The Dividend Cafe

This episode delves into the significance and influence of the word 'because'. The discussion explores its role in communication, persuasion, and decision-making processes, highlighting how the simple word can have a powerful effect in various contexts. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Dividend Cafe: June 11 Market Commentary and Economic Update In this episode of Dividend Cafe, we cover the market's performance on June 11th, noting that despite a slight overall decline, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted gains, while Treasury yields fell due to a strong auction of two-year notes. We also discuss the uptick in the Small Business Optimism Index, reflecting ongoing economic concerns such as interest rates and potential policy changes. Key upcoming events include a core CPI number and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Market Overview and Performance 00:44 Treasury Auction and Interest Rates 01:09 Small Business Optimism Index 02:04 Upcoming Economic Data Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4esr4m6 We cover a wide range of market and economic updates. From today's market action, bond market volatility, sector performance, and the top heaviness of the S&P 500, to significant geopolitical events and public policy issues. Also discussed are the implications of the Texas Stock Exchange movement, the recent jobs report, and trends in air travel. The episode concludes with insights into the private versus public company landscape and listener questions. 00:00 Market Overview 01:32 Bond Market Insights 02:26 Sector Performance 03:02 Top Heaviness in the S&P 500 05:35 Geopolitical Events 06:42 Texas Stock Exchange Movement 08:13 Jobs Report 09:14 Air Travel Trends 10:07 Commercial Real Estate Loans 11:21 Federal Reserve's Policies 13:00 Upstream Energy Stock Performance 13:34 Laws of Pessimism 15:04 Decline in Publicly Listed Companies Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Xd1Npy In this episode of Dividend Cafe, David dives into the top-heavy nature of the current market, focusing on valuations, risk exposures, and the weightings of major stocks. The episode further explores NVIDIA's staggering impact on the market, providing data points and historical context. It also discusses the broader economic scenarios, including insights about China, market volatility, and sector performances. 00:00 Introduction 00:46 Market Valuations and Risks 04:27 NVIDIA's Market Impact 09:29 China's Economic Scenario 11:14 Market Volatility and Predictions 12:46 Sector Yield Insights 13:21 Conclusion and Quote of the Week Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Summary and Economic Insights In this episode of Dividend Cafe, the day saw minor movements in the trading markets with the Dow closing up 78 points, while the S&P and Nasdaq remained nearly unchanged. The 10-year yield also remained stable. Significant economic updates included the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims were slightly higher than expected but still reflect healthy employment numbers. Productivity and trade deficit data showed slight improvements. Additionally, TSA travel levels for 2024 indicated strong economic activity. The discussion also touched on the preference for goal-oriented benchmarks over traditional market benchmarks. Listeners were reminded about the upcoming non-farm payroll data and the long-form Dividend Cafe newsletter set to release the following day. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:23 European Central Bank and Interest Rates 01:03 US Economic Indicators 01:41 Travel Trends and Economic Activity 02:30 Benchmarking Dividend Portfolios 03:17 Upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls Report 03:21 Conclusion and Sign-Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Exploring the Dynamics of the Dow This episode delves into the intricacies of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly referred to as the Dow. The show offers insight into its components, historical significance, how it is calculated, and its role as an economic indicator. Listeners will learn about the major influences on the Dow's movements, its impact on market trends, and why it is closely watched by investors and analysts. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Daily Market Recap and Economic Insights - Dividend Cafe In today's daily recap on Dividend Cafe, David Bahnsen discusses the market performance with the Dow closing up 140 points, modest gains in the S&P and NASDAQ, and a continued bond market rally reflected in the 10-year yield drop to 4.33%. Real estate and consumer staples sectors led the day with about 1% gains, while materials and energy sectors saw declines. Oil prices decreased by $1.30 a barrel. The episode also touches on the JOLTS data indicating a drop in job openings and speculates that the labor market data will give the Fed a potential reason to loosen policy by the year's end. David also encourages viewers to check out ongoing questions on DividendCafe.com and concludes with a positive outlook for most asset classes in May. