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Show Notes
Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner break down MLB betting for Friday.
📉 Fading Mitch Keller: Keller has a 5.75 ERA against Cincinnati in his career and has allowed 3 ER in each start post-All-Star break.
🎯 Brewers as Best Bet: Brandon Woodruff has 37 K and 4 BB in 28.1 IP with a 0.64 WHIP, and the Brewers are undefeated in his 6 starts this season.
🔼 Astros Momentum: Hunter Brown is back in form with 12 IP, 2 ER in last two outings. Yankees' reliance on home runs a liability.
🚀 Mariners Undervalued: Seattle at home with Luis Castillo is priced cheaply against a travel-weary Rays team, with Drew Rasmussen likely limited.
🔥 Guardians Surging: Cleveland swept the Mets and is climbing in the AL Central. Tanner Bibee is a concern, but Aaron Civale is in great form.
🧨 Rangers Underdog Value: Merrill Kelly is a strong underdog play vs. Phillies; Texas is 10-2 at home since the All-Star break.
🔒 Twins Depend on Joe Ryan: Joe Ryan is 7-0, 1.30 ERA in 9 starts vs. KC. Royals pitcher Seth Lugo has 8 BB in last 2 starts.
🧮 Over in Arizona: Rockies’ Gomber and Diamondbacks’ Gallen create a perfect storm for hitting; game total over 9 is attractive.
💰 Fade the Dodgers: Dodgers always overpriced; Jays’ offense is rolling, and Scherzer's recent form is solid.
💥 Nick Pivetta Dominance: At home, Pivetta is 7-0 with a 1.99 ERA in 12 starts, making the Padres a strong play.
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Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh [2:45–6:23]
Griffin leans Reds at -103, citing Chase Burns’ high ceiling and Keller’s 5.75 ERA vs. CIN. Munaf notes the Pirates’ offense is inconsistent and backs the Reds ML. -
Astros vs Yankees [6:24–10:11]
Both skeptical of Cam Schlittler’s polish. Hunter Brown’s rebound form (12 IP, 2 ER) is encouraging. Yankees’ offense is reliant on HRs. Both favor Astros ML. -
A’s vs Orioles [10:12–14:09]
Both skeptical of JT Ginn’s consistency. Orioles’ young core still dangerous. Orioles’ home performance (5–2 post-ASB) leans Munaf to take the home team. -
Angels vs Tigers [14:10–17:03]
Griffin calls -312 for DET “ridiculous.” Skubal’s Cy Young season isn't duplicating; Hendricks has quietly been solid. Both like the under (7.5 or F5 under 4). -
Marlins vs Braves [17:04–21:23]
Cabrera’s 1 ER in each of last 3 starts vs Elder’s 6.54 ERA at home makes MIA appealing. Both back the Marlins ML and expect runs. -
Guardians vs White Sox [21:24–24:46]
Guardians are hot, but Aaron Civale has 3 straight shutouts. Munaf notes CHW are 7–2 SU at home on Fridays. Recommends White Sox 1H ML. -
Phillies vs Rangers [24:47–28:10]
Munaf emphasizes Rangers’ 10–2 home record post-ASB. Kelly a great dog. Both favor under 7.5 and like TEX ML at +116. -
Mets vs Brewers [28:11–31:15]
Woodruff has a 0.64 WHIP and Brewers are 6–0 in his starts. Senga giving up 4 ER in 2 of last 3. Both hammer Brewers ML (Munaf’s Best Bet). -
Royals vs Twins [31:25–35:14]
Joe Ryan’s domination of KC (1.30 ERA in 9 starts) vs. Lugo’s wildness (8 BB in 2 games). Munaf likes Twins ML and F5 under. -
Rays vs Mariners [46:39–50:15]
Mariners -125 is Griffin’s Best Bet. Seattle plays well at home, and Rasmussen’s limited innings vs. a playoff-hunting SEA team makes M’s the play.
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