Real Vision: Finance & Investing

What’s driving the modern movement toward protectionist tariffs and trade wars? Where will it all lead, and what lessons can we draw from history? Geopolitics consultant Peter Zeihan and historian Marc Palen discuss. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant and Alex trade airline seats, trend followers and Wu Tang Clan fans. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Will it soon be gold’s time to shine once again? Rick Rule of Sprott Global Resources, Simon Mikhailovich Tocqueville Bullion Reserve and Ronald-Peter Stoeferle of Incrementum AG weigh in. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant and Alex trade tennis, pant-ripping lasers and flighty models. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stock market volatility has surged to levels unseen in years. So is the era of unusual market calm now over and done with? Or was this latest episode just a temporary bit of turmoil? Steve Diggle of Volpes Investment Management and Dennis Davitt of Harvest Volatility Management weigh in. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant and Alex trade Apple, mediocre Olympic athletes and Jennifer Lawrence. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Ken Kurson has been many things: A reporter, a rocker, a newspaper editor and a cryptocurrency evangelist. He’s also a supporter and occasional speechwriter for President Donald Trump. This week, he sits down with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss his varied careers – and to explain why he is a big believer in the current president. Plus, in the “Things I Got Wrong” segment, Nick Colas of DataTrek Research discusses the importance of having confidence at market turning points. And in the long/short segment, Grant and Alex trade Rolls-Royce SUVs, terrifying robots and mass-media volatility coverage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Bond prices appear to be in the midst of a striking dive. So can we blame bonds for the stock market drop? Is the decades-long bond bull market finally over? And where will the 10-year Treasury yield finally settle out? Jeffrey Snider of Alhambra Partners and Greg Weldon of “Weldon Live” join to discuss. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant Williams, Alex Rosenberg and James Gibb trade volatility, Tesla and network TV. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The crypto craze has made dedicated investors and traders out of many people who’ve never before given much thought to finance. What’s driven those people into bitcoin and other tokens, where do they see prices going, and how are they reacting to the recent plunge? We talk to a wide swath of crypto investors around the world to find out. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade sleep, Jeremy Corbyn and home-made New Zealand islands. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With China’s plenum out of the way, what’s ahead for the Chinese economy? How much influence does the government have, and how successful has the transition to a consumer-based economy been? Finally, what does it all mean for the global growth and inflation outlook? Tian Yang of Variant Perception and Louis Gave of Gavekal weigh in. Plus, in the long/short segment, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade ICOs, Liberian leadership and lifeguard buffness. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A year after Donald Trump’s inauguration, we take a close look at the president’s performance. How well has President Trump done? Should market bulls thank him for the recent rally? And how great is the risk of a significant policy misstep? Experts R.P. Eddy and Pippa Malmgren join to discuss. Plus, in the Long/Short segment, Grant and Alex trade felons, bitcoin and reality. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

At long last, a Tesla bull steps up to retort Mark Spiegel’s bear case on the electric car company. Rob Maurer, host of the Tesla Daily podcast, makes an impassioned case for both the company and the stock. Plus, Grant Williams and Alex Rosenberg trade Nike, Hedy Lamarr and Scottish spiders in this week’s Long/Short segment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Grant looks back at some of his favorite moments from the podcast, reflecting on some of the boldest calls, sharpest insights and most meaningful stories he’s heard. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Is an inflation spike around the corner – and if so, what effects could that have? To find out, Grant speaks to Jawad Mian of Stray Reflections, Jonathan Pain of the Pain Report, and Peter Boockvar of Bookmark Advisors. Each gives his take on where we are in terms of inflation now, and where we could be headed in the year ahead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Grant and James are joined by two of the most seasoned volatility traders in the world, David Dredge of City Financial and Chris Cole of Artemis Capital Management, to discuss the curious absence of volatility in 2017 and whether they see a return to more unpredictable moves in financial markets during 2018. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Mark Mahaney of RBC Capital Markets offers his positive assessment of the outlook for the big tech giants who have led the market rally while Jesse Felder, author of The Felder Report and host of the podcast Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom returns to Adventures in Finance with some words of caution as he sees signs that both public opinion and the companies’ own performance are beginning to turn Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Peter Atwater (Financial Insyghts) and Ben Hunt (Salient) are masters of how to measure confidence in both the economy and in markets. In conversation with Grant Williams, they break down their methods, and share some surprising insights about where we stand right now. Peter Atwater explains how “hubris” led him astray in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On the eve of the Holiday shopping season, Stephanie Pomboy (MacroMavens) and Dana Telsey (Telsey Advisory Group) stake very different positions about the health of the retail space and the consumer. Then Jim Sullivan (Green Street Advisors) explains what it all means for the real estate sector. Plus, Mark Spiegel (Stanphyl Capital) discusses a key mistake he made early in his investing career and the valuable lesson he learned as a corporate insider. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Three contributors to the Real Vision Think Tank discuss their views on the most important areas upon which investors should currently be focusing. Maleeha Bengali of MB Commodity Corner, Tony Greer of TG Macro and Larry McDonald of The Bear Traps Report discuss base metals markets, crude oil, Chinese debt and data and the tug-of-war that is the Trump Tax Plan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Is this a fork in the Fed’s road? President Trump has nominated Jerome Powell to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Whether Powell will continue down the same path of Janet Yellen, and Ben Bernanke before her, remains an open question. Danielle DiMartino Booth, a former advisor to Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher and author of Fed Up, says that Powell, in combination with other new faces at the central bank, could be poised to effect some serious change. Miles Kimball, professor of economics at the University of Colorado Boulder, isn’t so sure. The real debate, however, is how Fed ought to operate, particularly once the next crisis crops its head. Booth and Kimball emerge as polar opposites here, with Booth advising a retreat from unconventional policies designed to stimulate the economy, and Kimball recommending that the Fed take interest rates sharply negative in the next downturn. More broadly, Kimball is a fan of rigorous action from the Fed, while Booth would like to see more humility in the Eccles Building. Once the sides have been staked in the Fed debate, Booth takes her leave of this planet, and tells us what she would bring on a trip to Mars. And speaking of humility, Kimball closes out the episode by offering up something he got wrong. Interestingly, it concerns not finance, but fat. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Amidst a shift in the narrative surrounding Tesla after a series of production issues and mounting losses, Mark B. Spiegel of Stanphyl Capital Partners makes the bear case for the electric car manufacturer and explains why increasing competition from a series of luxury carmakers, advances in battery technology and the increasing scepticism surrounding Elon Musk’s outlandish promises are combining to set the company up for an uncomfortable ride… in the wrong direction. Mark then bravely climbs aboard one of Musk’s Space X rockets to Mars and lets us know what he takes with him. And in Things I Got Wrong, Dr. Pippa Malmgren offers two valuable lessons she learned about having the courage of your convictions (and what to do when you are proven wrong) and how making certain compromises in a man’s world are perhaps not the right path for a young, ambitious woman to take. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The origins of bitcoin predate most people’s understanding and this week, with the aid of Trace Meyer, of The Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast, and Bruce Kleinman, author of The Bitcoin Tutorial, we trace the rise of bitcoin and the blockchain from their unceremonious unveiling to the world in a simple, pseudonymous 8-page White Paper in October 2008 to the recent hard and soft forks. We look at the architecture and the technology underpinning this revolutionary protocol, decode some of the more complex ideas and, amidst a tsunami of ICO offerings, try to assess the future for cryptocurrencies in general and bitcoin in particular. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On the 30th anniversary of Black Monday, we recreate the events of that tumultuous time through the eyes of people who found themselves trying to navigate the biggest drop in Dow Jones history. The legendary Art Cashin takes us behind the scenes at the NYSE, while Bill Fleckenstein, David Hay, Michael Lewitt and Greg Weldon share their personal stories alongside Michael Oliver and Trader Vic – Victor Sperandeo who famously predicted the crash a few weeks before the event. Lastly, we hear the incredible story of hedge fund manager Richard Pomboy whose foresight saved his investors millions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Dr. Harald Malmgren, senior advisor to four US Presidents (Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon & Ford) joins Grant to recount his experiences in the White House and Pentagon during the thirteen days of the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 – a period where the world came within hours of a full-scale nuclear war. Harald explains how he and Defense Secretary Robert McNamara’s famous ‘Whizz Kids’ were tasked with not only helping find a solution to the biggest diplomatic crisis of the Cold War, but design a strategic plan for conflict should the unthinkable happen. From the confusion caused in Congress by the concept of Megadeaths to the people who stepped up behind the scenes, Harald takes us inside the Kennedy White House at its most fraught and shares how today’s tensions on the Korean Peninsula look to a man who has stood on the edge of oblivion. In our “Things I Got Wrong” segment, Forest For The Trees Founder and President, Luke Gromen, shares a pair of mistakes he made either side of the 2008 Credit Crisis and outlines how they changed the way he invests today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A truly insightful and at times hard-hitting interview with Preston Pysh, host of The Investors Podcast. What’s it like to go from commanding a company of Apache helicopters in Afghanistan, as part of the 101st Airborne, to navigating the markets on wall street and co-hosting one of the world’s top investing podcasts? What can you learn from combat experience that can help maintain mental fortitude as a trader? We also send Preston to Mars and find out just what he can’t live without. In our “Things I Got Wrong” segment, Tim Price, from Price Value Partners in London… explains how a strongly-held, post-2008 conviction got him into trouble. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Grant Williams welcomes Jim Grant- legendary financial author and founder of the twice monthly journal on financial markets, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. Together they discuss Jim’s rise to literary prominence from the time he was a gunner on the USS Hornet at the age of 17 through to his founding of Grant’s. We learn his views on the incredible rate increases of the mid 1980’s, what the end game would be for Central Banks, what he would do if he was FED chairman, when he thought the devaluation of the Dollar really began, and what would he take with him on a one-way trip to mars? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Investing legend Jim Rogers joins Grant Williams to talk about the defining moments in his life which took him to Wall Street in the 1960s and to Russia and China on a motorbike in the 1980s. Jim talks about how important non-consensus thinking has been throughout his career, explains how the current troubles in North Korea could provide the investment opportunity of a lifetime … and let’s Hugh Hendry know exactly what’s in his pocket. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Always candid, often hilarious, Hugh talks openly about his experience in 2008 when his fund returned nearly 50% as markets melted down around him, about the fear he confronts every time he puts on a trade, his typically canny tactical approach to debating the fellow Scot he calls ‘The Best Speaker in the World’ and takes us back in time to a party in Moscow at an Oligarch’s apartment when he discovered the secret contents of an investing legend’s trouser pocket… Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Season 2 of Adventures in Finance kicks off with Kyle Bass joining Grant for this week’s entire episode. Kyle shares some of the Defining Moments of his life and explains how they shaped him. He tells us a story of a disastrous trade gone wrong, answers listener’s questions from the Real Vision Mailbag, and explains what he’d take on a rocket ship to Mars. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Grant and Aaron cap off the 2017 Summer Series of Adventures in Finance as they are joined by the founder of Vulpes Investment Management, Steve Diggle, where he discusses his love of long-distance running, his career as a university boxer, and the tranquility of diving. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Grant and Aaron continue the 2017 Summer Series of Adventures in Finance as they are joined by Mark Yusko, Founder and CIO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, where he discusses his passion for philanthropy, the influence of legendary college coaches on his thinking, and the importance of solitude on one's ability to think deeply. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Grant and Aaron continue the 2017 Summer Series of Adventures in Finance as they are joined by Jawad Mian, founder of Stray Reflections, to discuss the philosophical underpinnings of his worldviews, how to create a mindset that lives in the present moment, why he went from buying hundreds of books to reading just a few of them multiple times. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Grant and Aaron continue the 2017 Summer Series of Adventures in Finance and turn-off from the beaten path as they are joined by the Pippa Malmgren to discuss drone technology, interesting summer reads, and the steps she takes to stay balanced and creative while multi-tasking as a mother, Presidential advisor, keynote speaker, startup founder, economist, and bestselling author. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Grant and Aaron kick off the 2017 Summer Series by addressing some of the most pressing listener questions during the first season of Adventures in Finance. The guys are also joined by Jeffrey Snider, of Alhambra Partners, and Michael Oliver, of Momentum Structural Analysis, who shed light on the Eurodollar markets and FAANG momentum, respectively. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Our season finale brings you three world-leading analysts and investors as they share their frameworks and favorite indicators, and help you to become a better investor. Featuring Jesse Felder of the Felder Report, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management, and Tian Yang of Variant Perception. We also say farewell to Aaron Chan, our co-host, as he departs Real Vision to continue his career in finance. In “Things I Got Wrong”, we speak with Josh Crumb, Co-founder of Goldmoney Inc., who shares the mistake he made diverging from the “long-term greedy” perspective. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Before the hundreds of billions in corporate bailouts and trillions in central bank interventions, there was a time when we believed there was no way our financial models and investment strategies couldn’t be wrong. That was until a hedge fund came along that threatened to bring down the global financial system in 1998. In ‘Things I Got Wrong’, Julian Brigden, Co-Founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners, shares what he got wrong on spotting major trends but jumping on them too soon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Look in the mirror and you will find your greatest ally and your mortal enemy. You will find someone who will play tricks on you, appeal to your worst emotions, but who holds the keys to your trading success. This week, we explore the psychology of trading with leading performance psychologist, Brett Steenbarger, and 40-year trading veteran and classical charting legend, Peter Brandt. In ‘Things I Got Wrong’, Rick Rule, President and CEO of Sprott U.S. Holdings, shares what he got wrong early in his career when he confused a bull market for brains. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Enter the shadowy world where people use complex strategies and cutting edge technology to hide their identities to defraud multinational companies out of millions of dollars. This week, we speak with Dee Smith, CEO and Principal of Strategic Insight Group, a man whose job is to see through this world of espionage and lies, and who is relied upon by corporations to find out exactly what they’re dealing with. In ‘Things I Got Wrong’, Peter Brandt, CEO and Founder of Factor Research, shares what he got wrong at the very beginning of his successful 40-year trading career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Meet an 18th-century murderer, banker, convict, laughing stock, and the godfather of central banking, John Law. Accompanied by Dr. Ben Hunt, the Chief Investment Strategist at Salient Partners and author of the Epsilon Theory website, we explore how Law wrote the modern central banking playbook which resulted in a bubble which has reverberated through the actions of future central bankers since. In ‘Things I Got Wrong’, Michael Schneider, former CIO and co-founder of Brookline Partners and independent PM, discusses what he got wrong assessing the bond market in 2009. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Harry Markopolos was the lone whistleblower on Bernie Maddoff's $18 billion Ponzi scheme and, in this interview, takes the whole regulatory and accounting apparatus to task in a way that will have you thinking differently about institutions that guard the public trust. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Marin Katusa, professional resource investor and founder of Katusa Research, shares what he got wrong going all-in on a mining company early in his career. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For years, cyberattacks on a global scale were the stuff of fiction; they have now become reality. And if the NSA isn’t safe then no one is safe. This week, we decode a potential existential threat to modern civilization with Dee Smith, CEO of Strategic Insight Group, and Kowsik Guruswamy, CTO of Menlo Security. In ‘Things I Got Wrong’, we speak with Greg Weldon, CEO of Weldon Financial, about what he got wrong shorting the Malaysian Ringgit during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If you want to predict the path of the global economy, you best have a pulse on the US consumer. At 70% of the US economy, consumer spending is in the economic driver seat. We speak to Stephanie Pomboy, economist and founder of MacroMavens, someone that has consistently got it right in predicting US consumer trends and has the inside track on where the US consumer is headed next. In ‘Things I Got Wrong’, we speak with Jerry Haworth, CEO of 36 South Capital Advisors, about what he got wrong shorting the Nasdaq in 1998. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Bitcoin is all everyone can talk about and the public is downright hysterical about the price, but the price is not what you need to be focusing on. This week, we explore how Bitcoin and the underlying blockchain technology have opened up a universe of applications that have the potential to revolutionize entire industries and economies. In 'Things I Got Wrong', we speak with Jesse Felder, publisher of the Felder Report, about what he got wrong while holding a stock in a sector the government wanted dead. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Neil Howe isn't only a household name for finance-types, he coined the term "Millennials" and literally wrote the book on generational analysis. This week, he shares his insights on where we stand in his Fourth Turning framework and what it means for markets and society. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Simon Mikhailovich, Founding Partner of Toqueville Bullion Reserve, shares what he got wrong about liquidity and leverage during 2007. (A very special thanks and congratulations to our producer, James, and his Mrs. on the arrival of their baby girl, Hayley!) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What if restaurant sales could predict the next recession? According to Paul Westra, Senior Research Analyst at Stifel, decades of restaurant sales data accurately predicted the last two US recessions, and the next one might be the biggest one yet. In 'Things I Got Wrong', and back by popular demand, Chris Cole, CIO of Artemis Capital Management, talks about what he got wrong in adjusting his systematic strategy to a new market regime. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

"The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see", Sir Winston Churchill. Men and women of historical significance understood the importance of history. Tim Price, partner and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and author of Investing Through the Looking Glass, kicks off our extended look at the history of financial crises and scandals, and what they can tell us about the future. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Alex Gurevich, CIO of HonTe Investments, shares what he got wrong about conflating market forecasting with other realms of expertise. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The agricultural industry sustains human life but is taken for granted and is subject to volatile cycles. Alan Boyce, former Soros Fund Management Director and Agtech investor, talks us through the biggest challenges facing the industry and major blind-spots few are aware of. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Daniel Want, CIO and co-founder of Prerequisite Capital Management, shares what he got wrong about the end-game in Australian real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Volatility permeates markets, nature, and life. Yet, it is monumentally misunderstood, and often to ruinous consequences. Stephen Diggle, Founder of Vulpes Investment Management, and Chris Cole, Managing Partner at Artemis Capital Management, get at the heart of what individual investors need to know about volatility. 'In Things I Got Wrong', Chris Martenson, Founder of PeakProsperity.com, shares what he got wrong with market structure and communicating emotionally charged ideas. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Learn from hedge fund legends as Kyle Bass interviews John Burbank III to reveal insights and ideas that differentiate truly independent market thinkers from amateur speculators. In 'Things I Got Wrong', John Netto, the Protean Trader and Author of The Global Macro Edge, discusses his error in preparing for catalysts and the evaluation framework that sprung from this experience. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The financial system will soon witness a collision between an unstoppable force and an immovable object. Pensions around the world are being crushed under the weight of trillions in unfunded liabilities while hundreds of millions of Baby Boomers are advancing to retirement in ever greater numbers, creating a perfect storm for the next crisis that is all but mathematically certain to happen. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Preston Pysh (@PrestonPysh), co-host of The Investors Podcast, shares crucial lessons about applying value investing principles in times of crisis. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Carson Block, Founder of Muddy Waters Research, single-handedly dismantles fraudulent companies and his research can cause stocks to plummet 90% in market cap. As one of the world's preeminent short-sellers, Carson shares his incredible story and process for identifying fraudulent targets. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Dr. Steve Keen, professor of economics at Kingston University London, fesses up to misjudging the Australian real estate bubble. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Deconstruct the Trump Reflation Trade as unsightly political realities emerge from the shadows. In 'Things I Got Wrong', David Hay, CIO of Evergreen Gavekal, confesses to underestimating central bank firepower and the usefulness of extreme market sentiment readings. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The repercussions of a boom-bust energy cycle and massive infrastructure investment means a supply glut and potentially lower oil prices for much longer than anyone expects. In 'Things I Got Wrong', Michael Lewitt sets aside his ego and trusts in the machines and artificial intelligence. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices