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The Circuit

The Circuit

184 episodes — Page 2 of 4

Ep 134EP 133: Broadcom Earnings, More on ASICS vs. GPUs, Google Selling TPUs?

Ben and Jay unpack why Broadcom’s “fourth customer” (~$10B) custom-ASIC win reset sentiment even after a modest beat/raise, and how that squares with hyperscalers second-sourcing away from NVIDIA in the near term. They frame the true battleground as networking—Ethernet’s ubiquity vs. NVLink’s tight integration—then differentiate GPUs’ performance-per-watt advantages from custom ASIC cost calculus, arguing that “lumpiness” (program outcomes) is not “cyclicality” (inventory swings). They stress TAM realism: it’s easy to total up CapEx, but the ROI numerator (revenue/profit) is still unknowable. Structurally, TSMC remains the default winner, with a plausible Intel Foundry financing path in the wings, while Google looks more likely to “sell capacity” for TPUs than chips. Net: GPUs keep the bulk of spend through 2030 even as select first-party silicon scales, and the market should judge claims against networking choices and workload fit—not headlines.

Sep 8, 202543 min

Ep 133EP 132: NVIDIA Earnings + Ben's Thesis Time and Those Lumpy ASICs

In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent earnings reports of Nvidia and Marvell, focusing on the implications for the AI market and the challenges posed by geopolitical factors, particularly regarding China. They analyze Nvidia's growth projections, the complexities of ASICs, and the competitive landscape for AI servers, particularly highlighting Dell's position in the market. The discussion also touches on the nuances of CapEx spending and the importance of clear communication from companies to investors.

Aug 31, 202554 min

Ep 132EP 132: Offical Gov. Stake in Intel, NVIDIA's New Scale Across Fabric, NVIDIA Earnings Preview

In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent government investment in Intel, its implications for the semiconductor industry, and the competitive landscape of Nvidia's new technology. They explore the future of Intel, the challenges it faces in securing customers, and the significance of Nvidia's Spectrum XGS Ethernet announcement. The discussion also touches on the state of the analog devices market and anticipates Nvidia's upcoming earnings call, highlighting key areas of interest and potential impacts on the industry.TakeawaysThe U.S. government now owns 10% of Intel, signaling confidence in the company.The investment is part of a broader strategy to support semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S.Intel's future hinges on securing customers and government support.Nvidia's Spectrum XGS Ethernet allows for distributed GPU clusters across locations.The competitive landscape is shifting, with Nvidia targeting Broadcom and Huawei.Analog devices are seeing mixed signals in the market, particularly in automotive.Robotics is an emerging area for analog devices, but still faces challenges.Nvidia's upcoming earnings call is highly anticipated, with expectations of strong demand.The relationship between the U.S. and China is affecting tech investments and sales.The need for a strong board and expertise in manufacturing is crucial for Intel's success.

Aug 24, 202547 min

Ep 131EP 131: NVIDIA/AMD Export Tax Unconstitutional? AMAT Earnings, Talking NeoClouds, Another Week for Intel!

In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss various topics related to the semiconductor industry, including the implications of new regulations on companies like AMD and Nvidia, the challenges faced by cloud computing providers, the market dynamics affecting Applied Materials, and the potential government involvement in Intel's future. They explore the complexities of profitability, market competition, and the evolving landscape of technology and regulation.TakeawaysNew regulations on semiconductors may be unconstitutional but are unlikely to be challenged.Profitability concerns overshadow the earnings of cloud computing companies.Demand for GPU compute is high, but electricity constraints limit growth.Applied Materials faces uncertainty due to vague guidance and market dynamics.Government involvement in Intel could complicate the free market.The distinction between ownership and governance is crucial in state-owned enterprises.The future of AI and cloud computing is tied to infrastructure and capacity.Investors are skeptical about the viability of Neo cloud models.The semiconductor industry is navigating a complex regulatory environment.

Aug 17, 202545 min

Ep 130EP 130: AMD Earnings Insights, AI Networking The New (not so new) Hot Segment, GPT 5!

