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Insider Trading on Wars: A Loophole in Prediction Markets

Insider Trading on Wars: A Loophole in Prediction Markets

Salt Lake City News Today | 2 Min News | The Daily News Now! · The Daily News Now!

March 29, 20261m 29s

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Show Notes

Prediction markets allow traders to bet on real-world events, including classified operations like wars or terror attacks, potentially risking national security. Despite being banned in some states, these markets exploit a loophole in the Commodity Exchange Act, enabling big players like FanDuel to bet on elections or celebrity events. Thirty-six state attorneys general are suing to close this loophole. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has only blocked shady contracts twice since 2010, both on elections. Kalshi sued after a denial and won, leading to a surge in wild bets. A trader recently made over $400,000 before news of Venezuelas Maduros arrest. Congress is considering bills like HR7840 to ban trades on wars, assassinations, elections, and crime, ensuring markets remain legitimate and free from insider leaks or manipulation.

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