The Great Simplification with Nate Hagens

On this episode, Nate is joined by biophysical analyst Mario Giampietro to unpack his decades of research on a wide-lens view of the challenges facing the human system. With current metrics that only optimize for one variable, increasingly reductionist academic fields, and scientific communication consistently falling short, researchers who look at how all the pieces of our predicament fit together and most effectively help others understand will become more essential. How does the scope with which we look at a problem affect the subsequent information we gather and decisions we make? In what way should we frame the narratives that we create to best inform our leaders and the public about the obstacles of the future? Will taking on these issues from a different lens help to create better, multi-dimensional responses that include biophysical, cultural, and social components as we move into the coming decades? About Mario Giampietro: Mario Giampietro has recently retired from the Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona. Until September 2023, he was ICREA Research Professor at the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain. He has dedicated his academic career to the integrated assessment of (uncomfortable) sustainability issues using concepts from complex systems theory. He has developed a novel methodology, Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM), that integrates biophysical and socioeconomic variables across multiple scales, thus establishing a link between the metabolism of socio-economic systems and potential constraints of the natural environment. Recent research has focused on the nexus between land use, food, energy, and water in relation to SDGs. He has (co)authored over 150 publications, including six books. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/107-mario-giampietro To watch this video episode on Youtube → https://youtu.be/HFZ3NPPPPS0

On this episode, Nate is joined by Alexa Firmenich, whose work spans biodiversity advocacy, ESG investing, wilderness excursion facilitating, and podcasting/creative writing. Together, they philosophize on the importance of developing a connection to nature and understanding the - often overlooked - but critical function of biodiversity to the climate and other natural systems. Alexa also delves into her thinking about new economic and cultural models on human systems that could work within the biosphere. How can acknowledging our individual roles as a part of the Earth's larger system give us a new perspective on what it means to live among its other inhabitants? Why does a system full of external incentives ultimately disincentivize our natural human inclination toward pro-sociality? Will a future of lower energy throughput result in each of us rekindling the inherent connection with the land that we live on, leading to simpler lives - yet perhaps more fulfilling ones? About Alexa Firmenich: Alexa Firmenich is an investor, consultant and facilitator focused on climate and biodiversity. She is the co-director of SEED, a new center of the Crowther Lab at ETH Zurich. SEED is developing the world's most holistic measure of biodiversity that reflects multiple scale's of nature's complexity for any location on the planet, with the goal to steer financial and political decision-makers to crystallize the value of nature into the global economy. Alexa is also the founder of Ground Effect, an animist investment vehicle that supports early stage nature-based solutions, scientific research and new economic models. Parallel to this work she is trained as a group facilitator in leadership development and ecological pedagogy, designing multi-day learning journeys through her role at Leaders' Quest. She is also an author, podcast host of Lifeworlds, a founding board member of Terra Habitus, a Mexican environmental fund that operates large-landscape conservation and watershed restoration, and a wilderness guide. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/106-alexa-firmenich To watch this video episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/4POPay2sIr8

Recorded December 18 2023 Description In this Frankly, Nate follows up the recent Reality Roundtable on poverty with a wider perspective on the different types of "wealth" in our society that go beyond the material. At the same time that the power dynamic of the economic superorganism leads us to a hyperfocus on the pursuit of growth and monetary wealth, other forms of poverty increase: relationships, skills, health, and behavioral deficits. How do our assumptions and societal expectations align with the reality of what it means to be rich? Can reflecting on our own place within the various "Haves" and "Have-Nots" help us be more compassionate towards others and direct us to a more stable and sane place in society? How will the turmoil and decrease in total material wealth in the coming decades change what it means to be wealthy - and how does that influence the actions and investments we take on today? YouTube Link here For Show Notes and More:

On this episode, Nate is joined by climate researcher Leon Simons to unpack recent trends in global heating during 2023 and potential explanations and subsequent projections for the coming year. While the connection between human emitted greenhouse gasses and global warming is scientifically agreed upon, the other complexities and feedbacks of our climate system are still just beginning to be understood. Today, Leon theorizes on the intensity of aerosol masking from particulates such as sulfur, based on the connection between recent changes in marine fuel sulfur requirements and corresponding climate data. How will the global trend towards aerosol reductions affect near and long term global heating? What does this catch-22 mean for potential future climate action and policy? How should we be thinking about creating a more simplified global system in response to the unknown unknowns of our potential future climate? About Leon Simons Leon Simons is a climate researcher and science communicator at the Club of Rome Netherlands and is studying the effects of reduction in sulfur emissions on regional and global radiation changes and its impact on global heating. Most recently he was a co-author of the paper Global Warming in the Pipeline with renowned climate scientist James Hansen. Leon is also the founder of Magic Ventures BV, which works to make clean cooking technologies accessible to people everywhere. For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/105-leon-simons Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/RPAnoSt6FnY Slides referenced in this episode 15:43 - Slide 3 23:24 - Slide 3 24:30 - Slide 4 30:46 - Slide 5 32:29 - Slide 6 36:38 - Slide 7 39:55 - Slide 7 42:29 - Slide 8 50:55 - Slide 10

On this episode, toxicology scientist Dr. Jane Muncke joins Nate to discuss the current state of food production and the effects of ultra processed foods and their packaging on our health. Over the last century processed food has taken over our supermarkets and our diets, and at the same time the containers they're sold in have evolved as well - to be more eye-catching and keep food 'good' for longer. But what have we sacrificed in exchange for efficiency, ease, and convenience? How do the chemicals used in packaging and processing transfer into the food we eat and subsequently end up in our bodies? Will switching away from these toxic food practices require more local food supply chains - and correspondingly simpler diets and lifestyles? About Jane Muncke Jane Muncke holds a doctorate degree in environmental toxicology and a MSc in environmental science from the ETH Zurich. Since 2012 she has been working as Managing Director and Chief Scientific Officer at the charitable Food Packaging Forum Foundation (FPF) in Zurich, Switzerland. FPF is a research and science communication organization focusing on chemicals in all types of food contact materials. She is a full scientific member of the Society of Toxicology (SOT), the Society for Environmental Chemistry and Toxicology (SETAC), the American Chemical Society (ACS) and the Endocrine Society. Since 2019, she has been an elected expert member of the Swiss Organic Farming Association Bio Suisse's committee on trade and processing where she contributes to further developing the standards for processing and packaging of organic food. She is a director of the FAN initiative, a collective of experts warning about resource overshoot, the polycrisis, and related societal collapse. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/I2-roqSWjFo More info, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/104-jane-muncke

Recorded December 18 2023 Description In this Frankly, Nate offers a personal reflection on his learnings about 'awareness' vs 'focus' and how this knowledge could be used as a guide toward more thoughtful behaviors. The human body's system has evolved through time and the layers were built sequentially, each interacting and reacting to the systems below it. By becoming aware of this and attempting to balance them from the bottom up, we could move away from the reactionary tendencies that many in our culture are now pulled towards. How does an overstimulating, dopamine driven modern environment affect our brains ability to cope? How do our behaviors change when our systems are in a constant state of fear or dissatisfaction? What would the world look like if we spent more time reflecting and realigning rather than in perpetual fight, flight, or freeze mode? For Show Notes and to learn more: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/52-the-behavioral-stack To Watch on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QynYlsW35Sw&list=PLdc087VsWiC5im7eWkCD0t907MbOAftb3

