The Chuck ToddCast

Eyck Freymann — Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of the new book Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a riveting conversation about the world's most dangerous geopolitical flashpoint at a moment when America is stretched dangerously thin by the Iran war. Freymann argues that the remainder of Trump's term represents a unique window of opportunity for Xi Jinping to move on Taiwan, not necessarily through a dramatic amphibious invasion — which Taiwan's geography makes incredibly difficult and which would result in the U.S. destroying China's navy and air force in a high-intensity conflict — but through coercion, quarantine, or political manipulation designed to change Taiwan's orientation without firing a shot. He explains that Taiwan is more than a strategic asset for China: it's a democratic success story that represents a shining alternative to CCP rule, making it the lynchpin of Xi's "national rejuvenation" project. Freymann unpacks Xi's recent purges of top military leaders as a sign that he now has full control of the PLA, notes that Western intelligence agencies have struggled to penetrate China's inner circle, and warns that Xi may issue direct threats to Taiwan during their 2028 election — a pattern of coercion that the U.S. must develop tools to deter. The conversation turns to what a realistic defense strategy looks like — and what the Iran war is teaching Beijing in real time. Freymann pushes back on war games that show China winning, arguing they aren't a crystal ball and that the U.S. retains significant advantages in cyber warfare and conventional naval power. But he warns that China is more likely to pursue a "quarantine" rather than a full blockade — a semantic distinction with enormous legal and strategic implications, since a blockade would turn the entire world against China while a quarantine creates more ambiguity. He notes that China is carefully studying both Russia's failures in Ukraine and America's struggles in Iran to learn what not to do. His bottom line: in the best-case scenario, we're headed for another cold war — but China doesn't actually want to fight the United States because the risks are far too high, and the American public, already exhausted by Iran, has zero appetite for another conflict. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Eyck Freymann joins The Chuck ToddCast 02:00 What is the strategy for defending Taiwan? 02:45 The U.S. has a long-standing “One China” policy 03:45 The goal is to let the Taiwan situation get resolved peacefully 05:15 What’s the practical reason the Chinese want Taiwan so badly? 05:45 Taiwan is a democratic success story, shining alternative to CCP 06:45 Taiwan’s geography makes an invasion incredibly difficult 08:15 If China can take Taiwan, other dominoes in the region could fall 09:00 Taiwan is a “nice to have” not “need to have” for China 10:30 China’s project is “national rejuvenation”, Taiwan is lynchpin of that 12:00 U.S. stretched thin, best chance for China is while Trump is president? 13:15 Remainder of Trump’s term is unique opportunity for Xi 15:45 How should we read Xi’s purges of top military leaders? 17:15 Xi Jinping doesn’t give many interviews, remains an enigma 20:00 Western intelligence agencies have struggled to penetrate China 21:45 Xi is in full control of the PLA after the military purges 22:45 The last thing you want to be in CCP is the rumored successor to Xi 24:00 Xi may issue threats to Taiwan during their 2028 election 26:30 How does the U.S. deter coercion of Taiwan by China? 27:45 War games showing China wins more often are not a crystal ball for reality 28:30 A high intensity war would result in the U.S. destroying PLA navy & air force 29:15 U.S. has advantage over China in cyber warfare 30:45 U.S. can stabilize the situation by responding proportionally 32:00 China thinks they can win a PR war, change Taiwan politically in their favor 33:30 American public has no appetite for war, Iran war unpopular from Day 1 35:00 Could Taiwanese who want independence just flee the country? 37:15 Occupying Taipei would make Kabul & Mosul look like child’s play 38:15 A blockade of Taiwan is Plan B, not Plan A 39:30 A blockade would turn the entire world against China 40:15 China more likely to “quarantine” Taiwan than blockade 42:00 China has grown a middle class that will demand services & stability 43:30 China’s economic ties to other countries create their own deterrence 46:00 China is 1/3rd of world manufacturing, in every global supply chain 47:45 Some version of TPP is coming back because we don’t have a choice 49:30 In the best case scenario, we’re headed for another cold war 52:00 Invading via the Taiwan strait is incredibly difficult 53:00 Chinese military is u

Chuck Todd reacts to the breaking news that Trump has fired Attorney General Pam Bondi — the second Cabinet member ousted in a month after Kristi Noem — and warns that what should alarm Americans isn't Bondi's departure but what comes next. He explains that like Jeff Sessions before her, Bondi apparently had lines she wouldn't cross: Trump grew frustrated that she hadn't prosecuted enough of his political enemies and was dissatisfied with her handling of the Epstein files. He traces Bondi's complicated history with Trump back to 2013, when she received fraud complaints against Trump University as Florida's attorney general, then dropped the investigation after a Trump PAC donated to her campaign — a transactional relationship that defined her entire arc. He argues that Trump doesn't believe in an independent justice system and never has, that he doesn't care about the law but only about loyalty, and that Bondi — a former Democrat who grew up in politics and was once a mostly by-the-book prosecutor in Tampa — has now destroyed her reputation with everyone by serving a president who discards people the moment they become inconvenient. With Trump's former personal criminal defense attorney Todd Blanche now installed as acting AG and Lee Zeldin reportedly under consideration as permanent replacement, Todd warns the DOJ could get far worse. He closes by turning to the Iran war's cascading energy crisis, which he says will be the worst the world has ever seen with Russia and China as the primary beneficiaries, and lays out the impossible bind: the U.S. will likely have to deploy ground troops to secure the Strait of Hormuz, but there will be disasters whether Trump commits those forces or simply walks away. Then, Eyck Freymann — Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of the new book Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a riveting conversation about the world's most dangerous geopolitical flashpoint at a moment when America is stretched dangerously thin by the Iran war. Freymann argues that the remainder of Trump's term represents a unique window of opportunity for Xi Jinping to move on Taiwan, not necessarily through a dramatic amphibious invasion — which Taiwan's geography makes incredibly difficult and which would result in the U.S. destroying China's navy and air force in a high-intensity conflict — but through coercion, quarantine, or political manipulation designed to change Taiwan's orientation without firing a shot. He explains that Taiwan is more than a strategic asset for China: it's a democratic success story that represents a shining alternative to CCP rule, making it the lynchpin of Xi's "national rejuvenation" project. Freymann unpacks Xi's recent purges of top military leaders as a sign that he now has full control of the PLA, notes that Western intelligence agencies have struggled to penetrate China's inner circle, and warns that Xi may issue direct threats to Taiwan during their 2028 election — a pattern of coercion that the U.S. must develop tools to deter. The conversation turns to what a realistic defense strategy looks like — and what the Iran war is teaching Beijing in real time. Freymann pushes back on war games that show China winning, arguing they aren't a crystal ball and that the U.S. retains significant advantages in cyber warfare and conventional naval power. But he warns that China is more likely to pursue a "quarantine" rather than a full blockade — a semantic distinction with enormous legal and strategic implications, since a blockade would turn the entire world against China while a quarantine creates more ambiguity. He notes that China is carefully studying both Russia's failures in Ukraine and America's struggles in Iran to learn what not to do. His bottom line: in the best-case scenario, we're headed for another cold war — but China doesn't actually want to fight the United States because the risks are far too high, and the American public, already exhausted by Iran, has zero appetite for another conflict. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:15 Trump fires Attorney General Pam Bondi 04:15 There were things Bondi wasn’t comfortable doing, like Jeff Sessions 05:30 Trump doesn’t believe in an independent justice system 06:30 Trump wants the DOJ to serve hi

Chuck Todd reacts to the breaking news that Trump has fired Attorney General Pam Bondi — the second Cabinet member ousted in a month after Kristi Noem — and warns that what should alarm Americans isn't Bondi's departure but what comes next. He explains that like Jeff Sessions before her, Bondi apparently had lines she wouldn't cross: Trump grew frustrated that she hadn't prosecuted enough of his political enemies and was dissatisfied with her handling of the Epstein files. He traces Bondi's complicated history with Trump back to 2013, when she received fraud complaints against Trump University as Florida's attorney general, then dropped the investigation after a Trump PAC donated to her campaign — a transactional relationship that defined her entire arc. He argues that Trump doesn't believe in an independent justice system and never has, that he doesn't care about the law but only about loyalty, and that Bondi — a former Democrat who grew up in politics and was once a mostly by-the-book prosecutor in Tampa — has now destroyed her reputation with everyone by serving a president who discards people the moment they become inconvenient. With Trump's former personal criminal defense attorney Todd Blanche now installed as acting AG and Lee Zeldin reportedly under consideration as permanent replacement, Todd warns the DOJ could get far worse. He closes by turning to the Iran war's cascading energy crisis, which he says will be the worst the world has ever seen with Russia and China as the primary beneficiaries, and lays out the impossible bind: the U.S. will likely have to deploy ground troops to secure the Strait of Hormuz, but there will be disasters whether Trump commits those forces or simply walks away. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.   Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:15 Trump fires Attorney General Pam Bondi 04:15 There were things Bondi wasn’t comfortable doing, like Jeff Sessions 05:30 Trump doesn’t believe in an independent justice system 06:30 Trump wants the DOJ to serve his own ends 07:45 Trump doesn’t care about the law, he cares about loyalty 09:00 Bondi used to be a Democrat, grew up in the world of politics 10:30 Bondi used to be a mostly by the book prosecutor in Tampa 12:00 In 2013, Bondi received fraud complaints against Trump University 12:30 Trump PAC donated to Bondi, the she dropped the lawsuit 13:15 Like Bill Barr, there were lines Bondi wouldn’t cross 14:15 Bondi has hurt her reputation with everyone by working for Trump 15:15 Bondi’s firing should concern everyone. DOJ could get far worse  16:00 Energy crisis due to Iran will be the worst ever. Russia & China benefit 17:30 We’re going to have to use ground troops to secure Strait of Hormuz 18:15 There will be disasters if Trump just leaves, and disasters with ground troops 23:15 Ask ChuckSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a devastating week-by-week timeline of Trump's increasingly incoherent Iran war messaging that reads like a case study in presidential self-entrapment. He reports that military movements on the ground suggest escalation even as Trump's rhetoric promises de-escalation, that Defense Secretary Hegseth was allegedly looking into investments in defense stocks before the war began, that Pam Bondi's DOJ has been quietly dropping huge numbers of white-collar cases, and that in the middle of a war, Trump has proposed building a massive skyscraper Trump library in Miami — all while reports emerge that the president is simply getting bored with the conflict. He warns that the second and third-order effects of the war haven't landed yet but will hit hard in the next four to six weeks, that markets look calmer than they should given the geopolitical reality. He also flags that Trump's poll numbers are lower than ever and the political environment is so favorable for Democrats they should win both chambers without even needing redistricting help, and closes with the emergence of a new but manageable COVID variant dubbed "Cicada" — a reminder that we can no longer rely on HHS to provide normal, common-sense public health guidance when the country needs it most. Finally Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 Republican senate seats most likely to turn blue in the midterm elections and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:15 Trump’s rhetoric over the war is confusing. Keeps saying it’s almost over 02:45 Military movements suggest we’re about to escalate the war 03:15 Trump is trying to balance the war with the markets 04:45 Week 1 Trump tried to project a sense of control, and says war will be short 05:30 In Week 2, Trump proposes something like a Marshall Plan for Iran 06:15 In Week 3, Trump promises that Iran is seeking a deal 07:00 Week 4, Trump proposes a pause on strikes to calm markets 07:45 Now Trump says talks are happening, but also issues threats to infrastructure 08:30 Trump’s social posts are frontrunning the Pentagon briefings 09:15 Trump knows he’s boxed himself in, put himself in impossible situation 10:30 Trump is clearly manipulating the markets with his social posts 11:45 Hegseth was allegedly looking into investments in defense stocks before war 13:30 Pam Bondi’s DOJ has been dropping huge numbers of white-collar cases 15:30 During a war, Trump proposes a huge skyscraper Trump library in Miami 17:15 Reports are that Trump is getting bored with the war 18:00 Trump’s poll numbers are lower than ever, Dems should win both houses 19:00 Political environment is so favorable for Dems, they don’t need redistricting 21:00 Markets look calmer than they should considering geopolitical concerns 22:00 2nd & 3rd effects of the war haven’t landed yet 23:30 The effects of the war are likely to hit hard in the next 4-6 weeks 24:30 Trump treated NATO allies terribly, then gets mad they won’t bail him out 25:30 If Trump walks away, he hands Iran more leverage of Strait of Hormuz 26:45 Eventually the markets & traders will have to accept reality 27:30 Trump cares most about his financial allies that pay him personally 29:30 The Gulf states thought they could manipulate Trump, but he’s erratic 30:15 Gulf states are probably having buyer’s remorse 31:30 War is accelerating green energy transition, China set to benefit most 32:45 War has strengthened Russia & China, weakened the United States 34:30 New but manageable COVID variant has emerged, the Cicada variant 36:00 We can’t rely on HHS to give us normal common sense health advice 40:00 Don’t forget Local News Day on April 9th! 40:45 ToddCast Top 5 Republican senate seats most likely to turn blue 42:15 The political environment for Republicans is terrible 43:15 May will be the month where we see if Republicans break with Trump 44:30 #1 North Carolina 46:00 #2 Maine 48:00 #3 Ohio 50:45 #4 Alaska 52:00 #5 Nebraska 57:45 Ask Chuck 58:00 What is going on with all the alien talk from government officials lately? 1:01:45 Is it possible to play by the old rules when both parties feel fight is existential? 1:05:15 Why don’t journalists more directly call out obvious lies?  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Vanan Murugesan — executive director of Sahan Journal, Minnesota's only nonprofit newsroom dedicated to covering immigrants and communities of color — joins the Chuck Toddcast ahead of Local News Day on April 9th to discuss a dimension of the local news crisis that rarely gets attention: community news deserts. Murugesan explains that even in Minnesota — a state with relatively strong local news — immigrant stories were consistently missed or covered with biased narratives by mainstream outlets. He draws a vivid analogy: mainstream news organizations are like Target, offering broad coverage for a general audience, while immigrant outlets are specialty stores that reflect the specific realities of their communities.  The conversation turns to the business of sustaining community journalism in a fractured media landscape. Murugesan argues that the ideal model is 50 to 70 percent reader-funded through a combination of subscribers and donors, noting that audience size isn't the ultimate goal — who the audience is can matter as much as how large it is. He explains that immigrant newsrooms actually have an advantage because they don't follow the conservative, cautious practices of legacy media — they're willing to experiment with video, social media, and syndication partnerships that allow them to overindex their audience relative to their size. They discuss why  local service journalism — helping people navigate schools, immigration processes, and government services — isn't always sexy but is incredibly useful, while insisting that the joyful parts of the immigrant experience need to be better covered alongside the hardship. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Vanan Murugesan (Sahan Journal) joins the Chuck ToddCast 02:00 There are both local news deserts, and community news deserts 03:00 How would you describe the Sahan Journal and its mission? 04:00 Minnesota has great local news, but immigrant stories were missed 06:30 Immigrant media was created to reflect realities of their audience 08:30 Immigrants truly want to understand the place they’re living in 10:00 Mainstream outlets are like Target, immigrant outlets are specialty stores 12:00 How do you decide when a community needs a full time reporter? 13:00 Sahan publishes in English to serve all Minnesotans  15:00 Addressing immigrant issues can uplift the entire community 16:30 Why not publish in multiple languages? Is it a resource issue? 17:30 Sahan added a spanish language version 18:30 Insisted on using a spanish speaking human for translations 19:30 Digital tools allow for pretty good translation 22:30 What works about the nonprofit model? Could you see going for-profit? 23:30 Sustainability is the ultimate goal regardless of profit model 25:15 Generating revenue from subscribers + donors is the ideal model 26:45 Washington Post has become beholden to Jeff Bezos 28:45 Ideally, 50-70% reader funded is the business model 29:30 Audience size isn’t the ultimate panacea 30:30 Who the audience is can matter as much as the size of it 32:30 Craigslist destroyed the business model for local newspapers 35:00 Newsrooms tend to be conservative and cautious trying new models 38:30 Immigrant newsrooms due well to not follow national media practices 41:00 Media is fracturing, but the barrier to entry is getting lower 43:00 Able to overindex audience by using video & social media 44:00 Are you able to syndicate any of your work to other outlets? 45:30 Finding stories they can collaborate on with other outlets 46:30 Local service journalism isn’t always sexy but is incredibly useful 47:30 What type of service journalism do you produce? 48:45 The joyful part of the immigrant experience needs to be better covered 50:00 Trying to balance what the audience wants with what they need 51:45 Celebrating Local News Day on April 9thSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a devastating week-by-week timeline of Trump's increasingly incoherent Iran war messaging that reads like a case study in presidential self-entrapment. He reports that military movements on the ground suggest escalation even as Trump's rhetoric promises de-escalation, that Defense Secretary Hegseth was allegedly looking into investments in defense stocks before the war began, that Pam Bondi's DOJ has been quietly dropping huge numbers of white-collar cases, and that in the middle of a war, Trump has proposed building a massive skyscraper Trump library in Miami — all while reports emerge that the president is simply getting bored with the conflict. He warns that the second and third-order effects of the war haven't landed yet but will hit hard in the next four to six weeks, that markets look calmer than they should given the geopolitical reality. He also flags that Trump's poll numbers are lower than ever and the political environment is so favorable for Democrats they should win both chambers without even needing redistricting help, and closes with the emergence of a new but manageable COVID variant dubbed "Cicada" — a reminder that we can no longer rely on HHS to provide normal, common-sense public health guidance when the country needs it most. Then, Vanan Murugesan — executive director of Sahan Journal, Minnesota's only nonprofit newsroom dedicated to covering immigrants and communities of color — joins the Chuck Toddcast ahead of Local News Day on April 9th to discuss a dimension of the local news crisis that rarely gets attention: community news deserts. Murugesan explains that even in Minnesota — a state with relatively strong local news — immigrant stories were consistently missed or covered with biased narratives by mainstream outlets. He draws a vivid analogy: mainstream news organizations are like Target, offering broad coverage for a general audience, while immigrant outlets are specialty stores that reflect the specific realities of their communities.  The conversation turns to the business of sustaining community journalism in a fractured media landscape. Murugesan argues that the ideal model is 50 to 70 percent reader-funded through a combination of subscribers and donors, noting that audience size isn't the ultimate goal — who the audience is can matter as much as how large it is. He explains that immigrant newsrooms actually have an advantage because they don't follow the conservative, cautious practices of legacy media — they're willing to experiment with video, social media, and syndication partnerships that allow them to overindex their audience relative to their size. They discuss why  local service journalism — helping people navigate schools, immigration processes, and government services — isn't always sexy but is incredibly useful, while insisting that the joyful parts of the immigrant experience need to be better covered alongside the hardship. Finally Chuck updates his ToddCast Top 5 Republican senate seats most likely to turn blue in the midterm elections and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:15 Trump’s rhetoric over the war is confusing. Keeps saying it’s almost over 02:45 Military movements suggest we’re about to escalate the war 03:15 Trump is trying to balance the war with the markets 04:45 Week 1 Trump tried to project a sense of control, and says war will be short 05:30 In Week 2, Trump proposes something like a Marshall Plan for Iran 06:15 In Week 3, Trump promises that Iran is seeking a deal 07:00 Week 4, Trump proposes a pause on strikes to calm markets 07:45 Now Trump says talks are happening, but also issues threats to infrastructure 08:30 Trump’s social posts are frontrunning the Pentagon briefings 09:15 Trump knows he’s boxed himself in, put himself in impossible situation 10:30 Trump is clearly manipulating the markets with his social posts 11:45 Hegseth was allegedly looking into investments in defense stocks before war 13:30 Pam Bondi’s DOJ has been dropping huge numbers of white-collar cases 15:30 During a war, Trump proposes a huge skyscraper Trump library in Miami 17:15 Reports are that Trump is getting bored with the war 18:00 Trump’s poll numbers are lower than ever, Dems should win both houses 19:00 Political environment is so favorable for Dems

