Sharp China Podcast

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the state of the trade war two weeks after “Liberation Day” and the imposition of a 145% tariff rate on PRC goods. Topics include: Reports of a Trump Admin strategy to isolate the PRC, daily talk of a deal with China from President Trump, himself, signals from the PRC side that they may be willing to negotiate, and the PRC cancels orders of Boeing planes. From there: A raft of news on Nvidia as the U.S. restricts the export of H20 chips to China, Jensen Huang visits Beijing for an appearance with He Lifeng, and questions for the future of Nvidia and U.S. chip policies more generally. At the end: China restricts the export of rare earths to the U.S., rare earths as a keystone to understanding broader U.S. supply chain challenges, "Red and Expert" anxiety 60 years later, and TikTok faces new uncertainty in the wake of the tariffs.

This episode of Sharp China is outside the paywall.Show Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the intensification of the US-China trade war, including tariffs of 104% beginning on Wednesday, the PRC's options to respond, how companies like Apple could be squeezed, and why this represents the lowest point for US-China relations in a very long time. Then: Exploring EU opportunities and challenges after Premier Li Qiang's call with EU President Ursula von der Leyen, the debunked report about South Korea and Japan cooperating with the PRC, and unpacking the risks and possibilities inherent to the course the US side has chosen over the past week. At the end: Reactions to the latest TikTok extension from President Trump, a report that Liu He's son is under investigation, and a new name for the gardening podcast that may be essential in the months to come.You can listen to the podcast in the Substack app:Or click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.Subscribe to Sinocism here.Subscribe to Stratechery here.Related Readings:As the additional 50% US tariffs go into effect will the bottom fall out of the US-China relationship? -- SinocismTrump threatens 50% more tariffs on PRC; Trouble for Liu He's son; TikTok -- SinocismApril 7 People's Daily on responses to US tariffs 集中精力办好自己的事 增强有效应对美关税冲击的信心 -- SinocismApple’s China Problem, Apple in the Short Term, Tech’s Complement Risk -- StratecheryChina has the tools to weather Trump storm, Premier Li tells EU’s von der Leyen -- SCMPChina investigates ‘princeling’ amid crackdown on finance industry -- FTTrump punts on TikTok deal — app gets another 75 days -- PoliticoTo add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.Thanks for listening. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the China Development Forum, including China's messaging to foreign investors, revisiting the Mintz raids as five detained employees are finally released, no updates on a Xi-Trump meeting, and news in the EV space. From there: The US plans to revive shipbuilding capacity, the likely disruption if the US adopts the USTR recommendations to counter Chinese dominance, Michael Froman writes that China has remade the international system, and a few more thoughts on the CK Hutchison deal. At the end: Rumors swirl around He Weidong and others in the PLA, what the noise might signal, and news of a deep-sea cable cutter is accompanied by a reminder that China constructs and protects deep sea cable like no other.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-Te designating the PRC a “foreign hostile force,” the initial response from the PRC and potential responses to come, rumors surrounding CMC vice chairman He Weidong, and an email wondering about the defense of Taiwan as a core American interest. From there: Sources say Xi Jinping is “angered” by CK Hutchison's deal to sell its ports in Panama, and TikTok talks accelerate as Beijing remains silent on the issue and Oracle heads to Washington to pitch lawmakers on Project Texas 2.0. At the end: Trump says that Xi will visit the U.S. in the “not too distant future,” a question about Beijing's reaction to cuts from DOGE and Trump 2.0, a question on fentanyl, and a read on the memoir of a former Facebook exec.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the Two Sessions, including good news for tech companies as the push for new quality productive forces continues, the rhetoric surrounding domestic consumption alongside modest stimulus measures so far, the NDRC's plan to mobilize 1 billion yuan to support the startup ecosystem, and more. From there: The PRC announces new tariffs on Canadian exports and state TV warns against Canada cooperating with the U.S. on tariffs, and dueling reports on a potential Trump-Xi meeting as communication remains frustrated between high level US and China leaders. At the end: Cuts to USAID provide a win to the PRC as China-watching NGOs go offline, a whistleblower highlights Facebook’s failed attempts to enter China, and TikTok rumors continue to churn as the apparent deadline for a sale approaches in April.

This episode of Sharp China is outside the paywall.Show Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Trump raising tariffs on the PRC by 10%, the PRC's response, and the phone call Xi-Trump phone call that was rumored a month ago but still hasn't happened. Then: What to watch for during Two Sessions week, Xi has always supported private enterprises, a response from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on fentanyl, and why the U.S. focusing on domestic enforcement only goes far. From there: A roundup of news on chips, including an investigation in Singapore, TSMC's investment in the United States, a Wall Street Journal report on Nvidia, and questions facing the Trump team as new policy takes shape. At the end: The New York Times reports on "plea leniency," FIFA won't play ball with the PRC, and a variety of Moutai thoughts as Kweichow Moutai struggles to find demand.You can listen to the podcast in the Substack app:Or click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.Subscribe to Sinocism here.Subscribe to Stratechery here.Related Readings:US Tariffs; Two Sessions; Xi has always supported private enterprises; Peaceful China Initiative; Chips -- SinocismResponse to US tariffs; Two Sessions begin; DeepSeek -- SinocismFURTHER AMENDMENT TO DUTIES ADDRESSING THE SYNTHETIC OPIOID SUPPLY CHAIN IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA -- The White HouseXi Leaves Door Open for Talks With Measured Response to Trump -- BloombergStatement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs -- MoFA on TwitterBlackRock to buy Panama Canal ports after pressure from Donald Trump -- FTCanadian Police Say They Dismantled Country’s Largest Drug Lab -- NYT (Nov. 2024)How Dirty Money From Fentanyl Sales Is Flowing Through China -- WSJChinese Buyers Are Ordering Nvidia’s Newest AI Chips, Defying U.S. Curbs -- WSJSingapore Probes Potential Fraud in Nvidia AI Chip Shipments -- BloombergCover Story: DeepSeek Sets Up Race for Chinese Dominance in AI -- CaixinTrump, Chip Maker TSMC Announce $100 Billion Investment in U.S. -- WSJThe ‘Leniency’ Trap: How China’s Plea System Gives Prosecutors More Power -- N.Y.T.China’s tech minister removed from office -- FTEbbing demand for China's favourite firewater adds to debt concerns -- ReutersThe Patrón of Xinghuacun - a modest proposal for Fenjiu -- by Moatless MusingsXi Jiu, A Baijiu Bet on Xi Jinping -- SinocismSaving these for a celebration:To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.Thanks for listening. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the White House's memorandum on an America First Investment Policy, President Trump's recent appointees, the latest news from the Commerce Department and BIS, and a proposal for lifting controls on chips and tightening controls on chipmaking equipment. From there: "Reverse Nixon" possibilities and structural realities that make it unlikely, document #1 and the party's priorities surrounding food security, a PRC fishing crew is detained for questioning after a Taiwan cable cutting incident, the significance of the PLA drills between Australia and New Zealand last week, and a word about lawfare and law firms.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today’s special crossover Sharp Tech/Sharp China episode, Ben Thompson and Bill Bishop discuss the private enterprise symposium and Xi Jinping's rapprochement with China's tech companies, and the connection between xAI and DeepSeek. Then, an extended debate on the chip ban, including its potential long-term consequences, and whether or not a course correction is possible. Finally, why the situation surround Taiwan is worrisome, and whether Trump is looking to make a deal.

