The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck Todd opens by announcing the launch of "Dynastic," his new sports history podcast with J.A. Adande, before turning to what may be the most consequential inflection point of the Iran war: Trump is running out of patience and actively searching for an off-ramp, but every path forward carries serious risks and his definition of victory keeps shifting by the day. Chuck warns that the U.S. continues to send more troops for potential escalation even as the military acknowledges it has achieved its strategic objectives but can only do so much — the regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly, meaning the war has now become fundamentally about perception rather than territory. He flags General Mattis's warning that Iran will claim control over the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. retreats, that Gulf states are already hedging their security partnerships and leaning toward China, and that standing with America has become politically toxic in allied countries — a direct consequence of Trump choosing to weaken alliances before launching a war that required them. At home, the picture is equally grim: support for Trump among independents has cratered into the low 20s, the MAGA brand has become more toxic with voters than the generic Republican brand, nobody in Trump's orbit wants to own this war, and Chuck warns that while Trump has always bounced back from political crises, this time may be different — the war could be the death knell for the MAGA movement itself, because Trump hollowed out the expertise around him, surrounded himself with sycophants, and now finds both sides stuck in a conflict where retreat looks like defeat and escalation looks like madness. Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose reelection in 2026, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 00:45 Launching the "Dynastic" sports history podcast with J.A. Adande! 09:00 Trump is running out of patience, looking for off-ramp in Iran 10:15 Trump’s definition of victory keeps changing 11:00 Every path forward in Iran carries risks 11:30 We continue to send more troops for potential escalation 12:45 Iran will have a say over who can travel through the Strait of Hormuz 13:15 Gen. Mattis believes Iran will claim control over Strait if U.S. retreats 16:00 The military has had strategic victory, but can only do so much 16:45 Regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly 18:00 Both sides are stuck, so now the war becomes about perception 18:45 Gulf states could hedge their security partnerships, lean to China 19:30 Trump hollowed out expertise & surrounded himself with sycophants 20:30 Nobody in Trump’s orbit want to own this war 21:30 Standing with the U.S. is politically unpopular in allied countries 23:00 Trump chose to weaken America’s alliance prior to launching war 23:45 War is increasingly unpopular at home 25:00 Support for Trump among independents is in the low 20’s 26:30 The MAGA brand is now more toxic with voters than Republican brand 27:30 War could be the death knell for the MAGA brand 28:45 Trump has always bounced back, but he may not be able to this time 35:30 ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose in 2026 36:45 #1 John Cornyn 38:15 #2 Dan McKee 40:30 #3 Bill Cassidy 43:00 #4 Susan Collins 47:00 #5 Pete Ricketts 48:15 Ask Chuck 48:30 John Hickenlooper is out. Has another state had so many 1-term dropouts? 52:45 Would Hilary Clinton have won the presidency if the nominee in a different year? 56:30 Any pop culture quotes that you love that carry weight politically?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens by announcing the launch of "Dynastic," his new sports history podcast with J.A. Adande, before turning to what may be the most consequential inflection point of the Iran war: Trump is running out of patience and actively searching for an off-ramp, but every path forward carries serious risks and his definition of victory keeps shifting by the day. Chuck warns that the U.S. continues to send more troops for potential escalation even as the military acknowledges it has achieved its strategic objectives but can only do so much — the regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly, meaning the war has now become fundamentally about perception rather than territory. He flags General Mattis's warning that Iran will claim control over the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. retreats, that Gulf states are already hedging their security partnerships and leaning toward China, and that standing with America has become politically toxic in allied countries — a direct consequence of Trump choosing to weaken alliances before launching a war that required them. At home, the picture is equally grim: support for Trump among independents has cratered into the low 20s, the MAGA brand has become more toxic with voters than the generic Republican brand, nobody in Trump's orbit wants to own this war, and Chuck warns that while Trump has always bounced back from political crises, this time may be different — the war could be the death knell for the MAGA movement itself, because Trump hollowed out the expertise around him, surrounded himself with sycophants, and now finds both sides stuck in a conflict where retreat looks like defeat and escalation looks like madness. Then, Warwick Sabin — president and CEO of Deep South Today, the nonprofit news network that includes the Pulitzer Prize-winning Mississippi Today, New Orleans' Verite News, and Lafayette's The Current — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss what may be the most promising model for saving local journalism in America. Sabin, a former three-term Arkansas state legislator and publisher of the Oxford American magazine, explains how he's building a network of nonprofit newsrooms across the Deep South from scratch, starting with Mississippi Today — the first nonprofit newsroom in Mississippi, now the largest in the state — and expanding into Louisiana and soon Arkansas. He describes the wholesale implosion of the old newspaper model, using the Jackson Clarion-Ledger's decline as a case study, and argues that the nonprofit approach has a critical advantage: starting fresh means avoiding the crushing legacy costs that buried traditional papers, and all revenue gets reinvested directly into the news product. They make the case that service journalism — covering schools, local government, youth sports — is what creates the trust and audience that makes the "sexy" investigative work possible, pointing to the fact that local journalists in his network helped exonerate a man on death row in Mississippi. The conversation turns to what makes local journalism viable and essential in 2026 and beyond. Sabin argues that human connection to journalists will be the defining differentiator in the age of AI — people won't trust reporters who aren't part of their local community — while acknowledging that AI tools can make reporting dramatically more efficient. He discusses using local and youth sports as a community bonding agent in an era where it's one of the few areas where communities can avoid politics, notes that Mississippi produces terrific writers who need platforms, and emphasizes that having video and audio components is now critical for any news operation. They explore the potential for rebuilding a national network of nonprofit newspapers, discuss which communities are ripe for expansion and make the case that local journalism should be treated as a civic institution deserving of public-private partnership. Sabin's model is free to access, civic-minded, and designed to help citizens survive and thrive in their communities — exactly what Local News Day on April 9th is designed to champion. Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose reelection in 2026, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 00:45 Launching the "Dynastic" sports history podcast with J.A. Adande! 09:00 Trump is running out of patience, lo

On the premiere episode of "Dynastic," Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande tell the full history of the Los Angeles Dodgers, from their Brooklyn beginnings, to Jackie Robinson breaking the MLB color barrier, to Kirk Gibson’s World Series heroics, and the Shohei Ohtani era. They examine all the front-office decisions and key turning points that turned the Dodgers into a baseball dynasty. Please FOLLOW for upcoming episodes. Follow the show on our social accounts: https://www.twitter.com/dynasticpod/ https://www.instagram.com/dynasticpod/ https://www.facebook.com/DynasticPod https://www.tiktok.com/@dynastic.pod  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the two stories dominating the weekend: the Iran war's cascading economic consequences and Trump's vile celebration of Robert Mueller's death. On Iran, Chuck warns that rising energy costs with oil above $100 a barrel are not politically neutral — they function as a tax on existence that directly breaches the contract Trump's own voters signed up for — and that Trump is visibly panicking about gas prices because they disproportionately hurt his base. He argues that killing the Ayatollah was never going to topple the regime because the Iranian leadership doesn't operate as rational actors who can be deterred by suffering, that Trump made the same catastrophic miscalculation Putin made in Ukraine by assuming it would be easy, and that nobody in Trump's orbit will deliver bad news because there is now a North Korea-level sycophancy around the president. He then turns to Trump's Truth Social post celebrating the death of Mueller — a Bronze Star combat veteran, 12-year FBI director, and lifelong public servant who died at 81 from Parkinson's disease — in which Trump wrote "Good, I'm glad he's dead." Chuck notes that even Fox News' Brit Hume tweeted that this is why people don't merely oppose Trump but actively hate him. He argues that character matters in politics more than any policy position, and that Trump is fundamentally incapable of showing grace or knowing when to shut up He revisits the Mueller investigation itself, arguing that the real failure wasn't the probe's legal conclusions — which confirmed Russia took action to help elect Trump and that the campaign expected to benefit from stolen information — but that there were no consequences, and that Trump's refusal to acknowledge Russian help was never about innocence but about protecting the legitimacy of his presidency, with the entire GOP going along because copping to it would have been politically fatal. Suzanne Kianpour — the Emmy-nominated journalist, Semafor columnist, and Iran specialist who joins the Chuck Toddcast for an extraordinarily personal and deeply informed conversation about what's actually happening inside Iran as the war enters its third week. Kianpour paints a picture of a country where people are terrified and staying home, where Persian New Year will not be a celebration, and where the fabric of the regime is visibly falling apart — yet there was no pre-war effort by the U.S. to organize a viable opposition, meaning the question of who replaces the regime remains dangerously unanswered. She examines whether President Pezeshkian could serve as a transitional figure, notes that the former foreign minister has gone conspicuously quiet, discusses the role of Reza Pahlavi and the women's movement, and reveals that sources inside Iran believe the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, may already be dead. Kianpour delivers the stark bottom line: the regime wins simply by staying intact, and without boots on the ground or a coordinated opposition, air and naval power alone cannot finish the job. The conversation broadens into a candid assessment of the geopolitical landscape that complicates any clean resolution. Kianpour argues that the U.S. lost the moral high ground when Trump ripped up the Obama nuclear deal a deal she defends as strategically sound even if imperfect — and that Western media has become so reflexively anti-Trump that some outlets almost want the war to fail, which is inadvertently helping the Iranian regime win the information war. She notes that Gulf states were supportive when they thought the strikes would work quickly but are now distancing themselves, that China — which brokered the Iran-Saudi détente — may end up playing the key diplomatic role. Kianpour offers a striking vision of what could emerge from the ashes: a future Iran and Israel could be close allies and co-leaders of a thriving Middle East, tut she cautions that geopolitical forgiveness must be part of any post-regime transition. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the nuclear meltdown incident at Three Mile Island and argues that it derailed a massive transition to nuclear energy that could have led to energy independence and potentially avoided multiple wars in the middle east. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:15 Launching a new sports history podcast on Tuesday! 08:30

Chuck Todd opens with the two stories dominating the weekend: the Iran war's cascading economic consequences and Trump's vile celebration of Robert Mueller's death. On Iran, Chuck warns that rising energy costs with oil above $100 a barrel are not politically neutral — they function as a tax on existence that directly breaches the contract Trump's own voters signed up for — and that Trump is visibly panicking about gas prices because they disproportionately hurt his base. He argues that killing the Ayatollah was never going to topple the regime because the Iranian leadership doesn't operate as rational actors who can be deterred by suffering, that Trump made the same catastrophic miscalculation Putin made in Ukraine by assuming it would be easy, and that nobody in Trump's orbit will deliver bad news because there is now a North Korea-level sycophancy around the president. He then turns to Trump's Truth Social post celebrating the death of Mueller — a Bronze Star combat veteran, 12-year FBI director, and lifelong public servant who died at 81 from Parkinson's disease — in which Trump wrote "Good, I'm glad he's dead." Chuck notes that even Fox News' Brit Hume tweeted that this is why people don't merely oppose Trump but actively hate him. He argues that character matters in politics more than any policy position, and that Trump is fundamentally incapable of showing grace or knowing when to shut up He revisits the Mueller investigation itself, arguing that the real failure wasn't the probe's legal conclusions — which confirmed Russia took action to help elect Trump and that the campaign expected to benefit from stolen information — but that there were no consequences, and that Trump's refusal to acknowledge Russian help was never about innocence but about protecting the legitimacy of his presidency, with the entire GOP going along because copping to it would have been politically fatal. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the nuclear meltdown incident at Three Mile Island and argues that it derailed a massive transition to nuclear energy that could have led to energy independence and potentially avoided multiple wars in the middle east. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:15 Launching a new sports history podcast on Tuesday! 08:30 Noosphere interview with Joseph Allbriton 09:45 Providing local news services to the Washington D.C. area 11:30 Bezos didn’t live in DC, didn’t understand WaPo’s mission  12:45 The war in Iran is impacting everything. Everything else is downstream 13:15 Rising energy costs are not politically neutral, a tax on existing 14:15 Rising costs is a breach of the contract Trump voters signed up for 15:45 Iranian regime isn’t going to fight as rational actors, suffering doesn’t deter them 17:00 Killing the Ayatollah was never going to topple the regime 17:45 Nobody will give Trump bad news, he only hears what he wants to hear 19:00 There is a North Korea level of sycophancy around Trump 20:00 Trump made same mistake Putin made in Ukraine… thought it’d be easy 21:15 Trump alienated America’s allies, they want no part of his war 22:00 America is isolated and alone, but really need help from allies 23:45 Trump is finding out the hard way why other presidents didn’t hit Iran 25:15 Trump vacillates on his positions & messaging from day to day 26:15 Trump is panicking about gas prices, affects his voters the most 28:00 Trump celebrates Robert Mueller’s death in Truth Social post 29:45 The levels Trump will stoop to are truly sad 30:30 Brit Hume tweets “This is why people don’t just oppose Trump, they hate him” 31:15 Trump is incapable of ever showing grace or knowing when to shut up 32:15 Character matters in politics more than a policy position 33:15 Failure of Mueller investigation was no consequences for Russian meddling 34:30 Mueller report confirmed that Russia took action to help elect Trump 35:15 Wikileaks releases were very well curated & required American knowledge 37:30 Collusion wasn’t the crime, it was that Trump put himself above the country 39:15 Copping to Russian help would have delegitimized Trump, so GOP went along 40:30 People in Trump’s orbit were fine with Russian meddling since it helped them 41:30 Bob Mueller lived a life of public service, did not deserv

Suzanne Kianpour — the Emmy-nominated journalist, Semafor columnist, and Iran specialist who joins the Chuck Toddcast for an extraordinarily personal and deeply informed conversation about what's actually happening inside Iran as the war enters its third week. Kianpour paints a picture of a country where people are terrified and staying home, where Persian New Year will not be a celebration, and where the fabric of the regime is visibly falling apart — yet there was no pre-war effort by the U.S. to organize a viable opposition, meaning the question of who replaces the regime remains dangerously unanswered. She examines whether President Pezeshkian could serve as a transitional figure, notes that the former foreign minister has gone conspicuously quiet, discusses the role of Reza Pahlavi and the women's movement, and reveals that sources inside Iran believe the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, may already be dead. Kianpour delivers the stark bottom line: the regime wins simply by staying intact, and without boots on the ground or a coordinated opposition, air and naval power alone cannot finish the job. The conversation broadens into a candid assessment of the geopolitical landscape that complicates any clean resolution. Kianpour argues that the U.S. lost the moral high ground when Trump ripped up the Obama nuclear deal a deal she defends as strategically sound even if imperfect — and that Western media has become so reflexively anti-Trump that some outlets almost want the war to fail, which is inadvertently helping the Iranian regime win the information war. She notes that Gulf states were supportive when they thought the strikes would work quickly but are now distancing themselves, that China — which brokered the Iran-Saudi détente — may end up playing the key diplomatic role. Kianpour offers a striking vision of what could emerge from the ashes: a future Iran and Israel could be close allies and co-leaders of a thriving Middle East, tut she cautions that geopolitical forgiveness must be part of any post-regime transition. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Suzanne Kianpour joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:45 What Sparked the Protests in Iran 03:30  Suzanne's background in Iran, how she became a conflict journalist 07:30 Reporting on the Iran nuclear deal 09:30 Could the Regime Have Fallen on Its Own?  12:00 People in Iran are afraid and are staying at home 14:00 Persian New Year will not be a celebration this year. 16:30 Can the Regime Survive? What Would Change It?  18:30 There was no pre-war effort to organize opposition.  21:30 Pahlavi and the Women's Movement  24:30 President Pazeshkian as a potential transitional figure 27:15 Former foreign minister has gone quiet.  29:00 Regime wins if it stays intact 30:30 Was the Obama Deal naive or strategic?  32:00 U.S. lost moral high ground after Trump ripped up the deal 34:00 Western and European media is so anti-Trump that they almost want him to fail  36:30 The Iranian regime is winning the information war.  39:30 Joe Kent's resignation is being framed as a "wartime defection"  41:15 Air and naval power alone can't guarantee safe passage in Strait of Hormuz 42:45 Gulf states were supportive when they thought it would work,  now they're distancing  45:15 China's Role China brokered the Iran-Saudi détente and may play a diplomatic role  47:30 Social media broke the regime’s control over the Iranian public 50:00 The fabric of the regime is now visibly falling apart. 52:15 Israel wanted to permanently eliminate Iran's proxy war capability post-October 7. 54:30 A future Iran and Israel could be close allies and co-leaders of a thriving Middle East 57:15 Geopolitical forgiveness has to be part of any post-regime transition 59:45 Conflict will back into intelligence and covert operations after the kinetic phase.  1:01:00 Sources inside Iran believe the new Supreme Leader may already be dead y. 1:04:30 Where to find Suzanne’s workSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd digs into the wreckage of the Illinois primary — where more than $50 million in outside money from crypto, AI, and AIPAC-linked groups flooded Democratic races — and asks what it means for the future of American democracy when PACs and outside groups are far outspending the actual campaigns they're trying to influence. He credits Stratton for being able to overcome the massive crypto onslaught — a rare and significant defeat for an industry that has been buying influence across both parties — but warns that her victory required a billionaire governor's financial backing to counteract billionaire-funded opposition, which only underscores the problem. He traces the rot back to McCain-Feingold, arguing that the landmark campaign finance law inadvertently weakened the parties by decentralizing money, which in turn decentralized accountability — and that the Supreme Court's subsequent decisions let the situation spiral completely out of control. He calls out Chuck Schumer directly for caving to crypto money and pressuring his caucus to go along, notes that campaign finance reform feels like an unwinnable issue because the people who benefit from the current system are the ones who'd have to change it, He closes with a broader observation: with money deciding which candidates are viable before voters even weigh in, and with the country having produced three consecutive one-term presidents, American politics is likely to remain deeply unstable for years to come. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00: Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:15: AI & Pac money dominates the Illinois Primary 05:30: Campaign finance reform feels like an “unwinnable issue” 08:30 McCain-Feingold weakened the parties  11:00 Chuck Schumer caves to huge crypto money 12:30 Illinois primary became Ground Zero for Donor-Centered Politics  15:15 Juliana Stratton was able to overcome massive crypto donors. 16:45: Decentralizing money decentralized accountability 18:15 Money decides which candidates are viable 21:45 Should Democrats find their own billionaire? 26:30 U.S. politics likely to remain unstable, with multiple 1 term presidents 33:00 Ask Chuck 33:15 Would National Press Club membership be good for young journalists? 37:15 When did America actually become a country? 40:30 Is it worth contacting reps who already agree with you? 44:30 Thoughts on Mississippi as a potential Democratic opportunity? 48:45 Viability of the National Popular Vote Compact? 55:30 Will congress ever address daylight savings time? 58:45 NCAA tournament picksSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Oklahoma Congressman and now president of Americans for Responsible Innovation Brad Carson joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about why AI may be the most consequential policy issue nobody in Washington is seriously addressing. They discuss why  Americans are uniquely pessimistic about AI compared to the rest of the world, and for good reason: huge AI money is pouring into races like the Illinois Senate primary where outside groups and PACs are far outspending actual campaigns, Elon Musk's Grok chatbot adopted a "MechaHitler" persona and is now integrated at the Pentagon, we have virtually no visibility into what's happening inside AI labs or how these systems are being deployed, and the same technology that could deliver incredible medical breakthroughs could also be used to develop bioweapons. Carson argues that immunizing tech companies with Section 230 was a massive mistake — the law passed before anyone understood how the technology would evolve — and that recommendation algorithms effectively make platforms publishers, meaning the Supreme Court has fundamentally misinterpreted the First Amendment when it comes to tech regulation.    He makes the case that state-level regulation may be the more immediate solution given congressional dysfunction and warns that surveillance pricing — where companies like the Washington Post reportedly examined subscribers' credit reports when setting prices — seems blatantly unconstitutional. They contend that consumer protection for AI would be a winning political message for either party, that the electrical grid alone will need a trillion dollars in investment to support AI's energy demands, and that letting the private sector roll out this technology without guardrails is an enormous risk.    Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Rep. Brad Carson joins the Chuck ToddCast 02:30 Americans are uniquely pessimistic about AI 03:30 What is Americans for Responsible Innovation & who funds it? 05:15 Anthropic believes that AI needs reasonable guardrails 05:45 Huge AI money pouring into Illinois primary races 06:45 Outside groups & PACs are far outspending actual campaigns 08:15 Money is destroying democracy, SCOTUS let it get out of hand 09:45 Immunizing tech companies with Section 230 was a huge mistake 11:00 Courts need to develop common law for regulating tech 12:15 Recommendation algorithms make tech platforms a publisher 13:15 SCOTUS misinterpreted 1st amendment when regulating tech 14:15 Sec. 230 passed before knowing how the tech would evolve 15:30 State level regulation may be the more immediate solution 16:30 How do you determine which candidates to support? 18:00 The tech isn’t unpopular, it’s how it has interacted with U.S. politics 19:00 We know social media is bad for us, but can’t quit it 20:15 Congressional leadership has stood in the way of regulation 21:30 What’s a safer way to roll out AI regulation in a broken political system? 22:45 There are certain safeguards that must be built into AI models 23:30 Grok took on a “MechaHitler” persona & is integrated at the Pentagon 25:15 Letting the private sector roll out AI without regulation is a huge risk 26:00 We have no visibility into AI labs or how it’s being deployed 27:30 AI can be used for incredible medical advances… or bioweapons 29:30 Ron DeSantis is proposing an “AI Bill of Rights” in Florida 30:15 Surveillance pricing seems incredibly unconstitutional and illegal 31:00 Washington Post looked at subscribers’ credit reports when pricing 32:30 People deserve to know if AI is evaluating them when applying for jobs 34:00 We haven’t had enough debate around the AI issue 34:45 Who can be a trusted voice to lead the debate? 36:15 Consumer protection for AI would be a winning political message 38:30 Fear of AI job displacement & rising electricity prices at the forefront 39:45 The electrical grid will need a trillion dollars invested into it 41:15 The difference between Oklahoma Democrats & national ones? 43:45 The tribes have become the check on Republicans in Oklahoma 45:45 Ossoff & Buttigieg are two potential ‘28 Dems that stand out 46:45 Dems need to attack Trump for lying to base, rather than attack his voters 48:00 How did you like being the president of Tulsa University?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd digs into the wreckage of the Illinois primary — where more than $50 million in outside money from crypto, AI, and AIPAC-linked groups flooded Democratic races — and asks what it means for the future of American democracy when PACs and outside groups are far outspending the actual campaigns they're trying to influence. He credits Stratton for being able to overcome the massive crypto onslaught — a rare and significant defeat for an industry that has been buying influence across both parties — but warns that her victory required a billionaire governor's financial backing to counteract billionaire-funded opposition, which only underscores the problem. He traces the rot back to McCain-Feingold, arguing that the landmark campaign finance law inadvertently weakened the parties by decentralizing money, which in turn decentralized accountability — and that the Supreme Court's subsequent decisions let the situation spiral completely out of control. He calls out Chuck Schumer directly for caving to crypto money and pressuring his caucus to go along, notes that campaign finance reform feels like an unwinnable issue because the people who benefit from the current system are the ones who'd have to change it, He closes with a broader observation: with money deciding which candidates are viable before voters even weigh in, and with the country having produced three consecutive one-term presidents, American politics is likely to remain deeply unstable for years to come. Former Oklahoma Congressman and now president of Americans for Responsible Innovation Brad Carson joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about why AI may be the most consequential policy issue nobody in Washington is seriously addressing. They discuss why  Americans are uniquely pessimistic about AI compared to the rest of the world, and for good reason: huge AI money is pouring into races like the Illinois Senate primary where outside groups and PACs are far outspending actual campaigns, Elon Musk's Grok chatbot adopted a "MechaHitler" persona and is now integrated at the Pentagon, we have virtually no visibility into what's happening inside AI labs or how these systems are being deployed, and the same technology that could deliver incredible medical breakthroughs could also be used to develop bioweapons. Carson argues that immunizing tech companies with Section 230 was a massive mistake — the law passed before anyone understood how the technology would evolve — and that recommendation algorithms effectively make platforms publishers, meaning the Supreme Court has fundamentally misinterpreted the First Amendment when it comes to tech regulation.  He makes the case that state-level regulation may be the more immediate solution given congressional dysfunction and warns that surveillance pricing — where companies like the Washington Post reportedly examined subscribers' credit reports when setting prices — seems blatantly unconstitutional. They contend that consumer protection for AI would be a winning political message for either party, that the electrical grid alone will need a trillion dollars in investment to support AI's energy demands, and that letting the private sector roll out this technology without guardrails is an enormous risk.  Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00: Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:15: AI & Pac money dominates the Illinois Primary 05:30: Campaign finance reform feels like an “unwinnable issue” 08:30 McCain-Feingold weakened the parties  11:00 Chuck Schumer caves to huge crypto money 12:30 Illinois primary became Ground Zero for Donor-Centered Politics  15:15 Juliana Stratton was able to overcome massive crypto donors. 16:45: Decentralizing money decentralized accountability 18:15 Money decides which candidates are viable 21:45 Should Democrats find their own billionaire? 26:30 U.S. politics likely to remain unstable, with multiple 1 term presidents 36:00 Rep. Brad Carson joins the Chuck ToddCast 38:30 Americans are uniquely pessimistic about AI 39:30 What is Americans for Responsible Innovation & who funds it? 41:15 Anthropic believes that AI needs reasonable guardrails 41:45 Huge AI money pouring into Illinois primary races 42:45 Outside groups & PACs are far outspending actual campaigns 44:15 Money is destroying democracy, SCOTUS