On this episode, Nate is joined by Peter Brannen, science journalist and author specializing in Earth's prior mass extinctions, to unpack our planet's geologic history and what it can tell us about our current climate situation. Humans have become very good at uncovering the history of our planetary home - revealing distinct periods during billions of years of deep time that have disturbing similarities to our own present time. How is the carbon cycle the foundation of our biosphere - and how have changes to it in the past impacted life's ability to thrive? On the scales of geologic time, how do humans compare to the other species who have inhabited this planet - 99% of which have gone extinct - and will we end up being just a blip in the fossil record? How can an understanding of geologic and climate science prepare us for the environmental challenges we'll face in the coming decades? About Peter Brannen Peter Brannen is an award-winning science journalist and contributing writer at The Atlantic. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, Wired, Aeon, The Boston Globe, Slate and The Guardian among other publications. His 2017 book, The Ends of the World covers the five major mass extinctions in Earth's history. Peter is currently a visiting scholar at the Kluge Center at the Library of Congress and an affiliate at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado-Boulder. He was formerly a 2018 Scripps Fellow at CU-Boulder, a 2015 journalist-in-residence at the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center at Duke University, and a 2011 Ocean Science Journalism Fellow at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Woods Hole, MA. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/3l81C_11D7A More information, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/103-peter-brannen

On this episode, environmental activist and author Bill McKibben joins Nate for a reflection on the last few decades of climate education and movements – and the possibilities and challenges that we'll face ahead. Among a system that is dependent on growth and embedded in a biosphere full of limits (which we continue to surpass), working towards shifting our societies to be ecologically balanced is potentially the most important mission to which an individual can contribute - yet this is much easier said than done. What have been the largest barriers towards actual effective climate action since emissions have continued in a straight line up since the 20th century? What power structures stand as a barrier to proactive initiatives, and which ones could we utilize to propel movements forward? How can we prepare and organize at the individual, community, and national levels, as we look ahead to climate - and other - challenges we're likely to face in the coming decades? About Bill McKibben Bill McKibben is founder of Third Act, which organizes people over the age of 60 for action on climate and justice. His 1989 book The End of Nature is regarded as the first book for a general audience about climate change, and has appeared in 24 languages. He's gone on to write 20 books, and his work appears regularly in periodicals from the New Yorker to Rolling Stone. McKibben helped found 350.org, the first global grassroots climate campaign, which has organized protests on every continent, including Antarctica, for climate action. He played a leading role in launching the opposition to big oil pipeline projects like Keystone XL, and the fossil fuel divestment campaign, which has become the biggest anti-corporate campaign in history. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/qCrgpdHCO3U Find out more, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/102-bill-mckibben

Recorded December 17 2023 Description In this final Frankly of 2023, Nate outlines some global themes that are worth keeping an eye on in 2024. From climate change to domestic and global politics to an unstable financial system, world events continue to converge. How will the social fabric of our society respond as changes to our current way of life continue to grow? How do these seemingly isolated events interconnect and enhance each other? How will governments, businesses, and individuals respond to these circumstances as more people are propelled from the lives we've become used to and into an unfolding Great Simplification? For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/51-systemic-themes-for-2024 To watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/xgMv73iabjQ

On this episode, Arthur Berman returns to unpack the complexity underpinning the oil trends of the last 75 years and what new data can tell us about availability in the coming years. After decades of declining oil production in the United States, the past decade of rising oil extraction has eased many worries about peak oil. But the past few years of continued growth have been obtained by using "a larger straw", merely delaying the inevitability of the depletion of a finite resource. Art presents recent data on well productivity in US shale plays indicating we are much closer to 'the slurping sound'. How does technology hide the declining availability of oil reserves, causing us to extract and use them faster without creating any new resources? Going beyond geology, how do geopolitics, finance, and social opinion affect oil availability? Where do we go when economically viable oil isn't available anymore - and will we have the prudence to make the cultural shifts necessary before we have no other options? Have we now passed 'peak oil'? About Arthur Berman Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 36 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/qqTh2nBEcCs Find out more, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/101-art-berman

On this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by four professionals with decades of experience working with low-income communities, Stephanie Hoopes, Peter Kilde, Marc Perry, and Dalitso Sulamoyo to discuss the state of poverty in the United States. Even in the wealthiest country in the world, poverty is a pernicious problem - and in a future that is more resource constrained it will only get worse. Do the current official measurements of poverty accurately portray the living standards of most Americans? How are poverty and agency entangled, and how do we empower both for people who currently aren't meeting survivability standards? What role does community and social capital play in alleviating resource limitations and creating a better quality of life? About Stephanie Hoopes Stephanie Hoopes, PhD, is the National Director of United For ALICE at United Way of Northern New Jersey. She developed the ALICE (Asset, Limited, Income, Constrained, Employed) measures for a pilot study of the low-income community in Morris County while at Rutgers University-Newark, and has since overseen the expansion to a national effort with ALICE data for all 3,000 U.S. counties. Her research has garnered the attention of local, state, and national media. Dr. Hoopes has a doctorate degree from the London School of Economics. About Peter Kilde Peter Kilde has been ED of West CAP, an anti-poverty community action agency in West Central Wisconsin since 1995. West CAP has developed and manages multiple low-income housing projects, and operates homelessness, weatherization, food security, adult literacy and skills, and various sustainable community programs. Peter served on the National Community Action Partnership Board of Directors, where he established and co-chaired the Partnership for Climate Resilience which focuses on how CAP agencies across America can help their communities adapt to Climate Change. Peter also serves on the Wisconsin Community Action Program Association (WISCAP) Board, the regional Workforce Development Board. About Marc Perry Marc Perry has more than 25 years' experience working with youth and adults from diverse backgrounds. Marc currently serves as the Executive Director for Community Action Inc., of Rock and Walworth Counties where he is responsible for making sure the organization stays true to its mission of moving families toward economic self-reliance. Marc provides training and technical assistance for partner organizations and facilitates cultural equity workshops for both private and public institutions, including school districts, NGOs and law enforcement entities throughout the Midwest. About Dalitso Sulamoyo Dalitso Sulamoyo was born and raised in Malawi, South East Africa. Since moving to the United States of America in the early 1990s, he has made economic and social justice a focal part of his career. Dalitso Sulamoyo has been the Chief Executive Officer of the Champaign County Regional Planning Commission since June 2017. As the CEO, Dalitso oversees a multi-faceted government agency with over 140 different federal, state, and local grants and contracts with a budget of over $6million. The agency's services range from transportation planning, police training, energy efficiency training, community services, workforce development, economic and community development to early childhood education for income eligible families. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/rr07-hoopes-kilde-perry-sulamoyo To watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/359aiDUDHRo

In this week's Frankly, we join Nate in a fascinating thought experiment imagining participants in this week's COP 28 in Dubai are liberated from the usual social sorting mechanisms which constrain real, forthright, challenging conversation around solving our most dire issues. What questions might participants ask at COP28 if there were no fear of losing social status and how might this liberation change the conversation around global heating? As social primates, there is a stainless steel ceiling on how much we can say in large groups of other humans -especially high status ones. Like the famous "smoke under the door" experiment of the 1970s, as the events of our world get more complex and more threatening, our first reality filter is observing the response of contemporaries. If they are unconcerned, we too tend to be. Unlike the one-room controlled college experiment, we now live in a smoke filled world, and the stakes couldn't be higher. If you were sitting in Dubai at the convening of COP 28, what question would you ask given the state of the world right now?? For Show Notes and to learn more: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/50-cop-28-and-the-smoke-under-the-door To Watch on YouTube