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the latest earnings from AMD, highlighting their strong performance amidst market fluctuations and concerns about competition in the AI space. They delve into the growing importance of AI networking solutions and the recent release of OpenAI's open-source models, including GPT-5, which introduces a more collaborative approach to AI interactions. The conversation also touches on the uncertain future of AI and the challenges faced by Intel, concluding with a reflection on the evolving landscape of technology and its implications for the market.

Aug 11, 202550 min

Ep 129EP 129: Capex to the Moon 2.0! Bubble Debate, and QCOM and Arm Earnings

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the latest earnings reports from major tech companies, exploring themes of market dynamics, investment in AI, and the implications of CapEx spending. They delve into the concept of whether we are in a bubble, the challenges of monetizing AI, and the competitive landscape among tech giants like Google, Meta, and Amazon. The conversation also touches on the potential disruption from Apple in the search market, the role of Nvidia in AI, and the future of companies like Qualcomm and Arm in a rapidly evolving tech environment.

Aug 4, 202557 min

Ep 128EP:127 Intel Earnings, Exploring the Possible Scenario of a TSMC Monopoly

The conversation explores the implications of a potential TSMC monopoly in the semiconductor industry, discussing the risks it poses to pricing, innovation, and competition. The speakers emphasize the need for strategic decisions among semiconductor companies and the importance of considering commercial solutions to mitigate the risks associated with a monopoly.

Jul 28, 202531 min

Ep 127EP: 126 NVIDIA/AMD Back in China! TSMC Earnings, and Agentic AI Causes Total Infra Upgrade

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent developments in the AI and semiconductor industries, focusing on Nvidia and AMD's approval to sell modified chipsets to China, the political dynamics influencing these decisions, and the competitive landscape with Huawei. They also analyze TSMC's earnings, the need for infrastructure upgrades to support AI agents, and the implications of Synopsys' acquisition of Ansys. The conversation concludes with a look at Marvell's leadership change and its potential impact on the industry.

Jul 21, 202545 min

Ep 126EP 125: What's Going on with RISC-V? Update on Intel, Everything is AI!

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent developments in the RISC-V ecosystem, including Global Foundries' acquisition of MIPS and the implications for the semiconductor industry. They also delve into Intel's challenges with its manufacturing processes and the shifting landscape of AI, highlighting the potential for both growth and caution in the current market dynamics.

Jul 14, 202538 min

Ep 125Episode 124: The State of The Japanese Semiconductor Industry

In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Professor John Metzler discuss the current state and future prospects of the Japanese semiconductor industry, focusing on key players like TSMC and Rapidus. They explore insights from Metzler's recent trips to Japan, the challenges of talent acquisition, and the broader implications for global semiconductor competition. The discussion highlights the unique approaches being taken in Japan, including the integration of AI and photonics, and the importance of a sustainable business model for new ventures in the semiconductor space.

Jul 1, 202543 min

Ep 124EP 123: Marvell ASIC TAM, ASIC Challenges Remain, More Semi 2.0

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent Marvell custom semiconductor event, the challenges faced in the custom chip business, and the evolving role of hyperscalers in chip design. They explore the future of ASICs versus GPUs, the growth trajectory of the semiconductor industry, and the impact of software on compute needs. The conversation also delves into chip design innovations, particularly the rise of chiplets, and the changing economics of semiconductor manufacturing.

Jun 23, 202540 min

Ep 123Episode 122: Apple's WWDC, AMD AI Event, Semiconductors 2.0

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent developments in the tech industry, focusing on Apple's WWDC and AMD's product roadmap. They explore Apple's integration of AI into its operating system and the implications for developers, as well as AMD's performance and its competitive stance against Nvidia. The conversation also highlights the importance of networking in AI infrastructure and the evolving business models in the AI space.

Jun 16, 202537 min

Ep 122Episode 121: Stop Talking about SAM Please

In this episode, Ben and Jay discuss the latest developments in the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on Broadcom's earnings and the implications of AI on the market. They explore the growth of the semiconductor segment, the challenges in ASIC development, and the innovations in networking with the introduction of Tomahawk 6. The conversation also highlights the increasing importance of storage solutions in AI applications and anticipates upcoming events in the tech world.

