
Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
883 episodes — Page 12 of 18
Ep 1172The Real Estate News - Construction Companies at Risk of Dangerous Cyberattacks
Real Estate News - Construction Companies at Risk of Dangerous Cyberattacks There's growing concern about the possibility of a dangerous cyberattack on automated systems used by construction companies. These programs are used for things like the measuring and mixing of materials used to support large construction projects. Some companies are taking steps now to protect themselves from hackers but cybersecurity experts say the threat level is rising, and the safeguards are lagging behind other industries. (1) Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. White House Warning about Cyberattacks Just a few weeks ago, the White House issued a warning about a possible Russian cyberattack linked to the Ukraine invasion. U.S. intelligence officials got together with more than a hundred infrastructure companies and industry groups to share classified information related to this threat. (2) Cyber security researchers from Mandiant say that so-called "threat actors" have developed a set of tools called "Incontroller." They say these tools are "exceptionally rare and dangerous" because they can be used to shut down or sabotage industrial facilities. That includes turning off safety controllers at power plants, for example. Mandiant researchers can't pinpoint the source of this threat but they suggest that the activity is similar to what they say is Russia's "historic interest in industrial control systems." A Dallas-based contractor that contracts with top-level government agencies promises to "make the world smarter, more connected and more sustainable" but is also increasing its emphasis on cybersecurity. Jacobs has clients like the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Intelligence Community, NASA, the U.S. Department of Energy along with defense agencies for other countries and private sector companies involved with aerospace, automotive, energy, and telecommunications. Jacobs CEO Bob Pragada says: "There is not an infrastructure project right now with major agencies, in the U.S., the U.K., across the world, in Australia, where we don't have a cyber component that's with it." And he says that's becoming a much bigger part of the business. Contractor's Vulnerability Let's scale that risk down to the level of the contractor doing the work, in this case the pouring of concrete. Construction Dive explains that a concrete contractor uses automatic control systems to mix and lay the concrete. After the concrete hardens, automatic systems are also used to inspect the integrity of the finished product. These systems rely on internet- and cloud-based software which could make them vulnerable to an attack. One technology and cybersecurity consultant offered an example of a worst-case scenario. Jason Vigh told Construction Dive: "Take for instance the construction of a bridge, you have to have strength integrity. What if hackers change the systems that are actually being used to automate the project and (the bridge) collapses… all because the supply chain is compromised in the first place." He says there's already a lot of security in place for the financial sector, but when it comes to manufacturing, cybersecurity is lagging. Precautions Needed for Construction Companies So far, most cyberattacks in the construction industry have involved ransomware or access to customer data. A northern California concrete contractor, Ghilotti Bros reported a breach in December of last year. It says an unauthorized party gained temporary access to its systems and files. An energy company out of Oklahoma City also reported a data breach a few months ago, according to Construction Dive. Recently, a German company reported a cyberattack that impacted 40% of its wind turbines. Cybersecurity experts say that more precautions are being put into place, but it does require pro-active investment by companies and industries. Autodesk vice president of product development, Sameer Merchant says the money companies need to spend now to protect themselves will be "a much smaller price to pay than the price you pay if they are exposed to these attacks." If you'd like to read more on this topic, you'll find links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com Also, please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join our real estate investor network for free at newsforinvestors.com. That gives you access to the Investor Portal where you'll find information on rental markets and sample property pro-formas. You can also connect with our experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke... Show Notes link: https://www.newsforinvestors.com Join link: https://join.realwealth.com/?utm_content=Real%20Estate%20News%20Podcast&utm_campaign=Join%20for%20Free&utm_term=Description%20Text%20Link Subscribe link: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/real-estate-ne
Ep 1171The Real Estate News Brief - Week Ending April 23rd, 2022; Top Investor Concerns, Foreclosure Activity, 40-Year Loan Option
Real Estate News Brief - Week Ending April 23rd, 2022 Top Investor Concerns, Foreclosure Activity, 40-Year Loan Option In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 23rd, 2022... the top concerns for investors, what's happening with foreclosures, and a new 40-year loan option for some borrowers. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week and growing concerns about inflation. Fed Chief Jerome Powell says: "It's absolutely essential to restore price stability." He feels it's appropriate to move more quickly with interest rate hikes and says that a 50-basis point rate hike is on the table for the Fed's May meeting. He says: "Our goal is to use our tools to get demand and supply back in sync, so that inflation moves down and does so without a slowdown that amounts to a recession." But he also warns that it will be a challenging process. Consumer inflation hit an annual rate of 8.5% in March. That's well above the central bank's 2% target. (1) Fannie Mae is predicting a recession by next year, due to the need for aggressive monetary policies to control inflation. But it says it will probably be a "moderate recession" and not like the Great Recession of 2008. It expects the strength of the housing market to help cushion the blow although the mortgage financing giant also expects the housing market to slow down somewhat due to high home prices and mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors is predicting a 10% decrease in home sales for this year. (2) Unemployment claims remain near a 40-year low. They were down 2,000 from the week before to 184,000. The low numbers are the result of a strong labor market that has more job openings than unemployed workers to fill them. Continuing claims were also down. They dropped 58,000 to 1.42 million. That's the lowest they've been since 1970. (3) Home builders are increasing the number of homes they are starting despite rising inflation, higher mortgage rates and the labor shortage. But they are shifting their focus because of those issues, from single-family homes to multi-families. The Census Bureau says that home starts were up .3% in March to an annual rate of about 1.79 million. Permits were also .4% higher to an annual rate of about 1.87 million. (4) Home builder confidence is lower however because of rising mortgage rates and all the other things making new homes so much more expensive. The National Association of Home Builders says its monthly confidence index was down two points in April to a reading of 77. Even though it is hovering near its lowest level since last September, anything over 50 is considered positive. (5) Existing home sales were lower for a second month in a row. The National Association of Realtors says they were down 2.7% in March to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million. If you compare sales to March of 2021, they were down 4.5%. (6) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates are now over 5%. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 11 points last week, to 5.11%. The 15-year was up 21 points to 4.38%. (7) In other news making headlines… Top Concern for Investors Investors are more concerned about inflation than they are about rising mortgage rates and access to capital. Real estate investor financing firm Kiavi conducted a survey which shows that 65% of the participants were concerned about inflation, 63% were concerned about higher interest rates, and 58% were concerned about access to capital. But that said, Kiavi says these worries are not keeping investors from moving forward on their investment plans. (8) CEO Michael Bourque says: "We're seeing our customers continue to identify smart investments and make good decisions. With over two-thirds of U.S. homes 30 years old or more real estate investors will continue to play an important role as they revitalize aged homes and make them move-in ready for millions of families across the country." Foreclosure Activity on the Rise Foreclosure activity is rising now that most of the pandemic-related moratoriums have been lifted. There was a 39% increase in foreclosure filings during the first quarter of this year. Compared to a year ago, they are up 139%. That's according to ATTOM Data Solutions. (9) The states with the highest level of foreclosure activity are California, Florida, Texas, Illinois, and Ohio. The metros where you'll find the greatest number of foreclosure starts are Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Houston, and Philadelphia. FHA 40-Year Covid Loan Modification Option The Federal Housing Administration introduced a 40-year loan modification option for borrowers impacted by Covid. Loan servicers can offer this option immediately to help homeowners avoid foreclosure. In 90 days, it will be a requirement to offer the 40-year modification to help people lower their payments. (10) That's it for today. Check
Ep 1170Supreme Court Asked to Decide Fate of "Floor Plans"
The National Association of Realtors is hoping to bring a case before the Supreme Court on the use of "floor plans" for real estate deals. NAR and a coalition of real estate groups want the high court to overturn an appeals court ruling that claims the creation of a floor plan is a copyright violation, by anyone, including the homeowner who might want to post a floor plan online to help sell the home. (1) Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. The lawsuit was filed last year by Missouri-based Designworks Homes, and the company's owner, Charles James. They claim that two real estate companies violated copyright laws by creating floor plans to help with the sale of homes that James had built. Designworks lost the first case, but the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals overturned that ruling saying that copyright law also applied to floor plans. Ruling Has Wide-Reaching Implications The ruling has wide-reaching implications for all sorts of real-estate related purposes. In a brief to the U.S. Supreme Court by NAR and other real estate groups, they claim that Congress specifically allowed for pictorial representations of homes by their owners when it created the Copyright Act of 1976. They also argue that: "Many home buyers rely on floor plans in real estate listings to decide whether to purchase a residence, and their ability to secure financing for that transaction is often contingent on an appraisal that requires the creation of a floor plan." The brief also describes other reasons a homeowner might need a floor plan, for things like renovations, installations, and the arranging of furniture. They are also useful for mortgages, tax assessments, property valuations and insurance coverage. Real Estate Coalition Appeal to Supreme Court The brief was submitted by NAR and a coalition of 18 other groups including Redfin, Zillow, the American Property Owners Alliance, and CoreLogic. They said in the brief that most Americans would be "startled" to hear they can't make a floor plan of their own home without violating copyright law. They say the ruling severely limits property rights and creates a scenario that invites frivolous lawsuits. It would also be a big disappointment to buyers and sellers. In NAR's recent 2021 Generational Trends Report, floor plans were third on the list of important website features for online homebuyers. Photos and listing details are the only two features listed higher than floor plans. (2) Floor Plan Popularity Among Buyers & Sellers The American Property Owners Alliance also cited its own research on the topic. In a survey conducted last month, it found that almost 90% of the respondents strongly agreed with the idea that homeowners should be able to create a floor plan of their home anytime they want. The case will go before the Supreme Court if four of the nine justices vote in favor of hearing the case and that won't happen until later this year. In the meantime, is it an issue to create and post floor plans right now? NAR's General Counsel Katie Johnson acknowledges the risk in the brief: She says: "Homeowners should be able to create and use floor plans without fear of litigation throughout the ownership and sale of their homes." If you'd like to read more on this topic, you'll find links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. Also, please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join our real estate investor network for free at newsforinvestors.com. That gives you access to the Investor Portal where you'll find information on rental markets and sample property pro-formas. You can also connect with our experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-asks-supreme-court-to-protect-consumers-from-lawsuits-when-making-floor-plans-of-their-homes 2 -https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2021-home-buyers-and-sellers-generational-trends-03-16-2021.pdf 3 -https://propertyownersalliance.org/article/american-property-owners-alliance-supports-appeal-of-ruling-on-homeowners-use-of-floor-plans/
Ep 1169The Real Estate News Brief: Inflation Hits 40-Year-High, Double-Digit Rent Growth, Rising Cost for New Homes
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 16th, 2022... the latest surge in consumer prices, where rents are growing the fastest, and the high cost of building new homes. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week, and another alarming report on inflation. The consumer price index jumped 1.2% last month to a 40-year high of 8.5%. The increase was mostly driven by higher prices for gas, food, and housing. If you eliminate gas and food you get a core rate of 6.5%. Some economists believe that inflation will ease up soon, when the price of oil stabilizes and some of the supply chain issues clear up. But other economists worry that we might continue to see prices going higher. (1) Wholesale prices are also surging. The producer price index was up 1.4% in March to an annual rate of 11.2%. That's the highest it's been in almost 40 years and likely a sign of continued inflation. Economist Kurt Rankin of PNC Financial Services says: "Producer prices are an early warning sign of what households can expect in terms of consumer price inflation." (2) There was a slight rise in new jobless claims, but that's off a 54-year low just last week. The Labor Department reported an 18,000 increase in applications, to a total of 185,000. Meanwhile, the number of continuing claims went down 48,000 to a total of 1.48 million. (3) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates hit the 5% mark for the first time in more than 10 years. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 28 basis points to exactly 5%. The 15-year was up 26 points to 4.17%. High home prices combined with higher mortgage rates are making it a lot harder for many Americans to become homeowners. (4) In other news making headlines… Rents Hit Double-Digits in Many Areas Rents are also moving higher in step with home prices. Many landlords are playing catch-up with rent levels after the pandemic. Realtor.com says that average rents are up almost 20% since 2020. The research covered March of 2020 to March of this year. (5) Among the areas with the fastest rent growth are Miami; Riverside County, California; and Tampa, Florida. Orlando and Jacksonville are also both in the top 10 for rent growth. Realtor.com economist Daniel Hale says that rents are creating affordability issues for some renters. She also says there are signs that rent growth is slowing down but it's hard to predict if the trend will continue. She says: "The jury is still out on whether rent growth will hit single digits by the end of 2022." Property Taxes Heading Higher Home values appear to be rising much faster than property tax, which suggests that tax assessors have some catching up to do. ATTOM Data Solutions says the average property tax on single-family homes rose 1.8% nationwide last year. That's the slowest pace of tax growth in five years. (6) ATTOM's Rick Sharga says it's surprising that property taxes have gone up more because home values are up 16% for last year. That likely means that homeowners can expect to see higher tax bills as homes are reassessed. Some areas have already increased property taxes. In Nashville, Tennessee, they went up an average of 27% last year. Milwaukee homeowners are paying about 18% more on property taxes. Baltimore and Grand Rapids, Michigan, are third and fourth for the highest recent tax increases. Surprisingly, tax rates actually went down in some areas including Houston, Dallas, and Austin, Texas. Prices Keep Rising for Building Materials The cost of building a new home keeps going up, although lumber prices just came down a little. The National Association of Home Builders says building material prices have gone up 20.4% year-over-year and 33% from the beginning of the pandemic. (7) Additional costs have added 31% to the cost of a new home. Realtor.com reports the average sales price of a new home was $511,000 in February. Insider attributes the drop in lumber prices to improvements in the supply chain and a softening of demand for lumber. It says lumber prices have fallen 39% from a March high and are now 52% lower than they were in May of last year. That's when they peaked at $1,733 per one thousand board feet. That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-consumer-price-index-for-march-11649764935?mod=economy-politics 2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wholesale-prices-surge-1-4-and-point-to-hi
Ep 1168New Climate-Friendly Cement Substitute?
Cement is to the construction industry like dirt is to a garden. It's essential for all kinds of buildings and infrastructure. But it's also a huge greenhouse gas contributor. With the current push toward more climate-friendly technologies, two researchers from Massachusetts claim they have created a cement-like material that is not just carbon neutral, but literally sucks carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. So what is this intriguing new material? It's called Enzymatic Construction Material or ECM. It was created at the Massachusetts-based Worcester Polytechnic Institute by researchers Suzanne Scarlata and Nima Rahbar. Carbon-Negative Foodprint In addition to its eco-friendly carbon-negative footprint, they say it will also use stored carbon to heal cracks. And it may also be a good material to patch aging concrete. As reported by Construction Dive, the primary component of ECM is calcium carbonate crystals. You get that by combining carbonic anhydrase with CO2, which is an enzyme found in living cells. The mixture also includes sand, water, and a polymer binding agent. The final product isn't as strong as concrete, but Scarlata and Rahbar say it could be used for smaller projects with a lower load demand. That might be the side of a house, for example. What's a Megapascal? ECM's strength is currently 12 MPa, or Megapascals, which is a unit of measure for the compressive strength of concrete. The higher the number, the more pressure can be applied to the concrete before it starts to break down. Typical Portland Concrete ranges from 20 to 40 MPa but some concrete is rated much higher for projects that require high strength and durability. Scarlata told Construction Dive: "The technology's there, but needs tweaking and a little more development." They have patented their product and founded a start-up called Enzymatic Inc. to develop it. In addition to making it stronger, they also reportedly want to make it more resistant to humidity and water damage. They plan on conducting more tests, and will be filing for grants to help fund their research. ECM currently costs about $168 per cubic yard to produce although Rahbar says the benefits it provides for the environment are much greater than concrete. Concrete is cheaper, dollar-wise, at $125 per cubic yard. Other Eco-Friendly Concrete Alternatives But this isn't the only eco-friendly product being developed to replace concrete some day in the future. According to media website, Anthropocene, which focuses on sustainability science and innovation, there are other products in development that are also carbon-negative. One is called hempcrete, which is made of hemp fibers and a binding agent. Another is a material that's infused with bacteria that absorbs carbon dioxide. The ECM product has an enzyme that does that. ECM vs. Concrete Anthropocene says that twenty-seven cubic feet of ECM will store 8 kilograms of carbon dioxide while the same amount of concrete will "emit" more than 180 kilograms of carbon dioxide. In addition to being carbon negative, ECM can use the carbon it stores to heal cracks. It can also be produced without high temperatures and doesn't take a long time to cure, like concrete. It'll take a huge effort to displace concrete, however. Concrete pretty much rules the construction world right now, with some 30 billion metric tons used per year. It also accounts for about 7% of the greenhouse gases produced worldwide. Rahbar says their goal is to produce a building material with a lower carbon footprint. He says: "It's our contribution to climate change issues." If you'd like to read more on this topic, you'll find links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. Also, please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join our real estate investor network for free at newsforinvestors.com. That gives you access to the Investor Portal where you'll find information on rental markets and sample property pro-formas. You can also connect with our experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 - https://www.constructiondive.com/news/self-healing-concrete-ecm-enzymatic-substitute-sucks-carbon-out-air/620368/ 2 - https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2022/03/new-building-material-soaks-carbon-and-heals-itself/
Ep 1167The Real Estate News Brief: Fed's Game Plan, Housing Affordability, Metros with More New Listenings
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 9th, 2022... the Fed's inflation fighting game plan, first quarter housing affordability, and the metros with more new listings. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week, and the Fed's plan to rapidly shrink its $9 trillion balance sheet to help control inflation. According to the minutes of its March meeting, which were released last week, the Fed plans to reduce its bond portfolio by about $95 billion per month. (1) Fed policymakers haven't made a final decision yet, but they say the reduction plan could begin next month. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said at a conference that she expects a series of rate hikes and a rapid winding down of the balance sheet to bring inflation to a "more neutral position." That includes bigger-than-usual rate hikes. Kansas City Fed President Esther George said in a Bloomberg TV interview that "50 basis points is going to be an option that we'll have to consider, along with other things." San Francisco Fed Bank President Mary Daly said during a meeting in Seattle that she doesn't expect the nation to fall into a recession. She said: "We could slow so it looks like we are teetering close to it, that's possible, but it will be a short-lived event I expect, and then we'll be back up." (2) Jobless claims came in at 166,000 last week, which is the second lowest reading in U.S. history. The last time jobless claims were that low was back in 1968. The job market is strong, and that's one major buffer against the risk of recession. Wages are rising at a fast pace, although they are not keeping up with inflation. But jobs are plentiful, and workers are easily quitting one job for another. (3) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates are also rising quickly. Last Thursday, Freddie Mac said the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 4.72%. The 15-year was 3.91%. It's gone even higher since then making it harder for many Americans to afford a mortgage. (4) In other news making headlines... Homes Affordability Drops in Many Areas Rising mortgage rates combined with higher home prices are knocking a lot of people out of the home buying market. ATTOM Data Solutions' first quarter Home Affordability Report shows that home price growth in the first quarter was faster than it's been for at least 15 years. It shows that median-priced single-family homes in 79% of the counties analyzed were less affordable in the first quarter than in the historical past. The same report at the beginning of "last year" showed that 38% of the counties were less affordable. (5) ATTOM's Rick Sharga says: "It's certainly no surprise that affordability is more challenging today for prospective homebuyers." He says: "As home prices continue to soar and interest rates approach five percent on a 30-year fixed rate loan, more consumers are going to struggle to find a property they can comfortably afford." Inventory Increasing for Spring Season There has been an increase in listings for the spring buying season, with more on the way. Realtor.com says that new listings were up 8% last week, and a new survey shows that 64% of the people in the survey plan to sell their homes in the coming months. (6) That's already starting to bring prices down. According to Redfin, 12% of the homes for sale had a price drop during the month of March, although Redfin's chief economist Daryl Fairweather says that "price drops are still rare" but they do show "there's a limit to a sellers' power." He says: "Sellers can no longer overprice their homes and expect buyers to clamor at their door." Redfin says the average home has been selling 2.1% above its asking price. (7) Cities with the Most New Listings Realtor.com did some research as to which metros are seeing the most new listings. At the top of the list is Panama City, Florida. Daphne, Alabama is second on the list followed by Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; Jacksonville, North Carolina; Iowa City, Iowa, and Macon, Georgia. Rounding out the top ten are East Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania; Greeley, Colorado; Boise, Idaho, and Atlantic City, New Jersey. It sounds like there's a little something in there for everyone. That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/balance-sheet-to-shrink-by-95-billion-per-month-as-many-on-fed-see-50-basis-point-hikes-coming-minutes-show-2022-04-06?mod=mw_latestnews 2 -https://www.re
Ep 1166The Real Estate News Brief: Prices Move Higher, Fed Misstep Worries, Biden's Housing Budget
Real Estate News Brief - Week Ending April 2, 2022 Prices Move Higher, Fed Misstep Worries, Biden's Housing Budget In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 2nd, 2022... consumer prices march higher, Wall Street worries about how the Fed will handle inflation, and Biden's budget proposal for housing. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week and more concerns about inflation. The core personal consumption expenditures price index increased 5.4% from a year ago. That's the largest year-over-year increase in 40 years. The PCE is considered more accurate than the consumer price index or CPI, and is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The core rate excludes prices for gas and food. If you include those, the PCE is 6.4%. (1) Consumers are spending a larger share of their paychecks because of those higher prices, but they are also splurging on things like hotels, restaurants, and vacations. Government data shows that consumer spending was up .2% in February. People are spending less on things that are harder to get, like new cars and trucks. (2) The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% in March. That's close to a 50-year low of 3.5% which the U.S. hit right before the pandemic. The economy also added 431,000 jobs and wages moved higher as companies compete for too few workers. (3) Initial unemployment claims rose slightly last week, but continuing claims fell to their lowest level since 1969. The Labor Department reported that applications were up 14,000 to 202,000 for the week ending March 26th. The total number of claims dropped to 188,000, which is a 27,000 drop from the week before. (4) A lot of Americans are also quitting their jobs for better ones. The data shows that some 4.35 million workers quit in February. Before the pandemic, the average number of people quitting per month was less than three million. A labor shortage has given workers an advantage. Job openings were down slightly in February, but are still near a record high, at 11.27 million. (5) Builders are among those wrestling with the labor shortage. The National Association of Home Builders says construction hiring was up 5.2% but the industry still has about 381,000 open positions. That's significantly higher than a year ago, when the industry had 257,000 available jobs. The labor gap is making it tough to meet the current demand for housing. (6) The latest report on home prices from Case-Shiller shows a year-over-year increase of 19.1% for the 20-city index. The national index is slightly higher at 19.2%. The FHFA shows a slightly lower rate of home price growth at 18.2%. Homes are appreciating the fastest in Phoenix. The Case-Shiller index shows those prices are up 32.6%. (7) Construction spending was higher in February, but some of that increase is due to inflation. The Census Bureau reported a .8% increase in private sector spending while the producer price index for construction was up .7% in February. On an annual basis, spending has increased the most for single-family construction. It's up 20% while spending for multi-family construction is up 7.8%. (8) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates moved higher again this last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 25 basis points to 4.67%. The 15-year was up 20 points to 3.83%. (9) In other news making headlines... CNBC Poll on Economic Risks A new poll shows that Wall Street investors are more concerned about the Fed than they are about inflation. Investors told CNBC that the biggest threat to the economy is a misstep by central bank policymakers. (1) Forty-five percent of those polled listed that as their top concern. Another 33% listed inflation. Russian aggression was listed by 11%. Relations with China got 6% of worries. A new wave of Covid infections was last on the list, at just 4%. CNBC reports that "many notable investors are skeptical that the central bank will be able to engineer a soft landing even with a stronger economy." Biden Budget & Housing President Biden is asking for a huge increase in funding to increase the supply of affordable housing. His proposal includes a 34% increase in spending to a total of about $50 billion dollars. That total includes $32 billion for the Housing Choice Voucher Program, which is also known as Section 8 subsidized housing for low-income, elderly, and disabled Americans. The rest of the funding would be distributed among several other programs that contribute to affordable housing. (11) The National Association of Realtor's chief advocacy officer, Shannon McGahn, says that NAR has been working with lawmakers on this proposal over this past year. She says: "Many changes will be made to this plan, but it is good news that the White House sees this issue for what it is—a crisis—and many in Congress on both sides of the aisle agree." That's it for today. Check the show
Ep 1165New Construction-Related Theme Park is OPEN for Kids & Adults!