On this special 100th episode, Nate is interviewed by his friend and colleague in the metacrisis space, Kate Raworth. The conversation is a reflection on the past two years of podcasting – and how Nate's worldview has evolved because of it. What fundamental concepts could help us better understand the trends happening around us and the potential futures they point to? With so many moving pieces, how can we begin to create a coherent story of the world around us and - even more difficult - start preparing responses to coming challenges? What should individuals aware of these converging crises be thinking about in order to prepare themselves, their families, and their communities for a materially smaller future? About Nate Hagens Nate Hagens is the Director of The Institute for the Study of Energy & Our Future (ISEOF) an organization focused on educating and preparing society for the coming cultural transition. Allied with leading ecologists, energy experts, politicians and systems thinkers, ISEOF assembles road-maps and off-ramps for how human societies can adapt to lower throughput lifestyles. Nate holds a Masters Degree in Finance with Honors from the University of Chicago and a Ph.D. in Natural Resources from the University of Vermont. He teaches an Honors course, Reality 101, at the University of Minnesota. About Kate Raworth Kate Raworth describes herself as a renegade economist focused on making economics fit for 21st century realities. She is the creator of the Doughnut of social and planetary boundaries, and co-founder of Doughnut Economics Action Lab, based on her best-selling book Doughnut Economics: 7 Ways to Think Like a 21st Century Economist. Kate is a Senior Associate at Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute, where she teaches on the Masters in Environmental Change and Management. She is also Professor of Practice at Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences. She is a member of the Club of Rome and currently serves on the World Health Organisation Council on the Economics of Health for All. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/GocuMZX3hIs Learn more, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/100-nate-hagens

On this episode, Nate is joined by co-founder of GMO Financial Holdings, Jeremy Grantham, to discuss how finance, human population, ecology, and pollution interact to shape current trends and what they could tell us about the future. Mr. Grantham unpacks why the expectations of perpetual growth - in the economy, standards of living, and finance - are not so likely and that when looking at the system holistically we should expect large paradigm shifts in the coming decades. What can the pattern of super (stock market) bubbles over the last century tell us about the larger resource bubble we find ourselves in? How will rapidly changing population demographics and fertility rates interact with the other global crises we face? How might endocrine disrupting chemicals impact these other trends? Where should investors be focusing energy and resources towards to make the largest and most positive impact on human and planetary futures? About Jeremy Grantham Jeremy Grantham co-founded GMO in 1977 and is a member of GMO's Asset Allocation team, serving as the firm's long-term investment strategist. He is a member of the GMO Board of Directors, a partner of the firm, and has also served on the investment boards of several non-profit organizations. Prior to GMO's founding, Mr. Grantham was co-founder of Batterymarch Financial Management in 1969 where he recommended commercial indexing in 1971, one of several claims to being first. He began his investment career as an economist with Royal Dutch Shell. Mr. Grantham earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Sheffield (U.K.) and an MBA from Harvard Business School. He is a member of the Academy of Arts and Sciences, holds a CBE from the UK and is a recipient of the Carnegie Medal for Philanthropy. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/99-jeremy-grantham To watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/cTvN9iFJ0fY

In this Frankly, a follow up to "One Ring to Rule Them All", Nate unpacks the common misconception that AI is the answer to all our energy and ecological problems, specifically climate change. As the development of AI continues to accelerate, many propose that we are entering the 'Exponential Age', yet what's ignored is that we've just lived through an age of exponential impact on Earth's systems. Under this same 'operating system', AI can at best act as a more powerful tool for the continuation of this phenomenon - not to restore ecological stability as some would hope. If AI is based on current cultural goals and aspirations, who will ultimately benefit and who will pay the costs? What types of solutions is AI capable of developing - and more importantly, where is the interplay of AI and human responsibility required to then implement those ideas to fruition? To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/zY29LjWYHIo For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/49-ai-vs-real-ecology

On this episode, political economist Helen Thompson and Nate discuss how energy and geopolitics have interconnected over the past century, building to the entangled political relationships we see around us today. The dynamics of power on a global scale are complex - stemming from access to energy, financial control, military strength, credibility/trust, and much more - yet we can understand these a bit better by learning the history that shaped them. How have geologic provinces of energy dense carbon created inherent hot spots on the geopolitical playing field? How has the global monetary system and debt evolved to strengthen the power of a select few countries and how difficult is it to break from this system? Do our leaders have the capability/knowledge to connect energy and geopolitical policy in order to guide us through a future of declining energy availability? About Helen Thomspon: Helen Thompson is Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge since 1994. Her current research concentrates on the political economy of energy and the long history of the democratic, economic, and geopolitical disruptions of the twenty-first century. She is a regular panelist on Talking Politics and a columnist for the New Statesman. She is a co-presenter of UnHerd's podcast, These Times and recently published Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/98-helen-thompson To watch this video episode on Youtube → https://youtu.be/FQbdNXQcT3E

Show Summary: On this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by small-scale farmer Jason Bradford, permaculturist and documentarian Andrew Millison, regenerative agriculture activist Vandana Shiva, and regenerative farmer and educator Daniel Zetah to discuss the feasibility of a food system fully or mostly independent of fossil fuel inputs. While a non-industrialized agriculture system is certainly possible (it was the norm for the majority of human history), what that will look like and how we even begin such a transition is daunting with a population of 8 billion humans to feed. How do we teach people the skills they'll need as fossil inputs become less affordable, reliable, and accessible? Can we create a cultural shift towards a slower lifestyle that is more connected to the land which provides us food? What do the people of a society look like where we are once again centered around agriculture and in tune with the flows of nature? How would our relationship with jobs and the land have to change? About Jason Bradford: Jason Bradford has been affiliated with Post Carbon Institute since 2004, first as a Fellow and then as Board President. He worked for the Center for Conservation and Sustainable Development at the Missouri Botanical Garden, was a Visiting Scholar at U.C. Davis, and during that period co-founded the Andes Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research Group (ABERG). He decided to shift from academia to learn more about and practice sustainable agriculture, and in the process, completed six months of training with Ecology Action (aka GrowBiointensive) in Willits, California, and then founded Brookside School Farm. About Andrew Millison: Andrew Millison is an innovative educator, storyteller and designer. He founded the Permaculture Design education program at Oregon State University (OSU) in 2009. At OSU Andrew serves as an Education Director and Senior Instructor who offers over 25 years of experience, and a playful approach to regenerative design. Andrew is also a documentary videographer who travels the world documenting epic permaculture projects in places such as India, Egypt, Mexico, Cuba, and throughout the US. You can view his videos and series on his YouTube channel. About Vandana Shiva Vandana Shiva is a well known activist, author of many books, and is a global champion on regenerative local agriculture, biodiversity and nutritious food. She has a PhD in physics and 40 years ago founded the Research Foundation for Science, Technology and Ecology, an independent research institute that works on the most significant ecological problems of our times. About Daniel Zetah: Daniel grew up on a farm in Minnesota where he learned to fix all manner of things driven from an insatiable curiosity about how things worked. He studied economics and business at university. After waking to our planetary predicament, he became a full time environmental activist, then moved to an off grid community in the mountains where he studied permaculture and built straw bale houses. He moved back to America to help steer culture in a more sane direction. He and his wife Stephanie moved back to the family farm in Minnesota where they are growing 80% of their calories, rebuilding the local ecology, and educating and empowering people to wrest back control of their sovereignty as human beings. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/rr06-bradford-millison-shiva-zetah To watch this video episode on Youtube → https://youtu.be/lb2tJXopTJA