Chuck Todd opens with the bluntest assessment yet of the Iran war as it enters its third week: America's position as leader of the free world is unraveling in real time, the risk of mission creep is enormous, and we are now seeing exactly why every previous president chose not to attack Iran. Trump is ranting and begging allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. He notes that Trump is even angling for a joint operation with China to police the strait — a surreal proposition given the broader geopolitical rivalry — and that Trump is learning the hard way why you don't alienate allies before starting a war that requires their help. The Director of Counterterrorism has resigned over the conflict, DNI Tulsi Gabbard is performing rhetorical contortions to signal she doesn't believe in the war while keeping her job, and the administration has entered what Chuck calls the "cover your ass" stage. He argues that Trump's coalition has been fracturing for six months, that America is demonstrably less secure today than before the strikes began, and that this war — which has confirmed to the world that America is truly alone — could ultimately prove more damaging than Vietnam or Iraq. He closes by noting softening poll numbers for Republicans like Lindsey Graham and Vivek Ramaswamy, and that Maine Governor Janet Mills has gone sharply negative against progressive challenger Graham Platner in their Senate primary — a sign that the vetting process is heating up in ways that will ultimately be healthy for the party. Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 statewide campaigns from the state of Illinois and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 05:00 Iran war keeps getting worse for Trump, risk of mission creep is high 05:15 America’s place as “Leader of the Free World” is unraveling  06:00 The military part is going well, the diplomatic part is a disaster 06:45 We’re seeing the reasons previous presidents didn’t attack Iran 07:30 Director of Counterterrorism resigns over the war 09:00 Trump is either not getting the truth or being told what he wants to hear 10:00 Gabbard argues Trump has mandate despite not getting 50% of the vote 11:00 Gabbard says only Trump can determine what is an "imminent threat” 11:45 Gabbard wants she signal she doesn’t believe in war, but keep her job 12:45 We’re in the “cover your ass” stage of the war 15:30 Many MAGA true believers like Joe Kent & MTG wanted no more wars 18:00 If you can’t serve the president, resigning is the right thing to do 18:45 We’re less secure today than before the war started 19:30 Trump’s coalition has been fracturing for six months 21:30 Trump’s ranting and begging for help with the Strait of Hormuz 23:00 Strait of Hormuz has always been the Iranian regime’s leverage 24:00 Securing the strait requires boots on the ground 24:45 Trump is learning the hard way why you don’t alienate allies 26:30 If the regime stays in place, it’ll look like Trump retreated 27:30 This war has been confirmation that America is alone 29:15 This war could be more damaging that Vietnam or Iraq 2 30:00 We need real diplomacy and there hasn’t been any of it 30:45 Trump angling for joint operation with China which is… weird 31:15 Trump wants a way out, but boxed himself in 32:30 We’re starting to see softening support for other elected Republicans 33:15 Polls show Lindsey Graham & Vivek Ramaswamy’s support way down 34:30 Janet Mills decides to go sharply negative against Graham Platner 36:45 The vetting in the primary will be healthy for the Democrats 41:15 Abortion may take a backseat to economy, but could affect midterms 43:00 ToddCast Top 5 statewide races in Illinois 44:00 Illinois has produced 2 presidents and sent 4 governors to prison 45:45 #1 Obama’s 2004 senate campaign 51:15 #2 1992 senate campaign 54:15 1960 presidential Kennedy v Nixon 57:15 1984 Simon vs. Percy 59:45 1986 Democratic primary chaos 1:03:15 Honorable mentions 1:05:15 Ask Chuck 1:05:30 Are we normalizing the denigration of female journalists by Trump? 1:09:45 Why do politics feel so much harder now, and we can’t find agreement? 1:11:45 How much did gutting State Dept. lead to evacuation debacle in middle east? 1:15:30 Did Spanberger tee up a wave in the ne

Chuck Todd opens with the bluntest assessment yet of the Iran war as it enters its third week: America's position as leader of the free world is unraveling in real time, the risk of mission creep is enormous, and we are now seeing exactly why every previous president chose not to attack Iran. Trump is ranting and begging allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. He notes that Trump is even angling for a joint operation with China to police the strait — a surreal proposition given the broader geopolitical rivalry — and that Trump is learning the hard way why you don't alienate allies before starting a war that requires their help. The Director of Counterterrorism has resigned over the conflict, DNI Tulsi Gabbard is performing rhetorical contortions to signal she doesn't believe in the war while keeping her job, and the administration has entered what Chuck calls the "cover your ass" stage. He argues that Trump's coalition has been fracturing for six months, that America is demonstrably less secure today than before the strikes began, and that this war — which has confirmed to the world that America is truly alone — could ultimately prove more damaging than Vietnam or Iraq. He closes by noting softening poll numbers for Republicans like Lindsey Graham and Vivek Ramaswamy, and that Maine Governor Janet Mills has gone sharply negative against progressive challenger Graham Platner in their Senate primary — a sign that the vetting process is heating up in ways that will ultimately be healthy for the party. Then, Amy Littlefield — investigative reporter for The Nation and author of the new book Killers of Roe: My Investigation into the Mysterious Death of Abortion Rights — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a fascinating deep dive into the decades-long campaign that dismantled abortion rights in America, framed through the lens of an Agatha Christie-style murder mystery where the killers turn out to be the people you least suspect. Littlefield reveals that the death of Roe was not a single blow but death by a thousand stab wounds from multiple suspects: a Catholic hospital system that now controls one in six beds in America with reproductive care restrictions, an evangelical movement that amassed enormous political power in the Reagan era, a Democratic Party that was deeply complicit — the Hyde Amendment passed through a Democratic-majority Congress and real women died as a result — and operatives like Leonard Leo, who hand-delivered Trump a list of Supreme Court justices guaranteed to overturn Roe. Littlefield argues that anti-abortion activists brilliantly copied the playbook of the civil rights movement, that fighting against something is inherently more galvanizing than defending something, and that reproductive rights groups like Planned Parenthood and NARAL were constantly outflanked by a more organized, more disciplined opposition that understood single-issue voters could be leveraged for outsized political power. The conversation turns to the future of reproductive rights in a post-Dobbs America — and the picture is more complicated than either side admits. Littlefield points out that the number of abortions has actually increased since the Dobbs decision, that anti-abortion ballot initiatives consistently lose even in conservative areas, and that there's 80% public support that could be leveraged if the movement reframed its message around freedom rather than choice and connected reproductive rights to economic concerns. But she warns that anti-abortion activists aren't done: they want birth control and IVF outlawed next, and anti-women political movements are gaining momentum globally.  Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 statewide campaigns from the state of Illinois and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 05:00 Iran war keeps getting worse for Trump, risk of mission creep is high 05:15 America’s place as “Leader of the Free World” is unraveling  06:00 The military part is going well, the diplomatic part is a disaster 06:45 We’re seeing the reasons previous presidents didn’t attack Iran 07:30 Director of Counterterrorism resigns over the war 09:00 Trump is either not getting the truth or being told what he wants to hear 10:00 Gabbard argues Trump has mandate despite not getting 50% of the vote 11:00 Gabbard says only T

Amy Littlefield — investigative reporter for The Nation and author of the new book Killers of Roe: My Investigation into the Mysterious Death of Abortion Rights — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a fascinating deep dive into the decades-long campaign that dismantled abortion rights in America, framed through the lens of an Agatha Christie-style murder mystery where the killers turn out to be the people you least suspect. Littlefield reveals that the death of Roe was not a single blow but death by a thousand stab wounds from multiple suspects: a Catholic hospital system that now controls one in six beds in America with reproductive care restrictions, an evangelical movement that amassed enormous political power in the Reagan era, a Democratic Party that was deeply complicit — the Hyde Amendment passed through a Democratic-majority Congress and real women died as a result — and operatives like Leonard Leo, who hand-delivered Trump a list of Supreme Court justices guaranteed to overturn Roe. Littlefield argues that anti-abortion activists brilliantly copied the playbook of the civil rights movement, that fighting against something is inherently more galvanizing than defending something, and that reproductive rights groups like Planned Parenthood and NARAL were constantly outflanked by a more organized, more disciplined opposition that understood single-issue voters could be leveraged for outsized political power. The conversation turns to the future of reproductive rights in a post-Dobbs America — and the picture is more complicated than either side admits. Littlefield points out that the number of abortions has actually increased since the Dobbs decision, that anti-abortion ballot initiatives consistently lose even in conservative areas, and that there's 80% public support that could be leveraged if the movement reframed its message around freedom rather than choice and connected reproductive rights to economic concerns. But she warns that anti-abortion activists aren't done: they want birth control and IVF outlawed next, and anti-women political movements are gaining momentum globally.  Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Amy Littlefield joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:30 Why did you choose the murder mystery framing for this book? 02:45 1 in 6 beds is in a Catholic hospital that have reproductive care restrictions 04:15 Agatha Christie’s style was an inspiration for the book 07:15 We know the political side of the story, wanted to tell the activist story 08:45 Getting the Roe decision required a strong grassroots movement 09:15 The Catholic church has a strong organizational operation 10:30 Reproductive rights wasn’t a left vs. right issue in the 70s and 80s 12:45 Democrats have been complicit in the erosion of reproductive rights 13:45 The Hyde amendment got through a Democratic majority congress 14:45 Evangelicals amassed huge political power in the Reagan era 15:30 Reagan flipped his position on abortion during his presidency 17:15 Abortion and guns are the two single-issue voting issues 18:00 Republicans extracted huge power out of single issue voters 19:15 People are willing to compromise other values for anti-abortion position 20:00 Anti-abortion activists know they don’t have majority support 21:30 Was “choice” the worst word they could pick? Why not frame it as freedom? 24:15 Examining the first deaths after the passage of Hyde amendment 25:00 Why didn’t deaths due to the Hyde amendment galvanize voters? 27:30 Justices didn’t want 5-4 on Roe so they came up with convoluted argument 28:30 A flawed legal rationale isn’t why Roe fell 30:00 The abortion rights fight has always been in the states 31:45 The debate has been over codifying Roe or codifying a right 33:45 Repealing the Hyde amendment was biggest win in years for abortion rights 35:30 Planned Parenthood has had an oversized role in defending abortion rights 36:15 Would there be a Federalist Society without Roe? 37:00 Leonard Leo handed Trump the names of justices that would overturn Roe 38:15 Anti-abortion activists copied the playbook of the civil rights movement 39:45 Is there anybody on the pro-abortion rights side that deserves blame for Dobbs? 41:00 Reproductive rights groups like PP and NARAL were constantly outflanked 42:00 Fighting against something is more galvanizing than defending something 43:30 Anti-abortion ballot initiatives consistently lose, even in conservative ar

Faiz Shakir — Bernie Sanders' 2020 campaign manager, former DNC chair candidate, and executive director of the progressive media organization More Perfect Union — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a bracingly honest conversation about what's wrong with the Democratic Party and what it would take to fix it. Shakir diagnoses a party that is functionally leaderless, with its top figures stuck in a "play dead" mentality while the Democratic brand polls worse than the Republican brand even as Trump's corruption grows more brazen by the day. He argues that Trump — like Biden before him — is finger-wagging at voters on the economy rather than addressing affordability, and that Democrats are blowing the opportunity to capitalize because they're terrible at picking fights and allergic to friction. Shakir is particularly scathing on the party's relationship with big tech and corporate power: He holds up Bernie Sanders' AI data center moratorium as the kind of fight Democrats should be waging, and Lina Khan's FTC tenure as the model of mission-driven disruption. The conversation then turns to the future of the party and how to build a lasting majority. Shakir argues that the right candidate could move 7% of the electorate from right to left, that if Sanders were younger he'd likely win in 2028, and that Sanders has more credibility than AOC because he represents a rural state — though he praises both AOC's national appeal and Ro Khanna's political intelligence. He insists Democrats need to fight a class-based economic justice campaign, stop punishing candidates who aren't perfectly aligned on social issues, and recognize that "independent" doesn't mean centrist — younger voters are disillusioned with both parties and hungry for a working-class-first agenda. Shakir offers a detailed vision for DNC reform: fund state parties based on merit and metrics, move Nevada to first on the primary calendar because Vegas politics would orient the party toward working-class concerns, add Michigan and North Carolina to the early window,and invest in sun belt opportunities He closes by noting that James Talarico channeled Bernie's message with a religious-based framing, and that Democratic voters always gravitate toward outsiders — the party just needs to let them run.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Faiz Shakir joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:45 Democratic party seems leaderless 02:15 Would you run again for DNC chair? 03:45 Leaders of the party have a bit of a “play dead” mentality 04:30 Democratic brand is still in worse shape than Republican brand 05:45 Trump having billionaires at inauguration was foreshadowing 06:15 Trump’s corruption is incredibly brazen 07:15 It’s obvious Trump doesn’t care about affordability 08:15 Trump, like Biden, is finger wagging at voters on the economy 09:30 Vance sold himself as an anti-interventionalist populist  10:15 Vance has had to completely go against his political identity 11:00 Trump’s corruption has totally undermined Vance 12:30 Trump’s argument of "imminent threat” from Iran is nonsense 14:00 Chuck Schumer told his caucus to “suck it up” on crypto  15:30 The public is far ahead of politicians in being skeptical of AI 16:15 Very little is being offered by AI that would improve lives of working class 17:00 Every candidate in Illinois senate race basically has a big tech sponsor 18:15 Democratic party is terrible at picking fights and don’t like friction 19:00 Bernie Sanders AI data center moratorium reflects the public sentiment 19:45 Democrats are so heady on policy they let their politics suffer 21:00 There’s a movement of independent candidates, but winning matters 21:45 Independents are offering a different, working class first agenda 23:00 Democrats punish candidates who aren’t perfectly aligned on social issues 24:30 Bernie Sanders is stronger candidate in a general election than a primary 25:30 The right candidate could move 7% of the electorate from right to left 27:15 If Sanders were younger and could run in 2028, he’d likely win 28:15 Sanders has more credibility than AOC because he’s from rural state 29:00 Democrats need to fight a class based, economic justice campaign 31:15 How would you make changes at the DNC? 32:30 How should Democrats approach secondary races in MT & NE? 34:00 Younger voters are disillusioned with both parties,

