The Contrarian Investor Podcast

This podcast episode was recorded on Monday, May 1, and released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast. Brady Dale joins the podcast to discuss his book, 'SBF: How the FTX bankruptcy unwound crypto's very bad good guy' and offer his thoughts on the present and future of cryptocurrencies. Content Highlights Who is Sam Bankman-Fried exactly? Is he a crook? (Yeah, probably) Misunderstood? The author has known SBF for awhile and states that his subject was initially motivated by effective altruism, or EA ... (1:27); FTX was undone by its special treatment of Alameda. If it wasn't for that, "Sam would still be on the news all the time" today (10:54); Bankman-Fried's apparent misreading of crypto cycles led to ill-timed bets after Bitcoin hit an all-time high in November 2021 (14:26); In one of SBF's last conversations with the author, SBF claims he is unlikely to get a fair trial due to being proverbially hung already in the courts of opinion (17:59); Where does SBF rank among other financial market fraudsters? Perhaps Long Term Capital Management is the closest comparison... (23:52); Background on the guest, including what got him to write the book on SBF (34:03); Cryptos should eventually become a normal part of the economy. In many ways the story of SBF vindicates this (38:26); The world only really needs three blockchains: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin (44:28); Crypto regulation was supposed to have happened already, but it all seems to be talk (49:58). More From Brady Dale Purchase the book from Wiley or Amazon; Twitter: @BradyDale; Subscribe to his Axios newsletter.

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. To track a partial portfolio of Value Investing Substack, click here. Aaron Pek of Value Investing Substack joins the podcast to discuss his bullish outlook on three individual stocks and more generally the investment case for Malaysia. Content Highlights First idea: Intel (INTC) and why it can compete with Samsung (SSNLF) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) (2:33); Some additional background on Intel and its business case (4:49); Bears say INTC has years until it can catch up to TSMC, but Intel has the necessary machinery to bridge the gap sooner (10:10); Second idea: Occidental Petroleum (OXY), a unique oil play beloved by Warren Buffett (15:23); Background on the guest (23:57); Third idea: Hibiscus Petroleum (HIPEF), whose management team the guest views as the Warren Buffett management team of southeast Asian oil and gas (28:13); The case for Malaysia: a view from the ground (32:29); There is an ETF, iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM) which tracks Malaysian stocks. Discussion of Malaysia's geopolitical place between China and the US (34:39); China's lost decade (44:11). Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions. More on the Guest Substack: ValueInvesting.Substack.com; Twitter: @ValueInvestingZ;.

This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, April 6, with an actionable highlights clip previewing the following day's non-farm payrolls released to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode was then released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast. Mike Singleton of Invictus Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his pessimistic outlook for the economy, why he's concerned about credit risk, and why the Federal Reserve should end up cutting rates before too long. Content Highlights The outlook for risk assets is still not constructive (2:40); Fed rate hikes are very close to a peak, if not there already (4:43); Economic conditions point to stubborn inflation (7:09); Inflation may not need to return to the Fed's 2% target for there to be rate cuts (11:00); The outlook for commodities prices is not particularly constructive either (15:59); What to make of the banks? (21:14); One leading economic indicator that Invictus likes, which is overlooked (or ignored) by the market at large (22:30); The backdrop is still positive for short-term bonds (24:28); Leading indicators for the yield curve include bank lending standards, which right now suggest a steepening... (26:13); More about the Guest Twitter: @InvictusMacro; Website: Invictus-Research.com. Not investment advice.

This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, March 23 and released to premium subscribers the following day. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast. Kevin Philip of Bel Air Investment Advisors joins the podcast to discuss why he's still bullish about technology despite seismic changes in that industry, his less enthusiastic take on cryptocurrencies, and other issues he's watching -- be they in the banking sector or geopolitically. Content Highlights Tech is not dreck, nor is it dead. Technological advances are at the heart of US economic growth. Demand for digital goods may have gotten ahead of its skis during Covid. It will return (1:40); Chances for an interest cut by year-end have increased with the bank failures (4:30); The employment situation is changing in the technology industry as it comes to terms with delicate circumstances around business models and the concept of value in general (6:01); The bank failures may create opportunities for venture capital in two areas: secondary funds and a new vintage of funds that should generate outsize returns in the future (9:20); Tech stocks have been beaten down, but lower interest rates can sustain earnings multiples. There are risks, however... (11:23); Some of the threats and opportunities wrought by Chat GPT and AI (14:11); When it comes to cryptocurrencies, the guest is not a major fan -- and this was recorded before Binance (18:52); Silicon Valley Bank was poorly managed and had a bad business model. It deserved to fail (21:52); As for Credit Suisse, the Swiss bank appears to have been undone by a crisis of confidence (23:44); Background on the guest (27:50); Bel Air's clientele is mostly about wealth protection rather than growth. What are some tried and true methods for accomplishing this? (32:25); China discussion and why there's no need to invest internationally (34:48); Through it all, there are reasons for optimism (43:31). Not investment advice. For more information on the guest, visit the Bel Air Investment Advisors website.

This episode was recorded in two parts, with a special segment added on March 14 to address the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. Premium subscribers gained access to this added segment the same day it was recorded. Here it has been merged into the same file to create a single episode. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast. Jake Schurmeier of Harbor Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his experience at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which overlapped with a full monetary policy cycle, and what this may tell us about future Fed policy -- especially in light of the events surrounding Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. Content Highlights The guest spent several years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's open markets trading desk, where he was responsible for implementing monetary policy and monitoring the treasury market (3:41); In this role he experienced the whole life cycle of quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, concluding with the liquidity injections that accompanied the Covid pandemic (5:13); Chances are "pretty high" that the Fed reins in quantitative tightening, or QT, in light of the events around Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) and Signature Bank of New York (SBNY). A lot of it depends on the uptake of the Bank Term Financing Program, or BTFP, the new lending facility (6:49); Can these measures save the business model of regional banks? (10:26); The possibility of moral hazard introduced by regulators (12:57); Where does this leave interest rate policy? Fifty basis points is probably off the table, but a 25bps raise is certainly in the offing... (14:10) In general, what kinds of catalysts will the Fed be looking for to shift from QT to QE? (16:20); Was there ever any talk of negative interest rates? Did the Fed ever have discussions about buying stocks (21:00); Background on the guest (25:33); The Fed's purchases of mortgage-backed securities was in retrospect unnecessary on the scale and duration with which it happened during Covid (28:24); For a quasi-government organization, the Fed acts quite quickly. Faster than corporations. A look inside the Fed's decision-making process (32:05); Yes, Fed officials and employees are required to disclose their stock transactions (37:29). Not investment advice. For more information on the guest, visit HarborCapital.com.

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Mark Szemeszki joins the podcast to discuss his highly profitable short crypto trades from last year and why his business cycle theory has him sitting in cash. Content Highlights Three-hundred-and-eighty percent (380%) returns last year. How did he do it? (2:47); The macro view and leading indicators are pointing to a recession right now, which makes risk-taking more problematic in the short term (4:17); His short crypto trades predate the FTX saga (7:33); More on his business cycle theory (10:32); Inflationary pressure is real, including from China's reopening (13:37); More information on catalysts sought when shorting altcoins (16:17); Shorting the narrative on altcoins is a good strategy if you can get a good entry point (20:20); Background on the guest (25:08); More on his trades last year (27:13); Probably 99% of crytpo currencies are useless, even Bitcoin and Ethereum (29:37). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @MSzemeszki; Covey portfolio.