(Conversation recorded on November 2nd, 2023) Show Summary: On this episode, Nate is re-joined by risk expert Chuck Watson for a candid discussion of recent news regarding the nuclear developments between Russia and the United States. As the world's attention is focused on the events in the Middle East, US testing and development of new nuclear weapons and Russia's decision to pull out of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty last week have been overlooked and underreported by major media. Yet, in the bigger picture these trends represent some of the most imminent risks to life on Earth as we know it. What is the history behind this framework of trust that took decades to develop, and how quickly might our current fear spiral destroy it? Are the people in positions of power aware of the dangers of this situation and acting with appropriate caution? What should concerned individuals and leaders understand and advocate for to minimize this truly existential risk? About Chuck Watson: Chuck Watson has had a long career in military and intelligence work, with a specialty in natural and human made disaster modeling. He worked for the US Air Force, was an attache to US Ambassadors to the Middle East Robert McFarland, and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld as a Soviet expert. Chuck has worked as an advisor to the military for over four decades with a particular emphasis on big data, open source intelligence, with an emphasis on the Soviet Union and Russia. Chuck is also the founder and Director of Research and Development of Enki Holdings, LLC, which designs computer models for phenomena ranging from tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and other weather phenomena, earthquakes, and tsunamis, as well as anthropogenic hazards such as industrial accidents, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/97-chuck-watson To watch this video episode on Youtube → https://youtu.be/8T9vGNNdKKs

Recorded October 31 2023 Description In this Frankly, Nate expands on our conventional definition of "taxes" to highlight nine other categories that will 'tax' our modern lifestyles. Traditionally, when we think of net and gross income, we only think of direct government taxes that subtract from what we take home. What are other taxes - resulting from our system's ecology - which will factor into the way society can pay for the goods and services we've become used to? As converging global crises intensify and each add their own 'tax', can we learn to manage with a smaller "net " resource balance sheet - and maintain our time, sanity, and humanity through the coming decades? Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/27WBbdMcfmM For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/48-the-biophysical-taxman-cometh

On this episode, Nate is joined by 'permaculture' author and educator David Holmgren to discuss his experience within the movement and what it might look like for more systems to be designed using permaculture in the future. While often thought to be an agricultural tool, permaculture thinking is meant for designing human systems to be embedded in nature - an important principle for a future where societies will need to re-synchronize with natural flows. What does it mean for permaculture design to 'scale up', and how is it different from how we usually think about growing a system? How will permaculture design change as we move through different phases of resource availability? More importantly, how can the 'small and slow' foundation of permaculture help human societies adapt to a lower throughput future as we navigate The Great Simplification? About David Holmgren David Holmgren is best known as the co-originator of permaculture. In 1978, he and Bill Mollison published Permaculture One, starting the global permaculture movement. Since then, David has developed three properties, consulted and supervised on urban and rural projects, written eight more books, and presented lectures, workshops and courses in Australia and around the world. His writings over those three decades span a diversity of subjects and issues, whilst always illuminating aspects of permaculture thinking and living. Holmgren Design would like to offer a discount on RetroSuburbia to The Great Simplification listeners. Get a 20% discount on RetroSuburbia plus a free copy of Our Street for the month of November by using code: Nate at this link: http://retrosuburbia.com/nate Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/A9hW4Jh9hF0 Show Notes & Links to Learn More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/96-david-holmgren

Recorded October 27 2023 Description In this forty-seventh Frankly, Nate reflects on…..Franklys. As real time global events move faster and faster, they alter the timing (and content!) of planned Frankly reflections on aspects of our global discourse. In light of this, Nate offers a raw take on events in Israel (and financial markets) and a growing list of upcoming topics relevant to the unfolding human predicament. The purpose of these Franklys is not to provide real time intel or analysis but is instead to continually provide a systems lens to inform the scout team of humans who seek an integrated world view to inform their actions. Our tendencies to focus on single issues - the war in Israel, the geo-political impacts of the Russia/Ukraine war, the growing financial crisis and debt, global heating - challenges our ability to build a broader awareness of how these pieces fit together and shine light on the viable paths we can still take to the future. Is it possible to focus less on productivity and more on awareness and reflection? Can we effectively change the consciousness of those in power? How can we attempt to navigate the ever-shorter road to the Great Simplification? For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/47-frankly-re-franklys To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/ZJbKVu7vbLk

On this episode, Nate is joined by climate scientist and policy ambassador Sir David King to unpack the current situation regarding Earth's climate system and human response (or lack thereof) to the accelerating heating of the atmosphere. While there are many uncertainties this field still grapples with, the fundamentals of the rising average global temperature as a response to increasing man-made greenhouse emissions are widely recognized by the global scientific community. Yet - especially in the United States - climate change remains a contentious issue, making it an even tougher political topic with no easy solutions. What is the basic science behind our understanding of the atmosphere? Will we resort to geoengineering to avert the worst climate outcomes - and which plans look the most promising? What are the implications of global heating for the coming decades and beyond? About Sir. David King Sir David King is an Emeritus Professor of Physical Chemistry at the University of Cambridge. He is the Chair of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, Founder of the Centre for Climate Repair at Cambridge, and an Affiliate Partner of SYSTEMIQ Limited. He was the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser from 2000-2007 and the Foreign Secretary's Special Representative on Climate Change from 2013-2017. He also spearheaded a collaborative program called Mission Innovation, which involved 25 countries and the EU to create a publicly funded £23bn pa research and development international exercise aimed at delivering all technologies needed to complete the transition into a fossil-fuel-free world economy. He has been a Fellow of the Royal Society since 1991 and a Foreign Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences since 2002. Sir Dave was knighted in 2003 and made "Officier dans l'ordre national de la Légion d'Honneur" in 2009. Recently, he was also named The American Association for the Advancement of Science 2022 Hamburg Awardee for Science Diplomacy. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/u7jETRJrkmk Show Notes & Links to Learn More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/95-sir-david-king

On this Special episode Nate speaks once again with risk expert Chuck Watson for a critical assessment of the unfolding situation around Israel which adds to the rapidly escalating dangers of our current geopolitical landscape. As tensions rise, the potential risks that geopolitical confrontation in the Middle East poses could spill over into energy, economic systems, and our social fabric - Chuck lends his deep expertise and decades of experience to shed light on these complex dynamics. How do our individual perspectives of where history begins influence who we see as "good" or "evil" and is it even possible to find an unbiased source of 'truth'? What does Western diplomacy look like in a world no longer based on fear - and will the United States risk being stretched too thin trying to preserve the unipolar world of past generations? How do we even begin to navigate the minefield of geopolitical tensions that seem to be growing daily so as to maintain some sort of stability that avoids catastrophic outcomes in coming years? About Chuck Watson Chuck Watson has had a long career in military and intelligence work, with a specialty in natural and human made disaster modeling. He worked for the US Air Force, was an attache to US Ambassadors to the Middle East Robert McFarland, and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld as a Soviet expert. Chuck has worked as an advisor to the military for over four decades with a particular emphasis on big data, open source intelligence, with an emphasis on the Soviet Union and Russia. Chuck is also the founder and Director of Research and Development of Enki Holdings, LLC, which designs computer models for phenomena ranging from tropical cyclones (hurricanes) and other weather phenomena, earthquakes, and tsunamis, as well as anthropogenic hazards such as industrial accidents, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction. Show Notes & Links to Learn More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/94-chuck-watson