Chuck Todd delivers a sweeping analysis of how the Iran war is metastasizing into an economic, military, and constitutional crisis all at once — warning that the Strait of Hormuz, the most important waterway in the world through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply flows, is Iran's ultimate point of leverage and one Trump catastrophically failed to account for. He argues that Trump mistakenly assumed the Iranian regime would be as transactional as he is and would capitulate the way Venezuela did, but Iran has no intention of walking away from its ability to make the strait dangerous to navigate — which is all it takes to send energy markets into chaos, threaten the tourism and banking economies of Gulf states, and risk the economic collapse of nuclear-armed Pakistan through energy shortages. He calls Pete Hegseth a "Baghdad Bob"-style propagandist presiding over the administration's grotesque "memeification" of war, then turns to what he calls FCC Chairman Brendan Carr's declaration of war on press freedom — Carr threatened Saturday to revoke broadcast licenses over Iran war coverage the administration deems unfavorable, drawing immediate condemnation from Democrats, free speech groups, and even some Republicans who called it "authoritarian" and "unconstitutional." Chuck warns that while courts will likely block Carr's most extreme threats, the mere act of launching investigations creates a chilling effect not dissimilar to how broadcasting works in Russia.  He closes by acknowledging that the Iranian regime needs to go, but that Trump's disastrous decision to lift oil sanctions on Russia has only strengthened Moscow's position, and that the war has dramatically increased the likelihood of terrorist attacks against Americans  Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of standardized time, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and gives his advice for building your NCAA tournament bracket.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:15 The Iran War will impact nearly everything 05:00 Military, war has been a route but it’s become asymmetrical 05:45 The Strait of Hormuz is the most important waterway in the world 06:45 Trump mistakenly assumed Iranian regime would be transactional like him 08:00 Shutting the strait is Iran’s biggest point of deterrence 09:00 Shutting the strait can massively damage the world economy 09:45 Trump miscalculated Iran would capitulate like Venezuela 12:00 The strait is Iran’s leverage, they aren’t going to walk away from it 12:45 Trump talks a big game, but Iran can extract a huge price on the west 14:15 Pete Hegseth has become a “Baghdad Bob” style propagandist 15:30 Asymmetrical warfare is how America won the Revolutionary War 16:45 All Iran has to do is make the Strait of Hormuz dangerous to navigate 17:30 Reagan had to intervene in the Gulf in the 80s to secure shipping routes 18:15 Convoy protection missions rarely stay small 19:15 If keeping shipping lanes open is the goal, the timeline & operation expands 20:00 Gulf states has become tourism & banking hubs, that’s being threatened 21:15 War is both an economic and “image” blow to the gulf states 22:30 Energy shortages risk the economic collapse of nuclear armed Pakistan 23:30 Trump made a disastrous decision to lift oil sanctions on Russia 24:00 War in Iran is strengthening Russia’s position in the Ukraine war 24:45 Energy prices affect the entire economy. Will raise inflation in America 25:30 This war is a major economic gamble 26:30 FCC Chair declares war on freedom of the press 27:15 Carr threatens to pull broadcast licenses over unfavorable war coverage 28:15 Carr’s threats aren’t dissimilar to how broadcasting works in Russia 30:00 FCC just launching investigations can put pressure on networks 31:15 ABC settling with Trump was a massive mistake 32:30 Project 2025 proposed “broadcast regulation” similar to this 33:45 Administration’s “memeification” of war is gross & embarrassing 35:00 War has increased likelihood of terrorist attacks against American 35:30 American Jews & Muslims have had to spend millions on security 36:15 Administration hiding terrorism reports should scare us* 37:45 The courts will stop Brendan Carr from violating press freedom 38:45 Administratio

Chuck Todd delivers a sweeping analysis of how the Iran war is metastasizing into an economic, military, and constitutional crisis all at once — warning that the Strait of Hormuz, the most important waterway in the world through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply flows, is Iran's ultimate point of leverage and one Trump catastrophically failed to account for. He argues that Trump mistakenly assumed the Iranian regime would be as transactional as he is and would capitulate the way Venezuela did, but Iran has no intention of walking away from its ability to make the strait dangerous to navigate — which is all it takes to send energy markets into chaos, threaten the tourism and banking economies of Gulf states, and risk the economic collapse of nuclear-armed Pakistan through energy shortages. He calls Pete Hegseth a "Baghdad Bob"-style propagandist presiding over the administration's grotesque "memeification" of war, then turns to what he calls FCC Chairman Brendan Carr's declaration of war on press freedom — Carr threatened Saturday to revoke broadcast licenses over Iran war coverage the administration deems unfavorable, drawing immediate condemnation from Democrats, free speech groups, and even some Republicans who called it "authoritarian" and "unconstitutional." Chuck warns that while courts will likely block Carr's most extreme threats, the mere act of launching investigations creates a chilling effect not dissimilar to how broadcasting works in Russia.  He closes by acknowledging that the Iranian regime needs to go, but that Trump's disastrous decision to lift oil sanctions on Russia has only strengthened Moscow's position, and that the war has dramatically increased the likelihood of terrorist attacks against Americans  Then, Faiz Shakir — Bernie Sanders' 2020 campaign manager, former DNC chair candidate, and executive director of the progressive media organization More Perfect Union — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a bracingly honest conversation about what's wrong with the Democratic Party and what it would take to fix it. Shakir diagnoses a party that is functionally leaderless, with its top figures stuck in a "play dead" mentality while the Democratic brand polls worse than the Republican brand even as Trump's corruption grows more brazen by the day. He argues that Trump — like Biden before him — is finger-wagging at voters on the economy rather than addressing affordability, and that Democrats are blowing the opportunity to capitalize because they're terrible at picking fights and allergic to friction. Shakir is particularly scathing on the party's relationship with big tech and corporate power: He holds up Bernie Sanders' AI data center moratorium as the kind of fight Democrats should be waging, and Lina Khan's FTC tenure as the model of mission-driven disruption. The conversation then turns to the future of the party and how to build a lasting majority. Shakir argues that the right candidate could move 7% of the electorate from right to left, that if Sanders were younger he'd likely win in 2028, and that Sanders has more credibility than AOC because he represents a rural state — though he praises both AOC's national appeal and Ro Khanna's political intelligence. He insists Democrats need to fight a class-based economic justice campaign, stop punishing candidates who aren't perfectly aligned on social issues, and recognize that "independent" doesn't mean centrist — younger voters are disillusioned with both parties and hungry for a working-class-first agenda. Shakir offers a detailed vision for DNC reform: fund state parties based on merit and metrics, move Nevada to first on the primary calendar because Vegas politics would orient the party toward working-class concerns, add Michigan and North Carolina to the early window,and invest in sun belt opportunities He closes by noting that James Talarico channeled Bernie's message with a religious-based framing, and that Democratic voters always gravitate toward outsiders — the party just needs to let them run. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of standardized time, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and gives his advice for building your NCAA tournament bracket.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 05:30 The Iran War will impact nearly everything 06:15 Militar

Fiona Hill — who served on the National Security Council under three presidents and became a household name during Trump's first impeachment — joins the Chuck ToddCast for a deeply alarming assessment of the Iran war now entering its second week, with Operation Epic Fury having metastasized into a multi-front conflict spanning nine countries, oil prices surging past $100 a barrel, and hundreds of thousands of travelers stranded across the Middle East. Hill dismantles the geopolitical chessboard with surgical precision, explaining that while there is no formal alliance between Russia and Iran and that the relationship is deeply transactional, with Iran having provided Russia with Shahed drones and helped build a drone factory. She argues that China is letting the U.S. "rope-a-dope" itself, sitting back alongside Russia to watch America bleed resources and credibility in yet another Middle Eastern quagmire. She flags the glaring double standard in the administration's diplomacy: envoy Steve Witkoff refused to take the Iranians at their word during nuclear negotiations in Geneva but accepted Russian assurances at face value. The conversation turns existential as Hill warns that Trump's adventurism — which never faced serious consequences through Venezuela or the June 2025 strikes that made Iran look like a paper tiger — has now collided with reality. Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant successor, but none of those hopes have materialized. Hill calls it an Afghanistan-and-Iraq-level jam with even less global credibility.. They raise the chilling question of whether Xi Jinping might prioritize seizing Taiwan while America is overextended, observes that NORAD doesn't function without Canada and the Nordic countries that Trump has alienated, warns that the damage to America's reputation will last decades, and notes that individual U.S. states are already setting up their own diplomatic representation with foreign countries to fill the vacuum. They close with a striking contrast: unlike Russians, Americans can still vote their way out of tyranny — but the window in which that remains true may be narrowing, as we are likely entering a post-American empire period.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Fiona Hill joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:15 There is no formal alliance between Russia and Iran 02:00 Historically, Russia and Iran clashed over territory 03:45 Iran provided Russia with Shahed drones & helped build factory 04:30 Trump views his relationship with Russia & Putin in a vacuum 05:30 Iran’s relationship with China & Russia is very transactional 06:15 Iran sees itself as a civilization, not just a country 08:00 China is letting the U.S. “rope a dope” itself 09:15 China doesn’t do favors without a cost 10:00 Witkoff didn’t take Iranians at their word but did with Russia 10:30 China & Russia are sitting back and watching what happens in Iran 11:30 Special military operations often become quagmires 12:45 Trump hasn’t thought about the knock-on consequences in Iran 15:00 Administration thinks they can figure it out as they go 15:45 Trump’s adventurism never had serious consequences until now 17:30 9/11 shaped the frame for American thinking for 25 years 18:30 Do you buy that MBS pushed Trump into striking Iran? 19:30 The Chinese didn’t see unintended effects of war in Ukraine 20:30 Russia has 20x casualty rate in Ukraine that USSR had in Afghanistan 22:30 The Israelis are clear that they want regime change 22:45 Outside of eliminating the nuclear program… What's the rest of our aim? 24:15 Without regime change, Iranian and Venezuelan people will turn on Trump 25:15 There’s a large Iranian population is many countries 25:45 Trump is in a Afghanistan/Iraq level jam with no plan 26:30 Gutting of national security council effects on Trump’s planning 27:45 We’ve lost grip of our political system, congress has abdicated 29:00 High oil prices could be a boon to Russia, but shipping is an issue 31:15 Putin doesn’t want to end the war in Ukraine unless its on his terms 32:00 Ukraine has been an incredibly tough fighting force 32:45 The rich & powerful forget that the other 8 billion people have agency 34:15 Ukraine won’t have a peace imposed on it by outsiders 35:00 Trump assumes everyone else is as transaction

Chuck Todd opens with a grim inventory of an administration besieged on every front as the Iran war enters its twelfth day with no exit strategy in sight. He then pivots to the SAVE Act — the Republican voting bill that has 50 Senate votes but faces a filibuster John Thune admits he likely can't break. He walks through the details that go well beyond simple voter ID: the bill requires documentary proof of citizenship to register, treats women who change their name through marriage as first-time voters, and Trump is demanding additions including a near-total ban on mail-in voting — turning what polls show is an 80%-popular concept into a toxic package that could disenfranchise millions. He notes that John Cornyn flipped his filibuster position to chase Trump's Texas endorsement, warns that if Republicans nuke the filibuster and Democrats later win the Senate they won't restore it, and argues that Republicans are essentially writing legislation to make Trump's false fraud claims real — while Trump is already setting up the SAVE Act's inevitable failure as his preemptive excuse for midterm losses that have nothing to do with voting rules and everything to do with an unpopular war, a tanking economy, and a completely unserious leader running the Pentagon. Ultimately, he argues that partisan changes to voting rule destroy trust in democracy, whether it be the SAVE Act, or Democrats efforts to pass HR1. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and celebrates the start of March Madness.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:30 There’s no easy way for Trump to get out of Iran 05:30 It’s become clear US responsible for bombing Iranian school 06:15 FBI warns California law enforcement of threat of Iranian drone strikes 07:15 The fallout from the war is complicated & Trump can’t just turn it off 08:30 Drone attack that killed US soldiers far more serious than initially reported 09:15 Republicans in congress are demoralized & don’t know what to run on 10:45 Pentagon bars press for publishing “unflattering” photos of Pete Hegseth 12:00 We have a serious war and a completely unserious leader of the Pentagon 12:45 Republican senators knew Hegseth was unqualified & confirmed him anyway 14:15 It’s important to explain the details of the Republican SAVE Act 15:00 John Cornyn flipped position on the filibuster to try to earn Trump endorsement 15:30 Republicans likely don’t have the votes to kill the filibuster 16:15 Contrasting and comparing Democrats HR1 vs Republicans SAVE Act 18:15 SAVE Act requires proof of citizenship to vote 19:00 Trump wants a total ban on mail in voting and all voting on one day 20:00 If GOP kills filibuster & Dems win senate, Dems won’t restore it 20:45 If passed in a partisan vote, SAVE Act would delegitimize democracy 21:45 If rules change based on who’s in power, the public will lose faith in process 23:30 We’re seeing a collision of two partisan visions over who gets to vote 24:30 SAVE Act makes voter registration a “show your papers” event 25:30 There’s a massive gap between bill passed in house & what Trump wants 26:00 Trump is demanding a bill loaded with culture war items 27:30 If Republicans jam through the SAVE Act, it could juice Democratic turnout 29:00 Voter ID isn’t controversial with the public 29:45 There’s 80% support for proof of citizenship when registering to vote 30:15 Republicans believe it should be harder to vote, Dems think it should be easier 31:30 Trump is taking popular ideas and packaging them in a bill that is toxic 32:30 Stability in a democracy doesn’t come from a 51% majority 33:45 34k people in Arizona were barred from state elections, but had federal carve out 35:00 Almost no voter fraud has actually been found 36:00 If you change name or get married, SAVE Act treats you as first time voter 37:30 America already makes life harder on women, SAVE Act makes it worse 38:15 The SAVE Act goes WELL beyond voter ID 39:00 Republicans are writing a bill to make Trump’s bullshit real 39:45 Trump will blame failure to pass SAVE Act for election losses in midterms 41:00 SAVE Act would disenfranchise or add barriers for millions of voters 42:00 Individual citizens have no constitutional right to vote 42:45 State constitutions provide voting guar

Chuck Todd opens with a grim inventory of an administration besieged on every front as the Iran war enters its twelfth day with no exit strategy in sight. He then pivots to the SAVE Act — the Republican voting bill that has 50 Senate votes but faces a filibuster John Thune admits he likely can't break. He walks through the details that go well beyond simple voter ID: the bill requires documentary proof of citizenship to register, treats women who change their name through marriage as first-time voters, and Trump is demanding additions including a near-total ban on mail-in voting — turning what polls show is an 80%-popular concept into a toxic package that could disenfranchise millions. He notes that John Cornyn flipped his filibuster position to chase Trump's Texas endorsement, warns that if Republicans nuke the filibuster and Democrats later win the Senate they won't restore it, and argues that Republicans are essentially writing legislation to make Trump's false fraud claims real — while Trump is already setting up the SAVE Act's inevitable failure as his preemptive excuse for midterm losses that have nothing to do with voting rules and everything to do with an unpopular war, a tanking economy, and a completely unserious leader running the Pentagon. Ultimately, he argues that partisan changes to voting rule destroy trust in democracy, whether it be the SAVE Act, or Democrats efforts to pass HR1. Then, Fiona Hill — who served on the National Security Council under three presidents and became a household name during Trump's first impeachment — joins the Chuck ToddCast for a deeply alarming assessment of the Iran war now entering its second week, with Operation Epic Fury having metastasized into a multi-front conflict spanning nine countries, oil prices surging past $100 a barrel, and hundreds of thousands of travelers stranded across the Middle East. Hill dismantles the geopolitical chessboard with surgical precision, explaining that while there is no formal alliance between Russia and Iran and that the relationship is deeply transactional, with Iran having provided Russia with Shahed drones and helped build a drone factory. She argues that China is letting the U.S. "rope-a-dope" itself, sitting back alongside Russia to watch America bleed resources and credibility in yet another Middle Eastern quagmire. She flags the glaring double standard in the administration's diplomacy: envoy Steve Witkoff refused to take the Iranians at their word during nuclear negotiations in Geneva but accepted Russian assurances at face value. The conversation turns existential as Hill warns that Trump's adventurism — which never faced serious consequences through Venezuela or the June 2025 strikes that made Iran look like a paper tiger — has now collided with reality. Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant successor, but none of those hopes have materialized. Hill calls it an Afghanistan-and-Iraq-level jam with even less global credibility.. They raise the chilling question of whether Xi Jinping might prioritize seizing Taiwan while America is overextended, observes that NORAD doesn't function without Canada and the Nordic countries that Trump has alienated, warns that the damage to America's reputation will last decades, and notes that individual U.S. states are already setting up their own diplomatic representation with foreign countries to fill the vacuum. They close with a striking contrast: unlike Russians, Americans can still vote their way out of tyranny — but the window in which that remains true may be narrowing, as we are likely entering a post-American empire period. Finally, he answers listeners’ question in the “Ask Chuck” segment and celebrates the start of March Madness.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:30 There’s no easy way for Trump to get out of Iran 05:30 It’s become clear US responsible for bombing Iranian school 06:15 FBI warns California law enforcement of threat of Iranian drone strikes 07:15 The fallout from the war is complicated & Trump can’t just turn it off 08:30 Drone attack that killed US soldiers far more serious than initially reported 09:15 Republicans in congress are demoralized & don’t know what to run on 10:45 Pentagon bars press for publishing “unflattering” photos o

Interview Only w/ John Adams - Bringing Local News Back From The Brink John Adams, editor of the Montana Free Press, joins the Chuck Toddcast to make the case that local journalism has been in crisis — and that saving it might be one of the most important things Americans can do for their democracy. Adams is on the show to promote Local News Day on April 9th, a nationwide effort involving 700 local newsrooms aimed not at fundraising but at spreading awareness. He traces the origin story of the Montana Free Press back to his appearance in the documentary "Dark Money", a story about outside money quietly trying to buy Montana politics at the local level with zero disclosure — and the journalists best positioned to expose it were losing their jobs. Adams argues the economics of local news changed drastically as advertising revenue collapsed and audiences became hypnotized by social media and smartphones, but that the need and appetite for local reporting never went away. The conversation turns to the deeper consequences of local news deserts: the loss of trusted community voices created a vacuum that bred distrust in the national press, because people no longer had local "character references" — journalists they knew and saw at the grocery store — to anchor their understanding of how media works. Adams warns that the rise of AI-generated misinformation makes reliable local sources more important than ever, noting that while younger people tend to be savvier at spotting junk online, older generations are particularly vulnerable. They close by noting that strong local news doesn't just serve democracy — it helps local businesses target customers, creating an economic ecosystem that benefits everyone — and that journalism ultimately has to reach enough people to really matter, which is exactly what Local News Day at localnewsday.org is designed to help make possible. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 John Adams (Montana Free Press) joins the Chuck ToddCast 00:45 The importance of local news & purpose of Local News Day, April 9th 03:15 Why create Local News Day? 04:15 The crisis with local news isn’t new, been happening for years 05:30 It’s easier to get international news than news from your community 06:30 The need and appetite for local news has never gone away 07:45 Local news has become en vogue like a local craft beer 09:45 People embrace their local identity 12:15 Origin story of the Montana Free Press 12:45 “Dark Money” documentary about fight against Montana copper barons 15:00 Big outside money was trying to buy Montana politics at the local level 17:15 None of the outside money was disclosed 18:00 John lost his reporting job during the 2015 legislative session 20:00 Three of the most experienced local journalists were jobless 20:30 MFP founded on principle that local journalism is essential as a nonprofit 22:15 Economics of local news changed drastically, made newspapers expensive 24:00 Audiences are highly distracted by social media & smartphones 25:30 We need good new sources of information to combat misinfo from AI 26:45 Younger people are savvier online, older generations struggle with AI 28:30 It’s easier to trust local news sources because they’re in your community 29:15 Journalists have to almost “sell” their info for people to see it 31:30 It’s important to report on what your audience cares about 33:00 AP reporter in Montana was attacked and then the reporter was doxxed 35:15 Loss of local news character references created distrust in national press 36:30 Importance of local “service journalism” 40:00 Recreating the equivalent of morning drive news radio as a podcast 40:45 Using google trends questions to help inform your journalism 42:00 Algorithms only give people what they want, not what they need to know 42:45 Local news at its best reflects what the community cares about 43:45 Localnewsday.org is where people can find ways to help & connect 45:30 The better local news does, the better local businesses can target customers 46:30 700 local newsrooms