Chuck Todd asks the most uncomfortable question in American politics: is the country's current dysfunction a problem that can be resolved at the ballot box, or are we living through a pre-Civil War style pressure buildup where fundamental divisions keep getting papered over rather than addressed? He draws a striking parallel between today's hyperpartisan era — where both parties are simultaneously fighting each other and tearing themselves apart internally — and the post-Jackson period of American politics, when the country flipped back and forth between parties without ever resolving the underlying wound of slavery. He traces the arc from the Compromise of 1850, when Millard Fillmore believed he'd saved the republic, through the repeal of the Missouri Compromise that led to Bleeding Kansas, to James Buchanan handing Abraham Lincoln a country already on fire — and asks whether modern America can heal its divides without mass violence. He closes with Lincoln's insight that you couldn't solve the divide by managing it — but insists it doesn't have to take a hot civil war to resolve America's fractures, even if it increasingly feels like the country still isn't ready to do the hard work of actually turning the page. Then, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan — the moderate Democrat, former tech entrepreneur, and Harvard-educated candidate for California governor — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a policy-dense conversation about what's wrong with California governance and how to fix it. Mahan argues that California has enormous resources but isn't delivering better results, and that the best form of resistance to Trumpism isn't performative opposition but good governance that actually improves people's lives. He walks through his record in San Jose — where he prioritized basic dignified shelter over expensive permanent housing and is now leading the state in reducing unsheltered homelessness — and makes the case that expensive housing is fundamentally a public policy failure driven by environmental review processes that needlessly slow construction. On AI, Mahan notes that Silicon Valley's libertarian tech culture has historically disengaged from civic life, but warns that AI is coming fast and California has both the responsibility and the opportunity to set guardrails that could become the national standard — particularly around transparency in government data use and serious law enforcement around data violations. The conversation gets politically candid as they navigate the tensions within the Democratic Party. Mahan argues that California Democrats can't blame anyone else for the state's governance failures, that every year revenue goes up faster than population growth yet outcomes get worse, and that highly organized interest groups end up wielding a veto over meaningful change. He opposes the proposed California billionaire wealth tax — not because he's defending billionaires, he insists, but because taxing the ultra-wealthy needs to happen at the federal level to avoid driving companies out of state — and disagrees with Newsom's handling of Proposition 36, arguing the state should force people into either treatment or jail rather than allowing open drug markets. On California's jungle primary, Mahan dismisses concerns about two Republican candidates advancing as overblown, pushes back on the idea he should run as an independent, and contends that Democrats need to update their platform and make government actually work rather than relying on "resistance warrior" posturing.  Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of NATO in 1949 and asks whether an alliance built on stability and values can survive a transactional president like Donald Trump, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:00 Reaction to March Madness 03:15 Nats are 2-1!  08:45 Trump orders TSA workers to be paid via executive order 09:45 Both parties are fighting each other, and also infighting 10:45 The house has the hardliners, the senate has the compromisers 11:15 Is the country ready to move on from dysfunction & hyperpartisanship? 13:30 For the 21st century, the country has flipped back & forth between parties 14:15 Similarities to the post-Jackson era of American politics 16:30 Problems and divisions were left unresolved 18:00 The wound over slavery was never healed, pressure kept bui

Chuck Todd asks the most uncomfortable question in American politics: is the country's current dysfunction a problem that can be resolved at the ballot box, or are we living through a pre-Civil War style pressure buildup where fundamental divisions keep getting papered over rather than addressed? He draws a striking parallel between today's hyperpartisan era — where both parties are simultaneously fighting each other and tearing themselves apart internally — and the post-Jackson period of American politics, when the country flipped back and forth between parties without ever resolving the underlying wound of slavery. He traces the arc from the Compromise of 1850, when Millard Fillmore believed he'd saved the republic, through the repeal of the Missouri Compromise that led to Bleeding Kansas, to James Buchanan handing Abraham Lincoln a country already on fire — and asks whether modern America can heal its divides without mass violence. He closes with Lincoln's insight that you couldn't solve the divide by managing it — but insists it doesn't have to take a hot civil war to resolve America's fractures, even if it increasingly feels like the country still isn't ready to do the hard work of actually turning the page. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of NATO in 1949 and asks whether an alliance built on stability and values can survive a transactional president like Donald Trump, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:00 Reaction to March Madness 03:15 Nats are 2-1!  6:45 Trump orders TSA workers to be paid via executive order  7:45 Both parties are fighting each other, and also infighting  8:45 The house has the hardliners, the senate has the compromisers  9:15 Is the country ready to move on from dysfunction & hyperpartisanship?  11:30 For the 21st century, the country has flipped back & forth between parties  12:15 Similarities to the post-Jackson era of American politics  14:30 Problems and divisions were left unresolved  16:00 The wound over slavery was never healed, pressure kept building  17:00 Fillmore offered the compromise of 1850, thought he saved the republic  18:45 The Missouri Compromise was repealed, led to conflict in Kansas  20:30 Buchanon handed Lincoln a country already on fire  21:15 Can modern America heal its divides without mass violence?  22:15 8 million turned out for No Kings protests  23:45 CPAC was completely different universe compared to No Kings  25:00 Trump’s poll numbers are tanking on multiple issues  25:45 Democrats brand is still worse than Republicans in polls  26:30 We don’t seem to have the leaders we need to turn the page  27:15 The economy is a mess and it’s almost entirely Trump’s fault  28:15 The GOP hasn’t finished its own internal reckoning  29:30 It feels like America still isn’t ready to turn the page yet  30:30 The two parties have two fundamentally different visions for America  33:00 Will 2026 be a paradigm shift, or yet another pendulum swing?  34:00 Lincoln understood you couldn’t solve the divide by managing it  37:00 It doesn’t have to take a hot civil war to solve America’s divides 42:30 California’s governor race still shaping up 44:15 ToddCast Time Machine April 4th 1949 45:00 12 countries met to create the North Atlantic Treaty Organization 46:15 League of Nations didn’t have any binding enforcement mechanisms 47:15 Breakthrough came via the Vandenberg Resolution 48:15 Article 5 allowed constitutional discretion, made ratification possible 49:30 In 1955, West Germany was admitted, but it was uncomfortable 50:15 NATO has a simple purpose, deter the Soviet Union 50:45 NATO continued to grow eastward 53:00 Trump believes NATO should do whatever he wants them to 53:30 Trump has made NATO believe America’s help is conditional 54:30 Can an alliance built on certainty function in this era? 55:45 What happens to Ukraine portends whether NATO can survive 56:00 Ask Chuck 56:15 Why has job creation stopped being part of our political discourse? 1:00:15 What other points of leverage like the Strait of Hormuz exist in the world? 1:02:15 Trump conflates political asylum with insane asylums? 1:03:15 Democrats' problem less about leaders & instead poor mes

San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan — the moderate Democrat, former tech entrepreneur, and Harvard-educated candidate for California governor — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a policy-dense conversation about what's wrong with California governance and how to fix it. Mahan argues that California has enormous resources but isn't delivering better results, and that the best form of resistance to Trumpism isn't performative opposition but good governance that actually improves people's lives. He walks through his record in San Jose — where he prioritized basic dignified shelter over expensive permanent housing and is now leading the state in reducing unsheltered homelessness — and makes the case that expensive housing is fundamentally a public policy failure driven by environmental review processes that needlessly slow construction. On AI, Mahan notes that Silicon Valley's libertarian tech culture has historically disengaged from civic life, but warns that AI is coming fast and California has both the responsibility and the opportunity to set guardrails that could become the national standard — particularly around transparency in government data use and serious law enforcement around data violations. The conversation gets politically candid as they navigate the tensions within the Democratic Party. Mahan argues that California Democrats can't blame anyone else for the state's governance failures, that every year revenue goes up faster than population growth yet outcomes get worse, and that highly organized interest groups end up wielding a veto over meaningful change. He opposes the proposed California billionaire wealth tax — not because he's defending billionaires, he insists, but because taxing the ultra-wealthy needs to happen at the federal level to avoid driving companies out of state — and disagrees with Newsom's handling of Proposition 36, arguing the state should force people into either treatment or jail rather than allowing open drug markets. On California's jungle primary, Mahan dismisses concerns about two Republican candidates advancing as overblown, pushes back on the idea he should run as an independent, and contends that Democrats need to update their platform and make government actually work rather than relying on "resistance warrior" posturing.  Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Mayor Matt Mahan joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:30 What got you into politics and made you want to run for mayor? 03:30 What are the other Dems in the race missing that you can bring? 04:45 California has a lot of resources but isn’t delivering better results 06:00 San Jose become the place where Palo Alto workers actually live 07:30 Why has San Jose lacked a real urban center? 08:45 Tech sector is very libertarian & didn’t really engage the community 11:15 Concerns that AI is coming quickly & can do both good and harm 12:45 If California puts guardrails on AI, that could become national standard 14:00 Government has responsibility to be transparent about AI data use 15:30 California has to create framework for AI security, regulation & transparency 16:15 The unknown of AI has created fear amongst the American public 17:30 The lack of trust in AI is because social media has been such a negative 19:00 There needs to be serious law enforcement around data violations 20:15 Media literacy & critical thinking need to be taught in public schools 21:45 What are you getting right in tackling homelessness in San Jose? 22:45 Prioritized basic dignified shelter over expensive permanent housing 24:00 San Jose is leading California in solving homelessness 25:00 California hasn’t built enough shelter or treatment facilities 26:00 Expensive housing is a public policy failure 26:45 Why does environmental review have to slow down construction? 28:00 Environmental impacts go far beyond just clean air & water 28:45 Technology can drastically speed up environmental review 30:00 Infill construction permits should be approved/denied in 30 days 31:30 Are tenant protection laws sufficient to protect ADU renters? 33:00 22% of new housing built in San Jose is ADUs 33:30 Are taxes too high in California? 34:15 California has one of the most progressive tax structures in the country 34:45 Gas tax is one of California’s most regressive, EV owners need to pay 36:15 A per vehicle flat fee for both gas & EVs makes the most sense 38:00 Every year revenue goes up faster than population w/ worse outcomes 39:15 What has Newsom go

Chuck Todd reveals that Trump's planned visit to Beijing on May 14th and 15th may function as a de facto deadline for wrapping up the Iran war, noting that Trump wants to end the conflict more than the Iranian regime does — a devastating negotiating position — and that his own voters are being hit hardest by soaring gas prices since they drive more than the average American, while lawmakers in compact D.C. remain insulated from the pain. He unpacks the Gulf states' precarious calculus: the Saudis and Emiratis are terrified Trump will retreat and leave Iran with leverage, knowing that once the U.S. leaves the region it isn't coming back anytime soon, but they also have significant business leverage over Trump and his family that complicates every decision. He then pivots to what should be a triumphant moment for Democrats — they've flipped 30 Republican seats since Trump took office without losing a single one, won two government shutdowns, and are operating in the best political climate in years — but finds a party that feels leaderless, with Chuck Schumer at the center of the dysfunction. He reports that some Senate Democrats want Schumer to step aside, that he's become paranoid about leaks and tells different caucus members what they want to hear (a tactic known internally as "getting Schumed"), He closes with a sharp critique of Democrats in Virginia who are advocating for indefensible partisan redistricting — arguing that the Democratic brand still has lower favorability than both the GOP and MAGA brands, that the Democratic base is smaller than the Republican base and therefore needs moderates to win, and that deploying the same gerrymandering tactics they claim to oppose is exactly the kind of hypocrisy that keeps voters from trusting the party. Then, Maryland Congressman Johnny Olszewski — the author of the Pardon Integrity Act, a proposed constitutional amendment that would give Congress the power to reject presidential pardons with a two-thirds supermajority vote — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a frank conversation about fixing a broken democracy and what Democrats should prioritize if they retake the House. Olszewski argues that the presidential pardon is the biggest loophole between democracy and autocracy, a power straight out of a monarchy that the founders failed to adequately check, and notes that Congress actually tried to curb pardon authority after Nixon but the effort stalled. His amendment, which is structured like a veto override and has already attracted Republican co-sponsor Don Bacon, would allow 20 House members and five senators to initiate a review process with 60 days to nullify a pardon. Olszewski is careful to spread the blame across parties — calling Trump's 1,600 pardons in 2025 alone "exceptionally egregious" but acknowledges that Biden’s preemptive pardons were a bad thing — and says nobody in Congress actually thinks the proposal is a bad idea. The conversation broadens into a sobering assessment of congressional dysfunction and the state of American democracy. Olszewski describes the current Congress as one of the least productive ever, with both parties proposing unpassable messaging bills rather than legislating, and warns that partisan redistricting combined with partisan primaries creates a vicious cycle where the Republicans most willing to compromise are the ones most likely to lose their primaries. On Democratic strategy, Olszewski argues that if impeachable offenses exist they should be pursued but the party must focus on voters' needs, that Hakeem Jeffries should center his speakership on affordability if Democrats retake the House, and that Congress needs to come together to ban bipartisan gerrymandering. He insists that repairing democracy transcends partisan politics — the country needs people to believe in the institution of Congress again, and that requires restraints not just on this president but on all future ones. Finally, Chuck proposes a major change to the NCAA basketball tournament… an expanded, 96 team playoff that would benefit both athletics and academics, celebrates the start of the MLB season, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 07:30 We may have a new deadline for Trump to wrap up the Iran war 08:00 Trump to visit Beijing on May 14th & 15th 09:15 Trump wants to end the war more than the Iranian regime 10:45 Trump voters

Chuck Todd reveals that Trump's planned visit to Beijing on May 14th and 15th may function as a de facto deadline for wrapping up the Iran war, noting that Trump wants to end the conflict more than the Iranian regime does — a devastating negotiating position — and that his own voters are being hit hardest by soaring gas prices since they drive more than the average American, while lawmakers in compact D.C. remain insulated from the pain. He unpacks the Gulf states' precarious calculus: the Saudis and Emiratis are terrified Trump will retreat and leave Iran with leverage, knowing that once the U.S. leaves the region it isn't coming back anytime soon, but they also have significant business leverage over Trump and his family that complicates every decision. He then pivots to what should be a triumphant moment for Democrats — they've flipped 30 Republican seats since Trump took office without losing a single one, won two government shutdowns, and are operating in the best political climate in years — but finds a party that feels leaderless, with Chuck Schumer at the center of the dysfunction. He reports that some Senate Democrats want Schumer to step aside, that he's become paranoid about leaks and tells different caucus members what they want to hear (a tactic known internally as "getting Schumed"), He closes with a sharp critique of Democrats in Virginia who are advocating for indefensible partisan redistricting — arguing that the Democratic brand still has lower favorability than both the GOP and MAGA brands, that the Democratic base is smaller than the Republican base and therefore needs moderates to win, and that deploying the same gerrymandering tactics they claim to oppose is exactly the kind of hypocrisy that keeps voters from trusting the party. Then, Maryland Congressman Johnny Olszewski — the author of the Pardon Integrity Act, a proposed constitutional amendment that would give Congress the power to reject presidential pardons with a two-thirds supermajority vote — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a frank conversation about fixing a broken democracy and what Democrats should prioritize if they retake the House. Olszewski argues that the presidential pardon is the biggest loophole between democracy and autocracy, a power straight out of a monarchy that the founders failed to adequately check, and notes that Congress actually tried to curb pardon authority after Nixon but the effort stalled. His amendment, which is structured like a veto override and has already attracted Republican co-sponsor Don Bacon, would allow 20 House members and five senators to initiate a review process with 60 days to nullify a pardon. Olszewski is careful to spread the blame across parties — calling Trump's 1,600 pardons in 2025 alone "exceptionally egregious" but acknowledges that Biden’s preemptive pardons were a bad thing — and says nobody in Congress actually thinks the proposal is a bad idea. The conversation broadens into a sobering assessment of congressional dysfunction and the state of American democracy. Olszewski describes the current Congress as one of the least productive ever, with both parties proposing unpassable messaging bills rather than legislating, and warns that partisan redistricting combined with partisan primaries creates a vicious cycle where the Republicans most willing to compromise are the ones most likely to lose their primaries. On Democratic strategy, Olszewski argues that if impeachable offenses exist they should be pursued but the party must focus on voters' needs, that Hakeem Jeffries should center his speakership on affordability if Democrats retake the House, and that Congress needs to come together to ban bipartisan gerrymandering. He insists that repairing democracy transcends partisan politics — the country needs people to believe in the institution of Congress again, and that requires restraints not just on this president but on all future ones. Finally, Chuck proposes a major change to the NCAA basketball tournament… an expanded, 96 team playoff that would benefit both athletics and academics, celebrates the start of the MLB season, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 3:00 We may have a new deadline for Trump to wrap up the Iran war 3:30 Trump to visit Beijing on May 14th & 15th 4:45 Trump wants to end the war more than the Iranian regime 6:15 Trump voters dri

Maryland Congressman Johnny Olszewski — the author of the Pardon Integrity Act, a proposed constitutional amendment that would give Congress the power to reject presidential pardons with a two-thirds supermajority vote — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a frank conversation about fixing a broken democracy and what Democrats should prioritize if they retake the House. Olszewski argues that the presidential pardon is the biggest loophole between democracy and autocracy, a power straight out of a monarchy that the founders failed to adequately check, and notes that Congress actually tried to curb pardon authority after Nixon but the effort stalled. His amendment, which is structured like a veto override and has already attracted Republican co-sponsor Don Bacon, would allow 20 House members and five senators to initiate a review process with 60 days to nullify a pardon. Olszewski is careful to spread the blame across parties — calling Trump's 1,600 pardons in 2025 alone "exceptionally egregious" but acknowledges that Biden’s preemptive pardons were a bad thing — and says nobody in Congress actually thinks the proposal is a bad idea. The conversation broadens into a sobering assessment of congressional dysfunction and the state of American democracy. Olszewski describes the current Congress as one of the least productive ever, with both parties proposing unpassable messaging bills rather than legislating, and warns that partisan redistricting combined with partisan primaries creates a vicious cycle where the Republicans most willing to compromise are the ones most likely to lose their primaries. On Democratic strategy, Olszewski argues that if impeachable offenses exist they should be pursued but the party must focus on voters' needs, that Hakeem Jeffries should center his speakership on affordability if Democrats retake the House, and that Congress needs to come together to ban bipartisan gerrymandering. He insists that repairing democracy transcends partisan politics — the country needs people to believe in the institution of Congress again, and that requires restraints not just on this president but on all future ones. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Rep. Johnny Olszewski joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:15 Pardon clause is biggest loophole between democracy & autocracy 03:00 Do you have more Republicans on board with the pardon amendment? 03:45 Pardon amendment is structured like a veto override 04:15 Trump’s pardons are exceptionally egregious 04:45 Biden’s preemptive pardons for family members were also terrible 06:30 Pardon power is a loophole right out of a monarchy 07:30 Congress wanted to curb pardon power after Nixon, but it stalled 09:15 We need people to believe in the institution of congress again 10:30 Should a pardon board be created similar to those at the state level? 12:30 What’s the strategy for getting the pardon amendment passed? 13:15 Nobody in congress thinks the proposal is a bad idea 15:30 We haven’t passed a meaningful amendment since JFK assassination 16:15 Repairing the democracy transcends partisan politics 17:30 What should Democrats prioritize if they retake the house majority? 18:15 If impeachable offenses exist, pursue them, but focus on voters’ needs 20:30 The current congress is one of the least productive ever 23:00 Both parties propose unpassable messaging bills 24:45 The minority is rarely treated well by the majority 27:00 Democrats can compromise on policy but not core values 28:00 Depending on the members, there may be space for compromise 28:30 R’s willing to compromise are most likely to lose their primary 29:15 Partisan redistricting + partisan elections leads to bad outcomes 32:30 Seriously concerned about certification of the 2028 election 33:30 Worried that Speaker Johnson will mess with the 2026 result? 36:00 Government has resources to make lives better if not for partisanship 38:30 Congress has passed almost no meaningful legislation 40:45 Congress needs to come together and ban bipartisan gerrymandering 43:00 No appetite in congress for uncapping size of house, talk of rank choice voting 44:15 If Hakeem Jeffries becomes speaker, he needs to focus on affordability 45:15 The numbers aren’t there to advance an impeachment inquiry 47:00 We need restraints on this president and future presidents 47:30 Thoughts on Wes Moore running for president? 48:30 What’s “electability” going to mean in 2028?See omnystudio.com/listener for priva

Chuck Todd opens by announcing the launch of "Dynastic," his new sports history podcast with J.A. Adande, before turning to what may be the most consequential inflection point of the Iran war: Trump is running out of patience and actively searching for an off-ramp, but every path forward carries serious risks and his definition of victory keeps shifting by the day. Chuck warns that the U.S. continues to send more troops for potential escalation even as the military acknowledges it has achieved its strategic objectives but can only do so much — the regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly, meaning the war has now become fundamentally about perception rather than territory. He flags General Mattis's warning that Iran will claim control over the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. retreats, that Gulf states are already hedging their security partnerships and leaning toward China, and that standing with America has become politically toxic in allied countries — a direct consequence of Trump choosing to weaken alliances before launching a war that required them. At home, the picture is equally grim: support for Trump among independents has cratered into the low 20s, the MAGA brand has become more toxic with voters than the generic Republican brand, nobody in Trump's orbit wants to own this war, and Chuck warns that while Trump has always bounced back from political crises, this time may be different — the war could be the death knell for the MAGA movement itself, because Trump hollowed out the expertise around him, surrounded himself with sycophants, and now finds both sides stuck in a conflict where retreat looks like defeat and escalation looks like madness. Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose reelection in 2026, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 00:45 Launching the "Dynastic" sports history podcast with J.A. Adande! 09:00 Trump is running out of patience, looking for off-ramp in Iran 10:15 Trump’s definition of victory keeps changing 11:00 Every path forward in Iran carries risks 11:30 We continue to send more troops for potential escalation 12:45 Iran will have a say over who can travel through the Strait of Hormuz 13:15 Gen. Mattis believes Iran will claim control over Strait if U.S. retreats 16:00 The military has had strategic victory, but can only do so much 16:45 Regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly 18:00 Both sides are stuck, so now the war becomes about perception 18:45 Gulf states could hedge their security partnerships, lean to China 19:30 Trump hollowed out expertise & surrounded himself with sycophants 20:30 Nobody in Trump’s orbit want to own this war 21:30 Standing with the U.S. is politically unpopular in allied countries 23:00 Trump chose to weaken America’s alliance prior to launching war 23:45 War is increasingly unpopular at home 25:00 Support for Trump among independents is in the low 20’s 26:30 The MAGA brand is now more toxic with voters than Republican brand 27:30 War could be the death knell for the MAGA brand 28:45 Trump has always bounced back, but he may not be able to this time 35:30 ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose in 2026 36:45 #1 John Cornyn 38:15 #2 Dan McKee 40:30 #3 Bill Cassidy 43:00 #4 Susan Collins 47:00 #5 Pete Ricketts 48:15 Ask Chuck 48:30 John Hickenlooper is out. Has another state had so many 1-term dropouts? 52:45 Would Hilary Clinton have won the presidency if the nominee in a different year? 56:30 Any pop culture quotes that you love that carry weight politically?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens by announcing the launch of "Dynastic," his new sports history podcast with J.A. Adande, before turning to what may be the most consequential inflection point of the Iran war: Trump is running out of patience and actively searching for an off-ramp, but every path forward carries serious risks and his definition of victory keeps shifting by the day. Chuck warns that the U.S. continues to send more troops for potential escalation even as the military acknowledges it has achieved its strategic objectives but can only do so much — the regime has plenty of loyalists and will not go away quietly, meaning the war has now become fundamentally about perception rather than territory. He flags General Mattis's warning that Iran will claim control over the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. retreats, that Gulf states are already hedging their security partnerships and leaning toward China, and that standing with America has become politically toxic in allied countries — a direct consequence of Trump choosing to weaken alliances before launching a war that required them. At home, the picture is equally grim: support for Trump among independents has cratered into the low 20s, the MAGA brand has become more toxic with voters than the generic Republican brand, nobody in Trump's orbit wants to own this war, and Chuck warns that while Trump has always bounced back from political crises, this time may be different — the war could be the death knell for the MAGA movement itself, because Trump hollowed out the expertise around him, surrounded himself with sycophants, and now finds both sides stuck in a conflict where retreat looks like defeat and escalation looks like madness. Then, Warwick Sabin — president and CEO of Deep South Today, the nonprofit news network that includes the Pulitzer Prize-winning Mississippi Today, New Orleans' Verite News, and Lafayette's The Current — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss what may be the most promising model for saving local journalism in America. Sabin, a former three-term Arkansas state legislator and publisher of the Oxford American magazine, explains how he's building a network of nonprofit newsrooms across the Deep South from scratch, starting with Mississippi Today — the first nonprofit newsroom in Mississippi, now the largest in the state — and expanding into Louisiana and soon Arkansas. He describes the wholesale implosion of the old newspaper model, using the Jackson Clarion-Ledger's decline as a case study, and argues that the nonprofit approach has a critical advantage: starting fresh means avoiding the crushing legacy costs that buried traditional papers, and all revenue gets reinvested directly into the news product. They make the case that service journalism — covering schools, local government, youth sports — is what creates the trust and audience that makes the "sexy" investigative work possible, pointing to the fact that local journalists in his network helped exonerate a man on death row in Mississippi. The conversation turns to what makes local journalism viable and essential in 2026 and beyond. Sabin argues that human connection to journalists will be the defining differentiator in the age of AI — people won't trust reporters who aren't part of their local community — while acknowledging that AI tools can make reporting dramatically more efficient. He discusses using local and youth sports as a community bonding agent in an era where it's one of the few areas where communities can avoid politics, notes that Mississippi produces terrific writers who need platforms, and emphasizes that having video and audio components is now critical for any news operation. They explore the potential for rebuilding a national network of nonprofit newspapers, discuss which communities are ripe for expansion and make the case that local journalism should be treated as a civic institution deserving of public-private partnership. Sabin's model is free to access, civic-minded, and designed to help citizens survive and thrive in their communities — exactly what Local News Day on April 9th is designed to champion. Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 statewide incumbents most likely to lose reelection in 2026, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 00:45 Launching the "Dynastic" sports history podcast with J.A. Adande! 09:00 Trump is running out of patience, lo

Warwick Sabin — president and CEO of Deep South Today, the nonprofit news network that includes the Pulitzer Prize-winning Mississippi Today, New Orleans' Verite News, and Lafayette's The Current — joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss what may be the most promising model for saving local journalism in America. Sabin, a former three-term Arkansas state legislator and publisher of the Oxford American magazine, explains how he's building a network of nonprofit newsrooms across the Deep South from scratch, starting with Mississippi Today — the first nonprofit newsroom in Mississippi, now the largest in the state — and expanding into Louisiana and soon Arkansas. He describes the wholesale implosion of the old newspaper model, using the Jackson Clarion-Ledger's decline as a case study, and argues that the nonprofit approach has a critical advantage: starting fresh means avoiding the crushing legacy costs that buried traditional papers, and all revenue gets reinvested directly into the news product. They make the case that service journalism — covering schools, local government, youth sports — is what creates the trust and audience that makes the "sexy" investigative work possible, pointing to the fact that local journalists in his network helped exonerate a man on death row in Mississippi. The conversation turns to what makes local journalism viable and essential in 2026 and beyond. Sabin argues that human connection to journalists will be the defining differentiator in the age of AI — people won't trust reporters who aren't part of their local community — while acknowledging that AI tools can make reporting dramatically more efficient. He discusses using local and youth sports as a community bonding agent in an era where it's one of the few areas where communities can avoid politics, notes that Mississippi produces terrific writers who need platforms, and emphasizes that having video and audio components is now critical for any news operation. They explore the potential for rebuilding a national network of nonprofit newspapers, discuss which communities are ripe for expansion and make the case that local journalism should be treated as a civic institution deserving of public-private partnership. Sabin's model is free to access, civic-minded, and designed to help citizens survive and thrive in their communities — exactly what Local News Day on April 9th is designed to champion. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Warwick Sabin joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:30 Creating the first nonprofit newsroom in Mississippi 04:30 What went wrong with the Jackson Clarion-Ledger? 06:30 There’s been a wholesale implosion of the old newspaper model 08:00 Potential for rebuilding a national network of newspapers? 09:15 In small markets, newspapers have to be hyper efficient 11:15 Service journalism is what creates the opportunity for “sexy” journalism 12:15 Local journalists exonerated a man on death row in Mississippi 13:15 Using local and youth sports as a community bond 15:00 Local sports is the one area where communities can avoid politics 16:30 Mississippi produces terrific writers 17:30 Having a video/audio component for reporting is critical 19:00 Human connection to journalists will be important in age of AI 21:00 People won’t trust journalists that aren’t part of their local community 22:45 AI tools can make reporting easier and more efficient 24:15 What does a community need to have to become part of your network? 25:30 Arkansas Democrat Gazette weathered the storm better than most 27:30 Arkansas is in need of a local news network  28:45 Bill Clinton’s election kept Walmart’s headquarters in Arkansas 31:00 Northwest Arkansas produced some of America’s biggest companies 34:00 How much do you factor in local resources when launching a new paper? 36:00 What other places have you looked at to expand the network? 38:00 Model is doing civic minded journalism that is free to access 39:00 Starting from scratch, avoiding legacy costs is a huge boon 41:30 All the revenue they generate gets invested back into the news product 43:00 Newspapers & local journalism are a civic institution 45:00 Local journalism should be a public/private partnership 46:00 It is incredibly difficult to deliver straight news in smaller communities 46:45 What do you hope to get out of Local News Day? 49:30 Local journalism can help citizens survive and thrive in their communities 50:30 Is print dead, or is t

On the premiere episode of "Dynastic," Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande tell the full history of the Los Angeles Dodgers, from their Brooklyn beginnings, to Jackie Robinson breaking the MLB color barrier, to Kirk Gibson’s World Series heroics, and the Shohei Ohtani era. They examine all the front-office decisions and key turning points that turned the Dodgers into a baseball dynasty. Please FOLLOW for upcoming episodes. Follow the show on our social accounts: https://www.twitter.com/dynasticpod/ https://www.instagram.com/dynasticpod/ https://www.facebook.com/DynasticPod https://www.tiktok.com/@dynastic.pod  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the two stories dominating the weekend: the Iran war's cascading economic consequences and Trump's vile celebration of Robert Mueller's death. On Iran, Chuck warns that rising energy costs with oil above $100 a barrel are not politically neutral — they function as a tax on existence that directly breaches the contract Trump's own voters signed up for — and that Trump is visibly panicking about gas prices because they disproportionately hurt his base. He argues that killing the Ayatollah was never going to topple the regime because the Iranian leadership doesn't operate as rational actors who can be deterred by suffering, that Trump made the same catastrophic miscalculation Putin made in Ukraine by assuming it would be easy, and that nobody in Trump's orbit will deliver bad news because there is now a North Korea-level sycophancy around the president. He then turns to Trump's Truth Social post celebrating the death of Mueller — a Bronze Star combat veteran, 12-year FBI director, and lifelong public servant who died at 81 from Parkinson's disease — in which Trump wrote "Good, I'm glad he's dead." Chuck notes that even Fox News' Brit Hume tweeted that this is why people don't merely oppose Trump but actively hate him. He argues that character matters in politics more than any policy position, and that Trump is fundamentally incapable of showing grace or knowing when to shut up He revisits the Mueller investigation itself, arguing that the real failure wasn't the probe's legal conclusions — which confirmed Russia took action to help elect Trump and that the campaign expected to benefit from stolen information — but that there were no consequences, and that Trump's refusal to acknowledge Russian help was never about innocence but about protecting the legitimacy of his presidency, with the entire GOP going along because copping to it would have been politically fatal. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the nuclear meltdown incident at Three Mile Island and argues that it derailed a massive transition to nuclear energy that could have led to energy independence and potentially avoided multiple wars in the middle east. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:15 Launching a new sports history podcast on Tuesday! 08:30 Noosphere interview with Joseph Allbriton 09:45 Providing local news services to the Washington D.C. area 11:30 Bezos didn’t live in DC, didn’t understand WaPo’s mission  12:45 The war in Iran is impacting everything. Everything else is downstream 13:15 Rising energy costs are not politically neutral, a tax on existing 14:15 Rising costs is a breach of the contract Trump voters signed up for 15:45 Iranian regime isn’t going to fight as rational actors, suffering doesn’t deter them 17:00 Killing the Ayatollah was never going to topple the regime 17:45 Nobody will give Trump bad news, he only hears what he wants to hear 19:00 There is a North Korea level of sycophancy around Trump 20:00 Trump made same mistake Putin made in Ukraine… thought it’d be easy 21:15 Trump alienated America’s allies, they want no part of his war 22:00 America is isolated and alone, but really need help from allies 23:45 Trump is finding out the hard way why other presidents didn’t hit Iran 25:15 Trump vacillates on his positions & messaging from day to day 26:15 Trump is panicking about gas prices, affects his voters the most 28:00 Trump celebrates Robert Mueller’s death in Truth Social post 29:45 The levels Trump will stoop to are truly sad 30:30 Brit Hume tweets “This is why people don’t just oppose Trump, they hate him” 31:15 Trump is incapable of ever showing grace or knowing when to shut up 32:15 Character matters in politics more than a policy position 33:15 Failure of Mueller investigation was no consequences for Russian meddling 34:30 Mueller report confirmed that Russia took action to help elect Trump 35:15 Wikileaks releases were very well curated & required American knowledge 37:30 Collusion wasn’t the crime, it was that Trump put himself above the country 39:15 Copping to Russian help would have delegitimized Trump, so GOP went along 40:30 People in Trump’s orbit were fine with Russian meddling since it helped them 41:30 Bob Mueller lived a life of public service, did not deserv

Chuck Todd opens with the two stories dominating the weekend: the Iran war's cascading economic consequences and Trump's vile celebration of Robert Mueller's death. On Iran, Chuck warns that rising energy costs with oil above $100 a barrel are not politically neutral — they function as a tax on existence that directly breaches the contract Trump's own voters signed up for — and that Trump is visibly panicking about gas prices because they disproportionately hurt his base. He argues that killing the Ayatollah was never going to topple the regime because the Iranian leadership doesn't operate as rational actors who can be deterred by suffering, that Trump made the same catastrophic miscalculation Putin made in Ukraine by assuming it would be easy, and that nobody in Trump's orbit will deliver bad news because there is now a North Korea-level sycophancy around the president. He then turns to Trump's Truth Social post celebrating the death of Mueller — a Bronze Star combat veteran, 12-year FBI director, and lifelong public servant who died at 81 from Parkinson's disease — in which Trump wrote "Good, I'm glad he's dead." Chuck notes that even Fox News' Brit Hume tweeted that this is why people don't merely oppose Trump but actively hate him. He argues that character matters in politics more than any policy position, and that Trump is fundamentally incapable of showing grace or knowing when to shut up He revisits the Mueller investigation itself, arguing that the real failure wasn't the probe's legal conclusions — which confirmed Russia took action to help elect Trump and that the campaign expected to benefit from stolen information — but that there were no consequences, and that Trump's refusal to acknowledge Russian help was never about innocence but about protecting the legitimacy of his presidency, with the entire GOP going along because copping to it would have been politically fatal. Suzanne Kianpour — the Emmy-nominated journalist, Semafor columnist, and Iran specialist who joins the Chuck Toddcast for an extraordinarily personal and deeply informed conversation about what's actually happening inside Iran as the war enters its third week. Kianpour paints a picture of a country where people are terrified and staying home, where Persian New Year will not be a celebration, and where the fabric of the regime is visibly falling apart — yet there was no pre-war effort by the U.S. to organize a viable opposition, meaning the question of who replaces the regime remains dangerously unanswered. She examines whether President Pezeshkian could serve as a transitional figure, notes that the former foreign minister has gone conspicuously quiet, discusses the role of Reza Pahlavi and the women's movement, and reveals that sources inside Iran believe the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, may already be dead. Kianpour delivers the stark bottom line: the regime wins simply by staying intact, and without boots on the ground or a coordinated opposition, air and naval power alone cannot finish the job. The conversation broadens into a candid assessment of the geopolitical landscape that complicates any clean resolution. Kianpour argues that the U.S. lost the moral high ground when Trump ripped up the Obama nuclear deal a deal she defends as strategically sound even if imperfect — and that Western media has become so reflexively anti-Trump that some outlets almost want the war to fail, which is inadvertently helping the Iranian regime win the information war. She notes that Gulf states were supportive when they thought the strikes would work quickly but are now distancing themselves, that China — which brokered the Iran-Saudi détente — may end up playing the key diplomatic role. Kianpour offers a striking vision of what could emerge from the ashes: a future Iran and Israel could be close allies and co-leaders of a thriving Middle East, tut she cautions that geopolitical forgiveness must be part of any post-regime transition. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the nuclear meltdown incident at Three Mile Island and argues that it derailed a massive transition to nuclear energy that could have led to energy independence and potentially avoided multiple wars in the middle east. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:15 Launching a new sports history podcast on Tuesday! 08:30

Suzanne Kianpour — the Emmy-nominated journalist, Semafor columnist, and Iran specialist who joins the Chuck Toddcast for an extraordinarily personal and deeply informed conversation about what's actually happening inside Iran as the war enters its third week. Kianpour paints a picture of a country where people are terrified and staying home, where Persian New Year will not be a celebration, and where the fabric of the regime is visibly falling apart — yet there was no pre-war effort by the U.S. to organize a viable opposition, meaning the question of who replaces the regime remains dangerously unanswered. She examines whether President Pezeshkian could serve as a transitional figure, notes that the former foreign minister has gone conspicuously quiet, discusses the role of Reza Pahlavi and the women's movement, and reveals that sources inside Iran believe the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, may already be dead. Kianpour delivers the stark bottom line: the regime wins simply by staying intact, and without boots on the ground or a coordinated opposition, air and naval power alone cannot finish the job. The conversation broadens into a candid assessment of the geopolitical landscape that complicates any clean resolution. Kianpour argues that the U.S. lost the moral high ground when Trump ripped up the Obama nuclear deal a deal she defends as strategically sound even if imperfect — and that Western media has become so reflexively anti-Trump that some outlets almost want the war to fail, which is inadvertently helping the Iranian regime win the information war. She notes that Gulf states were supportive when they thought the strikes would work quickly but are now distancing themselves, that China — which brokered the Iran-Saudi détente — may end up playing the key diplomatic role. Kianpour offers a striking vision of what could emerge from the ashes: a future Iran and Israel could be close allies and co-leaders of a thriving Middle East, tut she cautions that geopolitical forgiveness must be part of any post-regime transition. Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Suzanne Kianpour joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:45 What Sparked the Protests in Iran 03:30  Suzanne's background in Iran, how she became a conflict journalist 07:30 Reporting on the Iran nuclear deal 09:30 Could the Regime Have Fallen on Its Own?  12:00 People in Iran are afraid and are staying at home 14:00 Persian New Year will not be a celebration this year. 16:30 Can the Regime Survive? What Would Change It?  18:30 There was no pre-war effort to organize opposition.  21:30 Pahlavi and the Women's Movement  24:30 President Pazeshkian as a potential transitional figure 27:15 Former foreign minister has gone quiet.  29:00 Regime wins if it stays intact 30:30 Was the Obama Deal naive or strategic?  32:00 U.S. lost moral high ground after Trump ripped up the deal 34:00 Western and European media is so anti-Trump that they almost want him to fail  36:30 The Iranian regime is winning the information war.  39:30 Joe Kent's resignation is being framed as a "wartime defection"  41:15 Air and naval power alone can't guarantee safe passage in Strait of Hormuz 42:45 Gulf states were supportive when they thought it would work,  now they're distancing  45:15 China's Role China brokered the Iran-Saudi détente and may play a diplomatic role  47:30 Social media broke the regime’s control over the Iranian public 50:00 The fabric of the regime is now visibly falling apart. 52:15 Israel wanted to permanently eliminate Iran's proxy war capability post-October 7. 54:30 A future Iran and Israel could be close allies and co-leaders of a thriving Middle East 57:15 Geopolitical forgiveness has to be part of any post-regime transition 59:45 Conflict will back into intelligence and covert operations after the kinetic phase.  1:01:00 Sources inside Iran believe the new Supreme Leader may already be dead y. 1:04:30 Where to find Suzanne’s workSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd digs into the wreckage of the Illinois primary — where more than $50 million in outside money from crypto, AI, and AIPAC-linked groups flooded Democratic races — and asks what it means for the future of American democracy when PACs and outside groups are far outspending the actual campaigns they're trying to influence. He credits Stratton for being able to overcome the massive crypto onslaught — a rare and significant defeat for an industry that has been buying influence across both parties — but warns that her victory required a billionaire governor's financial backing to counteract billionaire-funded opposition, which only underscores the problem. He traces the rot back to McCain-Feingold, arguing that the landmark campaign finance law inadvertently weakened the parties by decentralizing money, which in turn decentralized accountability — and that the Supreme Court's subsequent decisions let the situation spiral completely out of control. He calls out Chuck Schumer directly for caving to crypto money and pressuring his caucus to go along, notes that campaign finance reform feels like an unwinnable issue because the people who benefit from the current system are the ones who'd have to change it, He closes with a broader observation: with money deciding which candidates are viable before voters even weigh in, and with the country having produced three consecutive one-term presidents, American politics is likely to remain deeply unstable for years to come. Former Oklahoma Congressman and now president of Americans for Responsible Innovation Brad Carson joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about why AI may be the most consequential policy issue nobody in Washington is seriously addressing. They discuss why  Americans are uniquely pessimistic about AI compared to the rest of the world, and for good reason: huge AI money is pouring into races like the Illinois Senate primary where outside groups and PACs are far outspending actual campaigns, Elon Musk's Grok chatbot adopted a "MechaHitler" persona and is now integrated at the Pentagon, we have virtually no visibility into what's happening inside AI labs or how these systems are being deployed, and the same technology that could deliver incredible medical breakthroughs could also be used to develop bioweapons. Carson argues that immunizing tech companies with Section 230 was a massive mistake — the law passed before anyone understood how the technology would evolve — and that recommendation algorithms effectively make platforms publishers, meaning the Supreme Court has fundamentally misinterpreted the First Amendment when it comes to tech regulation.  He makes the case that state-level regulation may be the more immediate solution given congressional dysfunction and warns that surveillance pricing — where companies like the Washington Post reportedly examined subscribers' credit reports when setting prices — seems blatantly unconstitutional. They contend that consumer protection for AI would be a winning political message for either party, that the electrical grid alone will need a trillion dollars in investment to support AI's energy demands, and that letting the private sector roll out this technology without guardrails is an enormous risk.  Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00: Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:15: AI & Pac money dominates the Illinois Primary 05:30: Campaign finance reform feels like an “unwinnable issue” 08:30 McCain-Feingold weakened the parties  11:00 Chuck Schumer caves to huge crypto money 12:30 Illinois primary became Ground Zero for Donor-Centered Politics  15:15 Juliana Stratton was able to overcome massive crypto donors. 16:45: Decentralizing money decentralized accountability 18:15 Money decides which candidates are viable 21:45 Should Democrats find their own billionaire? 26:30 U.S. politics likely to remain unstable, with multiple 1 term presidents 36:00 Rep. Brad Carson joins the Chuck ToddCast 38:30 Americans are uniquely pessimistic about AI 39:30 What is Americans for Responsible Innovation & who funds it? 41:15 Anthropic believes that AI needs reasonable guardrails 41:45 Huge AI money pouring into Illinois primary races 42:45 Outside groups & PACs are far outspending actual campaigns 44:15 Money is destroying democracy, SCOTUS

Chuck Todd digs into the wreckage of the Illinois primary — where more than $50 million in outside money from crypto, AI, and AIPAC-linked groups flooded Democratic races — and asks what it means for the future of American democracy when PACs and outside groups are far outspending the actual campaigns they're trying to influence. He credits Stratton for being able to overcome the massive crypto onslaught — a rare and significant defeat for an industry that has been buying influence across both parties — but warns that her victory required a billionaire governor's financial backing to counteract billionaire-funded opposition, which only underscores the problem. He traces the rot back to McCain-Feingold, arguing that the landmark campaign finance law inadvertently weakened the parties by decentralizing money, which in turn decentralized accountability — and that the Supreme Court's subsequent decisions let the situation spiral completely out of control. He calls out Chuck Schumer directly for caving to crypto money and pressuring his caucus to go along, notes that campaign finance reform feels like an unwinnable issue because the people who benefit from the current system are the ones who'd have to change it, He closes with a broader observation: with money deciding which candidates are viable before voters even weigh in, and with the country having produced three consecutive one-term presidents, American politics is likely to remain deeply unstable for years to come. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00: Chuck Todd’s introduction 02:15: AI & Pac money dominates the Illinois Primary 05:30: Campaign finance reform feels like an “unwinnable issue” 08:30 McCain-Feingold weakened the parties  11:00 Chuck Schumer caves to huge crypto money 12:30 Illinois primary became Ground Zero for Donor-Centered Politics  15:15 Juliana Stratton was able to overcome massive crypto donors. 16:45: Decentralizing money decentralized accountability 18:15 Money decides which candidates are viable 21:45 Should Democrats find their own billionaire? 26:30 U.S. politics likely to remain unstable, with multiple 1 term presidents 33:00 Ask Chuck 33:15 Would National Press Club membership be good for young journalists? 37:15 When did America actually become a country? 40:30 Is it worth contacting reps who already agree with you? 44:30 Thoughts on Mississippi as a potential Democratic opportunity? 48:45 Viability of the National Popular Vote Compact? 55:30 Will congress ever address daylight savings time? 58:45 NCAA tournament picksSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Oklahoma Congressman and now president of Americans for Responsible Innovation Brad Carson joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about why AI may be the most consequential policy issue nobody in Washington is seriously addressing. They discuss why  Americans are uniquely pessimistic about AI compared to the rest of the world, and for good reason: huge AI money is pouring into races like the Illinois Senate primary where outside groups and PACs are far outspending actual campaigns, Elon Musk's Grok chatbot adopted a "MechaHitler" persona and is now integrated at the Pentagon, we have virtually no visibility into what's happening inside AI labs or how these systems are being deployed, and the same technology that could deliver incredible medical breakthroughs could also be used to develop bioweapons. Carson argues that immunizing tech companies with Section 230 was a massive mistake — the law passed before anyone understood how the technology would evolve — and that recommendation algorithms effectively make platforms publishers, meaning the Supreme Court has fundamentally misinterpreted the First Amendment when it comes to tech regulation.    He makes the case that state-level regulation may be the more immediate solution given congressional dysfunction and warns that surveillance pricing — where companies like the Washington Post reportedly examined subscribers' credit reports when setting prices — seems blatantly unconstitutional. They contend that consumer protection for AI would be a winning political message for either party, that the electrical grid alone will need a trillion dollars in investment to support AI's energy demands, and that letting the private sector roll out this technology without guardrails is an enormous risk.    Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Rep. Brad Carson joins the Chuck ToddCast 02:30 Americans are uniquely pessimistic about AI 03:30 What is Americans for Responsible Innovation & who funds it? 05:15 Anthropic believes that AI needs reasonable guardrails 05:45 Huge AI money pouring into Illinois primary races 06:45 Outside groups & PACs are far outspending actual campaigns 08:15 Money is destroying democracy, SCOTUS let it get out of hand 09:45 Immunizing tech companies with Section 230 was a huge mistake 11:00 Courts need to develop common law for regulating tech 12:15 Recommendation algorithms make tech platforms a publisher 13:15 SCOTUS misinterpreted 1st amendment when regulating tech 14:15 Sec. 230 passed before knowing how the tech would evolve 15:30 State level regulation may be the more immediate solution 16:30 How do you determine which candidates to support? 18:00 The tech isn’t unpopular, it’s how it has interacted with U.S. politics 19:00 We know social media is bad for us, but can’t quit it 20:15 Congressional leadership has stood in the way of regulation 21:30 What’s a safer way to roll out AI regulation in a broken political system? 22:45 There are certain safeguards that must be built into AI models 23:30 Grok took on a “MechaHitler” persona & is integrated at the Pentagon 25:15 Letting the private sector roll out AI without regulation is a huge risk 26:00 We have no visibility into AI labs or how it’s being deployed 27:30 AI can be used for incredible medical advances… or bioweapons 29:30 Ron DeSantis is proposing an “AI Bill of Rights” in Florida 30:15 Surveillance pricing seems incredibly unconstitutional and illegal 31:00 Washington Post looked at subscribers’ credit reports when pricing 32:30 People deserve to know if AI is evaluating them when applying for jobs 34:00 We haven’t had enough debate around the AI issue 34:45 Who can be a trusted voice to lead the debate? 36:15 Consumer protection for AI would be a winning political message 38:30 Fear of AI job displacement & rising electricity prices at the forefront 39:45 The electrical grid will need a trillion dollars invested into it 41:15 The difference between Oklahoma Democrats & national ones? 43:45 The tribes have become the check on Republicans in Oklahoma 45:45 Ossoff & Buttigieg are two potential ‘28 Dems that stand out 46:45 Dems need to attack Trump for lying to base, rather than attack his voters 48:00 How did you like being the president of Tulsa University?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Amy Littlefield — investigative reporter for The Nation and author of the new book Killers of Roe: My Investigation into the Mysterious Death of Abortion Rights — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a fascinating deep dive into the decades-long campaign that dismantled abortion rights in America, framed through the lens of an Agatha Christie-style murder mystery where the killers turn out to be the people you least suspect. Littlefield reveals that the death of Roe was not a single blow but death by a thousand stab wounds from multiple suspects: a Catholic hospital system that now controls one in six beds in America with reproductive care restrictions, an evangelical movement that amassed enormous political power in the Reagan era, a Democratic Party that was deeply complicit — the Hyde Amendment passed through a Democratic-majority Congress and real women died as a result — and operatives like Leonard Leo, who hand-delivered Trump a list of Supreme Court justices guaranteed to overturn Roe. Littlefield argues that anti-abortion activists brilliantly copied the playbook of the civil rights movement, that fighting against something is inherently more galvanizing than defending something, and that reproductive rights groups like Planned Parenthood and NARAL were constantly outflanked by a more organized, more disciplined opposition that understood single-issue voters could be leveraged for outsized political power. The conversation turns to the future of reproductive rights in a post-Dobbs America — and the picture is more complicated than either side admits. Littlefield points out that the number of abortions has actually increased since the Dobbs decision, that anti-abortion ballot initiatives consistently lose even in conservative areas, and that there's 80% public support that could be leveraged if the movement reframed its message around freedom rather than choice and connected reproductive rights to economic concerns. But she warns that anti-abortion activists aren't done: they want birth control and IVF outlawed next, and anti-women political movements are gaining momentum globally.  Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Amy Littlefield joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:30 Why did you choose the murder mystery framing for this book? 02:45 1 in 6 beds is in a Catholic hospital that have reproductive care restrictions 04:15 Agatha Christie’s style was an inspiration for the book 07:15 We know the political side of the story, wanted to tell the activist story 08:45 Getting the Roe decision required a strong grassroots movement 09:15 The Catholic church has a strong organizational operation 10:30 Reproductive rights wasn’t a left vs. right issue in the 70s and 80s 12:45 Democrats have been complicit in the erosion of reproductive rights 13:45 The Hyde amendment got through a Democratic majority congress 14:45 Evangelicals amassed huge political power in the Reagan era 15:30 Reagan flipped his position on abortion during his presidency 17:15 Abortion and guns are the two single-issue voting issues 18:00 Republicans extracted huge power out of single issue voters 19:15 People are willing to compromise other values for anti-abortion position 20:00 Anti-abortion activists know they don’t have majority support 21:30 Was “choice” the worst word they could pick? Why not frame it as freedom? 24:15 Examining the first deaths after the passage of Hyde amendment 25:00 Why didn’t deaths due to the Hyde amendment galvanize voters? 27:30 Justices didn’t want 5-4 on Roe so they came up with convoluted argument 28:30 A flawed legal rationale isn’t why Roe fell 30:00 The abortion rights fight has always been in the states 31:45 The debate has been over codifying Roe or codifying a right 33:45 Repealing the Hyde amendment was biggest win in years for abortion rights 35:30 Planned Parenthood has had an oversized role in defending abortion rights 36:15 Would there be a Federalist Society without Roe? 37:00 Leonard Leo handed Trump the names of justices that would overturn Roe 38:15 Anti-abortion activists copied the playbook of the civil rights movement 39:45 Is there anybody on the pro-abortion rights side that deserves blame for Dobbs? 41:00 Reproductive rights groups like PP and NARAL were constantly outflanked 42:00 Fighting against something is more galvanizing than defending something 43:30 Anti-abortion ballot initiatives consistently lose, even in conservative ar