On this episode, Nate is joined by energy industry professional Joris van der Schot to explain the basics of oil refineries, their limitations, and other cultural narratives about energy. Oil is the lifeblood of our economies, yet most of us know so little about how it actually becomes all the different final products that we use. Just how massive is the scale of our energy consumption? How flexible and resilient are oil refineries to shifting oil demand? Can we keep an open mind to realistic and helpful innovations while also grounding our preparations for the future in practical energy strategy ahead of The Great Simplification? About Joris van der Schot Joris van der Schot is a former Royal Dutch Shell executive with over a decade of international experience in the oil industry, where he held roles as a control systems engineer, corporate strategy advisor, refinery economist and lastly, the company's global aviation gasoline supply manager.After a sabbatical year in Provence, Joris left the oil industry and set out on a quest to accelerate the clean energy transition through breakthrough technology. He currently works at french scale-up Energy Pool, providing storage and other flexibility services that enable the integration of renewable energy on the electricity grid. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/kmzzIWkTLyU More info, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/93-joris-van-der-schot

On this Reality Roundtable, philosopher and writer Dougald Hine, social scientist and farmer Chris Smaje, and ecologist and farmer Pella Thiel join Nate to discuss the future of food and community. Our disconnected relationship to agriculture and our neighbors have been shaped by a modern industrial society fueled by surplus hydrocarbon energy. What will these relationships look like in a lower energy future, where we need to once again work with each other and the land, rather than in isolation. Can we learn from history to celebrate with each other in times of abundance and find strength in community in times of need? In the present world where people are in constant search for meaning and purpose, what are strategies to find joy in simplicity and well-being through the growing and sharing of food? About Dougald Hine Dougald Hine is a social thinker, writer and speaker. After an early career as a BBC journalist, he co-founded organizations including the Dark Mountain Project and a school called HOME. His latest book is At Work in the Ruins: Finding Our Place in the Time of Science, Climate Change, Pandemics & All the Other Emergencies (2023). He co-hosts The Great Humbling podcast and publishes a Substack called Writing Home. About Chris Smaje Chris Smaje is a writer, social scientist and small-scale farmer, co-running a mixed holding in Somerset, southwest England. He's the author of A Small Farm Future (2020) and Saying NO to a Farm-Free Future (2023), both published by Chelsea Green. He blogs at and is contactable via www.chrissmaje.com. About Pella Thiel Pella Thiel is a maverick ecologist, part-time farmer, full-time activist and teacher in ecopsychology. She is the co-founder of swedish hubs of international networks like Swedish Transition Network and End Ecocide Sweden and a knowledge expert in the UN Harmony with Nature programme. Pella was awarded the swedish Martin Luther King Award in 2023 and the Environmental Hero of the year 2019. Watch on YouTube https://youtu.be/NVeCw-Ljenk Show Notes & Links to Learn More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/rr05-hine-smaje-thiel

In this Frankly, Nate shares his perspective on the recent events in the Middle East and how they could lead to a shortening of the timeline to The Great Simplification. For those fortunate to live outside the direct impacts of these conflicts, many feel pressure to stay informed about this turbulent, global landscape. Is it possible to also remain grounded in the present realities of our daily lives? How do individual responses to this past week's geopolitical events vary depending on the livelihood demands of the here and now? Is it possible to live simply in our own lives while also engaging globally ahead of the Great Simplification? For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/46-the-middle-east-stormwatch To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/wODlwoKJEE0

On this episode, Art Berman returns to give a broad update on the state of global oil - from BRICS+ and shale oil to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and oil investment. As Art says, 'oil is the economy' and understanding the complex dynamics of the oil market provides insight into the entire economic system. How do geological luck and foreign policy create the global stage for oil markets? What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, have we been misusing it, and does it matter in comparison to larger energy policy blunders? What are the current dynamics affecting oil prices and how will this affect the long term out-look of oil availability? Please note: this episode was recorded prior to the Israel/Palestine events of last weekend. About Arthur Berman Arthur E. Berman is a petroleum geologist with 36 years of oil and gas industry experience. He is an expert on U.S. shale plays and is currently consulting for several E&P companies and capital groups in the energy sector. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/n-IetuaYLmw More info, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/92-art-berman

In this Frankly, Nate refers to a favorite timeless book series, The Lord of the Rings, to describe 'the nine rings for mortal men' - behavioral tendencies that are common among humans based on our evolutionary nature but become counterproductive within modern culture. These traits drive the growth of the Superorganism through 'one ring to rule them all', the amassing of power and the synergy of agricultural surplus, fossil energy, money, and Artificial Intelligence. Can this out of control power dynamic be broken and redirected away from the influence of the One Ring? Will we have the courage and wisdom to stop our drive to amass power as we approach the Great Simplification? For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/45-one-ring-to-rule-them-all To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/zXgIAQZu3I4

On this episode, financial analyst Luke Gromen joins Nate to discuss how the availability of cheap energy has underpinned our current financial architecture and expectations - and what peak cheap oil implies for the future. A central part of this story is the rise of the US dollar as a global reserve currency tightly linked with the ability to purchase oil - subsequently leading to the US becoming a major exporter of debt. How have countries with economies based on natural resources and manufacturing differed in their response to geopolitical uncertainty in comparison to those who are based around finance and the service industry? What might the response be from countries holding US debt in anticipation of a declining oil supply? What does this mean for the future of global currencies in a simplified global economy and a finance system that will eventually need to be re-tethered to the finite nature of Earth? About Luke Gromen: Luke Gromen is the Founder and President of research firm Forest For The Trees, LLC, whose goal is to aggregate a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for clients. Luke founded FFTT to apply what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a "unique ability to connect the dots" during a time when he saw an increasing "silo-ing" of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America. Luke has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/91-luke-gromen To watch this video episode on Youtube → https://youtu.be/bIq0o40Jo80

On this episode, Nate is joined by Professor Nick Haddad, a conservation scientist with a focus on butterflies and other insects. Nick unpacks what decades of research have indicated about the declining state of insect populations, which act as the foundation of critical ecosystem functions. The overlooked degradation of butterflies, beetles, bees, ants, ladybugs, and countless other species have huge ripple effects across our local and global ecological functions - from a loss of bird populations to a reduced ability to grow food. Why are we not more concerned about the health and vitality of these critical organisms? Can humans - or life as we know it - survive without these little creatures? What can we do as individuals, businesses, and governments to help insects rebound as quickly as possible, and in turn strengthen the health of everything else. About Nick Haddad Professor Nick Haddad is co-lead of the Long Term Ecological Research site at Kellogg Biological Station at Michigan State University. He leads decades-long, landscape-scale experiments that bring scientific principles to conservation actions. He studies how landscape diversity, including prairie strips through croplands, affect biodiversity, especially of plants and insects, and of ecosystem services including pollination, biocontrol, and decomposition. For three decades he has led the world's largest experiment testing the role of landscape corridors in increasing dispersal of most plant and animal species, and increasing plant diversity. He has conducted long-term restoration experiments to guide conservation of rare butterflies in the face of climate and land use change. Nick brings together ideas in science and management through ConservationCorridor.org. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/_qzS5Nig4_w Show notes and more info: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/90-nick-haddad