Chuck Todd surveys a political landscape where multiple crises are converging on the Trump administration simultaneously — and none of them are going well. The Iran war, which Chuck reiterates is a war of choice, appears to be devouring Trump's presidency: the administration burned through nearly $6 billion in munitions in just two days, is sending contradictory messages of reassurance and escalation that appear designed to manipulate markets, and seems to be operating entirely by the seat of its pants. He warns that asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States, that energy markets are in turmoil as Iran deliberately tries to inflict economic pain, that the threat of stagflation and energy shortages is very real, and that Trump's threat to use the Fed to shape oil markets has alarmed economists.  He argues that if Trump could undo the war he would — but this won't be Venezuela 2.0, because there's no opposition on the ground to coordinate with, you can't change a regime without boots on the ground that Trump won't commit, and if the regime simply survives, that counts as victory for Iran. Meanwhile, Trump naively buys Putin's claim that Russia isn't helping Iran with targeting, and that new polling shows a majority of Americans oppose the war — with MAGA influencers notably against it even as older rank-and-file supporters stick with Trump. Beyond Iran, Chuck  hits the Ticketmaster settlement as proof that Trump talks a big populist game but the lobbyists always win, warns that a partial DHS shutdown risks snarling air travel and punishing the flying public while ICE has already been funded, and cautions Democrats not to overplay their hand on the shutdown. Then, John Adams, editor of the Montana Free Press, joins the Chuck Toddcast to make the case that local journalism has been in crisis — and that saving it might be one of the most important things Americans can do for their democracy. Adams is on the show to promote Local News Day on April 9th, a nationwide effort involving 700 local newsrooms aimed not at fundraising but at spreading awareness. He traces the origin story of the Montana Free Press back to his appearance in the documentary "Dark Money", a story about outside money quietly trying to buy Montana politics at the local level with zero disclosure — and the journalists best positioned to expose it were losing their jobs. Adams argues the economics of local news changed drastically as advertising revenue collapsed and audiences became hypnotized by social media and smartphones, but that the need and appetite for local reporting never went away. The conversation turns to the deeper consequences of local news deserts: the loss of trusted community voices created a vacuum that bred distrust in the national press, because people no longer had local "character references" — journalists they knew and saw at the grocery store — to anchor their understanding of how media works. Adams warns that the rise of AI-generated misinformation makes reliable local sources more important than ever, noting that while younger people tend to be savvier at spotting junk online, older generations are particularly vulnerable. They close by noting that strong local news doesn't just serve democracy — it helps local businesses target customers, creating an economic ecosystem that benefits everyone — and that journalism ultimately has to reach enough people to really matter, which is exactly what Local News Day at localnewsday.org is designed to help make possible. Finally, on the day of the Mississippi primaries, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide races in Mississippi and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 00:30 Despite runoff, Dems shouldn’t get hopes up for MTG’s district 01:30 Bennie Thompson survives primary challenge in Mississippi 07:15 War of choice in Iran could devour Trump’s presidency 08:00 Administration messaging appears to be manipulating markets 09:30 We got bot

Chuck Todd surveys a political landscape where multiple crises are converging on the Trump administration simultaneously — and none of them are going well. The Iran war, which Chuck reiterates is a war of choice, appears to be devouring Trump's presidency: the administration burned through nearly $6 billion in munitions in just two days, is sending contradictory messages of reassurance and escalation that appear designed to manipulate markets, and seems to be operating entirely by the seat of its pants. He warns that asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States, that energy markets are in turmoil as Iran deliberately tries to inflict economic pain, that the threat of stagflation and energy shortages is very real, and that Trump's threat to use the Fed to shape oil markets has alarmed economists.  He argues that if Trump could undo the war he would — but this won't be Venezuela 2.0, because there's no opposition on the ground to coordinate with, you can't change a regime without boots on the ground that Trump won't commit, and if the regime simply survives, that counts as victory for Iran. Meanwhile, Trump naively buys Putin's claim that Russia isn't helping Iran with targeting, and that new polling shows a majority of Americans oppose the war — with MAGA influencers notably against it even as older rank-and-file supporters stick with Trump. Beyond Iran, Chuck hits the Ticketmaster settlement as proof that Trump talks a big populist game but the lobbyists always win, warns that a partial DHS shutdown risks snarling air travel and punishing the flying public while ICE has already been funded, and cautions Democrats not to overplay their hand on the shutdown. Finally, on the day of the Mississippi primaries, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide races in Mississippi and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast   Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 00:30 Despite runoff, Dems shouldn’t get hopes up for MTG’s district 01:30 Bennie Thompson survives primary challenge in Mississippi 07:15 War of choice in Iran could devour Trump’s presidency 08:00 Administration messaging appears to be manipulating markets 09:30 We got both a message of reassurance and escalation on Monday 10:30 Administration seems to be operating by the seat of their pants 12:00 Administration has eroded trust in institutions for years 13:00 Eventually markets will stop reacting to government statements 13:30 Administration burned through nearly $6B in munitions in two days 14:30 Asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States 15:15 Energy markets are in turmoil, Iran wants to create economic pain 16:00 Threat of stagflation & energy shortages are very real 16:45 Trump threatens to use the fed to shape oil markets, alarming economists 17:30 Partial shutdown of DHS agents risks snarling air travel 18:30 When do Dems declare victory on partial shutdown? Noem was fired 19:45 ICE has already been funded. Shutdown punishes the flying public 20:30 Democrats need to be careful not to overplay their hand in shutdown 21:00 If Trump could undo the war, he would. It won’t be Venezuela 2.0 22:15 We’ve always paid to rebuild countries we’ve bombed 23:00 If the regime survives, that’s victory for Iran 24:15 Can’t change regime without boots on the ground, which Trump won’t do 25:15 There’s no opposition on the ground to coordinate with 26:00 Trump buys story from Putin that Russia isn’t assisting Iran w/targeting 26:45 U.S. using up munitions headed to Ukraine is best case for Russia 28:00 DOJ agrees to incredibly friendly settlement with Ticketmaster 28:45 Live Nation lobbyists went straight to Trump, then deal is cut 29:15 Trump talks a big game on populism, but the lobbyists always win 30:45 Young independents hate corporate power & Trump sides with corporations 31:30 New polling shows majority of Americans are against war with Iran 32:15 Older voters continue to be strongest supporters of Trump & war 33:00 MAGA influencers are against war, but rank & file support Trum

Chuck Todd opens the episode with a blunt assessment: it's starting to feel like the beginning of the end of Donald Trump's presidency. From an open-ended war in Iran to a cratering stock market, Trump finds himself sinking deeper into what Chuck calls "presidential quicksand," with every show of strength only revealing more weakness. Chuck breaks down the staggering early costs of the Iran conflict — over 1,000 casualties and $6 billion spent in just one week — and asks the question no one in Washington seems willing to answer: does anyone actually have an exit strategy? On the economy, the latest jobs report is sending ominous signals. With slow growth, rising prices, and tariff uncertainty dominating the economic discourse, Chuck makes the case that the swing voters who put Trump back in the White House for his perceived economic expertise are the first ones who'll walk away when their wallets take the hit. Corporate America is also starting to find its backbone. From Anthropic refusing to strip safety guardrails to Netflix walking away from a bad deal, Chuck sees a telling pattern: companies are pushing back on a president who looks weak. Finally, Chuck takes an illuminating detour into his "Time Machine" segment, tracing how communication technology has permanently reshaped the American presidency, from Alexander Graham Bell’s first phone call, to FDR's fireside chats, all the way to Trump’s constant social media use. Plus, Chuck answers listener questions touching subjects like the potential similarities between Pearl Harbor and Trump’s Iran strikes, NIL in college sports, what's really going on with Democrats’ reactions to politicians like John Fetterman straying from the party line, and James Talarico’s bid for Congress.   Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 7:00 Trump's presidency entering "presidential quicksand" 9:00 Iran war: an expensive political disaster 11:00 Trump has no strategic endgame in Iran 12:00 Why regime change in Iran won't work 15:00 Trump's market collapse & terrible jobs report 19:00 Swing voters abandoning Trump 21:00 Supreme Court striking down Trump's tariffs 23:00 Corporate America pushing back: Anthropic, Netflix, small businesses 32:00 Republican label becoming a liability 36:00 Montana: Daines retirement stuns state 39:00 Trump no longer an outsider, now seen as the establishment 43:00 Biden/Afghanistan parallel: one bad moment can permanently crater approval ratings 57:00 Time Machine: how technology transformed the presidency 59:00 Lincoln's telegraph, FDR's fireside chats, and the evolution of presidential communication 1:09:00 How communication technology reshaped corporate leadership 1:11:00 Technology's role in weakening Congress 1:13:00 Ask Chuck: Iran vs. Pearl Harbor comparison 1:15:00 Trump's inane college football roundtable 1:31:00 Fetterman & Sinema: Democrats' narrowing ideology 1:36:00 Question about changing county borders 1:40:00 Talarico's congressional bid 1:42:00 World Baseball ClassicSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Legendary documentarian Ken Burns joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sweeping conversation about American history, the craft of telling it honestly, and why historical perspective has never mattered more than it does right now. Burns addresses head-on the criticism that his work is "woke," arguing that his documentaries have a perspective but it's not left versus right — he wants to call balls and strikes, and the truth shouldn't be something people fear. He offers a striking defense of nuance, noting that the Republican Party has been the most successful political party on earth and that his life's work has been about making films about both the U.S. and "us" — the complicated, contradictory people who built and continue to shape the country. Burns discusses his latest project on the American Revolution, which he insists he didn't intentionally time to the 250th anniversary, and reveals he's also working on a film about Reconstruction and potentially a documentary on the Cold War. He walks through his rigorous process for evaluating source material, the challenge of needing great actors to bring the founders to life, and how those founders were obsessively focused on virtue — creating something genuinely new in human history while writing a Constitution brilliant enough to endure centuries but unable to foresee Congress voluntarily abdicating its own power. The conversation takes a fascinating philosophical turn as they explore the recurring patterns of American history: the manufacture of fear as a tool for authoritarians, the repeated failure of using government to force social change, and the way religion has been wielded as a cudgel by governments despite the founders being explicitly against a national religion. Burns offers a revealing window into his methodology, explaining that you need 25 to 30 years of distance before you can responsibly cover a historical subject, and that Trump's presidency has effectively constipated the scholarship on the Obama era because the two will be forever intertwined in history. He notes that views on Vietnam's legacy shifted vastly over decades, and that the passage of time is essential for triangulating toward truth — take historians for their knowledge, not always their perspective.    Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Ken Burns joins the Chuck ToddCast 00:45 No shortage of American history topics to cover 01:45 Having historical perspective is incredibly important 03:30 American revolution one of the most important events in history 04:00 Criticism of his documentary as being “woke”, fearful of the truth 05:15 The Republican party has been the most successful party on earth 06:15 Making films about the U.S. and also “Us” 07:00 Ken’s documentaries have a perspective, but it’s not left vs. right 07:45 You want to call “ball & strikes” 09:15 Making a film about the Reconstruction period 10:00 The author’s politics matter when consuming historical books 11:15 People want historical events to match their worldview 12:30 The process for evaluating source material for his documentaries 14:45 The founders were incredibly focused on virtue 15:30 Needed great actors to bring the founders to life 16:15 The American experiment was something new in human history 17:00 Didn’t mean to time “The American Revolution” release on 250th  18:30 Constitution is a brilliant document, didn’t foresee congress abdicating 20:30 The manufacture of fear empowers authoritarians 22:30 There’s so many historical items with which to tell the story 25:00 Using government as instrument of social change 26:15 Prohibition was going to happen with or without the Spanish Flu pandemic 29:00 Forcing social change via government was never going to work well 31:00 We don’t teach the history of religion out of fear 32:45 Deism became the religious choice of many of the founders 33:15 Religion has been used as a cudgel by governments 34:00 Founders were explicitly against a national religion 37:00 The story of America&rs

Chuck Todd opens the episode with a blunt assessment: it's starting to feel like the beginning of the end of Donald Trump's presidency. From an open-ended war in Iran to a cratering stock market, Trump finds himself sinking deeper into what Chuck calls "presidential quicksand," with every show of strength only revealing more weakness. Chuck breaks down the staggering early costs of the Iran conflict — over 1,000 casualties and $6 billion spent in just one week — and asks the question no one in Washington seems willing to answer: does anyone actually have an exit strategy? On the economy, the latest jobs report is sending ominous signals. With slow growth, rising prices, and tariff uncertainty dominating the economic discourse, Chuck makes the case that the swing voters who put Trump back in the White House for his perceived economic expertise are the first ones who'll walk away when their wallets take the hit. Corporate America is also starting to find its backbone. From Anthropic refusing to strip safety guardrails to Netflix walking away from a bad deal, Chuck sees a telling pattern: companies are pushing back on a president who looks weak. Legendary documentarian Ken Burns joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sweeping conversation about American history, the craft of telling it honestly, and why historical perspective has never mattered more than it does right now. Burns addresses head-on the criticism that his work is "woke," arguing that his documentaries have a perspective but it's not left versus right — he wants to call balls and strikes, and the truth shouldn't be something people fear. He offers a striking defense of nuance, noting that the Republican Party has been the most successful political party on earth and that his life's work has been about making films about both the U.S. and "us" — the complicated, contradictory people who built and continue to shape the country. Burns discusses his latest project on the American Revolution, which he insists he didn't intentionally time to the 250th anniversary, and reveals he's also working on a film about Reconstruction and potentially a documentary on the Cold War. He walks through his rigorous process for evaluating source material, the challenge of needing great actors to bring the founders to life, and how those founders were obsessively focused on virtue — creating something genuinely new in human history while writing a Constitution brilliant enough to endure centuries but unable to foresee Congress voluntarily abdicating its own power. The conversation takes a fascinating philosophical turn as they explore the recurring patterns of American history: the manufacture of fear as a tool for authoritarians, the repeated failure of using government to force social change, and the way religion has been wielded as a cudgel by governments despite the founders being explicitly against a national religion. Burns offers a revealing window into his methodology, explaining that you need 25 to 30 years of distance before you can responsibly cover a historical subject, and that Trump's presidency has effectively constipated the scholarship on the Obama era because the two will be forever intertwined in history. He notes that views on Vietnam's legacy shifted vastly over decades, and that the passage of time is essential for triangulating toward truth — take historians for their knowledge, not always their perspective. Finally, Chuck takes an illuminating detour into his "Time Machine" segment, tracing how communication technology has permanently reshaped the American presidency, from Alexander Graham Bell’s first phone call, to FDR's fireside chats, all the way to Trump’s constant social media use. Plus, Chuck answers listener questions touching subjects like the potential similarities between Pearl Harbor and Trump’s Iran strikes, NIL in college sports, what's really going on with Democrats’ reactions to politicians like John Fetterman straying from the party line, and James Talarico’s bid for Congress.   Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 7

Political commentator Chris Cillizza — who co-hosted the live Texas primary night coverage with Chuck— rejoins the show to dissect the aftermath of the Texas results and the broader 2026 landscape. With Jasmine Crockett having conceded to James Talarico and the Paxton-Cornyn race headed to a runoff that's essentially a coin flip, Todd and Cillizza dig into what Talarico's victory really means: he dominated in counties Bernie Sanders won, Latino voters broke decisively his way, and his ground game should terrify Republicans — but they caution against mistaking someone who is temperamentally moderate and perceived as "nice" for being politically moderate. They argue that Texas Democrats, having lost for so long, were desperate for something new, and that constant losing has made electability matter more than ideology — Democrats had to vote with their heads, not their hearts. They assess Crockett's future (great political athlete, bad campaign infrastructure, potential to compete for Ted Cruz's seat someday), debate whether Democrats should meddle in the GOP runoff to boost Paxton, and note that Talarico’s floor is around 47-48% — meaning Texas is genuinely in play. The conversation then expands to the national map and the broader forces shaping 2026. They unpack Kamala Harris's late endorsement of Crockett — which came too late to matter and reinforces the same knock Biden got about indecisiveness — and Gavin Newsom's conspicuous shift on Israel in front of a liberal audience. They contrast that with the authenticity of politicians like Bernie Sanders and early-career JD Vance, noting that Vance has now lost his anti-interventionist identity after backing the Iran war while the administration's narrative spinning on the conflict is "an absolute mess." Looking ahead, they agree that the perception of the economy in June will be what drives the midterms, that the war will consume the administration — especially given the embarrassing lack of an evacuation plan for Americans in the Middle East, Trump's biggest critique of Biden — and that prediction markets now give Democrats a 45% chance of winning the Senate. They close by surveying pickup opportunities in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, flagging independent candidates in the Midwest who know they can't win as Democrats, and declaring that 2026 will be the clearest preview yet of how 2028 plays out.   Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chris Cillizza joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:30 Jasmine Crockett concedes race to James Talarico 02:15 Race between Paxton & Cornyn essentially a wash 03:00 Big question is “Can Cornyn get to 50%” 03:45 Public is getting tired with the bomb throwers in politics 05:45 Talarico did well in counties that Bernie Sanders won 06:45 Texas Dems have been losing forever, desperate for “new” 08:30 Don’t mistake politically & temperamentally “moderate” 09:15 Being perceived as “nice” goes a long way 10:30 Online Dems are mad, but many want a change in tone 12:00 If Platner beats Mills by 15, Talarico data point feels like outlier 12:45 Have constant Dem losses in TX made “electability” more important? 13:45 Dems in Texas have to vote with their head and not their heart 15:30 Crockett is a great political athlete with bad campaign infrastructure 16:30 Talarico had a great ground game, should scare Republicans 17:45 Crockett could compete for Ted Cruz’s senate seat 18:30 Unlikely this is the last we hear from Crockett in politics 19:30 Crockett did well where she was well known 20:30 Kamala Harris endorsement came too late for Crockett 21:30 Harris shows herself to be incredibly risk averse 24:15 We’ll get the full story on the late endorsement in six months 25:00 Harris shares the same knock Biden got… can’t make decisions 25:45 Newsom signals shift on Israel in front of a very liberal audience 27:00 Newsom just pandering? Or is it a genuine flip 28:30 Gavin Newsom is a politician to his core 30:00 Newsom looked like he was desp