Chuck Todd opens with the bluntest assessment yet of the Iran war as it enters its third week: America's position as leader of the free world is unraveling in real time, the risk of mission creep is enormous, and we are now seeing exactly why every previous president chose not to attack Iran. Trump is ranting and begging allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. He notes that Trump is even angling for a joint operation with China to police the strait — a surreal proposition given the broader geopolitical rivalry — and that Trump is learning the hard way why you don't alienate allies before starting a war that requires their help. The Director of Counterterrorism has resigned over the conflict, DNI Tulsi Gabbard is performing rhetorical contortions to signal she doesn't believe in the war while keeping her job, and the administration has entered what Chuck calls the "cover your ass" stage. He argues that Trump's coalition has been fracturing for six months, that America is demonstrably less secure today than before the strikes began, and that this war — which has confirmed to the world that America is truly alone — could ultimately prove more damaging than Vietnam or Iraq. He closes by noting softening poll numbers for Republicans like Lindsey Graham and Vivek Ramaswamy, and that Maine Governor Janet Mills has gone sharply negative against progressive challenger Graham Platner in their Senate primary — a sign that the vetting process is heating up in ways that will ultimately be healthy for the party. Then, Amy Littlefield — investigative reporter for The Nation and author of the new book Killers of Roe: My Investigation into the Mysterious Death of Abortion Rights — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a fascinating deep dive into the decades-long campaign that dismantled abortion rights in America, framed through the lens of an Agatha Christie-style murder mystery where the killers turn out to be the people you least suspect. Littlefield reveals that the death of Roe was not a single blow but death by a thousand stab wounds from multiple suspects: a Catholic hospital system that now controls one in six beds in America with reproductive care restrictions, an evangelical movement that amassed enormous political power in the Reagan era, a Democratic Party that was deeply complicit — the Hyde Amendment passed through a Democratic-majority Congress and real women died as a result — and operatives like Leonard Leo, who hand-delivered Trump a list of Supreme Court justices guaranteed to overturn Roe. Littlefield argues that anti-abortion activists brilliantly copied the playbook of the civil rights movement, that fighting against something is inherently more galvanizing than defending something, and that reproductive rights groups like Planned Parenthood and NARAL were constantly outflanked by a more organized, more disciplined opposition that understood single-issue voters could be leveraged for outsized political power. The conversation turns to the future of reproductive rights in a post-Dobbs America — and the picture is more complicated than either side admits. Littlefield points out that the number of abortions has actually increased since the Dobbs decision, that anti-abortion ballot initiatives consistently lose even in conservative areas, and that there's 80% public support that could be leveraged if the movement reframed its message around freedom rather than choice and connected reproductive rights to economic concerns. But she warns that anti-abortion activists aren't done: they want birth control and IVF outlawed next, and anti-women political movements are gaining momentum globally.  Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 statewide campaigns from the state of Illinois and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 05:00 Iran war keeps getting worse for Trump, risk of mission creep is high 05:15 America’s place as “Leader of the Free World” is unraveling  06:00 The military part is going well, the diplomatic part is a disaster 06:45 We’re seeing the reasons previous presidents didn’t attack Iran 07:30 Director of Counterterrorism resigns over the war 09:00 Trump is either not getting the truth or being told what he wants to hear 10:00 Gabbard argues Trump has mandate despite not getting 50% of the vote 11:00 Gabbard says only T

Chuck Todd opens with the bluntest assessment yet of the Iran war as it enters its third week: America's position as leader of the free world is unraveling in real time, the risk of mission creep is enormous, and we are now seeing exactly why every previous president chose not to attack Iran. Trump is ranting and begging allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. He notes that Trump is even angling for a joint operation with China to police the strait — a surreal proposition given the broader geopolitical rivalry — and that Trump is learning the hard way why you don't alienate allies before starting a war that requires their help. The Director of Counterterrorism has resigned over the conflict, DNI Tulsi Gabbard is performing rhetorical contortions to signal she doesn't believe in the war while keeping her job, and the administration has entered what Chuck calls the "cover your ass" stage. He argues that Trump's coalition has been fracturing for six months, that America is demonstrably less secure today than before the strikes began, and that this war — which has confirmed to the world that America is truly alone — could ultimately prove more damaging than Vietnam or Iraq. He closes by noting softening poll numbers for Republicans like Lindsey Graham and Vivek Ramaswamy, and that Maine Governor Janet Mills has gone sharply negative against progressive challenger Graham Platner in their Senate primary — a sign that the vetting process is heating up in ways that will ultimately be healthy for the party. Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 statewide campaigns from the state of Illinois and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code CHUCKTODDCAST at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/chucktoddcast  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 05:00 Iran war keeps getting worse for Trump, risk of mission creep is high 05:15 America’s place as “Leader of the Free World” is unraveling  06:00 The military part is going well, the diplomatic part is a disaster 06:45 We’re seeing the reasons previous presidents didn’t attack Iran 07:30 Director of Counterterrorism resigns over the war 09:00 Trump is either not getting the truth or being told what he wants to hear 10:00 Gabbard argues Trump has mandate despite not getting 50% of the vote 11:00 Gabbard says only Trump can determine what is an "imminent threat” 11:45 Gabbard wants she signal she doesn’t believe in war, but keep her job 12:45 We’re in the “cover your ass” stage of the war 15:30 Many MAGA true believers like Joe Kent & MTG wanted no more wars 18:00 If you can’t serve the president, resigning is the right thing to do 18:45 We’re less secure today than before the war started 19:30 Trump’s coalition has been fracturing for six months 21:30 Trump’s ranting and begging for help with the Strait of Hormuz 23:00 Strait of Hormuz has always been the Iranian regime’s leverage 24:00 Securing the strait requires boots on the ground 24:45 Trump is learning the hard way why you don’t alienate allies 26:30 If the regime stays in place, it’ll look like Trump retreated 27:30 This war has been confirmation that America is alone 29:15 This war could be more damaging that Vietnam or Iraq 2 30:00 We need real diplomacy and there hasn’t been any of it 30:45 Trump angling for joint operation with China which is… weird 31:15 Trump wants a way out, but boxed himself in 32:30 We’re starting to see softening support for other elected Republicans 33:15 Polls show Lindsey Graham & Vivek Ramaswamy’s support way down 34:30 Janet Mills decides to go sharply negative against Graham Platner 36:45 The vetting in the primary will be healthy for the Democrats 41:15 Abortion may take a backseat to economy, but could affect midterms 43:00 ToddCast Top 5 statewide races in Illinois 44:00 Illinois has produced 2 presidents and sent 4 governors to prison 45:45 #1 Obama’s 2004 senate campaign 51:15 #2 1992 senate campaign 54:15 1960 presidential Kennedy v Nixon 57:15 1984 Simon vs. Percy 59:45 1986 Democratic primary chaos 1:03:15 Honorable mentions 1:05:15 Ask Chuck 1:05:30 Are we normalizing the denigration of female journalists by Trump? 1:09:45 Why do politics feel so much harder now, and we can’t find agreement? 1:11:45 How much did gutting State Dept. lead to evacuation debacle in middle east? 1:15:30 Did Spanberger tee up a wave in the ne

Faiz Shakir — Bernie Sanders' 2020 campaign manager, former DNC chair candidate, and executive director of the progressive media organization More Perfect Union — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a bracingly honest conversation about what's wrong with the Democratic Party and what it would take to fix it. Shakir diagnoses a party that is functionally leaderless, with its top figures stuck in a "play dead" mentality while the Democratic brand polls worse than the Republican brand even as Trump's corruption grows more brazen by the day. He argues that Trump — like Biden before him — is finger-wagging at voters on the economy rather than addressing affordability, and that Democrats are blowing the opportunity to capitalize because they're terrible at picking fights and allergic to friction. Shakir is particularly scathing on the party's relationship with big tech and corporate power: He holds up Bernie Sanders' AI data center moratorium as the kind of fight Democrats should be waging, and Lina Khan's FTC tenure as the model of mission-driven disruption. The conversation then turns to the future of the party and how to build a lasting majority. Shakir argues that the right candidate could move 7% of the electorate from right to left, that if Sanders were younger he'd likely win in 2028, and that Sanders has more credibility than AOC because he represents a rural state — though he praises both AOC's national appeal and Ro Khanna's political intelligence. He insists Democrats need to fight a class-based economic justice campaign, stop punishing candidates who aren't perfectly aligned on social issues, and recognize that "independent" doesn't mean centrist — younger voters are disillusioned with both parties and hungry for a working-class-first agenda. Shakir offers a detailed vision for DNC reform: fund state parties based on merit and metrics, move Nevada to first on the primary calendar because Vegas politics would orient the party toward working-class concerns, add Michigan and North Carolina to the early window,and invest in sun belt opportunities He closes by noting that James Talarico channeled Bernie's message with a religious-based framing, and that Democratic voters always gravitate toward outsiders — the party just needs to let them run.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Faiz Shakir joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:45 Democratic party seems leaderless 02:15 Would you run again for DNC chair? 03:45 Leaders of the party have a bit of a “play dead” mentality 04:30 Democratic brand is still in worse shape than Republican brand 05:45 Trump having billionaires at inauguration was foreshadowing 06:15 Trump’s corruption is incredibly brazen 07:15 It’s obvious Trump doesn’t care about affordability 08:15 Trump, like Biden, is finger wagging at voters on the economy 09:30 Vance sold himself as an anti-interventionalist populist  10:15 Vance has had to completely go against his political identity 11:00 Trump’s corruption has totally undermined Vance 12:30 Trump’s argument of "imminent threat” from Iran is nonsense 14:00 Chuck Schumer told his caucus to “suck it up” on crypto  15:30 The public is far ahead of politicians in being skeptical of AI 16:15 Very little is being offered by AI that would improve lives of working class 17:00 Every candidate in Illinois senate race basically has a big tech sponsor 18:15 Democratic party is terrible at picking fights and don’t like friction 19:00 Bernie Sanders AI data center moratorium reflects the public sentiment 19:45 Democrats are so heady on policy they let their politics suffer 21:00 There’s a movement of independent candidates, but winning matters 21:45 Independents are offering a different, working class first agenda 23:00 Democrats punish candidates who aren’t perfectly aligned on social issues 24:30 Bernie Sanders is stronger candidate in a general election than a primary 25:30 The right candidate could move 7% of the electorate from right to left 27:15 If Sanders were younger and could run in 2028, he’d likely win 28:15 Sanders has more credibility than AOC because he’s from rural state 29:00 Democrats need to fight a class based, economic justice campaign 31:15 How would you make changes at the DNC? 32:30 How should Democrats approach secondary races in MT & NE? 34:00 Younger voters are disillusioned with both parties,

Chuck Todd delivers a sweeping analysis of how the Iran war is metastasizing into an economic, military, and constitutional crisis all at once — warning that the Strait of Hormuz, the most important waterway in the world through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply flows, is Iran's ultimate point of leverage and one Trump catastrophically failed to account for. He argues that Trump mistakenly assumed the Iranian regime would be as transactional as he is and would capitulate the way Venezuela did, but Iran has no intention of walking away from its ability to make the strait dangerous to navigate — which is all it takes to send energy markets into chaos, threaten the tourism and banking economies of Gulf states, and risk the economic collapse of nuclear-armed Pakistan through energy shortages. He calls Pete Hegseth a "Baghdad Bob"-style propagandist presiding over the administration's grotesque "memeification" of war, then turns to what he calls FCC Chairman Brendan Carr's declaration of war on press freedom — Carr threatened Saturday to revoke broadcast licenses over Iran war coverage the administration deems unfavorable, drawing immediate condemnation from Democrats, free speech groups, and even some Republicans who called it "authoritarian" and "unconstitutional." Chuck warns that while courts will likely block Carr's most extreme threats, the mere act of launching investigations creates a chilling effect not dissimilar to how broadcasting works in Russia.  He closes by acknowledging that the Iranian regime needs to go, but that Trump's disastrous decision to lift oil sanctions on Russia has only strengthened Moscow's position, and that the war has dramatically increased the likelihood of terrorist attacks against Americans  Then, Faiz Shakir — Bernie Sanders' 2020 campaign manager, former DNC chair candidate, and executive director of the progressive media organization More Perfect Union — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a bracingly honest conversation about what's wrong with the Democratic Party and what it would take to fix it. Shakir diagnoses a party that is functionally leaderless, with its top figures stuck in a "play dead" mentality while the Democratic brand polls worse than the Republican brand even as Trump's corruption grows more brazen by the day. He argues that Trump — like Biden before him — is finger-wagging at voters on the economy rather than addressing affordability, and that Democrats are blowing the opportunity to capitalize because they're terrible at picking fights and allergic to friction. Shakir is particularly scathing on the party's relationship with big tech and corporate power: He holds up Bernie Sanders' AI data center moratorium as the kind of fight Democrats should be waging, and Lina Khan's FTC tenure as the model of mission-driven disruption. The conversation then turns to the future of the party and how to build a lasting majority. Shakir argues that the right candidate could move 7% of the electorate from right to left, that if Sanders were younger he'd likely win in 2028, and that Sanders has more credibility than AOC because he represents a rural state — though he praises both AOC's national appeal and Ro Khanna's political intelligence. He insists Democrats need to fight a class-based economic justice campaign, stop punishing candidates who aren't perfectly aligned on social issues, and recognize that "independent" doesn't mean centrist — younger voters are disillusioned with both parties and hungry for a working-class-first agenda. Shakir offers a detailed vision for DNC reform: fund state parties based on merit and metrics, move Nevada to first on the primary calendar because Vegas politics would orient the party toward working-class concerns, add Michigan and North Carolina to the early window,and invest in sun belt opportunities He closes by noting that James Talarico channeled Bernie's message with a religious-based framing, and that Democratic voters always gravitate toward outsiders — the party just needs to let them run. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of standardized time, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and gives his advice for building your NCAA tournament bracket.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 05:30 The Iran War will impact nearly everything 06:15 Militar