A short clip of actionable highlights from this podcast episode was distributed to premium subscribers on Feb. 9 — almost one week ago at the time of this writing. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits (and avoid annoying ads and announcements), visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up! Callie Cox of eToro joins the podcast to discuss her view that the Federal Reserve can engineer a 'soft landing' -- defeating inflation while not tipping the US economy into a recession. Content Highlights It's hard to see how the Fed will be able to combat inflation without breaking things in the economy, but this is the guest's view (3:00); This view is partly based on the job market (4:06); Inflation is the major risk to the 'soft landing' thesis. But there are encouraging signs (6:00); Still, there is a chance investors are underestimating the chances of higher interest rates from the Fed (8:08); Ultimately, investors are discounting the global economy's strength (9:21); Technology has been harder hit than other sectors of the economy, which may bring second-order effects especially locally. But nationally, initial jobless claims are still low (13:57); The US consumer has been a particular strong point. No reason for that to stop (15:53); Background on the guest (20:12); Views on cryptocurrency (24:48); The concept of decentralized finance, or DeFi: not just a fool's errand (26:43); Does the VIX still matter? Maybe, but there are better options to gauge volatility (31:14). More on Callie Cox Website: eToro.com; Corporate Twitter: @eToroUS; Personal Twitter: @CallieAbost. Not investment advice.

A short clip of actionable highlights from this podcast episode was distributed to premium subscribers on Feb. 9 -- almost one week ago at the time of this writing. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits (and avoid annoying ads and announcements), visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up! Robert Cote, principal at Cote Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss his model of technology investing, how it's different than venture capital, and which areas of new technology that he is most excited about. Content Highlights The last 20 years have seen venture capital focus on software companies, almost to the exclusion of anything else. Therein lies the opportunity (1:09); Hardware has been overlooked and can become the focus of technology investors again. One example is manufacturing (6:39); Use of nanocarbon has created one specific advancement in the area of solar technology (8:50); Unfortunately, this technology is not investable through public markets (12:22); Another example: textiles, specifically textile recycling (17:08); Background on the guest and his investment process (22:56); There is transportation-related innovation as well. No, not self-driving cars (36:31); Something from the realm of augmented reality: X-ray technology for surgery (38:57): Finally, what about crypto currencies? (43:18). More on Robert Cote Website: CoteCapital.com; Twitter: @CoteCapital; YouTube: @CoteCapital9399.

Joseph Politano of Apricitas Economics joins the podcast to discuss his views on the various discrepancies in the global economy -- and how the whole thing may play out. Content Highlights US home prices could be due for more declines, based on how housing starts and interest rates have been trending (2:15); How much of the strength of the labor market is due to interest rate hikes not having taken full effect yet? (4:09); Expecting a 'mild recession' may be as naive as anticipating a 'soft landing' (8:44); Traditional leading indicators are out of synch, with manufacturing employment dropping precipitously but the services sector going from strength to strength (13:30); The Fed may have already overdone it with interest rate hikes (14:57); The 'best case' scenario may be akin to what happened in 1995-96 (18:15); Background on the guest (22:23); What to (possibly) expect from Fed policy the rest of 2023 (27:29); Watch Japan's monetary policy as well (34:17); What about cryptocurrencies as a systemic risk? (39:08); More on Joseph Politano Website: Apricitas.io; Twitter: @JosephPolitano.

This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 18, 2023, with a short clip of actionable highlights distributed to premium subscribers the following day. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up! Mike Edwards, deputy chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to discuss China's post-Covid reopening and why its impact on global markets is not being fully priced in by investors. Content Highlights China's abrupt U-turn over 'Zero Covid' is unquestionably one of the biggest changes to take effect in the global economy over the last few months (2:23); There have been reservations about this reopening, but it is happening with authoritative force and will have a major positive impact (5:08); What about the US de-coupling from China and the embattled real estate sector? (11:00) Where this will be felt most is in markets that have exposure to the Chinese consumer. It also points to Europe and emerging markets outperforming the US (17:54); Chinese consumers were far more restrained than their US counterparts during Covid and have been slower to return -- especially tourists. This is not just a one-off in terms of the resurgence of Chinese travel and services (24:20); What to make of the latest economic developments in the US, especially with the consumer? (27:31); Weiss's house view is that the US will avoid recession this year (34:02); Background on the guest (37:49); China can re-emerge without the US as a major partner (51:36); After some consolidation, the US economic and market cycle is marked by investors seeking to put money to work -- slowly (57:18). More on Mike Edwards Website: GWeiss.com; Twitter: @MEdwards_Weiss. Not investment advice.

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly sanguine view of the economy in 2023: Why cyclical stocks should outperform the technology and defensive sectors, and why he's expecting inflation to drop to 3.5% by the second half of the year. Content Highlights Inflationary recessions are different from deflationary ones. The last four were the latter. If there is a recession this year, it will be the former (02:18); Earnings downside is limited in this scenario, by 5% based on what happened in similar situations in the past, and earnings should actually go up (5:56); Tech margins should continue to be under pressure but economically-sensitive cyclical stocks should see margin expansion (10:50); The US labor market has actually started to weaken considerably -- and not due to Fed policy (12:18); There have been some big adjustments in the labor market post-pandemic (16:47); The 'wealth destruction effect' from tech stocks selling off is negligible (27:35); One point of concern: the deficit. This is where the implosion in wealth could affect things (32:59); The coming budget battle in Congress is worth paying attention to (34:41); The 'higher for longer' Fed interest rate hike thesis has gained traction. What this means for stocks (43:27); Inflation: Expect 3.5% CPI by mid-year (47:37). More Information on the Guest Substack: Ironsides Macroeconomics; Twitter: @BarryKnapp. Not intended as investment advice.

Alex Chausovsky, vice president of analytics and consulting at Miller Resource Group, rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly upbeat economic outlook for 2023, driven by a healthy labor market in the US. Content Highlights There may be a recession in 2023 but the US labor market should hold up just fine (3:03); The guest's assessment is due to first-hand knowledge as his employer is a recruiting firm. None of their clients are slowing hiring (5:37); The trend is due in part to re-shoring of high-end manufacturing to the US, but also to non-US companies seeking to establish manufacturing centers stateside (7:46); The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates aggressively and plans to continue this policy (albeit less aggressively) in 2023, but most of the damage may be done already (9:12) With inflation abating there will be less impetus for the Fed to "truly break things" in 2023 (13:05); Supply chain issues have mostly been resolved, with auto production and semiconductors especially benefiting. Further easing can be expected on the labor side (14:44); One sector of the economy that is clearly poised to benefit: automation (16:56); Background on the guest (22:56); Housing has already contracted but this should turn around by the end of 2023 or early 2024 (31:32); The outcome he's expecting in his native Ukraine (37:35). More Information on the Guest Website: MillerResource.com; LinkedIn: AlexChausovsky; Twitter: @AChausovsky (not very active).

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, joins the podcast to discuss his view on asset allocation going into 2023: why he is bullish on hard assets like energy and bearish on fixed income -- and why the inflationary environment is likely going to stick around. Content Highlights How Centerfin was set up coming into this year and what went into its contrarian decision to avoid fixed income (4:06); Current views on the market after a tough year (5:25); Centerfin's take is to be long hard assets, including commodities and commodity-linked equities while continuing to avoid fixed income like bonds (7:44); The environment is different now. There has been a regime change since 2017. Inflation can't just be exported anymore (9:48); There will likely be a recession. Once we emerge from it, leading industries will probably be different than they were in past recoveries (11:18); Why Centerfin is bullish energy and how they are playing it (12:55); Their chosen ETF to get exposure to clean energy (14:48); There is no need to buy international (ex-US) energy stocks (16:36); Short discussion on the concept of introducing different prices for different uses of energy (18:48); Re-shoring from China with Apple (AAPL) moving all its production out of the country and how to potentially play that trend (20:46); Background on the guest and what got him to start Centerfin (25:53); Distressed investing remains out of reach for most investors but Centerfin is considering ways to change that... (30:52); The bullish case for copper (39:13); How best to gain exposure to uranium (40:00). More on Kyrill Asatur and Centerfin Website: Centerfin.co; Twitter: @WallStHobbes; LinkedIn page; Facebook: CenterfinHQ; Instagram: @CenterfinHQ. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Michael Pisani, aka Options Mike, joins the podcast to discuss why he's anticipating a year-end rally in stocks. Content Highlights It's been a tough year for stocks and risk assets. That may be about to change (2:10); Jerome Powell and the Fed have twice this year fooled markets into anticipating a pivot. But something has changed and the FOMC is no longer unanimous with its hawkishness (4:04); There is still a lot of cash still on the sidelines (6:46); Specific areas of the market Pisani likes here. And specific stocks, primarily Ford (F) and to a lesser extent General Motors (GM), both as longterm plays (11:42); Another stock he's bullish on: Snowflake (SNOW) and several that are candidates to go to zero (12:33); An easy contrarian play: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Yes, really (15:46); Pisani's take on cryptos (18:31); Background on the guest (23:44). More on Options Mike Website: SmartOptionTrading.com; Twitter: @OptionsMike. Not intended as investment advice.

Premium subscribers received this episode several days early -- and without ads or announcements -- as they do all podcast episodes. Sign up on Supercast or Substack. You can also take our listener survey to receive a free month of access. Jeremy Cordon joins the podcast to discuss his Goldback creation. These gold-imbued currency notes are worth upwards of 1/1000 a troy ounce and are already circulating (and being used) for point-of-sale transactions. Content Highlights Goldbacks seek to solve one of the challenges of using gold as a currency of exchange: the lack of small denominations that can be used in point-of-sale transactions (2:57); A single goldback is worth 1/1000 of a troy ounce of gold, or about $4 at current rates. The notes are imbued with physical gold through a microtechnology process and serialized (5:06); Goldbacks trade at a premium to physical gold because of the engineering and artistic labor that goes into their production -- and demand, as supply has historically been limited (8:54) Goldbacks as a disaster hedge (12:48); Background on the guest and how he came to create goldbacks (16:57); The limitations of cryptocurrencies when it comes to creating a gold-backed currency, through the guest's own experience (21:35); The legality of creating gold-backed currency (24:12); Between $8 million and $12 million-worth of goldbacks are currently in circulation, but goldback.com is a wholesaler (26:48); The guest's investing strategy and the concept of gold-backed leases as a way to profit from the goldback trend (30:57). More on Jeremy Cordon Website: Goldback.com; LinkedIn page; YouTube channel; Instagram: @Goldback. Disclaimer: The host does not own goldbacks, holds no particular view on goldbacks, and does not benefit from the sale of goldbacks.

A 'highlight clip' of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Nov. 7, the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Don't want to pay? Take our readership survey and get a month free. Bob Elliott, chief investment officer of Unlimited Funds, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the Federal Reserve, inflation, the midterm elections, and why stocks have entered a long 'slog' for the foreseeable future. Content Highlights Investors have been conditioned for recessions to feature a fast decline in equity markets followed by a rapid recovery. This time around those dynamics are different (3:44); There is no chance of a 'Fed pivot' coming anytime soon (7:58); What about infighting at the Fed and within the FOMC? (11:03); Yes, you need unemployment to increase for there to be any progress with inflation. Higher prices are no longer due to supply chain issues (13:57); The Fed will raise either 50bps or 75bps at its next meeting and rates could easily go up to 6% (21:22); Background on the guest and his ETF, the Unlimited HFND Multi Strategy Return Tracker ETF. Stock ticker: HFND (26:19); The growing disconnect between hedge fund positioning and retail investors: Hedge funds are short bonds, long commodities, bullish gold, and are sitting on a bunch of cash... (36:21); The Fed's target rate for inflation is 2%, but that could change. That would bring a myriad of issues... (38:24); It's hard to get bullish about longterm bonds: right now and for the foreseeable future (40:54); Investors continue to look for reasons that the economy is slowing and the Fed needs to reverse course. There is virtually no evidence of this happening (42:44); The midterm elections are likely to lead to a split government. This brings tail risks that few people are talking about (44:50). More Information on Bob Elliott Website: UnlimitedFunds.com; Twitter: @BobEUnlimited;

A 'highlight clip' of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 24, with the full episode released the following day -- without ads or announcements. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Jason Shapiro joins the podcast to discuss his trading strategy, based on the simple premise that most investors are wrong most of the time. This approach requires trades to be crowded, which is decidedly (and surprisingly) not the case right now -- with two possible exceptions. Content Highlights Most traders lose money. Shapiro seeks to capture these losses by going against the crowd (3:11); He does this by monitoring the Commitment of Traders report for extreme positioning, which he then fades (4:03); The thinking behind this? The crowd is wrong. "It's really that simple." The discounting method is not price but positioning (6:11); Shapiro monitors 37 different futures markets. Two examples of where this approach worked in the past (7:03); Right now "I'm seeing some pretty scary stuff, because you don't have anybody crowded" in major asset classes (8:24); One possible exception: lumber (11:08); Background on the guest (16:35); Patience is a virtue, especially for contrarians (27:28); "I have contrarian views on everything...that's how I develop my opinion." People are wrong because they want others to guide them (31:00); The set-up in cryptos is "massively dangerous" based on positioning in Bitcoin futures. This sets Bitcoin and cryptos up for a major drop... (36:36). (On this last point, Shapiro shared the following chart) For More About Jason Shapiro Website: CrowdedMarketReport.com; Twitter: @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt; LinkedIn: CMR-Publishing.

A 'highlight clip' of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 17 -- one business day after it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Kris Sidial of The Ambrus Group joins the podcast to discuss tail-risk hedging: how it works, why it's important, and how investors can still take advantage of volatility mispricings to protect themselves against further downside -- at least in stocks. Content Highlights What is tail risk hedging? (3:19); Traditional hedges haven't worked, starting with the 60:40 approach. How might investors hedge stock and bond exposure? (6:15); There are numerous options for investors to protect against downturns. But it's not always as easy as buying put contracts on indexes (8:24); Variance swaps, one way to compound returns on movements in volatility (10:25); Thoughts on UK pensions and what might have caused issues in that segment of the market (15:27); What investors are doing in this environment in terms of tail-risk hedging -- there are still opportunities to hedge (20:02); Background on the guest (30:08); Discussion of systemic risk as a result of the layers of options trades and counterparties: "There is a systemic hazard taking place right now in the derivatives market" (39:32); Speaking of risk, what about the regulatory environment? Are regulators asleep at the switch? Reasons to believe Dodd-Frank is perhaps not as effective as people think.. (43:37) Thoughts on cryptocurrencies (50:01). More About Kris Sidial Website: Ambrus.Capital; Twitter: @KSidiii;; White paper mentioned in the episode.