Jun 9, 202530 min

Ep 121Episode 120: NVIDIA Earnings, The Future of AI inference, China AI and more

In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Austin Lyons discuss Nvidia's recent earnings report, the future of AI and inference, and the dynamics of the AI market, including the impact of China on Nvidia's revenue. They explore the differences between consumer and enterprise workloads, the role of financing in AI server sales, and the challenges of realizing ROI from AI investments. The discussion also touches on real-world applications of AI in business and the future of AI integration in consumer products.

Jun 2, 202543 min

Ep 120Episode 119: Computex, Google I/O, Dell Tech World, and more

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the major highlights from Computex, including the dominance of AI, NVIDIA's strategic positioning, and the implications of geopolitical factors on the tech industry. They also delve into Google's recent innovations at I/O, the challenges of monetizing AI, and the evolving landscape of consumer AI experiences. The conversation wraps up with insights on edge computing and the competitive dynamics in China's AI market.

May 27, 202537 min

Ep 119Episode 118: Weekly Update (Tariffs), AI Budget Spend, Semis and Saudi's

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the current state of the semiconductor industry, focusing on tariffs, AI budgets, and advancements in technology. They explore the implications of recent tariff discussions, the impact on supply chains, and the ongoing investment in AI infrastructure, particularly in Saudi Arabia. The conversation also highlights the evolution of AI factories and the need for localized infrastructure to meet national security and data sovereignty concerns.

May 19, 202532 min

Ep 118Episode 117: Talking Apple in China with Patrick McGee

In this episode, Ben and Jay welcome Patrick McGee, author of 'Apple in China', who discusses his extensive research on Apple's relationship with China. The conversation explores how Apple's investments and manufacturing strategies have significantly influenced China's technological landscape, as well as the cultural impact of Apple products in China. Patrick shares insights from his book, detailing the evolution of Apple's supply chain and the pivotal role of Foxconn in Apple's success. In this conversation, Patrick McGee discusses the intricate relationship between Apple and its supply chain, particularly focusing on Foxconn and Chinese manufacturers. He highlights how Apple's business model has influenced the manufacturing landscape in China, the challenges of replicating this model elsewhere, and the critical role of TSMC in Apple's operations. The discussion also touches on the implications of IP transfer and the impact of Tesla in the EV industry, showcasing the broader effects of Apple's strategies on global manufacturing and economics.

May 12, 202546 min

Ep 117Episode 116: Earnings (AAPL, QCOM), Intel's Chiplet Bet, AI Factory Thesis

In this episode, Ben and Jay discuss the latest earnings reports from Apple and Qualcomm, focusing on the implications of tariffs, supply chain resilience, and the shifting landscape of semiconductor manufacturing. They explore Apple's confidence in its business despite uncertainties, the significant manufacturing shift to India, and Qualcomm's diversification strategy in the IoT and automotive sectors. The conversation highlights the challenges and opportunities both companies face in a rapidly evolving market. In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Ben discuss the current state of the semiconductor industry, focusing on cost management strategies, Intel's advancements in foundry technology, and the competitive landscape with TSMC. They explore the implications of new technologies like Power Via and the shift towards chiplet architecture. Additionally, they delve into the concept of AI factories and how they represent a new approach to data center infrastructure, transforming it from a cost center to a profit center.

May 6, 202552 min

Ep 116Episode 115: Intel Earnings, TSMC Symposium, Tariff Updates...

In this episode, Ben and Jay discuss Intel's recent earnings report, the implications of leadership changes, and the market's reaction. They delve into the challenges of workforce reductions, the need for cultural shifts within the company, and the importance of empowering engineers. The conversation also covers Intel's AI strategy, foundry developments, and the impact of global tariffs on the semiconductor industry.

Apr 28, 202538 min

Ep 115Episode 114: More Semi Tariff Chaos, Lip Bu's Plan, TSMC Earnings

In this episode, Ben and Jay discuss the current state of the semiconductor market, focusing on the impact of tariffs, the upcoming earnings season, and the potential for sector rotation amidst economic uncertainty. They explore how companies are navigating these challenges, particularly in relation to AI demand and capital expenditures, while also considering Nvidia's position in the market. In this conversation, Ben and Jay discuss the implications of tariffs on various sectors, particularly focusing on AI and the analog chip industry. They explore how supply chains may need to adapt to new tariff regulations and the potential impact on consumer electronics prices. The discussion also delves into Intel's organizational changes and the anxiety surrounding potential layoffs, as well as TSMC's earnings and its position in the semiconductor market amidst changing demand dynamics.