A new theme park has opened in Texas that might help get kids, and adults, interested in the construction industry. It's called "Dig World" in Katy, Texas, just west of Houston near Interstate 10. It's designed to provide a real world experience with full-size construction machinery that you see at job sites. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Dig World opened its doors on March 17th, and provides 3-and-a-half acres of construction-related activities. (1) According to Dig World, it's "designed to safely provide a hand-on experience for both children and adults in operating heavy equipment." That includes: full-size Caterpillar Mini-Excavatprs, Skid Steers, and UTVs. What's a Skid Steer? Okay, I had to look a few of them up! Bigrentz defined a skid steer as "a small, versatile piece of construction equipment used primarily for digging. It's light and maneuverable, and its arms can attach to a range of tools for various construction and landscaping jobs." (2) I would say they look kind of like a tractor but more industrial. Or maybe a trip to Dig World would clear up any confusion! What's a UTV? UTV stands for Utility Terrain Vehicle, as opposed to an All Terrain Vehicle. Nationwide.com says they are "built and used more for work than recreation. They are large, powerful, able to seat passengers side-by-side, and built with lots of storage space. They're commonly used to haul equipment and supplies in locations that make using a truck impractical or impossible." (3) So you are basically driving an oversized ATV with room for your friends, and whatever else you need to take with you! Some of Dig World's other attractions include a gem mining station, a playground, and a turf field where visitors can play various games, like Cornhole. Founder, Jacob Robinson told Construction Dive that he was inspired to build the park by his sons who love dump trucks and other construction equipment. (4) He partnered with Texas A&M's Department of Construction Science to create this immersive learning experience. The park is also designed to sync up with the university's curriculum and host students on field trips. Park Safety Features The company has incorporated various safety features to ensure the public's safety. Dig World's website says: "We require seat belts to be engaged before any machine operation can occur. The speeds on drivable machines have been governed, and other equipment utilizes hydraulic limitations to reduce total movement." Dig World isn't the only construction adventure park in the U.S. Construction Dive mentioned a few others including Diggerland USA in New Jersey, Dig This in Las Vegas and Extreme Sandbox in Minnesota and North Texas. But you may soon have access to several Dig World locations. The company says it plans to build ten parks throughout the nation over the next few years. It says the goal is to "create 10 million smiles along the way!" If you'd like to read more about Dig World, you'll find links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com Also, please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join our real estate investor network for free at newsforinvestors.com. That gives you access to the Investor Portal where you'll find information on rental markets and sample property pro-formas. You can also connect with our experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 - https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/first-texas-construction-themed-amusement-park-dig-world-opens-in-katy-on-march-17th-301499549.html 2 - https://www.bigrentz.com/blog/what-is-a-skid-steer 3 - https://www.nationwide.com/lc/resources/powersports/articles/difference-between-atv-utv 4 - https://www.constructiondive.com/news/dig-world-construction-equipment-machinery-amusement-park-opens-texas/620784/
Ep 1164Surprise Workforce Surge for Builders!
The construction industry is reporting good news about the worker shortage. The Associated Builders and Contractors group says there's been a surge of workers returning to the industry, and the workforce size is almost what it was at the start of the pandemic. But even with that progress, the workforce gap is still an issue. (1) Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. The Labor Department says the industry added 60,000 jobs last month, in February. Nonresidential construction added about 29,000 of those jobs for an annual increase of 3.9%. Residential construction added about 31,000 jobs for an annual increase of 4.5%. That brings the total number of construction workers to 7.6 million but the industry still has many positions to fill. The unemployment rate for the construction industry is currently at 6.7%. That's almost twice the rate of unemployment for the population in general, which is running at 3.8%. State Data on Construction Jobs If you break the data down into states, the Associated General Contractors of America says that construction employment is 'higher" than pre-pandemic levels in 29 states and "lower" in 21 states, plus Washington, D.C. According to that organization, some states are still reporting record low employment numbers for the construction industry. (2) The association's chief economist, Ken Simonson, says: "The scramble for workers is likely to drive wages and overtime costs even higher at the same time rising materials prices are cutting into already tight margins." Although the worker shortage continues, the February numbers are a good sign. ABC's chief economist Anirban Basu says: "Bottom line: The U.S. economy is charging into the post-pandemic world with significant momentum, and nonresidential construction is part of that story." He says there's evidence that "contractors have had a somewhat easier time filling available positions recently" and that "supply chain issues have improved slightly." National Construction Workforce Gap Again, that kind of scenario will vary from state to state. And there is still a dire need for construction workers across the U.S. ABC estimates that the industry needs another 650,000 workers to help the industry catch up with housing market demand. But Basu believes that 2022 will be a strong year. Of course the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a big variable. That is pushing prices higher for some things, like gas, and causing new supply chain issues. Basu also points out that the government won't be spending as much money this year, despite plans for infrastructure upgrades. AGC of America CEO Stephen Sandherr says that construction firms will have to pass along additional costs and that developers "should not be punished for failing to foresee a Russian invasion, spiking oil prices and soaring inflation when preparing public works bids." Rapid Workforce Growth So there are still headwinds from various directions but there are also signs of optimism. Basu says: "At the heart of America's economic momentum is rapid workforce growth, with more people re-entering the workforce to take advantage of higher wages and to better contend with rapidly rising prices." If you'd like to read more on this topic, you'll find links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com Also, please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join our real estate investor network for free at newsforinvestors.com. That gives you access to the Investor Portal where you'll find information on rental markets and sample property pro-formas. You can also connect with our experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 - https://www.abc.org/News-Media/News-Releases/entryid/19274/construction-employment-surges-in-february-to-near-pre-pandemic-levels-says-abc 2 - https://www.agc.org/news/2022/03/14/construction-employment-remains-below-pre-pandemic-levels-21-states-and-dc-spiking-materials-price
Ep 1163The Real Estate News Brief: Fed's Next Rate Hike, Mortgage Rate Surge, Pets Who Sell Homes
The Real Estate News Brief - Week Ending March 26, 2022 Fed's Next Rate Hike, Mortgage Rate Surge, Pets Who Sell Homes In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending March 26th, 2022... the Fed's next rate hike, the latest surge in mortgage rates, and why pets might help sell homes. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week. The Federal Reserve is ramping up for bigger rate hikes. Fed policymakers are saying that inflation is much too high, and that more aggressive action may be needed, including a 50 basis point rate hike in May. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said at an event last week: "With the labor market so strong, inflation, inflation, inflation is at the top of everyone's mind." Fed Chief Jerome Powell also said the central bank may start reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet in May. The Fed's portfolio mushroomed in size with the purchase of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities during the pandemic. (1) Unemployment applications have hit their lowest level since 1969. They were 28,000 lower last week than the week before for a total of just 187,000 initial claims. The number of people already getting benefits was also much lower. It was 67,000 lower for a total of 1.35 million claims. As reported by MarketWatch, that's the lowest level since the 1970's. (2) New home sales were down in February, despite higher inventory numbers. They were down 2% to an annual rate of 772,000. If you compare this February to a year ago, sales were down 6% while the supply of new homes increased to 6.3 months. That's the highest since 2008. So what's happening? Prices are getting too high for many first-time buyers. The average sales price for a new home that was sold in February was $511,000 while the median was $400,600. Realtor.com's chief economist Danielle Hale says: "A new home is not an option for many first-time homebuyers even before the impact of higher mortgage rates is considered." (3) Pending home sales were also down in February. They were down 4.1% according to the National Association of Realtors thanks to lack of affordable inventory and rising mortgage rates. Realtor.com economist researcher, George Ratiu, says: "With mortgage rates moving toward 5%, we are seeing early signs of a shift in housing fundamentals, as many people looking for a home have hit a ceiling on their ability to afford one." (4) Consumers don't see their economic situation improving much in the next year. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell slightly to 59.4 which is close to an 11-year low. Americans are worried about Inflation and the war in Ukraine, although they are feeling confident about finding a job. (5) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates surged higher this last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 26 basis points, to 4.42%. The 15-year was up 24 basis points to 3.63%. (6) In other news making headlines... Rents Taking Larger Share of Paychecks Renters are spending more of their paychecks on rent. According to the most recent rent report by realtor.com, Americans are generally spending 30% of their paychecks on rent, and in 14 out of 50 metros tracked, they are spending more. Realtor.com's chief economist, Danielle Hale says: "The general rule of thumb is to keep monthly housing costs to less than 30% of your income." Anything above that, economists considered a debt-burden for households. (7) High rents are motivating some renters to become home-buyers, but high home prices and rising mortgage rates along with a lack of inventory is forcing many to keep renting. Homebuyers On the Move The number of people moving from one state to another is hitting a new high. Redfin.com says that 32.3% of its users planned to relocate during the first two months of the year. That's up from 26% in 2019. The data was pulled from a sample of about 2 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes in 111 metros, and looked at a minimum of 10 homes in specific areas. (8) Redfin says there are more people leaving the more expensive coastal areas for more affordable inland areas. The research also shows that people are looking to move to warmer locations. Miami, Phoenix, and Tampa have been attracting the most attention. Pets Help Sellers Sell Homes If you are selling a home, you don't have to hide your pet. A new study from Quicken Loans shows that buyers are more than open to buying a home that has had pet living there. (9) 79% of the respondents said that seeing signs of a pet won't discourage them. Almost 20% said that it might even increase their desire to buy a particular home, so long as there aren't any visible signs of pet damage. Only about 1 in 10 said they might regret buying a home with a barking dog next door. That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave
Ep 1162New 25% Capital Gains Tax on California Home Sales???
The latest attempt to create affordable housing in California is sending shockwaves through the real estate industry. And it doesn't just impact investors. It's a wake-up call to any California resident who likes the freedom to move to a new home when the urge strikes them! This new effort involves legislation that would create a steep capital gains tax for anyone who sells their home within seven years of buying it. Hi I'm Kathy Fettke and this is the Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Democratic Assemblymember Chris Ward of San Diego introduced the legislation. It's called the California Speculation Tax Act. Under this Act, the sale of a home within three years of its purchase would trigger a 25% capital gains tax. The tax would be reduced 5% for each subsequent year and disappear if the owner holds on to the property for at least seven years. Applies to All Residential Buyers/Sellers This would apply to any kind of residential property including single-family homes, condos, townhomes, multi-units, etc. And, it would apply to most individuals. First-time homebuyers would be exempt, but they would also get slapped with that tax if they buy and sell their second home in less than seven years. Active due military personnel are also exempt, along with the estate of a person who died within that seven-year timeline. There are a few other exceptions including multi-units that meet a 15% affordable housing requirement, properties with affordable deed restrictions, one-half of a subdivided property, properties that are exempt from transfer taxes, and commercial and mixed-use properties. Emergency Meeting on Flip Tax Bill The American Association of Private Lenders held an emergency meeting on March 17th with the law firm that represents the association, Geraci LLC, and Think Realty. Nema Daghbandan (neema dahg-ban-dun) of the association acknowledged that California has done some good things recently to create affordable housing. That includes laws that allow ADUs and the subdivision of single-family homes and/or properties. But he says this bill will not contribute to California's housing affordability goal. He claims: "There's no actual direct relationship as to how this will reduce the amount of people purchasing property or who isn't purchasing it. Because ultimately what will happen for people who buy and hold for short term, all they are going to do is instead purchase these properties, hold them as rental properties, and then jack up the rent on renters. That's all that's going to happen. It doesn't do anything to create housing stock." Early Stage of the Legislation The legislation is still in committee as a draft version, but real estate professionals say now is the time to speak up. They say the legislation is not only bad for California, but a bad precedent for other states. It's the kind of legislation that can grow legs if it's passed in one state. In fact, a similar bill was proposed and defeated in New York a few years ago, so there's some momentum for this kind of approach to the housing situation. The California bill began as a response to data from the California Association of Realtors. It said that investors accounted for 51% of residential sales in the third quarter of last year, while the national average was only 19%. That spooked lawmakers who quickly churned out this legislation. Their hope? To keep investors from outbidding regular folks who are buying homes for their personal use. But that's wrongheaded at best, and really bad for anyone who buys a home in California, whether they are an investor or not. It Won't Create More Housing What will this legislation really do? The California real estate insiders say it won't put more homes on the market. Instead, it will shrink the inventory of homes because homeowners who want to sell will be forced to rent their homes until the seven years are up. If this becomes law, it will also contribute only 30% of the funds to the creation of affordable housing. Another 20% will be given to schools, 40% to infrastructure, and about 10% for the administration of the program. Plus, the money would go to the taxpayer's county and not the county where the property was sold. Will it discourage investors? Likely, yes, but with bad results for California. Investors help create housing by renovating homes which improve neighborhoods and communities. That also helps local governments meet state mandates for the creation of new housing, which, critics say, they can't do without the help of the private sector. Why Defeat this Bill? Five important reasons to defeat this bill include: 1 - It does not create affordable housing or reduce home prices. 2 - It would discourage people from moving to avoid the tax (and stifle the market). 3 - It would only contribute 30% of the funds toward the creation of affordable housing. 4 - It would contribute the rest of the money to the taxpayer's county and not the cou
Ep 1161The Real Estate News Brief: Fed's Rate Hike, Inflation Projections, Single-Family Rent Growth
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending March 19th, 2022... we check on the Fed's rate hike, look at a range of inflation projections, and get the latest update on single-family rent growth. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week, and the first interest rate hike in four years. The Federal Reserve has said that a quarter point rate hike was likely at its March meeting to control inflation, and that's exactly what committee members approved. That puts the overnight lending rate between a quarter and a half point. The Fed warned that another six rate hikes are likely this year and that half point moves are a possibility. Fed Chief Jerome Powell says: "I guess I would say the expectation still is that inflation will come down in the second half of this year, but we still expect inflation to be high this year." (1) The Fed is expecting inflation will average 4.3% for the year. Inflation is currently running at 7.9%. If you remove food and energy from the calculation, the Consumer Price Index or CPI is 6.4%. The Russian war on Ukraine is expected to push prices even higher. (2) A survey by the New York Federal Reserve shows that many Americans believe that inflation will be running a lot higher than the Fed is predicting – at about 6% for the year. MarketWatch also reports that some analysts are forecasting even higher rates of about 9% by next spring. (3) The latest report on wholesale inflation shows that wholesale prices rose .8% in February. That brings the wholesale rate of inflation up to 10%. But as MarketWatch reports, there is a "silver lining" in this data because the core rate of wholesale inflation, which excludes food and fuel, was only up .2% for the month. On the other hand, economists say we haven't yet seen the war's impact on commodity prices. An Oxford Economics economist told MarketWatch: "Inflation in the pipeline is showing few signs of decelerating in the near term, especially as the Russia-Ukraine war wreaks havoc in energy and other commodity markets." (4) The latest unemployment report shows a dip in applications. They dropped to 214,000 which is a 2-and-a-half-month low. The total number of continuing claims is also lower, at 1.42 million. Companies are holding off on layoffs because of the labor shortage, and employees are enjoying more options when it comes to who they are going to work for. (5) Builders broke more ground on new homes in February. The government says that new home starts rose 6.8% in February. On an annual basis, they were up 22% compared to last February. Most of the increase was driven by single-family home construction with a 5.7% increase. There was a drop in permit applications however, for both single-family and multi-family projects. As MarketWatch reports, builders may be focusing more on the permits they already have than they are on getting new ones. (6) Existing home sales were down in February. The National Association of Realtors says they decreased 7.2% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.02 million. NAR'S chief economist, Lawrence Yun, says: "Housing affordability continues to be a major challenge, as buyers are getting a double whammy – rising mortgage rates and sustained prices increases." (7) Mortgage Rates And those mortgage rates did jump higher this last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage broke through the 4% mark for the first time since May, 2019. It was up 31 basis points to 4.16%. The 15-year was up 30 basis points to 3.39%. (8) In other news making headlines… Single-Family Rents Single-family rents continue to run hot with rents in some metros rising four times faster than they did last year. The index shows that rental prices are up 12.6% on average compared to 2.6% last year. (9) CoreLogic offered an example saying that tenants with a $1500 a month rent might get a renewal letter that raises the rent to almost $2,100 a month. But again, that's where rents are rising the fastest. Miami tops that list with rents that are jumping 38.6% year-over-year. But rent growth is between 15 and 20% in many of the other largest U.S. metros, like Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Diego, Austin, Boston, Dallas, and Atlanta. Russians Unloading Homes Wealthy Russians are pumping luxury homes back into the market, as they try to offload their U.S. assets. The New York Post cites several examples of new multi-million dollar listings by Russian owners, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (10) One of the areas where these homes are popping up is called "Little Moscow" in Sunny Isles Beach, Florida. Brokers say that their phones are "blowing up" with calls from panicked Russian homeowners. They want to know how much their properties are worth and they want to sell quickly to all-cash buyers. They say active listings in that area have suddenly surged about 9%. Best Time to Li
Ep 1160The Real Estate News Brief : Russia & U.S. Real Estate, Homebuyer Competition, Court Blocks "Love Letter" Ban
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending March 12th, 2022... we'll take a look at how the Russian invasion of Ukraine could affect the U.S. housing market, the number of homes selling for more than 100,000 over asking price, and why a federal court blocked a ban on homebuyer "love letters." Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week, which includes the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. Housing experts have been weighing in on whether this will impact the real estate market. According to a blog post by the National Association of Realtors, Russian buyers account for less than 1% of foreign purchases. Most of that activity has been in Florida, Georgia and New York. But that reduces Russian input to .2% in Florida, for example. As a result, NAR researchers don't think we'll see any major disruptions for real estate. If anything, it could give domestic buyers a little less competition. It could also ease pressure on the supply chain. But they also caution that higher oil prices, interest rate hikes, and other economic impacts could be disruptive for housing over the long term. (1) Inflation is one of those indicators that economists are watching closely. The latest report shows the annual rate of inflation was 7.9% in February. That's a 40-year-high for the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. It was up .8% for the month which was higher than Wall Street economists expected. .5% of the increase went to housing, which includes rent. Higher prices for gas and food are also contributing to inflation. (2) The latest unemployment report shows an increase in initial claims. They were up 11,000 to a total of 227,000 mostly because of a surge in claims in California and New York. MarketWatch says that economists are expecting claims to return to the 200,000 level in the near future. They had previously fallen to 188,000 which is a 52-year-low. Continuing claims were also higher last week. They rose to 1.49 million but that's also considered extremely low. (3) Employment numbers show that the job market is "red hot" and the so-called "Great Resignation" continues. The number of job openings fell slightly to 11.3 million in January, but that's not far below a record 11.5 million in December. 4.3 million people quit their jobs for other jobs. Layoffs are also at record lows as employees try to fill all those open positions. MarketWatch says that in January, 6.1 million people left their jobs while 6.5 million were hired. (4) Consumer sentiment is slipping because of high prices and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The University of Michigan's latest consumer sentiment survey shows a decline from 62.8 to 59.7. Many expect the situation to impact their personal finances during the course of this year. (5) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates reversed course slightly and moved higher after two weeks of declines that brought them below 4%. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 9 basis points to 3.85%. The 15-year was up 8 points to 3.09%. Rates have been volatile because of the war in Ukraine. (6) In other news making headlines... Bidding Wars Continue Among Homebuyers Competition is fierce among homebuyers. Redfin says that almost 6,000 U.S. homes were sold for more than $100,000 over asking price, so far this year. At the same time last year, just 2,400 had sold for that much. The largest portion of those highly priced homes were in the Los Angeles area. In fact, most of the top ten metros were in California, but Seattle, Boston, Denver and New York also made the list. (7) A Los Angeles Redfin agent says: "On top of a lack of homes for sale, which makes everything a hot commodity, buyers are just plain eager. They're anxious to purchase a home ASAP because as rates rise, they won't be able to afford the homes they're looking at now." Federal Court Block Oregon's Love Letter Ban A federal court has ruled that Oregon's ban on homebuyer "love letters" is a violation of First Amendment rights. Buyers write letters to make a more personal connection with sellers. That might include how much they would love to live in the home, along with details about themselves and their families. (8) Oregon became the first state in the nation to ban these letters because sellers might use the information in a discriminatory way, which is a violation of the fair housing laws. The National Association of Realtors has also warned against the use of love letters, and many brokers and agents refused to deliver them. Attorney Daniel Ortner of the Pacific Legal Foundation says in a statement: "Love letters communicate information that helps sellers select the best offer. The state cannot ban important speech because someone might misuse it." What's Prompting "The Great Resignation"? If you are wondering what's causing the so-called "Great Resignation" that I mentioned previously, The
Ep 1159The Real Estate News Brief: Fed's Rate Hike Plan, Record High Home Equity, Land Rush for Autonomous Trucks
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending March 5th, 2022... you'll hear about the Fed's rate hike plan, new figures on record high home equity, and why there's a land rush for autonomous trucks. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week, and more aggressive talk about rate hikes to control inflation. Fed Chief Jerome Powell spoke before Congress and said he will support a quarter percent hike on the Federal Funds rate at the next policy meeting. He also anticipates that this will be one of a series of rate hikes this year, and that one or two of them would be more than a quarter point. (1) One big concern is the impact the war in Ukraine will have on prices. We're already seeing higher gas prices than we've ever seen before. Realtor.com also reports that high heating bills are giving many homeowners sticker shock. A PG&E spokesperson said in a TV interview that natural gas prices are 90% higher this winter, than last. (2) And Powell doesn't think inflation will go away anytime soon. He said during his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee: "We're going to see upward pressure on inflation, at least for a while." He also said this is not going to help supply chain issues. The unemployment report was good news. Jobless claims were down to a two-month low of just 215,000 applications. As MarketWatch reports, "the economy appears to have regained some momentum" after a slowdown at the end of last year, thanks to a big drop in COVID cases and the lifting of coronavirus restrictions. (3) Job growth was also impressive. The Labor Department reported a gain of 678,000 jobs in February. Most of them were for leisure and hospitality jobs, along with education, health, and professional services, but the construction industry also saw big gains. The official unemployment rate is now 3.8%. (4) Builders started pouring money into projects in January. The Commerce Department says that construction spending was up 8.2% year-over-year, after a 1.3% increase from December to January. Spending for single-family construction was up 1.2% in January and "down" .1% for multi-family. There was also a big jump in private non-residential construction such as gas and oil well drilling. But the biggest gain was 13.8% for federal government projects. (5) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates were down again last week, as investors moved more money into bonds because of the war in Ukraine. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 3.76% while the 15-year was 3.01%. (6) In other news making headlines… Homeowners Tapping Into Home Equity Homeowners are seeing record amounts of equity as home prices continue to rise. Black Knight says the average equity is $185,000 for people with a mortgage. That does "not" include the 20% amount that lenders want mortgage holders to retain. (7) Urban Institute's Karen Kaul says we'll probably see more people tapping into that equity this year, but due to rising interest rates they probably won't be doing a cash-out refi. She says many will opt for second lien products such as a HELOC, which many people use to remodel a home. Heating & Cooling Supply Chain Issues If higher energy costs aren't enough to make you cringe, it's growing more difficult to get parts to fix a broken furnace or air conditioner. The Wall Street Journal reports that HVAC companies are struggling to get parts for both residential and commercial buildings. Those bottlenecks add to the challenge of getting other necessary construction materials like windows, garage doors, and paint. (8) One thing that is increasing the demand for heating and cooling upgrades is the rise in remote work. The Journal says that many remote workers want new climate control technology and that HVAC backlogs are becoming "very, very disruptive." Land Rush for Autonomous Trucks? There's another interesting twist to our high tech future, and possibly something that will help with supply chain issues. The Journal reports that a land grab is beginning for the parking of self-driving trucks near big cities. It reports that Philadelphia-based investor Alterra Property Group is teaming up with autonomous-truck company Embark Trucks to buy properties across the country. (9) Embark plans to launch its first trucks in Sunbelt states like California and Texas. That's expected to take place in 2024. The trucks would be autonomous on highways and taken over by humans on city streets. Vacant Properties in the U.S. While the real estate market operates with a very tight inventory, you might be curious to know how many homes are sitting vacant. According to LendingTree, there are 16 million of them, with the most number of vacant homes in Vermont, Maine, and Alaska. The vacancy rate in those three states is between 20 and 22%. The states with the least number of vacant homes are Oregon, Washington, a
Ep 1158My New Home Is Missing a Garage Door!