Chuck Todd delivers a sweeping analysis of how the Iran war is metastasizing into an economic, military, and constitutional crisis all at once — warning that the Strait of Hormuz, the most important waterway in the world through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply flows, is Iran's ultimate point of leverage and one Trump catastrophically failed to account for. He argues that Trump mistakenly assumed the Iranian regime would be as transactional as he is and would capitulate the way Venezuela did, but Iran has no intention of walking away from its ability to make the strait dangerous to navigate — which is all it takes to send energy markets into chaos, threaten the tourism and banking economies of Gulf states, and risk the economic collapse of nuclear-armed Pakistan through energy shortages. He calls Pete Hegseth a "Baghdad Bob"-style propagandist presiding over the administration's grotesque "memeification" of war, then turns to what he calls FCC Chairman Brendan Carr's declaration of war on press freedom — Carr threatened Saturday to revoke broadcast licenses over Iran war coverage the administration deems unfavorable, drawing immediate condemnation from Democrats, free speech groups, and even some Republicans who called it "authoritarian" and "unconstitutional." Chuck warns that while courts will likely block Carr's most extreme threats, the mere act of launching investigations creates a chilling effect not dissimilar to how broadcasting works in Russia.  He closes by acknowledging that the Iranian regime needs to go, but that Trump's disastrous decision to lift oil sanctions on Russia has only strengthened Moscow's position, and that the war has dramatically increased the likelihood of terrorist attacks against Americans  Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the creation of standardized time, answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and gives his advice for building your NCAA tournament bracket.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:15 The Iran War will impact nearly everything 05:00 Military, war has been a route but it’s become asymmetrical 05:45 The Strait of Hormuz is the most important waterway in the world 06:45 Trump mistakenly assumed Iranian regime would be transactional like him 08:00 Shutting the strait is Iran’s biggest point of deterrence 09:00 Shutting the strait can massively damage the world economy 09:45 Trump miscalculated Iran would capitulate like Venezuela 12:00 The strait is Iran’s leverage, they aren’t going to walk away from it 12:45 Trump talks a big game, but Iran can extract a huge price on the west 14:15 Pete Hegseth has become a “Baghdad Bob” style propagandist 15:30 Asymmetrical warfare is how America won the Revolutionary War 16:45 All Iran has to do is make the Strait of Hormuz dangerous to navigate 17:30 Reagan had to intervene in the Gulf in the 80s to secure shipping routes 18:15 Convoy protection missions rarely stay small 19:15 If keeping shipping lanes open is the goal, the timeline & operation expands 20:00 Gulf states has become tourism & banking hubs, that’s being threatened 21:15 War is both an economic and “image” blow to the gulf states 22:30 Energy shortages risk the economic collapse of nuclear armed Pakistan 23:30 Trump made a disastrous decision to lift oil sanctions on Russia 24:00 War in Iran is strengthening Russia’s position in the Ukraine war 24:45 Energy prices affect the entire economy. Will raise inflation in America 25:30 This war is a major economic gamble 26:30 FCC Chair declares war on freedom of the press 27:15 Carr threatens to pull broadcast licenses over unfavorable war coverage 28:15 Carr’s threats aren’t dissimilar to how broadcasting works in Russia 30:00 FCC just launching investigations can put pressure on networks 31:15 ABC settling with Trump was a massive mistake 32:30 Project 2025 proposed “broadcast regulation” similar to this 33:45 Administration’s “memeification” of war is gross & embarrassing 35:00 War has increased likelihood of terrorist attacks against American 35:30 American Jews & Muslims have had to spend millions on security 36:15 Administration hiding terrorism reports should scare us* 37:45 The courts will stop Brendan Carr from violating press freedom 38:45 Administratio

Fiona Hill — who served on the National Security Council under three presidents and became a household name during Trump's first impeachment — joins the Chuck ToddCast for a deeply alarming assessment of the Iran war now entering its second week, with Operation Epic Fury having metastasized into a multi-front conflict spanning nine countries, oil prices surging past $100 a barrel, and hundreds of thousands of travelers stranded across the Middle East. Hill dismantles the geopolitical chessboard with surgical precision, explaining that while there is no formal alliance between Russia and Iran and that the relationship is deeply transactional, with Iran having provided Russia with Shahed drones and helped build a drone factory. She argues that China is letting the U.S. "rope-a-dope" itself, sitting back alongside Russia to watch America bleed resources and credibility in yet another Middle Eastern quagmire. She flags the glaring double standard in the administration's diplomacy: envoy Steve Witkoff refused to take the Iranians at their word during nuclear negotiations in Geneva but accepted Russian assurances at face value. The conversation turns existential as Hill warns that Trump's adventurism — which never faced serious consequences through Venezuela or the June 2025 strikes that made Iran look like a paper tiger — has now collided with reality. Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant successor, but none of those hopes have materialized. Hill calls it an Afghanistan-and-Iraq-level jam with even less global credibility.. They raise the chilling question of whether Xi Jinping might prioritize seizing Taiwan while America is overextended, observes that NORAD doesn't function without Canada and the Nordic countries that Trump has alienated, warns that the damage to America's reputation will last decades, and notes that individual U.S. states are already setting up their own diplomatic representation with foreign countries to fill the vacuum. They close with a striking contrast: unlike Russians, Americans can still vote their way out of tyranny — but the window in which that remains true may be narrowing, as we are likely entering a post-American empire period.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Fiona Hill joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:15 There is no formal alliance between Russia and Iran 02:00 Historically, Russia and Iran clashed over territory 03:45 Iran provided Russia with Shahed drones & helped build factory 04:30 Trump views his relationship with Russia & Putin in a vacuum 05:30 Iran’s relationship with China & Russia is very transactional 06:15 Iran sees itself as a civilization, not just a country 08:00 China is letting the U.S. “rope a dope” itself 09:15 China doesn’t do favors without a cost 10:00 Witkoff didn’t take Iranians at their word but did with Russia 10:30 China & Russia are sitting back and watching what happens in Iran 11:30 Special military operations often become quagmires 12:45 Trump hasn’t thought about the knock-on consequences in Iran 15:00 Administration thinks they can figure it out as they go 15:45 Trump’s adventurism never had serious consequences until now 17:30 9/11 shaped the frame for American thinking for 25 years 18:30 Do you buy that MBS pushed Trump into striking Iran? 19:30 The Chinese didn’t see unintended effects of war in Ukraine 20:30 Russia has 20x casualty rate in Ukraine that USSR had in Afghanistan 22:30 The Israelis are clear that they want regime change 22:45 Outside of eliminating the nuclear program… What's the rest of our aim? 24:15 Without regime change, Iranian and Venezuelan people will turn on Trump 25:15 There’s a large Iranian population is many countries 25:45 Trump is in a Afghanistan/Iraq level jam with no plan 26:30 Gutting of national security council effects on Trump’s planning 27:45 We’ve lost grip of our political system, congress has abdicated 29:00 High oil prices could be a boon to Russia, but shipping is an issue 31:15 Putin doesn’t want to end the war in Ukraine unless its on his terms 32:00 Ukraine has been an incredibly tough fighting force 32:45 The rich & powerful forget that the other 8 billion people have agency 34:15 Ukraine won’t have a peace imposed on it by outsiders 35:00 Trump assumes everyone else is as transaction

Chuck Todd opens with a grim inventory of an administration besieged on every front as the Iran war enters its twelfth day with no exit strategy in sight. He then pivots to the SAVE Act — the Republican voting bill that has 50 Senate votes but faces a filibuster John Thune admits he likely can't break. He walks through the details that go well beyond simple voter ID: the bill requires documentary proof of citizenship to register, treats women who change their name through marriage as first-time voters, and Trump is demanding additions including a near-total ban on mail-in voting — turning what polls show is an 80%-popular concept into a toxic package that could disenfranchise millions. He notes that John Cornyn flipped his filibuster position to chase Trump's Texas endorsement, warns that if Republicans nuke the filibuster and Democrats later win the Senate they won't restore it, and argues that Republicans are essentially writing legislation to make Trump's false fraud claims real — while Trump is already setting up the SAVE Act's inevitable failure as his preemptive excuse for midterm losses that have nothing to do with voting rules and everything to do with an unpopular war, a tanking economy, and a completely unserious leader running the Pentagon. Ultimately, he argues that partisan changes to voting rule destroy trust in democracy, whether it be the SAVE Act, or Democrats efforts to pass HR1. Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and celebrates the start of March Madness.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:30 There’s no easy way for Trump to get out of Iran 05:30 It’s become clear US responsible for bombing Iranian school 06:15 FBI warns California law enforcement of threat of Iranian drone strikes 07:15 The fallout from the war is complicated & Trump can’t just turn it off 08:30 Drone attack that killed US soldiers far more serious than initially reported 09:15 Republicans in congress are demoralized & don’t know what to run on 10:45 Pentagon bars press for publishing “unflattering” photos of Pete Hegseth 12:00 We have a serious war and a completely unserious leader of the Pentagon 12:45 Republican senators knew Hegseth was unqualified & confirmed him anyway 14:15 It’s important to explain the details of the Republican SAVE Act 15:00 John Cornyn flipped position on the filibuster to try to earn Trump endorsement 15:30 Republicans likely don’t have the votes to kill the filibuster 16:15 Contrasting and comparing Democrats HR1 vs Republicans SAVE Act 18:15 SAVE Act requires proof of citizenship to vote 19:00 Trump wants a total ban on mail in voting and all voting on one day 20:00 If GOP kills filibuster & Dems win senate, Dems won’t restore it 20:45 If passed in a partisan vote, SAVE Act would delegitimize democracy 21:45 If rules change based on who’s in power, the public will lose faith in process 23:30 We’re seeing a collision of two partisan visions over who gets to vote 24:30 SAVE Act makes voter registration a “show your papers” event 25:30 There’s a massive gap between bill passed in house & what Trump wants 26:00 Trump is demanding a bill loaded with culture war items 27:30 If Republicans jam through the SAVE Act, it could juice Democratic turnout 29:00 Voter ID isn’t controversial with the public 29:45 There’s 80% support for proof of citizenship when registering to vote 30:15 Republicans believe it should be harder to vote, Dems think it should be easier 31:30 Trump is taking popular ideas and packaging them in a bill that is toxic 32:30 Stability in a democracy doesn’t come from a 51% majority 33:45 34k people in Arizona were barred from state elections, but had federal carve out 35:00 Almost no voter fraud has actually been found 36:00 If you change name or get married, SAVE Act treats you as first time voter 37:30 America already makes life harder on women, SAVE Act makes it worse 38:15 The SAVE Act goes WELL beyond voter ID 39:00 Republicans are writing a bill to make Trump’s bullshit real 39:45 Trump will blame failure to pass SAVE Act for election losses in midterms 41:00 SAVE Act would disenfranchise or add barriers for millions of voters 42:00 Individual citizens have no constitutional right to vote 42:45 State constitutions provide voting guar

Chuck Todd opens with a grim inventory of an administration besieged on every front as the Iran war enters its twelfth day with no exit strategy in sight. He then pivots to the SAVE Act — the Republican voting bill that has 50 Senate votes but faces a filibuster John Thune admits he likely can't break. He walks through the details that go well beyond simple voter ID: the bill requires documentary proof of citizenship to register, treats women who change their name through marriage as first-time voters, and Trump is demanding additions including a near-total ban on mail-in voting — turning what polls show is an 80%-popular concept into a toxic package that could disenfranchise millions. He notes that John Cornyn flipped his filibuster position to chase Trump's Texas endorsement, warns that if Republicans nuke the filibuster and Democrats later win the Senate they won't restore it, and argues that Republicans are essentially writing legislation to make Trump's false fraud claims real — while Trump is already setting up the SAVE Act's inevitable failure as his preemptive excuse for midterm losses that have nothing to do with voting rules and everything to do with an unpopular war, a tanking economy, and a completely unserious leader running the Pentagon. Ultimately, he argues that partisan changes to voting rule destroy trust in democracy, whether it be the SAVE Act, or Democrats efforts to pass HR1. Then, Fiona Hill — who served on the National Security Council under three presidents and became a household name during Trump's first impeachment — joins the Chuck ToddCast for a deeply alarming assessment of the Iran war now entering its second week, with Operation Epic Fury having metastasized into a multi-front conflict spanning nine countries, oil prices surging past $100 a barrel, and hundreds of thousands of travelers stranded across the Middle East. Hill dismantles the geopolitical chessboard with surgical precision, explaining that while there is no formal alliance between Russia and Iran and that the relationship is deeply transactional, with Iran having provided Russia with Shahed drones and helped build a drone factory. She argues that China is letting the U.S. "rope-a-dope" itself, sitting back alongside Russia to watch America bleed resources and credibility in yet another Middle Eastern quagmire. She flags the glaring double standard in the administration's diplomacy: envoy Steve Witkoff refused to take the Iranians at their word during nuclear negotiations in Geneva but accepted Russian assurances at face value. The conversation turns existential as Hill warns that Trump's adventurism — which never faced serious consequences through Venezuela or the June 2025 strikes that made Iran look like a paper tiger — has now collided with reality. Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant successor, but none of those hopes have materialized. Hill calls it an Afghanistan-and-Iraq-level jam with even less global credibility.. They raise the chilling question of whether Xi Jinping might prioritize seizing Taiwan while America is overextended, observes that NORAD doesn't function without Canada and the Nordic countries that Trump has alienated, warns that the damage to America's reputation will last decades, and notes that individual U.S. states are already setting up their own diplomatic representation with foreign countries to fill the vacuum. They close with a striking contrast: unlike Russians, Americans can still vote their way out of tyranny — but the window in which that remains true may be narrowing, as we are likely entering a post-American empire period. Finally, he answers listeners’ question in the “Ask Chuck” segment and celebrates the start of March Madness.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:30 There’s no easy way for Trump to get out of Iran 05:30 It’s become clear US responsible for bombing Iranian school 06:15 FBI warns California law enforcement of threat of Iranian drone strikes 07:15 The fallout from the war is complicated & Trump can’t just turn it off 08:30 Drone attack that killed US soldiers far more serious than initially reported 09:15 Republicans in congress are demoralized & don’t know what to run on 10:45 Pentagon bars press for publishing “unflattering” photos o

Chuck Todd surveys a political landscape where multiple crises are converging on the Trump administration simultaneously — and none of them are going well. The Iran war, which Chuck reiterates is a war of choice, appears to be devouring Trump's presidency: the administration burned through nearly $6 billion in munitions in just two days, is sending contradictory messages of reassurance and escalation that appear designed to manipulate markets, and seems to be operating entirely by the seat of its pants. He warns that asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States, that energy markets are in turmoil as Iran deliberately tries to inflict economic pain, that the threat of stagflation and energy shortages is very real, and that Trump's threat to use the Fed to shape oil markets has alarmed economists.  He argues that if Trump could undo the war he would — but this won't be Venezuela 2.0, because there's no opposition on the ground to coordinate with, you can't change a regime without boots on the ground that Trump won't commit, and if the regime simply survives, that counts as victory for Iran. Meanwhile, Trump naively buys Putin's claim that Russia isn't helping Iran with targeting, and that new polling shows a majority of Americans oppose the war — with MAGA influencers notably against it even as older rank-and-file supporters stick with Trump. Beyond Iran, Chuck hits the Ticketmaster settlement as proof that Trump talks a big populist game but the lobbyists always win, warns that a partial DHS shutdown risks snarling air travel and punishing the flying public while ICE has already been funded, and cautions Democrats not to overplay their hand on the shutdown. Finally, on the day of the Mississippi primaries, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide races in Mississippi and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast   Timeline: 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 00:30 Despite runoff, Dems shouldn’t get hopes up for MTG’s district 01:30 Bennie Thompson survives primary challenge in Mississippi 07:15 War of choice in Iran could devour Trump’s presidency 08:00 Administration messaging appears to be manipulating markets 09:30 We got both a message of reassurance and escalation on Monday 10:30 Administration seems to be operating by the seat of their pants 12:00 Administration has eroded trust in institutions for years 13:00 Eventually markets will stop reacting to government statements 13:30 Administration burned through nearly $6B in munitions in two days 14:30 Asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States 15:15 Energy markets are in turmoil, Iran wants to create economic pain 16:00 Threat of stagflation & energy shortages are very real 16:45 Trump threatens to use the fed to shape oil markets, alarming economists 17:30 Partial shutdown of DHS agents risks snarling air travel 18:30 When do Dems declare victory on partial shutdown? Noem was fired 19:45 ICE has already been funded. Shutdown punishes the flying public 20:30 Democrats need to be careful not to overplay their hand in shutdown 21:00 If Trump could undo the war, he would. It won’t be Venezuela 2.0 22:15 We’ve always paid to rebuild countries we’ve bombed 23:00 If the regime survives, that’s victory for Iran 24:15 Can’t change regime without boots on the ground, which Trump won’t do 25:15 There’s no opposition on the ground to coordinate with 26:00 Trump buys story from Putin that Russia isn’t assisting Iran w/targeting 26:45 U.S. using up munitions headed to Ukraine is best case for Russia 28:00 DOJ agrees to incredibly friendly settlement with Ticketmaster 28:45 Live Nation lobbyists went straight to Trump, then deal is cut 29:15 Trump talks a big game on populism, but the lobbyists always win 30:45 Young independents hate corporate power & Trump sides with corporations 31:30 New polling shows majority of Americans are against war with Iran 32:15 Older voters continue to be strongest supporters of Trump & war 33:00 MAGA influencers are against war, but rank & file support Trum

Chuck Todd surveys a political landscape where multiple crises are converging on the Trump administration simultaneously — and none of them are going well. The Iran war, which Chuck reiterates is a war of choice, appears to be devouring Trump's presidency: the administration burned through nearly $6 billion in munitions in just two days, is sending contradictory messages of reassurance and escalation that appear designed to manipulate markets, and seems to be operating entirely by the seat of its pants. He warns that asymmetric warfare has never gone well for the United States, that energy markets are in turmoil as Iran deliberately tries to inflict economic pain, that the threat of stagflation and energy shortages is very real, and that Trump's threat to use the Fed to shape oil markets has alarmed economists.  He argues that if Trump could undo the war he would — but this won't be Venezuela 2.0, because there's no opposition on the ground to coordinate with, you can't change a regime without boots on the ground that Trump won't commit, and if the regime simply survives, that counts as victory for Iran. Meanwhile, Trump naively buys Putin's claim that Russia isn't helping Iran with targeting, and that new polling shows a majority of Americans oppose the war — with MAGA influencers notably against it even as older rank-and-file supporters stick with Trump. Beyond Iran, Chuck  hits the Ticketmaster settlement as proof that Trump talks a big populist game but the lobbyists always win, warns that a partial DHS shutdown risks snarling air travel and punishing the flying public while ICE has already been funded, and cautions Democrats not to overplay their hand on the shutdown. Then, John Adams, editor of the Montana Free Press, joins the Chuck Toddcast to make the case that local journalism has been in crisis — and that saving it might be one of the most important things Americans can do for their democracy. Adams is on the show to promote Local News Day on April 9th, a nationwide effort involving 700 local newsrooms aimed not at fundraising but at spreading awareness. He traces the origin story of the Montana Free Press back to his appearance in the documentary "Dark Money", a story about outside money quietly trying to buy Montana politics at the local level with zero disclosure — and the journalists best positioned to expose it were losing their jobs. Adams argues the economics of local news changed drastically as advertising revenue collapsed and audiences became hypnotized by social media and smartphones, but that the need and appetite for local reporting never went away. The conversation turns to the deeper consequences of local news deserts: the loss of trusted community voices created a vacuum that bred distrust in the national press, because people no longer had local "character references" — journalists they knew and saw at the grocery store — to anchor their understanding of how media works. Adams warns that the rise of AI-generated misinformation makes reliable local sources more important than ever, noting that while younger people tend to be savvier at spotting junk online, older generations are particularly vulnerable. They close by noting that strong local news doesn't just serve democracy — it helps local businesses target customers, creating an economic ecosystem that benefits everyone — and that journalism ultimately has to reach enough people to really matter, which is exactly what Local News Day at localnewsday.org is designed to help make possible. Finally, on the day of the Mississippi primaries, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide races in Mississippi and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 00:30 Despite runoff, Dems shouldn’t get hopes up for MTG’s district 01:30 Bennie Thompson survives primary challenge in Mississippi 07:15 War of choice in Iran could devour Trump’s presidency 08:00 Administration messaging appears to be manipulating markets 09:30 We got bot