Apr 21, 202545 min

Ep 114Episode 113: Talking DSPs with CEVA CEO Amir Panush

In this conversation, Jay Goldberg interviews Amir Panoush, CEO of CEVA, discussing the evolution of the company, its role in the semiconductor industry, and the importance of digital signal processing (DSP) technology. They explore Siva's market segments, customer base, and the company's value proposition compared to competitors like ARM. The discussion also covers the integration of AI at the edge, new customer partnerships, and the emerging satellite market. Amir shares insights on management strategies in an IP-focused company and outlines future directions for CEVA.

Apr 14, 202538 min

Ep 113Episode 112: Talking x86 and Intel's Future With Intel Product CEO Michelle Johnston

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg are joined by special guest Michelle Johnston, CEO of Intel products. They discuss the new culture shift at Intel, how Intel can use this new approach to compete and innovate in AI, how to invigorate x86 and Intel Architecture, and the opportunity for both product and foundry in the chiplet era.

Apr 7, 202528 min

Ep 112Episode 111: Talking Chips and Wafers with Chips and Wafers

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg engage with Simi Sherman and Chaim Eisenberg from Chips and Wafers to explore the intricacies of the semiconductor industry. They discuss the importance of both qualitative and quantitative analysis in understanding market trends, the challenges of data collection, and the unique insights their company provides. The conversation delves into the competitive landscape of ASICs versus GPUs, the significance of tracking various data points, and how this information can be leveraged for predictive analysis in investments. In this conversation, Simi Sherman and Ben Bajarin delve into the intricacies of investment data, emphasizing the importance of using the right data points for informed decision-making. They discuss specific company examples, the predictive power of data, and the evolving landscape of the semiconductor industry, particularly the shift towards disaggregated designs and chiplets. The conversation highlights the gap between investor expectations and company performance, and concludes with insights into how analysts can leverage data to build a clearer picture of future trends.

Mar 31, 202555 min

Ep 111Episode 110: NVIDIA's Identity Crisis

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent GTC event, highlighting its shift from graphics technology to a focus on AI and robotics. They share their emotional responses to the keynote, the crowded atmosphere, and their disillusionment with the lack of new AI demos. The conversation delves into Jensen Huang's defensive stance during the keynote, Nvidia's identity crisis, and the company's significant investments in R&D. They conclude by reflecting on the growing influence of GTC and its importance in the tech industry.

Mar 24, 202541 min

Ep 110Episode 109: Unpacking the Nuances of Deep Seek with Austin Lyons

In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Austin Lyons delve into the emergence of Deep Seek, an AI lab that has gained attention for its innovative models and unique approach to AI development. They discuss the origins of Deep Seek, its self-funded nature, and the implications of its advancements in the context of geopolitical constraints. The conversation highlights the lab's offerings, including its reasoning models and mixture of experts, and explores how Deep Seek has managed to innovate despite hardware limitations. The discussion also touches on the future of AI scaling and the ongoing debate about the effectiveness of simply increasing computational resources. In this conversation, Austin Lyons and Jay Goldberg discuss the advancements in AI, particularly focusing on Deep Seek's contributions to scaling AI models, improving training efficiency, and the implications of these innovations on the market dynamics. They explore how Deep Seek has demonstrated that there are still many avenues for enhancing AI capabilities, despite the prevailing belief that the field has plateaued. The discussion also delves into the technical aspects of training and inference efficiency, the challenges faced by AI labs, and the importance of hardware optimization. Ultimately, they conclude that while Deep Seek is making significant strides, it does not pose a direct threat to established players like OpenAI.