On this episode, Nate is joined by Sian Sutherland, a leader in the movement towards reducing the overconsumption of plastic and its waste. The modern era is dependent on fossil fuels for many reasons - one of the most covertly ubiquitous ones being plastic. Everyday we are surrounded by it - encasing our food, woven in the threads of our clothes, and even permeating into the water that we drink. How do we begin to break off this addiction to the convenience and utility of plastics? How does this connect to the larger implications of a society embedded in a linear, consumption-based system dependent on growth? What role can industry, governments, and individuals each play in creating structural shifts to reduce our reliance on plastic - and ultimately return to a slower, more circular way of life? About Sian Sutherland Sian Sutherland is Co-founder of A Plastic Planet, one of the most recognised and respected organizations tackling the plastic crisis. More recently, she also co-founded PlasticFree, the first materials and systems solutions platform, empowering the 160m global creatives to design waste out at the source. Sian was awarded the Female Marketer of the Year, Entrepreneur of the Year, and British Inventor of the Year. In 2023 at the UN Plastics Treaty negotiations (INC2), in partnership with Plastic Soup Foundation, A Plastic Planet launched the Plastic Health Council, bringing expert scientists to the negotiating process with the irrefutable proof of plastic chemicals impact on human health. Passionately pro-business and solutions focused, Sian believes the plastic crisis gives mankind a rare gateway to change both materials and systems to create a different future for next generations. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/jTs6KejhSg4 More Info & Show Notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/89-sian-sutherland

On this episode, neuroscientist and author Robert Sapolsky joins Nate to discuss the structure of the human brain and its implication on behavior and our ability to change. Dr. Sapolsky also unpacks how the innate quality of a biological organism shaped by evolution and the surrounding environment - meaning all animals, including humans - leads him to believe that there is no such thing as free will, at least how we think about it today. How do our past and present hormone levels, hunger, stress, and more affect the way we make decisions? What implications does this have in a future headed towards lower energy and resource availability? How can our species manage the mismatch of our evolutionary biology with our modern day challenges - and navigate through a 'determined' future? About Robert Sapolsky: Robert Sapolsky is professor of biology and neurology at Stanford University and a research associate with the Institute of Primate Research at the National Museum of Kenya. Over the past thirty years, he has divided his time between the lab, where he studies how stress hormones can damage the brain, and in East Africa, where he studies the impact of chronic stress on the health of baboons. Sapolsky is author of several books, including Why Zebras Don't Get Ulcers, A Primate's Memoir, Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst, and his newest book coming out in October, Determined: Life Without Free Will. He lives with his family in San Francisco. Watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/xhobcj2K9v4 For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/88-robert-sapolksy

On this Reality Roundtable, marine biologist Daniel Pauly, ocean physicist Antonio Turiel, and paleobiologist Peter Ward join Nate to discuss the numerous oft-overlooked threats to the Earth's great oceans. From overfishing and plastic pollution to climate change and acidification, the human system is assaulting one of the most important regulators for our climate and the largest habitat for life - anywhere. What early indicators of climate impacts are these great bodies of water showing us as we hit record heat across the oceans, fish populations dwindle, and major currents slow? Why are concerns for the ocean so overlooked and what further research needs to be done? Will we learn to value these high seas for all the priceless value they give us, or will we take them for granted until it's too late? About Daniel Pauly Dr. Daniel Pauly is a Killam Professor at the University of British Columbia. In 1999, Daniel Pauly founded, and since leads, a large research project, Sea Around Us, devoted to identifying and quantifying global fisheries trends. Daniel Pauly is also co-founder of FishBase.org, the online encyclopedia of more than 30,000 fish species, and he has helped develop the widely-used Ecopath modeling software. He is the author or co-author of over 1000 scientific and other articles, books and book chapters on fish, fisheries and related topics. About Antonio Turiel Antonio Turiel Martínez is a scientist and activist with a degree in Physics and Mathematics and a PhD in Theoretical Physics from the Autonomous University of Madrid. He works as a senior scientist at the Institute of Marine Sciences of the CSIC specializing in remote sensing, turbulence, sea surface salinity, water cycle, sea surface temperature, sea surface currents, and chlorophyll concentration. He has written more than 80 scientific articles, but he is better known as an online activist and editor of The Oil Crash blog, where he addresses sensitive issues about the depletion of conventional fossil fuel resources, such as the peak of oil and its possible implications on a world scale. About Peter Ward Peter Ward is a Professor of Biology and Earth and Space Sciences at the University of Washington. He is author of over a dozen books on Earth's natural history including On Methuselah's Trail: Living Fossils and the Great Extinctions; Under a Green Sky; and The Medea Hypothesis, 2009, (listed by the New York Times as one of the "100 most important ideas of 2009"). Ward gave a TED talk in 2008 about mass extinctions. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/tSgPQyq_jyE More information & show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/rr04-pauly-turiel-ward

In this Frankly, Nate describes the Carbon Pulse - a one time massive consumption of fossil hydrocarbons at a pace millions of times faster than they were created. He outlines the many shapes that this pulse could take, as well as some shapes it will never take. Compared to previous carbon pulses that led to mass and minor extinctions, how does the modern pulse compare? What can what we know about ecology and human behavior tell us about the most likely paths into descent? Can thinking about these graphs on such grand geologic time scales help guide us away from the Precipice and towards a more Sapient Future? For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/44-the-many-shapes-of-the-carbon-pulse To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/BjG7a58Y0Ig

On this episode, Nate is joined by Graham Palmer, a scholar and engineer in the field of energy. While this show frequently covers the importance of energy itself, this discussion focuses on how the ability to store and access energy has critically shaped societies. From agriculture, to wood, to coal, to oil, each transition has marked a new way for humans to interact with the world around them. What would it mean for economic growth if we no longer have access to these storable energies? What does the necessity of storability mean for electricity - an inherently flow-based energy form? Would human societies moving back to a flow-based energy system also mean once again becoming in-sync with the Earth and her ecosystems? About Graham Palmer Graham Palmer is a researcher at Monash University, with an industry background as an engineer and researcher in manufacturing, HVAC and electronics. He has published in the area of biophysical economics, renewable energy, life-cycle analysis, and energy-economic modeling. Graham obtained his PhD in the area of energy-return-on-investment (EROI) of electricity supply. His current research interests include the future role of emerging energy storage systems. Listen on YouTube: https://youtu.be/tSsp_XyXfyY More info and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/87-graham-palmer

In this week's Frankly, Nate reacts to recent analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) critical of 2022 subsidies to fossil fuel. These subsidies - by IMF math totalling $7+ trillion - are not what they seem, resulting in widespread confusion on what is really going on. By peeling back the layers of the onion on these oft-misunderstood benefits - Nate outlines what comprises these fossil fuel subsidies, who receives them, the purpose they serve, and who benefits from them (spoiler alert - we ALL do). How do these subsidies fit into the larger story of the huge energy surplus that fossil fuels have provided? What will it mean for societies when the subsidy that is fossil fuels goes away? Will we be prepared when the externalities - paid for in these subsidies - catch up with us and we need to learn to live with the aftermath of the Carbon Pulse? To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/DpcjHqXYrFs For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/43-fossil-energy-subsidies-the-bottom-line