Interview Only w/ John Adams - Bringing Local News Back From The Brink John Adams, editor of the Montana Free Press, joins the Chuck Toddcast to make the case that local journalism has been in crisis — and that saving it might be one of the most important things Americans can do for their democracy. Adams is on the show to promote Local News Day on April 9th, a nationwide effort involving 700 local newsrooms aimed not at fundraising but at spreading awareness. He traces the origin story of the Montana Free Press back to his appearance in the documentary "Dark Money", a story about outside money quietly trying to buy Montana politics at the local level with zero disclosure — and the journalists best positioned to expose it were losing their jobs. Adams argues the economics of local news changed drastically as advertising revenue collapsed and audiences became hypnotized by social media and smartphones, but that the need and appetite for local reporting never went away. The conversation turns to the deeper consequences of local news deserts: the loss of trusted community voices created a vacuum that bred distrust in the national press, because people no longer had local "character references" — journalists they knew and saw at the grocery store — to anchor their understanding of how media works. Adams warns that the rise of AI-generated misinformation makes reliable local sources more important than ever, noting that while younger people tend to be savvier at spotting junk online, older generations are particularly vulnerable. They close by noting that strong local news doesn't just serve democracy — it helps local businesses target customers, creating an economic ecosystem that benefits everyone — and that journalism ultimately has to reach enough people to really matter, which is exactly what Local News Day at localnewsday.org is designed to help make possible. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 John Adams (Montana Free Press) joins the Chuck ToddCast 00:45 The importance of local news & purpose of Local News Day, April 9th 03:15 Why create Local News Day? 04:15 The crisis with local news isn’t new, been happening for years 05:30 It’s easier to get international news than news from your community 06:30 The need and appetite for local news has never gone away 07:45 Local news has become en vogue like a local craft beer 09:45 People embrace their local identity 12:15 Origin story of the Montana Free Press 12:45 “Dark Money” documentary about fight against Montana copper barons 15:00 Big outside money was trying to buy Montana politics at the local level 17:15 None of the outside money was disclosed 18:00 John lost his reporting job during the 2015 legislative session 20:00 Three of the most experienced local journalists were jobless 20:30 MFP founded on principle that local journalism is essential as a nonprofit 22:15 Economics of local news changed drastically, made newspapers expensive 24:00 Audiences are highly distracted by social media & smartphones 25:30 We need good new sources of information to combat misinfo from AI 26:45 Younger people are savvier online, older generations struggle with AI 28:30 It’s easier to trust local news sources because they’re in your community 29:15 Journalists have to almost “sell” their info for people to see it 31:30 It’s important to report on what your audience cares about 33:00 AP reporter in Montana was attacked and then the reporter was doxxed 35:15 Loss of local news character references created distrust in national press 36:30 Importance of local “service journalism” 40:00 Recreating the equivalent of morning drive news radio as a podcast 40:45 Using google trends questions to help inform your journalism 42:00 Algorithms only give people what they want, not what they need to know 42:45 Local news at its best reflects what the community cares about 43:45 Localnewsday.org is where people can find ways to help & connect 45:30 The better local news does, the better local businesses can target customers 46:30 700 local newsrooms

Legendary documentarian Ken Burns joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sweeping conversation about American history, the craft of telling it honestly, and why historical perspective has never mattered more than it does right now. Burns addresses head-on the criticism that his work is "woke," arguing that his documentaries have a perspective but it's not left versus right — he wants to call balls and strikes, and the truth shouldn't be something people fear. He offers a striking defense of nuance, noting that the Republican Party has been the most successful political party on earth and that his life's work has been about making films about both the U.S. and "us" — the complicated, contradictory people who built and continue to shape the country. Burns discusses his latest project on the American Revolution, which he insists he didn't intentionally time to the 250th anniversary, and reveals he's also working on a film about Reconstruction and potentially a documentary on the Cold War. He walks through his rigorous process for evaluating source material, the challenge of needing great actors to bring the founders to life, and how those founders were obsessively focused on virtue — creating something genuinely new in human history while writing a Constitution brilliant enough to endure centuries but unable to foresee Congress voluntarily abdicating its own power. The conversation takes a fascinating philosophical turn as they explore the recurring patterns of American history: the manufacture of fear as a tool for authoritarians, the repeated failure of using government to force social change, and the way religion has been wielded as a cudgel by governments despite the founders being explicitly against a national religion. Burns offers a revealing window into his methodology, explaining that you need 25 to 30 years of distance before you can responsibly cover a historical subject, and that Trump's presidency has effectively constipated the scholarship on the Obama era because the two will be forever intertwined in history. He notes that views on Vietnam's legacy shifted vastly over decades, and that the passage of time is essential for triangulating toward truth — take historians for their knowledge, not always their perspective.    Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Ken Burns joins the Chuck ToddCast 00:45 No shortage of American history topics to cover 01:45 Having historical perspective is incredibly important 03:30 American revolution one of the most important events in history 04:00 Criticism of his documentary as being “woke”, fearful of the truth 05:15 The Republican party has been the most successful party on earth 06:15 Making films about the U.S. and also “Us” 07:00 Ken’s documentaries have a perspective, but it’s not left vs. right 07:45 You want to call “ball & strikes” 09:15 Making a film about the Reconstruction period 10:00 The author’s politics matter when consuming historical books 11:15 People want historical events to match their worldview 12:30 The process for evaluating source material for his documentaries 14:45 The founders were incredibly focused on virtue 15:30 Needed great actors to bring the founders to life 16:15 The American experiment was something new in human history 17:00 Didn’t mean to time “The American Revolution” release on 250th  18:30 Constitution is a brilliant document, didn’t foresee congress abdicating 20:30 The manufacture of fear empowers authoritarians 22:30 There’s so many historical items with which to tell the story 25:00 Using government as instrument of social change 26:15 Prohibition was going to happen with or without the Spanish Flu pandemic 29:00 Forcing social change via government was never going to work well 31:00 We don’t teach the history of religion out of fear 32:45 Deism became the religious choice of many of the founders 33:15 Religion has been used as a cudgel by governments 34:00 Founders were explicitly against a national religion 37:00 The story of America&rs

Chuck Todd opens the episode with a blunt assessment: it's starting to feel like the beginning of the end of Donald Trump's presidency. From an open-ended war in Iran to a cratering stock market, Trump finds himself sinking deeper into what Chuck calls "presidential quicksand," with every show of strength only revealing more weakness. Chuck breaks down the staggering early costs of the Iran conflict — over 1,000 casualties and $6 billion spent in just one week — and asks the question no one in Washington seems willing to answer: does anyone actually have an exit strategy? On the economy, the latest jobs report is sending ominous signals. With slow growth, rising prices, and tariff uncertainty dominating the economic discourse, Chuck makes the case that the swing voters who put Trump back in the White House for his perceived economic expertise are the first ones who'll walk away when their wallets take the hit. Corporate America is also starting to find its backbone. From Anthropic refusing to strip safety guardrails to Netflix walking away from a bad deal, Chuck sees a telling pattern: companies are pushing back on a president who looks weak. Finally, Chuck takes an illuminating detour into his "Time Machine" segment, tracing how communication technology has permanently reshaped the American presidency, from Alexander Graham Bell’s first phone call, to FDR's fireside chats, all the way to Trump’s constant social media use. Plus, Chuck answers listener questions touching subjects like the potential similarities between Pearl Harbor and Trump’s Iran strikes, NIL in college sports, what's really going on with Democrats’ reactions to politicians like John Fetterman straying from the party line, and James Talarico’s bid for Congress.   Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 7:00 Trump's presidency entering "presidential quicksand" 9:00 Iran war: an expensive political disaster 11:00 Trump has no strategic endgame in Iran 12:00 Why regime change in Iran won't work 15:00 Trump's market collapse & terrible jobs report 19:00 Swing voters abandoning Trump 21:00 Supreme Court striking down Trump's tariffs 23:00 Corporate America pushing back: Anthropic, Netflix, small businesses 32:00 Republican label becoming a liability 36:00 Montana: Daines retirement stuns state 39:00 Trump no longer an outsider, now seen as the establishment 43:00 Biden/Afghanistan parallel: one bad moment can permanently crater approval ratings 57:00 Time Machine: how technology transformed the presidency 59:00 Lincoln's telegraph, FDR's fireside chats, and the evolution of presidential communication 1:09:00 How communication technology reshaped corporate leadership 1:11:00 Technology's role in weakening Congress 1:13:00 Ask Chuck: Iran vs. Pearl Harbor comparison 1:15:00 Trump's inane college football roundtable 1:31:00 Fetterman & Sinema: Democrats' narrowing ideology 1:36:00 Question about changing county borders 1:40:00 Talarico's congressional bid 1:42:00 World Baseball ClassicSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens the episode with a blunt assessment: it's starting to feel like the beginning of the end of Donald Trump's presidency. From an open-ended war in Iran to a cratering stock market, Trump finds himself sinking deeper into what Chuck calls "presidential quicksand," with every show of strength only revealing more weakness. Chuck breaks down the staggering early costs of the Iran conflict — over 1,000 casualties and $6 billion spent in just one week — and asks the question no one in Washington seems willing to answer: does anyone actually have an exit strategy? On the economy, the latest jobs report is sending ominous signals. With slow growth, rising prices, and tariff uncertainty dominating the economic discourse, Chuck makes the case that the swing voters who put Trump back in the White House for his perceived economic expertise are the first ones who'll walk away when their wallets take the hit. Corporate America is also starting to find its backbone. From Anthropic refusing to strip safety guardrails to Netflix walking away from a bad deal, Chuck sees a telling pattern: companies are pushing back on a president who looks weak. Legendary documentarian Ken Burns joins the Chuck Toddcast for a sweeping conversation about American history, the craft of telling it honestly, and why historical perspective has never mattered more than it does right now. Burns addresses head-on the criticism that his work is "woke," arguing that his documentaries have a perspective but it's not left versus right — he wants to call balls and strikes, and the truth shouldn't be something people fear. He offers a striking defense of nuance, noting that the Republican Party has been the most successful political party on earth and that his life's work has been about making films about both the U.S. and "us" — the complicated, contradictory people who built and continue to shape the country. Burns discusses his latest project on the American Revolution, which he insists he didn't intentionally time to the 250th anniversary, and reveals he's also working on a film about Reconstruction and potentially a documentary on the Cold War. He walks through his rigorous process for evaluating source material, the challenge of needing great actors to bring the founders to life, and how those founders were obsessively focused on virtue — creating something genuinely new in human history while writing a Constitution brilliant enough to endure centuries but unable to foresee Congress voluntarily abdicating its own power. The conversation takes a fascinating philosophical turn as they explore the recurring patterns of American history: the manufacture of fear as a tool for authoritarians, the repeated failure of using government to force social change, and the way religion has been wielded as a cudgel by governments despite the founders being explicitly against a national religion. Burns offers a revealing window into his methodology, explaining that you need 25 to 30 years of distance before you can responsibly cover a historical subject, and that Trump's presidency has effectively constipated the scholarship on the Obama era because the two will be forever intertwined in history. He notes that views on Vietnam's legacy shifted vastly over decades, and that the passage of time is essential for triangulating toward truth — take historians for their knowledge, not always their perspective. Finally, Chuck takes an illuminating detour into his "Time Machine" segment, tracing how communication technology has permanently reshaped the American presidency, from Alexander Graham Bell’s first phone call, to FDR's fireside chats, all the way to Trump’s constant social media use. Plus, Chuck answers listener questions touching subjects like the potential similarities between Pearl Harbor and Trump’s Iran strikes, NIL in college sports, what's really going on with Democrats’ reactions to politicians like John Fetterman straying from the party line, and James Talarico’s bid for Congress.   Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 7

Political commentator Chris Cillizza — who co-hosted the live Texas primary night coverage with Chuck— rejoins the show to dissect the aftermath of the Texas results and the broader 2026 landscape. With Jasmine Crockett having conceded to James Talarico and the Paxton-Cornyn race headed to a runoff that's essentially a coin flip, Todd and Cillizza dig into what Talarico's victory really means: he dominated in counties Bernie Sanders won, Latino voters broke decisively his way, and his ground game should terrify Republicans — but they caution against mistaking someone who is temperamentally moderate and perceived as "nice" for being politically moderate. They argue that Texas Democrats, having lost for so long, were desperate for something new, and that constant losing has made electability matter more than ideology — Democrats had to vote with their heads, not their hearts. They assess Crockett's future (great political athlete, bad campaign infrastructure, potential to compete for Ted Cruz's seat someday), debate whether Democrats should meddle in the GOP runoff to boost Paxton, and note that Talarico’s floor is around 47-48% — meaning Texas is genuinely in play. The conversation then expands to the national map and the broader forces shaping 2026. They unpack Kamala Harris's late endorsement of Crockett — which came too late to matter and reinforces the same knock Biden got about indecisiveness — and Gavin Newsom's conspicuous shift on Israel in front of a liberal audience. They contrast that with the authenticity of politicians like Bernie Sanders and early-career JD Vance, noting that Vance has now lost his anti-interventionist identity after backing the Iran war while the administration's narrative spinning on the conflict is "an absolute mess." Looking ahead, they agree that the perception of the economy in June will be what drives the midterms, that the war will consume the administration — especially given the embarrassing lack of an evacuation plan for Americans in the Middle East, Trump's biggest critique of Biden — and that prediction markets now give Democrats a 45% chance of winning the Senate. They close by surveying pickup opportunities in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, flagging independent candidates in the Midwest who know they can't win as Democrats, and declaring that 2026 will be the clearest preview yet of how 2028 plays out.   Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chris Cillizza joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:30 Jasmine Crockett concedes race to James Talarico 02:15 Race between Paxton & Cornyn essentially a wash 03:00 Big question is “Can Cornyn get to 50%” 03:45 Public is getting tired with the bomb throwers in politics 05:45 Talarico did well in counties that Bernie Sanders won 06:45 Texas Dems have been losing forever, desperate for “new” 08:30 Don’t mistake politically & temperamentally “moderate” 09:15 Being perceived as “nice” goes a long way 10:30 Online Dems are mad, but many want a change in tone 12:00 If Platner beats Mills by 15, Talarico data point feels like outlier 12:45 Have constant Dem losses in TX made “electability” more important? 13:45 Dems in Texas have to vote with their head and not their heart 15:30 Crockett is a great political athlete with bad campaign infrastructure 16:30 Talarico had a great ground game, should scare Republicans 17:45 Crockett could compete for Ted Cruz’s senate seat 18:30 Unlikely this is the last we hear from Crockett in politics 19:30 Crockett did well where she was well known 20:30 Kamala Harris endorsement came too late for Crockett 21:30 Harris shows herself to be incredibly risk averse 24:15 We’ll get the full story on the late endorsement in six months 25:00 Harris shares the same knock Biden got… can’t make decisions 25:45 Newsom signals shift on Israel in front of a very liberal audience 27:00 Newsom just pandering? Or is it a genuine flip 28:30 Gavin Newsom is a politician to his core 30:00 Newsom looked like he was desp