Mar 16, 202548 min

Ep 109Episode 108: MWC Observations, MRVL and AVGO Earnings, Apple's new Devices

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona, reflecting on its relevance in the current tech landscape, particularly in the telecom and semiconductor industries. They explore the shift in focus from traditional mobile technologies to AI and data centers, the challenges faced by telecom operators, and the evolving role of software in the industry. The conversation also touches on Qualcomm's positioning, the dynamics of network processors, and humorous observations about the latest innovations, including humanoid robots and AI avatars. Finally, they tease an upcoming discussion about Apple's modem technology and its implications for the market. In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent earnings reports of Marvell and Broadcom, analyzing the competitive dynamics in the semiconductor market. They delve into Marvell's challenges with customer relationships and market positioning, contrasting it with Broadcom's strategic advantages. The discussion also touches on the implications of Apple's product updates and the overall market sentiment regarding capital expenditures and technology investments.

Mar 10, 202546 min

Ep 108Episode 107: NVIDIA Earnings and Peak Nvidia? (Sentiment Wise)

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss Nvidia's recent earnings report, market reactions, and the implications for the future of AI and the company's stock performance. They analyze the current state of Nvidia's business, including product segmentation, enterprise demand, and geopolitical factors affecting the market. The conversation also touches on the volatility of Nvidia's stock and the behavior of retail investors in the context of AI advancements.

Mar 2, 202537 min

Ep 107Episode 106: Apple C1 Modem! More Intel Rumors (FUD!) Previewing Nvidia Earnings

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss Apple's recent announcement of their C1 modem and the new iPhone 16E. They explore the implications of Apple's entry into modem technology, the positioning of the iPhone 16E in the market, and the potential impact on Qualcomm. The conversation also delves into the integration of modem technology within Apple's ecosystem and the future of 5G in Apple's products. In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin discuss the strategic moves of major tech companies like Apple and Broadcom, the ongoing challenges faced by Intel, and the implications of government intervention in the semiconductor industry. They also delve into the current state of the AI market, particularly focusing on Microsoft and Nvidia, and speculate on future earnings and market dynamics.

Feb 24, 202542 min

Ep 106Episode 105: Sanity Check on Custom ASICS?

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg delve into the ongoing debate between ASICs and GPUs in the AI compute landscape, discussing the implications for companies like NVIDIA and AMD. They explore the role of custom silicon in hyperscalers' strategies and the potential for GPUs to regain market share. The conversation then shifts to the often-overlooked world of analog semiconductors, highlighting their significance in various applications, including automotive and robotics. The hosts emphasize the need for a deeper understanding of analog technology as it becomes increasingly relevant in the evolving tech landscape.

Feb 17, 202541 min

Ep 105Episode 104: Earnings Thoughts (QCOM, AMD, Arm) and Hypersaler CapEx Steady

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent earnings reports of Qualcomm, AMD, and Arm, analyzing the surprising market reactions and investor expectations. They delve into Qualcomm's strong quarter but puzzling stock performance, AMD's ongoing struggle to establish itself in the AI market, and Arm's critical yet underappreciated role in the AI ecosystem. The conversation highlights the shifting dynamics in technology investments and the challenges companies face in meeting heightened investor expectations. In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the complexities surrounding Arm's intellectual property (IP) and its market dynamics, the confusion in revenue metrics, and the expectations investors have regarding growth. They delve into the trends in capital expenditures (CapEx) among major tech companies and the dual nature of cloud revenue, distinguishing between traditional cloud services and emerging AI workloads. The discussion also highlights the critical role NVIDIA plays in the AI market and the challenges it faces in meeting demand.

Feb 10, 202544 min

Ep 104Episode 103: Earnings - MSFT, META, AAPL, INTC - The Custom ASIC Debate!

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the latest earnings reports from major tech companies, focusing on their strategies related to AI and the semiconductor industry. They analyze Microsoft's approach to AI, Meta's success in monetizing AI, Apple's challenges in the current market, and Intel's uncertain position in the semiconductor landscape. The conversation highlights the ongoing evolution of AI and its implications for these companies' futures. In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin discuss Intel's recent earnings report, highlighting mixed results and ongoing challenges within the company. They delve into the implications of the CEO search, investor sentiment, and the strategic direction Intel must take moving forward, particularly in the context of AI and CPU innovation. The discussion emphasizes the need for a clear strategy and the importance of focusing on core competencies to navigate the competitive landscape.

