% in March as expected" (CNBC)"Charlie Munger says the U.S. commercial property market is in trouble: FT report" (CNBC)"Big banks including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America asked for final bids on First Republic" (CNBC)"The U.S. could hit the debt ceiling by June 1, much sooner than expected, Yellen warns" (CNBC)"Charlie Munger Sounds The Alarm on Issue That Could Bring Down the U.S. Economy" (TheStreet)"Warren Buffett might help rescue the banks again - but he'll probably make less money this time around" (Markets Insider)"Renting is still far less expensive in Dallas-Fort Worth than in other metros" (The Dallas Morning News)"Regulators seize First Republic Bank, sell assets to JPMorgan" (Reuters)"Ranked: The U.S. Banks With the Most Uninsured Deposits" (Visual Capitalist)"A Tax Loophole Makes EV Leasing a No-Brainer in the US" (Bloomberg)"First Republic Bank Is Seized, Sold to JPMorgan in Second-Largest U.S. Bank Failure" (The Wall Street Journal)"The Building Boom Is Prolonging Market Pain" (The Wall Street Journal)"Why First Republic Bank Collapsed" (The Wall Street Journal)

Growth in the U.S. slowed considerably during the first three months of the year as interest rate increases and inflation took hold of an economy largely expected to decelerate even further ahead. According to the Commerce Department, gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting growth of 2%.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a report stating that U.S. home prices, as measured by the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, rose 0.15% between January and February. This month-over-month national home price uptick comes after national prices had declined every month between June 2022 and January 2023.Chris and Saied look at news showing the continued decline of First Republic Bank's stock, an ongoing rout that has erased 60% of its value just this week on concerns about the bank's financial health in the wake of two other bank collapses.They also offer some thoughts on the apparent end of the severe contraction in the US housing market over the past year, a bottoming-out which is raising hopes on Wall Street that America could avoid a recession altogether.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:The definition of gross domestic product (GDP).Why businesses have been drawing down inventory and cutting equipment purchases.Why home values don’t just drop across the country at the same time.Why historically, housing has been a critical driver of the broader business cycle.And so much more...Resources:"GDP Report Shows Economic Growth Slowed in First Quarter" (The Wall Street Journal)"Bankers’ pitch to save First Republic: Help us now, or pay more later when it fails" (CNBC)"Housing market correction is running on fumes as Case-Shiller reports the first U.S. home price uptick since June—these 2 charts tell the story" (Fortune)"The housing market's bottoming-out raises hopes that the US can avoid a recession" (Bloomberg Business)"First Republic Bank Is a Problem With No Easy Solution" (The Wall Street Journal)"Google Ad Revenue Drops for Second Straight Quarter" (The Wall Street Journal)