Chuck Todd delivers a blistering assessment of Trump's Iran war, arguing that the conflict has gone sideways in virtually every way imaginable — and that the lack of consequences for Trump's past norm-breaking gave him a false sense of impunity that led him here. Todd traces the logic: Iran looked like a paper tiger after the limited strikes in 2025, Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant regime insider to step forward — but none of those hopes have materialized. Instead, the forces that wanted to overthrow the regime have gone underground, the CIA is now arming and training Kurds in what Chuck bluntly asks amounts to deliberately triggering a civil war, Iran has inflicted real damage on multiple Gulf states, and stranded Americans were told by the State Department they were on their own because the administration made no evacuation plan whatsoever. He zeroes in on the damning timeline: if the administration had time to move an armada into position, they had time to warn American citizens. He flags that passing a war supplemental will be a brutal vote for GOP members, that JD Vance now has to defend a war antithetical to his entire political identity, and pivots to the Texas runoff noting that James Talarico's biggest vulnerability is being more progressive than his nice-guy persona suggests, but that demeanor may be his superpower in a cycle where voters are exhausted by bomb-throwers. Political commentator Chris Cillizza — who co-hosted the live Texas primary night coverage with Chuck— rejoins the show to dissect the aftermath of the Texas results and the broader 2026 landscape. With Jasmine Crockett having conceded to James Talarico and the Paxton-Cornyn race headed to a runoff that's essentially a coin flip, Todd and Cillizza dig into what Talarico's victory really means: he dominated in counties Bernie Sanders won, Latino voters broke decisively his way, and his ground game should terrify Republicans — but they caution against mistaking someone who is temperamentally moderate and perceived as "nice" for being politically moderate. They argue that Texas Democrats, having lost for so long, were desperate for something new, and that constant losing has made electability matter more than ideology — Democrats had to vote with their heads, not their hearts. They assess Crockett's future (great political athlete, bad campaign infrastructure, potential to compete for Ted Cruz's seat someday), debate whether Democrats should meddle in the GOP runoff to boost Paxton, and note that Talarico’s floor is around 47-48% — meaning Texas is genuinely in play. The conversation then expands to the national map and the broader forces shaping 2026. They unpack Kamala Harris's late endorsement of Crockett — which came too late to matter and reinforces the same knock Biden got about indecisiveness — and Gavin Newsom's conspicuous shift on Israel in front of a liberal audience. They contrast that with the authenticity of politicians like Bernie Sanders and early-career JD Vance, noting that Vance has now lost his anti-interventionist identity after backing the Iran war while the administration's narrative spinning on the conflict is "an absolute mess." Looking ahead, they agree that the perception of the economy in June will be what drives the midterms, that the war will consume the administration — especially given the embarrassing lack of an evacuation plan for Americans in the Middle East, Trump's biggest critique of Biden — and that prediction markets now give Democrats a 45% chance of winning the Senate. They close by surveying pickup opportunities in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, flagging independent candidates in the Midwest who know they can't win as Democrats, and declaring that 2026 will be the clearest preview yet of how 2028 plays out. Finally, he reacts to the breaking news that Montana senator Steve Daines retired minutes before the filing deadline and argues that Republicans will be forced to defend what was a safe seat, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.   Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit c

Chuck Todd delivers a blistering assessment of Trump's Iran war, arguing that the conflict has gone sideways in virtually every way imaginable — and that the lack of consequences for Trump's past norm-breaking gave him a false sense of impunity that led him here. Todd traces the logic: Iran looked like a paper tiger after the limited strikes in 2025, Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant regime insider to step forward — but none of those hopes have materialized. Instead, the forces that wanted to overthrow the regime have gone underground, the CIA is now arming and training Kurds in what Chuck bluntly asks amounts to deliberately triggering a civil war, Iran has inflicted real damage on multiple Gulf states, and stranded Americans were told by the State Department they were on their own because the administration made no evacuation plan whatsoever. He zeroes in on the damning timeline: if the administration had time to move an armada into position, they had time to warn American citizens. He flags that passing a war supplemental will be a brutal vote for GOP members, that JD Vance now has to defend a war antithetical to his entire political identity, and pivots to the Texas runoff noting that James Talarico's biggest vulnerability is being more progressive than his nice-guy persona suggests, but that demeanor may be his superpower in a cycle where voters are exhausted by bomb-throwers. Finally, he reacts to the breaking news that Montana senator Steve Daines retired minutes before the filing deadline and argues that Republicans will be forced to defend what was a safe seat, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.   Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:45 Trump’s war with Iran is not going well for him politically 02:30 Multiple countries have been dragged into a piece of the war 03:30 Lack of consequences for past actions gave Trump sense of impunity 04:45 Iran looked like a paper tiger after strikes in June 2025 05:30 Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it 07:30 Trump hoped for an uprising or a pliant member of the regime 08:45 None of those hopes have materialized  09:30 Forces that wanted to overthrow regime went underground 10:30 The CIA is arming and training Kurds to overthrow the regime 11:45 Are we TRYING to trigger a civil war??? 12:30 Regime change won’t come nearly as easy as Trump thought 13:15 Iran has inflicted damage to multiple gulf states 14:45 You can’t discount Trump’s business relationship as factors for war 16:00 Kushner involved in negotiations and has serious conflicts of interest 17:15 The administration is trying to use Israel as a shield 18:15 Administration made no plan to evacuate stranded Americans 19:00 Clearly was no imminent threat from Iran 20:30 If they had time to move the armada, they had time to warn Americans 21:30 The Iranians weren’t surprised that we were going to attack 22:30 Trump promised Iranian protestors “Help is on the way” - Took 40 days 23:00 State department told stranded Americans they were on their own 24:30 They put thought into the war itself, but not for the consequences 26:30 What’s Plan C? Hoping for a civil war? 27:15 This is Iraq on steroids and we have less credibility globally 28:30 Cost of providing stability in the region is politically unpopular 29:30 It’s a lot easier to start a war than to finish one 30:45 George H.W. Bush had a clean war with Iraq and voters punished him 32:00 When you’re under 80% support with your own party, you’re in trouble 33:30 Trump isn’t an isolationist, he’s a unilateralist. Do what he says 34:45 Passing a supplemental bill for war funding will be tough vote for GOP 36:30 J.D. Vance has to defend a war that’s antithetical to his political identity 37:30 Trump will endorse in Texas primary and expects the other to drop out 38:15 What will Trump offer Paxton to drop out early? 40:45 Republicans can&rs

Chuck Todd breaks down the Texas primary results and finds a political landscape that should terrify the Republican establishment. Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are headed to a runoff on the GOP side, but the headline number is stunning: Democrats posted a higher overall vote total than Republicans in the Texas primary, a seismic signal in what has long been the country's biggest red state. He credits Talarico's viral Colbert moment with giving him a massive boost, notes that Latino voters broke decisively for Talarico over Jasmine Crockett — who ran an unconventional campaign and is unlikely to concede quickly — and argues that a Paxton vs. Talarico general election would genuinely put Texas in play. He walks through the strategic calculus: history favors Paxton in a runoff, Cornyn has outperformed polling but a Cornyn nomination would draw less national Democratic investment in the race, and Democrats should have the budget to compete in Texas regardless — because Texas is "nice to have" for Democrats but "must have" for Republicans, and if Democrats win even once there, it opens the floodgates. He also flags Dan Crenshaw losing after failing to secure Trump's endorsement, the razor-thin two-vote margin for the state senate campaign in North Carolina, and a broader pattern of bad developments piling up for the GOP — capped by Trump stoking voter skepticism with an unpopular Iran war. His verdict: this is the worst possible start to an election cycle for Republicans, because it's easy to start a war and very hard to end one. Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time Texas statewide elections and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:00 Ken Paxton & John Cornyn headed to a runoff 02:30 Democrats had a higher vote total than Republicans in Texas primary 03:45 Talarico’s moment with Stephen Colbert gave him a huge boost 05:00 Several house races headed to a run off 07:00 Latino voters broke fairly decisively for Talarico 07:45 Crockett didn’t run a conventional campaign 08:30 Crockett is unlikely to concede quickly 10:00 We never got the full story on the Colbert moment 11:15 Fighter vs Uniter is the divide amongst Democrats 13:00 If Cornyn can stay ahead of Paxton, that will matter to Trump 14:30 Talarico being the nominee will make establishment Republicans nervous 16:00 History says it’s more likely that Paxton wins the runoff  18:00 Cornyn has outperformed the polling 18:30 With Paxton & Talarico as the nominees, Texas is in play  19:30 Do senate Democrats play in the Republican runoff? 20:30 If it’s Cornyn vs. Talarico, the national party won’t help Talarico as much 22:00 Will Dems spend on Alaska, Iowa and Nebraska? 23:15 Dems should have the budget to target Texas 24:00 Texas is “nice to have” for Dems, it’s “must have” for Republicans 25:30 If Democrats win once in Texas, it opens the door for more wins 26:45 Two vote margin for the state senate president in North Carolina 27:45 Dan Crenshaw didn’t get Trump endorsement and lost 29:15 Bad developments keep happening for the Republican party 30:15 Trump is only stoking voter skepticism with Iran war 31:30 It’s easy to start a war, it’s hard to end one 32:00 Worst possible start to an election cycle for the Republicans 41:30 ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide campaigns in Texas history 43:30 #5 2006 Governor’s race 49:00 #4 1994 Governor’s race 52:00 #3 1924 Governor’s race 55:30 #2 1962 special election for senate 1:00:15 #1 1948 Democratic senate primary 1:07:45 Honorable mentions 1:10:15 Ask Chuck 1:10:30 Take on Pete Hegseth’s briefing on the Iran war? What are the objectives? 1:16:45 Why is a war powers resolution needed? How can congress restrain Trump? 1:20:00 Will this war be better received if not launched during tax season? 1:24:30 Explaining complex political & world events to your kids?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy informatio

Chuck Todd breaks down the Texas primary results and finds a political landscape that should terrify the Republican establishment. Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are headed to a runoff on the GOP side, but the headline number is stunning: Democrats posted a higher overall vote total than Republicans in the Texas primary, a seismic signal in what has long been the country's biggest red state. He credits Talarico's viral Colbert moment with giving him a massive boost, notes that Latino voters broke decisively for Talarico over Jasmine Crockett — who ran an unconventional campaign and is unlikely to concede quickly — and argues that a Paxton vs. Talarico general election would genuinely put Texas in play. He walks through the strategic calculus: history favors Paxton in a runoff, Cornyn has outperformed polling but a Cornyn nomination would draw less national Democratic investment in the race, and Democrats should have the budget to compete in Texas regardless — because Texas is "nice to have" for Democrats but "must have" for Republicans, and if Democrats win even once there, it opens the floodgates. He also flags Dan Crenshaw losing after failing to secure Trump's endorsement, the razor-thin two-vote margin for the state senate campaign in North Carolina, and a broader pattern of bad developments piling up for the GOP — capped by Trump stoking voter skepticism with an unpopular Iran war. His verdict: this is the worst possible start to an election cycle for Republicans, because it's easy to start a war and very hard to end one. Then, Oscar-nominated filmmaker Josh Seftel joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss All the Empty Rooms, his devastating Netflix documentary short that chronicles the untouched bedrooms of children killed in school shootings since Sandy Hook. Seftel describes a country that has grown numb to over 100 school shootings just this year — where the reporting cycle moves on before victims' stories can truly be told — and explains how the simple, visceral act of standing in a dead child's bedroom forces viewers to feel something that statistics never could. He reveals that many parents have kept these rooms exactly as their children left them, preserving even the smell, creating what amounts to sacred spaces frozen in time.Chuck draws the parallel to the decision to show Emmett Till's open casket, and Seftel argues these painful stories must be told regardless of how uncomfortable they make us, because imagery can be more powerful than the spoken word. What makes the film's approach so striking — and so strategically effective — is what it leaves out. The word "gun" is never mentioned, a deliberate choice to avoid triggering the political reflexes that shut down conversation before it starts. And it's working: Seftel shares that a Second Amendment enthusiast changed his mind after seeing the photos of empty rooms, and even a Sandy Hook denier reached out after watching. The film's funders didn't want to make money — they wanted to make change — and Netflix's global distribution has given it a massive reach. Seftel says the conversation has to start with one simple question — "How do we keep kids safe at school?" — and that the film intentionally got better as it got shorter, stripping away prescription and polemic to let the silence of those rooms do the work. Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time Texas statewide elections and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:00 Ken Paxton & John Cornyn headed to a runoff 02:30 Democrats had a higher vote total than Republicans in Texas primary 03:45 Talarico’s moment with Stephen Colbert gave him a huge boost 05:00 Several house races headed to a run off 07:00 Latino voters broke fairly decisively for Talarico 07:45 Crockett didn’t run a conventional campaign 08:30 Crockett is unlikely to concede quickly 10:00 We never got the full story on the Colbert moment 11:15 Fighter vs Uniter is the divide amongst

Oscar-nominated filmmaker Josh Seftel joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss All the Empty Rooms, his devastating Netflix documentary short that chronicles the untouched bedrooms of children killed in school shootings since Sandy Hook. Seftel describes a country that has grown numb to over 100 school shootings just this year — where the reporting cycle moves on before victims' stories can truly be told — and explains how the simple, visceral act of standing in a dead child's bedroom forces viewers to feel something that statistics never could. He reveals that many parents have kept these rooms exactly as their children left them, preserving even the smell, creating what amounts to sacred spaces frozen in time.Chuck draws the parallel to the decision to show Emmett Till's open casket, and Seftel argues these painful stories must be told regardless of how uncomfortable they make us, because imagery can be more powerful than the spoken word. What makes the film's approach so striking — and so strategically effective — is what it leaves out. The word "gun" is never mentioned, a deliberate choice to avoid triggering the political reflexes that shut down conversation before it starts. And it's working: Seftel shares that a Second Amendment enthusiast changed his mind after seeing the photos of empty rooms, and even a Sandy Hook denier reached out after watching. The film's funders didn't want to make money — they wanted to make change — and Netflix's global distribution has given it a massive reach. Seftel says the conversation has to start with one simple question — "How do we keep kids safe at school?" — and that the film intentionally got better as it got shorter, stripping away prescription and polemic to let the silence of those rooms do the work. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Josh Seftel joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:45 People are surprised by the portrayal in “All the Empty Rooms” 02:15 Public has grown to accept over 100 school shootings a year 03:00 Seeing the empty rooms of victims forces you to feel something 04:30 Why has mass shooting frequency been accelerating? 06:00 Does media coverage of shootings plant the seed for more? 07:15 Says a lot about American psyche that True Crime is so popular 08:30 Focus of the doc is on victims, not the shooters 09:00 Asked parents of every child killed since Sandy Hook to film their room 12:00 Media that means to come back to tell victims stories aren’t able to 13:00 Stories must be told, regardless of how painful. Like Emmit Til  14:15 Many parents kept their slain children’s rooms untouched 15:15 Parents want to preserve the smell of their children 16:15 How did you compartmentalize when making this doc? 18:15 The hope of the doc is that everyone can feel the weight of the loss 19:30 People with the power to fix this problem need to see this doc 21:00 The word “Gun” is never mentioned, didn’t want to turn off viewers 22:45 Photos of empty rooms led 2A enthusiast to change his mind 23:30 Got an email from a Sandy Hook denier that watched the doc 25:30 The doc paints a 3D image of the victims, that gets missed normally 28:00 Parents choose to grieve & respond in different ways 30:00 Each family & parent has a different relationship with the empty room 31:45 Some families want to move, but can’t bring themselves to pack up room 33:30 Was it hard not to get prescriptive? 36:00 Conversation must start with “How do we keep kids safe at school?” 37:00 The film got better as it got shorter 38:00 Imagery can be more powerful than spoken word 39:15 Streaming on Netflix allows for far wider distribution  40:30 Funders for the doc didn’t want to make money, they wanted to make change 44:00 The topic wasn’t just powerful, it was visually powerfulSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a searing assessment of a war he calls one of choice, not necessity. He argues that "ends justify the means" sums up everything about Trump's presidency, noting that the rationale for the war has shifted multiple times, there was no smoking gun incident to prompt the strikes, the administration's credibility with the public is extremely low, and Trump's own surrogates spent years warning that Democrats would start a war with Iran. He questions whether the U.S. got boxed in by Netanyahu and whether Trump is simply looking for his own Delcy Rodriguez-style compliant leader in Tehran, pointing out the absurdity of calling on Iran's military to surrender without clarifying to whom. He warns that regime change is a tall order that gives America enormous responsibility it isn't prepared for, that oil prices are set to soar with massive domestic political consequences, and that the prior cuts to Voice of America were a shortsighted mistake now that winning hearts and minds actually matters. He warns that if unilateral executive war-making becomes normalized, America will have fundamentally changed its republic. He closes by pivoting to the Texas primary, where Talarico appears to have momentum heading into election day, Trump has refused to endorse in the GOP race leaving Cornyn exposed, and total primary turnout will serve as a critical bellwether for November's midterms. Finally, ahead of the Texas primaries on Tuesday, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Texas’s declaration of independence from Mexico & the unique forces that shaped the state’s “Lone Star” mentality. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:00 “Ends justify the means” sums up everything about Trump’s presidency 06:45 The administration’s credibility with the public is extremely low 07:30 Military sources are less likely to lie to reporters than political ones 08:30 The rationale for the war has changed multiple times 09:15 There was no smoking gun incident to prompt the war 10:30 Regime change is a tall order & gives us more responsibility 12:00 Trump has called for the Iranian military to surrender… but to whom? 12:45 Cuts to Voice of America was a shortsighted mistake 13:30 After massacre of protesters, there was a humanitarian case for strikes 15:00 Is Trump looking for his own Delcy Rodriguez in Iran? 15:30 Did the U.S. get boxed in by Netanyahu? 16:30 This a war of choice, not a war of necessity  17:15 Trump & surrogates warned for years that Dems would start a war with Iran 18:00 Trump has targeted two world leaders in less than a year 19:00 The administration has created a massive political problem 19:30 Trump has given up domestically, focused on foreign policy legacy 20:30 Trump doesn’t think about consequences beyond what’s good for him 21:15 This war will create an identity crisis for the Republican party 21:45 This has the potential to be incredibly good for the middle east 22:15 10/7 was the biggest strategic mistake Iran has ever made 23:30 Gulf states can’t keep their neutrality, MBS talked Trump into attacking 24:30 Iran’s proxies were more effective than their actual military 25:00 Israel is clearly the military power of the middle east 25:45 Oil prices likely to soar and will impact politics domestically 27:15 Trump probably cuts the deal if Iran completely capitulated 28:00 Iran was more forthcoming in negotiations than Russia is 29:15 Trump only chooses fights he knows he can dominate 30:00 Congress has itself to blame by not even bothering to vote 31:00 Will the American people decide that congress is optional 31:45 Contradiction between campaign rhetoric & governance should matter 32:45 If unilateral executive action becomes normal, we change our republic 34:15 Success overseas rarely translates to votes at the ballot box 35:30 Iraq & Afghanistan are still a mess twenty years after intervening 36:15 Talarico seems to have

