The Exchange

Kelly explains why rosy data doesn’t mean we’ve avoided a looming economic downturn. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It’s Day 2 for bank regulators on Capitol Hill. The biggest revelation so far? $100 billion was about to leave Silicon Valley Bank in a single day.The digital age is changing the game for bank runs, and how to prepare for them. We’ll look at how regulators plan to address that.Plus, our market expert insists the inflation downtrend is about to resume. We’ll ask what makes him so sure, and how he’s positioning as a result.And, investors have been piling into treasurys this year. So has the trade become too crowded? One of our guests says “yes,” and will tell us what he’s buying instead. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Bank regulators are in the crosshairs of lawmakers who want answers on Capitol Hill today. How could Silicon Valley and Signature Bank fail so fast? And could it happen again? We’ll bring you the latest developments, and get reaction from one expert who was a financial regulator during a previous crisis. Plus, Morgan Stanley is hailing Block’s Cash App as the place where Millennials & Gen Z do all of their banking. The analyst behind that call joins us to make his case. And, we’ll explain why the dollar losing its special reserve status would actually be a good thing. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

More bank backstops came to light over the weekend, as U.S. officials reportedly considered expanding an emergency bank lending program. First Citizens Bank also swooped in to acquire SVB’s branches & deposits. And the flow of deposits out of regionals and into larger institutions has started to slow, too. Goldman’s Chief Political Economist joins us to discuss all of it. Plus, one strategist says he’s seeing strength in one part of the banking sector, along with European stocks and quality U.S. names. He’ll tell us which ones. And, the 2-day hearing on SVB’s collapse kicks off tomorrow. We’ll talk to House Financial Services Committee Member Jim Himes about which moves he’d like to see on the FDIC insurance front. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

FT’s Gillian Tett says there won’t be a quick resolution to the current bank woes…and the Fed is not to blame. The SEC recently warned Coinbase of securities violations, and one VC says he wants to see that fight make it all the way to the high courts. Plus, as warnings of a credit crunch grow louder, we take a look at the names in the autos and clean energy sectors that can withstand that pain. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Markets are rebounding on hopes that the Fed could be done raising rates. But would that mean they expect more pain ahead in the banking sector? We’ll discuss.Plus, no further rate hikes should be good news for home buyers -- right? Not necessarily. We’ll dig into the divergence between yields & mortgage rates.And, TikTok’s CEO is testifying Capitol Hill, reassuring lawmakers that the app isn’t a national security threat. We have the latest details, and implications for the social media landscape. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kelly’s Power Lunch co-host Tyler Mathisen joins us for a special Fed Edition of The Exchange an hour before Powell and company’s rate decision. Bankrate’s Greg McBride joins us with the real-world impact of the fastest and steepest rate hikes in history and what another increase means for consumers. House Financial Services member, and former community bank examiner, Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer makes the case for regulators to temporarily backstop all bank deposits. Plus, Former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart tells us what it’s like to be in the room when the Fed Committee meets to hash out a rate decision. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The highly-anticipated Fed meeting kicks off today and we’ll get you ready for all three possible rate scenarios--a hike, a pause or a pivot—and tell you how to position now. And the Fed was left in charge of bank oversight after the Great Financial Crisis, but is the US banking system in better shape or is it just as dicey? Wharton Professor Peter Conti-Brown weighs in…and reveals why he’s getting closer and closer to suggesting the Fed should be stripped of that power. Plus, China and Russia releasing a joint statement saying they will “deepen cooperation and trust” between their armed forces, but that they’re NOT forming a military-political alliance. The Atlantic Councils’ Fred Kempe begs to differ. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kelly explains what the biggest risk to the Fed’s balancing act really is. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The latest FOMC meeting is set to kick off tomorrow. Will they hike, or will they pause? Are there even any good options here, as questions on the health of global banking remain?We’ll speak with one economist who says the Fed should “pause” here, and another one who expects a “dovish hike.” They’ll each make their case.Plus, Bitcoin continues to rally, back above $28,000 and surging to a 9-month high. We’ll speak with a leading crypto banker about whether or not this rebound is sustainable.And, according to the Wall Street Journal, regulators had concerns about Silicon Valley Bank as far back as 2015. Greg Zuckerman co-wrote the story, and will join us with the details. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Jefferies’ David Zervos says despite the financial instability, the Fed will continue to tighten. He tells us why the talk of a pivot is “rubbish.” First Republic holds more than $19b worth of muni bonds…is the safety trade about to be shaken up amid the bank stress? Plus, more than 100m options contracts expire today, and while bearish signals are cropping up, there are still pockets of bullishness. Susquehanna’s Chris Murphy tells us where traders are seeing buying opportunities. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The European Central Bank going full steam ahead despite global banking turmoil….so did the ECB just set the tone for the Fed next week? We look at what to expect and how it may impact the economy and the markets. Plus, contagion from the banks *TO* the housing market would turn the last crisis on its head, but that’s exactly what could happen here. We’ll explain why a failure at First Republic could be felt throughout the housing industry. And speaking of First Republic…David Faber reporting that a group of financial institutions is in talks to give the battered regional bank a major capital infusion. We have the breakdown of who is involved and how much money is being talked about. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Another day of banking concerns is dragging down markets. Credit Suisse appears to be the latest bank on the brink, as the Saudi National Bank says it won’t provide it any more capital.Investors here at home are hoping U.S. financials aren’t exposed to any counterparty risks here. We’ll tell you all you need to know, including how to protect your portfolio here. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Wall Street is reeling from the bank collapses we’ve seen over the past week, with many now calling for the Fed to pause rate hikes as a result.But former NEC Director Lawrence Lindsey warns that is the wrong response to what happened here. He’ll join us to make his case.Plus, the CEO of Charles Schwab will join us exclusively to defend his banking strategy, and explain why Schwab won’t suffer a similar fate to Silicon Valley Bank.And, plunging yields likely mean lower mortgage rates to come. Analyst Stephen Kim will join us with the housing stocks that could be a “buy” if rates stay lower. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Both SVB & Signature Bank are now out of business, while First Republic has secured funding from J.P. Morgan & The Fed. A major issue has been the safety of accounts over the $250,000 FDIC cap. But President Biden had some encouraging words this morning, after the government announced a new facility that will offer 1-year loans to banks and pay them par for collateral like treasuries & mortgages to stem the tide. But big questions remain. Is there another shoe to drop in the banking sector? Should the government have stepped in? And could the Fed now pause or pivot as a result of this? We’ll debate, and tell you all you need to know. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Regulators just shut down Silicon Valley Bank, also known as ‘SVB Financial,’ in the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. Shares were halted all day long as the bank’s capital raise reportedly failed. And yet because of the strong jobs report this morning, some folks are still saying the Fed should hike by another half point at its next meeting in 10 days. But should they actually be slamming the brakes?We’ve got full team coverage of all that you need to know, and will explain what’s at stake for markets, the economy and your money. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Banks under pressure…two stocks in particular making news today. It’s for different reasons, but both highlighting concerns about the banking system. We have the names, and why our guest says you should buy them regardless. Plus, President Biden unveils his budget plan. We look at what’s part of it, and how it sets the stage for a debt ceiling showdown. And, he has unique insight into the labor market. As always, on the eve of the big report, Recruiter.com CEO Evan Sohn joins us with the trends he’s seeing, and what we should expect in the jobs number tomorrow. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It’s Day 2 on Capitol Hill for Jerome Powell, with more of the same message: the data will determine what the Fed does next.Mohamed El-Erian says what comes next could very well be a Fed-made recession. Is he right? We’ll debate.Plus, rising rates & a lack of inventory are resulting in stubbornly-high home prices. We’ll look at new data suggesting it’s not getting any better.And, KBW warns a “soft landing” is now off the table. Their analyst will join us with names in banking, life insurance & REITs that are most exposed. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell just wrapped up his semi-annual testimony before the Senate baking committee, saying the Fed will “stay the course until the job is done.”That could include higher interest rates than previously anticipated, and a quicker pace of hikes. And that has stocks selling off today. We’ll tell you all you need to know. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Stocks are higher, even as the yield curve flashes a worsening recession warning. Are investors growing complacent? Will Jerome Powell address it on Capitol Hill?It’s a big week for the markets & the economy, and we’ll get you ready for it with how to be positioned for success.Plus, the White House is expected to crack down further on investments in China, but details are scant. So should investors buy or bail? We’ll debate.And, Amazon has underperformed the QQQs by 50% since its pandemic peak. Amid growing headwinds, how should you trade the stock? We’ll have a bull vs. bear debate. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Everyone’s talking about whether or not the Fed needs to take interest rates to 6% now. But what if even that number is too low?According to the “Taylor Rule,” rates should be headed towards 10%. Is that really feasible? We’ll ask “Taylor Rule” creator John Taylor himself.Plus, office REITs have been crushed by rising rates and slowing demand. But there’s one better positioned than the rest. We’ll reveal the name.And, Kyle Bass is calling Xi Jinping’s latest moves “installing a war cabinet.” So should you stay away from investing in China? We’ll debate. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kelly explains why the traditional portfolio might not survive in this economic environment. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Is the Fed making decisions based on increasingly imprecise jobs data? One of our guests says “yes.” We’ll look at the issues, and potential fallout for markets & the economy.Plus, Europe has a major inflation problem. Experts have warned to stay away, but that’s not stopping our guests from investing there. They’ll tell us where they see opportunity.And, Matt Higgins of RSE Ventures joins us in studio to talk about his VC investments, his new book, and whether Momofuku would ever go public. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Tesla holding its investor day, but could Tesla’s current competitive advantage become its weakness? The long-time best-performer on the S&P citing forex headwinds in its Q4…we’ve got some names that hold up better during dollar dominance. Plus, 15 ways to play AI from Bank of America. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kelly explains why the Fed could continue tightening much, more more. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