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by talking through a first round of US tariffs on PRC goods and responses from the PRC earlier this week. Topics include: The fentanyl allegations that served as the predicate for these tariffs, Chinese responses that highlight points of leverage should trade tensions escalate, next steps in negotiations, and the end of the de minimis loophole. From there: Secretary of State Marco Rubio tours Latin America, the PRC's investments in Panama, and questions for the future of the Panama Canal. At the end: The PRC announces an investigation into Google, a Bloomberg report suggests Apple's being investigated for its app store policies, Apple's growth in China plateaus, and a few more thoughts on DeepSeek as Congress reacts and BIS gets a new leader.Subscribe to Sinocism here.Subscribe to Stratechery here.You can listen to the podcast in the Substack app:Or click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.Related Readings:To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.Thanks for listening. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes: On today’s show Andrew and Bill wish a Happy Lunar New Year to the audience and interrupt the holiday week in the PRC to share various reactions to a week of DeepSeek discussion in the U.S. Topics include: The DeepSeek origin story, OpenAI and distillation questions, DeepSeek’s future in China after Liang Wenfeng’s meeting with Li Qiang, how…

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the fate of TikTok after a wild week of updates. Topics include: A ByteDance investor who says that TikTok may continue in the U.S. without a full divestiture, lessons for the PRC and US from the past few weeks, and why potential TikTok buyers might be wary of any deal structure that doesn't comply with the letter of federal law. Then: Week 1 of the Trump presidency provides some breathing room to both sides of the US-China tariff negotiations, why negotiations may not yield any structural relief to the US-China trade tensions, updates on the PRC economy, and why Beijing may be wary of a currency devaluation in the face of a new round of tariffs. At the end: Two updates on Taiwan, why the Taiwanese may want to choose better intermediaries to the U.S. government, and the absence of US-China tensions in Hollywood.

Thanks everyone who tuned into today’s live video with Andrew Sharp to discuss the SCOTUS decision about TikTok and what may be next for the app in the US. We are still in beta please so excuse the chatter for the first 40 seconds or so This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.Show Notes:On today’s show Bill and Andrew begin with multiple reports that Chinese officials have considered working with Elon Musk to find a resolution for TikTok in the U.S., while TikTok‘s users have flocked to Xiaohongshu and inspired a few more questions for the future. Then: Parsing Xi Jinping’s speech in the first 2025 issue of Qiushi, why both the substance of his message and his audience heighten concerns, and reactions to a new fleet of barges in Guangzhou that could factor into the PRC’s plans for Taiwan. At the end: U.S.-China updates, including a final rule from the U.S. on connected vehicles, proposed rules on AI chips, more alarms being sounded on PRC hacking, looming tech bro fissures, and the emissary from the PRC who may attend next week’s presidential inauguration.Subscribe to Sinocism here.Subscribe to Stratechery here.You can listen to the podcasts in the Substack app:Or click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.Related Readings:RMB signaling; Trade surplus; New US AI export rules; TikTok to become XTok? -- SinocismXi chats with European Council President Antonio Costa; US rule on connected vehicles; RMB talk; Supply chain binding; TikTok -- SinocismChina Weighs Sale of TikTok US to Musk as a Possible Option -- BloombergChina discussing using Elon Musk as broker in TikTok deal -- FTChina Officials Discuss Option of TikTok Sale to Elon Musk -- WSJUS netizens calling themselves ‘TikTok refugees’ migrate to Chinese social media app ahead of US Supreme Court ruling -- Global TimesTikTok crisis builds unlikely ‘cyberspace bridge’ between US and China -- SemaforXi in Qiushi - Comprehensively Advancing the Building of a Strong Country and the Great Cause of National Rejuvenation Through Chinese Modernization -- SinocismChina’s Trade Surplus Reaches a Record of Nearly $1 Trillion -- NYTChina Suddenly Building Fleet Of Special Barges Suitable For Taiwan Landings -- Naval NewsPost by John Culver -- John Culver on XCommerce Finalizes Rule to Secure Connected Vehicle Supply Chains from Foreign Adversary Threats -- BISU.S. Targets China With New AI Curbs, Overriding Nvidia’s Objections -- WSJFormer FBI Director Chris Way on 60 Minutes -- Face the Nation on XHow Chinese Hackers Graduated From Clumsy Corporate Thieves to Military Weapons -- WSJJan. 6, 2025: Giant Pandas Bao Li and Qing Bao Play In The Snow -- YouTubeTo add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player. Thanks for listening. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