Home builders are facing all sorts of supply chain issues that are contributing to higher prices and construction delays. Some are hoarding supplies in rented warehouses while others are putting in ghost orders for projects that don't exist yet. Whatever magic tricks they have to perform, they are running into problems right up to the finish line, including the almost impossible task of finding a garage door. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. No Garage Door The dilemma facing builders prompted a recent headline in the New York Times that reads: "4 Bed, 3 Bath, No Garage Door: The Unlikely Woes Holding Up Home Building." (1) Rick Palacios, Jr. of John Burns Real Estate Consulting told the Times: "Garage doors are a nightmare." The article says that almost everyone is having a difficult time getting garage doors right now, and that prices have doubled or tripled for those doors. Plus, it could take several weeks to get one. Builders who used to order them a few weeks before a home is finished are now ordering them before they break ground. It's crucial to get that garage door in place. In many places, a new home won't pass inspection if it isn't completely finished. And that brings the project to a grinding halt including buyers who can't move in, and builders who don't get paid. A developer working on one of our RealWealth syndications in Reno says he had to buy a truck specifically to pick up materials wherever they can find them, even if it meant driving to Denver. He says the company he was working with locally hasn't been able to get any garage doors for months now and had to lay off their entire work force. That company is now filing for bankruptcy. In one of our residential developments, our team was able to negotiate with the city to close on the home without a garage door, so that families could move into their home. Garage As a Necessity The garage is seen as a necessary part of a home in most parts of the country. And with many people moving farther away from cities because they can work remotely, the car becomes even more important, along with a garage to house the car and the garage door. Many people use the garage as their main entry into the home. The Times says that 9 out of 10 new single-family homes had one in 2020. The article had photos of homes that were otherwise done except for the garage door, which is covered with plywood. Some builders are installing cheap, temporary doors until the better ones arrive. But it's not what new homeowners want to see as they do a walk-through. The difficulty getting a garage door is a final gotcha moment for builders who've already been doing a tap dance to get the materials they need. Along with a materials shortage, prices have gone up by at least 50% for most things. Erin Roberts of Ernst Young told Construction Dive: "It's as bad as any time during COVID." (2) Skyrocketing Prices, Delays The Associated General Contractors of America says prices for steel mill products have gone up the most in the last year. They're up 112%. Prices for steel pipe and tubing are up 78%. Plastic construction products are up 35%. Lumber and plywood are up 21%. The list goes on. And then there are the delays in getting those more expensive supplies. Roofing materials, steel bar joists and metal decking are all taking 8 to 10 months. Aluminum windows, structural steel, and metal studs are taking almost as long. Construction Dive says that roofing materials are "as scarce as hen's teeth." Peter Guffo of Boston-based Suffolk Construction's South Region told Construction Dive: "We're at the point now where we're warehousing materials, and getting them wherever we can. If you have to move it twice, you move it twice." He says the cost of moving supplies twice is much less than not having those supplies and halting construction. The New Supply Chain Setback Now, the Russian invasion of the Ukraine is throwing another monkey wrench into supply chain slowdowns. As the U.S. and other NATO countries impose economic sanctions, and global companies cut off trade with Russia, there are new supply chain issues to deal with. (3) One of the big ones is oil. Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer, and supplies about one of every ten barrels of oil used by the global economy. Losing that oil supply is raising the price of oil elsewhere and that's increasing costs for production and transportation. Russia also provides about one fifth of the world's supply of natural gas. Both Russia and Ukraine are major players in the export of wheat, corn, barley, and fertilizer. Some materials and metals used by the semiconductor industry also come from Russia. Flight diversions and cancellations have put pressure on cargo space which is causing new supply chain delays. Those issues may not directly impact U.S. homebuilding, but they add to the increasing complexity of getting supplies produced and
Ep 1157Free Housing for Ukrainian Refugees
Airbnb is offering free temporary housing for 100,000 Ukrainian refugees. It announced the effort in partnership with it's charitable arm, Airbnb.org, and the generosity of its hosts. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. As we've been hearing, many Ukrainians are fleeing their country because of the Russian invasion. The accommodations will be offered to people with immediate housing needs, paid for by Airbnb, the Airbnb.org Refugee Fund, and hosts that offer their homes and discounts for those accommodations. Help During Moments of Crisis Airbnb sent letters to European governments detailing the support that's being offered. They were signed by CEO Brian Chesky and other company officials. The letters went to officials in Poland, Germany, Hungary, and Romania. Airbnb says it will try to accommodate any special needs, including the possibility of longer-term stays. Airbnb and its charitable arm have helped more than 50,000 refugees over the last five years. More than 4,000 donors have contributed to Airbnb.org's "refugee fund" to help pay for that effort. Just recently, it announced that it helped 21,300 Afghan refugees and is working on helping another 20,000 from Afghanistan, Africa, the Middle East, Central and South America. The offer to help Ukrainian refugees will add another 100,000 to those numbers. COVID-19 Accommodations for Relief Workers There was a huge effort by Airbnb and hosts to help frontline workers during the initial spread of COVID-19. That helped put tens of thousands of healthcare professionals and relief workers where they were needed the most. Airbnb.org also helped victims of floods that devastated parts of Western Europe last year. Airbnb.org says it is working to establish partnerships in countries where Ukrainian refugees are fleeing. In the meantime, it says that people who need immediate support should contact the UN Refugee Agency. If you'd like to read more about this effort, or accommodations you'd like to provide to refugees, you'll find a link to the Airbnb announcement in the show notes for this episode at newsforinvestors.com. Also, please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join our real estate investor network for free at newsforinvestors.com. That gives you access to the Investor Portal where you'll find information on rental markets and sample property pro-formas. You can also connect with our experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://news.airbnb.com/help-ukraine/
Ep 1156Buying vs. Renting in Largest U.S. Cities
Rents are not just making a rebound after a dip during the pandemic. They are blowing right past the monthly cost of buying a home in more than half of the largest U.S. markets. A new realtor.com report says they've been rising so fast, it's now more affordable to buy a home in 26 U.S. cities, than it is to rent. (1) Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. January was the eighth month in a row that rents have shown double digit growth in the U.S. Realtor.com says the year-over-year increase hit 19.8% in January. That kind of growth is almost double the monthly cost increase for buying a home – which started the year at 11%. Rent Growth Breakdown Rents have risen the most for studio apartments. Those rents are up 21% or about $256 a month, compared to a year earlier. One- and two-bedroom units are up 19.2% which adds about $266 dollars to the monthly rent for a one-bedroom and about $323 for a two-bedroom. Higher rents mean that the monthly cost of a starter home is about 20.6% lower than it is for renting in 26 of the 50 largest metros. That translates to a $323 monthly savings, for home buyers in those metros. Top Three Buying Markets The realtor.com report shows that the three top markets that favor buying over renting provide an even bigger discount. 1 - In Birmingham, Alabama, the monthly cost for a starter home is just $668 compared to a median rent of $1,201. That's a 44.3% savings or about $533 a month. 2 - In Cleveland, Ohio, the monthly buying cost is $809 versus $1,325 a month for rent. That's a 38.9% difference or about $516. 3 - In Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, homebuyers are paying $945 a month compared to a median monthly rent of $1,530. That's a 38.3% savings or about $585. But realtor.com says the trend is not universal. While it's pricier to rent than to buy in 26 metros, it's still more affordable to rent in 24 others. Realtor.com says the price difference in those metros makes it about 24.8% more expensive to buy than to rent, giving renters a monthly savings of about $536. In cities with a lot of big tech, buyers are shelling out even more money per month. That cost is about 41.6% higher per month than renting. Rent vs. Buying in Tech Markets The top three tech metros where buying is a whole lot more expensive than renting include: 1 - Austin, Texas, where the monthly cost of buying is about 76.1% higher than renting. 2 - New York City where buyers pay an extra 52.4% month over renting. 3 - And San Francisco where the monthly cost of buying is about 49.1% more expensive. Realtor.com's chief economist Danielle Hale says: "While both rental and home-buying costs are rising, a number of factors could tip the affordability scale in favor of first-time buying for many Americans this year. She says: "Rents are forecasted to outpace listing price growth in 2022 and are already accelerating across all unit sizes." She also says that surveys show a majority of landlords plan to raise their rental rates even higher this year. Florida Metros Top Rent Growth List The metros where rents are rising the fastest are all in Florida. Realtor.com's list of the Top 10 Markets for Rent Increases in January 2022 list Miami, Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville as the top four. We'll have a link to that report in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can also visit our Learning Center while you are there and join our network for access to our Investor Portal. It's free to join. Members can look at sample property pro-formas, and connect with our experienced investment counselors. The portal also offers access to property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening, and please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://www.realtor.com/research/january-2022-rent/
Ep 1155The Real Estate News Brief: Mortgage Rates Hit 4%, Homebuyer Competition, Vacation Home Demand
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending February 26th, 2022... mortgage rates move past the 4% level, homebuyers battle it out in January, and big investors target vacation homes. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/real-estate-news-real-estate-investing-podcast/id1079952715 Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week. Concerns about inflation continue. The Federal Reserve's preferred monitoring tool, known as the PCE Index, shows a .6% increase in January for a yearly rate of 6.1%. (1) That's slightly lower than the more widely known CPI or Consumer Price Index. It shows an annual rate of inflation, at 7.5%. Companies are raising prices because of labor shortages and supply chain issues. Russian military action in Ukraine is also contributing to inflation worries, especially for oil, grains, and metals. Some economists believe a full-scale Russian invasion will push the CPI as high as 10%. If that happens, it would be the highest year-over-year rate of inflation since 1981. (2) The U.S. labor market remains strong. Jobless claims fell again last week. They were down 17,000 to a total of 232,000. Continuing claims also tumbled. They were down 112,000 to 1.48 million. That's the lowest they've been since March 1970. (3) Higher mortgage rates are also impacting demand for new homes. The government says that sales were down 4.5% in January to an annual rate of 801,000 homes. But regional numbers varied a lot with sales in the Northeast down 10.7% while sales in the West were actually up slightly, by 1.2%. (4) Existing home sales were also down. The National Association of Realtors says that pending home sales fell 5.7% in January. Year-over-year, they are down 9.5%. It was the third month in a row that sales were down, thanks to a tight supply, higher interest rates, and higher home prices. (5) Home prices are up by almost 19% year-over-year. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indexes show that Phoenix had the highest rate of growth at 32.5% year-over-year. Tampa and Miami were close behind at 19.4% and 27.3% respectively. An FHFA report on home prices shows that Arizona, Utah, and Idaho had the strongest home price growth. The District of Columbia, Louisiana, and North Dakota had the weakest. (6) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates went in both directions last week and remain in the 4% range. According to Freddie Mac's latest report, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is down slightly, to 3.89%. But the Mortgage Bankers Association says they did a U-turn shortly after Freddie's report. The MBA says the average lender is currently quoting conventional 30-year fixed-rate loans at well over 4%. (7) (8) In other news making headlines... Homebuyer Competition at Record High Competition is fierce among homebuyers. Redfin says that 70% of the offers written by Redfin agents faced bidding wars in January. That's up from 67.7% in December and 61% last year. (9) Redfin says that buyers are rushing to buy homes before interest rates move even higher. The metros with the strongest competition were Spokane and Seattle in Washington state, and Sacramento in California. A Redfin agent in Spokane says that one of her listings had 45 showings in five days and received 14 offers. Another one of her listings had 12 offers and sold for $120,000 over the list price of $525,000. Investor Demand for Vacation Homes Big investors are showing more interest in vacation homes. Demand for vacation homes and short-term rentals, in general, has been growing since the pandemic began. They've typically been owned and operated by individual homeowners or small investors. But that's changing. (10) The Wall Street Journal reports that big investment firms are capturing more of the short-term rental market. It offers an example, reporting that New York Investment firm, Saluda Grade, has teamed up with AvantStay to purchase $500 million worth of vacation homes. They will be just outside of major metros, making it easy for clients to take short vacations and possibly work remotely. It can be a challenging business to operate short-term rentals, however. Many cities are tightening the rules and making it tough on short-term rental investors who've already purchased properties or would like to. That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-pce-inflation-index-and-consumer-spending-11645795161?mod=mw_latestnews 2 -ht
Ep 1154The Real Estate News Brief: Rate Hike Forecasts, New Rent Growth Record, Disney Gets Into Housing
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending February 19th, 2022… what economists are saying about rate hikes, where rents are growing the fastest, and a new residential development plan for Disney fans. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week, and what economists are saying about inflation and rate hikes. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes the Fed should push rates up a full point in the near term. His comments about the need for more aggressive action is also pushing rate hike forecasts as high as seven this year. Bullard told CNBC: "I do think we need to front-load more of our planned removal of accommodation than we would have previously." (1) The government reported last week that the annual rate of inflation hit 7.5%. (2) Unemployment applications were up 23,000 last week, but economists are not concerned about the strength of the job market. As CNBC reports, millions of businesses have open positions they'd like to fill, so we probably won't see many layoffs. Currently, there are 11 million job openings. (3) Existing home sales were up almost 7% from December to January for a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.5 million homes. That's despite the tight inventory which has now dropped to a 1.6-month supply. Economists had predicted sales of 6.1 million homes. Sales were up in all parts of the country, but sales were strongest in the South with a 9% increase. (4) Builders are letting up on the gas pedal to some degree. The Census Bureau reported that housing starts were down 4% in January. Economists say the decline reflects a number of obstacles that builders are dealing with including supply-chain issues, COVID-19 cases, and bad weather in some areas. Builders are also worried that higher mortgage rates could impact demand. Permits were up 1%. The chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Ian Shepherdson, told CNBC: "The housing market is set for a sustained softening over the next few months." (5) A monthly survey on homebuilder confidence was also down. The National Association of Home Builders says it fell for a second straight month, mostly due to supply chain delays. NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter says: "Production disruptions are so severe that many builders are waiting for months to receive cabinets, garage doors, countertops, and appliances." (6) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates have now jumped to their highest level since May 2019. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 23 basis points to 3.92% last week. The 15-year was up 22 points to 3.15%. (7) In other news making headlines… Rents Are Surging Higher Rent growth hit a new record in January. Redfin says the average asking rent was up 15.2% year-over-year. Rent growth was the highest in Portland, Oregon, and Austin, Texas at 39% and 35% respectively. Other metros in the top ten list include the Florida metros of Tampa, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, and Miami. They are all in the 30% range. (8) Redfin's chief economist Daryl Fairweather says that housing is expensive whether you are renting or buying. Redfin says the average monthly rent is now $1,891 while the average monthly mortgage payment is $1,595. Many consumers can't afford to buy a home, however, because of the down payment. Investors Buying Record Share of Homes That kind of rent growth is great motivation for investors who bought 18.4% of U.S. homes in the fourth quarter. That's almost 13% higher than Q4 of last year. Redfin says that investors are taking advantage of the strong demand for rentals and the incredible rent growth. (9) Redfin says that investors are paying high prices for homes because of that rent growth. Many are also paying in cash, which eliminates the expense of a loan. A typical price point for investors is about $433,000. That's up 10% from last year. Disney's Housing Development Plan If you love Disney theme parks, you may get the opportunity to enjoy the magic as your primary residence. The Walt Disney Company announced a residential development project called "Cotino" near Palm Springs, in Rancho Mirage. It'll be a 24-acre "grand oasis featuring clear turquoise waters with crystal lagoons." (10) It will house residents of all ages with a special section for the 55-plus age group. Homes will range in size from condos and single-family homes to larger estates. There will be a waterfront clubhouse, club-only beach area, water activities, and Disney events throughout the year. Disney cast members will run the community association. Day passes will also be available to non-residents. If you don't want to live in the desert, Disney says it is working on other locations for future developments as part of its "Storyliving by Disney" long-term plan. That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You c
Ep 1153A New Record for Real Estate Investors
Real estate investors were very busy in the second half of last year. A new Redfin study shows that they purchased a record share of U.S. homes in the fourth quarter. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. The Redfin study shows that investors bought about 80,000 homes in the fourth quarter. That's about 18.4% of all residential real estate sales for that time period. The investor home purchase share was 17.4% in the third quarter, and 12.6% a year earlier. (1) Share vs. Numbers While investors accounted for a record share of residential real estate purchases in the fourth quarter, the number of homes they bought dropped about 9% from the third quarter. They purchased about 88,000 homes in Q3 compared to 80,000 in Q4. The dip in quantity is due to the lack of inventory affecting all homebuyers. Redfin says it's also due to typically slower sales at the end of the year. Investors have been buying more homes despite skyrocketing home prices. Redfin says that prices were up 15% year-over-year in December. That's pushing many potential homebuyers out of the market, and increasing demand for rentals. It's also pushing rents higher. Redfin says the average monthly rent for a new lease was up 14% at the end of last year. Redfin economist Sheharyar Bokhari says: "While record-high home prices are problematic for individual homebuyers, they're one reason why investor demand is stronger than ever." She says: "Investors are chasing rising prices because rental payments are also skyrocketing, incentivizing investors who plan to rent out the homes they buy." Cash is King for Investors Most investors are also paying in cash, which reduces the overall cost of the home, and makes it hard for consumers to compete. Redfin says that 75% of investor purchases in the last quarter were paid for in cash. Bokhari says: "It's tough to compete with all-cash offers, and rising mortgage rates have a smaller impact on investors because they often don't use mortgages at all." Most Popular Price Category Mid-priced homes were the most popular with investors. They made up 37% of Q4 investor purchases. Low-priced homes made up about 32% of the deals and high-priced homes about 30%. Single-family homes were also the most popular type of home. Redfin says that three out of four investor purchases were single-family homes. Condos and coops accounted for 15%, townhouses for 6%, and small multifamilies for just under 4%. Demand for Single-Family Homes If you've been following the rental market, you know that single-family homes have surged in popularity because of the pandemic. More people can work remotely from home, and many have decided they need more space to do that. While many would like to buy a single-family home, it's tough for a lot of consumers to afford the high prices, so they continue to rent. The markets where investors bought the most homes were in the Sun Belt. Atlanta tops the list with investors buying 32.7% of the homes that sold in the fourth quarter. Charlotte was second with an investor share of 32%. Jacksonville was next followed by Las Vegas, and Phoenix. Jacksonville experienced the biggest increase in homes purchased by investors. Redfin says they more than doubled from the previous year with a 157% increase. If you'd like to see the Redfin report with data on investor activity in 40 different metros, we'll have a link in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can also visit our Learning Center while you are there and join our network for access to our Investor Portal. It's free to join. Members can look at sample property pro-formas, and connect with our experienced investment counselors. The portal also offers access to property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening, and please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 - https://www.redfin.com/news/investor-home-purchases-q4-2021/