Feb 3, 202555 min

Ep 103Episode 102: Deeeeeepseeeeeeek!

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent market reactions to DeepSeek's AI model, its implications for the AI landscape, and the future of AI infrastructure investments. They explore the efficiency of DeepSeek's training methods, the skepticism surrounding AI valuations, and the potential of ambient agents in AI development. The conversation highlights the complexities of AI technology and the uncertainty in predicting its future applications.

Jan 27, 202542 min

Ep 102Episode 101 Part 2: Digging into TSMC Earnings

In part two of this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss TSMC's recent quarterly performance, highlighting its strong growth driven by AI and changing dynamics in chip manufacturing. They explore the implications of AI on TSMC's business model, the challenges faced by NVIDIA in data center transitions, and the future of ASICs and custom chips. The discussion also touches on Intel's relationship with TSMC, the impact of edge AI, and ongoing acquisition rumors in the semiconductor industry.

Jan 20, 202530 min

Ep 101Episode 101 Part 1: Discussion with Jordan Schneider (ChinaTalk) on New Semi Regulations

In this episode of The Circuit, hosts Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg welcome Jordan Schneider, founder of China Talk, to discuss the evolving landscape of US-China technology relations, particularly focusing on semiconductor restrictions. Schneider provides insights into the recent regulations imposed by the Biden administration, the motivations behind these changes, and the potential effectiveness of these measures in slowing down China's technological advancements. The conversation also explores the challenges and workarounds that Chinese companies may employ to navigate these restrictions, as well as the implications for the future of AI and semiconductor innovation. In this conversation, the speakers discuss the evolving landscape of AI technology, focusing on the competition between the US and China, the implications of hardware and software advancements, and the regulatory challenges faced by companies like Nvidia. They explore the potential for new technological paradigms and the impact of corporate pushback against AI regulations, while also considering the future dynamics of AI on a global scale.

Jan 20, 202543 min

Ep 100Episode 100: CES 2025 - Applied AI, Applied Robotics, AR/MR Tipping Point

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg reflect on their experiences at CES, discussing the varying levels of AI integration and the prevalence of AI washing. They explore the future of robotics, emphasizing a turning point in humanoid robotics and the potential for AI to enhance these technologies. The conversation shifts to the advancements in AR/VR technologies, highlighting the impact of the Chinese ecosystem on innovation and affordability. Finally, they delve into the semiconductor investment landscape, stressing the importance of technical understanding in evaluating companies within this sector.

Jan 14, 202542 min

Ep 99Episode 99: Semis Outlook for 2025 - Bullishness Remains

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss their predictions for 2025, focusing on market trends, investment strategies, and the impact of AI on various sectors. They explore the implications of the upcoming Consumer Electronics Show (CES), the potential for growth in semiconductor stocks, and the importance of software revenue in AI deployments. The conversation also touches on consumer electronics trends, the future of AR glasses, and the aerospace and military spending landscape. Finally, they speculate on the likelihood of a foldable iPhone release in the near future.

Jan 5, 202542 min

Ep 98Episode 98: 2024 Semi Recap and Outlook Into 2025

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the current state of the semiconductor market as they transition from 2024 to 2025. They analyze Nvidia's growth trajectory, the challenges faced by AMD and Intel, and the performance of other key players like Apple and Broadcom. The conversation also touches on the impact of AI on the semiconductor industry, the role of custom ASICs versus GPUs, and the future of cloud software in relation to hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google. The hosts provide insights into market trends and expectations for the upcoming year, emphasizing the importance of understanding the evolving landscape of technology and investment opportunities.

Dec 21, 202436 min

Ep 97Episode 97: Accellerated Infrastructure - Marvell Analyst Day, Broadcomm Earnings - Infra!!