We decided to do a short, free episode to discuss the Supreme Court’s decision to take up TikTok’s case before the January 19th deadline. Show Notes:On a bonus episode following up on Wednesday morning's show, Andrew and Bill react to the news—which broke later Wednesday morning—that the Supreme Court has granted cert to TikTok in its appeal of the D.C. Circuit's decision earlier this month upholding the Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. Topics include: A bit more hope for TikTok, revisiting the D.C. Circuit’s answer to the First Amendment question that’s now before the Supreme Court, various Trump unknowns, and a busy holiday season for Jones Day associates.You can listen to the podcast in the app:Or click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player. Related:Supreme Court Fast-Tracks TikTok Case in Face of Jan. 19 Deadline -- N.Y. Timeshttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/18/us/politics/supreme-court-tiktok-ban.htmlTIKTOK INC. AND BYTEDANCE LTD v. MERRICK GARLAND -- D.C. Circuithttps://media.cadc.uscourts.gov/opinions/docs/2024/12/24-1113-2088317.pdfTo add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.Thanks for listening. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a few updates on the Central Economic Work Conference, economic headwinds facing the PRC economy, including weaker-than-expected retail data, mixed data from the real estate market, and concerns from an economist assessing the conditions on the ground. From there: Reactions to last week's PLA exercises around Taiwan, divergent reactions from policymakers in Taipei and Washington, and a new report on the process behind the Biden Administration's latest round of updates to the semiconductor export controls. At the end: President-elect Trump on his relationship with Xi Jinping, TikTok takes its case to the Supreme Court, and the NBA (sort of) announces plans for a series of preseason games in Macau.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comOn today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the latest messaging from Beijing on efforts to stimulate the economy in 2025 and beyond. Topics include: Politburo language that echoes 2008, muted reactions from the mainland markets, why the ultimate policy decisions may not be made until the PRC has more clarity on Trump's intentions, and more. From there: Nvidia finds itself at the center of an antitrust probe, while the PRC restrictions on critical minerals are broader than initially thought, and drone components are now also being restricted from export to the US and Europe. At the end: Reviewing last Friday's verdict from the DC Circuit in TikTok v. Garland, and charting the next steps for TikTok and the Trump administration as January 19th approaches and TikTok faces a ban in the United States

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.Show Notes:On today’s show Andrew and Bill return from the holiday break with reactions to the latest round updates to the US export controls on semiconductors. Topics include: Why some think the updates are weaker than they should’ve been, takeaways from the past two years of chip controls, TikTok’s new hopes, and whether the U.S. has now passed the peak of tough-on-China policies. From there: The suspension of Admiral Miao Hua, member of the Central Military Commission and director of the Political Work Department of the PLA, reports (and denials) that Defense Minister Dong Jun is under investigation, and thoughts on the way into the CEWC after November comes and goes without a public announcement of a Politburo meeting. At the end: Trump threatens 100% tariffs over a BRICS currency that does not yet exist, Beijing continues to guess at Trump’s objectives with tariff policy, the latest on the US telecommunications hack, and good news for unfairly maligned grandmothers in the PRC.Subscribe to Sinocism here.Subscribe to Stratechery here.You can listen to the podcasts in the Substack app:Or click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.Related Readings:No mention of November Politburo meeting; US updates chip controls; Xi on the BRI; Lai in Hawaii; Miao Hua; US-China prisoner swap -- SinocismCEWC; Reactions to chip controls; Studying Xi Thought on Culture -- SinocismCommerce Strengthens Export Controls to Restrict China’s Capability to Produce Advanced Semiconductors for Military Applications -- BISBiden tightens tech controls on China as clock ticks down -- WaPoBiden’s Final Export Control Salvo Misfires by ChinaTalkThe True Impact of Allied Export Controls on the U.S. and Chinese Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment Industries -- CSIS- Greg AllenHow TikTok’s Trump Whisperer Changed Minds in Washington -- WSJHigh-ranking military official in China suspended and placed under investigation -- APChina’s defence minister placed under investigation for corruption -- FTChina probes top officer discipline ‘violations’ -- FTChina's Top Leaders to Meet to Discuss Stimulus Plans, Economic Targets for 2025 - BloombergTrump threatens 100% tariff on Brics nations if they try to replace dollar -- BBCFaced with Trump’s Tariff Outburst, Beijing is Looking For a Way In -- WSJEmerging Details of Chinese Hack Leave U.S. Officials Increasingly Concerned -- N.Y. TimesChina Tells Drama Creators: No More Evil Grandmothers -- Sixth ToneTo add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone. If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.Thanks for listening. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin by parsing the PRC readout from this weekend's meeting between XI Jinping and President Joe Biden, including the four red lines communicated by the PRC to the US, PRC language surrounding enhanced security ties between the US and pacific allies, and a farewell to the San Francisco vision. From there: Xi Jinping's message to APEC and the charm offensive planned for a Trump administration, China's calculus amid global climate initiatives, and extended thoughts on the recent mass casualties events around China and likely party responses. At the end: An update on the Trump transition, Howard Lutnick is picked to run the Commerce Department, and Apple and Google's calculus with respect to the TikTok law.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Friday's announcement from the NPC standing committee and more incremental stabilization measures from PRC leadership. Topics include: Foreign investors (again) hoping for more, "deepening reforms" and domestic consumption, the trade surplus with the US exceeds the trillion dollar threshold, and why …

