Pressure Points

Now that Elon has inched up the Robotaxi bar, investors are recalibrating autonomy milestones. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Cook is the right person to lead Apple into AI. After that, the baton gets handed to Ternus. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Google's golden goose is ill. AI Overviews won’t be the cure. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The Pressure Point in Meta’s Quarter: AI Is "Working" for Zuckerberg. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Big week for ridesharing, driven by $TSLA and $GOOG earnings, along with comments from the White House. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Bottom line on Google earnings: The business is stable, but the ChatGPT overhang isn’t going away — and there’s nothing Google can say to change that in the short term. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

For Tesla’s long-term autonomous vision to become a reality, deliveries need to reaccelerate. That should start next year. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The near-term results and guide were great but not extraordinary. Long-term things should return to extraordinary. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

I think the initial Google reaction is an overreaction. Google Cloud was not as bad as it first appeared, Search still needs an overhaul, and the company needs to deliver on its promise of exciting upcoming products. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Apple's quarter was not as bad as the numbers first looked based on channel inventory and the guide. I still believe Apple Intelligence will reaccelerate iPhone sales starting in June based on early uptake data in the US. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Tesla basically dropped the 2025 bar to the floor and raised the 2026, 2027, and 2028 bars to the stars. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Powell's comments spooked tech investors. While the AI trade may be dampened in the near-term, I expect December earnings to be the catalyst that returns confidence to AI investors. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Bottom line with Nvidia earnings: I think the company will grow much faster than the Street expects in CY26. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Apple’s September quarter and December guide reminds us that it will take a few quarters for the Apple Intelligence acceleration to begin. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Following the Meta call, the key takeaway is the core business is doing great and they’re aggressively investing in AI to become the next big thing. My guess is that big thing is related to monetizing search. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This proved to be the most important quarter for Google in 7-10 years given it showed Search revenue is benefiting from generative AI. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Tesla is up 12% given there’s positive near-term data points along with a fatter golden carrot. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The bears will say Nvidia earnings were good but not great. The bulls will say favorable July and October guidance doesn’t matter because the upside remains over the next two years as AI will be bigger than the internet. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Nvidia Preview Pressure Point: It’s all about Jensen’s language about timing of reaching supply-demand equilibrium. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

While it will take 2-3 years to sort out, I believe Google will win the appeal on the Search placement decision. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Investors are going to get behind Zuckerberg’s AI vision. Meta had a solid quarter, solid guide, and most importantly, presented the company’s most compelling vision of how and when AI will transform the business. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Essential question for Google investors is: when will AI benefit Search? This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Gene talks Tesla's road to profitability in autonomy and their June quarter earnings. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Bad news is Micron is down 7% in after hours. Good news is the AI trade is intact. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Apple’s AI features will be enough to move growth higher than expected. PS topic: Today was the biggest day for Apple since the iPhone announcement. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Gene recaps Nvidia's April quarter and discusses the key takeaway: growth will be higher for longer. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Gene talks Apple's March quarter earnings. The stock is up mostly because of the guidance. The good news doesn't end there. Revenue growth should accelerate through the back half of CY24. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

On this episode of Pressure Points, Gene previews Apple earnings on Thursday. Get ready to hear more about a step-up in Capex. Big picture, more spending in AI is really good for Apple long-term. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Gene talks how GOOG being up 12% in after-hours makes sense because both Search and GPC growth accelerated. Also, margins are going higher this year. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Meta down 17% is both explainable and an overreaction. Big Picture: They’re going to build multiple new large businesses around AI in 2025 and beyond. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

On this episode of Pressure Points, Gene outlines the key takeaways from Tesla's earnings. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

I’m bracing for shares of TSLA to go lower after they report because consensus deliveries for 2024, 2025 and 2026 are likely too high. My long-term positive view is unchanged. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Gene has a different explanation than Tesla about why March deliveries were ugly. Big picture; This will pass because Tesla is making the right decisions for the long-run. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

On this episode of Pressure Points Gene breaks down the AI expectations for Apple's WWDC event in June. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Meta investors should pay close attention to what is happening with TikTok. While an outright ban on TikTok is now less likely, if it happened it would have a material positive impact on Meta's business. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Sounds like FSD is making some material improvements. I discuss when and to what extent it will impact Tesla's business in this episode of Pressure Points. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

The most important comment on the Nvidia earnings call was Jensen’s closing remarks about the size of the opportunity. We discuss in this episode of Pressure Points. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Here’s the preview for Nvidia earnings coming up on Feb 21. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

When it comes to META and AI, Llama is a meaningful lever the company can pull in 2-5 years. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Gene Munster and Andrew Murphy break down 48 hrs with Vision Pro. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Gene talks about how Meta’s business is humming, and AI is going to make it better. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Gene previews Apple's earnings tomorrow night (Feb 1, 2024) and the several moving parts this quarter. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Gene talks about how Microsoft is seeing the impact of AI in Azure, Office and cost savings. Bottom line, Street estimates are going up slightly tomorrow. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com

Gene talks Google's solid quarter, especially in Cloud. The fractional disappointment was commentary about Search growth in 2024. Deepwater owns GOOG and believes AI will be a meaningful longterm benefit to the company. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit deepwatermgmt.substack.com