On this episode, 'Superorganisms' converge as Nate is joined by economist and anthropologist Lisi Krall to discuss the evolutionary origins of our current systemic predicament. Starting with the Agricultural Revolution, the evolutionary conditions of surplus and ultrasociality have combined to shape the way humans interact with their environment, ultimately leading to our current out of control global economy. Is this global system an inevitable emergent phenomenon of the human condition? Does surplus inherently breed inequality and hierarchy, such as the current capitalist system? What type of social evolution will we experience as we meet the limits of an expansionary system and move towards a Great Simplification? About Lisi Krall Lisi Krall is a professor of economics at State University of New York, Cortland. Dr. Krall engages a heterodox and transdisciplinary approach to understanding economic systems, their etiology, structure, dynamic, and the relationship between humans and the more-than-human world that is contextualized through them. She incorporates evolutionary biology, anthropology, history, heterodox economics, and deep materialism to understand how we arrived at this paradoxical moment where humans appear trapped in an economic system that functions as if it is not of this Earth at the same time it is clearly a material system. Her latest book, Bitter Harvest: An Inquiry into the War Between Economy and Earth, explores the formation and evolution of the economic system (the economic superorganism) that took hold beginning with the cultivation of annual grains and is now embodied in global capitalism. For Show Notes and more: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/86-lisi-krall Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/eQNI4bUv_Fs More details & show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/86-lisi-krall

In this week's Frankly, Nate considers 7 different continuums of perspectives people use when taking part in a "systems" discourse, such as The Great Simplification podcast is attempting. In such complex and often controversial discussions, each of us has a point of view that stems from our own personal experiences, knowledge and identity - yet how we channel that point of view into the larger discourse matters. How does understanding our own perspectives potentially help us side-step mental roadblocks and become more open to other possibilities and actions? What are the hidden ruts that we can fall into when discussing the future with others that we're not consciously thinking of and can we learn to avoid them? Can shifting our perspective along the spectrum of potential responses open dialogue and facilitate more inclusive and cooperative conversations as we collectively try to meet the future halfway? To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/XsNmLwX2X_4 For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/42-running-the-systems-discourse-gauntlet

On this episode, literary scholar and psychiatrist Iain McGilchrist joins Nate to discuss the way modern culture teaches and encourages us to use - and not use - the two lobes of our brains. While most functions require the use of both sides of our brains, each side is specially attuned to see and interact with the world in certain ways: the left side acts as a narrow problem solving executor, while the right side is a broadly open contextualizer. What happens when we humans - in aggregate - become imbalanced in our use of these two critical functions? Have we divided the Earth into pieces to be optimized rather than a whole (which we're a part of) to be stewarded? Can we learn to bring these two components of our brains back into balance and in turn heal fractures in ourselves, and ultimately in our communities, Earth, and her ecosystems? About Iain McGilchrist Dr. Iain McGilchrist is a Quondam Fellow of All Souls College, Oxford, an Associate Fellow of Green Templeton College, Oxford, a Fellow of the Royal College of Psychiatrists, a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, and former Consultant Psychiatrist and Clinical Director at the Bethlem Royal & Maudsley Hospital, London. He has been a Research Fellow in neuroimaging at Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore and a Fellow of the Institute of Advanced Studies in Stellenbosch. He has published original articles and research papers in a wide range of publications on topics in literature, philosophy, medicine and psychiatry. He is the author of a number of books, but is best-known for The Master and his Emissary: The Divided Brain and the Making of the Western World (2009); and his book on neuroscience, epistemology and ontology called The Matter with Things: Our Brains, Our Delusions and the Unmaking of the World (2021). Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/dogVQDydRGQ More information, and show notes: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/85-iain-mcgilchrist

On this episode, Nate is joined by well-known French educator Jean-Marc Jancovici to discuss the critical importance of energy to modern economies. Together, Nate and Jean-Marc break down the fundamentals of our complex, growth dependent global economic system. How much of the stereotypical Western lifestyle is centered around access to cheap, surplus fossil energy? What would it mean for societies to lose this stable, cheap and abundant supply - and how would the people who have become used to it react? Will a shift in society's institutions and expectations need to be forced upon us in a time of urgent change or is it possible for nations and societies to anticipate declining energy availability - to actively simplify before we are forced to by circumstances? About Jean-Marc Jancovici Jean-Marc Jancovici is a founding partner of Carbone 4, a Paris-based consultancy and data provider specializing in low-carbon transition, biodiversity impacts, and physical risks of climate change (www.carbone4.com). He is the founder and president of The Shift Project, a Paris based think tank advocating for a low-carbon economy (www.theshiftproject.org). Jean-Marc Jancovici is also an associate professor at Mines ParisTech, a member of the French High Council for the Climate, and (co-)author of 8 books and the website jancovici.com on energy and climate change issues. Jean-Marc Jancovici is a graduate from École polytechnique and Télécom ParisTech. Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/-EHCguJp9eQ Show Notes & Links to Learn More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/84-jean-marc-jancovici

On this Reality Roundtable, Nate is joined by Jon Erickson, Josh Farley, Steve Keen, and Kate Raworth - all of whom are leading thinkers and educators in the field of heterodox economics. In this lively discussion, each guest begins by sharing one fundamental aspect of what conventional economics gets wrong and how it could be improved in our education system. What basic assumptions about humans have led to a misunderstanding of the average person's decision-making? What areas has economics turned a blindspot to as the foundation of our economic systems? Who is finding the models and systems that economists have created useful - and how does economics as a discipline need to change in the face of a lower energy future? In short, what we teach our 18-22 year olds around the world matters - a great deal. About Jon Erickson Jon Erickson is the David Blittersdorf Professor of Sustainability Science & Policy at the University of Vermont. He has published widely on energy and climate change policy, land conservation, watershed planning, environmental public health, and the theory and practice of ecological economics. He advised presidential candidate Bernie Sanders on economics and energy issues. About Josh Farley Joshua Farley is an ecological economist and Professor in Community Development & Applied Economics and Public Administration at the University of Vermont. He is the President of the International Society for Ecological Economics. About Steve Keen Steve Keen is an economist, author of Debunking Economics and The New Economics: A Manifesto. He is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Strategy, Resilience, and Security at University College in London. About Kate Raworth Kate Raworth describes herself as a renegade economist focused on making economics fit for 21st century realities. She is the creator of the Doughnut of social and planetary boundaries, and co-founder of Doughnut Economics Action Lab, based on her best-selling book Doughnut Economics: 7 Ways to Think Like a 21st Century Economist. Kate is a Senior Associate at Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute, where she teaches on the Masters in Environmental Change and Management. She is also Professor of Practice at Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences. She is a member of the Club of Rome and currently serves on the World Health Organisation Council on the Economics of Health for All. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/rr03-erickson-farley-raworth-keen To watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/EC11UQD9q3w

In Part 4 of this Frankly mini-series, Nate concludes the deep dive into the nexus between "just stopping oil" and "just pumping oil" with 10 guideposts which might help us to navigate through the intersection of the Four Horsemen of the 2020s and the shrinking Web of Life….together known as The Great Simplification. From decomplexifying at various scales to a change of consciousness arising from more humans focused on "Inner Tech", there are many ways we as individuals and as a part of the greater society can manage the push and pull of both environment and economic issues while remaining grounded in the reality of energy, technology, behavior, and the economy. For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/41-just-stop-oil-part-4-the-intersection To watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/_C8rR5OR74Y