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:12 Daily Market Recap 00:41 Bond Market Rally 01:19 Sector Performance Overview 01:39 Oil Prices and Economic Data 01:54 Labor Market Insights 02:45 Fed's Potential Moves 02:59 Closing Thoughts and Resources 03:54 Legal and Investment Disclaimers Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3X5cdHS Market Movements and Consumer Behavior Insights - The Monday Dividend Cafe In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, David provides a detailed commentary on recent market activities, including significant volatility with a nearly 500-point swing in the Dow. Major sectors are discussed, with technology and healthcare leading gains while energy experiences a sharp decline. Insights into OPEC Plus decisions on production cuts and the impact on oil prices are covered. The narrative also dives into consumer spending habits, the influence of media on market perceptions, and considerations on housing affordability linked to mortgage rates. The episode concludes with highlights on economic indicators, including the performance of utilities, cell phone usage as a proxy for economic activity, and anticipated shifts in Federal Reserve policy on interest rates. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:15 Market Recap: A Volatile Day 00:54 Sector Performance Highlights 01:20 Energy Sector and OPEC+ Update 08:43 Consumer Behavior Insights 11:55 Economic Indicators and Analysis 18:14 Against Doomsdayism: The Speed of Bad News 19:42 Conclusion and Upcoming Reports Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3R7M9Io Reflecting on 50 Years of Market and Personal Milestones In this special edition of the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary, David reflects on 50 years of market and economic history coinciding with his 50th birthday. This episode dives into significant economic events, market trends, and personal anecdotes, from the S&P 500’s journey from 89 points at David's birth to its massive growth over the decades. David shares insights from his personal and professional life, highlighting lessons learned and projecting forward for the next 50 years. Tune in for historical retrospection and wisdom on long-term investing and human ingenuity. 00:00 Introduction to This Week's Dividend Cafe 01:02 Reflecting on 50 Years of Investing 01:29 Personal Milestones and Market Parallels 06:15 Economic Challenges and Lessons from the 1970s 08:18 The Booming 1980s and Financial Innovations 12:05 The Digital Revolution and Market Zeal of the 1990s 14:39 Navigating the 2000s: Personal and Professional Growth 16:06 The Financial Crisis and Its Lasting Impact 17:35 Modern Market Dynamics and Future Outlook 21:24 The Power of Dividends and Long-Term Investing 24:37 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Recap and Economic Indicators for May 8th, 2023 In this episode of the Dividend Cafe, we delve into the recent market events with a focus on the downward trend experienced across major indices such as the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P. The Dow took a significant hit, largely due to an earnings disappointment from a major software company. The discussion includes updated GDP figures for Q1, showing a decline to 1.3%, and initial jobless claims which remain strong at 219,000. We also address the notable drop in pending home sales, attributed to continuing high mortgage rates. Additionally, there's a segment about the presence of international stock positions in the dividend portfolio and the relevance of foreign tax withholding. As always, the episode concludes with an invitation for listeners to reach out with their questions. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:18 Market Recap: A Down Day 01:00 Economic Indicators Update 01:43 Housing Market Insights 02:24 International Stock Positions 03:12 Conclusion and Sign-Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Welcome to the Dividend Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio and economic understanding. On May 29th, the markets saw a significant downturn, with a decrease of over 400 points, attributed to a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve and the release of the Fed's Beige Book indicating modest economic expansion. The episode also discusses Q1 earnings, with an 8% beat and a notable future outlook, emphasizing the importance of selective portfolio management. For 2024, an 11% earnings increase is expected. Listen for detailed market insights and forecasts. 00:19 Market Overview: May 29th 00:39 Federal Reserve and Economic Insights 01:42 Earnings and Company Performance 02:26 Future Earnings Projections 02:59 Valuation and Portfolio Strategy 03:11 Closing Remarks and Contact Information 03:23 Disclaimer and Legal Information Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3KhwHpc A special Tuesday edition owing to the Memorial Day holiday. The podcast covers a range of topics starting with a market recap, touching on the industrial and healthcare sectors, and explaining the unusual trading patterns in the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Financial intricacies such as market breadth and credit spreads are discussed, along with the curious valuation metrics of various sectors. The housing market trends, including mortgage rates and foreclosure statistics, are highlighted. Speculations on future Fed rate cuts are discussed, emphasizing the likelihood of cuts being delayed until after the presidential election. David also explains the firm's approach to utilizing outside money managers for specific asset classes. The episode wraps up with a preview of upcoming segments and content. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UYlHC2 David discusses recent market volatility, highlighting large fluctuations in the Dow over the past few months. He emphasizes the importance of avoiding high-risk trades and the hazards of following market trends blindly. The speaker delves into various investor sentiment indicators, such as credit spreads and the VIX index, suggesting a current market frothiness. The main focus is on the value of diversification, both across asset classes and within them, to mitigate risk. He contrasts widespread index investing with a more concentrated approach that prioritizes dividend growth stocks. The host underscores the importance of conviction over quantity in constructing a portfolio, advocating for a strategy rooted in fundamental investment logic rather than crowd-following. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, the discussion revolves around a significant downturn in the market with the Dow closing over 600 points lower. However, some sectors, especially those related to AI technology, showed positive performance due to favorable earnings results. The episode delves into recent economic indicators, highlighting PMI data showing the economy's accelerated growth in May, with manufacturing and services sectors posting gains. Despite positive economic indicators, concerns remain regarding potential Federal Reserve actions on interest rates. The episode also covers lower-than-expected initial jobless claims and a decline in new home sales, attributed to higher interest rates. A Q&A session discussed dealing with large deficits and government debt, advocating for supply-side economic policies to stimulate growth without excessively raising taxes or increasing regulation. The Bonson Group provided these insights, emphasizing that their advice does not constitute a solicitation for securities and should not replace professional tax or legal consultation. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe! 00:19 Market Overview: A Down Day in the Markets 00:53 Economic Indicators: PMI Data and Jobless Claims 01:57 Housing Market Insights: New Home Sales Data 02:42 Fiscal Policy Discussion: Deficits, Taxes, and Economic Growth 03:49 Closing Remarks and Contact Information 03:59 Legal and Advisory Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This episode of Dividend Cafe offers a commentary on the recent market downturn, noting a 201 point drop in the Dow and a slight rise in volatility. The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes are discussed, revealing some disappointment in inflation data but maintaining a medium-term 2 percent inflation target. The episode also covers lower than expected April existing home sales, likely due to tight housing inventory and higher rates, yet notes a 5.7 percent year-over-year price increase. UK inflation rose slightly more than expected to 2.3%, attributed to weaker economic fundamentals compared to the US. China's potential increase in tariffs on large autos from the US and Europe is mentioned, seen as a tit-for-tat move against the Biden administration's tariff raises. Additionally, the episode previews economic indicators to be released the following day, including jobless claims and PMI numbers. The Bonson Group's role as investment professionals and the disclaimer regarding investment risks and advice conclude the commentary. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:18 Market Movements and Federal Reserve Insights 01:16 Housing Market Dynamics 02:10 Global Economic Indicators: UK Inflation and China's Tariff Strategy 02:48 Looking Ahead: Economic Calendar and Closing Thoughts 03:10 Disclaimer and Professional Advice Notice Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This episode of Dividend Cafe provides a weekly market commentary with a focus on dividends and economic insights. On May 21, the markets saw a slight increase despite the lack of major economic news, with the Dow up by 66 points and both NASDAQ and S&P 500 up by about a quarter of a point. Interest rates were slightly down, with the 10-year treasury dropping three basis points. Fed officials, including Waller, shared diverse views on the economy, generally indicating a cautious approach towards changing interest rates. The episode also discusses the current low market volatility, compares GDP in aggregate versus per capita with Japan as a case study, and looks ahead to the FOMC meeting minutes and existing home sales reports. Lastly, it emphasizes the importance of not becoming complacent due to current positive market conditions. 00:00 Introduction to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Market Overview: A Quiet Summer Day 00:45 Federal Reserve Speakers and Interest Rate Insights 01:22 Market Volatility and Economic Indicators 02:39 GDP Insights and Global Economic Trends 03:21 Looking Ahead: FOMC Meeting and Home Sales 03:34 Closing Remarks and Compliance Information Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3ypYWzx We recap market activity on Monday, May 20th. The Dow started positively but lost momentum, closing down 196 points. The S&P and NASDAQ saw modest gains. China's market performance may be indicating an upward trend. Additionally, there was news about a helicopter crash in Iran, potential Middle Eastern tensions, and upcoming OPEC meetings. There are possible changes in capital reserve requirements for U.S. banks, the employee retention tax credit, increased tariffs on China, and the impact of these policies. We look at homeowners and renters in the U.S. Lastly, insights into recent Fed speeches and their stance on inflation and rate adjustments Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3QOLsna The second quarter of 2024 hit its midpoint this week, and markets have continued with what has been a big rally in the month of May. As earnings season has now concluded and the Fed is sidelined for a bit, we might expect things to chill out for a bit, but markets never sleep, so who knows. But this week’s Dividend Cafe does give you a pretty good look at the yield curve and what it predicts (or doesn’t), along with a cogent expectation for inflation, some fascinating things Japan can teach us (or not), some campaign questions for Team Biden, and then ultimately – a real behavioral lesson that may just make or break your success as an investor. So yes, the opportunity inside this week’s Dividend Cafe is serious. Let’s jump in! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Update and Economic Indicators: A Snapshot In this episode of Dividend Cafe, recorded on Thursday, May 16th, the host provides a summary of the day's market activity, noting a flat day in the markets with a brief touch on 40,000 points on the Dow. Despite a mild decline by the close, bond yields rose slightly, and recent economic indicators including the CPI data, Philly fed and empire state manufacturing indexes, and industrial production, suggest a steady, if not expanding, economy. Brian also points out the positive jobless claims data and the rebound in new home constructions as signs of economic health. Additionally, an increase in real personal income and a 35% rise in the S&P 500 since the pre-pandemic period are highlighted as indicators that do not point towards an immediate recession. The episode concludes with a look forward to the next Dividend Cafe installment and wishes for a good weekend. 00:02 Market Overview: A Flat Yet Positive Day 00:38 Manufacturing and Economic Indicators: Holding Steady 01:05 Employment and Income: Signs of Economic Health 02:25 Housing Market and Inflation: A Positive Outlook 03:05 Closing Thoughts and Look Ahead Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Market Update: A Positive Turn with Cooler Inflation Numbers This episode of Dividend Cafe provides a financial market update for Wednesday, May 15th, marking a positive trading day with the Dow up by 349 points and a rally in bonds. The episode highlights a cooler than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April at 0.3%, indicating a positive trend in inflation rates. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed mixed signals with March's deflationary revision and a hotter April. These figures suggest a potential 2.8% year-over-year Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is crucial for Federal Reserve considerations. Despite lower than expected retail sales and a contractionary Empire Manufacturing Survey, the episode suggests these are potentially positive signs for the Fed to lower interest rates. 00:19 Inflation and Economic Indicators Update 01:17 Retail Sales and Manufacturing Insights 01:54 Closing Thoughts and Tomorrow's Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A daily summary of key market data and economic nuggets. Reach out with questions anytime! [email protected]. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3UXaYJe Markets opened to the upside and then spent the first half of the day declining (but not by much) and the second half of the day around that declined spot. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4afqiVW As I finish up this writing Friday morning the Dow is tracking for its eight consecutive day in positive territory (I have little doubt that my mere typing of that sentence likely jinxed it). The market reversal from April into May can be credited to a combination of: Renewed acknowledgment that regardless of when the Fed begins cutting rates they have made it reasonably clear they are done hiking rates, and Marginally improved financial markets liquidity in the present tense and with a vision to the future around the tapering of quantitative tightening, and A good fundamental backdrop for corporate profits with another earnings season in the books reflective of enduring margins, reasonable forward guidance, and revenue growth in line with expectations It is a bad time to be a market timer. But I don’t think anyone can even time when it is a good time to be a market timer, so maybe I am just repeating myself over and over. Anyways, we know what time it is at The Bahnsen Group … … and it is time to jump into the Dividend Cafe. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A daily summary of key market data and economic nuggets. Reach out with questions anytime! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A daily summary of key market data and economic nuggets. Reach out with questions anytime! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/44ut20E The jobs report Friday was the talk of the town, with 175,000 new jobs being created in April, well below the 240,000 estimate. It was the government sector that most missed expectations, with the private sector representing 167,000 of the new jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. Wages were only up +0.1% on the month and are now up +3.9% year-over-year. There is a real irony in how this gets digested, because some say, “oh no, wage growth lower than we want is bad” and others say “yay, too much wage growth creates a wage-price inflation spiral so this is good to see as a disinflationary sign. I think both camps have it wrong. 29 million of the roughly 158 million people employed in the United States works for a S&P 500 company (18% or so). Some I have shared this with expressed surprise it wasn’t higher, and some were shocked it was so high. Data is in the eye of the beholder, I guess. The bottom 50% of health care spenders account for a grand total of 3% of total health care costs (less than $390 per year). The top 5%, on the other hand, account for 51% of all health care spending. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bjQ9x6 “Sell in May and go away” became an adage some people love to say in our business, and I really have no idea where it came from. Whenever people ask me if we follow that adage I reply the same as I do about any other “adage” – things that are made up to offer a cute rhyme may not necessarily be the best way to formulate an investment policy. Some months markets go down. Some months really good investment plans see the holdings in a portfolio increase in price, and other times decrease in price, The investment plan is not better or worse in some months than the others – it is all part of the plan presumably put together. Various calendar correlations, almanac tidbits, and nursery rhyme poetry are not investment strategies. They are actually not even good at understanding correlations, let alone causations, as most of these things on their own merits and claims are merely 50/50 propositions. But what is a real investable philosophy is what you can find in the pages of Dividend Cafe. And for a discussion of all those things and more, we start … now … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dd0xsl Economic Front The big economic news last week was the 1.6% annualized real GDP growth for Q1 when +2.5% had been expected. The 3.4% of Q4 (again, all these numbers are annualized, which is just how they get discussed) was not going to repeat itself, but 1.6% vs. 2.5% projected and 2.7% in the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model was a big step down. The positive side is that manufacturing appears to be picking up, New Orders are on the rise, and low inventories now mean more manufacturing later. Net exports were the biggest drag (-0.9%), and, as is almost always the case, consumption was the largest contributor (+1.7%). Capex contributed just +0.4%. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) was up +2.7% year-over-year last month, matching expectations. Personal Income rose +0.5% in March, in line with expectations. 54% of people worked at firms with less than 500 employees in 1980. That number is just over 46% now. The fertility rate in the U.S. dropped to 1.62 last year, the lowest on record. Our fertility rate has been below the 2.1 replacement level for 17 years now. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/49UmDwH The first thing I will say is that by popular demand, we will be adding back the “What’s on David’s Mind” to the Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday email blasts starting next week for Dividend Cafe subscribers (and on some days, “What’s on Brian’s Mind”). By and large, the feedback to the newly revamped Dividend Cafe has been overwhelmingly positive, and a few knobs turned on the daily programming will continue to fine-tune. Thank you all for your feedback; we are very excited to have one property, one brand, and one medium to deliver the TBG thought leadership to you. This week we are going to look at the history of yields from the market today, the history of market drawdowns, the state of commodities, the future of national debt, some global debt to avoid, expectations for Chinese economic growth, the energy sector, and finally, some Presidential conspiracy theories. That’s a lot to pack into one Friday. No one said this would be easy; we only said it would be fun. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

A daily summary of key market data and economic nuggets. Reach out with questions anytime! Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3wbacib Welcome to the new and improved Dividend Cafe. What you see today will be a weekly Dividend Cafe each and every Monday from yours truly, complete with a podcast and video. It has come for years now on Monday, once under the umbrella of “COVID & Markets” and after that under “The DC Today.” We are simply incubating it under Dividend Cafe, so there is just one list, one website, and one brand behind it all. You will note on the home page of Dividend Cafe that we are running a daily market recap that will include closing data every day along with key economic indicators. Additionally, we will be running an Ask TBG on that home page, where questions will be answered every day. Every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, that market recap with the podcast and an Ask TBG will be emailed to subscribers., And then Friday, the same weekly Dividend Cafe article we have always done (see next paragraph) will go, per usual. So check out the new Dividend Cafe, all its bells and whistles, and share feedback with us any time! The Friday Dividend Cafe looked at the subject of contrarian investing, the state of the dollar, and a few thoughts on oil and politics, and the comedy of bitcoin as a “flight to safety” this last Friday. The written version is here (my favorite), the video is here, and the podcast is here. Into the second quarter of 2024, it may be a good time to review our outlook entering 2024 and major themes as we continue through the year. Off we go … Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JLnpSl It has been an interesting week in the market, but as you will see in the first paragraph below it may seem like nothing happened whatsoever. That is more common than people think. Today we visit the state of the U.S. dollar, the “safe haven” of bitcoin, the politics of oil, the nature of contrarian investing, and more. Just a lot of easy-bite tidbits to edify you this beautiful spring weekend. And before I remind you that a new and improved Dividend Cafe is coming any day, jump on in, to this Dividend Cafe! Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3w8tK6R Somewhat of a repeat of yesterdays market action with a positive morning failing to hold momentum and falling off into the close in more consolidation in markets around rates. We did eek out a small gain on the Dow, but the SP500 closed slightly lower for the fifth session in a row. The 2-YR Treasury is back to YTD highs at just under 5% and 10-YR was up 5 bps today to 4.63%. For what was on the docket today in the economic calendar, mostly good news. Jobless claims, existing home sales and manufacturing data all modestly ahead of expectations, but it just wasn’t enough to keep the momentum on the day. There isn’t a lot of economic news for the remainder of this week, and most eyes will be on the PCE figures out next Friday. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3TX5X1I What started off as a positive trading morning, slid negative as the day progressed. Powell’s comments yesterday were debated as to whether he took his ‘Pivot’ from October back. Not to worry, because first, I don’t think he did take it back and two rate cuts are still priced in to Fed futures, and second, as I mentioned yesterday there is enough in the economy that is good at this time to withstand a delayed move lower in rates by a few months. The Fed’s beige book out today supported that general positive undertone in the economy which helped us off the lows of the day a few hours before closing as well. Seeing as we all made our tax payments this week, yesterday we saw the US Government take in the most it ever has in tax collections from corporations and non withheld amounts at $155B. The previous high water mark was back in 2022 following a big year prior and reopening after the pandemic when the same April figure was $121B. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is expecting total tax receipts for the full year 2024 to come in right near that record level in 2022 at roughly $4.93T. This is good news for the budget deficit and the growth rate of Treasury bill issuance which is set to decline for the first time in two years, although still won’t put us any where near an actual budget surplus when we are talking about chipping away at a $2T deficit. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q5001u A mixed day of trading between positive and negative all morning and right into the market close with the Dow slightly higher and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just below fair value. Rates continue their move higher, with the 10-year up 4 bps and now at the 4.66% level. So aside from what so far has been a tougher start to the second quarter, a few things to keep in mind: Rates and Fed futures have reset higher based just as much on stronger-than-expected good things in the economy, such as earnings growth, GDP, and employment, as they have on inflation expectations. We are still only 4% from all-time highs in the S&P 500 when the historical intra-year drawdown is more like 14% on average. So, yes, markets are down a little here, and volatility is up with higher rates, but keep in mind this is pretty run-of-the-mill market consolidation at most at this point. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Q2J5g8 Against Doomsdayism Where this Iran-Israel atrocity goes from here, what should and should not have been done, what and should not be done, what it will mean for markets and oil prices – all these things notwithstanding, the winner of the weekend appears to be anti-missile defense systems, first pursued by the Reagan administration in the 1980’s. The ability for this technology across multiple mediums to bat nearly a thousand in putting down missiles and drones coming in hot to do unspeakable damage is, well, vindicating. The specifics of the various technologies and strategies are fascinating, but for now, we celebrate those whose vision was to shoot down missiles and missiles, from ground and from air. Such military investment saves lives, and deserves our celebration. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JfyXwQ I cannot tell you how much fun it is for me to spend three hours on a Friday morning reading research. Reading when it is dark outside is the single activity that brings me the most joy, and I love the inspiration it fostered for today's Dividend Cafe Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3JfyXwQ A modestly positive day in markets overall today on some better-than-expected PPI numbers following yesterday’s selloff on CPI. So what one-day taketh, another giveth back (well, not quite). The Producer Price Index numbers showed a gain of just .2% for the month on headline when .3% was expected, and the Core PPI only gained .1% for the month. The takeaway is PPI is just not confirming a reacceleration in inflation on the wholesale side, which is a positive. We unpacked yesterday’s CPI numbers pretty well, I thought, but I am sharing this chart from our friends at Strategas with you below to show you where rate expectations have now moved since. My point here is that while they have moved meaningfully higher, I do believe this to be a good thing, contrary to what some may say. The economy, employment, and the markets have all digested these higher rate expectations and it’s simply far healthier for markets to focus and trade on the actual fundamentals of the economy and earnings versus solely on the hopes of looser monetary policy. Shown below, we came into the year expecting Fed funds at 3.5% by Christmas and have now priced in just two rate cuts and ending this year closer to 4.75%. The bar of Fed expectations has been reset to a level high enough that it is now more supportive for markets than the opposite at this point. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3PWoA4P A down day in both stocks and bonds today following a disappointment on CPI numbers by one tenth on both Headline and Core, that sent the Dow down XXX points and the 10-year bond yield up .18XXbps. We expected .3% on both and got .4% instead to cause todays action, so on one hand a risk off day as higher rates were priced in on yields, and on the other, the difference of a tenth is far from dramatic in and of itself. I do believe the Federal Reserve is an independent institution adhering to its employment and price stability mandates. I also believe they are aware of the Fiscal paradigm as well however (not driven by, but aware). Do I think a $2T budget deficit when we are at full employment with interest expense now accounting for 17% of tax revenue when our average termed government debt interest rate is only at 3.3% is on their radar in terms of Quantitative Tightening, yes I do. They can’t go until inflation gives them the OK sign (or gets close enough), but they are ready to reduce rates later this year as they’ve telegraphed, and from the Fed minutes released just today my point on reducing QT will come in to play sooner than later. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4aKgDaL We traded mostly lower the entire day today but then rallied back to fair value the last hour or so of trading. Tomorrow we have CPI out, and with a lack of other meaningful economic data today and right before earnings season heats up later this week, markets were mixed in anticipation. Bonds did rally across the curve giving back some of the back up in rates we have seen the past few sessions with the 10-year down 6bps. With earnings season set to start this Friday, a quick recap of where expectations lie: 3% revenue growth, 5% earnings growth on the quarter with a big up tick in Utility (believe it or not) earnings growth up 18%. For the year we are still looking at roughly $243 per share on the SP500 or about 10% growth from the previous year. Sectors where the bar on expectations is set fairly high at this point are in technology and communications, with Energy and Materials the opposite so it will be interesting to see where markets price the actual results in comparison. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4aMHEug Economic Front The primary news of the weekend was the 303k new jobs created in March, up by 89k over expectations. A full 232k of that came from the private sector. The two prior months were revised upwards by 22k. The household survey was up huge, as well. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. Construction was solid (39k new j obs), and leisure and hospitality led the way, with private education and health care strong as well. The annual gain in wages is +4.1%, and the average hours worked went up to 34.4 (had been 34.3). Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - The stock market dropped this week and it has given me a chance to write a Dividend Cafe about one of my favorite topics – the crucial importance of predicting the future, reading the tea leaves, and all that good stuff. I have strong opinions about people’s talent in such projections and the relevance of such to one’s long-term financial success. So today we are going to just have at it and talk about this week’s market volatility and what it means to you. Some of you are going to be really, really disappointed (if I did my job right). Jump on in, to the Dividend Cafe. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - Our morning rally in stocks turned decisively negative midday. There was geo-political tension with Iran threatening action after Israel’s strike on Syria and then some mixed messaging from different Fed presidents today that seemed to both contribute to today’s decline. That said, there really wasn’t a whole lot to warrant such a large 750-point swing from top to bottom on the day, so some strange market action with volatility picking up. While the overall labor force participation rate has come up recently, it’s still on the lower end of the historical norm at about 62.5%. It’s interesting to see the bifurcation of what’s driving it. The participation rate amongst the largest cohort of working 25-54 year olds is actually the highest it has ever been in this country at 83.5%, while the 54+ is basically at the lowest level it has ever been at about 38.5%. Read into that what you will, but the charts seem to shift just following the pandemic with a greater gap between the two cohorts. Younger folks with fewer assets had less wealth effects from rising prices, while the opposite was more prevalent in the older is my take. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3U2mBhF A modestly positive trading day today in markets with both stocks a little higher and the VIX lower following a few down days. ADP payroll numbers for March came in quite strong at 184k, although the actual employment report this Friday will get more attention. Powell had comments out today that reiterated their patient approach on lowering rates which is really just more of the same with Fed futures unchanged. Sort of a quiet day really all around. As the office REIT space recovers, earnings revisions for next year have brought the average estimate from -1.8% to now 12.2% for 2025. Healthcare REIT’s have also seen a huge revision from -17.2% to now 6.9% for next year EPS estimates. In fact of all 10 industries in the SP500 with upward revisions for next year, 6 of them are in the REIT space overall. Now, I imagine if interest rates don’t move lower as much as expected the shine may wear off for these analysts, but interesting nonetheless. Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com