Rep. Sean Casten — the Illinois Democrat, clean energy entrepreneur, and scientist-turned-congressman who was inspired to run for office by Trump's first election — joins the Chuck ToddCast for a candid and wide-ranging conversation about what's broken in Congress and how to fix it. Casten pulls back the curtain on congressional dysfunction, describing a body increasingly populated by pundits and influencers rather than legislators, where televised hearings reward political theater over policymaking and cabinet secretaries like Scott Bessent feel they don't have to answer to Congress at all. He walks through his grilling of Bessent on the legality of the Venezuelan oil seizure — a moment where the Treasury Secretary had no good answer. Casten warns that congressional weakness is the single biggest issue plaguing the federal government. They debate Chuck’s long-standing position of uncapping the House of Representatives to bring the ratio down to 400-500,000 constituents per member, Casten pitches creating a block of 12 nationally elected senators to serve the national interest, and — most provocatively — stripping the Supreme Court of its self-granted power to set its own docket, a power Congress gave and can take away. He notes that Iceland copied America's government structure and eventually scrapped its senate. He closes by identifying income inequality, AI, and the changing job market as the seminal issues of 2028, warning that if Trump's own supporters prioritize economic concerns, the pitchforks will be coming out. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Rep. Sean Casten joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:45 Leadership has hijacked congress 02:45 Congress increasingly has more pundits/influencers than legislators 03:30 Hearings being televised leads to more political theater 04:00 In the minority, all you can do is move public opinion 05:00 Grilling Scott Bessent on legality of Venezuelan oil seizure 06:15 Bessent is the adult behind the scenes, but not publicly 08:00 There was no way for Bessent to answer the question well 08:30 Administration has no authority to distribute Venezuelan oil 09:45 Rubio and Bessent didn’t coordinate their stories 11:00 Cabinet secretaries feel they don’t have to answer to congress 11:45 Trump was constrained in his first term, not in this term 13:00 Rubio will get blamed if foreign adventurism goes poorly 14:15 Loyalty is a one-way street with Trump 15:00 Congressional dysfunction is biggest issue with federal government 15:45 Why give up your job as CEO to run for congress? 16:45 Wanted to combat climate change as a member of congress 18:15 Trump’s election inspired many people to get off the sidelines 19:00 Congress rarely takes back its power, other branches grab more 20:15 American democracy only gets updated after major upheaval 22:45 What structural reforms to democracy would you like to work on? 24:00 Senate, electoral college and Supreme Court are holding us back 24:45 Create a block of 12 nationally elected senators to serve national interest 25:30 Congress can strip appellate jurisdiction from the Supreme Court 26:30 Congress gave SCOTUS power to set their own docket, can take it away 28:15 Without lifetime appointments, Trump probably fires Gorsuch & Barrett 29:15 SCOTUS justices are mostly partisan warriors 30:30 Iceland copied U.S. government structure, eventually scrapped senate 32:30 Size of the House of Representatives needs to be uncapped 35:30 400-500k constituents per congress member seems about right 37:15 What’s the appetite in congress for real structural reform? 38:45 New construction for a bigger congress is a solvable challenge 40:30 Members in less than safe seats incentivized to be in-district over D.C. 43:30 There’s value in being in-district and having the pulse of the community 44:15 Democratic party is viewed as poorly as Trump in polls 46:30 Do Democrats have a leadership problem or party brand problem? 47:15 Democratic voters punishing the party for not putting Trump away? 48:30 Biden had major legislative wins because he under

Chuck Todd delivers a searing assessment of a war he calls one of choice, not necessity. He argues that "ends justify the means" sums up everything about Trump's presidency, noting that the rationale for the war has shifted multiple times, there was no smoking gun incident to prompt the strikes, the administration's credibility with the public is extremely low, and Trump's own surrogates spent years warning that Democrats would start a war with Iran. He questions whether the U.S. got boxed in by Netanyahu and whether Trump is simply looking for his own Delcy Rodriguez-style compliant leader in Tehran, pointing out the absurdity of calling on Iran's military to surrender without clarifying to whom. He warns that regime change is a tall order that gives America enormous responsibility it isn't prepared for, that oil prices are set to soar with massive domestic political consequences, and that the prior cuts to Voice of America were a shortsighted mistake now that winning hearts and minds actually matters. He warns that if unilateral executive war-making becomes normalized, America will have fundamentally changed its republic. He closes by pivoting to the Texas primary, where Talarico appears to have momentum heading into election day, Trump has refused to endorse in the GOP race leaving Cornyn exposed, and total primary turnout will serve as a critical bellwether for November's midterms. Then, Rep. Sean Casten — the Illinois Democrat, clean energy entrepreneur, and scientist-turned-congressman who was inspired to run for office by Trump's first election — joins the Chuck ToddCast for a candid and wide-ranging conversation about what's broken in Congress and how to fix it. Casten pulls back the curtain on congressional dysfunction, describing a body increasingly populated by pundits and influencers rather than legislators, where televised hearings reward political theater over policymaking and cabinet secretaries like Scott Bessent feel they don't have to answer to Congress at all. He walks through his grilling of Bessent on the legality of the Venezuelan oil seizure — a moment where the Treasury Secretary had no good answer. Casten warns that congressional weakness is the single biggest issue plaguing the federal government. They debate Chuck’s long-standing position of uncapping the House of Representatives to bring the ratio down to 400-500,000 constituents per member, Casten pitches creating a block of 12 nationally elected senators to serve the national interest, and — most provocatively — stripping the Supreme Court of its self-granted power to set its own docket, a power Congress gave and can take away. He notes that Iceland copied America's government structure and eventually scrapped its senate. He closes by identifying income inequality, AI, and the changing job market as the seminal issues of 2028, warning that if Trump's own supporters prioritize economic concerns, the pitchforks will be coming out. Finally, ahead of the Texas primaries on Tuesday, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Texas’s declaration of independence from Mexico & the unique forces that shaped the state’s “Lone Star” mentality. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:00 “Ends justify the means” sums up everything about Trump’s presidency 06:45 The administration’s credibility with the public is extremely low 07:30 Military sources are less likely to lie to reporters than political ones 08:30 The rationale for the war has changed multiple times 09:15 There was no smoking gun incident to prompt the war 10:30 Regime change is a tall order & gives us more responsibility 12:00 Trump has called for the Iranian military to surrender… but to whom? 12:45 Cuts to Voice of America was a shortsighted mistake 13:30 After massacre of protesters, there was a humanitarian case for strikes 15:00 Is Trump looking for his own Delcy Rodriguez in Iran? 15:30 Did the U.S. g

Today's episode is as urgent as it gets — Chuck Todd breaks down the seismic events of February 28, 2026, as the United States and Israel launched "Operation Epic Fury," a massive joint military strike against Iran targeting nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure, and senior regime leadership, including attempts on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei himself. Trump announced "major combat operations" in a prerecorded video, urging Iranians to "take over your government" — a sweeping regime-change ambition that stands in stunning contrast to his campaign promises to end foreign entanglements and never play the role of the world's police. Iran has already retaliated, firing missiles at U.S. military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, with Houthi rebels in Yemen threatening to resume Red Sea shipping strikes and Hezbollah calling for regional unity against the U.S. and Israel. While a free Iran could indeed be transformational, the hard, inconvenient questions are piling up fast: What happens when the next terror attack comes in response? Who pays to rebuild Iran after we've bombed it — the same taxpayers already on the hook for Gaza and Venezuela? How does Congress respond to a president who, legal scholars argue, went to war without authorization, relying on a constitutionally dubious Article II justification even thinner than the case for Iraq? The strikes came hours after Oman's foreign minister reported "significant progress" in nuclear negotiations, making this a war of choice that blindsided America's own diplomatic efforts. Today's bombs may be the easy part — the next six months, as the law of unintended consequences takes hold across a destabilized Middle East, will be the real reckoning for a country that was told, repeatedly, it was done doing exactly this.   Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction - Trump strikes Iran with help from Israel 00:30 Trump campaigned against being the world’s police & war with Iran 01:45 A free Iran would be great and transformational for the world 03:30 There will a terror attack somewhere in response 04:45 Good luck explaining to taxpayers that we’re rebuilding Iran 05:15 Rebuilding Gaza, Venezuela and now Iran are our responsibility? 06:30 How will congress respond? 07:30 Trump went to war with less evidence than Bush in Iraq 09:00 The law of unintended consequences is in full effect 10:30 The Iranian regime is horrible, but Trump owes Americans an explanation 12:30 Trump ignored the constitution here, but congress has been impotent 14:00 Today is the easy part, the hard part is the next 6 months 16:15 What we’re doing is exactly what Trump said he’d never do 18:15 The country is tired of intervention around the worldSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd unpacks the fallout from Trump's State of the Union address and previews what's shaping up to be a pivotal primary season. He argues that the speech wasn't designed to be coherent — it was engineered for social media moments and base solidification, with Trump drafting off the popularity of others like the Olympic hockey team rather than making a case to swing voters, and echoing Biden's mistake of trying to sell a country that doesn't feel it on the economy. He breaks down the JD Vance "fraud czar" announcement and the immediate move to suspend Medicaid funding to Minnesota as classic base-juicing, then pivots to a sharp analysis of the Iran standoff: Trump's base won't tolerate a prolonged war but might accept limited strikes, Iran knows this and could rope-a-dope the administration, and you can't air strike your way to regime change. He argues that Cuba on the brink of societal collapse with Cuban Americans eager to help rebuild — represents a far easier foreign policy win that Trump is inexplicably ignoring. He then turns to the Texas primaries, where Cornyn has trailed Paxton in every poll and likely can't win without a Trump endorsement, while the Crockett-Talarico Democratic race is showing Clinton-Sanders demographic splits with Crockett leading among groups more likely to actually vote. He notes that many of Chuck Schumer's recruited candidates nationally are already losing, and that the establishment is deeply unpopular this cycle — with a new poll showing insurgent Graham Platner crushing Janet Mills by 40 points as further proof that 2026 is shaping up as an anti-establishment wave. Katherine Mangu-Ward — editor-in-chief of Reason magazine and author of the viral New York Times op-ed "Libertarians: We Told You So" — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sharp, wide-ranging conversation about what the libertarian moment looks like when executive power has run amok. She opens with a disarming observation: Americans tend to discover their inner libertarian whenever they dislike the president — and notes that a version of her op-ed could have been written under Biden too. But the Trump era, she argues, has vindicated libertarian warnings in ways that should alarm everyone: warrantless ICE entries that have silenced the very conservatives who once championed the Fourth Amendment, tech CEO congressional hearings that were really about locking in corporate access to state power, and a cronyism so brazen it has paradoxically made citizens hate corporations more than the government enabling them.  The conversation takes a fascinating turn into policy territory rarely explored on political podcasts. Mangu-Ward engages seriously with the question of whether there's a libertarian case for nationalized healthcare. They also tackle Trump turning Democrats into free-trade activists, the risks of economic nationalism, why demands for safety net cuts fall far short of solving the budget problem, and the fine line between prediction markets and sportsbooks. Looking ahead to 2026, Mangu-Ward points to Arizona — a state that has always produced what she calls "mutant strains" of libertarianism — as the place to watch for whether libertarian-leaning candidates can finally break through at the ballot box. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and explains his beef with the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:00 Initial fallout from Trump’s State of the Union speech 05:45 Trump’s focus is to solidify his base, not reach swing voters 07:00 Speech wasn’t coherent, it was meant for social media moments 07:45 Trump tried to draft on the popularity of others during speech 08:30 Like Biden, Trump tried to sell the country that the economy is working 10:30 Trump announced JD Vance as “fraud czar” 11:15 Vance announces they’ll suspend Medicaid funding to Minnesota 12:15 Trump isn’t politically nimble, but knows how to juice the base 13:15 Trump’s

Katherine Mangu-Ward — editor-in-chief of Reason magazine and author of the viral New York Times op-ed "Libertarians: We Told You So" — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sharp, wide-ranging conversation about what the libertarian moment looks like when executive power has run amok. She opens with a disarming observation: Americans tend to discover their inner libertarian whenever they dislike the president — and notes that a version of her op-ed could have been written under Biden too. But the Trump era, she argues, has vindicated libertarian warnings in ways that should alarm everyone: warrantless ICE entries that have silenced the very conservatives who once championed the Fourth Amendment, tech CEO congressional hearings that were really about locking in corporate access to state power, and a cronyism so brazen it has paradoxically made citizens hate corporations more than the government enabling them.  The conversation takes a fascinating turn into policy territory rarely explored on political podcasts. Mangu-Ward engages seriously with the question of whether there's a libertarian case for nationalized healthcare. They also tackle Trump turning Democrats into free-trade activists, the risks of economic nationalism, why demands for safety net cuts fall far short of solving the budget problem, and the fine line between prediction markets and sportsbooks. Looking ahead to 2026, Mangu-Ward points to Arizona — a state that has always produced what she calls "mutant strains" of libertarianism — as the place to watch for whether libertarian-leaning candidates can finally break through at the ballot box. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Katherine Mangu-Ward joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:00 We’re all more libertarian when we don’t like the president 01:45 Motivation for writing NYT op-ed “Libertarians: We Told You So” 03:30 Libertarian has been typically conservative in western U.S. 04:30 Kentucky has been sending most libertarians to congress 05:30 Different version of Op-ed could have been written under Biden 07:15 American elections recently haven’t given anyone a mandate 08:30 Supreme Court begged congress to do their job in tariff decision 10:00 Where are the conservatives now that warrantless entries are happening? 11:30 Trump has bullied out libertarians and unsupportive Republicans 13:45 Biggest worries about big tech are worries about the state 15:15 Don’t want big tech to enable state actions against individual rights 17:15 We might need a cultural sea change for congress to rein in big tech 18:45 Trump’s cronyism has made citizens hate only corporations, not government 19:30 Less government reduces opportunity for cronyism 21:30 Tech CEO hearings were CEOs trying to lock in their place 22:30 Market discipline does seem to be working in the AI space 24:00 Where is some government regulation acceptable for libertarians? 26:00 Trump has turned Democrats into free-trade activists 28:30 The risks of economic nationalism 30:00 Where do libertarians draw the line on the social safety net? 30:45 Demands for safety net cuts fall very short of solving budget problem 32:30 Student loan debt forgiveness would benefit higher earners 34:00 More people want government to have a larger role 36:15 Is there a libertarian argument for nationalized healthcare? 38:15 Regulation in healthcare & childcare have exploded costs 40:30 Market forces haven’t worked in healthcare pricing 42:00 We’re being lied to about pricing practices in healthcare 43:15 Should insurance be able to price based on preexisting conditions? 45:00 Catastrophic coverage is basically illegal now 46:15 We should just pay out of pocket for small, regular procedures 47:45 Charity or government subsidies should assist preexisting conditions 50:30 How would a libertarian clean up the prediction markets? 53:00 Not a major difference between prediction markets & sportsbooks 55:30 Will libertarians have a moment at the ballot box in 2026? 56:15 Arizona has always produced mutant strains of libertaria

Chuck Todd unpacks the fallout from Trump's State of the Union address and previews what's shaping up to be a pivotal primary season. He argues that the speech wasn't designed to be coherent — it was engineered for social media moments and base solidification, with Trump drafting off the popularity of others like the Olympic hockey team rather than making a case to swing voters, and echoing Biden's mistake of trying to sell a country that doesn't feel it on the economy. He breaks down the JD Vance "fraud czar" announcement and the immediate move to suspend Medicaid funding to Minnesota as classic base-juicing, then pivots to a sharp analysis of the Iran standoff: Trump's base won't tolerate a prolonged war but might accept limited strikes, Iran knows this and could rope-a-dope the administration, and you can't air strike your way to regime change. He argues that Cuba on the brink of societal collapse with Cuban Americans eager to help rebuild — represents a far easier foreign policy win that Trump is inexplicably ignoring. He then turns to the Texas primaries, where Cornyn has trailed Paxton in every poll and likely can't win without a Trump endorsement, while the Crockett-Talarico Democratic race is showing Clinton-Sanders demographic splits with Crockett leading among groups more likely to actually vote. He notes that many of Chuck Schumer's recruited candidates nationally are already losing, and that the establishment is deeply unpopular this cycle — with a new poll showing insurgent Graham Platner crushing Janet Mills by 40 points as further proof that 2026 is shaping up as an anti-establishment wave. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and explains his beef with the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:45 Initial fallout from Trump’s State of the Union speech 03:30 Trump’s focus is to solidify his base, not reach swing voters 04:45 Speech wasn’t coherent, it was meant for social media moments 05:30 Trump tried to draft on the popularity of others during speech 06:15 Like Biden, Trump tried to sell the country that the economy is working 08:15 Trump announced JD Vance as “fraud czar” 09:00 Vance announces they’ll suspend Medicaid funding to Minnesota 10:00 Trump isn’t politically nimble, but knows how to juice the base 11:00 Trump’s speech only played one note to his base 13:15 It’s tough to understand what Trump is up to with Iran 14:00 Trump’s base won’t accept a prolonged war with Iran, just limited strikes 14:45 Iran knows Trump’s base isn’t on board, could rope-a-dope him 16:30 You can’t air strike your way to regime change… so what’s the plan? 17:45 25% chance of regime change, 25% chance it strengthens regime 19:00 Trump’s impatience is one of his worst political instincts 20:00 Cuba is on the brink of societal/regime collapse 20:45 Cuban Americans would jump at opportunity to rebuild Cuba 22:00 Cuba is a much easier potential foreign policy victory for Trump 23:15 War with Iran could be a massive resource drain on the U.S. 23:45 Primary season about to kick off, starting with Texas 24:15 What happens in Dem primary, will affect GOP runoff 25:00 Cornyn has trailed Paxton in every poll 26:15 Cornyn can’t win without Trump’s endorsement 28:00 Divide between Talarico and Crockett has been fascinating 28:30 Bernie Sanders & AOC have stayed out of Texas primary 29:45 If 3rd candidate gets over 3 points, real chance of Dem runoff 30:45 Polling for Talarico/Crockett shows similar splits to Clinton/Sanders 31:30 Crockett ahead with demographic groups more likely to vote 32:45 Talarico is trying to tout his electability in the general 33:45 It’s hard to know whether Talarico or Crockett is more electable 36:45 If Talarico wins, it might force Trump off the fence & to back Cornyn 38:15 It will be hard for Dems to win in Texas, but it will be competitive 39:00 Many people are betting T