Ep 1152Quiet Title Laws Allow Seizure of Some Midwest Homes
Some people in the Midwest are losing their homes because of a loophole in "quiet title" laws. Law experts say real estate opportunists are claiming that homes are abandoned, and are using the loophole to grab the home when homeowners are away. There are reports that this has been happening in Iowa but that quiet title laws in several states could be used to do the same thing. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Iowa Public Radio broke the story about a homeowner in Marshalltown, Iowa, outside of Des Moines and Cedar Rapids. (1) Natalia Esteban had purchased the home in 2001 with her ex-husband, before they divorced. She moved to California in 2018, but kept the house in Marshalltown where she returned each summer. Big Surprise for the Homeowner Esteban's daughter, Maria Kendall, lived in Marshalltown with her family and noticed a listing on Zillow one day, for her mom's house. Her mother was in California at the time, so Kendall called her mom to ask about the listing. It was a big surprise for Esteban who wasn't selling the house. They discovered that Esteban had lost the title, and the new owner had put the home up for sale. So how did the title transfer to whoever was selling her home? It's called "quiet title action" and is used to settle disputes over who owns a piece of property. There could be a dispute over a boundary, or who owns a home after the owner dies, or any number of things. In Esteban's case, Catherine Gooding petitioned for title of Estaban's home claiming the home was abandoned. She also claimed to have a tax certificate that proved Gooding was the new owner. As required by the quiet title law, she published notification of the title dispute three times in the local newspaper. You know, the kind of small-print listings that most people probably wouldn't see, let alone Esteban who was in California at the time. Even if she had looked at the paper, she may have missed it because she's not fluent in English. But Gooding followed the law and won her case by default because Esteban failed to show up in court. Loophole In Quiet Title Laws Legal experts say the loophole has two issues that make it somewhat easy to snatch the title on a home. The first issue is a vaguely written law on how a person can challenge ownership of a property. It requires that the person petitioning for title must have an interest in the property, but it reportedly doesn't provide details. The second issue is how the homeowner is contacted about the title dispute. The small-print notifications in the newspaper meet the legal requirement, but don't do a very good job at notifying homeowners, especially if they are not home at the time and are immigrants who are not fluent in English. Esteban's daughter told Iowa Public Radio that if she hadn't seen the listing on Zillow: "We would never have found out the house was sold. My mother would have come back to Iowa in the summer and she would have found out she doesn't have a house." Esteban went to court to fight for her home. It was revealed during that case, that Gooding had applied for a tax certificate but had never been granted one. The title ended up going back to Esteban, but unfortunately, she lost everything inside the home. The radio station says she lost many photos and family heirlooms from her native Mexico. Weak Quiet Title Laws In Several States The radio station reports that Gooding used the quiet title law to acquire more than 40 properties in the Marshalltown area. She did not respond to a request for comment but as the radio station points out, she followed a law with very few parameters. As for how often this happens overall, it's difficult to track because there's no code in the Iowa court system for "quiet title" transfers. In addition to Iowa, other states that have weak quiet title laws include Missouri, Nebraska, and Kansas. Legal experts are worried about this happening to other homeowners. Kansas City real estate attorney Mike White says he's seen many quiet title cases during his 50 years in the business. He says: "I'd say the average person knows absolutely nothing about quiet titles." And he says that quiet title laws throughout the Midwest don't do much to protect non-English speakers. Title insurance can protect homeowners from a dispute like this. While lenders require it, title insurance is optional for homeowners without a mortgage. (2) If you'd like to read more about this topic, you'll find links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can visit our Learning Center while you are there and join our network for access to our Investor Portal. It's free to join. Members can look at sample property pro-formas, and connect with our experienced investment counselors. The portal also offers access to property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening, and please remember to hit the subscribe button
Ep 1151The Real Estate News Brief: Inflation, Home Prices, Foreclosures
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending February 12th, 2022… the latest reading on inflation, home price growth, and foreclosures. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week. The latest inflation report shows that consumer prices notched up another .6% in January. That brings the annual rate of inflation to 7.5%, which is the highest inflation we've seen in 40 years. Much of the increase is due to the high cost of food, energy and housing costs, which include rents. According to MarketWatch, Wall Street analysts only expected a .4% gain in January. (1) If you strip out food and energy for a core rate of inflation, it's at 6%. That's still twice the rate the Federal Reserve would like to see. Shawn Huss at Warsaw Federal calls inflation an "economic killer." He wrote in an emailed newsletter: "It is a tax that does not get collected and if people believe prices will be higher in the future, inflation could become entrenched." Huss also has some good news. He says that: "Inflation expectations for the future remain relatively low. The 10-Year Treasury breakeven rate, or what the bond market expects inflation to run on average over the next 10 years, is a relatively low 2.42%." Jobless claims were down for a third week in a row. The Labor Department says there were 16,000 fewer initial state claims than the week before for a total of 223,000 applications. That's the lowest number we've seen since December. But the number of people already getting unemployment benefits stayed the same at about 1.62 million. Economists expect that fewer and fewer people will be collecting jobless benefits as the omicron wave diminishes. (2) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates are now at the highest level since the pandemic began. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 14 basis points higher last week, for a rate of 3.69%. The 15-year was up 16 points to an average of 2.93%. (3) Freddie expects the trend to continue because of the strong job market and the high rate of inflation, and says that that will probably take a bite out of homebuyer demand. In other news making headlines... Home Prices Higher in Q4 Homebuyers are facing higher home prices as well, although home price growth is expected to slow down with higher mortgage rates. The National Association of Realtors says the median sales price of a home was 15% higher in the fourth quarter of last year, compared to the year before. That includes both new and existing homes. That figure is down slightly from a 15.9% year-over-year increase in Q3. (4) NAR tracked mortgage rates in 183 metros and says that two-thirds of them posted double-digit appreciation. That's making it tough on homebuyers. The report says that the typical monthly mortgage payment is about $1,240 which is about $200 higher than it was a year ago. NAR'S chief economist Lawrence Yun, says that many homebuyers are getting forced out of the market because of high home prices, but he also says that: "Home prices should begin to normalize later in 2022 as more homes come on the market." More Foreclosure Activity Foreclosure activity is currently at its highest level since the start of the pandemic. ATTOM Data Solutions says it jumped 29% higher from December to January. That activity includes default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions. Year-over-year, they are up 139%. (5) RealtyTrac's Rick Sharga expects to see more increases throughout the year, but he also says: "It's likely that foreclosure activity will remain below historically normal levels until the end of 2022." Back in 2019, foreclosure activity was about 60% higher. Sharga wasn't surprised by the January increase because foreclosures often slow down during the holidays and then surge a bit at the beginning of the year. He says: "This year, the increases were probably a little more dramatic than usual since foreclosure restrictions placed on mortgage services by the CFPB expired at the end of December." Metros with the highest foreclosure activity include: Detroit; Atlantic City, New Jersey; Cleveland; Columbia, South Carolina; and Trenton, New Jersey. That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! To learn more about real estate investing, become a RealWealth member for free at newsforinvestors.com. You will have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-consumer-price-index-11644498273?mod=mw_latestnews 2 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-jobless-claims-fall-for-third-straight-week-11644500332?
Ep 1150Metaverse Real Estate Sales Are Soaring!
There's a real estate boom going on in the metaverse! They hit $500 million dollars last year, and are expected to double this year, to one billion. The uptrend took off recently when Facebook announced plans to expand into the metaverse and changed its corporate name to Meta Platforms. CNBC reports that virtual real estate sales have gone up ninefold since Facebook's announcement in October. (1) Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. According to metaverse data provider, MetaMetric Solutions, investors spent a total of $83 million in January sales alone. Analysts based their 2022 projections on that amount of spending throughout the year. But some analysts are anticipating more growth. Analytics firm BrandEssence Market Research expects the virtual real estate market to grow at a compound annual rate of 31% a year through 2028. What is the Metaverse? But what exactly is the metaverse? And why are investors buying real estate that has no corresponding plot of land on this earth? Facebook explains it like this: "The "metaverse" is a set of virtual spaces where you can create and explore with other people who aren't in the same physical space as you. You'll be able to hang out with friends, work, play, learn, shop, create and more. It's not necessarily about spending more time online – it's about making the time you do spend online more meaningful." (2) Andrew Kiguel of the Toronto-based Tokens.com told CNBC: "You can go to the carnival, you can go to a music concert, you can go to a museum." This activity is carried out with a cartoon-like character called an avatar that represents you in your virtual world. (3) Many celebrities have already ventured into the metaverse with their avatars, including Justin Bieber, Ariana Grande, DJ Marshmello, and Paris Hilton. She threw a New Year's Eve party on her own virtual island. Real Dollars for Unreal Properties To capitalize on this idea of social interaction in the metaverse, investors are paying real dollars for unreall properties in prime locations that could, some day, be worth tons of money. Maybe. Prices are going up fast right now. Kiegel says that many properties are up 4 to 500% in just the last few months. Popular Metaverse Platforms There are many metaverse platforms, and new ones are launching every day, but there are just four that are attracting most of the land sales right now. The "Big Four" are Sandbox, Decentraland, Cryptovoxels, and Somnium. The Sandbox is the biggest metaverse real estate platform. It has more than 166,000 parcels of land that measure 106 yards by 106 yards each. In December, they each sold for an ether equivalent of $12,700. An ether is the token used for Ethereum transactions, much like a bitcoin. Investors can use cryptocurrency to buy, develop, and sell parcels of land. Like the real world of real estate, their value can rise as they are upgraded and turned into more desirable properties. Metaverse real estate investor and advisory firm, Republic Realm, is creating 100 so-called "Fantasy Islands" with dream-like villas and amenities that include boats and jet skis. The company sold 90 of the properties for $15,000 apiece on the first day of sales, and some of the buyers are relisting them for more than $100,000. Republic Realm recently paid a record $4.3 million for land in the Sandbox. According to the Wall Street Journal, the company now owns more than 2,500 plots of virtual land in 19 different meta-worlds. It bought the $4.3 million dollar property from Atari SA. Two Ways to Buy Virtual Land There are two ways to buy virtual land – directly from the platform or from a developer. Investors can also make changes, although it's not as easy as picking up a paint brush, because you have to change the code. Tokens.com set the previous record when it bought digital land for $2.43 million in the "fashion district" part of Decentraland. The metaverse real estate market is becoming a high-stakes investment play, although it's also highly speculative. Republic Realm's CEO Janine Yorio says it's a very risky business and you should only invest what you can afford to lose. She says: "It's highly speculative. It's also blockchain-based. And as we all know, crypto is highly volatile. But it can also be massively rewarding." Choosing Your Property As for how to choose your property, she doesn't believe that location matters. She believes that values will increase depending on what people do with the land. That's apparently because getting from one place to another is as simple as "teleporting." But other investors follow the real world real estate rule on location. One example is a $450,000 purchase of a property in the Sandbox so the buyer could be Snoop Dog's neighbor, according to Seeking Alpha. (4) There are some who feel that metaverse land sales are a crypto ponzi scheme. Investors buy land at increasingly higher prices, but there's no underl
Ep 1149The Real Estate News Brief: Single-Family Construction, Rising Mortgage Rates, Tampa Bay Real Estate NFT
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending February 5th, 2022... the growth of construction spending for single-family homes, worries over rising mortgage rates, and the futuristic auction of a Tampa Bay home. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week, and good news about the job market. The government says that U.S. companies added 467,000 jobs in January. That's after the creation of 510,000 jobs in December. Wall Street economists has only predicted 150,000 new jobs for January and 200,000 for December. (1) There's no lack of jobs, but many people have missed work recently because of the omicron surge. As MarketWatch reports, a record 7.8 million people called in sick last month. That helped drive the unemployment rate higher from 3.9% to 4%. But the omicron wave is receding in many parts of the country, and the number of unemployment applications was down for a second week in a row. There were just 23,000 people applying for benefits last week. (2) The homeownership rate moved slightly higher in the fourth quarter of last year. Realtor.com reports a total of 83.5 million owner-occupied households for a homeownership rate of 65.5%. That's .3% higher than the third quarter. If you break that down by age group, people who are 65 or older have the highest homeownership rate at 79.4%. The lowest homeownership rate is 38.3% for people younger than 35. Back in 2004, the homeownership rate hit a high of 69.2%. (3) 2021 was a big year for private residential construction spending. Money spent to build single-family homes was up 33% compared to 2020. It was up about half that much for multi-family. The two categories that saw the least amount of spending growth were public safety and office space. Spending for those categories was down 33 and 32% respectively. (4) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates are holding steady at around 3.55% for a thirty-year fixed-rate mortgage. Freddie Mac says the average for the 15-year was down 3 basis points this last week to 2.77%. The mortgage guarantor says the economic impact of the omicron surge is keeping mortgage rates from rising higher, but it also expects them to start creeping higher again this spring and summer. (5) In other news making headlines... Keeping Rates Low with Rate Locks Home buyers are keeping a close watch on mortgage rates, and some are taking advantage of "rate locks." It costs extra to buy a rate lock, but Realtor.com says it can prevent a big surprise when it's time to buy. The most common rate lock is for 30 days, but buyers can get them for various amounts of time, from 15 days to 45 days or longer. (6) Buyers can also lower their mortgage rates by paying discount points. One point costs 1% of the loan amount, and could reduce your mortgage rate by about .25%. It's not time to panic however. Interest rates are still at historic lows. The National Association of Realtors doesn't expect them to rise that quickly. It is predicting they'll average just 3.9% by the end of this year. Young Adults Continue to Live with Parents Many potential homebuyers are young adults who continue to live with their parents as the pandemic shakes out. NAR says that 17.8% of adults ages 25 to 34 moved back in with mom and dad in 2020. That's the highest level since 1960. In 2021, that percentage remained high at 17%. (7) But the trend has evolved from the initial impact of the pandemic, to other related trends. NAR'S Jessie Lautz writes: "Some young adults may have recently moved back home due to the flexibility of remote work trends and to avoid paying high rents." She says it could also be due to job losses, or getting an education, but she says: "Regardless of the reason, living with family may provide a benefit to potential first-time home buyers." If children are living at home rent-free, it makes it easier for them to save up for a down payment. Tampa Home Hit Auction Block as NFT A Tampa Bay home is going on the auction block as the first home to be sold as an NFT. That stands for Non-Fungible Token which is a unique digital image that's linked to a blockchain as proof of ownership. The home was turned into an NFT by first putting the home into an LLC, and then transforming the home's certificate of authenticity into an NFT. (8) What are the benefits of buying or selling a home as an NFT? It reportedly expedites the sale process, and according to some experts, is the future of real estate. As one person described the process to the Tampa Bay Times: "You're essentially selling a company and a company owns that house." You can read more about that and our other stories by clicking on a link in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network
Ep 1148Real Estate Upgrade with Digital Twin Technology
Las Vegas has unveiled a digital twin of its downtown area to help city planners deal with future growth and other issues, like climate change. It's a virtual modeling system by a Chicago-based company called Cityzenith. It says that Las Vegas has completed an initial set up phase, and is now headed into phase two. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Cityzenith says its SmartWorld Digital Twin technology will help Las Vegas analyze issues involving mobility, air quality, noise pollution, water use, and carbon emissions coming from large downtown buildings. City planners will be able to analyze those emissions as they call for changes to reduce greenhouse gases to a net zero level. (1) Las Vegas Begins Phase Two Cityzenith CEO, Michael Jansen, says of the Las Vegas project: "The base twin is now complete, and in the second quarter of this year, stakeholders from Las Vegas will be invited to join phase 2 of the Digital Twin project." Stakeholders include real estate owners, government agencies, university researchers, data partners, architects, and casino operators. Jansen says that just 1.7% of American office buildings are "green." But he says that building owners won't have to shell out a lot of money for upgrades because Cityzenith has partners that will provide risk-free, no money down financing for retrofits. He says the digital twin platform combined with "creative financing" will make it easier for property owners to transition their buildings. Clean Cities, Clean Future This is just a first step for Cityzenith. It says on its website that the Las Vegas project is part of a much larger "Clean Cities, Clean Future" initiative. The company hopes to implement the digital twin platform in major cities throughout the world. Other cities adopting this technology include Los Angeles and Phoenix, but Cityzenith says that more than a dozen other cities and property owners are lined up to do the same. Cityzenith isn't the only one providing this technology. Ernst and Young issued a report last year called "Digital Twin: The Age of Aquarius in Construction and Real Estate." It predicts that the use of digital twins will become an important part of the real estate industry. (2) The report lists four ways that digital twins provide significant value: 1 - The first is to help with building maintenance and operations. It says the technology can increase efficiency by as much as 35% by determining wasteful expenses and hidden cost savings. 2 - The second is a substantial improvement to a building's environmental footprint. The report says the technology can identify how buildings impact the environment and help reduce emissions by as much as 50%. 3 - The third value proposition is a 20% increase in health and wellness. That would happen by improving unhealthy indoor environments that can lead to illness and lower productivity. 4 - And fourth - improvements to the way people use indoor space and interact within a building. The report estimates a 15% increase in space utilization, thanks to digital twin modeling. Built Environment with Real-Time Data The technology combines spatial data from the built environment with real-time data that is collected with sensors, and the internet of things. That also allows researchers to run "what if" scenarios, and predict what actions may be needed to address any future issues or events. The CEO of data company, Terbine, that works with Cityzenith, talked about the virtues of this technology in a Construction Dive blog. (3) David Knight says: "Transitioning our home city into a clean, sustainable, and more attractive place to live and visit is a fantastic opportunity." He says: "What we're building here represents a model for how other cities can enable sustainability and a better quality of life for their citizens." If you'd like to know more about this topic, check for links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can also find out more about real estate investing at our website. It's free to join, and free to access hundreds of webinars and articles on real estate investing. You'll also have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas for new and existing rental homes, and connect with our network of resources. That includes experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://cityzenith.com/press 2 -https://www.ecmag.com/sites/default/files/Digital%20twin%20-%20the%20Age%20of%20Aquarius%20in%20construction%20and%20real%20estate.pdf 3 -https://www.constructiondive.com/news/las-vegas-unveils-digital-twin-of-downtown/617127/