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.Show Notes:On today’s show Andrew and Bill talk through a second Donald Trump presidency and what it might mean for US-China relations. Topics include: a note of congratulations from Xi Jinping Thursday morning, memories of the first Trump presidency, the calculus from both sides as tariffs loom, a larger toolkit of responses to trade policy for the PRC, potential intermediaries between Trump's administration and PRC leadership, and the strategic challenges and opportunities that China sees in a Trump administration. At the end: TikTok’s fate and whether Trump will save the app’s future in the United States, additional details on the Salt Typhoon telecommunications hack, and thoughts on the Biden administration's approach to the PRC, and the challenges facing any U.S. administration.Subscribe to Sinocism here.Subscribe to Stratechery here.You can listen to the podcasts in the Substack app:Or click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player.Related Readings:Trump 2.0 and the PRC -- Sinocism Xi congratulates Trump; Social work and stability; "Stimulus" rumors; October exports surge; TikTok; Hack of US telecoms -- Sinocism China congratulates Trump, says it respects America's choice -- Reuters China Learns How to Get Trump’s Ear: Through Jared Kushner -- NYT (2017) Spotlight: Xi-Trump meeting helps achieve much friendlier tone in China-U.S. ties: experts - Xinhua (2017)Donald Trump’s trade remedies reflect America’s troubled reality -- FT Markets Are Underpricing the Possibility of a U.S.-China Economic War -- Foreign Policy Chinese officials struggle to build ties with Donald Trump’s campaign -- FT Americans Who Want to Do Business in China Need to Meet This Man -- WSJ What Trump's win means for Ukraine, Middle East and China -- BBC Americans, your calls and texts can be monitored by Chinese spies -- WaPo Chinese hackers gained access to huge trove of Americans’ cell records -- Politico China Hack Enabled Vast Spying on U.S. Officials, Likely Ensnaring Thousands of Contacts -- WSJTrudeau government bans TikTok from operating in Canada — but Canadians can still use it -- CBCTikTok Sees Trump Victory As App’s Best Hope -- The Information To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.Thanks for listening. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an excellent report from Semi Analysis, and the state of the U.S. export controls on semiconductors and chipmaking equipment. Topics include: New reports of TSMC sales to Huawei-linked firms, the Commerce Department's oversight of chip controls, the various loopholes being routinely exploited by SMIC, Huawei and related entities, and enforcement questions for future administrations. From there: The NPC Standing Committee meeting is set for next week, the latest reports on what might be announced, and questions concerning the timing of the meeting, which will coincide with the US election. At the end: The PRC's crackdown on the private tutoring industry might be lifting, and reports that Chinese hackers targeted data from both Presidential campaigns.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping's visit to the16th BRICS Summit and Russia's rumored effort to build a platform for international payments that would be immune to Western sanctions. From there: The Power of Siberia-2 pipeline that may or may not materialize, waiting for news on the next meeting of the NPC standing committee, and one theory on how the US election could impact the timing of the next fiscal announcement. Then: Xi's visit to a PLA Rocket Force brigade in Anhui, the rhetoric Xi uses surrounding the PLA and its readiness, and thoughts on the continued buildout of the PRC nuclear arsenal. At the end: A note on Taiwan's energy security, clarity on the names of the National Zoo’s new pandas, and a flurry of reports and questions surrounding Huawei, TSMC and the Commerce Department's oversight of export controls on chipmaking equipment.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the PRC has sent two pandas to the National Zoo in Washington D.C., as Qing Bao, a 3-year-old year-old female, and Bao Li, a 3-year-old male, begin a 30-day quarantine in the Panda House. Then: Takeaways from Monday's Operation Joint Sword 2024B around Taiwan, including the strategic value of these military exercises for the PRC, and the implications of normalizing this pattern of behavior. From there: Parsing the “stimulus” news over the last several days, including the strain on local governments, why reports suggest that Xi and the central government are taking action to help them, and heightened scrutiny on overseas investments. At the end: Following up on Bill's conversation about the 2024 US Election, a Financial Times report on PRC educators ordered to surrender their passport, and an emailer provides a look at the new quality productive forces in dentistry.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the market's reactions to the NDRC press briefing on Tuesday, as Hong Kong saw all of last week's gains erased, while the PRC markets continued to see gains. Topics include: Misplaced expectations on the NDRC press conference, a National People's Congress meeting later in October that may articulate more concrete measures, and more thoughts on the continued volatility in the market themselves as well as commentary around the world. From there: An emailer has a question about a potential ByteDance IPO, a note on the broader concerns that persist in the PRC, and the EU passes tariffs on PRC EVs. At the end: A note on Taiwan National Day and the potential for an Operation Joint Sword 2024B, and a listener notes that Xi Jinping is leaving China far less frequently than he once did.

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.Show Notes: On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with revived animal spirits and the market response to the stimulus measures emerging from Beijing. Topics include: The September Politburo meeting as a sign of the government's commitment, why the capital markets may be a security priority for Xi, what might have motivated the sudden policy shift at the top, and parallels to the market responses in 2014. From there: The property sector and the multi-layered problem policymakers are attempting to solve, Blinken meets with Wang Yi in New York but still no word on a phone call between President Biden and Xi Jinping, a PRC nuclear submarine sinks, and a question about succession in the event of Xi's passing.To subscribe to Sinocism, click here.To subscribe to Stratechery, click here.Click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player. You can also listen to it in the Substack app, which has its own podcast player:Related Readings:Xi bull market 2.0?; More support for real estate; Wang Yi meets Blinken -- Sinocism September Politburo Meeting to Analyze and Study Current Economic Situation and Economic Work; Investors PumpedMore special bonds for fiscal stimulus?; Stock market surge; Water-filled submarine; MSS mad at New Zealand; Raising money by detaining private entrepreneurs -- Sinocism China stocks surge in biggest single-day rally since 2008 on stimulus cheer -- Reuters And Just Like That, China Did a Policy U-Turn (Again) -- WSJ China’s Housing Glut Collides With Its Shrinking Population -- WSJ Secretary Blinken’s Meeting with People’s Republic of China (PRC) Director of the CCP Central Foreign Affairs Commission and Foreign Minister Wang Yi -- U.S. Department of State China’s Newest Nuclear Submarine Sank, Setting Back Its Military Modernization -- WSJ China concealed sinking of newest nuclear submarine, U.S. says -- Nikkei Asia Xi Jinping’s Succession Dilemma -- Asia Society To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.Thanks for listening. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a raft of measures announced this week to stimulate the economy. Topics include: A pop to the stock market just in time for the PRC's 75th anniversary, stimulating mergers and acquisitions, whether this week's measures indicate more relief in the months to come, and more. Then: The disappearance of prominent economist Zhu Hengpeng, and a reminder of structural problems under Xi that have continued to intensify, regardless of monetary policy. At the end: The Ministry of Commerce announces that the owner of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger are under investigation, the US Commerce Department moves forward with a proposed rule that would effectively ban Chinese vehicles from the US, and a Substack post offers a taxonomy of Democrat China policies and questions about who might set the agenda for a Kamala Harris administration.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin by wishing a happy mid-autumn festival to all. Then: The PRC government implements the Decision on Gradually Raising the Statutory Retirement Ages. Why was this necessary, why were the changes made now, and what might this signal about the rest of goals and reforms announced at the Third Plenum? From there: The PRC blockade at Xianbin Jiao/Sabina Shoal appears to have succeeded as the Philippines returns the BRP Theresa Magbanua to port, and questions persist as to when, and how, the US might deter PRC tactics in the South China Sea. At the end: The latest lobbying effort surrounding updated export controls, Japan's negotiations with the US over export controls, the Biden administration takes on the de minimis loophole, and TikTok’s trial begins in DC.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to last week's arrest of Linda Sun, a former deputy chief of staff to governor Kathy Hochul. Topics include: The allegations contained in the Department of Justice indictment of Sun and her husband, the PRC efforts to influence local government officials around the world, the status of New York Consul General Huang Ping, and a report on the suppression of protestors during Xi's APEC visit in November. From there: Updates on the overcapacity concerns around the world, a Bloomberg story on a $6.5 trillion stock rout, and reactions to a thoughtful Substack post on deleveraging efforts and deflation concerns in the midst of recent turmoil. At the end: An update on Qin Gang that may or may not resolve lingering questions, and a new rock bottom for the PRC men’s soccer team.…