Many critics have blasted new rules from the Biden administration that will force good-credit homebuyers to subsidize the costs of buyers with poor credit. One former Obama housing official is calling out the "unprecedented" move, arguing this is "not the way" to bring in more home buyers. New rules from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) will allow consumers with lower credit ratings and less money for a down payment to qualify for better mortgage rates than they otherwise would have. In turn, the costs are expected to be passed on the those with good credit. The rules are set to go into effect May 1.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss comments from tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya, who said two years ago that bitcoin had replaced gold and predicted the digital currency would climb to $200,000, who is now saying that "Crypto is dead in America," blaming its demise largely on regulators, who have gotten much more aggressive in their pursuit of bad actors in the industry.Chris and Saied look at reports that Bed Bath and Beyond has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after it failed in several last-ditch efforts to raise enough money to keep the company alive. It had been warning of a potential bankruptcy since early January, when it issued a “going concern” notice that it may not have the cash to cover expenses after a dismal holiday season.They also offer some thoughts on real estate magnate Sam Zell's assertion that "Remote work is a bunch of bullshit," speaking at a luncheon at NYU’s Schack Institute of Real Estate as part of its annual REIT Symposium.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:What is Moody's and why do its ratings matter?Why working from home is here to stay, but it's not for everyone.Why Google CEO’s compensation package includes $6 million for personal security.Why Coinbase's CEO Brian Armstrong says his company is preparing for a years-long court battle with the commission.And so much more...Resources:"Former Obama housing chief slams Biden’s ‘unprecedented’ mortgage plan: ‘Not the way to do it’" (Fox Business)"Frank's Charlie Javice moved millions from JPMorgan to Signature months before the bank collapsed" (Bloomberg Business)"More US consumers are falling behind on payments" (Yahoo! Finance)"Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet lead earnings rush: What to know this week" (Yahoo! Finance)"‘Crypto is dead in America,’ says longtime bitcoin bull Chamath Palihapitiya" (CNBC)"Meta has started its latest round of layoffs, focusing on technical employees" (CNBC)"Google’s 80-acre San Jose mega-campus is on hold as company reckons with economic slowdown" (CNBC)"BuzzFeed News Is Shutting Down, and Vice World News Could Be Next" (The Wall Street Journal)"Bed Bath & Beyond Files for Bankruptcy" (The Wall Street)"First Republic Lost $100 Billion in Deposits in Banking Panic" (The Wall Street Journal)"The Labor Market Might Be Bending; It Isn’t Breaking" (The Wall Street Journal)"Moody’s Downgrades 11 Regional Banks, Including Zions, U.S. Bank, Western Alliance" (The Wall Street Journal)"The Repo Man Returns as More Americans Fall Behind on Car Payments" (Bloomberg)"Remote work is ‘bull***t’ and the ‘office situation will change,’ says real estate billionaire Sam Zell: ‘People need to be together’" (Fortune)“US existing-home prices fall nearly 1% in March, the biggest drop in a decade” (MarketWatch)

The US economy stalled in recent weeks, with hiring and inflation slowing and access to credit narrowing, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts. "Overall economic activity was little changed in recent weeks," the Fed said in the report, published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. "Several districts noted that banks tightened lending standards amid increased uncertainty and concerns about liquidity. Overall price levels rose moderately during this reporting period, though the rate of price increases appeared to be slowing."In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a recent survey from LendingTree Inc., indicating that US consumers are increasingly using installment loans to pay for everyday items like groceries, highlighting the financial pain wrought by the worst inflation outbreak in four decades.Chris and Saied look at Meta’s latest round of job cuts, as employees with technical backgrounds like user experience, software engineering, graphics programming are being let go.They also offer some thoughts on earnings season, demystifying some of the terminology and concepts that get tossed about so that you can better understand what earnings reports mean for you and the economy.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:How credit is being impacted by the stalling US economy.The Federal Reserve's Beige Book: What it is and why it matters.The rise of 'buy now, pay later' services, and the negative impact they're having on consumers.The continued rash of layoffs in the tech sector - and soon, the banking sector as well.And so much more...Resources:"US Economy Stalls as Credit Narrows, Fed’s Beige Book Says" (Bloomberg)"Americans Go Deeper Into Debt as They Use Buy Now, Pay Later Apps for Groceries" (Bloomberg)"More US consumers are falling behind on payments" (Yahoo! Finance)"Meta has started its latest round of layoffs, focusing on technical employees" (CNBC)