Ep 1147Work from Anywhere & Make Airbnb Your Home
Airbnb is becoming more of a nomadic lifestyle hub than a vacation planning website. With the rise of remote work, many people are booking longer stays on Airbnb and taking their work with them, including Airbnb CEO, Brian Chesky. He recently announced that he'll be living on Airbnbs, and staying at a new place every few weeks. (1) Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. The pandemic has unleashed a big revolution in the way people live and work. While some people are looking for bigger single-family homes with yards, others are ditching the stay-at-home life altogether and becoming digital nomads. Airbnb caters to this lifestyle perfectly, with accommodations that can be as flexible as the remote worker schedule. Longer Airbnb Stays The Airbnb website shows how people are using short-term rentals as a way to travel while they work. In a news release about Chesky's plan to live on Airbnbs, it says almost 50% of the reservations in the third quarter of last year was for seven or more days. That's up from 44% in 2019. And, it says that one out of every five of the people who booked during Q3, booked for 28 days or longer. Airbnb said in the news release: "As the world undergoes a revolution in how we live and work, more people are blending life with travel." And that's exactly what Airbnb is researching with a campaign called: "Live Anywhere on Airbnb." "Live Anywhere on Airbnb" The campaign involves the selection of 12 individuals and families from nine countries around the world, who get to stay at Airbnbs for free for 10 months as part of an Airbnb research project. The only thing they have to do in exchange is to share their experiences with Airbnb. That campaign was underway in the middle of last year, and there are profiles of all the people participating in the project on the Airbnb website. Now Chesky will be also be contributing his feedback on the Live Anywhere trend as a nomadic remote worker, running his company from various Airbnb locations. Airbnb Trends The company is predicting that as the remote trend matures, more and more people will use Airbnbs to live, travel, and work at the same time. The company is also predicting that we'll see that people may venture farther away from home, and work for longer periods of time in other countries. Many may even give up their permanent address so they can live abroad unencumbered for however long the adventure lasts. Airbnb cited some data that shows international travel was already surging before the pandemic – from 25 million in 1950 to 1.4 billion in 2019. One trend that Airbnb has been seeing during the pandemic is an increase in bookings for rural areas. It says those bookings were up 85% in the third quarter of last year, compared with the third quarter of 2019. The length of time people are spending in Airbnbs has also increased dramatically. Airbnb says it grew 75% from the summer of 2019 to the summer of 2021. And those who are leading the fully nomadic lifestyle, the percentage has grown from 9% to 12% in one year from 2020 to 2021. Digital Nomad Visas Several countries are offering digital nomad visas. If you're interested in doing something like that, check out Spain, Portugal, Costa Rica, Brazil, Malta, and Indonesia, among others. (2) You'll find links for more information about the Airbnb lifestyle at newsforinvestors.com. Check the links at newsforinvestors.com, for more information on this topic. You can also find out more about real estate investing at our website. It's free to join, and free to access hundreds of webinars and articles on real estate investing. You'll also have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas for new and existing rental homes, and connect with our network of resources. That includes experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Show Notes link: https://www.newsforinvestors.com Links: 1 -https://news.airbnb.com/brian-chesky-to-live-on-airbnb-as-the-travel-revolution-becomes-reality/ 2 -https://www.investopedia.com/countries-offering-digital-nomad-visas-5190861
Ep 1146The Real Estate News Brief: Fed's Rate Hike Plan, 2022 Investor Concerns, Home Buyer Timeline
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending January 28th, 2022... the Fed's rate hike plan, what investors are saying about 2022 challenges, and what buyers are doing to purchase a home more quickly. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week. All eyes were on the Fed for changes in monetary policy after the central bank's two-day meeting. Worries about more aggressive action by the Fed to combat inflation didn't seem to be evident. Fed Chief Jerome Powell said that committee members are "of a mind to raise the federal funds rate at the March meeting" if economic conditions are appropriate for doing so. Wall Street economists are expecting a rate hike in March, along with three others this year, to control inflation. It's now running at an annual rate of about 7%, but Fed officials still believe it will settle back down as the year progresses and supply chain issues are resolved. Powell also said that the Fed might begin reducing it's $9 trillion balance sheet later this year, but that timeline will depend on "the incoming data and evolving outlook." (1) Meantime, the Commerce Department released a report on the GDP which shows the economy grew at an annual rate of 6.9% during the fourth quarter of last year. Much of that surge is due to businesses stocking up shelves for the holiday shopping season. That brings the full-year GDP up to 5.7%, which was also boosted by government stimulus. Prior to the pandemic, the GDP was only about 2.3%. MarketWatch says that economists expect strong growth to continue this year at an annual pace of at least 4%. (2) Jobless claims dipped last week, by about 30,000. The Labor Department says initial state claims were down to a total of 260,000. They had hit a three-month high in January, thanks to a wave of Omicron infections, but that outbreak has started to recede. MarketWatch reports that not a single state reported a big increase in unemployment applications. (3) Turning now to the housing market, new homes sales were up 12% in December to an annual rate of 811,000 homes. As buyers snatched up what they could, the supply was down 9%. The largest percentage of new homes was sold in the Midwest. That region alone was up 56%. (4) Pending home sales were down in December. According to the National Association of Realtors, those sales were down 3.8%. The Northeast and Western regions saw the biggest declines. (5) Inventory levels are a primary obstacle for many buyers, but higher home prices and higher mortgage rates are also pushing marginal buyers out of the market. Price growth did slow down a bit in December, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city price index. It shows that prices were up 18.3% year-over-year in November compared to 18.5% in October. (6) As MarketWatch reports, price growth may be slowing, but it doesn't mean prices are coming back down, especially with the kind of demand we're seeing from buyers. Consumers are feeling a bit less optimistic about the economy. Both the consumer confidence index and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index were down in January. Consumers have been worried about high prices as well as Omicron, although it appears that Omicron cases are decreasing. (7) (8) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates didn't move much last week. Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down one basis point to 3.55%. The 15-year was up one point to 2.8%. (9) Freddie Mac is forecasting slightly higher rates in 2022, but says it doesn't expect rates to go higher than 4%. (10) In other news making headlines... Investor Concerns The lack of inventory is a top concern among investors. A survey by the National Association of Realtors shows that 63% of the real estate investors listed inventory as the number one challenge. They listed high home prices as the second biggest challenge. (11) Those are the same two issues topping the previous two Investor Sentiment Surveys. NAR'S Rick Sharga says: "Together with supply chain disruptions which have caused product shortages and increased materials costs, it is not surprising that individual investors think that the market is not as healthy today as it was a year ago." Investors believe they'll face the same challenges over the next six months, which also include higher costs for materials, and higher interest rates. Sharga says: "About 88% of the investors surveyed were concerned about inflation having an impact on their business." Buy Now, Look Later The lack of inventory is forcing many buyers to grab what they can without looking at a lot of homes, or to skip the in-person tour altogether, and make an offer. NAR says the magic number is eight, for home tours, and that three of those tours are being done virtually. That's a median number. (12) Between 2009 and 2011, buyers were looking at a median of 12 homes before they made a de
Ep 1145Banner Year for Build-to-Rent
Build-to-rent communities are one of the hottest trends in rental real estate right now! Many people who can't own their own homes still want to live the single-family lifestyle. Demand is so hot, almost 80% of the renters participating in a RentCafe survey said they were "interested in living in a community of single-family homes." (1) And with such a tight supply of existing homes, newly constructed rental homes are getting the attention of investors. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. The RentCafe survey includes responses from 3,300 renters, and 78% of them confirmed that interest is growing in single-family rentals. Rentcafe.com says that last year, in 2021, there were three times the number of searches for rental homes as there were the year before, in 2020. Demand Grows for Single-Family Rentals Single-family rentals have been a hot investment choice for more than a decade, so it's not a new concept. The first big surge happened after the 2008 housing crisis when millions of homes were foreclosed but the former owners still wanted to live in detached homes. Investors bought the foreclosed homes and turned them into rentals. The pandemic has accelerated this demand once again because people want more privacy and more space, but there aren't enough existing properties to meet the demand so many investors and developers are building new rental homes. Last year, builders pumped 6,740 new build-to-rent homes into the market. This year, that number is expected to double to almost 14,000 newly constructed single-family rentals. These figures refer to rental homes that are built within communities, which some people are calling horizontal apartment communities. But the rental units are stand-alone homes, with yards. According to Shannon Hersker at Walker a Dunlop: "The pandemic just increased demand at a faster pace. People want to live in areas that are less dense, in communities that offer more space." And, it isn't just Millennials who are attracted to this kind of rental. Hersker says: "In reality, you have everyone – including college students, empty nesters, families with kids, pet owners, and those wanting to downsize." Urban vs. Suburban SFR Locations So where are all these built-to-rent homes located? RentCafe says that 61% of them are in suburban areas, and 39% are in urban areas. The website's analysis shows that most of the communities in the Southwest are in urban areas while those in the Midwest and Northeast are in suburban areas. RentCafe has come up with two lists. One is for new single-family rentals in the suburbs of larger metro areas. The other is for cities that have the room for build-to-rent communities within city limits. Phoenix tops the list for metros with a total of 6,420 new single-family rentals in communities that are dedicated to rentals. It's also a top metro for new apartment buildings, so there's a big demand in Phoenix for rentals of all types. RentCafe used data from its sister company, Yardi Matrix for this analysis. There are 20 metros on the list with Columbus, Dallas, and Houston in second, third and fourth positions. On the list of cities, Las Vegas is number one with 2,520 new single-family rentals. Houston, Tucson, and Phoenix are in second, third, and fourth place on that list. We'll have a link to the report in the show notes so you can check all the cities on both lists. RentCafe also identifies the largest built-to-rent communities. And, it has state maps showing which cities have the most single-family rentals. The report says there are currently about 90,000 single-family homes in the U.S. within about 720 communities. That includes all kinds of detached homes as well as townhomes and buildings with up to four units that also have yards and garages. Strong demand and higher home prices are also pushing rents higher, which is increasing investment value. CoreLogic says that single-family rents were up 11.5% year-over-year in November. And, landlords are having no trouble finding tenants. RentCafe says the occupancy rate was 97% for single-family rentals last year. That's 2% higher than it was for apartments. Check the show notes for links to the full report at newsforinvestors.com. You can also find out more about investing in newly constructed rental homes at our website. It's free to join, and free to access hundreds of webinars and articles on real estate investing. You'll also have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas for new and existing rental homes, and connect with our network of resources. That includes experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/market-snapshots/built-to-rent-single-family-hom
Ep 1144Are Credit Report Errors Almost Impossible to Fix?
The three top credit bureaus that have a strangle-hold on your credit score are getting a very poor performance report. A new analysis by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says that Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion are "routinely" failing to respond to consumer complaints about errors. Their performance is allegedly so bad that the CFPB says only "two percent" of complaints were addressed last year. (1) Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. As you know, a good credit score is extremely important for things like getting a credit card or buying a home. In the case of a home purchase, a higher credit score means you'll get a lower interest rate, and save tons of money over the life of the loan. Credit scores can also play an important role in other kinds of decisions, such as the hiring of a new employee, the approval of a rental applicant, or the issuing of a new insurance policy. Whatever the game plan, the higher the credit score, the better the outcome for the consumer. And that means you don't want any errors that will bring that score lower. The Right to Dispute Errors When those errors occur, consumers have the right to dispute that information, and to have it fixed. According to the CFPB, most of the complaints sent to the bureaus qualify for a mandatory response, but they apparently "changed" the process for responding to complaints in 2020. According to the CFPB's report, that has resulted in a faster process for closing complaints and a much lower rate of resolution, from 25% in 2019 to just 2% last year. The CFPB director Rohit Chopra told realtor.com: "America's credit reporting oligopoly has little incentive to treat consumers fairly when their credit reports have errors." He says the CFPB report is "further evidence of the serious harms stemming from their faulty financial surveillance business model." (2) The CFPB typically includes information on consumer complaints in its Consumer Response Annual Report. This report is a stand-alone analysis because of the huge number of complaints it received from consumers who aren't getting their credit reports fixed. The report says that between January of 2020 and September of 2021, the CFPB received more than 800,000 complaints. More than 700,000 of them were directed at Equifax, Experian, or TransUnion. Consumers are obviously frustrated about the situation. Among the issues, they say: 1 - They were caught in an automated response system that did not result in a solution to their problems. 2 - They were left without options when the source of the incorrect data argued against them… and… 3 - They wasted a lot of time, energy, and money trying to get errors fixed, but were unsuccessful. Consumers At a Disadvantage If you haven't dealt with this issue yet, the Washington Post published an article that paints a very clear picture. In one example, it says a creditor incorrectly reports that you were horribly late on a payment. As a result, your credit score drops substantially. The consumer then files a complaint with the credit bureaus and provides proof that the late payment never happened. (3) The credit bureaus contact the creditor who gave the wrong information. They are called 'data furnishers" by industry insiders. The creditor allegedly checks the data and sends the same bogus data back to the credit bureaus, which then tell the consumer that the creditor has "verified" that the information is correct. As the Post article says: "This back and forth goes on for months, or for the truly unfortunate, years." As if that's not bad enough, the Post article says that even for consumers who get the errors fixed, those same errors could suddenly find their way back to your credit report during computer updates that might pull old information from a large database. Obligated to Address Complaints Ed Mierzwinsky of the U.S. Public Interest Research Group says the credit bureaus "have never considered consumers as their customers. They've always considered consumers as a nuisance." They are obligated by law, however, to correct any errors, and they are supposed to do this within 30 days. In the CFPB report, it says: "The (credit bureau) responses to these complaints raise serious questions about whether they are unable–or unwilling–to comply with the law." This stand-alone report was submitted to Congress and could be used for debate on how to address the problems that consumers are having with the credit bureaus. As the report states: "More than 200 million Americans have credit files and nearly 15,000 providers furnish information about consumers to the (credit bureaus). Thus, the actions, and inactions, (by the credit bureaus) have large implications for consumers' financial well-being and the economy more broadly." You can read more the CFPB report by following the a link in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You're listening to the News For Investors po
Ep 1143The Real Estate News Brief: Moving Higher: Mortgage Rates, Home Prices, Single-Family Rents
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending January 22nd, 2022… higher mortgage rates, home prices, and single-family rents. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week. The weekly unemployment report shows a surge in the number of applications. They were up 55,000 to a three-month high of 286,000. As MarketWatch reports, it's a sign that the current wave of covid cases is impacting businesses and triggering some layoffs. Economists say that some layoffs may also be due to the end of the holiday season. (1) On the home-building front, December was a busy month for construction activity. The U.S. Census Bureau says home starts were up 1% compared to November, and 2.5% compared to the previous December. Permits were also up, by a lot. They were up 9% in December but much of the increase happened in the Northeast as builders rushed to get permits before new rules kicked in. Most of the permits were for multi-family projects. Single-family permits were only up 2%. (2) Builders are not very happy about ongoing challenges like inflation and supply-chain disruptions. Rising mortgage rates and home prices are also a concern, along with the labor shortage. The National Association of Home Builders says its builder confidence index dropped slightly. (3) Existing home sales were down last month. The National Association of Realtors says they dropped 4.6% between November and December. That's mostly due to inventory levels which NAR says were at their lowest level ever. The Association says while sales dropped nearly 5%, inventory was down 18%. (4) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates moved higher again last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 11 basis points to 3.56%. The 15-year rose 17 basis points to 2.79%. Mortgage rates are moving higher as Treasury yields rise and the Federal Reserve works on a plan to fight inflation. (5) On a positive note, lenders have loosened their purse strings and made funds more available for house hunters. The MBA'S Mortgage Credit Availability Index rose in December to its highest level since May of 2021. But, it's still down 30% from pre-pandemic levels. (6) In other news making headlines... Existing vs. New Home Price Growth Existing home prices rose more than new home prices in 2021. But CoreLogic research shows price growth for new homes rose more over the last decade. (7) The report offers an important perspective on home price growth by differentiating between two methods for calculating that growth. One method is from Case-Shiller which compares the latest sales price to the previous sales price. The other method is the tracking of the median price. It points out that the median price can show trends but can also be skewed by the sale of homes at different price levels. For example, if 90% of the homes in one area are entry level homes, but 10% are luxury homes at double the price, the median will be skewed higher for all the homes. CoreLogic says the Case-Shiller method is more accurate because it compares current sales data to previous sales data, but it also has one big flaw. It can't determine new home price growth which accounts for 10% of all sales, because there are no previous sales. It took a deeper dive into home price growth by combining the Case-Shiller Index for existing homes and a different metric for new homes which includes data for structural details of the homes and their locations. It concluded that appreciation has been about the same for both categories over the last year, although existing home price growth was slightly higher. It was up 19.8% compared to 16.6% for new homes. Over the last ten years, new home prices rose the most. They were up 127.9% compared to 93.2% for existing homes. Record Growth for Single-Family Rents CoreLogic also released the latest report on rent growth for single-family homes. It shows that rent growth was up 11.5% in November as demand soars. That's a new year-over-year record. It says that annual rent growth has doubled in some locations in just the last several months. In some areas, rents have tripled. (8) Miami has seen the highest rate of increase at 33%. Phoenix was second at 19.4%. Las Vegas was third, at 16.7%. A few of the rental markets that we track include Orlando with an increase of 15.9%, Dallas with an increase of 14.8%, and Atlanta with an increase 14.8%. Charlotte is also on the top 20 list with a year-over-year increase of 12.2%. You can see the entire list by following a link in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. That's it for today. Please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investm
Ep 1142Where Is the Eviction Tsunami?