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.Show Notes: On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a look at the dialogue between National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Wang Yi. Topics include: Why meetings with Wang are valuable to the U.S. side, the progress the meetings have (and have not) yielded, and the strategy going forward. From there: Yet another clash between the PRC and the Philippines over the weekend, continued questions about when and how the U.S. may intervene, and updates on the next phase of chip controls as the Netherlands weighs a policy change, the PRC threatens retribution against Japan, and a cloud computing loophole persists. At the end: An emailer asks about Xi‘s speeches, and thoughts on the success of the best-selling video game in the world this week, Black Myth: Wukong.To subscribe to Sinocism, click here.To subscribe to Stratechery, click here.Click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player. You can also listen to it in the Substack app, which has its own podcast player:Related Readings:Xi on education; Escalating crisis at Sabina Shoal; FOCAC week; Toyota opposes more chip controls; A Gao Brother detained -- Sinocism Jake Sullivan meets Xi; Philippines resupplies ship at Sabina Shoal; ASML may stop servicing some PRC machines; HK sedition convictions -- SinocismThe inside story of the secret backchannel between the US and China -- Financial Times China, Philippines accuse each other of ramming ships in South China Sea -- Reuters If China wants Taiwan it should also take back land from Russia, president says -- Reuters As China’s power grows, candidates use it as attack line -- Washington Post ASML’s China Chip Business Faces New Curbs From Netherlands -- Bloomberg China Warns Japan of Retaliation for Possible New Chip Curbs -- Bloomberg Why China Is Starting a New Trade War -- WSJ There’s a China-Shaped Hole in the Global Economy -- WSJ China trade war ‘maybe unavoidable’, EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell warns -- SCMP China’s first global gaming hit sells millions in a week. An early investor shares what’s next -- CNBC Hit game Black Myth: Wukong faces backlash after telling players not to discuss ‘feminist propaganda’ -- The Guardian Black Myth: Wukong Final Trailer -- YouTube:To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.Thanks for listening. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill return from the Beidaihe break with an update on a raft of Xi rumors and a programming note. Then: Back to the South China Sea, where good news at Second Thomas Shoal has quickly been overshadowed by an aerial incident at Scarborough Shoal and Monday's collision between PRC coast guard vessels and the Philippine coast guard. From there: A Foreign Affairs article outlining Beijing's perspective on the 2024 Presidential election in the US, three categories of American China strategists, and questions about Kamala Harris' approach to China. At the end: The scrutiny surrounding Tim Walz and his history of engagement with China, reports of a proposed rule on Chinese connected vehicle software, and a LiDAR company is removed from the Pentagon's blacklist.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today’s show Andrew and Bill start with a programming note for the next few weeks and various questions for the next few months of the Biden Administration. Topics include: A meeting between Secretary of State of Anthony Blinken and Wang Yi, more threats of escalating sanctions if the PRC supports Russian war efforts, what Kamala Harris China policies might look like, and whether the Commerce Department will take action on connected vehicles before November. From there: Rumors of Huawei’s demise were greatly exaggerated, and why sanctions may have focused PRC energy without achieving their intended goal. At the end: Quick reactions to Tuesday’s Politburo meeting, some very cautious optimism at Second Thomas Shoal, and surveying the PRC swimming controversy that came to light in April and continues to percolate this week in Paris.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the Third Plenum resolution, Xi’s explainer, and its reception among the investment community and China observers. Topics include: Why Xi staying the course should surprise no one, the significance of the five-year timeline set forth for reforms, specific domestic problems alongside broad rhetoric ab…

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with an overview of the third plenum and its significance before turning to Thursday's communique in the wake of the plenum. Topics include: Official news on Qin Gang and Li Shangfu twelve months after they each disappeared, the wide-range of goals throughout the communique, questions as we wait for implementation, and the party's stated goal of completing its reform tasks by 2029. From there: The rumors swirling around Xi Jinping and his health this week, and follow-up to the controversy surrounding edible oils. At the end: Reactions to President Trump's comments on Taiwan and America as an insurance company, and two stories on the state of the Biden chip policy.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes: On today’s show Andrew and Bill prepare for next week’s Third Plenum by talking through expectations and themes to watch. Topics include: The signals from April's Xinhua readout announcing the plenary session, remembering third plenums of the past, why Common Prosperity is on the agenda, why this year's plenum may be the clearest articulation of Xi’s vision for the Party and the PRC, and examining some of the ongoing domestic issues that the Party may (or may not) try to address with reforms. At the end: A scandal over edible oils, the market for silicone masks, fierce competition in the bubble tea market, and checking in with Zach Edey