A 'highlight clip' of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 10. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Fabian Wintersberger joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, inflation, and Fed policy. Content Highlights The Fed will not succeed at bringing inflation down to 2%. There will be no soft-landing for the economy (2:48); Interest rate hikes will proceed until something breaks in the real economy, forcing the Fed to reverse course (5:04); Bond yields: We haven't seen the highs yet (8:16); Background on the guest (14:10); The situation in Europe. Central banks have no choice but to follow the Fed higher (16:38); The situation in Wintersberger's native Austria, which faces an unprecedented winter with dramatically higher energy costs (18:55); Austria has historical ties to Russia, including in its banking sector, where one institution still has business in the country... (23:27). More on the Guest Twitter: @f_wintersberger; Substack: The Weekly Wintersberger.

This podcast episode brought to you by Covey -- Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. Todd Sullivan of ValuePlays.com rejoins the podcast to discuss oil markets and the investment case for cannabis. Sullivan's call for $100 oil last year turned out to be prescient. Oil prices have retreated from their peak, but that will be short-lived, he says... (This episode was recorded Sept. 22, before the recent rebound in oil prices. Premium subscribers get an early actionable highlight clip of the podcast along with earlier release of the full episode -- and a host of other benefits. More on our Substack or Supercast.) Content Highlights Fears of 'demand destruction' have led to the decline in oil prices, but risks are tilted toward prices moving higher again. Production is not coming back (3:48); How much of a concern is a slowing Chinese economy when it comes to oil prices? (10:14); What about stocks? Sullivan continues to like pipeline companies... (16:00); The investment case for cannabis: Overview (27:03); The only thing that will unleash capital on the cannabis industry is decriminalization (31:46); What to look for if you are looking to buy and hold cannabis stocks and two of the guest's favorites (34:30). More About Todd Sullivan Website: ValuePlays.com; Twitter: @ToddSullivan; Covey portfolio.

Premium subscribers received an eight-minute clip containing the most actionable highlights from this episode on Sept. 26. This is just one of many benefits of premium membership. For more visit our Substack or Supercast. Jordi Visser, president and chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to discuss his reasons for optimism during this trying time for global financial markets. Content Highlights The environment is constructive for risk assets (2:26); Focus has moved from inflation. Investors are too negative (3:50); The Fed is raising interest rates. Inflation is coming down -- a lot faster than people think (4:41); What sectors and why? (9:53); No, you don't need unemployment to increase for inflation to come down (13:22); The bullish case for biotech (15:12); The blockchain will have profound impact on labor markets (19:42); Background on the guest (25:13); Clean energy and how that fits in (29:14); Oil should move higher, but watch out for global trade (36:47); Web 3.0 and cryptocurrencies: here too there are reasons to be bullish (39:48); Beta has started to outperform profitability. A final reason to be optimistic (51:45). More About Jodi Visser Website: GWeiss.com; Twitter: @JVisser_Weiss; Video on inflation after the CPI print; Weekly podcast: In Search of Green Marbles.

This podcast episode was recorded on Sept. 16, with a short highlight clip containing the most actionable items released to premium subscribers that same day. The full episode was released to premium subscribers without ads or interruptions a day after recording. Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his views on stagflation, the Federal Reserve, U.S. dollar, and why the bottom is not yet in for stocks. Content Highlights Printing money does not fix supply issues. Next stop: Stagflation (2:59); The current environment simply is not conducive to taking risks (11:15); There's too much groupthink at the Fed and it's time for Jerome Powell to step down (13:21); The bottom for stocks is not in yet. The Fed needs to pivot first. What to watch for there (15:26); Background on the guest (24:43); The outlook for gold (31:20); How high might the Fed go with interest rates? (34:09). More Information on Axel Merk Website: MerkInvestments.com; Twitter: @AxelMerk; Merk Stagflation ETF and other funds: MerkFunds.com; Not intended as investment advice.

This podcast episode was recorded on Sept. 12, with a short highlight clip containing the most actionable items released to premium subscribers that same day. The full episode was released to premium subscribers without ads or interruptions a day after recording. To accommodate this new format, and our new production schedule featuring weekly podcasts, subscription prices are scheduled to increase. However, the old rate can be locked in for a limited time through this link (also mentioned in the intro). Richard Excell, former prop trader and portfolio manager and currently a professor of finance at Gies College of Business, joined the podcast to discuss his outlook on the economy, inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and more. Content Highlights The outlook on inflation: 5% by December, but don't expect the Fed to ease off of rate hikes (7:14); Can the Fed engineer a soft landing? It has succeeded just three of the last 14 times it hiked rates... (9:34); We may not see a housing price decline on a national basis anytime soon (14:05); Expect a 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on Sept. 20 -- and again at the subsequent meeting in November, even though the economy should not start to brake until next year (16:11); Background on the guest (22:02); Views on asset allocation: more constructive for bonds than equities at present (27:03); A recession will happen. The good news: it may be mild... (32:30); How much of a concern are global issues in Europe and China? (35:40). More Information on the Guest Website: GiesBusiness.Illinois.edu; Substack: Stay Vigilant; CommonStock: Stay Vigilant; Twitter: @ExcellRichard,

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Sept. 1, 2022 without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Daniel Partlow, chief risk officer at Advent Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss convertible bonds. Partlow is a specialist in these securities, having written a book on the subject titled 'Convertible Securities: A Complete Guide to Investment and Corporate Financing Strategies.' Content Highlights First, the basics: What are convertible bonds and how do they work? The asset class has actually been around for more than three centuries... (3:29); Some of the characteristics of converts include a maturity of about four to five years but with low interest rate sensitivity of much shorter duration bonds (6:42); A typical balanced convert will provide downside protection (via the bond floor) and upside potential through the equity participation (9:18); Converts have done well in inflationary environments, with less volatility than stocks (11:44); The default rate for converts is a fraction of high yield and leveraged loans (20:38); Background on the guest (24:59); The specter of stagflation and how converts can protect against that (27:50); Where might there be particular opportunities in the converts market right now? (33:07); Examples of individual securities that may be of interest (37:52). More Background on the Guest Website and link to the book mentioned in the introduction. Additional Information The following slides were supplied by Advent Capitaol Management.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers two days ago without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Chris Hutchins joins the podcast to discuss his strategy for asset allocation, which leans heavily on passive investing and optimizing earnings power rather than picking stocks. In this (admittedly) unorthodox episode he discusses some of his methods. Content Highlights You probably can't beat the market. Instead of trying to optimize the portfolio, why not optimize how quickly money can be put to work? Or maximize income from employment (5:55); Beating the market may be extremely difficult (if not impossible). but educating oneself is still invaluable along several lines that are discussed (8:07); How does Hutchins' asset allocation break down exactly? (10:45); The guest is also a venture capitalist. What areas of technology is he particularly excited about right now? (12:35); What about the VC model itself? (21:30); Background on the guest (30:00); Not investing is as big a mistake as investing incorrectly. Some of the options (35:32); How important is liquidity? (38:44); What has the guest most worried right now? (42:06). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @Hutchins; Website: WealthFront.com; Podcast website: AllTheHacks.com (includes links to podcast),