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent Marvell Industry Analyst Day, focusing on the concept of accelerated infrastructure in data centers, the competitive landscape with Broadcom, and the significance of custom HBM in AI silicon. They explore how Marvell is positioning itself as a data center company and the implications of custom solutions in the evolving semiconductor industry. The conversation also touches on Nvidia's dominance and the future of data centers, emphasizing the need for optimization and the potential for a shift back to more affordable solutions. In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent developments surrounding Broadcom, particularly its stock surge attributed to optimism in AI. They delve into the company's market position, the significance of data center design, and the distinction between Total Addressable Market (TAM) and Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM). The discussion also covers the critical role of networking in AI, the rise of million-node data centers, and Broadcom's strategy regarding M&A and custom silicon. The conversation highlights the evolving landscape of AI and the competitive dynamics between major players in the industry.

Dec 13, 202451 min

Ep 96Episode 96: The State of Intel Post Pat G, Product Roadmap focus, Foundries Strategic Value

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the unexpected retirement of Pat Gelsinger from Intel and its implications for the company's future. They explore the strategic direction Intel may take post-Gelsinger, the challenges of leadership transition, and the importance of product focus versus foundry operations. The conversation delves into the need for a growth strategy in a competitive landscape and the potential paths forward for Intel as it navigates these changes. In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin discuss the current state and future of Intel, focusing on its CPU market position, the challenges it faces with its Foundry strategy, and the implications of TSMC's market power. They explore the sentiment surrounding Intel, the role of the board in shaping its future, and the technological optimism tied to upcoming products. The discussion highlights the need for competitive foundries in the semiconductor industry and the potential consequences of TSMC's dominance.

Dec 6, 202446 min

Ep 95Episode 95: QCOM Financial Investor Day, and NVIDA Earnings (age of Nvidia is over)

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss Qualcomm's recent Analyst Day and NVIDIA's earnings report. They analyze Qualcomm's shift towards becoming a compute-centric company, the challenges in the smartphone market, and the potential growth in automotive and IoT sectors. The conversation then shifts to NVIDIA, where they explore the implications of its recent earnings, the end of its rapid growth phase, and the competitive landscape in inference technology. The hosts emphasize the importance of execution for Qualcomm and the evolving dynamics in the semiconductor industry.

Nov 25, 202440 min

Ep 94Episode 94: Chatting Apple Silicon with Apple's Tim Millet and Tom Boger

In this enlightening conversation, Ben Bajarin hosts Apple executives Tom Boger and Tim Millet to discuss the significance of Apple Silicon in the company's product ecosystem. They delve into the relentless pursuit of performance per watt, the integration of hardware and software, and Apple's unique approach to AI and on-device intelligence. The discussion also covers how Apple manages to push performance boundaries in a landscape where Moore's Law is slowing down, emphasizing the importance of architecture, design, and technology in their strategy.

Nov 18, 202435 min

Ep 93Episode 93: Arm/QCOM Earnings, Trump Presidency Impact on Semis, NVDA Preview

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss recent earnings reports from Arm and Qualcomm, analyzing market reactions and the implications of ongoing lawsuits. They delve into Qualcomm's diversification strategy, particularly in the automotive sector, and the potential impact of political changes on semiconductor policy. The conversation also touches on Nvidia's strong demand and supply constraints, highlighting the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry and the challenges ahead.

Nov 11, 202437 min

Ep 92Episode 92: Another week in Semi's Earnings. -AMD, Intel, Capex growth in Cloud

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the latest earnings reports from AMD and Intel, focusing on market expectations, performance, and the challenges faced by both companies. They analyze AMD's struggle to meet high investor expectations in the AI market and Intel's ongoing turnaround efforts under CEO Pat Gelsinger, highlighting the balance between financial prudence and technological leadership. The conversation also touches on the mixed reactions from the market regarding Intel's recent earnings and the implications for its future. In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin discuss Intel's recent financial strategies, particularly focusing on their gross margins and the implications of their decisions. They delve into the cultural challenges within Intel that may affect its future, and explore the dynamics of the mobile technology market, including the performance of companies like MediaTek, Corvo, and Qualcomm.