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.Show Notes: On today’s show Andrew and Bill are joined by Raja Krishnamoorthi, Democratic representative for the 8th District of Illinois, and the ranking member of the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party. Topics include: The Select Committee's work to draft and pass legislation to force the divestiture of TikTok, investigations into American VC investments in PLA-linked PRC companies, how to tackle IP theft in tech, searching for fentanyl progress since the Biden-Xi visit in November, PRC behavior in the South China Sea, and more.To subscribe to Sinocism, click here.To subscribe to Stratechery, click here.Click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player. You can also listen to it in the Substack app, which has its own podcast player:Related Readings:House Passes Bill to Force TikTok Sale From Chinese Owner or Ban the App -- N.Y. TimesTikTok’s hearing from hell -- Politico How TikTok Was Blindsided by U.S. Bill That Could Ban It -- WSJ Senators push to declassify TikTok briefings -- The Verge American VC Firms Investing Billions into PRC Companies Fueling the CCP's Military, Surveillance State, and Uyghur Genocide -- The Select Committee on the CCPGallagher, Krishnamoorthi Call for Urgent Action to Reduce U.S. Dependence on PRC Foundational Chips -- The Select Committee on the CCPInvestigation Findings: The CCP's Role in the Fentanyl Crisis -- The Select Committee on the CCPChina throwing a ‘temper tantrum’ with Taiwan drills, key Democrat says -- Semafor To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.Thanks for listening. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the latest incident at Second Thomas Shoal, where the Chinese Coast Guard blocked an attempted resupply of the Sierra Madre in a standoff that caused damage to Philippine Naval vessels and several injuries to members of the Navy. Topics include: Another escalation in a devolving relationship, whether…

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes: On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Wednesday's announcement that the EU will increase tariffs on electric vehicles imported from the PRC, including potential responses from Beijing, the fissures among the EU coalition, the reality on the ground in and around Europe, and the war in Ukraine looming over the decisions from EU policymakers. From there: An attack on four U.S. teachers in Jilin, the reactions among commentators in the U.S., and life for Americans living in the PRC. At the end: Xi Jinping asks entrepreneurs where all of China's billion-dollar startups have gone, questions about how Apple's AI plans might work in China, and an extended discussion of corruption among the party and the PLA, the baseline opacity of investigations, and a few memorable cases from the past.

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.Show Notes: On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with PRC messaging at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, including the US responses to new Defense Minister Dong Jun, how neighboring countries perceive the divergence between PRC rhetoric and PRC actions, and takeaways from Operation Joint Sword-2024A. From there: Parsing Xi's January speech on "New Quality Productive Forces" in advance of the Third Plenum, overcapacity is becoming a political problem more than an economic debate, and a Financial Times story sheds light on the state of Russia-China negotiations surrounding the Siberia 2 pipeline. At the end: Bill remembers his time in China during the spring of 1989, thoughts on the structural forces that have suppressed memories of June 4 inside China, and lessons that the Party has internalized in the decades that followed. On June 15 I will raise the monthly price for Sinocism from $15 to $20 and the yearly price from $168 to $218. The yearly rate for groups of five or more people will increase from $135 to $175. Prices will NOT increase for existing paid subscribers as of June 15, so if you subscribe before then you will lock in the current rate.This is only the second time I have raised prices since launching in 2017, and there are many subscribers still paying the original $11/mo or $118/yr rate. I like to reward loyalty. To subscribe to Sinocism, click here.To subscribe to Stratechery, click here.Click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player. You can also listen to it in the Substack app, which has its own podcast player:Related Readings:Xi on New Quality Productive Forces; Shangri-La Dialogue; PRC-Russia; Crackdown on "money exchange gangs" -- Sinocism Joint Sword-2024A around Taiwan; Xi in Shandong; G7; Huawei -- Sinocism China hits out at ‘aggressive’ Taiwan for military build-up -- Financial Times A tale of dialogues at the Shangri-La: Getting the Chinese message across in various ways -- The Straits Times Unleashing “new quality productive forces”: China’s strategy for technology-led growth -- Brookings -Arthur KroeberThread by Michael Pettis -- X Russia-China gas pipeline deal stalls over Beijing’s price demands -- Financial Times Watching China in Europe—June 2024 -- German Marshall Fund China says it will not join Swiss peace conference on Ukraine -- Reuters Zelenskyy accuses China of helping Russia sabotage peace summit -- Politico China: Closing Off Memory of Tiananmen Massacre -- Human Rights Watch Statement From the Tiananmen Mothers on the 35th Anniversary of the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre by HUMAN RIGHTS IN CHINA Keeping the Memory of June Fourth Alive - Lingua Sinica On the 35th Anniversary of Tiananmen Square -- U.S. State Dept Giant pandas returning to DC’s National Zoo -- Fox 5 DC To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.Thanks for listening. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with President William Lai’s inauguration in Taiwan, including the PRC responses we've seen so far, recent activity around Kinmen island, and a Bloomberg report that ASML’s EUV machines can be shut down remotely in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. From there: Friday’s announcement of relief plans for the real estate sector, and more thoughts on the challenges facing policymakers as they look to revive consumer sentiment. Then: Questions on the People's Bank of China, a recent push into gold purchases, EV capacity, tariffs on foreign cars, and the latest Central Committee member to be investigated for corruption. At the end: Temu and Shein inspire a Saturday Night Live skit, and Rep. Mike Gallagher is formally sanctioned by the PRC.Click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player. You can also listen to it in the Substack app, which has its own podcast player:Related Readings:New Taiwan President; PRC reactions; Real estate; New bull market in Shanghai?; EU trade threat -- Sinocism https://sinocism.com/p/new-taiwan-president-prc-reactions"Pillar of shame" for Lai; Wang Yi at SCO; Gallagher sanctioned; XiAI; Guo Youcai; Ben Lim -- Sinocism https://sinocism.com/p/pillar-of-shame-for-lai-wang-yi-atFull text of President Lai Ching-te's inaugural address -- Focus Taiwan https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202405200007 Mainland says Lai sends "dangerous signal" in speech as Taiwan's new leader -- Xinhua https://english.news.cn/20240520/d9024fcff39b4a7ba6a97a9dda5804d0/c.html China has a point about Taiwan’s new leader -- FT https://www.ft.com/content/0e0ed54f-bc40-45b1-ac36-1d8d51035d7d?shareType=nongiftThousands protest against contentious Taiwan parliament reforms -- Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/protests-taiwan-parliament-pushes-contentious-reforms-2024-05-21/ Record number of Chinese ships enter Taiwan waters near Kinmen island -- RFA https://www.rfa.org/english/news/southchinasea/china-kinmen-intrusion-05102024034553.html/ampRFA China's property support measures disappoint -- Reuters https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/most-chinese-developers-shares-fall-despite-latest-support-measures-2024-05-20/What China’s central bank and Costco shoppers have in common -- The Economist https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/04/11/what-chinas-central-bank-and-costco-shoppers-have-in-commonASML and TSMC Can Disable Chip Machines If China Invades Taiwan -- Bloomberghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-21/asml-tsmc-can-disable-chip-machines-if-china-invades-taiwan?sref=5KSwFgaYHow China’s EV overcapacity has come to a head after 15 years, and what’s in store for the industrial policy race with US and EU -- SCMP https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3262505/how-chinas-ev-overcapacity-has-come-head-after-15-years-and-whats-store-industrial-policy-race-usChina Has Gotten the Trade War It Deserves -- The Atlantic https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/05/china-tariffs-electric-vehicles-trade-war/678385/China Hints at Retaliation in Trade Clash With Europe -- Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-18/china-state-media-warns-of-retaliation-on-eu-subsidy-probes?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&sref=5KSwFgaYChina Says Agriculture Minister Tang Renjian Is Under Investigation -- Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-18/china-says-agriculture-minister-tang-is-under-investigation?sref=5KSwFgaYChina sanctions former Rep. Mike Gallagher, a fierce critic of Beijing -- NBC News https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/china-sanctions-former-rep-mike-gallagher-rcna153218Hudson’s Mike Gallagher’s Statement in Response to CCP Sanctions -- The Hudson Institute https://hudsoninstitute.cmail19.com/t/i-e-auktutk-tjhhydiyp-y/Fast Fashion Ad - SNL -- YouTube To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.Thanks for listening.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes: On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with an overview of the new tariffs announced by President Biden this week, including the implications for America's green energy industries, the evolving scope of global competitive realities, and a variety of questions for future US policymakers. From there: Why Beijing may be reluctant to issue a substantive response to US tariffs while the EU refines its own tariff policies on EVs, and Vladimir Putin's visit to China highlights the delicate balance Beijing has tried to strike between capitalizing on the relationship with Russia and maintaining its ties to Europe. At the end: The many hurdles facing policymakers trying to restore the real estate sector, a New York Times op-ed about TikTok, an update on the Michael Chang documentary that was delayed last year, and Pink Floyd in Sichuan.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Xi Jinping’s visit to France, Serbia and Hungary, where topics included cognac, "so-called overcapacity", the war in Ukraine, and Ambassador Lu Shaye twelve months after his comments about post-Soviet states. From there: The People’s Daily and other party media went dark for much of the day on Tuesday, and the Biden administration does not renew export licenses that allow Intel and Qualcomm to supply Huawei with semiconductors for computers and mobile phones. At the end: The latest twist in the dispute at Second Thomas Shoal, an Australian helicopter takes evasive action to avoid the PLA, ByteDance and TikTok take their fight to court, and a book rec for anyone interested in the origins of the GDP metric.