This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 3 and released to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Hugh Hendry is a man who needs no introduction to contrarians. Over the course of this 90-minute conversation, he provided many views on markets, the economy, the Federal Reserve, China, and a lot more. Of particular interest to investors are his bullish views on commodities, oil producers, and luxury goods makers... Content Highlights Hendry's most contrarian opinion right off the bat: The Fed is not responsible for the asset price bubble (2:40); "We find ourselves in the fourth depression of the last 200 years" after "les miserables" period of 1830 to ~1855, 1870 to the late 1890s, and the 1930s (8:11); "I don't think we have inflation." Sales of non-discretionary items are not increasing (13:53); Very few people understand money and money creation. What are they missing? (28:56); What's behind the stock market rally this summer? It may be commodities, at least in part... (39:49); Markets are 'bucking broncos.' Volatility can be a major distraction and nothing happens in a straight line. But commodity producers and uranium should be in good shape over the long term (46:55); Background on the guest. As an 'OG contrarian' Hendry joins an exclusive list (54:58); A little insight into Hendry's current life and psychology (1:10:40); Betting on the Chinese yuan weakening (1:14:37); The odds of the 10-year treasury making new lows (1:22:44); China invading Taiwan? Hendry sets the odds at 20% and says China will never have a stronger bargaining positioning vis-a-vis the U.S (1:24:16). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @Hendry_Hugh; Substack: HughHendry; Instagram: HughHendryOfficial; YouTube: HughHendryOfficial; The Acid Capitalist.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 26. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Free trials are available. Louis O'Connor, CEO of Strategic Metals Invest, joins the podcast to make the case for rare earth metals. These commodities, hitherto unavailable to retail investors, are now accessible and entering the mainstream... Content Highlights Rare earth metals (sometimes called rare earth elements) are intrinsic to daily life. They are part of modern technology as diverse as electric cars, military applications, solar applications, nuclear reactors, and more (3:01); China produces more than 80% of the world's rare earths and refines metals even mined in the U.S. (5:39); Okay, so what are these rare metals exactly? There are 17 in all, though not all are exactly rare, or vital... (8:12); Rare earths have outperformed almost all major asset classes the last five years (14:22); The supply picture for rare earths is complicated, while demand is quite inelastic, depending on a diverse set of buyers... (18:58); Rare earths are entering the mainstream and production is increasing in the U.S., where it is more expensive (23:01); There is a specific rare earth where the investment opportunity is particularly compelling at present (31:58); Tellurium, on the other hand, is one that is not deemed particularly advantageous at the moment (35:50). About the Guest Website: StrategicMetalsInvest.com; Twitter: @MetalsInvest; Facebook: StrategicMetalsInvest; YouTube.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 12. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Free trials are available. Salem Abraham of Abraham Trading Co. joins the podcast to discuss his bullish outlook for oil, predicated on supply issues and under-investment. Content Highlights The shift to renewable energy is real, even in the Texas panhandle. But the transition is still in the very early stages. Oil and gas are still needed -- so are investments in infrastructure (4:13); Worldwide drilling has yet to recover to pre-Covid levels. This will lead to $200/barrel oil and $10 gasoline prices (7:07); "I think we end up with stagflation," but even that will not solve the supply issues (8:50); Natural gas "is still a great investment" (14:14); The benefits of green hydrogen (16:31); There are more pipelines than popularly believed in the U.S. and they are actually more precarious than transmission lines (19:52); Background on the guest (29:36); Liquid alternatives and the need for better diversification (31:37); The Federal Reserve has to regain credibility after the 'transitory' talk. The Fed will blink, eventually... (36:02); Unrelated: Notre Dame will not join the Big 10 for football, says the alumnus (39:49). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @SalemAbraham; Website: AbrahamTrading.com.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers ton July 5 -- the same day it was recorded. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $10/month. Free trials are available. Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannock Burn Global FX, joins the podcast to discuss the precarious state of markets and what he is expecting from upcoming releases of key economic data. He also provides a pair of investment ideas for these times, with the understanding that nothing here is to be taken as investment advice. Content Highlights The coming week brings a number of crucial economic data around employment and inflation. What to expect (2:50); "I don't think we're in a recession yet. But I think it's going to be hard to avoid one." Cracks are appearing and these warrant attention (3:51); Weekly jobless claims (up Thursday) can be a leading indicator of recessions (5:30); Non-farm payrolls are up on Friday. What to expect (11:34); Core inflation is actually receding from highs, but the Fed can't (and more importantly won't) declare victory over inflation quite yet (14:42); Recent days have seen a shift in market sentiment, to where a rate cut is starting to be priced in (17:43); What is an investor to do here? The guest has two ideas, at opposite ends of the risk spectrum (25:23); More on the Guest Website: MarcToMarket.com; Twitter: @MarcMakingSense.

This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com — claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber. Deer Point Macro joins the podcast to discuss his view that the U.S. Federal Reserve will only hike interest rates once more before easing. Content Highlights The Fed is not some magical organization that can control all parts of monetary economics (2:50); The Fed can create demand for credit, but banks have to provide supply. And banks are pushing back (5:03); What to make of the Fed's rate hikes this year? How has that affected bank portfolios? (9:37); The eurodollar market plays a significant role in Fed policy and its implications. An explanation (13:24); The Fed stands to raise once more, at its next meeting in July, before having to cut rates in September (16:21); Inflation is stubbornly persistent. Doesn't this force the Fed to raise rates? (19:57); Background on the guest (30:14); Markets don't really react to ADP employment data, but for economic detective work it can be vitally important (31:48); How this all translates to asset prices: good for bonds but commercial banks are maybe not as safe as some would think. But regional banks may be a better bet (35:11); What about cryptocurrencies? (36:34); Quick discourse on the so-called 'Fisher effect' that posits that inflation rises as Fed funds increase -- over the long term (39:14). More on the Guest Substack: DeerPointMacro.substack.com; Twitter: @DeerPointMacro; CommonStock: DeerPointMacro.

This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com -- claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber. Kevin Rendino of 180 Degree Capital joins the podcast to discuss reasons for optimism (yes, optimism) in markets and why we may have already reached "peak pain." Content Highlights Valuations for most of the market are already discounting bad news across the board. Cash balances are at peak levels seen at the start of the pandemic, in 2008, and 2001 (2:44); What segments of the market are particularly interesting right now? Look to semiconductors for starters (4:54); How big of a concern is Fed policy? (7:20); Media companies will benefit as the economy resumes its growth and advertising budgets revamp. There are indications this cycle is already turning (13:49); What is 180 Capital's investing style and how does it work? (16:25); Background on the guest (25:17); The guest meets with company management often. What are some 'red flags' and 'green flags' he looks for? (31:38); The 'great resignation' and which companies may be a great 'pedigree' for future executives (38:18); Some parting guidance and why today's market feels more like 1990 than 2008 (43:17). More Information on the Guest Website: 180DegreeCapital.com; Twitter: @180DegreeCap; "Reasons for Hope" article; Stocks Mentioned on this Podcast 180 Degree Capital (TURN) -- the guest's publicly-traded fund; Lantronix (LTRX); Quantum (QMCO); Arena Group (AREN); Potbelly (PBPB). Not intended as investment advice.

This episode was recorded on May 26, 2022 and released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- that same day. There are a host of other benefits to becoming a premium subscribers, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast released each market day morning by 0700 ET. To become a premium subscriber, sign up here or through our substack. Ayesha Tariq of Keystone Consulting joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss her bearish views on the global economy and on stock markets, what investment options she prefers right now, and why work-from-home will not persist (or at least not at current levels). Content Highlights The idea of a 'Fed pivot' away from higher rates is baseless. The Fed has no choice but to raise rates (3:01); What about inflation having peaked? Won't that remove some pressure from the Fed? (8:35); Unemployment is due to rise, with companies soon having no choice but to lay off workers -- but this won't stop the Fed either (11:28); Markets had a good week. Did we have the bottom already? (13:57); What about commodities? A potential bright spot due to structural issues? (15:32); Background on the guest (21:06); What are some of the best options for investors in light of all this? (23:19); Real estate investment trusts are one good option, especially commercial real estate. Work-from-home was a phase that will be scaled back soon (26:25); More Information on the Guest Website: AyeshaTariq.Substack.com; Twitter: @AyeshaTariq; CommonStock: AyeshaTariq. Not intended as investment advice.