Warnings about an "eviction tsunami" have yet to materialize. Extended moratoriums and rental assistance programs have delayed evictions in some areas, some housing experts had predicted 40 million evictions last fall. As reported by the news blog, fivethirtyeight.com, those experts are "still waiting." Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Some renter protections are still in place or just now expiring in some states and jurisdictions, so an eviction surge could be looming in those areas. But housing experts had expected a U.S. eviction tsunami in September, after the national eviction moratorium was lifted. Although there's been an increase in evictions, it hasn't resulted in a tsunami, so far. Evictions at Low Levels The fivethirtyeight article cites information from a website called "Eviction Lab" which tracks eviction data that's been made public. That data doesn't cover the entire nation, but it shows that, as of October of last year, evictions in most parts of the country were 40% lower than an historical average, and have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. So what's going on? It's difficult to know for sure, but there are various theories. Some housing experts think that some renters are still enjoying the benefits of the stimulus payments, extended unemployment insurance, and rental assistance programs, along with the moratoriums. There's also a theory that many "mom-and-pop landlords" have worked out deals with renters to avoid evictions. And there are some who feel that the eviction data just hasn't been very accurate. The fivethirtyeight authors believe it's probably a combination of those three, but there is no nationwide database to track that data. They say as many as one-third of U.S. counties don't publish an annual report on the number of evictions that make their way through courts. And then there are the so-called "informal evictions," which are not tracked at all. That happens when landlords refuse to make repairs or abruptly change the locks on rental units. The blog suggests that informal evictions could be five times more common than the formal ones. Predictions Were Likely Exaggerated Despite the lack of solid figures for the current status of U.S. evictions, the warning about a tsunami of 40 million evictions was very likely exaggerated, by a lot. That figure was largely based on something called the U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey which asks Americans how confident they are in paying their rent, on a weekly basis. And then week-after-week, between 25 and 33% didn't think they'd make rent. That survey was used by the Aspen Institute and the COVID-19 Eviction Defense Project to come up with projections about how many households were at risk. The figure was between 12.6 million and 17.3 million households or 30 to 40 million renters. That made for some big headlines and the passage of legislation for almost $50 billion dollars in rent assistance. The government hand-out probably protected a lot of renters. But as the fivethirtyeight blog points out, the legislation was probably "based on an overestimate" that was determined by renter confidence levels, and not facts. The Aspen researchers included responses from people with no confidence, a slight amount of confidence, and a moderate amount of confidence in being able to pay rent. Plus, they included not just the people who were already behind on the rent, but those who were up to date and just feeling worried. As the blog points out, while a third of the renters said they were not feeling very confident about paying rent, only 13.9 percent were both low on confidence AND behind on their rent. So how many renters were truly at risk? Fivethirtyeight calculated that number at 6 million households and 14 million renters. That's less than half of what Aspen had predicted, at the low end. The Aspen research grabbed the most headlines, but there were other estimates that came out a lot lower. The Urban Institute crunched the numbers from the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey but only included people who were already behind on their rent. That report determined that 10 million renters were at risk of eviction. The National Multifamily Housing Council estimates were also showing lower numbers, although that organization only covers multi-family. Single-Family Ecosphere But the single-family ecosphere also fared well. We were reporting on how well our affiliates were doing with rent collection during the pandemic. Our affiliate in Jacksonville, who renovates and manages a large number of single-family rentals, says he hasn't noticed a big surge in evictions. He attributes that to Florida's landlord and business-friendly environment. He says: "Since the outbreak of Covid, we have remained in one of the strongest rental markets I have experienced in 25 years as a professional landlord. Businesses, families, homeowners, and renters are
Ep 1141The Real Estate News Brief: Monetary Policy Tightens, Inflation Hits New High, Mortgage Rates Increase
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending January 14th, 2022... what the Fed is saying about tighter monetary policy, the latest rise in consumer prices, and where mortgage rates are right now. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week, and confirmation hearings for Fed Chief Jerome Powell. President Biden nominated him to continue in his role as the central bank's Chairman. Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that super low interest rates are no longer needed to prop up the economy, and that short-term rates should go higher to control inflation. The Fed has penciled in three rate hikes this year, but Powell says the central bank is prepared to do more, if necessary. It's a balancing act because hiking rates too much and too fast, could lead us into a recession, and job losses. But Powell believes that rates can go higher without hurting the job market. MarketWatch described his characterization of the process as a "soft landing" for the economy, and not a recession. Powell says that "if things develop as expected, we'll be normalizing policy, meaning we're going to end our asset purchases in March, meaning we'll be raising rates over the course of the year." (1) (2) As it stands, consumer prices rose again in December. The government says they were up .5% in December to a 40-year high of almost 7%. When you strip out food and energy, the inflation rate was up .6% in December to 5.5%. As reported by MarketWatch, that figure is a 31-year high. (3) Those high prices contributed to a drop in consumer spending, along with the spread of the Omicron variant and the supply chain disruptions that are leaving some store shelves bare. The government says that retail sales figures were down 1.9% in December. Internet retailers, like Amazon, experienced the biggest declines. Those figures were down almost 9%. Sales fell about 7% for department stores, 5.5% at furniture stores, and almost 3% at places that sell electronics, like Best Buy. (4) The unemployment report surprised economists with an increase in initial state claims. They were up 23,000 to a total of 230,000. Continuing claims dropped significantly however. Almost 200,000 people stopped collecting checks last week, leaving just 1.56 million people on the unemployment list. (5) Consumers are feeling more pessimistic about the economy because of inflation and Covid. The University of Michigan reports that its consumer sentiment index fell a few points in January, to 68.8. That's the second-lowest reading in a decade. The lowest was a few months ago when it dropped to 67.4 in November. (6) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates rose by almost a quarter point last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 23 basis points to 3.45%. The 15-year was up 19 points to 2.62%. Freddie Mac says the rate increase was "driven by the prospect of a faster than expected tightening of monetary policy" by the Federal Reserve in response to inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages. (7) In other news making headlines… Mortgage Delinquency Rates The mortgage delinquency rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels. CoreLogic's Loan Performance Report shows that 3.8% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days in October. That's only one-tenth of a percent higher than October of 2019. And the trend is expected to continue. (8) The report shows CoreLogic's chief economist, Frank Nothaft, says that loan modifications have helped lower the number of loans that are seriously delinquent. But he says they were still half a million higher in October than they were at the start of the pandemic in March. The drop in mortgage delinquencies has lowered the foreclosure inventory rate to its lowest level since 1999. CoreLogic says foreclosures are down in all 50 states, and expects them to drop further throughout the course of this year. Second-Home Demand Demand for vacation homes continues to rise. Redfin says it was 77% higher in December than it was before the pandemic due to new work flexibility and low mortgage rates. The second-home market is expected to remain strong, although higher interest rates could impact demand along with new second-home fees from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Those will take effect on April 1st. (9) That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-fed-can-cool-inflation-without-d
Ep 1140The Lumber Price Roller Coaster
Lumber prices are surging once more. You might remember when they hit a staggering level last spring. They aren't back up to that level yet, but this new surge is, again, adding thousands of dollars onto the price of a new home and making homes that much less affordable. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. The National Association of Home Builders reports that lumber prices have almost tripled over the last four months. That's adding more than $18,600 to the price of an average new single-family home, and about $7,300 to the market value of a multi-family home. The multi-family price hike translates into about $67 dollars a month more that tenants have to pay in rent for a new apartment. (1) Lumber Price Look-Back The lumber price roller coaster began at the start of the pandemic when sawmills shut down in step with the Covid lockdown. Back then, most people thought that the housing market would suffer as COVID spread, and that home construction would grind to a halt. But it was just the opposite. Housing demand began to soar and sawmills couldn't ramp back up fast enough. According to the NAHB: "The slow reaction by sawmills, combined with a massive uptick in demand from do-it-yourselfers and big box retailers during the pandemic resulted in lumber prices peaking at a record-shattering $1,500 per thousand board feet in May 2021, before beginning a gradual decline through late August." The NAHB says lumber prices have gone back up 167% since August, to more than $1,000 per thousand board feet. But it isn't just a matter of saw mill response. The NAHB lists several reasons including supply chain disruptions, a doubling of tariffs on Canadian lumber imports, and an unusually damaging wildfire season in the Western U.S. and Canada. NAHB Response The NAHB says it is working with the White House, Congress, and lumber producers to help resolve those issues, and bring prices back down to earth. NAHB actions include a letter to Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo last month about the doubling of Canadian lumber tariffs. It was signed by 84 members of Congress, and asked that the U.S. resume negotiations with Canada on a new trade agreement for lumber. It says the association leaders also met with Canadian officials at the embassy in Washington, D.C. to emphasize the need to restart negotiations. In early December, the NAHB sent a letter to President Biden in support of a new trade agreement. The NAHB would like to see immediate action in three areas. Those include: The removal of tariffs for lumber and other building materials such as steel and aluminum from China. The elimination of bottlenecks at seaports that are preventing the free flow of goods and materials. And, solutions to delays in transportation by trucks and trains. The NAHB says it's important to address the price issue for all construction materials, and not just lumber. It says the average price growth for home construction materials was about three times the rate of inflation in 2021. The situation isn't hurting builders. As the Wall Street Journal points out, they have no trouble raising prices to cover their costs. Layman's Lumber Guide analyst, Matt Layman, says: "They know they can pay $1,500 for two-by-fours. They didn't like it, but it didn't hurt them." (2) Without the kind of intervention that the NAHB is advocating, analysts expect to see prices climbing higher through the winter as builders ramp up for the spring season. Many are loading up on as much lumber as they can for fear that prices will climb even further. If you want to learn more about what the NAHB is doing, and how you can express your opinion on what needs to be done, look for a link in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth, for free. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources. That includes experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://nahbnow.com/2022/01/latest-wave-of-rising-lumber-prices-adds-more-than-18600-to-the-price-of-a-new-home/ 2 -https://www.wsj.com/articles/sky-high-lumber-prices-are-back-11639842879
Ep 1139The Real Estate News Brief: Buying vs. Renting, New Upfront FHFA Fees, WeWork Founder's New Focus
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending January 8th, 2022... we'll look at the cost of buying vs. renting, new FHFA fees for jumbo loans and second homes, and the WeWork/WeLive founder's new focus on apartments. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its December meeting with details about a more aggressive tapering plan and interest rate hikes. Fed officials plan to begin the tapering process after the first rate hike, which is generally expected to be in March. They are predicting the need for "three" quarter-percent rate hikes this year and another three next year. Possibly, two more after that. That would be a total of 2% if all eight rate hikes go into effect. (1) The number of people applying for state unemployment benefits rose last week, but it's still extremely low. The Labor Department says there were 207,000 initial claims. Continuing claims were also slightly higher. They rose 36,000 to 1.75 million which is still below pre-pandemic levels. (2) The U.S. unemployment rate is now "close" to pre-pandemic levels. It dropped to 3.9% in December from 4.2%. Before Covid struck the U.S., it was 3.5%. This is largely due to businesses offering incentives like signing bonuses, higher wages, and better benefits, to attract workers to a surplus of open positions. (3) The worker shortage has also given Americans more confidence in quitting jobs they don't like and finding better ones. This trend is showing up in the "quits rate" which represents the number of Americans quitting their jobs. The quits rate rose from 2.8% to 3% in November. That represents a 370,000 increase to a record 4.5 million. (4) Turning now to real estate, new numbers on construction spending show an increase. The Commerce Department says they are up .4% for November, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.63 trillion. When you break that down into sub-sectors, residential construction was up .4% while non-residential construction was flat and office construction was down 32.1%. (5) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates moved higher for the start of the new year. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose 11 basis points to 3.22%. The 15-year was up 10 points to 2.43%. Freddie Mac's chief economist, Sam Khater says these rates are the highest since May of 2020. He says: "With higher inflation, promising economic growth and a tight labor market, we expect rates will continue to rise." (6) In other news making headlines… Fees Rise for Larger Second-Home Loans The FHFA is raising up front fees for second-home loans, and those that exceed conforming loan limits. Those fees could add close to another 4% onto the cost of a loan for a second home, and as much as .75% to the cost of a jumbo loan, if they are bought by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. (7) The National Association of Home Builders has come out against the fee. It says that a second-home loan of about $300,000 with a loan-to-value of 65% will cost an additional $4,875 because of that fee. NAHB chairman, Chuck Fowke, says: "With the nation in the midst of a housing affordability crisis and many more workers electing to telework, this is exactly the wrong time for federal regulators to be raising fees on homeownership and second homes." The new fees take effect on April 1st. Buying vs. Renting Is it cheaper to rent or to buy? According to ATTOM Data Solutions, homeownership is still the better choice in most of the country. A new study shows that it's more affordable in 58% of the counties that were tracked by researchers. (8) The study compared median-priced homes to the average rent for a three-bedroom rental property in more than 1,000 counties. Researchers also looked at wages which have been rising slower than home prices but faster than rents. But that dynamic is changing. ATTOM's chief product officer, Todd Teta says: "The trend is slowly shifting toward renters, which could be a major force in easing price increases in 2022. Prices can only go up by so much more before renting becomes financially easier." WeWork Founder Buying Up Apartments The man who wanted to transform the work world when he co-founded "WeWork, is now working on a plan to "shake up the rental housing industry." According to the Wall Street Journal and realtor.com, Adam Neumann has purchased more than 4,000 apartments in desirable real estate markets across the country. (9) He told the Journal: "Since the spring of 2020, we have been excited about multifamily apartment living in vibrant cities where a new generation of young people increasingly are choosing to live, the kind of cities that are redefining the future of living." Neuman left WeWork in 2019, after raising more than $10 billion for the company. He also launched a shared-living network of buildings with rentable rooms called WeLive
Ep 1138The Real Estate News Brief: Single-Family Investor Hot Spots, Insurance Price Hikes, Top Searches on Zillow
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending January 1st, 2022... investor hot spots for single-family homes, insurance premium price hikes, and Zillow's list of most popular search areas. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from the last week of 2021. The year closed with fewer people asking for unemployment benefits. Initial jobless claims were down to 198,000, which is close to a 50-year low. Continuing claims also dropped. Government figures show they were down by about 140,000 to 1.72 million people. The numbers reflect a labor shortage and companies that are not eager to lay anyone off because it might be difficult to replace them. According to MarketWatch, economists are predicting the labor shortage will continue in 2022, but will not be so pronounced. (1) Pending home sales for November were down for a third month in a row. The National Association of Realtors says they were down 2.2% from October. That's more than the .8% drop in pending home sales that MarketWatch had forecast. On a year-over-year basis, they were down 2.7%. NAR'S chief economist, Lawrence Yun, blames the dip on a tight supply of homes which continues to push home prices higher. He also expects to see higher inventory levels in 2022 which will help slow the price growth. (2) The latest report from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city price index shows an 18.4% year-over-year gain in home prices for October. The national index shows a 19.1% annual gain. Both are slightly "lower" than they were in September. But some cities are showing extremely strong price growth, such as Phoenix. Year-over-year home price growth there is 32.3%. Tampa and Miami are also very high due to the strong housing market in Florida. (3) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates moved slightly higher, but the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is still hovering slightly above the 3% level. Freddie Mac says it rose 6 basis points last week to 3.11%. The 15-year was up 3 points to 2.33%. (4) Freddie Mac's chief economist, Sam Khater, says: "Mortgage rates have been effectively moving sideways despite the increase in new Covid cases." (5) In other news making headlines… Investors Want Single-Family Homes The buying spree continues among investors who are snapping up single-family homes, and it's not just the more affordable areas they are interested in. According to CoreLogic, California is experiencing a rebound in single-family homes that are purchased by investors. (6) CoreLogic economist, Thomas Malone, says: "After a decade of moving away, investors are coming back to California." He says: "The California rise is likely due to large investors, who seem less deterred by the high prices found in the area." Those California metros include the Silicon Valley region and San Francisco in the North, and the Los Angeles area and the counties of Riverside and San Bernardino in the South. Other metros attracting investors are Atlanta, Phoenix, and the McAllen-Edinburg-Mission region of Texas down near the Southern tip of the state. Las Vegas, El Paso, Memphis and Salt Lake City are also attracting a large share of investors. Insurance Premiums Are Climbing The cost of homebuilding materials and climate change risks are turning into higher insurance premiums, and that's giving some property owners sticker shock. The Insurance Information Institute says that premiums are up about 4%, with an average annual premium of $1,400. Realtor.com reports a warning from insurance companies, that premiums will be going even higher. (7) Realtor.com says the cost of rebuilding a home is going up because of higher prices for building materials in general. But, it says, homeowners with the biggest increases are those in disaster-prone areas. Chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, Robert Dietz, says that building material prices are pushed higher after a natural disaster for six to nine months, while people are, of course, scrambling to rebuild their homes. Most Searched for Real Estate in 2021 The rise of remote work has put a popular vacation area in the spotlight. According to page views on Zillow, South Lake Tahoe was the most popular city last year. Zillow says it catapulted into the number one position because of a high number of page views for each listing – about 5,500! (8) Calabasas in the Los Angeles area ranked as the most popular small town. But it isn't your typical small town. Calabasas is known for having many celebrity residents with homes that are valued at an average of $1.5 million. California's Big Bear Lake also attracted a lot of page views, which Zillow ranked as the most popular vacation town. Other hot spots include Newport, Oregon as the most popular beach town; Tempe, Arizona as the most popular college town; and Lavallette, New Jersey, as the most popular retirement community. That's it for today. Chec
Ep 1137A Record-Breaking Year for Housing!
2021 was a record-breaking year for housing and real estate. Redfin compiled a list of 10 housing records that we experienced last year. And some of these themes are expected to continue into 2022. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. It's been an unusual year to say the least. It was the second year of the pandemic and one where many Americans have changed where and how they live because of the COVID-19 and a surge in remote work. That has also changed the kind of homes they buy and rent. Redfin Chief Economist, Daryl Fairweather, says: "The ongoing pandemic, including its seismic effect on the U.S. economy and the way Americans live and work, has made 2021's housing market anything but typical." He says: "Remote work, low mortgage rates, a shortage of building materials and wealth inequality that has allowed an influx of affluent Americans to buy vacation homes, to name just a few factors, have come together to create a historic year for real estate. Buyers paid more for homes, bought sooner than they planned, searched outside their hometowns or all of the above." (1) Redfin's List of 2021 Housing Records Let's take a look at Redfin's list: 1 - The national median home price hit an all-time high of $386,000 in June. That's a 24.4% year-over-year increase. Home prices have been going up all year, thanks to a lack of inventory and strong demand. Low mortgage rates have also helped fuel that price growth. Redfin says that home prices are higher than pre-pandemic levels in almost all parts of the nation. 2 - Inventory levels hit a record low in June when there were just 1.38 million homes for sale. That was 23% lower year-over-year. The problem has gotten worse because of high demand, homeowners deciding to refinance at low rates instead of selling, and new construction that isn't keeping up with the need for homes. 3 - Homes are selling more quickly than ever before. Redfin says the typical home spent just 15 days on the market in June and July. In June of 2020, the median number of days on the market was 39. Buyers have been snatching up homes as fast as they can. Many do so without seeing the homes in person. 4 - Sellers were also taking advantage of the situation. More than 60% of them accepted offers within two weeks, which is an all-time high. 5 - More than 56% of the sold homes went for more than the listing price. That's almost 30 percentage points higher than 2020, and a new record. Redfin says the average home sold for 2.6% over the list price. Almost three quarters of all Redfin agents say their buyers faced competition. 6 - The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage went as low as 2.65% in January. That's the lowest ever, and is one reason for the home-buying and refinancing frenzy that we've been seeing. 7 - Investors have been busy buying almost one out of every five homes on the market. That's 18.2% of the purchased homes and 11.2% more than the year before. Total dollars spent by investors was a record $63.6 billion in the third quarter compared to $35.7 billion during Q3 2020. 8 - Demand has almost doubled for second homes. It was up 91% in January, mostly due to a surge in remote work. Instead of working at home, employees have been enjoying their work hours at beach homes and mountain cabins. 9 - Almost a third of Americans wanted to move to a new city this last year, thanks to remote work and the ability to work from wherever. Many workers left expensive cities in search of more affordable areas. 10 - Luxury home prices hit new records. The median sale price for a top tier home was 25.8% higher year-over-year, or a little over a million dollars. Mid-priced home were up 16% and affordable homes were up 13.2%. This data is food for thought as we head into the new year, and start mapping out our investing strategy. Mortgage rates are expected to move higher which will slow down price growth a bit. But home buyer demand is expected to remain high along with supply chain issues that are interfering with home construction. And for those who can't buy a home, they will very likely be looking for a single-family rental so they can live like a homeowner. One economist, Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst for Housing Wire, actually believes rates could decrease in 2022. To find out why, I've invited him to be my guest on my 2022 Housing Forecast this Thursday. You can sign up for that at newsforinvestors.com. It's free to join and then you'll get access. I interviewed Logan on my other podcast last Spring, and based on the great reviews, I'd say you won't want to miss this webinar. He's been eerily accurate with his predictions, which have often been the exact opposite of what you see in headline news. Again, you can sign up for the free webinar at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth, for free. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with o
Ep 1136The Real Estate News Brief: Year-End Optimism, Surge in Home Sales, SFR Investor Pay Raise
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending December 25th, 2021... why consumers are feeling optimistic about the economy, the latest surge in home sales, and which investors are getting a nice pay raise. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week and a busy Christmas holiday. There's now just one week left to the year, and economists say the economy is showing signs of strength despite the current COVID-19 surge. Last week, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits held steady at just over 200,000 applications. That's below pre-pandemic levels, which were averaging about 220,000 per week. The number of people already collecting checks shrank a bit, to 1.86 million, which is slightly higher than the pre-pandemic level of 1.7 million. Although the holidays could be skewing those numbers somewhat, Rubella Farooqi of High Frequency Economics feels they are heading in a good direction. She said in a MarketWatch report: "The data can be noisy during the holidays, but filings continue to trend down on strong demand for workers amid a labor shortage. The risk now is from new virus variants which are forcing businesses to voluntarily close in response to rising infections." (1) November ended with an inflation rate of 5.7%, as the nation deals with the Covid-19 Omicron variant. That's up from 5% in October and the highest level we've seen since last summer when the Delta variant was surging. (2) But inflation doesn't appear to be impacting consumer confidence this time around. Consumer spending rose .6% in November (3) and the Conference Board's index was up several points for December. Conference Board President, Steve Odland, says consumers may feel less concern at this point, because it appears the Omicron variant is not as dangerous as Delta. He said on CNBC's Power Lunch last week: "Part of that may be simple Covid fatigue… but also Omicron is less lethal than prior versions and I think that's giving people more confidence all the way around." (4) Real estate continues to be one of the strongest parts of the economy. New home sales hit a seven-month high in November. They were up 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 744,000. That's up from 662,000 in October, although that was heavily revised from about the same number we're currently getting for November. So the November number could change. But economists say the housing sector is strong with a median sales price of $417,000. That's a new record high. They are also expecting price growth to slow when the Fed starts raising interest rates next year, to control inflation. (5) Existing home sales were also strong in November. The National Association of Realtors says they were up 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.46 million. That's a 10-month high, and the third month in a row that they've increased, despite the inventory issue. NAR says inventory levels were down 13% compared to November of last year, but surveys done by Redfin.com show a rise in the number of homeowners planning to sell in the early part of next year. (6) Mortgage Rates And homebuyers can still get a screamingly good mortgage rate. Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down 7 basis points last week to 3.05%. The 15-year was down 4 basis points to 2.3%. (7) In other news making headlines… Single-Family Rental Rates Rent growth for single-family homes is turning into a generous pay raise for investors. The latest report from CoreLogic shows that rent levels were up 10.9% year-over-year in October and that vacancy rates are at 25-year lows. (8) CoreLogic economist, Molly Boesel, says it's the sixth month in a row that rent growth has hit a new high for single-family homes. She says it's rising in lock-step with higher home prices, and that: "Rent growth this October was more than three times that of a year earlier." And last year was a good year because of the Covid migration to the suburbs and single-family homes. The metros showing the highest growth rates are Miami with a 29.7% year-over-year increase, Phoenix with a 19.3% increase, and Las Vegas with a 16.5% increase. The best rent growth has also been for higher-priced rentals. 2022 Homebuyer Strategies High home prices have left many wannabee homebuyers in the rental market, but realtor.com says they are optimistic about their ability to buy a home in the coming year. The survey shows that more than a quarter of those shoppers were unable to buy a home and that many are planning new strategies for 2022. (9) Among those strategies are plans to make all-cash offers or larger down payments if possible, making offers above the asking price, and writing home seller love letters which are currently frowned upon and illegal in the state of Oregon. 22% of those surveyed say they plan on going over their budget for a home, and 13% plan to make
Ep 1135Is Solar Power Getting More Expensive in California?