Chuck Todd delivers a blistering assessment of Trump's Iran war, arguing that the conflict has gone sideways in virtually every way imaginable — and that the lack of consequences for Trump's past norm-breaking gave him a false sense of impunity that led him here. Todd traces the logic: Iran looked like a paper tiger after the limited strikes in 2025, Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant regime insider to step forward — but none of those hopes have materialized. Instead, the forces that wanted to overthrow the regime have gone underground, the CIA is now arming and training Kurds in what Chuck bluntly asks amounts to deliberately triggering a civil war, Iran has inflicted real damage on multiple Gulf states, and stranded Americans were told by the State Department they were on their own because the administration made no evacuation plan whatsoever. He zeroes in on the damning timeline: if the administration had time to move an armada into position, they had time to warn American citizens. He flags that passing a war supplemental will be a brutal vote for GOP members, that JD Vance now has to defend a war antithetical to his entire political identity, and pivots to the Texas runoff noting that James Talarico's biggest vulnerability is being more progressive than his nice-guy persona suggests, but that demeanor may be his superpower in a cycle where voters are exhausted by bomb-throwers. Finally, he reacts to the breaking news that Montana senator Steve Daines retired minutes before the filing deadline and argues that Republicans will be forced to defend what was a safe seat, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.   Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast   Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:45 Trump’s war with Iran is not going well for him politically 02:30 Multiple countries have been dragged into a piece of the war 03:30 Lack of consequences for past actions gave Trump sense of impunity 04:45 Iran looked like a paper tiger after strikes in June 2025 05:30 Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it 07:30 Trump hoped for an uprising or a pliant member of the regime 08:45 None of those hopes have materialized  09:30 Forces that wanted to overthrow regime went underground 10:30 The CIA is arming and training Kurds to overthrow the regime 11:45 Are we TRYING to trigger a civil war??? 12:30 Regime change won’t come nearly as easy as Trump thought 13:15 Iran has inflicted damage to multiple gulf states 14:45 You can’t discount Trump’s business relationship as factors for war 16:00 Kushner involved in negotiations and has serious conflicts of interest 17:15 The administration is trying to use Israel as a shield 18:15 Administration made no plan to evacuate stranded Americans 19:00 Clearly was no imminent threat from Iran 20:30 If they had time to move the armada, they had time to warn Americans 21:30 The Iranians weren’t surprised that we were going to attack 22:30 Trump promised Iranian protestors “Help is on the way” - Took 40 days 23:00 State department told stranded Americans they were on their own 24:30 They put thought into the war itself, but not for the consequences 26:30 What’s Plan C? Hoping for a civil war? 27:15 This is Iraq on steroids and we have less credibility globally 28:30 Cost of providing stability in the region is politically unpopular 29:30 It’s a lot easier to start a war than to finish one 30:45 George H.W. Bush had a clean war with Iraq and voters punished him 32:00 When you’re under 80% support with your own party, you’re in trouble 33:30 Trump isn’t an isolationist, he’s a unilateralist. Do what he says 34:45 Passing a supplemental bill for war funding will be tough vote for GOP 36:30 J.D. Vance has to defend a war that’s antithetical to his political identity 37:30 Trump will endorse in Texas primary and expects the other to drop out 38:15 What will Trump offer Paxton to drop out early? 40:45 Republicans can&rs

Chuck Todd delivers a blistering assessment of Trump's Iran war, arguing that the conflict has gone sideways in virtually every way imaginable — and that the lack of consequences for Trump's past norm-breaking gave him a false sense of impunity that led him here. Todd traces the logic: Iran looked like a paper tiger after the limited strikes in 2025, Trump saw the opportunity to kill Khamenei and took it, hoping for either a popular uprising or a pliant regime insider to step forward — but none of those hopes have materialized. Instead, the forces that wanted to overthrow the regime have gone underground, the CIA is now arming and training Kurds in what Chuck bluntly asks amounts to deliberately triggering a civil war, Iran has inflicted real damage on multiple Gulf states, and stranded Americans were told by the State Department they were on their own because the administration made no evacuation plan whatsoever. He zeroes in on the damning timeline: if the administration had time to move an armada into position, they had time to warn American citizens. He flags that passing a war supplemental will be a brutal vote for GOP members, that JD Vance now has to defend a war antithetical to his entire political identity, and pivots to the Texas runoff noting that James Talarico's biggest vulnerability is being more progressive than his nice-guy persona suggests, but that demeanor may be his superpower in a cycle where voters are exhausted by bomb-throwers. Political commentator Chris Cillizza — who co-hosted the live Texas primary night coverage with Chuck— rejoins the show to dissect the aftermath of the Texas results and the broader 2026 landscape. With Jasmine Crockett having conceded to James Talarico and the Paxton-Cornyn race headed to a runoff that's essentially a coin flip, Todd and Cillizza dig into what Talarico's victory really means: he dominated in counties Bernie Sanders won, Latino voters broke decisively his way, and his ground game should terrify Republicans — but they caution against mistaking someone who is temperamentally moderate and perceived as "nice" for being politically moderate. They argue that Texas Democrats, having lost for so long, were desperate for something new, and that constant losing has made electability matter more than ideology — Democrats had to vote with their heads, not their hearts. They assess Crockett's future (great political athlete, bad campaign infrastructure, potential to compete for Ted Cruz's seat someday), debate whether Democrats should meddle in the GOP runoff to boost Paxton, and note that Talarico’s floor is around 47-48% — meaning Texas is genuinely in play. The conversation then expands to the national map and the broader forces shaping 2026. They unpack Kamala Harris's late endorsement of Crockett — which came too late to matter and reinforces the same knock Biden got about indecisiveness — and Gavin Newsom's conspicuous shift on Israel in front of a liberal audience. They contrast that with the authenticity of politicians like Bernie Sanders and early-career JD Vance, noting that Vance has now lost his anti-interventionist identity after backing the Iran war while the administration's narrative spinning on the conflict is "an absolute mess." Looking ahead, they agree that the perception of the economy in June will be what drives the midterms, that the war will consume the administration — especially given the embarrassing lack of an evacuation plan for Americans in the Middle East, Trump's biggest critique of Biden — and that prediction markets now give Democrats a 45% chance of winning the Senate. They close by surveying pickup opportunities in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, flagging independent candidates in the Midwest who know they can't win as Democrats, and declaring that 2026 will be the clearest preview yet of how 2028 plays out. Finally, he reacts to the breaking news that Montana senator Steve Daines retired minutes before the filing deadline and argues that Republicans will be forced to defend what was a safe seat, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.   Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit c

Chuck Todd breaks down the Texas primary results and finds a political landscape that should terrify the Republican establishment. Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are headed to a runoff on the GOP side, but the headline number is stunning: Democrats posted a higher overall vote total than Republicans in the Texas primary, a seismic signal in what has long been the country's biggest red state. He credits Talarico's viral Colbert moment with giving him a massive boost, notes that Latino voters broke decisively for Talarico over Jasmine Crockett — who ran an unconventional campaign and is unlikely to concede quickly — and argues that a Paxton vs. Talarico general election would genuinely put Texas in play. He walks through the strategic calculus: history favors Paxton in a runoff, Cornyn has outperformed polling but a Cornyn nomination would draw less national Democratic investment in the race, and Democrats should have the budget to compete in Texas regardless — because Texas is "nice to have" for Democrats but "must have" for Republicans, and if Democrats win even once there, it opens the floodgates. He also flags Dan Crenshaw losing after failing to secure Trump's endorsement, the razor-thin two-vote margin for the state senate campaign in North Carolina, and a broader pattern of bad developments piling up for the GOP — capped by Trump stoking voter skepticism with an unpopular Iran war. His verdict: this is the worst possible start to an election cycle for Republicans, because it's easy to start a war and very hard to end one. Then, Oscar-nominated filmmaker Josh Seftel joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss All the Empty Rooms, his devastating Netflix documentary short that chronicles the untouched bedrooms of children killed in school shootings since Sandy Hook. Seftel describes a country that has grown numb to over 100 school shootings just this year — where the reporting cycle moves on before victims' stories can truly be told — and explains how the simple, visceral act of standing in a dead child's bedroom forces viewers to feel something that statistics never could. He reveals that many parents have kept these rooms exactly as their children left them, preserving even the smell, creating what amounts to sacred spaces frozen in time.Chuck draws the parallel to the decision to show Emmett Till's open casket, and Seftel argues these painful stories must be told regardless of how uncomfortable they make us, because imagery can be more powerful than the spoken word. What makes the film's approach so striking — and so strategically effective — is what it leaves out. The word "gun" is never mentioned, a deliberate choice to avoid triggering the political reflexes that shut down conversation before it starts. And it's working: Seftel shares that a Second Amendment enthusiast changed his mind after seeing the photos of empty rooms, and even a Sandy Hook denier reached out after watching. The film's funders didn't want to make money — they wanted to make change — and Netflix's global distribution has given it a massive reach. Seftel says the conversation has to start with one simple question — "How do we keep kids safe at school?" — and that the film intentionally got better as it got shorter, stripping away prescription and polemic to let the silence of those rooms do the work. Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time Texas statewide elections and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:00 Ken Paxton & John Cornyn headed to a runoff 02:30 Democrats had a higher vote total than Republicans in Texas primary 03:45 Talarico’s moment with Stephen Colbert gave him a huge boost 05:00 Several house races headed to a run off 07:00 Latino voters broke fairly decisively for Talarico 07:45 Crockett didn’t run a conventional campaign 08:30 Crockett is unlikely to concede quickly 10:00 We never got the full story on the Colbert moment 11:15 Fighter vs Uniter is the divide amongst

Chuck Todd breaks down the Texas primary results and finds a political landscape that should terrify the Republican establishment. Ken Paxton and John Cornyn are headed to a runoff on the GOP side, but the headline number is stunning: Democrats posted a higher overall vote total than Republicans in the Texas primary, a seismic signal in what has long been the country's biggest red state. He credits Talarico's viral Colbert moment with giving him a massive boost, notes that Latino voters broke decisively for Talarico over Jasmine Crockett — who ran an unconventional campaign and is unlikely to concede quickly — and argues that a Paxton vs. Talarico general election would genuinely put Texas in play. He walks through the strategic calculus: history favors Paxton in a runoff, Cornyn has outperformed polling but a Cornyn nomination would draw less national Democratic investment in the race, and Democrats should have the budget to compete in Texas regardless — because Texas is "nice to have" for Democrats but "must have" for Republicans, and if Democrats win even once there, it opens the floodgates. He also flags Dan Crenshaw losing after failing to secure Trump's endorsement, the razor-thin two-vote margin for the state senate campaign in North Carolina, and a broader pattern of bad developments piling up for the GOP — capped by Trump stoking voter skepticism with an unpopular Iran war. His verdict: this is the worst possible start to an election cycle for Republicans, because it's easy to start a war and very hard to end one. Finally, Chuck lists his ToddCast Top 5 All-Time Texas statewide elections and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:00 Ken Paxton & John Cornyn headed to a runoff 02:30 Democrats had a higher vote total than Republicans in Texas primary 03:45 Talarico’s moment with Stephen Colbert gave him a huge boost 05:00 Several house races headed to a run off 07:00 Latino voters broke fairly decisively for Talarico 07:45 Crockett didn’t run a conventional campaign 08:30 Crockett is unlikely to concede quickly 10:00 We never got the full story on the Colbert moment 11:15 Fighter vs Uniter is the divide amongst Democrats 13:00 If Cornyn can stay ahead of Paxton, that will matter to Trump 14:30 Talarico being the nominee will make establishment Republicans nervous 16:00 History says it’s more likely that Paxton wins the runoff  18:00 Cornyn has outperformed the polling 18:30 With Paxton & Talarico as the nominees, Texas is in play  19:30 Do senate Democrats play in the Republican runoff? 20:30 If it’s Cornyn vs. Talarico, the national party won’t help Talarico as much 22:00 Will Dems spend on Alaska, Iowa and Nebraska? 23:15 Dems should have the budget to target Texas 24:00 Texas is “nice to have” for Dems, it’s “must have” for Republicans 25:30 If Democrats win once in Texas, it opens the door for more wins 26:45 Two vote margin for the state senate president in North Carolina 27:45 Dan Crenshaw didn’t get Trump endorsement and lost 29:15 Bad developments keep happening for the Republican party 30:15 Trump is only stoking voter skepticism with Iran war 31:30 It’s easy to start a war, it’s hard to end one 32:00 Worst possible start to an election cycle for the Republicans 41:30 ToddCast Top 5 All-Time statewide campaigns in Texas history 43:30 #5 2006 Governor’s race 49:00 #4 1994 Governor’s race 52:00 #3 1924 Governor’s race 55:30 #2 1962 special election for senate 1:00:15 #1 1948 Democratic senate primary 1:07:45 Honorable mentions 1:10:15 Ask Chuck 1:10:30 Take on Pete Hegseth’s briefing on the Iran war? What are the objectives? 1:16:45 Why is a war powers resolution needed? How can congress restrain Trump? 1:20:00 Will this war be better received if not launched during tax season? 1:24:30 Explaining complex political & world events to your kids?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy informatio

Oscar-nominated filmmaker Josh Seftel joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss All the Empty Rooms, his devastating Netflix documentary short that chronicles the untouched bedrooms of children killed in school shootings since Sandy Hook. Seftel describes a country that has grown numb to over 100 school shootings just this year — where the reporting cycle moves on before victims' stories can truly be told — and explains how the simple, visceral act of standing in a dead child's bedroom forces viewers to feel something that statistics never could. He reveals that many parents have kept these rooms exactly as their children left them, preserving even the smell, creating what amounts to sacred spaces frozen in time.Chuck draws the parallel to the decision to show Emmett Till's open casket, and Seftel argues these painful stories must be told regardless of how uncomfortable they make us, because imagery can be more powerful than the spoken word. What makes the film's approach so striking — and so strategically effective — is what it leaves out. The word "gun" is never mentioned, a deliberate choice to avoid triggering the political reflexes that shut down conversation before it starts. And it's working: Seftel shares that a Second Amendment enthusiast changed his mind after seeing the photos of empty rooms, and even a Sandy Hook denier reached out after watching. The film's funders didn't want to make money — they wanted to make change — and Netflix's global distribution has given it a massive reach. Seftel says the conversation has to start with one simple question — "How do we keep kids safe at school?" — and that the film intentionally got better as it got shorter, stripping away prescription and polemic to let the silence of those rooms do the work. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Josh Seftel joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:45 People are surprised by the portrayal in “All the Empty Rooms” 02:15 Public has grown to accept over 100 school shootings a year 03:00 Seeing the empty rooms of victims forces you to feel something 04:30 Why has mass shooting frequency been accelerating? 06:00 Does media coverage of shootings plant the seed for more? 07:15 Says a lot about American psyche that True Crime is so popular 08:30 Focus of the doc is on victims, not the shooters 09:00 Asked parents of every child killed since Sandy Hook to film their room 12:00 Media that means to come back to tell victims stories aren’t able to 13:00 Stories must be told, regardless of how painful. Like Emmit Til  14:15 Many parents kept their slain children’s rooms untouched 15:15 Parents want to preserve the smell of their children 16:15 How did you compartmentalize when making this doc? 18:15 The hope of the doc is that everyone can feel the weight of the loss 19:30 People with the power to fix this problem need to see this doc 21:00 The word “Gun” is never mentioned, didn’t want to turn off viewers 22:45 Photos of empty rooms led 2A enthusiast to change his mind 23:30 Got an email from a Sandy Hook denier that watched the doc 25:30 The doc paints a 3D image of the victims, that gets missed normally 28:00 Parents choose to grieve & respond in different ways 30:00 Each family & parent has a different relationship with the empty room 31:45 Some families want to move, but can’t bring themselves to pack up room 33:30 Was it hard not to get prescriptive? 36:00 Conversation must start with “How do we keep kids safe at school?” 37:00 The film got better as it got shorter 38:00 Imagery can be more powerful than spoken word 39:15 Streaming on Netflix allows for far wider distribution  40:30 Funders for the doc didn’t want to make money, they wanted to make change 44:00 The topic wasn’t just powerful, it was visually powerfulSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a searing assessment of a war he calls one of choice, not necessity. He argues that "ends justify the means" sums up everything about Trump's presidency, noting that the rationale for the war has shifted multiple times, there was no smoking gun incident to prompt the strikes, the administration's credibility with the public is extremely low, and Trump's own surrogates spent years warning that Democrats would start a war with Iran. He questions whether the U.S. got boxed in by Netanyahu and whether Trump is simply looking for his own Delcy Rodriguez-style compliant leader in Tehran, pointing out the absurdity of calling on Iran's military to surrender without clarifying to whom. He warns that regime change is a tall order that gives America enormous responsibility it isn't prepared for, that oil prices are set to soar with massive domestic political consequences, and that the prior cuts to Voice of America were a shortsighted mistake now that winning hearts and minds actually matters. He warns that if unilateral executive war-making becomes normalized, America will have fundamentally changed its republic. He closes by pivoting to the Texas primary, where Talarico appears to have momentum heading into election day, Trump has refused to endorse in the GOP race leaving Cornyn exposed, and total primary turnout will serve as a critical bellwether for November's midterms. Then, Rep. Sean Casten — the Illinois Democrat, clean energy entrepreneur, and scientist-turned-congressman who was inspired to run for office by Trump's first election — joins the Chuck ToddCast for a candid and wide-ranging conversation about what's broken in Congress and how to fix it. Casten pulls back the curtain on congressional dysfunction, describing a body increasingly populated by pundits and influencers rather than legislators, where televised hearings reward political theater over policymaking and cabinet secretaries like Scott Bessent feel they don't have to answer to Congress at all. He walks through his grilling of Bessent on the legality of the Venezuelan oil seizure — a moment where the Treasury Secretary had no good answer. Casten warns that congressional weakness is the single biggest issue plaguing the federal government. They debate Chuck’s long-standing position of uncapping the House of Representatives to bring the ratio down to 400-500,000 constituents per member, Casten pitches creating a block of 12 nationally elected senators to serve the national interest, and — most provocatively — stripping the Supreme Court of its self-granted power to set its own docket, a power Congress gave and can take away. He notes that Iceland copied America's government structure and eventually scrapped its senate. He closes by identifying income inequality, AI, and the changing job market as the seminal issues of 2028, warning that if Trump's own supporters prioritize economic concerns, the pitchforks will be coming out. Finally, ahead of the Texas primaries on Tuesday, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit Texas’s declaration of independence from Mexico & the unique forces that shaped the state’s “Lone Star” mentality. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to  https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or AmericanFinancing.net/TheChuckToddCast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:00 “Ends justify the means” sums up everything about Trump’s presidency 06:45 The administration’s credibility with the public is extremely low 07:30 Military sources are less likely to lie to reporters than political ones 08:30 The rationale for the war has changed multiple times 09:15 There was no smoking gun incident to prompt the war 10:30 Regime change is a tall order & gives us more responsibility 12:00 Trump has called for the Iranian military to surrender… but to whom? 12:45 Cuts to Voice of America was a shortsighted mistake 13:30 After massacre of protesters, there was a humanitarian case for strikes 15:00 Is Trump looking for his own Delcy Rodriguez in Iran? 15:30 Did the U.S. g