This podcast episode was recorded on May 11, 2022 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads or announcements, either!) To become a premium subscriber, go here or visit our Substack. Brooker Belcourt, CEO of Covey, joins the podcast to discuss his analyst platform and its 'alpha algorithm' that has been able to produce outperformance through its stock and ETF picks and crypto calls. Content Highlights Covey's contrarian thesis: Retail analysts are every bit as good, if not better, than institutional analysts (4:10); The idea of a platform to aggregate analyst opinion is not new. But very recent history has proven Covey correct: its analysts predicted the drop in cryptocurrencies and rise in value stocks over that have transpired over the last week (5:53); The 'alpha algorithm' and how that works (6:58); What is Covey's algorithm picking up right now? (11:03); Some highlights: Long commodities, fertilizer stocks like Mosaic (MOS), financials, energy stocks, and a few beaten-up tech names like Facebook/Meta (FB) and Alibaba (BABA). Short cryptos has been taken off (14:46); Isn't Covey just chasing past performance hoping for future results? (17:20) Great investors appear to have staying power, regardless of environment (23:27); Background on the guest and how he came to start Covey (28:11); Deeper discussion on how Covey's top analysts are positioning their portfolios right now (36:39); For More Information Website: Covey.io; Twitter: @Covey_io;

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers — without ads or announcements — on April 28, 2022. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, go here or visit our Substack. Mike Singleton of Invictus Research joins the podcast to discuss why the current sell-off is not a buying opportunity for stocks. Content Highlights Many contrarians currently believe sentiment is too bearish, meaning the market is due for a run for strong performance. Their conclusion is likely wrong (3:28); Regardless of what investors say in surveys, the key question is whether they have money on the line -- and how much (5:50); Right now retail exposure to stocks is at all-time-highs, while institutional investors have cash at low levels (7:27); What about the economic fundamentals, which are mostly in good shape? (10:09); The Fed actually has credibility when it comes to tightening interest rates -- and is not just 'jawboning' the market (12:58); This is partly because the Fed does a lot more communicating than it has in the past (16:40); Inflation has likely peaked and will start to slow, though not by enough to let the Fed ease rates (24:02); Background on the guest and 'origin story' for Invictus Research (26:54); What part of the business cycle are we in now? (33:23); What does that mean for asset classes? (35:34); ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) "has been a terrific place to look for shorts -- quick discussion of Cathie Wood and her predicament" (38:03); Bonds will become an opportunity when the Fed 'breaks something' and there are indications that may be happening now (40:40); More Information on the Guest: Twitter: @InvictusMacro; Website: Invictus-Research.com.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- on April 19, 2022. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, go here or visit our Substack. Edward Olanow, portfolio manager and director of investment solutions at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to supply a surprisingly bullish outlook on the economy and on certain segments of the stock market. Content Highlights Reasons for optimism: Given the Fed and external shocks, GDP remains high and there is still a backlog of orders and millions of unfilled jobs (3:15); The Fed's talk about 0.75% interest rate hikes is "just jawboning" (5:33); The era of 'buy & hold' is over; investors need to be more nimble (8:25); The house view at Weiss is that Nasdaq stocks will have a tougher time than other segments of the market (10:40); The war in Ukraine: in all likelihood risks are localized at present, judging by gold and energy prices (14:25); Background on the guest (18:40); What are dispersion trades and how do they work? (20:34); Why this may be a good time for this strategy -- and a 'turning point' for alternatives managers in general (26:27); Where all this leaves fixed income and the bond market: Fixed-income is less forward-looking than people think... (29:55); What Olanow and Weiss monitor for inflation (32:31); For More Information: LinkedIn; Twitter: @WeissMultiStrat.

This podcast episode was made available to premium subscribers without ads or announcements on Monday, April 11, 2022. Don't be jealous of premium subscribers -- become one by signing up here. Free trials are available. Leo Schmidt of River Eddy Capital Management rejoins the podcast to discuss the coming credit crunch, its impact on stock market sectors, and where to invest to protect one's portfolio. Content Highlights So-called "unicorn" companies, or the darlings of the VC crowd, and others that cannot generate cashflow, will face a tough reckoning (3:17); Undermining this is "a complete change of psychology" in terms of velocity of money (6:27); What if the Fed reverses course? It's not so simple (8:52); Oil is a short: "Oil is the ultimate liquid commodity" but there is a place for pipeline stocks... (11:38); What stocks can thrive in this type of environment? Look first to medical company spin-offs (19:13); Another area to look: Business development companies, or BDCs. This is a risky part of the market but there is at least one BDC making first-lien loans, which are the safest part of the capital structure... (26:23); Quick epilogue on China's latest Covid lockdown. There are ways to play the move away from supply chain issues that result (35:58);

This podcast episode was recorded on April 4, 2022, and released to premium subscribers –without ads or announcements — that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our substack or supercast to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing each market day morning. Leigh Goehring, managing partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg, joins the podcast to discuss his view that most renewable energies are ineffective at reducing carbon output and pointless as investments. Content Highlights The consensus opinion is that renewable energy will solve many of the problems of CO2 production and energy needs. This is false (3:12); The "terrible energy efficiency" associated with renewables will make the world poorer (5:00); What is the problem with solar and wind and why are they so inefficient? (7:20); It's no coincidence that the energy crisis started in Germany, which is now forced to import coal (12:20); Vaclav Smil and the premise that there has never been a new technology with inferior energy efficiency that displaced the old technology (13:59); The ulterior motives behind China's green energy push (18:33); The "great hope" for a Moore's Law of wind mills and solar panels is a fallacy. Input prices have declined because energy prices have (21:05); Where does that leave electric cars? (25:00); Background on the guest (33:42); What parts of the energy industry are better targets for investment right now? Look to uranium for starters, "the perfect solution to our problems" (37:17); Copper is "the quintessential green metal" also facing a supply/demand imbalance. Also agricultural commodities, grains, fertilizers, nitrogen, and potash (41:26); Mosaic (MOS) is one of the world's largest phosphate and potash producers, and a stock the guest is particularly bullish on -- it trades at just 5x earnings versus 25x at the peak (47:07); An agricultural crisis could soon be upon us, leading to hoarding of supplies (49:58). More Information About the Guest Website: GoRozen.com; Twitter: @GoRozen; LinkedIn; Link to Goehring & Rozencwajg video on the history of energy.

This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, March 22, 2022, and released to premium subscribers --without ads or announcements -- that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our substack or supercast to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Lukasz Tomicki of LRT Capital rejoins the podcast to argue his (highly contrarian) case that inflation is due to slow and to provide stock picks that allow investors to take advantage of current dislocations in markets. Content Highlights Inflation will peak around mid-year and return to historic norms shortly thereafter (2:43); Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its impact on supply chains have certainly contributed to higher prices for commodities, but markets will adapt (7:01); Another contrarian take: The Fed will successfully manage a soft landing (8:55); "Russia is basically a gas station with nuclear weapons." The U.S. and Europe can deal without Russian imports so this shouldn't be a point of concern (14:20); Stocks of two Brazilian companies that have been beaten down but have started to rebound... (20:05); A company that has been directly impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an IT consulting firm with a large presence in Ukraine whose stock has predictably been beaten up but could offer huge returns (31:38); The most likely outcome in Ukraine is for the military situation to grind to a stalemate (35:55); A final idea: Buy the Polish stock market through the iShares MSCI Poland Capped ETF (EPOL) (39:50). More Information on the Guest Website: LRTcapital.com; Twitter: @Tomicki. Not intended as investment advice.

