Us and Them - U.S. Refiners to Remain Global Leaders, but Prospects Vary Widely by Region

The U.S. refining industry has undergone a number of changes in recent years and more turbulence looks likely as global economic and trade patterns shift and energy transition moves forward. For some refineries, this has led to closures due to weak profits, rising regulatory costs and declining demand for products, particularly gasoline. But other refineries have prospered — and even invested in expansions — while the U.S. industry as a whole has evolved into the most competitive system in the world. Overall, the prospects have been very regionally (and even facility) specific. As detailed in the most recent Future of Fuels report from our Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice, this regional differentiation will continue and shift over the coming years. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss what we expect for the U.S. refining industry — where closures will likely take place, where the industry might actually add capacity, and the reasons for those actions.