Nov 4, 202444 min

Ep 91Episode 91: Thoughts on: Snapdragon Summit, Arm v. QCOM, RISC-V Summit

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the Qualcomm Snapdragon Summit, highlighting the company's return to custom cores, advancements in AI integration, and innovations in automotive technology. They also delve into the competitive landscape of automotive software, Qualcomm's branding evolution, and the ongoing legal drama with ARM regarding licensing issues. The conversation provides insights into the semiconductor industry and Qualcomm's strategic positioning in the market. In this conversation, Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin delve into the complexities of the ongoing contract dispute between ARM and Qualcomm, exploring the broader implications for the tech industry, particularly in terms of intellectual property (IP) litigation. They discuss the necessity for collaboration between major players in the semiconductor space and examine ARM's growth potential in various markets, including data centers and automotive. The conversation also touches on insights from the recent RISC-V Summit, highlighting the current state and future prospects of RISC-V technology in the industry.

Oct 29, 202448 min

Ep 90Episode 90: TSMC/ASML Earnings Signals, X86 Consortium, Nuclear Trending

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent earnings reports from major semiconductor companies, focusing on ASML's disappointing results and TSMC's optimistic outlook. They explore the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, the implications of Intel and AMD's collaboration on x86 architecture, and the competitive pressures from ARM. The conversation highlights the complexities of the market and the challenges faced by these companies in navigating demand and supply dynamics. The conversation delves into the dynamics of Intel's marketing strategies, the significance of the Open Compute Platform Conference, and the emerging trend of nuclear energy in powering data centers. The speakers discuss the implications of these developments on the tech industry, particularly in relation to competition with Nvidia and the evolving landscape of energy solutions.

Oct 24, 202444 min

Ep 89Episode 89: Advancing AI, thoughts on AMD's Event, Nvidia, and Chain of Reasoning AI

In this episode of The Circuit, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent AMD AI event, focusing on the advancements in CPU architecture, the competitive landscape with NVIDIA, and the importance of vertical integration in AI systems. They explore the role of CPUs in AI workloads, the complexities of total cost of ownership for hyperscalers, and AMD's growth projections in the market. In this conversation, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the dynamics of the AI accelerator market, the performance of AMD's stock in relation to market expectations, the future of inference and compute demands in AI, and the developments in autonomous vehicles. They explore the implications of AI advancements on semiconductor demand, the challenges of scaling autonomous technology, and the evolving landscape of AI capabilities.

Oct 14, 202445 min

Ep 88Episode 88: AI Accellerators, Startup graveyard? With Special Guest Austin Lyons

In this episode, Ben Bajarin, Jay Goldberg, and Austin Lyons discuss the rapid evolution of AI technology and its implications for hardware and software. They explore the challenges faced by AI accelerators, the role of hyperscalers, and the investment landscape in AI startups. The conversation highlights the disparity between the fast-paced development of AI software and the slower advancements in hardware, particularly in the context of GPUs and dedicated AI accelerators. The speakers also delve into the future of real-time training and inference, emphasizing the need for integrated systems over disaggregated ones.

Oct 7, 202451 min

Ep 87Episode 87: Shrinking Silicon (Meta Orion) and Excited about Hardware Again!

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent announcements from Meta at MetaConnect, particularly focusing on their new AR glasses concept. They compare Meta's approach to Apple's Vision Pro, exploring the implications of custom silicon, product timing, and the importance of developer ecosystems. The conversation also touches on the role of Google in the AR/VR space, the potential for an open ecosystem, and the excitement surrounding future technologies in this rapidly evolving field.

Sep 30, 202440 min

Ep 86Episode 86: Intel's Inflection Point? Analyzing the Intel Plan.

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the current state of Intel, focusing on its challenges, board dynamics, and the implications of activist investors. They delve into Intel's foundry strategy, customer relationships, and the significance of the 18A technology. The conversation also touches on Qualcomm's interest in Intel and explores hypothetical merger scenarios, concluding with insights on the future of CPUs in an AI-driven market.

Sep 23, 202447 min

Ep 85Episode 85: OpenAI leaves AI Silicon in the Dust

In this episode, Ben Bajarin and Jay Goldberg discuss the recent advancements in AI software, particularly focusing on OpenAI's new model and its implications for silicon architecture. They explore the challenges of inference costs, the need for silicon innovation, and the competitive landscape involving Nvidia and Google. The conversation highlights the rapid evolution of AI technology and the ongoing race to keep up with software demands.

Sep 16, 202441 min