This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com -- claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber. Allen Bond, managing director and portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management in Lake Oswego, Ore., joins the podcast to provide some stock picks for an increasingly uncertain -- and inflationary -- time in global financial markets. Content Highlights Investors have two major issues they're grappling with right now: Ukraine and inflation (5:51); To protect against inflationary pressures, Jensen looks for businesses that have pricing power (11:11); Mastercard (MA) and TJX (TJX) are two such stocks (13:29); Background on the guest (19:36); Three additional stock ideas, starting with ADP (ADP), another company that is difficult to displace (28:54); Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), the leading provider of proxy services (35:51); Pfizer (PFE) has sold off since making Covid vaccine headlines last year, but continues to generate a ton of cash -- and put it to productive use (43:26). More Information on the Guest Website: JensenInvestment.com; LinkedIn. Not intended as investment advice.

Brent Kochuba of Spot Gamma joins the podcast to discuss his view that there will likely be an equities rally into the March 17 options expiration. This podcast was recorded Wednesday afternoon, March 9, 2022, and made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber today by visiting Contrarian.Supercast.com or our Substack. There are many benefits beyond getting podcasts a few days (or more) early and not having to deal with annoying ads or announcements. Content Highlights Stocks have been selling off with the Nasdaq now officially in a bear market. But the guest is short-term bullish for reasons that can be traced to market makers hedging counterparty risk (2:39); What about all the uncertainty with Russia-Ukraine? (5:57); Stocks are up since the start of the Russian invasion on Feb. 24, likely because markets were hedged going in due to Fed tightening concerns (9:28); What to make of the March 9 rally? A brief primer on gamma, vanna, and charm aka delta decay (11:02); Similar gamma squeezes caused rallies in the past around options expiry (15:20); Background on the guest (21:31); The hedges investors have put on ahead of the FOMC meeting next week should lead to more risk-off. The lower bound for the S&P 500 is 4,100 (24:36); Recent days have seen a change in options flow: Nvidia (NVDA) and crypto names such as Coinbase (COIN) have benefited along with Amazon (AMZN) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) (26:50); Liquidity is important and recent months have seen some of it leave the system (30:06). More Information on the Guest Website: SpotGamma.com; Twitter: @SpotGamma; YouTube: SpotGamma; Not intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions!

This podcast episode was recorded on Feb. 25 and released to premium subscribers (without ads) the following day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, visit Contrarian.Supercast.com or ContrarianPod.substack.com and sign up! Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds rejoins the podcast to discuss the stock market's latest dramatic reversal, this time over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and why investors may be a bit too bullish at present... Content Highlights How to take the huge reversal last week with Russia-Ukraine? (3:11) Every war starts with "the boys will be home by Christmas," but most tend to drag on longer than anticipated. Sometimes a lot longer... (5:13); Growth stocks have been in correction territory for some time. Are they in a bear market? Probably... (8:52); The interest rate cycle has not started tightening but inflation has the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place (15:53); Energy and energy stocks are still cheap. Then there are defense contractors. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has benefited from Russia-Ukraine and Carlisle is a holder... (21:25); Facebook aka Meta (FB) is also cheap (23:20); Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs: Dead as Disco (30:12); The aim of investing is to survive the bad times and they are "probably here" (37:18). More From the Guest Website: AcquirersFund.com; Twitter: @Greenbackd; Books: The Acquirer's Multiple and Deep Value via Amazon.

This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Feb. 9. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, visit Contrarian.Supercast.com or ContrarianPod.substack.com and sign up! Herald van der Linde, head of Asia equity strategy for HSBC in Hong Kong, joins the podcast to discuss opportunities in emerging Asia. Content Highlights Emerging markets have under-performed developed markets, including in Asia -- but this is not an entirely fair comparison (3:09); What of the premise that much of emerging Asia are simply suppliers to China and therefore dependent on that country? This too is not so simple... (6:01); Markets like Indonesia move independent of China and the U.S. With 250 million people, a growing middle class, and improved infrastructure, this is one area where there are opportunities (8:21); Financial services still have ample room to grow in the region, with large numbers of under-banked individuals. The energy sector, meanwhile, is transitioning (12:45); Background on the guest (19:26); Consumers are a growing force throughout Asia, but individual countries have vastly different spending habits. An overview (24:38); There is one country that nobody is really looking at in professional investing circles. The possibilities are enormous. That country is Bangladesh (31:55). More Information on the Guest Book: Asia's Stock Market from the Ground Up available on GoodReads, Amazon.com also in Kindle edition, and elsewhere; Twitter: @HeraldLinde; LinkedIn.

This episode was recorded on Jan. 27 and aired for premium subscribers on Feb. 2, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. Dave Fishwick joins the podcast to make the argument for investing in the Turkish lira after it dropped half its value versus major currencies. The appeal is not just the value but the carry, resulting in the equivalent of 30% to 40% annual interest income. To Fishwick and his team, the trade is not only contrarian but an example of the type of idiosyncratic idea that has no correlation to other parts of the portfolio. The conversation is not limited to Turkey but expands to the U.S., China, and other emerging markets during the second half of the episode. (This podcast was recorded in person at the iConnections conference in Miami. The acoustics were not ideal and there is some background noise as a result. Apologies for the inconvenience.) Content Highlights The macroeconomic policy experiment in Turkey, where the country's central bank took the highly unorthodox step of combating a sovereign crisis by reducing interest rates. The Turkish lira went into freefall as a result (2:24); The lira looks attractive on a real basis, but the real appeal comes in the so-called carry, an often-forgotten part of foreign exchange markets. How this works (3:29); Some background on the strategy by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, which is on the surface frightening. But therein lies the appeal (5:22); Why buy the Turkish lira when the CBRT is cutting rates while the Fed is raising rates? (11:07); If the CBRT succeeds with this experiment, could other emerging market countries follow its example? The strategy is not unprecedented... (13:15); Background on the guest (16:19); Fishwick's view on current markets. The market has re-rated asset classes, despite upbeat economic news (18:43); The present situation may appear bizarre, but it not without parallel. Why it's hard to be bearish for the longer-term (21:48); Other areas of the world that are interesting for investors, especially contrarians (24:11); There are "some similarities" with what happened the last time the Fed entered on a sustained interest hiking campaign (2004 to 2007), but many differences. The key? Watch the inflation data, though the Fed's record on engineering soft landings is poor (27:05). More Information on the Guest Website: MandG.com; LinkedIn.

This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Jan. 18, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. Alex Morris of The Science of Hitting Investment Research joins the podcast to discuss his views of markets, asset allocation, and a couple of stocks he is particularly bullish on at present. The conversation also includes a discussion of the just-announced buyout of Activision (ATVI) by Microsoft (MSFT). (The host has a bit of a throat issue and is hoarse for this recording. Apologies for the inconvenience.) Content Highlights Thinking about asset allocation in a structural manner -- with 90% or more invested in equities (3:32); How then to invest the equity portion? The first filter is business quality (7:43); Disney (DIS) has been one of Alex's favorite stocks for some time with Netflix (NFLX) a more recent favorite (12:26); Background on the guest (22:18); Other portfolio holdings and the Microsoft-Activision (ATVI) deal. Full disclosure: ATVI is/was part of the Contrarian Investor's portfolio for reasons that are briefly discussed (27:31); Could Facebook (FB) be forced to spin off any of its holdings? (32:20); When to sell a stock (36:18); Lastly a short discussion about our favorite soccer/football team (38:50). More on the Guest Website: TheScienceOfHitting.com; Twitter: @TSOH_Investing.