One of the few issues with bipartisan support in congress is heading for prime. Tonight will mark the first hearing from the House Select Committee on strategic competition between the U.S & China.We’ll explain the key national security concerns at stake, and why the chief economist of the China beige book says these are baby steps in solving our problems.Plus, China’s reopening is giving stocks in that region a boost, and sparking global growth hopes. But MKM’s Michael Darda disagrees. He’ll join us to explain why he’s skeptical on China, and Europe too.And, $400 billion in student loan debt is in the crosshairs of the Supreme Court, with the first steps toward loan forgiveness now underway. We’ve got the latest details. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kelly explains why the small business boom may be coming to an end, and what that means for the broader economy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Do rates actually matter to the stock matter anymore? One of our guests says “yes,” and that yields need to stop rising to trigger a new bull market.But our own Michael Santoli says it doesn’t quite work like that. He’ll join us to explain why, and make his case.Plus, why have markets and the economy held up so well in spite of these massive Fed hikes? David Zervos of Jefferies has a theory on that. Here’s a hint: it equals about 40% of GDP. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Inflation was trending lower…until today. So will the Fed now shift to full ‘attack mode?’ We’ll explore all the scenarios, and what they mean for markets & the economy.Plus, what would ‘attack mode’ do to housing? New home sales just hit their highest level in nearly a year, but could the Fed kill that momentum? We’ll discuss.And, Wall Street has been loving AI stocks lately. But how do you separate real promise from hype? We’ll look at some not-so-obvious ways to play AI technology. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It’s just hawks and more hawks at the Fed now…so how much higher will rates go? How fast will the Fed get there? And what does it mean for the markets? We’ll debate.Plus, with the reopening underway, is now the time to invest in China? Foreign policy experts and investors disagree. We’ll speak to one long-time China watcher who really surprised us the last time he was on the show. And, natural gas prices have plunged since September. We look at what’s driving the declines and when consumers could see lower heating bills. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard just reiterated his call to hike rates north of 5% to beat inflation. How many other Fed officials agree? We’ll set you up for Fed minutes due out shortly, which could give us a clue.Plus, one expert says high inflation is leading some companies to suffer from “money illusion”…and it’s one reason why layoffs haven’t hit just yet. We’ll look at what that means for markets.And, shares of Wingstop are soaring nearly 10% after earnings. We’ll talk to the CEO about the disinflation he’s seeing. And we’ll also hear from the Travel + Leisure CEO about the high demand he’s still seeing, too. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kelly explains why Covid-era stimulus spending is still effecting consumers & the economy today. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Walmart & Home Depot have both given disappointing outlooks for the year. Walmart’s CFO warns the consumer is “very pressured.” We’ll speak with an expert who says there will be no “landing” for the economy until there’s a hard landing.Plus, why has none of this been bad news for the stock market today? We’ll speak with an expert who insists the 2023 rally can continue, despite today’s sell-off. He’ll answer some viewer questions, too.And, it’s all about rates, retail and risk-on in a fresh edition of ‘Earnings Exchange.’ We’ll give you the action, the story and the trade in TJX Companies, Toll Brothers & Coinbase ahead of results. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kelly explains why the recent market rally shouldn’t be taken lightly. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kelly explains why just because it’s taking a while, doesn’t mean a recession is off the table. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kelly digs into the details of the latest inflation report. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kelly highlights how data continues to hold up relatively well, despite the Fed’s massive tightening strategy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Is a half point rate hike now in play? Two Fed officials are making the case for it. But one of our guests says things aren’t as strong as they seem. He’ll join us to explain where he sees the Fed heading next. Plus, our market expert says if you think the recent rally is premature…it’s not! He says it all makes perfect sense, and he’ll join us to explain why & what he’s buying here. And, retail heavyweights like Walmart and Home Depot are set to report earnings next week. We’ll look at 4 names in the space to “shop or drop” ahead of results. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kelly highlights some encouraging things happening in the economy in the long-term. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Inflation is still hot. Labor is still tight. Housing is firmer than expected, and manufacturing is doing worse. The markets are taking a breather as a result. So where do we go from here? We’ll debate.Plus, the options market is flashing a major warning sign. Are we heading for “Volamageddon 2.0”? We’ll look at what it is, and whether it really matters to equity markets.And, rates are jumping for everything from auto loans to credit cards, just as card balances reach a post-pandemic high. How much longer is this sustainable? We’ll explore. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The latest CPI print showed inflation is still high, and yet new retail sales numbers show consumer spending is still strong! Is the U.S. consumer simply unflappable? We’ll debate.Plus, travel is one area of the economy still going strong. Choice Hotels just delivered a blockbuster report and guidance. The CEO will join us live with key consumer trends he’s seeing.And, 3 big momentum stocks are set to report results tonight. We’ll give you the action, the story and the trade in Roku, Shopify & Zillow in ‘Earnings Exchange.’ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Stocks are under pressure after today’s hotter-than-expected CPI print. A 5-star fund manager will join us to reveal his “tensions” trade, and names that could be resilient in the face of sticky inflation.Plus, we’ll do a deep dive into the CPI report, including what it means for the Fed’s tightening strategy, the path of the economy and your money.And, we’re not done with Earnings Season just yet. We’ll give you the action, the story and the trade in Airbnb, Taylor Morrison Home & Generac ahead of results on deck. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Stocks are shaking off their CPI jitters, with the big inflation report due out before the bell tomorrow morning. Will it show inflation re-accelerating, or give the Fed some breathing room? We’ll explore what’s at stake for your portfolio.Plus, we’ve now reached 4 unidentified objects shot down from our skies in 9 days. We’ll look at the companies involved in this unprecedented defense response.And, is the spring selling season already off to a decent start for real estate? We’ll dive into the trends on the ground, and the data pointing to ‘yes.’ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Don’t underestimate the American consumer. Sentiment continues to improve, and one of our experts sees continued resiliency despite rising rates. She’ll reveal the names she’s buying because of it.Plus, the great question for this Spring is: how will the housing market fare? We’ll drill down on 3 keys area of real estate, and what they mean for prices, inflation and housing stocks.And, we’re counting down to the big game this Sunday. We have a special ‘3 Buys & A Bail’ with the companies set to spend big on ads this year, and who could win the night. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The 2/10 yield curve is the most-inverted it’s been in 40 years, but the jobs market is incredibly strong…we dig into what the data disconnect means for the markets. Disney reveling its restructuring plan in its earnings release, prompting activist Nelson Peltz to declare “the proxy fight is over.” David Faber interviewed Disney CEO Bob Iger about those plans and joins us to discuss the future of the media giant. Plus, lithium gets most of the attention when it comes to EV batteries, but don’t sleep on the so-called MIFTs; they could be poised for a breakout. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Stocks are off to a hot start in 2023, and that has one expert saying it’s “time to play offense.” But how long can that strategy work when the economy is slowing? We’ll ask.Plus, all eye are on Disney ahead of its earnings tonight. What’s the plan now that Bob Iger is back at the helm? We’ll ask one of the biggest bulls on the street what he wants to hear.And, on a day where investors are giving Google’s AI efforts a poor grade, one expert claims the technology can actually help kids more than hurt when it comes to education. He’ll join us to explain why. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kelly explains why you can’t have higher wages and rising corporate profits in this economy. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Federal Reserve Chair just finished his live speech at the Economic Club of Washington, where he confirmed disinflationary process has begun. We’ll recap all the major points, and what they mean for you & your money.Plus, Microsoft’s big A.I. is now underway. CEO says A.I. is going to reshape everything in the software space. We’ll discuss what’s at stake for the company and the future of big tech. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Last week’s smaller rate hike from the Federal Reserve already didn’t sit well with former Fed Governor Lawrence Lindsey. And then came the shockingly good jobs report.Lindsey now says Jerome Powell needs to give the market a “slap” – and not just a warning. He’ll join us to make his case, as we gear up to hear from Powell again tomorrow.Plus, tensions between the U.S. and China are rising, after a suspected “spy balloon” floated across the country, leading to a cancelled diplomatic meeting. We’ll look at the potential economic fallout.And, we’ll tell you all you need to know about Pinterest, BP and Royal Caribbean ahead of results on deck in a fresh edition of “Earnings Exchange,” as worries about corporate profit margins grow. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We just got a blockbuster jobs report, and markets are taking it in stride. So is “good news” truly good news now? Or could the Fed apply a bigger brake and put a stop to the 2023 rally? We’ll debate.Plus, Apple just reported its biggest quarterly revenue decline since 2016. And CEO Tim Cook says he sees more pain ahead. So why is one of our guests still bullish? He’ll join us to make his case.And, media stocks have been on fire so far this year. And the names leading the pack may just surprise you. We’ll look at what’s behind the gains, and whether they can keep rallying from here. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.