Monday - February 23, 2026
Supreme Court Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs: Market Fallout, Workarounds, and Refunds
The Dividend Cafe · The Bahnsen Group
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Show Notes
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40qp47X
Snowed in New York recording opens with a sharp selloff (Dow -822; S&P -1%+; Nasdaq -1.1%). Weakness tied more to AI valuation and pressure in tech and financials than tariffs. The 10-year yield fell to ~4.03%; defensives led.
AI capex for 2026 is pegged at $650B across five firms. Nvidia’s $30B OpenAI investment is expected to cycle back via chip orders.
The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that IEEPA cannot be used to impose tariffs; Congress retains tariff authority. Refund mechanics remain unclear.
Possible alternatives include Section 122 (150-day limit) and the more complex 301 and 232 routes. Strategas estimates a net $70B tariff reduction even if some measures return.
Refunds could total $120–130B, potentially stimulative, though implementation may be uneven. July’s USMCA review approaches amid improving U.S.–Mexico ties and rising U.S.–Canada tensions.
Q4 GDP was 1.4%; 2025 growth seen at 2.2% vs. 2.8% in 2024. Housing is softening, with markets pricing in 2–3 Fed cuts toward ~3%.
00:00 Snowed In Intro
01:15 Market Selloff Snapshot
03:24 AI Capex Reality Check
04:52 Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
06:33 Section 122 Workaround
08:06 Other Tariff Pathways
09:40 Economic Impact Estimates
10:44 Refunds and USMCA Fallout
12:56 GDP Housing and Fed Cuts
15:25 Geopolitics and Wrap Up
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com