This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount! This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Jan. 13, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. James Fok joins the podcast to discuss his book 'Financial Cold War: A View of Sino-US Relations from the Financial Markets'. In Fok's view, the fates of China and the U.S. are highly intertwined, and neither country's leaders want the conflict to escalate -- but that could easily change. Content Highlights How the financial cold war is defined, some of the ways it is already impacting society and economics, and the risks of greater conflicts (3:06); Is military conflict between the U.S. and China inevitable? (4:49); The fates of the two countries are highly intertwined but the U.S. dollar and global monetary system have exacerbated imbalances (7:46); Why the belief that the USD's global role is good for the U.S. is a fallacy (11:02); The world needs to become less USD-denominated if the financial Cold War is going to be resolved. There is precedence for this (18:00); Background on the guest (30:00); The state of China's economy and where it's headed (33:44); China's economic problems are clear for all to see, but the social implications are probably being significantly underestimated (36:49). More Information on the Guest Website: JamesAFok.com; Book: Financial Cold War.

This podcast episode was recorded on Jan. 5 and released to premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. To learn about becoming a premium subscriber, go here. Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his 2022 outlook for the economy and markets. He is broadly optimistic on the former, but less enthusiastic about the latter -- at least in the first half of the year -- with strong possibility of 'uncertainty shocks,' especially around Fed events (sound familiar?) There is also some interesting discussion around interest rates, inflation, and China, among others. Content Highlights (Spotify users can link to the start of the section by clicking on the timestamp) A lot has changed in a year, though probably nothing quite as much as the inflation outlook (3:04); Markets and economics should diverge significantly in the first half of the year (4:51); The Federal Reserve is due to embark on a rate-tightening cycle, which should be negative for markets but will be net-neutral, or perhaps even positive for the economy (8:00); Inflation is running hot, but the guest has done some deep research on similar historical epochs and finds the concern less pressing than most (17:20); The key level for inflation is 4% -- if the CPI exceeds it consistently there could be trouble. Link to the Fed paper referenced here (21:33); Still, there is a strong possibility for 'uncertainty shocks' in the first half of the year (29:52); Finally, China: Reasons to be bearish. Very bearish (34:58). More Information on the Guest Website: IronsidesMacro.com; Newsletter: IronsidesMacro.Substack.com; Twitter: @BarryKnapp.

This podcast episode was recorded on Dec. 15 and released to premium subscribers that same day without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this benefit and a host of other services (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast released each market day morning) go to ContrarianPod.substack.com or Contrarian.Supercast.tech to subscribe. There is a special 40% year-end discount on new memberships through Dec. 31! Ryan Worch of Worch Capital rejoins the podcast to provide his outlook on stocks for 2022. Spoiler alert: He's bullish. With certain qualifications. Worch mentions specific securities in the latter half of the episode. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Content Highlights Worch's contrarian call: We're still in a secular bull market (4:14); Underneath the surface there has been "some very real destruction in the speculative part of the markets." Why this is happening (6:05); Is there any hopes for the Cathie Wood names, meme stocks, cryptos, and NFTs? (9:25); Many people are bearish. Too many (15:33); How Worch Capital is positioning its portfolio and some favorite names (20:45); A brief discussion about inflation (28:09). More Information on the Guest Website: WorchCapital.com; Twitter: @WorchCapital.

This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Dec. 2, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. This episode uses mature language. Discretion is advised for listeners that may be sensitive to this type of thing. Enrique Abeyta of Empire Financial Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the omicron strain of Covid-19 and inflation, and share his excitement about the metaverse. Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, could become the world's first $5 trillion enterprise. Not intended as investment advice. Content Highlights The market didn't go down because of omicron or because of what the Fed chair said. What caused the selling instead (5:09); Omicron is not the first Covid strain. It won't be the last. Society and the economy have been able to deal with the variants (6:28); Inflation is another boogey man (8:10); The spike in the VIX is more noteworthy -- and a bullish indicator for stocks (12:39); What about gold? (16:56); The metaverse: It's already here. People just don't realize it yet (24:07); Meta, the stock formerly known as Facebook, is as good a way as any to profit from these developments (27:29); Oil and gas "could go to the moon" (39:52). More Information on the Guest Website: EmpireFinancialResearch.com; Twitter: @EnriqueAbeyta; Everything about HardMoneyMag.

This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount! This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Nov. 11, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. Emma Muhleman of Ascend Investment Management joins the podcast to make the contrarian argument that inflation is overrated, will not cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and that deflationary forces are the bigger worry for global financial markets. These deflationary forces are both short term (slowdown in China) and long term (demographics in the developed world). Much of the discussion centers around the former. Muhleman's comments are her own and not a reflection of her employer. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Content Highlights (Spotify listeners can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment) The market is pricing in a series of interest rate hikes for the coming 24 months. But the Fed has backed off of a tightening schedule before (2:18); Bonds have been selling off, but investors will find themselves on the wrong side of this trade when Fed backs off of tapering (4:07); Inflation is a supply-side problem that the Fed doesn't have control of. Markets are too fragile to handle rate hikes (5:06); The latest FOMC meeting where tapering was announced "was probably the most dovish taper you could come up with" (9:20); Deflationary forces, starting with China, are a major issue the market is overlooking. This despite the best (non-publicized) efforts by the Chinese government (10:49); It's not just China though; demographics and debt are part of the longer-term trend toward deflation (19:19); Background on the guest (22:33); What about potential headwinds, from China or elsewhere? (24:58); Unwinding Evergrande: Where is the exposure? (29:05); How much longer can the Fed taper before their hand is forced to back off? (31:17); What indicators should investors keep an eye on to monitor this situation? (34:35). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @Emma_cfa; LinkedIn. mployer. Nothing here is intended as investment advice.

This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount! This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Nov. 4, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. Note: The aforementioned service has nothing to do with David Hunter's newsletter. Individuals interested in finding out more about that service should contact David directly by Twitter direct message. David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to provide updates on his prediction that stock markets are in the final stage of a parabolic melt-up that will be followed by a global bust. Hunter's initial targets for the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and other U.S. stock market indexes have been breached, causing him to provide new, even more bullish, targets. The bust will likely start with a 'second-quarter swoon' next year, caused by the Federal Reserve overreacting to inflation. The deflationary meltdown will then cause another overreaction by central banks and government fiscal policies. Not intended as investment advice. Content Highlights (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment in question) Hunter's new targets on the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 (2:50); Oil and oil stocks have peaked for this cycle (6:50); The bust should happen about mid-way through 2022 and result in oil prices back in the mid-$20s range (8:25); The cycle will end because the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates due to inflationary pressures (10:28); Central banks around the world are withdrawing quantitative easing and some have even started to adjust interest rates higher. This will affect things and force the Fed's hand. Resolution of supply chain issues would increase the pressure (15:54); China will definitely play a major role in the bust, though Evergrande is probably just the tip of the iceberg (19:27); What happens after the bust is an unprecedented flow of liquidity. Yes, even more than COVID. There will be bank failures, though more in Europe and Asia than the U.S. (21:17); Central banks only have one tool to combat this, which is quantitative easing. They will be matched by fiscal stimulus. It will be "March of 2020 on steroids, basically. Multiple steroids" (26:07). More Information on the Guest Twitter: @DaveHContrarian (send him a direct message if you are interested in finding out more about his service).