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.Show Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a surprise, 24-hour trip to China for Elon Musk, and a Sunday meeting with Premier Li Qiang. Topics include: The Musk meeting as PRC response to mounting scrutiny in the US, the benefits to both sides of the Tesla-PRC relationship, and why this week's news may not answer Tesla's long term questions in the Chinese market. From there: Parsing the readout from the April Politburo meeting, including insights into how leadership sees the economy now, an announcement for the long-awaited Third Plenum, and policy changes that may or may not materialize in the months to come. At the end: Takeaways from Secretary of State Blinken's visit to Beijing last week, Xi Jinping prepares to travel to the EU amid a flurry of investigations into PRC entities and actors, and an emailer asks about the veracity of officially reported PRC economic data. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's trip to Beijing and Shanghai this week, including reports that the Blinken plans to warn PRC counterparts about their continued commercial support of Russia's defense industry, and additional reports that the U.S. has drafted sanctions that could be levied against Chinese banks facilitating that support. From there: The many flashpoints that have emerged since Xi Jinping and Joe Biden shared their "San Francisco Vision," talking points from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in advance of Blinken's visit, and interesting language from Speaker of the House Mike Johnson late last week. Then: The House TikTok legislation is about to become law, what TikTok may do next, and questions surrounding the PLA's new Information Support Force. At the end: A recent scandal for Chinese swimming inspires memories from the '90s and commentary from Ambassador Rahm Emanuel.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the meeting between Xi Jinping and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, including muted messaging on overcapacity concerns, Germany’s investments in the PRC market, and a request for Xi Jinping to broker peace in Ukraine. From there: Economic data from Q1 in China, and a question about Beijing's calculus in the face of mounting tension between Iran and Israel. At the end: National Security Day and more anecdotes from the MSS, memories from Bill’s time translating Chinese literature in the early 90s, journalist Vicky Xu shines a light on transnational harassment in Australia, and Fortune Magazine delivers the latest blow to TikTok's claims of independence from ByteDance.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen's visit to China, including what her meetings may or may not accomplish and the likely next steps for the Biden Administration in the months to come. From there: As the US and Europe grapple with the threat of cheaper PRC goods in key industries, how might China respond to raised tariffs around the world? Will there be consequences for continued support of Russia's defense industrial base? And how realistic is the deterrence strategy articulated by Ambassador Rahm Emanuel this week? At the end: A question about Xi's vision for the PRC financial system, the deepening partnership between the US and Japan, the US and allies conduct naval exercises in the South China Sea, and a question about Tesla's 0% financing for PRC customers.