Solar advocates are sounding the alarm on proposed changes to California's rooftop solar program. The changes would reduce the savings that solar customers enjoy, and potentially add a new monthly fee to connect to the grid. Regulators say reforms are necessary because non-solar customers are paying too much to maintain the grid, but solar supporters say the changes will discourage people from installing solar and make it difficult to meet California's green energy goals. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. The California Public Utilities Commission released the proposal on Monday, December 13th. (1) There's a long list of changes that include a reduction in the discount consumers would get for installing a solar system. That would increase the amount of time it takes to recoup the cost of the system. The break even window would expand to about double what it is now or about ten years. New Fees, Reduced Sell-Back Amounts The proposal also includes a monthly Grid Participation Charge of $8 per kilowatt of installed solar. If you have an 8 kW system, for example, you'd be paying an extra $64 a month to hook up to the grid. The fee would be imposed on solar customers so they could pay their "fair share of the cost of maintaining the grid." New solar customers would also get paid a lower amount for any excess electricity they produce and sell back to the utilities. That wouldn't impact existing customers right away. They'd be able to continue with their existing rate structure for the first 15 years of their system. After that, they would transition from net metering to net billing which pays less for any excess energy produced. Net billing has been highly criticized as a disincentive for solar adoption because many consumers have relied on the money they get from producing excess electricity to help pay for their systems. Solar costs have come down but for many people, solar is still too expensive. Incentives for Residential Storage Batteries Regulators are hoping the new rules will encourage the installation of residential storage batteries so that solar customers can keep the excess energy they produce, and use it during peak hours in the evening. Peak hours are between 6 and 9pm. If solar homes are getting a wholesale price for the excess energy they produce during the day, and are charged full price for energy they need during the evening, they end up paying the difference. If they install a storage battery, there's no extra cost. Regulators say much of this proposal is to address the strain on the grid during those peak hours, after the sun goes down. Long List of Changes There are several other items that the CPUC is proposing that include an Equity Fund to help provide community solar in low-income and disadvantaged communities, new rules that would allow oversized residential solar systems to accommodate future needs for vehicle and appliance charging and electrification, and a change in the way that solar customers are billed from yearly to monthly, possibly because of that proposed monthly grid participation fee. The state's three main utilities support the proposed changes. Pacific Gas & Electric, San Diego Gas & Electric, and Southern California Edison, along with the CPUC, say the savings that solar customers are currently getting are so big that they are not paying their fair share of the grid's operating costs. The solar industry and advocates say the changes will make it difficult for California to reach a goal for zero-carbon emissions by 2045. Will This Hamper Clean Energy Goals? Susannah Churchill for Vote Solar told the Associated Press that the proposal will "move us backward on clean energy and block many Californians' ability to help make our grid more resilient to climate change." (2) The rooftop solar program was launched in 1995 to encourage more people to "go solar." According to the solar industry, 1.3 million California homes now have solar. That's more than any other state in the U.S. Plus, a California law enacted last year, requires that all new homes have solar. The CPUC changes would be phased in over four years for new customers, but if they take advantage of a $3,200 discount on a residential storage system, they'd transition into the new rate structure right away, which pays less for the excess energy that's produced. But they'd get that big discount on an energy storage system. CPUC Commissioner Guzman Aceves says this proposal is all about distributing the cost of maintaining the grid in a way that doesn't unfairly impact non-solar customers, and transitioning to a solar system that uses the sun to produce electricity during the day, to one that can also produce electricity after the sun goes down. That can be done if more people install storage batteries. The CPUC is taking public comment on this proposal and could vote on it by the end next month. If it's approved, the new poli
Ep 1134The Real Estate News Brief: New Conforming Loan Limits, Surge in Tappable Equity, Building Inspections with Drones
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending December 11th, 2021... new FHFA conforming loans limits, tappable equity at a record high, and where drones may be used to inspect buildings. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week, including a report that shows inflation has hit a 39-year-high. The government reported a .8% increase in consumer prices last month. That puts the yearly rate at 6.8% which is more than 3 times the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Higher prices for gas, motor vehicles, housing, and food account for most of the increase. The Fed expects inflation to fall below the 3% level by the end of next year. Some economists expect it to take longer. (1) The latest unemployment report shows that initial claims dropped to just 184,000. That's the lowest level since 1969. The government adjusts the numbers for seasonal employment so they may be skewed somewhat, but as MarketWatch reports, they are extremely low and economists expect them to go even lower as the economy continues to strengthen. There's also a worker shortage so many employers are hesitant to let people go. (2) Even if they aren't firing workers, there's been a surge in the number of people leaving or switching jobs. As MarketWatch reports, almost 39 million people have quit their jobs this year. That includes a record 4.4 million in September. Economists expect the year to end with a record-high quits rate. Some are calling this trend "The Great Resignation." (3) Consumer sentiment turned positive in December, although many Americans are still worried about inflation. The University of Michigan index rose to 70.4. That's up three points from the November reading, but down about 10 points from a year ago. (4) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates are still close to the 3% level. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down one basis point to 3.1% last week. The 15-year was also down one point, to 2.38%. (5) In other news making headlines… Conforming Loan Limits Move Higher The Federal Housing Finance Agency released final figures on conforming loan limits for 2022. For most of the nation, the maximum amount will be $647,200. The maximum moves above the baseline amount for more expensive areas like the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, New York City, and others. The highest amount rises to almost a million dollars in those pricier locations, to $970,800. That's 150% above the baseline amount. (6) New Record High for Housing Prices Home prices are a moving target and continue to move higher although price growth has slowed down a bit. Redfin says the median home sale price rose to a new high during the four-week period that ended on December 5th. It says the median price is now $360,250. That's 14% higher than it was a year earlier, and 30% higher from December of 2019. (7) The average sale-to-list price ratio was 100.5%. That means the average home sold at .5% over it's listing price. That's only the average. In 43% of the transactions, homes sold for more than the listing price. In 31% of the sales, sellers accepted an offer within one week of the homes hitting the market. Tappable Equity Surges Skyrocketing prices are giving property owners a lot of equity. Black Knight says total U.S. home equity was up $250 billion in the third quarter to a total of $9.4 trillion. That's 32% higher than the same time last year. AND it's almost 90% higher than it was right before the housing market collapsed into the Great Recession. (8) Black Knight's data and analytics president Ben Graboske says: "That works out to nearly $178,000 available in tappable equity to the average homeowner with a mortgage before hitting a maximum combined loan-to-value ratio of 80%." Average mortgage debt is now down to 45.2% thanks to higher prices. That's giving consumers and investors more tappable equity that can be used for other purposes such as home improvements or the purchase of investment properties. Building Inspections with Drones? Drones could be the next great tool for New York building inspectors. They usually perform their inspections using binoculars and cameras from the street, and sometimes from the roofs of other buildings. Construction Dive reports that the city may soon authorize the use of drones for those inspections. (9) Officials say they could "yield more detailed results and greater safety, as well as greater efficiency and documentation." That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs a
Ep 1133Federal Crackdown on All-Cash Real Estate Deals?
Real estate investors who pay cash could face more scrutiny from the federal government. The Treasury Department is proposing new regulations on shell companies, like LLC's, as a way to crack down on money laundering through real estate deals. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Government's Plan to Stop Money Laundering Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, Wally Adeyemo, discussed the government's plan to fight corruption at the Brookings Institution. He addressed the issue by saying: "Corruption thrives in the financial shadows--in shell corporations that disguise owners' true identities, in offshore jurisdictions with lax anti-money laundering regulations, and in complex structures that allow the wealthy to hide their income from government authorities." (1) Adeyemo is proposing that countries around the world join this effort to separate the bad actors from the good ones, because many shell companies are perfectly legitimate. It's a recognized strategy to put your residential rental properties, and other kinds of properties, inside something like an LLC as a way to limit any legal liabilities or potential lawsuits to just one property, and not your whole portfolio. But it's also possible to set up a shell company, and to use that company to purchase expensive properties with dirty money. That's what the Treasury Department is targeting. Three-Pronged Approach Adeyemo wants to tackle this problem in three different ways: 1 - He wants to improve transparency by forcing certain types of U.S. and foreign companies that are registered in the U.S. to disclose their beneficial owners, which are the people who actually run the companies. He's implementing this effort under the Corporate Transparency Act which allows the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network to build a central registry for this information. One particular area of concern is the real estate market and all-cash deals that don't require the disclosure of the buyers who may be hiding behind a shell company. Adeyemo is soliciting public comment on the best way to address this problem. 2 - He also wants to use the new information to improve the investigation and prosecution of any illegal activity, including money laundering, bribery, embezzlement, and extortion, and tax evasion. He says: "Today, the top 1 percent of earners in the United States underpay their taxes by more than $160 billion each year, depriving every other American of the money we need to invest in things that benefit the whole country, like roads, childcare, and education." Enforcement might include sanctions, as well as criminal law enforcement. 3 - The third leg of his strategy is "partnership." He wants to expand the effort to allies and partners around the world as well as the private sector, and civil society groups. He says the U.S. can't address corruption without an international effort. As an example, he says "more than 40% of global payments are conducted in euros or pounds." Impact on Real Estate Investors So what does all this mean for investors who buy and sell residential rental properties inside an LLC? It could mean that the title companies will be required to file reports that identify the beneficial owners of those properties. This is already the law in 12 U.S. cities for transactions over $300,000. That includes Boston; Chicago; Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas; Honolulu; Las Vegas; Los Angeles; Miami; New York City; San Antonio; San Diego; San Francisco; and Seattle. According to realtor.com, the new regulations would expand the disclosure requirement from coast-to-coast. They may also include the purchase of commercial property as well as residential. (2) Some people say the new rules are long overdue. Attorney and anti-money laundering expert, Ross Delston, told Bloomberg: "I'm not sure where the U.S. Treasury has been for the last decade or two, but give them credit for attempting to address a gap that has festered for years and has resulted in the U.S.A. being the money laundering haven of choice for the world's corrupt politicians." (3) If you'd like to read more about this topic, you'll find links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth, for free. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources. That includes experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0516 2 -https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2021/12/07/white-house-seeks-increased-oversight-on-all-cash-deals 3 -https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-06/biden-eyes-shell-company-real-estate-purchases-for-tighter-rules
Ep 1132The Real Estate News Brief: $2 Trillion Milestone, Suburban Appeal, Retail Rebirth
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending December 4th, 2021... the $2 trillion real estate milestone, the homebuyer's search for suburban homes, and the brick-and-mortar store comeback. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week. Pending home sales surged higher in October. The National Association of Realtors says they were up 7.5%. That's substantially higher than the .7% predicted by MarketWatch economists. Contract signings were higher in all four U.S. regions, but the Midwest had the biggest gain of 11.8%. (1) Home price growth has cooled off a bit. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city price index shows a 19.1% year-over-year gain in September. That's a half a percent lower than it was in August, which is not much of a decline. Craig Lazzara of the S&P DJI says that housing prices continue to show remarkable strength. He describes the change of pace as "deceleration." (2) The weekly unemployment report shows that initial claims jumped back above the 200,000 mark. Just two weeks ago, the number of applications hit a 52-year low of 194,000. It could be that some people decided to wait until after Thanksgiving to file for their benefits. (3) The U.S. jobless rate has fallen again, from 4.6% to 4.2%. MarketWatch reports that almost 600,000 people rejoined the workforce in November, and the participation rate of 61.8% is now the highest it's been since the beginning of the pandemic. (4) If we look at job growth for the construction industry, builders added 31,000 positions last month. Specialty contractors created the most with 13,000 new positions. Civil and heavy engineering accounted for the rest. First American economist Odeta Kushi says: "It was a strong month for construction." (5) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates didn't move much this last week. Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up just 1 basis point, to 3.11%. The 15-year was down 3 basis points, to 2.39%. (6) In other news making headlines… $2 Trillion in Real Estate Deals for 2021? Real estate transactions could hit a huge milestone this year. CoreLogic says they topped $600 billion in the second quarter. That's after $750 billion in transactions for the first quarter. Researchers say if the trend continues, we'll hit the $2 trillion mark by the end of the year. (7) CoreLogic economist, Thomas Malone, says it's a combination of high home prices and the migration to bigger homes in more expensive areas. He says: "The value of transactions has skyrocketed despite sales volumes continuing a relatively normal growth trend." The report also shows that if you look at the last four quarters from the second half of 2020 to the first half of 2021, real estate transactions have already hit the $2 trillion mark. CoreLogic says the total value for that time period was $2.25 trillion. Suburbs Are Not Losing Their Appeal The desire for a home in the suburbs is still going strong, even as many people return to the cities. Realtor.com says that 62% of the online home views in September were for suburban homes while the other 38% were for urban areas. (8) Realtor.com's chief economist, Danielle Hale, says the pre-pandemic suburban vs. city dynamic is changing because of remote work options and high rents in the city. She says: "The price premium is shrinking between notoriously expensive urban housing and suburban for-sale homes, typically known for more bargains." Inventory levels also reveal the difference. They were down 13% annually in September for suburban areas and only 8% for cities. More Stores Opening Than Closing E-commerce may have disrupted the retail environment and put a lot of brick-and-mortar stores out of business. But now, the opposite appears to be happening. According to a new analysis by the IHL Group, there are more store openings than closures for the first time in four years. And many of those new openings are due to e-commerce websites wanting a brick-and-mortar presence. (9) As reported by the Wall Street Journal, Levi Strauss is one example. The clothing company plans to open 100 U.S. stores over the next five years. Dick's Sporting Goods is another example, with plans to open more than 800 stores under several brand names. And of course, there's e-commerce giant Amazon which is planning to open its own department stores. For 2021, IHL expects that 4,361 more stores will have opened than were shut down. That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listeni
Ep 1131Today's Factory-Built Homes and Why You Should Check Them Out!
Demand for manufactured housing is growing as a way to close the affordability gap. Factory-built homes were once viewed as a low-quality alternative to site-built homes, but that's no longer the case. Factory-built homes are now built to similar standards but they cost less because it's less expensive to build any kind of product in a factory. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Manufacturing housing is enjoying a rebirth of sorts. Factory-built homes were known as "mobile homes" in the 1970s, and there are plenty of them still in existence today. But the newly designed and produced manufactured homes are quite different, according to industry experts. Site-Built vs. Factory-Built Jim Ayotte is the executive director of the Florida Manufactured Housing Association based in Tallahassee. He recently spoke with the Tampa Times about today's manufactured homes and how they compare to site-built homes. (1) He told the Times that many people have an outdated perception of manufactured homes. He says people will say things like: "Oh, mobile homes, those old things? We don't want those in our neighborhoods. They're not really safe." But he says the new factory-built homes are built to the similar standards as site-built homes when it comes to "energy efficiency, wind safety and everything else." Those building codes were upgraded after Hurricane Andrew in 1992, for both kinds of homes. He says: "Today, manufactured homes are built to wind standards that are as high or higher than homes built to the Florida building codes." Today's manufactured homes also come in "all shapes and sizes." Depending on the size, some may have porches and/or garages. He says the higher-end manufactured homes are pretty much indistinguishable from a home that was built on location. Manufactured Homes in the Tampa Area Ayotte suggests that anyone interested in affordable homes should check out what you can buy today. And, he says there's plenty of places to find them in the Tampa Bay area. He says that from 2020 to 2021, manufactured home shipments have increased by 18% in Hillsborough County, which is home to the city of Tampa. To the north, in Pasco County, shipments are up 10% and farther north in Citrus County, they are up 26%. To the east, in Pinellas County and the St. Petersburg area, they are up 9%. And the manufactured housing trend is growing. He says there are nine home-building plants in Florida that have increased production by 30% over the last two years. And, he says, every one of them is backlogged. Like all home builders, they are running into supply chain issues right now, but Ayotte says that manufactured home builders buy their materials more efficiently and more cost-effectively. He says that prices are coming back down, but they never come down quite as fast as they go up. He says, currently, the average price for a manufactured home in Florida is about $101 to $102,000. That's up from about $84,500 in 2019. Those prices are without the cost of the land, but they still represent a big savings. When you do a cost comparison between site-built and factory-built homes, Ayotte says there's typically a 20% price difference. But he also emphasizes that the price difference isn't due to a difference in quality. He says it's because factory-built homes are built more efficiently. Improved Loan Access for Manufactured Housing The Federal Housing Authority is also trying to make it easier for homebuyers to get loans for manufactured homes. The agency recently issued new guidelines for its Title I loan program which provides loans for home improvements along with loans for manufactured homes. HousingWire reports that the FHA consolidated 120 separate policy documents so lenders won't have to sort through them all. It also updated some policies associated with the purchase of manufactured homes. One of the updates will permit a sales comparison approach to appraisals, for example. Another will expand allowable income sources for borrowers. (2) Manufactured homes could also make good rental homes, at a lower price point. In California, where state laws allow for Accessory Dwelling Units on single-family properties, homeowners can buy pre-made cottages to put in their backyards. And then of course, rent them out. The potential is there for not just affordable housing, but affordable rental housing. If you'd like to read more about this topic, you'll find links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth, for free. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources. That includes experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://www.tam
Ep 1130"Adaptive Reuse" and Why It's an Investment Opportunity
A lot of the nation's empty commercial space is being put to good use. A recent report by RentCafe shows a huge surge in the conversion of vacant commercial buildings into apartment complexes. This so-called "adaptive reuse" trend began more than a decade ago, but accelerated substantially this past year, especially for the conversion of unused office space. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. A recent report by RentCafe says that, by the end of this year, developers will have created 20,100 residential units within old commercial buildings. Add that number to the 12,000 units created last year, and the decade kicks off with a total of 32,000 apartments created by converting commercial buildings into apartment homes. Decade-Long Trend According to RentCafe, it's a trend that began in 2010 with 5,200 conversions. Back then, hotels were the most popular kind of building to convert into apartments. Old factories and office buildings were also popular, but not as much as hotels. There was a steady increase of conversions each year through 2017, which logged about 15,500 conversions. The numbers fell in 2018 through 2020, and blasted off again this year, especially for the conversion of old office buildings. RentCafe says that 41% of the units created during that last two years were formerly used for office space. It's been a good opportunity for developers and investors, because adaptive reuse is less costly than ground-up construction, especially with supply chain issues that are holding up new projects. It's also a more earth-friendly option. Lower Environmental Impact North Carolina city planner, Emil Malizia, told RentCafe: "Perhaps the most compelling reason to choose adaptive reuse for apartments versus new apartment construction is the lower environmental impact, especially if demolition is involved." He says: "Adaptive reuse mitigates climate change; demolitions and new construction do not." Cost Savings The cost savings are also impressive. Malizia says that adaptive reuse can lower construction costs by as much as 30-40%, so long as the cost of the site and the building is not a lot more than a piece of undeveloped land. And right now, it might even be easier to secure an old building than a plot of land, especially if the current remote work trend continues. Companies are changing the way they do business, thanks to the pandemic, and reducing the number of private offices they maintain. Unused Office Space As CNBC reports, office vacancy rates remain high in many U.S. cities, so building owners have been scrambling to put them to use. And we're likely to see even more office space becoming available. A PwC survey says that about a third of the executives are expecting their office space needs to decrease over the next three years, because of remote workers. (2) Although many renters fled from their city apartments during the pandemic, city life is bringing them back. And these commercial space conversions are providing a convenient option for returnees who want to live downtown, in or near the business district. Because there is typically less housing in areas with a lot of office buildings, these conversions also offer a prime "location." And when you have that, the opportunity for developers and investors can be lucrative. Top Cities for Conversions While this trend is surging in the U.S., it's also happening more in some cities than others. For 2020 and 2021, the city with the most conversions was Philadelphia. Developers created almost 2,000 new apartments through adaptive reuse. Washington, D.C.; Cleveland; Chicago; and Los Angeles were next on that list. They all had more than 1,000 conversions over that last two years. Other cities with a lot of conversions were Alexandria, Virginia; Detroit, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and New York City. You can see the RentCafe report by following a link in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth, for free. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources. That includes experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/market-snapshots/adaptive-reuse-apartments-2021/ 2 -https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/24/a-record-number-of-office-buildings-turned-into-apartments-this-year.html
Ep 1129The Real Estate News Brief: Atypical Winter for Home Sales, Investor Buying Spree, Love Letter Lawsuit
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending November 27th, 2021... the winter forecast for home sales, what investors are doing with their money, and who's suing lawmakers over real real estate "love letters." Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week, and a Fed that's growing more concerned about inflation. Central bank officials still believe that prices will rise more slowly next year, but they are acknowledging that inflation pressures could last longer than they anticipated because of labor and supply chain shortages. These issues have pushed the yearly inflation rate to a 32-year-high of 6.2%. If you recall, inflation was close to "zero" about a year ago. The situation could prompt the Fed to begin the tapering of its bond-buying program "before" the end of this year. It has been buying $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities as an economic stimulus. (1) High prices are not preventing consumers from spending money. They have extra cash to spend from pandemic savings along with higher wages and bigger paychecks. That pushed consumer spending up 1.3% in October. According to MarketWatch, about half of the increase is due to inflation, so spending is up about .7%. (2) The latest unemployment report shows the number of people applying for state benefits is now "below" pre-pandemic levels. The Labor Department says initial applications dropped to 199,000 the week before Thanksgiving. That's the lowest level since November of 1969. The number of continuing claims also dropped to a pandemic low of about 2.05 million. (3) New home sales continue to rise. They were up .4% in October, according to the Commerce Department. The median price of a home is now $407,700. That's a new record high. The report also shows that builders are pumping new homes into the market. The supply was up 3.3% to a 6.3-month supply. (4) The sale of existing homes also rose in October, because of high demand, but buyers are still dealing with a lack of supply and higher prices. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales were up .8% between September and October, to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.34 million. That's also 5.8% lower than the year-ago numbers. (5) Despite the low unemployment figures and the amount of consumer spending, consumer sentiment has now dipped to a 10-year low. The University of MIchigan index dropped from 71.7 in October to 67.4 in November. Consumers are mostly concerned about inflation, and a lower standard of living because of those higher prices. (6) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates held steady last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 3.1%. The 15-year is up 3 basis points to 2.52%. (7) In other news making headlines… Cold Winter, Hot Housing Market The typical winter slowdown for home sales is probably not going to happen this year. Economists from realtor.com and the National Association of Realtors expect strong demand to continue right through the holidays into next year. (8) Realtor.com's Danielle Hale says the demand continues and that "sellers can expect to see plenty of buyers" while NAR's Lawrence Yun expects "more sales compared to pre-pandemic winters going back all the way to 2006." In addition to this persistent demand for housing, supply chain issues have delayed some buyers who will continue to search for their dream homes this winter. The limited inventory will also give seller's an incentive to put their homes on the market. Investor Buying Spree Investors are also very busy. Redfin reports that investor purchase activity for residential property is up 80% in the third quarter compared to a year ago. It says that investors bought 18% of all the homes sold in Q3, and spent a record $64 billion. If you translate that into the number of homes purchased by investors, the total was a record 90,215 homes. Almost 75% of them were single-family homes. That's also an all-time high. (9) Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari says: "Increasing home prices fueled by an intense housing shortage have created opportunities for investors to reap big profits." Average monthly rents were up almost 11% year-over-year in September. That's the fastest rent growth in at least two years. Which cities are attracting most of the investor activity? Atlanta; Phoenix; Charlotte, North Carolina; Jacksonville, Florida; and Miami. You can see the full list in the Redfin report. We'll have that link in the show notes. Love Letter Lawsuit An Oregon real estate firm is suing state lawmakers over a ban on homebuyer "love letters." Those love letters typically offer details about the buyers that could lead to a biased decision by the seller. And that could violate fair housing laws. (10) The plaintiffs at Total Real Estate Group are calling the ban "censorship." They say the ban is based on mere speculati
Ep 1128The Real Estate News Brief: 2022 Home Price Forecasts, Single-Family Rent Growth, Record Starts for BTR
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending November 20th, 2021... home price forecasts for next year, single-family rent growth, and a new record for build-to-rent home starts. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week. The number of people applying for unemployment keeps dropping. Last week, just 268,000 people applied for state benefits. That's getting close to pre-pandemic levels which were in the low 200,000's. The number of people already getting state unemployment benefits is also lower. That number dropped to a total of 2.08 million. (1) Home starts were down slightly in October as builders struggled with supply chain issues and a labor shortage. They were down .7% from the previous month, but compared with October of last year, they were up slightly. Single-family starts were down the most, with a 3.9% decline. But there's a strong demand for housing, and builders are preparing for a much faster pace of construction. Permits rose for all types of buildings, with a 2.7% increase for single-families, an 8.2% increase for buildings with two to four units, and a 6.5% increase for larger multi-families. (2) Although builders are dealing with a lot of challenges, they are feeling confident about the market because there's such a huge demand. According to the National Association of Homebuilders, the level of confidence among builders is the highest it's been since last May. It's up three points for November to a reading of 83. (3) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates rose back above the 3% mark. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is up 12 points to 3.1%. The 15-year is also up 12 points to 2.39%. (4) Economists are blaming the increase on inflation, and are forecasting higher rates over the next few months. The National Association of Realtors senior economist, Nadia Evangelou, expects the housing market to slow down next year as more homes hit the market at higher prices with higher mortgage rates. (5) In other news making headlines… Where Are Home Prices Going? Zillow just published a new forecast for 2022 home prices. It is predicting that prices will rise 13.6% between October of this year and October of next year. In September, Zillow had predicted a 11.7% increase. Both those figures are lower than the rate of price growth for this year. They were up a record 19.9% between August of 2020 and August of this year. (6) Zillow researchers say: "The strong long-term outlook is driven by our expectations for tight market conditions to persist, with demand for housing exceeding the supply of available homes." As Fortune reports, not everyone agrees with Zillow's forecast. Goldman Sachs expects 2022 prices to rise another 16%, while Fannie Mae is expecting a lower 7.9% growth rate. CoreLogic is only expecting a 1.9% overall increase in prices, and the Mortgage Banks Association says it'll be more like 2.5%. Single-Family Rents Move Higher As you can see, home price forecasts are all over the map, but they all expect strong demand for housing to continue. And that's pushing rents higher for single-family homes. CoreLogic's single-family rental index for September shows that national rents are 10.2% higher year-over-year. Miami rents have gone up the most. Those rents are up 25.7% with rents for high-end homes rising the most. Phoenix is second on that list, followed by Las Vegas, Austin, San Diego, and Dallas. (7) John Burns Real Estate Consulting also tracks single-family rent growth. It shows that new lease effective rents were up 6% year-over-year in September. Phoenix was at the top of that list, at 14%. (8) Single-Family Build-to-Rent Starts The housing shortage is motivating a lot of developers and investors to bring more build-to-rent homes to the market. According to the National Association of Homebuilders, housing starts for those homes hit the highest level ever in the third quarter. Construction has been ramping up, with 47,000 build-to-rent starts over the last year. (9) Builder.com says that's a 17.5% increase over the previous four quarters. It says: "With the onset of the Great Recession and declines in the homeownership rate, the share of build-to-rent homes increased in the years after the recession. And while the market share… is small, it has been trending higher." That's it for today. Check the show notes for links and more info on these topics. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/
Ep 1127Is the 4% Rule Outdated?
