January 16-18 | Ledger Recap
Prediction Markets HQ: Daily Sports · Prediction Markets HQ | Daily Sports Betting, Kalshi & Polymarket Data
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Show Notes
In this episode of the Ledger Recap, we audit a 4.3-unit gain to find where the algorithm left money on the table. We break down the systemic pace mispricing in the Cavaliers vs. 76ers game and analyze why playing 'pennies in front of a steamroller' with Dayton's winner contracts was a strategic failure of conviction calibration.
Marcus Webb introduces the new 'Conviction-to-Price' rule to prevent buying winner contracts at inefficient prices and discusses the importance of mid-game liquidity and defensive gravity in the Pelicans vs. Pacers collapse.
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"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
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