This episode of Sharp China is free for everyone.Show Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Tuesday’s phone call between President Biden and President Xi, including the PRC rhetoric surrounding US trade and tech policies, and messages to both domestic audiences and allies. From there: Janet Yellen’s visit to China and her evolving stance on PRC exports, the March Politburo meeting comes and goes without plenum news, Xi meets with U.S. business leaders, and Harvard’s Graham Allison emerges as a potential Henry Kissinger successor. At the end: Escalating rhetoric and the latest confrontation between the PRC and the Philippines, Tesla’s latest sales numbers and structural challenges in the PRC, and the debut of 3 Body Problem on Netflix. To subscribe to Sinocism and gain access to all podcast episodes as well as every issue of Sinocism from Bill Bishop, go here.To subscribe to Stratechery Plus and receive daily writing from Ben Thompson and daily podcasts from Andrew Sharp, go here.Click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player. You can also listen to it in the Substack app, which has its own podcast player:Related Readings:Xi-Biden call; More US tech controls coming?; NDRC on equipment and consumer upgrades; Another Justice Minister goes down -- Sinocism March Politburo meeting; PRC-Philippines tensions; Xi's meeting with US VIPs -- Sinocism Joe Biden and Xi Jinping have ‘candid’ phone call in first engagement since November -- FT US and EU officials talk China in Belgium -- Politico EU Janet Yellen Missed the First ‘China Shock.’ Can She Stop the Second? -- WSJ China's Xi meets American CEOs in bid to boost confidence in ailing economy -- NBC News 'China and US are inseparable, conjoined Siamese twins:' Graham Allison - Global TimesThread by Graham Allison -- Graham Allison on X Professor Graham ‘Thucydides Trap’ Allison’s Three-Body Problem -- China Heritage China coast guard water cannons Philippine resupply ship -- Joseph Morong on XTesla’s Shrinking China Market Share Compounds Global Woes -- Bloomberg [Three-Body] EP01 | Tencent Video -- YouTubeTo add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:Click on the "listen on" button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.If you use the Substack app it has a built- in podcast player.Thanks for listening. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes: On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the Ministry of State Security providing its interpretation of the Cybersecurity Law. Topics include: The odd timing of this message as debate roils over TikTok, the legal and regulatory framework that’s emerged under Xi, and the lack of anonymity on the PRC internet. From there: The Hong Kong legislature passes Article 23 faster than expected, and an update on the state of the TikTok legislation as the Senate prepares for an intel briefing on Wednesday. Then: Lessons from the solar industry as domestic suppliers in the EU and US struggle to compete with the PRC, Liu Jianchao offers clarifying commentary on China's approach to the Global South, Rahm Emanuel talks to Semafor, and Zach Edey takes center stage in the NCAA Tournament.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comShow Notes:On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with a week of surprising progress for the Protecting Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. With the House set to vote Wednesday, they discuss the origins of the bill and months of work behind the scenes, TikTok’s now-infamous in-app alert, and why Beijing is likely to oppose any divestment plan if the bill eventually becomes law. From there: The factions in Washington that are opposing this bill, regulatory obstacles for American Internet companies in China, alignment or lack thereof between US business interests and Beijing, and what the next few months for TikTok and Congress could signify. At the end: A report that Li Qiang won’t attend this year’s China Development Forum, Mercedes CEO Ola Källenius lobbies for lower tariffs in the EU, and a few final notes from the Two Sessions.

Show Notes:On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the Two Sessions, including the work report from Premier Li Qiang, what to make of the 5% GDP growth target for 2024, the cancellation of Li's press conference, Xi Jinping’s visit to the Jiangsu breakout session and his message on new productive forces and economic development, and the evolution of the Two Sessions in recent years. From there: The latest exchange between the Philippines and the PRC in the South China Sea, the Biden White House announces an investigation into Chinese EVs, and there’s a bipartisan bill in the House that will renew the TikTok conversation in D.C.To subscribe to Sinocism and gain access to all podcast episodes as well as every issue of Sinocism from Bill Bishop, click here.To subscribe to Stratechery Plus and receive daily writing from Ben Thompson and daily podcasts from Andrew Sharp, click here.Related Readings:No big surprises in the NPC work report; Xi talks new productive forces with Jiangsu delegation; Second Thomas Shoal; TikTok -- Sinocism Two sessions; Talking up the economy’s bright prospects; US-China; "Pseudo-middle class trap" -- Sinocism China’s Premier Steps Deeper Into Xi’s Shadow -- WSJ Xi’s One-Man Rule Over China’s Economy Is Spurring Unrest -- Bloomberg Philippines says crew hurt, vessels damaged by China Coast Guard -- ABS-CBN News Video from Armed Forces of the Philippines -- Barnaby Lo 吳宗鴻 on XStatement from President Biden on Addressing National Security Risks to the U.S. Auto Industry -- The White House US Probes Security Risks in Chinese Cars, Mulls Curbs -- Bloomberg China's global auto strength: Why cost advantage is key for Chinese automakers -- YouTubeLawmakers introduce bill that would punish app stores for hosting TikTok -- Verge TikTok may have more to worry about this time. Tweeting misinformation about the draft bill will not help the companyThe draft bill, heading for markup Thursday - Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act - Punchbowl News This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit sinocism.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit sinocism.comOn today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with an overview of the CPPCC, the NPC and what to expect as the Two Sessions begin this weekend. Topics include: Xi’s recent absence from public view, the resignation of Qin Gang as an NPC delegate, Li Shangfu’s removal from the party CMC’s official website, Li Qiang’s first work report as premier, and why Xi Jinping’s is unlikely to echo last year’s comments on the US. From there: Reactions to the I-SOON leaks as evidence of PRC hacking continues to circulate around the world, while Congress has questions for Elon Musk about SpaceX in Taiwan and whether the company is fulfilling its obligations to the US government. At the end: News on the Village Basketball Association, Joe Tsai’s Brooklyn Nets celebrate Lunar New Year, and Pandas are coming back to San Diego and (probably) Washington D.C.