On this episode, Nate is joined by Doomberg - the anonymous energy/finance analyst team (visually presenting as a talking chicken icon) who uses an energy lens to analyze global trends in the economy, with so far some remarkable accuracy. In this wide ranging discussion, Doomberg and Nate cover the interactions between geopolitics, debt, climate policy, and - of course - energy. How have the narratives created around different types of energy - from renewables to nuclear - affected current policy making around the world? Will the increasingly precarious state of the global debt and monetary system shift the geopolitical landscape? How have increasing global tensions combined with a rise in green energy policy affected nations' desire for energy security - and what does it mean for future policy as we enter a period of decreasing energy availability? About Doomberg In May of 2021, Doomberg was started by a team of professionals experienced in heavy industry, private equity, and the hard sciences to highlight the fundamentals missing from many economic and policy decisions, and it quickly grew to be one of the most widely read finance newsletters on Substack. Doomberg covers topics from energy, finance, to the economy at large, in an attempt to improve society's thinking and clarity to complex problems. Watch on YouTube https://youtu.be/pYkmJOhWtSU Show Notes & More Info https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/83-doomberg

In Part 3 of this Frankly Series, Nate (just after watching the movie Oppenheimer!) breaks down the logic of how we COULD arrive at a post-growth future. Our global situation is complex and not static - IF we somehow are able to shrink the global economic output (which would imply significantly less oil use) we first have to navigate 'the 4 Horsemen of the 2020s'. Nate outlines 10 possible avenues for how this could happen, not as a prescription but as a description of various possible scenarios. The implications of the complexity of our global systems means a path to a world without our current dependence on growth will not be an easy one. Yet understanding these hurdles between our current situation and an eventual post-growth future is essential to shifting the initial conditions of such a global transformation towards 'better-than-the-default' outcomes. How do impending and converging risks narrow our options for ways to move towards a different global system - and can we manage to protect the things that make life worth living? Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/EhOhfRrvYI0 For Show Notes and More: For Show Notes and more: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/40-just-stop-oil-part-3-10-pathways-to-post-growth

On this episode, Nate is joined by climate scientist Kevin Anderson to discuss the possible paths of averting severe climate outcomes and how this is interconnected with equity. As nations plan their climate goals and coordinate with each other, it's clear that extreme actions would be needed from everyone to meet the goal of keeping the global average temperature increase below 2ºC - if this is even possible. At the same time, there are wide disparities in the greenhouse gas emissions between the materially wealthiest and poorest within and across countries. How are past inequities already affecting people in presently climate impacted zones? How can concerned individuals begin incorporating changes and communicating with others in their own lives - and is it even worth it to do so? How can we attempt to balance the equity in standards of living and create rapid reductions in emissions, all while grappling with growing geopolitical tensions, declining energy availability, and the multitude of other converging risks in this impending poly-crisis. About Kevin Anderson: Kevin is professor of Energy and Climate Change at the University of Manchester and visiting professor at the Universities of Uppsala (Sweden) and Bergen (Norway). Formerly he held the position of Zennström professor (in Uppsala) and was director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (UK). Kevin engages widely with governments, industry and civil society, and remains research active with publications in Climate policy, Nature and Science. He has a decade's industrial experience in the petrochemical industry, is a chartered engineer and fellow of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/82-kevin-anderson To watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/aQzdK1uGhWA

In Part 2 of this Frankly Series, Nate breaks down why energy - and specifically oil - is currently the central foundation of our entire modern economic system. There are ecological and energetic laws that apply to all life, including humans and our economies. By accessing a huge surplus of dense carbon energy in the form of fossil sunlight, we've effectively turbo-boosted our economies, populations, and material wealth - but what happens if this fossil abundance were to go away? What are the systemic implications of an economy tethered to growth, tethered to carbon? Is it even possible for us to choose to stop using oil? How do these complex constraints on our global systems affect the options - and most likely outcomes - in a future with declining oil availability and rising climate insecurity? For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/39-just-stop-oil-part-2-oil-is-the-economy To Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/-585aVUNz68

On this episode, Nate is joined by climate and policy scientist Roger Pielke Jr. to discuss the progression of climate research and modeling. The climate activist community is based around projections of what a future might look like given the actions of society - an important tool in the push for urgent climate action. Yet, just like with any other model, the assumptions and parameters can greatly shape the outcomes. How has climate science been shaped by previous models and public perception? How did 2Cº come to be our common climate goal post? Are we anticipating the future within the most likely range of possibilities, or are we polarizing ourselves to the extremes of climate denial and climate doom? About Roger Pielke Jr. Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. is a professor at the University of Colorado where he teaches environmental science and policy. A lifetime scholar with many interests, Roger researches and writes on subjects from understanding the politicization of science to decision making under uncertainty to policy education for scientists in areas such as climate change, disaster mitigation, and world trade. His most recent book, The Rightful Place of Science: Disasters and Climate Change takes a deeper look at the IPCC and climate science and how it is being interpreted in the media. Roger also oversees a popular Substack - The Honest Broker - where he is experimenting with a new approach to research, writing and public engagement. Roger holds degrees in mathematics, public policy and political science, all from the University of Colorado Boulder. For Show Notes and More visit: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/81-roger-pielke To watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/T6Nx4SYZIvQ

In this week's Frankly, Nate expands upon something he finds himself saying more frequently these days; "what scares me the most is…". From the likelihood of nuclear war to how our human in/action harms innocent animals, Nate opens up about his personal list of deepest fears. Contrasting his childhood fear of [harmless] spiders against his current fear of humans' propensity towards [what is now existential] apathy as we face the metacrisis, Nate reminds us how much more complex our lives are in 2023. Can we be courageous and face our own fears head on, rather than feeling paralyzed by them? For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/38-the-7-things-that-scare-me-most Watch on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psWmpCOvvmg&t=2s

On this episode, Nate is joined by recent Stanford graduate and biophysical researcher Taimur Ahmad to discuss energy inequality within and across nations. Taimur offers a unique perspective as someone who has spent years studying the issues of the polycrisis, while also having experience growing up in Pakistan and living in the United States. How does the culture of a nation and its access to energy interrelate to create huge differences in the daily lives of the people who live there? How do the looming implications of climate change and energy depletion impact the relationship between the Global North and the Global South? And how do issues of class, wealth, and 'fictitious capital' interplay with the larger poly-crisis at hand? About Taimur Ahmad Taimur Ahmad is the author of the Fictitious Capital newsletter where he writes about understanding the base layer of the global system: money/finance, energy, and raw materials. He studied economics at Georgetown University in Qatar and recently completed a graduate degree from Stanford University where he focused on energy policy and electricity markets. After working in agricultural development in Pakistan, he worked in the Middle East supporting clients across energy, CP&I, and national development. From these experiences, he realized the importance of reframing contemporary socioeconomic issues in an energy and ecological systems framework. His work is now focused on exploring the intersection of development in the Global South, degrowth/post-growth, MMT, and leftist social theory. To watch this video episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/4hzDKA0aNJk For show notes, and more information: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/80-taimur-ahmad

In this must watch Frankly, Nate illustrates how a reduction in the demand for gasoline will not - as commonly believed - result in a 1:1 reduction in the demand for oil. This is contrary to a widespread perception, which much growth in the Electric Vehicle industry has been based on, about the correlation between a decline in gasoline usage resulting in an overall decline in oil production and CO2 emissions. While a significant portion of oil refining results in gasoline, we need to be aware of modern civilization's deep dependencies on the remaining products that all come from the same barrel of oil. Only then can we understand and plan for feasible pathways to reducing oil production and consumption within the confines of a growth-dependent complex adaptive system. How can movements such as Just Stop Oil better reflect the reality of the current oil production system and our economy? Stay tuned next week when Nate shares 7 potential paths to a less oil-dependent future. A special thank you to Joris van der Schot, John Rowan, Robert Rapier, and Art Berman for helpful input on this video. To Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/H-zYjcsLE_E For Show Notes and More: https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/37-just-stop-oil-part-1-gasoline