According to data from Redfin, the median U.S. asking rent fell 0.4% year over year to $1,937 in March. That’s the first U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that banks are likely to become more cautious and may tighten lending further in the wake of recent bank failures, possibly negating the need for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. In a recent interview, Yellen said that policy actions to stem the systemic threat caused by last month's failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank had caused deposit outflows to stabilize, "and things have been calm."In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss the launch of Apple's 'Apple Card' savings account, with a 4.15% annual percentage yield. It requires no minimum deposit or balance, Apple said, and users can set up an account from the Wallet app on their iPhones.Chris and Saied look at a report from investment research firm Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), indicating that investors have grown voracious for apartment-building acquisitions in 2021 and 2022, having purchased $355.5 billion and $299.2 billion worth of apartment buildings, unprecedented sums that far surpassed the previous $194 billion record of multifamily sales in 2019.They also offer some thoughts on news that the National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index climbed to 45 in April, a 1-point gain, the highest since September. The index stood at 77 in April 2022.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:Why the Fed believes that unemployment is an inflationary trend.Why Chris believes inflation may be moderating.The degree of liability on the line for banking executives in the wake of the current crisis.Why difficulty getting loans and a lack of inventory has created a stalemate in the housing market.And so much more...Resources:"Yellen says US banks may tighten lending and negate need for more rate hikes" (Reuters)"Fed should let the economy equilibrate, says former Fed nominee Judy Shelton" (CNBC)"Warren Buffett Doesn't Hold Back When Asked About Failed Bank Execs" (TheStreet)"Credit-card balances have hit historic highs. Here’s why that’s a worrying sign." (Market Watch)"NO ATMs, no fees, and a 103-year old vault: Inside America's Smallest Bank" (Businessweek via Instagram)"Apple launches its savings account with 4.15% interest rate" (CNBC)"Rental Market Tracker: U.S. Rents Post First Annual Decline in Three Years" (Redfin)"Landlords pumped billions into apartment buildings during the pandemic. That bet could now go horribly wrong." (Yahoo! Finance)"Apple launches its savings account with 4.15% interest rate" (CNBC)"Charlie Javice, the founder accused of fraud by JPMorgan, is arrested as DOJ files criminal charges" (Fortune)"Bosses Pay Workers to Move Closer to Offices" (The Wall Street Journal)"Homebuilder sentiment rises in April, as builders grab near-record share of the market" (CNBC)"$134.1M! Wells Fargo CEO's retirement payout even bigger than thought" (USA Today)

Released Federal Reserve documents seem to indicate that fallout from the U.S. banking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later this year. Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) included a presentation from staff members on potential repercussions from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other tumult in the financial sector that began in early March.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a report from the Labor Department indicating that US producer prices unexpectedly fell in March as the cost of gasoline declined, along with signs that underlying producer inflation was subsiding.Chris and Saied look at analyst's estimates, suggesting that deposits at JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America will tumble $521 billion from a year earlier, the biggest drop in a decade.They also offer some thoughts on criminal fraud charges brought by the Department of Justice against Charlie Javice, founder and former CEO of Frank, a startup college financial planning company for students, in which they allege that she "engaged in a brazen scheme" when she sold her company to JPMorgan Chase in 2021.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You’ll Learn in this Show:The statistics that can be found behind the CPI report.The two main problems with the shelter component of the CPI report.Why the Fed expects a banking crisis to cause a recession this year.The ins and outs of the Charlie Javice fraud case.And so much more...Resources:"US consumer prices rise moderately; underlying inflation too hot" (Reuters)"US labor market gradually losing steam; producer inflation cooling" (Reuters)"U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fall in March" (Reuters)"Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show" (CNBC)"Top US banks to reveal $521 billion deposit drop, the most in a decade” (Bloomberg Business)"Deposit Crisis Sets Up a Tough First Quarter for All but the Biggest Banks" (The Wall Street Journal)"Charlie Javice, the founder accused of fraud by JPMorgan, is arrested as DOJ files criminal charges" (Fortune)"The Fed’s efforts to fight housing inflation by hiking interest rates has backfired, Cramer says" (CNBC)"Inflation rises just 0.1% in March and 5% from a year ago as Fed rate hikes take hold" (CNBC)"Bank Volatility to Cut U.S. Economic Growth, IMF Says" (The Wall Street Journal)"Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show” (CNBC)"Fed Keeps May Interest-Rate Increase on Table Despite Expected Recession" (The Wall Street Journal)