Paul Auslander, President of SeaBridge Private Wealth, a division of SeaBridge Investment Advisors LLC joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about the intersection of money, markets, and the current political moment. Auslander walks through how the political climate now factors directly into financial planning projections, noting that European indices doubled the S&P's performance last year as capital flows shift overseas, and that a growing number of wealthy clients are hedging by moving money out of the United States. He offers candid takes on the issues keeping investors up at night: the inevitability of Social Security cuts (though he argues simply pushing retirement age from 67 to 69 would stabilize the fund), the likely future of Social Security privatization, crypto's evolution from a technological revolution into a special interest that bought its own policy outcomes, and whether there's money to be made off bad Trump policies that are likely to be reversed. Auslander also explains why the bond market is a better barometer of economic health than the stock market, why private equity is sitting on mountains of sidelined capital, and why he remains cautiously bullish on 2026 — largely because AI is only in the "second inning" and massive disruption is still ahead. The conversation also ventures into territory financial planners don't usually discuss publicly. Auslander addresses whether the wealthy are worried the "pitchforks are coming for them," pointing to economic anxiety driving a spike in gun sales and a pop culture landscape that increasingly portrays corporations and the ultra-rich as villains. He breaks down the rise of family offices — private wealth management firms for the ultra-wealthy that take a long-term investment view — and explains why companies increasingly choose to stay private thanks to nearly unlimited private capital, rather than face the scrutiny of public markets. They also dig into the generational divide between investing and gambling, the casino-like nature of prediction markets, and the burden that post-Lehman Brothers insurance and regulatory requirements have placed on small businesses and regional banks that had nothing to do with the 2008 financial crisis. Auslander closes with a pointed message: that Fed independence and the rule of law are paramount to economic stability, and that centrism — not ideological extremism — remains the best way to run the country. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Paul Auslander joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:30 Paul’s origin story 02:45 Financial planning was mostly done by insurance companies in 70’s 03:30 Northerners move to FL for taxes & weather, but FL is pushing it socially 06:00 Fiduciary responsibility is the line of demarcation in financial planning 07:00 Factoring the political climate into financial planning projections 08:30 European index doubled the performance of the S&P last year 09:30 Tax policy is generally the biggest concern for investors 12:00 A cut to social security payments is bound to happen 13:00 If you push retirement from 67 to 69 the SS fund becomes healthy 15:15 Social security privatization likely to happen in the future 17:15 Money to be made off bad Trump policies that are likely to go away? 18:15 Crypto became a special interest & bought support for pro crypto policy 20:00 Crypto is a revolution that predates Trump & will outlast him 21:30 Lesson to be learned from rise then collapse in price of silver? 22:30 Central banks are buying silver, gold and assets 24:00 How many people are hedging by moving money out of the U.S.? 24:45 Europe is spending big money on arms & infrastructure 26:00 Definition of a “Family Office” 28:30 Family office investments are increasingly popular & take the long view 30:00 Are the investors/wealthy worried the pitchforks are coming for them? 31:30 Economic anxiety driving a spike in gun sales 33:00 Pop culture portrays corporations & wealthy as the villains 34:30 Private equity has a lot of money on the si

In this episode recorded immediately after Trump's record-breaking 108-minute State of the Union address, Chuck Todd argues that while Trump's base will love the "own the libs" moments — from trolling Democrats in the chamber to the raucous "USA" chants from Republicans — the speech was fundamentally a missed opportunity that did nothing to help the GOP heading into the midterms. He contends that Trump chose to be a party leader rather than a president, turning the address into something resembling an award show by packing it with medal presentations, the Olympic men's hockey team, honorees who deserved more dedicated recognition rather than being used as applause props in an already bloated speech. He argues that Trump's tone on the economy couldn't have been worse for Republicans: with his approval at 60% disapproval and the Supreme Court having just struck down his tariffs days earlier, Trump barely addressed voters' core concerns about costs and affordability, instead declaring a "turnaround for the ages" that doesn't match most Americans' lived experience. He notes Trump’s highlighting of Iran's ballistic missiles sounded like a pretext for war that won't play well with parts of his own base. He praises Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger's Democratic response as simple and effective — particularly her pointed questions about whether the president is actually working to make life more affordable — and argues she clearly won over independents. He closes with a bigger-picture observation: that there's a 60% majority coalition available on populist economic issues like protecting the safety net from cuts to fund tax breaks for the wealthy, but that Democrats still have a damaged brand despite Trump's terrible numbers, and that voters who thought they were getting first-term Trump are reckoning with something very different. Then, Paul Auslander, President of SeaBridge Private Wealth, a division of SeaBridge Investment Advisors LLC joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about the intersection of money, markets, and the current political moment. Auslander walks through how the political climate now factors directly into financial planning projections, noting that European indices doubled the S&P's performance last year as capital flows shift overseas, and that a growing number of wealthy clients are hedging by moving money out of the United States. He offers candid takes on the issues keeping investors up at night: the inevitability of Social Security cuts (though he argues simply pushing retirement age from 67 to 69 would stabilize the fund), the likely future of Social Security privatization, crypto's evolution from a technological revolution into a special interest that bought its own policy outcomes, and whether there's money to be made off bad Trump policies that are likely to be reversed. Auslander also explains why the bond market is a better barometer of economic health than the stock market, why private equity is sitting on mountains of sidelined capital, and why he remains cautiously bullish on 2026 — largely because AI is only in the "second inning" and massive disruption is still ahead. The conversation also ventures into territory financial planners don't usually discuss publicly. Auslander addresses whether the wealthy are worried the "pitchforks are coming for them," pointing to economic anxiety driving a spike in gun sales and a pop culture landscape that increasingly portrays corporations and the ultra-rich as villains. He breaks down the rise of family offices — private wealth management firms for the ultra-wealthy that take a long-term investment view — and explains why companies increasingly choose to stay private thanks to nearly unlimited private capital, rather than face the scrutiny of public markets. They also dig into the generational divide between investing and gambling, the casino-like nature of prediction markets, and the burden that post-Lehman Brothers insurance and regulatory requirements have placed on small businesses and regional banks that had nothing to do with the 2008 financial crisis. Auslander closes with a pointed message: that Fed independence and the rule of law are paramount to economic stability, and that centrism — not ideological extremism — remains the best way to run the country. Finally, Chuck presents his updated ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip in the midterms and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "

In this episode recorded immediately after Trump's record-breaking 108-minute State of the Union address, Chuck Todd argues that while Trump's base will love the "own the libs" moments — from trolling Democrats in the chamber to the raucous "USA" chants from Republicans — the speech was fundamentally a missed opportunity that did nothing to help the GOP heading into the midterms. He contends that Trump chose to be a party leader rather than a president, turning the address into something resembling an award show by packing it with medal presentations, the Olympic men's hockey team, honorees who deserved more dedicated recognition rather than being used as applause props in an already bloated speech. He argues that Trump's tone on the economy couldn't have been worse for Republicans: with his approval at 60% disapproval and the Supreme Court having just struck down his tariffs days earlier, Trump barely addressed voters' core concerns about costs and affordability, instead declaring a "turnaround for the ages" that doesn't match most Americans' lived experience. He notes Trump’s highlighting of Iran's ballistic missiles sounded like a pretext for war that won't play well with parts of his own base. He praises Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger's Democratic response as simple and effective — particularly her pointed questions about whether the president is actually working to make life more affordable — and argues she clearly won over independents. He closes with a bigger-picture observation: that there's a 60% majority coalition available on populist economic issues like protecting the safety net from cuts to fund tax breaks for the wealthy, but that Democrats still have a damaged brand despite Trump's terrible numbers, and that voters who thought they were getting first-term Trump are reckoning with something very different. Finally, Chuck presents his updated ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip in the midterms and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 2:15 Trump’s base will love “own the libs” moments from SOTU 3:30 Most of Trump’s base was celebrating himself & animating his base 4:15 Trump’s tone on the economy couldn’t have been worse for GOP 5:30 Trump hid behind the glory of others, turned speech into award show 6:45 Awards are an incredible honor, deserved more time & recognition 8:30 Hopefully the recipients get dedicated events to honor them 9:00 Overloading the speech with awards felt a bit gimmicky 10:00 Trump mostly bit his tongue when addressing SCOTUS 10:30 Trump chose to be a party leader rather than president, trolled Dems 11:15 Spanberger’s response to SOTU was simple & effective 13:00 Spanberger definitely did better with independents than Trump 13:45 Trump’s proposal to make AI companies provide their power is a winner 14:15 Trump highlighting Iran’s ballistic missiles sounds like a pretext for war 15:30 Attacking Iran won’t play well with parts of Trump’s base 16:30 Trump didn’t talk about Venezuelan democracy, just oil 17:15 Trump’s still working with the Maduro regime 18:45 Are we trying to prevent Iranian nukes, or attempting regime change? 19:30 Trump claiming credit for getting Mexican cartel leader is a big faux pax 20:45 Allies feel like Trump will sell them out just so he can take credit 21:30 Trump didn’t address voters concerns on costs & the economy 22:45 Trump is better on the attack than defending his record 23:30 The speech didn’t give Republicans a boost for the midterms 24:30 Most Americans don’t support cutting safety net for tax cuts 26:30 There’s a 60% majority to be had on economic issues, not cultural ones 28:15 Voters keep picking the out party 29:30 There’s a majority coalition to be won with populist economic policy 31:30 This could be a moment for candidates to shed the party label 32:00 Democrats will have a strong midte

Chuck Todd argues that the United States is in an especially precarious moment of Trump's presidency — but that the guardrails of American democracy are proving they still exist. Todd breaks down the ruling's implications, noting that without tariff revenue the already ballooning U.S. budget deficit will accelerate, and that the coming chaos over refunds for billions in illegally collected duties will be a mess for businesses, consumers, and the trade deals that were negotiated under a now-invalidated framework. He highlights the emerging three distinct wings of the Supreme Court — with Gorsuch writing a pointed concurrence calling out his colleagues, Kavanaugh dissenting on foreign policy grounds, and the liberal justices joining Roberts on textual grounds — and argues the ruling reflects the public's own disapproval of Trump, which a new poll now places at 60% disapproval. He reserves his sharpest commentary for Trump's reaction: rather than pivot, the president attacked his own Supreme Court appointees for disloyalty and accused the Court of "foreign influence," a response Chuck calls a gift to Democrats and a sign that Trump is terrified dissent will become contagious among Republicans. Chuck also cautions that Democrats shouldn't celebrate too much — their brand remains damaged despite Trump's cratering numbers — and offers a counterintuitive observation: that Trump's greatest weakness isn't his authoritarian instincts but his laziness, arguing that his reliance on emergency powers is a shortcut to avoid the hard work of legislating. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the Reichstag fire & how Hitler was able to turn Germany’s democracy into a dictatorship through the use of emergency powers he was granted. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:45 We are in an especially precarious moment of Trump’s presidency 7:15 Supreme Court tariff ruling shows the guardrails still exist 8:00 Without tariffs, U.S. budget deficit will grow even faster 9:45 Trump plans on going down with the ship, may sink GOP 11:45 Courts ruling wasn’t surprising, tariff authority belongs to congress 13:15 Gorsuch called out his colleagues in his opinion 14:45 Kavanaugh’s dissent argued tariffs as a foreign policy issue 16:45 There are three distinct wings in this Supreme Court 18:30 Ruling reflects the public's disapproval of Trump 20:00 We saw tariff price spikes in Q4, ruling would help GOP 20:45 Trump’s response was to attack his own appointees for disloyalty 22:30 Trump lashed out, afraid dissent will become contagious 23:30 Trump accused SCOTUS of “foreign influence” 26:00 Trump is too lazy to become one of history’s worst autocrats 27:45 Trump’s laziness is his greatest weakness 29:15 Emergency powers are a shortcut to avoid legislating 30:45 Chaos is coming, people will want refunds for illegal tariffs 32:30 Consumption taxes put the burden on lower income people 34:00 Fallout from the ruling will be a mess for businesses 34:45 What will happen to trade deals that were cut based on illegal tariffs? 35:15 Trump has alienated every major ally the U.S. has 36:15 Trump is vulnerable to Republicans walking away from him 38:30 Trump reaction to tariffs was a gift to the Democrats 40:15 New poll shows Trump’s disapproval at 60% 41:45 Democrats brand still bad despite Trump’s terrible approval 52:30 ToddCast Time Machine - February 27th, 1933 53:00 Reichstag fire gave Hitler emergency powers 53:45 Germany’s economy had been devastated 55:00 In three years, Germany cycled through three unstable governments 56:00 German elites thought they could use Hitler’s popularity & manage him 57:00 Whether Nazi’s helped, or just exploited the fire is still debated 58:15 Reichstag Fire decree suspended civil liberties 59:30 Enabling Act allowed Hitler to legislate without parliamentary approval 1:00:15 The German dictator

Emmy Award-winning director and Academy Award nominee Geeta Gandbhir joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss her critically acclaimed Netflix documentary The Perfect Neighbor, which uses years of police bodycam footage to reconstruct the events leading to the 2023 fatal shooting of Ajike Owens by her neighbor Susan Lorincz in Ocala, Florida. Gandbhir reveals that Owens was a personal friend of her family — her sister-in-law's best friend — and that the film was never initially planned as a documentary; she and her partner went to Florida to support the family and keep the story in the news, fearing Lorincz would walk free under Florida's stand your ground laws. The Sundance Directing Award winner explains how the production team obtained the bodycam footage through the family's attorneys, Benjamin Crump and Anthony Thomas, and describes the rare experience of having not just the aftermath but years of "before" footage — creating a slow-building tension she compares to Blair Witch and Paranormal Activity. Gandbhir emphasizes that the film doesn't preach; it simply presents the chronology and lets the audience decide. The conversation goes deeper into the systemic failures the footage revealed: Lorincz was the only person in the neighborhood who repeatedly called police, yet officers saw her as a nuisance rather than a threat — her whiteness, Gandbhir argues, shielding her from scrutiny. Police never checked whether Lorincz owned a gun, and in other states, her pattern of behavior would have resulted in harassment charges long before the shooting. Gandbhir explains why the case resulted in a manslaughter conviction rather than a more serious charge, advocates for the eradication of stand your ground laws that exist in 38 states, and makes a compelling case that some police funding would be better directed toward social workers and mental health professionals. She also reflects on what the film has meant to Owens' four children and their family, the power of bodycam footage as both a tool for truth and a potential instrument of surveillance, and what a potential Academy Award would mean — not for herself, but as a platform to drive real change. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Geeta Gandbhir joins the Chuck ToddCast 00:45 “The Perfect Neighbor” isn’t a gun story, it’s a societal story 01:30 How important is a potential Academy Award for you? 02:15 Awards give you a platform to talk about issues & bring change 03:00 Film produced independently, then Netflix gave it a huge platform 04:00 How close did you follow this story in real time? 04:30 Ajike Owens was a personal friend of Geeta 05:45 There’s so much gun violence, individual stories don’t break through 06:45 The production team received body cam footage from family lawyers 08:00 We usually see the aftermath of shootings, rarely the before footage 09:45 Needed to understand chronology of body cam footage 11:00 Film’s tension building compared to Blair Witch & Paranormal Activity 11:45 Racial justice/tension movies can make for a difficult watch 12:45 Movie doesn’t preach, just shows the event & let’s audience decide 14:30 Footage portrayed a working class, striving community 16:00 Everyone knows the Susan Lorincz, “get off my lawn” type character 16:45 No understanding of why Susan Lorincz was so broken as a person 19:30 Lorincz was the only woman in the neighborhood that complained to police 20:15 This didn’t feel like manslaughter, it felt pre-meditated 21:00 Prosecutors felt a manslaughter charge would be easier to convict 21:30 Hope DeSantis understands the damage stand your ground laws cause 22:45 If there was no body camera footage, Susan could have walked 24:00 Police bodycams should be on at all times to prevent distortion of truth 24:45 Bodycam footage is a double edged sword, can be used for surveillance 25:30 Original footage included protests, funerals & B-roll of the neighborhood 27:15 Neighbors had a very visceral reaction to the film, but did find it therapeutic

Chuck Todd argues that the United States is in an especially precarious moment of Trump's presidency — but that the guardrails of American democracy are proving they still exist. Todd breaks down the ruling's implications, noting that without tariff revenue the already ballooning U.S. budget deficit will accelerate, and that the coming chaos over refunds for billions in illegally collected duties will be a mess for businesses, consumers, and the trade deals that were negotiated under a now-invalidated framework. He highlights the emerging three distinct wings of the Supreme Court — with Gorsuch writing a pointed concurrence calling out his colleagues, Kavanaugh dissenting on foreign policy grounds, and the liberal justices joining Roberts on textual grounds — and argues the ruling reflects the public's own disapproval of Trump, which a new poll now places at 60% disapproval. He reserves his sharpest commentary for Trump's reaction: rather than pivot, the president attacked his own Supreme Court appointees for disloyalty and accused the Court of "foreign influence," a response Chuck calls a gift to Democrats and a sign that Trump is terrified dissent will become contagious among Republicans. Chuck also cautions that Democrats shouldn't celebrate too much — their brand remains damaged despite Trump's cratering numbers — and offers a counterintuitive observation: that Trump's greatest weakness isn't his authoritarian instincts but his laziness, arguing that his reliance on emergency powers is a shortcut to avoid the hard work of legislating. Then, Emmy Award-winning director and Academy Award nominee Geeta Gandbhir joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss her critically acclaimed Netflix documentary The Perfect Neighbor, which uses years of police bodycam footage to reconstruct the events leading to the 2023 fatal shooting of Ajike Owens by her neighbor Susan Lorincz in Ocala, Florida. Gandbhir reveals that Owens was a personal friend of her family — her sister-in-law's best friend — and that the film was never initially planned as a documentary; she and her partner went to Florida to support the family and keep the story in the news, fearing Lorincz would walk free under Florida's stand your ground laws. The Sundance Directing Award winner explains how the production team obtained the bodycam footage through the family's attorneys, Benjamin Crump and Anthony Thomas, and describes the rare experience of having not just the aftermath but years of "before" footage — creating a slow-building tension she compares to Blair Witch and Paranormal Activity. Gandbhir emphasizes that the film doesn't preach; it simply presents the chronology and lets the audience decide. The conversation goes deeper into the systemic failures the footage revealed: Lorincz was the only person in the neighborhood who repeatedly called police, yet officers saw her as a nuisance rather than a threat — her whiteness, Gandbhir argues, shielding her from scrutiny. Police never checked whether Lorincz owned a gun, and in other states, her pattern of behavior would have resulted in harassment charges long before the shooting. Gandbhir explains why the case resulted in a manslaughter conviction rather than a more serious charge, advocates for the eradication of stand your ground laws that exist in 38 states, and makes a compelling case that some police funding would be better directed toward social workers and mental health professionals. She also reflects on what the film has meant to Owens' four children and their family, the power of bodycam footage as both a tool for truth and a potential instrument of surveillance, and what a potential Academy Award would mean — not for herself, but as a platform to drive real change. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the Reichstag fire & how Hitler was able to turn Germany’s democracy into a dictatorship through the use of emergency powers he was granted. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on

In this breaking-news episode recorded immediately after the Supreme Court's landmark 6-3 ruling striking down Trump's sweeping tariffs under IEEPA, Chuck Todd breaks down what he calls one of the most consequential decisions of the Trump era — and argues the Court did elected Republicans an enormous favor. Chief Justice Roberts, joined by Gorsuch, Barrett, and the three liberal justices, ruled that the 1977 emergency powers law "does not authorize the President to impose tariffs," leaving only Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh in dissent — a split Chuck argues should have been 9-0 given that the Constitution plainly gives Congress the power of the purse. He contends that the 6-3 margin is critical because it prevents Trump from framing the decision as a partisan attack, and gives congressional Republicans cover to move on from a policy that has devastated America's farm economy, spooked markets with uncertainty, and could now require the Treasury to refund an estimated $175 billion to importers. With Trump calling the ruling "a disgrace" and his State of the Union address just days away, Chuck notes the president has a lot of explaining to do — particularly since he could have sought tariff authority from Congress in the spring of 2025 when he had the political capital, but instead chose to go it alone through executive action. Trump, Chuck concludes, is a huge loser here, and the uncertainty is far from over. Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s intro - Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs 00:45 SCOTUS did elected Republicans a favor 02:00 Trump doesn’t have the votes in congress to enact tariffs 03:00 There’s a ton of uncertainty coming from this ruling 04:45 Trump has a lot of explain to do at State of the Union 06:00 Alito & Thomas always side with Trump, Kavanaugh mostly 06:45 Congress has power of purse, ruling should have been 9-0 09:00 Supreme Court has given Republicans cover 10:15 Tariffs have been devastating to America’s farm economy 11:45 Markets face a ton of uncertainty 12:30 6-3 ruling means it won’t be viewed as a partisan decision 13:00 Trump is a huge loser here 14:30 Trump could have gotten tariff authority from congress in Spring ‘25 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

