The Bitcoin Layer

Nik welcomes back Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital for an urgent breakdown of the global liquidity cycle. Michael explains why the cyclical top is in, how oil, the MOVE index, and the dollar have dealt a 20% blow to global liquidity, and why the everything bubble is over. They cover the $45 trillion debt maturity wall, China's monetization driving gold, Treasury QE replacing Fed QE, bank deregulation as a 2027 catalyst, private credit's illiquidity risk, and why Michael says don't trade bitcoin or gold, own them. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital for a wide-ranging global macro conversation. Brent breaks down the dollar's behavior during geopolitical crises, the deglobalization thesis and fracturing supply chains, and his Rise of the American Empire framework drawing parallels to Rome's transition from republic to empire. They cover the Office of Strategic Capital's push to secure critical minerals and semiconductors, the US-China power competition over chips and rare earths, Persian Gulf risks including fertilizer disruptions and famine, and close with stablecoins, bitcoin as a pure play on global liquidity, and why digital assets are here to stay. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik welcomes back Yaël Ossowski, Fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, to break down the escalating standoff between Anthropic and the Pentagon. They examine how Claude was reportedly used in the Venezuela raid, why Anthropic is drawing a hard line against warrantless surveillance and autonomous weapons, and the political fault lines forming between AI safety and permissionless innovation. Yaël unpacks the third party doctrine and its direct implications for Bitcoiners’ financial privacy, and they close with a look at how the massive AI capex buildout is reshaping the U.S. economy and what it means for Bitcoin in the broader macro picture. The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down why Anthropic's Claude has displaced Donald Trump as the single most important force driving global macro and financial markets, walking through the system-level evidence including IBM dropping 12% on a single AI headline, Block cutting 40% of its workforce, trucking capacity sold out from data center buildout, and Treasury yields falling in direct response to new model releases. He connects the AI arms race to US economic statecraft, the fight to outpace China, and what a disinflationary labor market shock means for Fed policy, credit spreads, and Bitcoin. 📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube. 📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe 🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform. 📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer 📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial 🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch ⛓️ ₿lock Height 938641 ⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Nik Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtc Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik sits down with Sam Baker, Research at River, to break down River's second annual Bitcoin adoption report, covering how institutional ownership, registered investment advisors, sovereign holdings, and small business adoption all accelerated in 2025 despite price weakness. Sam explains why individual ownership likely peaked in 2024, why RIAs managing $146 trillion hold less than one basis point in Bitcoin, and what the ownership distribution trend implies for the decade ahead. Nik connects the data to his framework of Bitcoin as a tool of American economic statecraft in the US-China competition for global capital dominance.Episode links: https://river.com/learn/files/river-bitcoin-adoption-report-2026.pdfhttps://x.com/River/status/2026322299595432323?s=20https://btcmap.org/https://x.com/macromule📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 938184⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik walks through our TBL proprietary liquidity index, explaining why the red signal flagged in late December and confirmed in January preceded Bitcoin's sharp decline below $70,000. He breaks down the four inputs driving the current liquidity contraction, with focus on dollar volatility and bond stress, the US-Japan currency relationship, and why early-cycle US credit growth remains the structural argument for improving conditions ahead.📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 937304⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down Bitcoin’s bounce following a softer-than-expected CPI print and falling Treasury yields, analyzing the rollover in the 200-day moving average, the latest negative mining difficulty adjustment, and what shifting liquidity conditions mean for risk assets. He explains why bond markets, dollar strength, and fixed income demand, including Google’s rare 100-year bond issuance, matter more for Bitcoin in the short term than fundamentals, while also revisiting the long-term case tied to global wealth distribution, fiscal deficits, and the evolving role of Bitcoin in U.S. economic statecraft.📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 936413⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

In this episode, Nik breaks down dramatic political developments in Japan, including a snap election, currency intervention, and the U.S.-Japan effort to defend the yen, and explains why these moves matter for global liquidity and Bitcoin. He walks through Bitcoin’s drawdown using on-chain metrics like realized price and MVRV, shows why rising volatility and elevated stock correlations point to a macro driven move, and ties Japan’s bond market stress, dollar weakness, and FX intervention directly into TBL Liquidity, framing Bitcoin’s price action as part of a broader system level liquidity shift rather than an isolated market failure.📊 The Bitcoin Layer is a bitcoin and global macroeconomic research firm. ▶️ Subscribe and turn on notifications for TBL on YouTube.📚 Subscribe to TBL’s research letter: https://thebitcoinlayer.com/subscribe🎧 Subscribe to The Bitcoin Layer on your favorite podcast platform.📱 Follow TBL on X: https://twitter.com/TheBitcoinLayer📩 Join the official TBL channel on Telegram: https://t.me/thebitcoinlayerofficial🧢 Use code TBLYT10 for 10% off all The Bitcoin Layer Merch at http://TheBitcoinLayer.com/merch⛓️ ₿lock Height 935803⚡ Contribute to The Bitcoin Layer via Lightning Network: [email protected] Bhatia's Twitter: https://twitter.com/timevalueofbtcResearcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschattLead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.