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Show Notes
Philip Tetlock’s research on the qualities of Super-forecasters explains why forecasting is hard and how diverse models and systematic thinking can help close the gap.
We discuss:
- Improving predictions by regularly updating data
- The Brier Score and why it really matters
- Why larger samples permit more accurate short term predictions
- The difficulties with the “Long Now” narrative
Hosted by Adam Butler, Mike Philbrick and Rodrigo Gordillo of ReSolve Global.