*Disclaimer* This episode contains strong language Chuck Todd tackles three fast-moving stories shaping the political landscape. First, he digs into the escalating Iran crisis, where the Trump administration has deployed two aircraft carriers, hundreds of fighter jets, and a dozen warships to the Middle East — what Todd calls military adventurism without the consent of Congress. With nuclear talks in Geneva producing no breakthrough and Trump advisers saying there's a 90% chance of kinetic action in the coming weeks, Todd warns that history says hot intervention is coming and that the U.S. may have gone too far to back down, while cautioning that any regime change scenario means America would own the outcome — a lesson the country should have learned from its disastrous track record in Iran. From there, he turns to the Texas Senate race, which he calls an all-timer, breaking down the volatile primaries on both sides: Ken Paxton leading despite millions spent by the GOP establishment to take him down, the tight Crockett-Talarico Democratic primary, and the explosive Colbert-CBS controversy — in which CBS lawyers blocked Colbert from airing a Talarico interview over FCC "equal time" threats, only for the resulting firestorm to generate millions more views on YouTube than it ever would have gotten on broadcast, making Jasmine Crockett the quiet loser in the saga. Todd closes with a sharp critique of crypto's financial coercion of the Democratic Party — pointing to Chuck Schumer reportedly urging Senate Democrats to get on crypto's side after the industry spent heavily to defeat Sherrod Brown — and a Potomac sewage dump that underscores how even basic governance has become hostage to political blame games. Then, George Conway — the conservative lawyer turned leading Trump critic, Lincoln Project co-founder, and now Democratic congressional candidate in New York — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an urgent, no-holds-barred conversation about what he sees as an existential crisis for American constitutional government. Conway, who became a Republican in the 1980s as a "legal conservative" grounded in the Constitution, argues that the party he once joined is now unrecognizable, and that young people have been led to believe conservatism and Trumpism are the same thing. He makes an impassioned case that a third impeachment of Trump isn't just politically justified but a constitutional imperative, warning that Trump is psychologically deteriorating while controlling the military and nuclear arsenal, creating a domestic army through ICE, and presiding over what Conway calls the most corrupt government in America's 250-year history. He points to Mitch McConnell's failure to vote for conviction during the second impeachment trial as the hinge point that could have changed everything — and argues that if impeachment doesn't apply to what Trump has done, the mechanism has no meaning. The conversation goes beyond Trump himself into deeper structural questions about how to repair American democracy. Conway endorses the bipartisan constitutional amendment circulating in the House to nullify presidential pardons — citing Trump intermediaries allegedly being paid for sold pardons — but argues that statutory fixes will be more achievable than amendments, and that Congress needs to codify the old "norms" into enforceable law. He argues that that Democrats should fight fire with fire,  with Chuck warning it only feeds whataboutism, and makes the case for incrementalism and welcoming converts rather than saying "I told you so" — pointing to figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene as case studies in evolving away from Trump. Throughout, Conway returns to a central theme: that no positive policy agenda is possible until the current constitutional crisis is resolved, and that America simply cannot survive three more years of a government working to serve one man. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary bas

*Disclaimer* This episode contains strong language George Conway — the conservative lawyer turned leading Trump critic, Lincoln Project co-founder, and now Democratic congressional candidate in New York — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an urgent, no-holds-barred conversation about what he sees as an existential crisis for American constitutional government. Conway, who became a Republican in the 1980s as a "legal conservative" grounded in the Constitution, argues that the party he once joined is now unrecognizable, and that young people have been led to believe conservatism and Trumpism are the same thing. He makes an impassioned case that a third impeachment of Trump isn't just politically justified but a constitutional imperative, warning that Trump is psychologically deteriorating while controlling the military and nuclear arsenal, creating a domestic army through ICE, and presiding over what Conway calls the most corrupt government in America's 250-year history. He points to Mitch McConnell's failure to vote for conviction during the second impeachment trial as the hinge point that could have changed everything — and argues that if impeachment doesn't apply to what Trump has done, the mechanism has no meaning. The conversation goes beyond Trump himself into deeper structural questions about how to repair American democracy. Conway endorses the bipartisan constitutional amendment circulating in the House to nullify presidential pardons — citing Trump intermediaries allegedly being paid for sold pardons — but argues that statutory fixes will be more achievable than amendments, and that Congress needs to codify the old "norms" into enforceable law. He argues that that Democrats should fight fire with fire,  with Chuck warning it only feeds whataboutism, and makes the case for incrementalism and welcoming converts rather than saying "I told you so" — pointing to figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene as case studies in evolving away from Trump. Throughout, Conway returns to a central theme: that no positive policy agenda is possible until the current constitutional crisis is resolved, and that America simply cannot survive three more years of a government working to serve one man. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast   Timeline: 00:00 George Conway joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:30 The Republican party is unrecognizable today 02:30 Why George became a Republican in the 80’s 04:00 George was a “legal” conservative based on the Constitution 05:00 Nixon did some not so conservative things because they were popular 06:30 Young people think conservatism & Trumpism are the same thing 07:15 The Democratic party is trying to fit a broad coalition under one tent 08:00 We can’t have serious policy debates until the current crisis is over 09:30 Hating corrupt politicians of all stripes, not just one side 10:30 Can’t retire because the last few years have been appalling 11:45 The courts aren’t equipped to deal with someone like Trump 13:30 Could a third impeachment trial weaken the impeachment process? 14:30 Mitch McConnell choked during Trump’s 2nd impeachment trial 15:00 If McConnell voted to convict, others would have followed 16:00 If we can’t impeach Trump for what he’s done… Then why have impeachment? 17:15 Do we want a constitutional government or not? 19:00 Impeaching Trump is as constitutional imperative for congress 19:30 Trump is deteriorating psychologically and controls military & nukes 20:15 Trump is creating his own domestic army with ICE 21:00 The Republic, the constitution and rule of law are all on the line 21:45 We can’t survive three more years of this 22:45 In 250 years, we’ve never seen a government this corrupt 24:30 The internet & media only have so much bandwidth, can’t handle Trump 25:45 The government is only working to serve one man 26:45 If we don’t impeach Trump, we’re throwing out the constitution 27:30 Can you convince Hakeem Jeffries to impeach Trump a 3rd team? 28:30 Trump & his actions will onl

Chuck Todd tackles three fast-moving stories shaping the political landscape. First, he digs into the escalating Iran crisis, where the Trump administration has deployed two aircraft carriers, hundreds of fighter jets, and a dozen warships to the Middle East — what Todd calls military adventurism without the consent of Congress. With nuclear talks in Geneva producing no breakthrough and Trump advisers saying there's a 90% chance of kinetic action in the coming weeks, Todd warns that history says hot intervention is coming and that the U.S. may have gone too far to back down, while cautioning that any regime change scenario means America would own the outcome — a lesson the country should have learned from its disastrous track record in Iran. From there, he turns to the Texas Senate race, which he calls an all-timer, breaking down the volatile primaries on both sides: Ken Paxton leading despite millions spent by the GOP establishment to take him down, the tight Crockett-Talarico Democratic primary, and the explosive Colbert-CBS controversy — in which CBS lawyers blocked Colbert from airing a Talarico interview over FCC "equal time" threats, only for the resulting firestorm to generate millions more views on YouTube than it ever would have gotten on broadcast, making Jasmine Crockett the quiet loser in the saga. Todd closes with a sharp critique of crypto's financial coercion of the Democratic Party — pointing to Chuck Schumer reportedly urging Senate Democrats to get on crypto's side after the industry spent heavily to defeat Sherrod Brown — and a Potomac sewage dump that underscores how even basic governance has become hostage to political blame games. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 2:15 Are we about to go to war with Iran? 3:15 This is military adventurism without consent of congress 4:15 We’ve moved a massive amount of military assets to Middle East 5:30 It’s possible this is all posturing for negotiations 7:45 Does Trump have room to back down, or will it only escalate? 8:45 Will Trump want part of Iran’s oil business in order to back down? 9:15 History says hot military intervention is coming, best not miss 10:15 If we get involved in regime change then we own it 11:15 It feels like we’ve gone too far to back down 13:00 American interventions in Iran have gone terribly in the past 13:45 A democratic Iran would be amazing, but dictating outcomes is hard 14:15 The Texas senate race is becoming an all-timer 15:45 Polls have shown Crockett ahead of Talarico 16:15 Establishment GOP feels Paxton is unelectable 17:00 Millions have been spent by GOP to beat Paxton, he’s still leading 18:30 Paxton’s numbers have gotten worse in general, not benefiting Cornyn 19:15 Both Talarico & Crockett lead Paxton in recent polls 19:45 Democrats are getting help from GOP softening up their nominee 21:45 What’s the path for Coryn to get to 50% + 1? 23:15 Colbert interview with Talarico yanked by CBS due to FCC threats 23:45 The controversy generated millions more views than it would have 25:15 What the “equal time rule” actually states 26:15 Don’t know if either side, Colbert or CBS is giving the full story 27:15 Jasmine Crockett is the loser here 29:15 The unanswered questions from the Colbert controversy persist 31:45 This controversy has been a massive boon for Talarico 33:30 Chuck Schumer begging senate Dems to get to crypto’s side 34:15 This goes beyond lobbying, this is financial coercion 35:00 Crypto used their money to defeat & make example of Sherrod Brown 36:45 Big money is threatening dissent in politics 38:45 Schumer is saying when opponent has enough money, you must appease 39:30 Trump only wants to point fingers over sewage dump in Potomac 40:45 We can’t deal with disaster only based on politics 41:45 Can we stop the blame game and just fix the problem? 42:45 Lack of local c

Chuck Todd explores whether the United States is on the verge of a new reform era — and argues that the signs are more promising than you might think. Starting with a constitutional amendment now circulating in Congress to nullify presidential pardons, backed by both a Maryland Democrat and Republican Don Bacon to give it bipartisan credibility, Todd makes the case that the pardon power has been so thoroughly abused — from Biden's preemptive pardons giving Trump political cover, to Trump intermediaries allegedly being paid for sold pardons — that the kind of structural corruption requiring structural repair is now undeniable. Todd puts this moment in historical context, drawing parallels to the reform cascades that produced the 16th Amendment (born from rampant income inequality), the 17th Amendment (born from a corruption scandal involving the sale of Senate seats), and the 19th Amendment (born when democracy itself felt like it was slipping away), while cautioning that not every reform era gets it right — the 18th Amendment and Prohibition being a case study in moral panic and overcorrection. His broader argument is that reform eras tend to cascade once they begin, that the tools to demand a better democratic structure already exist, and that if Congress shifts from debating revenge to debating reforms, that alone represents meaningful progress. Then, Ambassador Robert Blackwill — a towering figure in American foreign policy who served under Presidents Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush, and is the only person to have served as both U.S. Ambassador to India and Deputy National Security Advisor — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sweeping and sobering conversation about America's position in the world. Blackwill, currently the Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power, argues that the U.S. urgently needs to recapture the kind of bipartisan foreign policy consensus that defined the Cold War era. He calls China the most dangerous rival America has ever faced, warning that Beijing is actively preparing its military for a potential Taiwan invasion — a threat that has only intensified amid China's massive late-2025 military exercises around the island and growing questions about whether the Trump administration would intervene to defend Taipei. The conversation spans the full scope of the global chessboard, from NATO's potential collapse — an especially timely concern as the Pentagon has moved to scale back U.S. participation in NATO advisory groups and Defense Secretary Hegseth skipped the latest defense ministers' meeting in Brussels — to why any Ukraine peace deal will inevitably reward Russian aggression, to Trump's puzzling warmth toward adversaries like China and Russia while publicly disparaging European allies. Blackwill warns that Trump is driving swing countries like India into China's orbit, and that the U.S. isn't headed for a multipolar world but a bipolar one, with China gaining ground across Africa, South America, and Asia. With the 2028 presidential race on the horizon, Blackwill makes a forceful case that the next generation of candidates must present a clear, durable vision for America's role in the world — before it's too late. Finally, Chuck gives his reaction the Munich Security Conference, offers up his ToddCast Top 5 “Most Absurd Awards Created To Soothe Trump’s Ego” and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.  Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:15 A constitutional amendment circulating to nullify presidential pardons 03:45 We may be seeing a structural shift at a time that it’s needed 04:30 Reform eras happen when both sides decide rules need to be tightened 05:00 We’ve seen governors sell pardons, nothing like what Trump’s doing 06:00 Trump intermediaries are getting paid for sold pardons 07:15 Biden’s pardons basically gave Trump license for his corrupt pardons 08:30 For institutional change, you need bad actors on both sides 09:30 Maryland congressman introduced amendment to override pardons 10:15 Don Bacon signed on to endorse amendmen

Ambassador Robert Blackwill — a towering figure in American foreign policy who served under Presidents Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush, and is the only person to have served as both U.S. Ambassador to India and Deputy National Security Advisor — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sweeping and sobering conversation about America's position in the world. Blackwill, currently the Henry A. Kissinger Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power, argues that the U.S. urgently needs to recapture the kind of bipartisan foreign policy consensus that defined the Cold War era. He calls China the most dangerous rival America has ever faced, warning that Beijing is actively preparing its military for a potential Taiwan invasion — a threat that has only intensified amid China's massive late-2025 military exercises around the island and growing questions about whether the Trump administration would intervene to defend Taipei. The conversation spans the full scope of the global chessboard, from NATO's potential collapse — an especially timely concern as the Pentagon has moved to scale back U.S. participation in NATO advisory groups and Defense Secretary Hegseth skipped the latest defense ministers' meeting in Brussels — to why any Ukraine peace deal will inevitably reward Russian aggression, to Trump's puzzling warmth toward adversaries like China and Russia while publicly disparaging European allies. Blackwill warns that Trump is driving swing countries like India into China's orbit, and that the U.S. isn't headed for a multipolar world but a bipolar one, with China gaining ground across Africa, South America, and Asia. With the 2028 presidential race on the horizon, Blackwill makes a forceful case that the next generation of candidates must present a clear, durable vision for America's role in the world — before it's too late. Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Ambassador Robert Blackwill joins the Chuck ToddCast 02:00 America needs to recapture its cold war “bipartisan consensus” 02:30 Alliances contributed to American strength 04:00 Why were assumptions of China joining the world wrong? 06:00 China is the most dangerous rival America has ever had 07:15 Should we have developed an Asian security pact sooner? 09:00 Marxism tells China that for it to be safe, it must lead the world 10:30 Liberal internationalism has gotten weaker in its expression 11:30 What should we make of Xi purging his military leadership? 12:45 U.S. intelligence penetration of China has been limited 14:30 China is working very hard to prepare military for Taiwan invasion 15:45 Worse outcome: Let China invade Taiwan or fight them over it? 16:45 Biden clearly said he’d intervene on behalf of Taiwan 17:30 Trump doesn’t seem inclined to defend Taiwan 18:30 China’s military isn’t battle tested, invasion is a huge risk 19:30 How have Iraq/Afghanistan informed the debate over defending Taiwan? 20:45 A majority of Americans wouldn’t support war with China over Taiwan 22:15 What would you advise next President to do with Taiwan if no war by 2028? 23:00 Trump is unique, will take most of “Trumpism” with him when he leaves 24:30 Debate after Trump will be between nationalism & liberal internationalism 26:00 Tough to know what Democrats strategy for role in the world is 27:00 How do you rebuild alliances in a more durable way? 29:30 The American people don’t support the admins “gangster” foreign policy 31:15 If Europe is separated from the U.S., they’ll truly go on their own 31:45 Trump says nothing positive about Europe, but praises China & Russia 34:00 Hard to believe Donald Trump would abide Article 5 34:45 NATO could collapse if Trump doesn’t respond to action against Baltics 35:30 Taiwan remains greatest risk for the duration of Trump’s term 36:30 Any peace deal in Ukraine will reward Russia’s aggression 37:15 Ukraine remains determined not to lose their statehood 38:00 Putin knows he’ll never have a friendlier American president than Trump 39:00 Intelligence sharing is most valuable thing America provides Ukraine 41:00 Trump can do so much more to rupture o

Chuck Todd explores whether the United States is on the verge of a new reform era — and argues that the signs are more promising than you might think. Starting with a constitutional amendment now circulating in Congress to nullify presidential pardons, backed by both a Maryland Democrat and Republican Don Bacon to give it bipartisan credibility, Todd makes the case that the pardon power has been so thoroughly abused — from Biden's preemptive pardons giving Trump political cover, to Trump intermediaries allegedly being paid for sold pardons — that the kind of structural corruption requiring structural repair is now undeniable. He puts this moment in historical context, drawing parallels to the reform cascades that produced the 16th Amendment (born from rampant income inequality), the 17th Amendment (born from a corruption scandal involving the sale of Senate seats), and the 19th Amendment (born when democracy itself felt like it was slipping away), while cautioning that not every reform era gets it right — the 18th Amendment and Prohibition being a case study in moral panic and overcorrection. His broader argument is that reform eras tend to cascade once they begin, that the tools to demand a better democratic structure already exist, and that if Congress shifts from debating revenge to debating reforms, that alone represents meaningful progress. Finally, Chuck gives his reaction the Munich Security Conference, offers up his ToddCast Top 5 “Most Absurd Awards Created To Soothe Trump’s Ego” and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.  Get your wardrobe sorted and your gift list handled with Quince. Don't wait! Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 00:30 A constitutional amendment circulating to nullify presidential pardons2:00 We may be seeing a structural shift at a time that it’s needed2:45 Reform eras happen when both sides decide rules need to be tightened3:15 We’ve seen governors sell pardons, nothing like what Trump’s doing4:15 Trump intermediaries are getting paid for sold pardons5:30 Biden’s pardons basically gave Trump license for his corrupt pardons6:45 For institutional change, you need bad actors on both sides7:45 Maryland congressman introduced amendment to override pardons8:30 Don Bacon signed on to endorse amendment, makes it bipartisan9:30 Nullification threshold is set pretty high10:45 17th amendment was born out of political corruption scandal12:30 16th amendment born out of rampant income inequality13:45 19th amendment came when it felt like democracy was slipping away14:30 18th amendment came from moral panic, was later repealed15:15 Reforms can be necessary, some are an overcorrection16:15 Structural corruption requires structural repair, requires amendment17:30 Other areas of structural reform that could gain traction19:15 Reform eras don’t stop with one thing, tend to cascade21:00 We have the tools to demand a better structure for democracy22:45 If congress is debating reforms instead of revenge, that’s progress 31:15 We need a consensus on America’s role in the world 32:00 Reaction to Munich security conference 32:30 Rubio sees himself as a bridge to the rules based order & Trump 33:45 Trump will easily throw Rubio or Vance under the bus 35:00 AOC didn’t seem to have the most prepared answers in Munich 36:30 The right wants to dunk on AOC, when Trump is far more ignorant 37:45 We hold political opponents to far higher standards than our own team 38:15 ToddCast Top 5 Most Absurd Awards Created To Soothe Trump’s Ego 39:00 #5 McDonald’s french fry certification pin 39:45 #4 Undisputed Champion of Clean Coal award 40:45 #3 FIFA Peace Prize 41:45 #2 The Tim Cook Special 42:45 #1 NRSC Champion For Freedom Bowl 44:15 Giving out these awards is a terrible look 44:45 The actual Nobel Peace Prize given by Machado did not qualify for list 45:45 Trump is desperate for historic accolades 46:30 Ask Chuck 46:45 Will we live to see a Democratic elected statewide in Tennessee? 53:00 Loved history lesson on importance of 1848, could you expand on it? 56:45 What rights from the Bill of Rights has Trump NOT violated? 58:45 Why aren’t SCOTUS potential retirements getting more attention?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.