The 4% rule is a well-known withdrawal rate for retirees, but a new Morningstar report challenges the current standard, saying it is now "outdated." The formula for determining how much you should withdraw from your retirement is complicated however, because every person's financial needs, tolerances for risk, and resources are so different. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Morningstar researchers analyzed the 4% withdrawal rate in a report called: "The State of Retirement Income: Safe Withdrawal Rates." (1) Their analysis includes forward-looking estimates on portfolio performance and inflation, and determined that the current rate of 4% should be reduced to 3.3%. "The State of Retirement Income" They used a 30-year window of time for their calculations, a 90% probability for success which means there's a 90% chance you will "not" run out of money during your lifetime, and a portfolio that is split between stocks and bonds. Morningstar's Christine Benz says that market conditions have boosted retirement portfolios in recent years, and that retirees may be lulled into thinking they'll get similar results in the future. But she doesn't expect that to happen, which would reduce the amount of anticipated gains, and retirement income. Currently, we have high stock prices, and low bond yields. Inflation is high at the moment but it has been low for a long time, and Morningstar expects inflation rates will settle back down over the long term. Benz told CNBC that, going forward, she expects to see a different set of economic circumstances. (2) According to Benz and the Morningstar analysis, stocks will likely fall to more average valuation levels, while bond yields rise. Based on this possible scenario, she says the withdrawal rate should be reduced to about 3.3%, as a general rule. Safe Withdrawal Rate for Retirees The "safe withdrawal rate" has changed over the years depending on market conditions, and can be viewed as more of a "range" that is influenced by personal circumstances. Over the last 90 years, withdrawal rates have gone from about 2.4% for someone with all bonds in their portfolio to 6.5% for someone with all stocks. The figures vary a lot depending on your time horizon, and what success rate you choose depending on your risk tolerance. So, a 6.5% withdrawal rate for an all-stock portfolio with a 90% success rate was common from 1975 through 1999. More recently, that withdrawal rate was more like 5.3% for the same stock portfolio and a 90% success rate. Morningstar also points out how you can withdraw more or less depending on the success rate that you choose. For example, if you have a 50% stock portfolio, and want a 100% success rate, you could start with a withdrawal rate of just 1.9%. That's over a 30-year time horizon. If you are not worried about running out of money, and you are okay with a 50% success rate, then you could withdraw 4.7%. Conservative Approach to Withdrawals The bottom line: Like the 4% figure, the 3.3% figure is considered "conservative." It's based on what Morningstar expects to be lower returns in the future, but also follows a conservative approach to withdrawals. But remember, this is supposed to be the "starting rate." Like social security, you can give yourself a cost-of-living increase each year that raises the amount. There are also other factors and strategies that play into the amount a retiree should withdraw, such as your anticipated life span, your lifestyle and how much money you need to support it, when you plan to start taking social security, other income sources such as pensions or real estate gains and income, and how much you have in your accounts. Some people take a flexible approach to withdrawals, depending on how the market is doing and how their investments are doing. During a down year, you might reduce your percentage and forgo the COLA, for example. As CNBC recommends, a conservative strategy could be your best bet during the early years of retirement because of something called "sequence of returns risk." That happens when you take too much out of your retirement account at the beginning, and reduce the amount that you are depending on for future gains. Even if you aren't close to retirement age right now, it's always good to think ahead. Going from a 4% withdrawal rate to 3.3% can be a big cut in pay if you don't have a lot of resources. With one million in the bank, a 3.3% withdrawal rate is about $2750 a month. That's about $550 less than a 4% withdrawal rate. This is why so many people look to supplement their retirement income with cash flowing real estate. With rental property, you never have to touch your principle. You can live off the cash flow generated from the rents. Additionally, inflation, based on history, the property would increase in value over time and rents would increase as well, while the mortgage debt decreases every year. If you
Ep 1126Supply Chain Backlog: The Cargo Ship Pile-Up at Ports
Supply chain problems continue as container ships pile up at U.S. ports. The number of ships waiting to offload off the Southern California coast just hit a new record. That's despite a new 24/7 schedule to get ships unloaded. There's also a new 'pop-up container yard' on the other side of the country to help get things moving. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. A record 111 container ships were sitting outside the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach on November 10th. According to an Insider blog, that tops a previous record set on October 21st for 108 ships. (1) Not Enough Dock Workers Consumer demand has been surging and there's been an effort to speed things up but there aren't enough dock workers and truck drivers to unload and deliver all the goods. Insider says the size of the backlog is unprecedented. Prior to the pandemic, there may have been as many as 17 ships waiting to unload. And now, it's typical to see more than 100 ships bobbing around offshore, and huge stacks of containers on the docks waiting to be picked up by truckers. Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force The White House launched a Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force last June to address the challenges at ports. Task force members met with local government leaders and companies to determine the cause of the bottlenecks and come up with solutions. The Port of Long Beach began the new 24/7 schedule in September. Los Angeles followed in October. According to the White House announcement, it's possible to move goods at the Port of L.A. 25% faster at night. (2) Various companies and unions also agreed to expanded work hours. Some of those companies include Target, Walmart, UPS, FedEx, Samsung, and Home Depot. The commitment from those six companies will make it possible to move an additional 3,500 containers per week, through the end of this year. Shipping Companies Face Big Fines That hasn't solved the problem however, and shipping firms now face fines if they don't get those containers moving more quickly. Insider reports that the two Southern California ports will begin fining companies $100 a day for each container that's left on the docks for too long. They have three days to move the containers if they are being shipped by rail and nine days to move them if they are going by truck. Those fines are expected to start hitting companies on November 15th. A global logistics company told Insider: "These containers would move if they could, but it's a combination of warehouse space, trucking and labor issues." American Shipper says, at the beginning of November, there were about 60,000 containers at these two ports for more than nine days, and they could all be eligible for fines. Ports Running Out of Room The government is also working on another potential solution with the announcement of a "pop-up container yard" at the Port of Savannah on the East Coast. The port will be able to redirect federal funds from a budget surplus to build the port. It will be a couple hundred miles inland from the coast along a rail line. That will give the Georgia Port Authority more space for containers that are waiting to be picked up. (3) The worst back-ups are in Southern California however. About 40% of the nation's imports reportedly go through those two ports. But smaller ports, like the one in Georgia, are also dealing with ships that are unloading cargo faster than truckers can take it away. The newly approved bipartisan infrastructure bill includes several measures to improve port operations. Among those measures are new grants and new grant flexibility, along with the Port Infrastructure Development Program to modernize ports and shipping routes. The supply chain issues we've been facing have impacted all parts of the economy. As you know, the housing industry has been heavily impacted by a shortage of building materials. That's caused construction delays and higher prices for new homes, as well as material shortages for do-it-yourself homeowners renovating their properties. You'll find more info by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can also find out more about real estate investing at our website by joining RealWealth for free. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources. That includes experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 - https://www.businessinsider.com/supply-chain-crisis-record-number-of-container-ships-ca-ports-2021-11 2 - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/supply-chain-crisis-holiday-shortages-plan-b1954506.html 3 - https://sports.yahoo.com/white-house-announces-pop-container-170539918.html
Ep 1125Amtrak Gets $66 Billion for a Major Expansion & Update
Amtrak is about to get a $66 billion upgrade that could open up new real estate markets. The funding is part of the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. It's also the largest amount of government funding for passenger rail in Amtrak's entire 50-year history. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Amtrak's CEO Bill Flynn is overjoyed. He had previously laid out a plan for Amtrak upgrades and expansion during the early months of the Biden administration. He told NBC News: "We have a clear vision for how we want to grow our business and reach more of America." Amtrak Connects US The plan is a 15-year strategy called "Amtrak Connects US." It calls for improvements to existing rail service as well as expansion into new cities and rural areas. Amtrak says the expansion will reach a total of 160 NEW communities with upgraded service on at least 20 existing routes. According to NBC News, the Rail Passengers Association has been lobbying members of Congress for several years to get this measure passed. (1) The association's president, Jim Mathews, says the current funding amount is "a down payment on literally decades of underinvestment." He says: "It's hard to explain to people how little this country has spent on rail. We as a country don't invest enough and it shows." Major Upgrade Needed The Northeast Corridor is an example of that kind of funding neglect. That's where Amtrak owns most of its own infrastructure and the experts say it needs updating. The director of a rail transportation program at Michigan Tech University says: "To increase ridership, you need convenience and reliability." He says he's not sure the Northeast Corridor has either one of those. Part of the upgrade involves a 450-mile corridor from Washington, D.C. to Boston. According to an Amtrak study, that upgrade alone will generate $195 billion in economic activity and create more than 26,000 jobs. Currently, Amtrak connects more than 600 destinations in 46 states, Washington, D.C., and three Canadian provinces. The only two states within the contiguous U.S. are Wyoming and South Dakota. New Amtrak Stations in 10 States Amtrak says that more than 10 states will get new Amtrak stations, including Wyoming. That station is headed for Cheyenne, Wyoming and will go south to Fort Collins, Denver, and Pueblo, Colorado. (2) Another new station is headed for Columbus, Ohio, which is one of the nation's biggest cities currently without an Amtrak station. It'll be connected along a route from Cincinnati-to-Columbus-to-Cleveland. Las Vegas, Nevada will also get a new station as a destination from Los Angeles. And a second Southern California route that runs through through Riverside County, will head to a new station in Phoenix. That station will also have a new direct connection to Tucson. A new route through Tennessee will provide train service from Nashville and Chattanooga to Atlanta, Macon and Savannah, Georgia. That will give passengers access to the Georgia coast. There are plans for a new station in Wilmington, North Carolina which will give passengers direct access to several other cities, and bring them close to the North Carolina coast. Other new stations are planned for Rockford, Illinois; Iowa City, Iowa; Duluth, Minnesota; Allentown and Scranton, Pennsylvania; Rockland, Maine; Louisville, Kentucky; Montgomery, Auburn, and Mobile, Alabama; and Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Amtrak plans to connect Houston and Dallas, along with Detroit and Toledo. And there are plans for more rail service across Florida connecting Miami, Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville. The timeline for the entire upgrade plan is from now through 2035. Construction Dive reports that Amtrak carried 32 million passengers in 2019 and expects to have an additional 20 million riders from all these new connections. (3) And when there are new ways to connect, there are new real estate markets to explore. If you'd like to find out more about Amtrak's plans for expansion, check the links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. You can also find out more about real estate investing at our website by joining RealWealth for free. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources. That includes experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/amtrak-ceo-outlines-plans-spending-66-billion-infrastructure-funding-rcna4786 2 -https://www.amtrakconnectsus.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Amtrak-2021-Corridor-Vision_2021-06-01_web-HR-maps-2.pdf 3 -https://www.constructiondive.com/news/amtrak-plans-major-expansion-by-2035-if-federal-infrastructure-bill-passes/608650/
Ep 1124The Real Estate News Brief: Fed Chair Finalist, Top Property Investing Sector, Adverse Market Fee Bonanza
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending November 13th, 2021... the two Fed Chair finalists, the top property investing sector, and the billions earned from a pandemic fee on refinancing loans. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week. President Biden is reportedly close to a decision on who he'll nominate as chief of the Federal Reserve. Fed Chief Jerome Powell's four-year term is up in February, and it appears that Biden is now deciding whether to keep Powell or replace him with Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Brainard is considered more progressive than Powell. She's described in a Barron's article as more "dovish on monetary policy and stronger on bank regulation." Some Fed watchers also believe that Brainard is more in tune with Biden's economic agenda, but Powell has strong support from moderate Democrats and Republicans, which gives him an edge over Brainard. Biden has said he'll make a decision "fairly quickly." Some believe he'll announce a nomination by Thanksgiving. (1) (2) Whoever lands that job will be tackling inflation, which surged to a 31-year-high this last week. The consumer price index was up .9% in October, according to the government. That raises the annual rate of inflation from 5.4% in September to 6.2% in October, which is more than triple the Fed's target of 2%. It's also the highest rate of inflation since November of 1990. If you eliminate higher prices for food and energy, the core CPI is about 4.6%. That's up from 4% in September. (3) The gauge the Fed watches more closely is the PCE which stands for personal consumption expenditures. That's rising more slowly. The PCE was 4.4% in September and 3.6% for the core rate. October numbers haven't come out yet. Initial applications for state unemployment benefits dropped again. There were just 267,000 new claims last week while layoffs also fell to a record low. (4) Employers have been struggling to find enough workers to fill positions. There are currently 10.4 million job openings and just 7.4 million people listed as unemployed. One result of this lopsided situation: Companies are increasing hourly rates to attract candidates. Data from Indeed.com shows that jobs offering less than $15 an hour are scarce. (5) Consumers are not very happy about the current economic situation. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to its lowest level in a decade. The November reading was 66.8. That's a drop of about five points from October, and about 35 points lower than the pre-pandemic reading of 101. (6) Mortgage Rates On a more positive note, mortgage rates dipped below the 3% level this last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down 11 basis points to 2.98%. The 15-year was 2.27%. (7) In other news making headlines… Single-Family Build-to-Rent Boom Investors are clamoring into the single-family build-to-rent market, as demand and rents soar. A new Green Street report shows that investors are earning 8% on average. That is the highest amount among the 18 property sectors analyzed by Green Street. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, the weighted average return for all property sectors is 6.1%. (8) Housing economics consultant, Brad Hunter, says that builders provided almost 100,000 new rental homes in 2021, and that investors have pumped about $30 billion into this corner of the real estate market. The momentum has created a frenzy for land that's suitable for build-to-rent. One builder told the Journal: "You almost have to find the land before it gets put on the market." GSE Bonanza from Adverse Market Fee Remember the "adverse market fee" on refinancing loans during the pandemic? It was a 50 basis point fee for refi loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and it earned those two GSEs a bundle! According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Fannie and Freddie earned $5.3 billion from that fee. (9) It says the money will cover about 70% of the cost of the GSE's Covid relief programs, such as the moratorium on foreclosures, and forbearance programs that allowed homeowners to skip their mortgage payments. The adverse market fee was in force for about 10 months, starting in October of last year. Opendoor Buys RedDoor iBuyer Opendoor will be able to pre-approve applicants in just "one" minute, with the acquisition of online mortgage broker RedDoor. The mortgage company was founded in 2018 and has partnered up with more than 70 lenders. (10) The announcement comes at a time when Zillow has announced the elimination of its iBuying program, and has created doubts about the profitability of the iBuying business. But as HousingWire reports: "Some investors see add-on services… (like mortgages) as a possible way for iBuyers to eventually turn a profit." Opendoor expanded into the mortgage business in 2019. And it reportedly "smashed through" e
Ep 1123The Real Estate News Brief: Record High Homeseller Profits, Adding Value with ADUs, Top Destination States
In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending November 6th, 2021… why it's a "banner year" for homeseller profits, how much an ADU will increase your home value, and which states are attracting the most newcomers. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week. The Federal Reserve has announced its "taper timetable." The Fed is currently buying Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities at a rate of $120 billion a month an economic stimulus. It now plans to reduce that amount by $15 billion per month in November and December, with similar reductions expected next year. If there's no adjustment to the pace of reductions, the tapering process would be complete by mid-2022. Although the Fed believes the economy is strong enough to begin the taper, Fed chief Jerome Powell says: "We don't think it's time yet to raise interest rates." (1) The jobless rate dipped again this last week. There were only 269,000 initial claims for state benefits and 2.1 million continuing claims. Altogether, 2.67 million people are collecting either state or federal benefits. Before the pandemic, there were just under 2 million people getting unemployment checks. (2) Construction spending was down slightly in September, compared to August. The census bureau says it was down about a half a percent, with a bigger drop for single-family homes. But compared to September of last year, it's up almost 20%. The National Association of Home Builders blames the dip on supply chain issues, higher material coasts, and the labor shortage. (3) That pullback isn't helping the inventory problem. HouseCanary says it dropped close to record lows in September. And it expects the situation to get worse as we head into the next year. Higher home prices are contributing to the problem as fewer less expensive homes are put up for sale. (4) According to the St. Louis Fed, the nation had 6.5 months of supply in August. That dropped to 5.7 months of supply in September. (6) Meanwhile, the homeownership rate hasn't changed over the last quarter. It's still at 65.4%, which is down from a high of 67.9% in the second quarter of last year. If you determine homeownership by age, it's highest for people over age 65 at about 80%. Regionally, the Midwest is the highest at about 71%. (7) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates are backing off a bit from a recent rise. Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down 5 basis points to 3.09%. The 15-year was down 2 points to 2.45%. (8) In other news making headlines… New High for Homeseller Profits Home sellers are realizing some big gains. ATTOM Data Solutions says they are getting almost 50% more than they paid for the home, or about $100,000. That's for a median-priced single-family home or condo. In the second quarter of this year, sellers typically gained about $89,000. (9) ATTOM's chief product officer, Todd Teta, says: "The third quarter of this year marked another period in a banner year for a housing market boom that's steaming ahead through its 10th year." He says: "For now, the market engine seems to have nothing but high-octane gas in the tank." ADUs Add Big Value to Homes ADUs can also add a lot of value to your home. According to Porch.com. An accessory dwelling unit can add an average 35% onto the sale price. In some cities, such as Savannah, Georgia and Cleveland, Ohio, it can "double" the sale price. (10) They can also generate passive income as rentals, but they are not cheap to build. The Porch.com study says the average cost of an ADU is $180,000. There are about 1.4 million of them in the U.S., according to 2019 information. States Attracting the Most Residents A new study on resident migration shows that Florida is the top destination for people looking to move to another state. The LendingTree analysis looked at mortgage loan data for the last year-and-a-half to identify pandemic migration patterns. The researchers say: "The Sunshine State has a long history of bringing in visitors and new residents, particularly retirees, thanks to a mix of affordable housing, no state income tax, and sunny weather." (11) The analysis also found that Texas has the highest number of people moving "within" the state. Oklahoma and Florida were close behind Texas, while New York had the highest number of people fleeing the state. That's it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com. As a member, you have access to the Investor Portal where you can view sample property pro-formas and connect with our network of resources, including experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Link: for newsforinvestors.com - https://join.realwealth.com/?utm