Power Problems

“Tripwire” forces are deployed overseas to bolster the credibility of America’s threats and promises. New research shows this key feature of U.S. foreign policy is misguided. Professors Paul Musgrave of University of Massachusetts Amherst and Steven Ward of University of Cambridge explain the logic of tripwires as a deterrent and showcase public opinion surveys that undermine that logic.Show NotesPaul Musgrave bioSteven Ward bioPaul Musgrave and Steven Ward, “The Tripwire Effect: Experimental Evidence Regarding U.S. Public Opinion,” Foreign Policy Analysis 19, no. 4 (October 2023).Paul Musgrave and Steven War, “Testing Tripwire Theories Using Survey Experiments,” working paper, American Political Science Association, 2021.Doug Bandow, Tripwire: Korea and U.S. Foreign Policy in a Changed World(Washington DC: Cato Institute, 1996). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The United States sells arms to almost any country willing to pay for them, but many recipients are risky, unstable, undemocratic, and liable to misuse the weapons. Cato defense and foreign policy studies policy analyst Jordan Cohen explains why the U.S. government sells arms to risky countries, why it doesn't give the U.S. strategic leverage, the costs and consequences of U.S. security assistance to Ukraine, the problem of cluster munitions, U.S. support for the Nigerian military (which recently executed a coup d'état), and how to reform U.S. arms sales policies.  Show NotesJordan Cohen bioJordan Cohen and A. Trevor Thrall, “2022 Arms Sales Risk Index,” Cato Institute policy analysis no. 953, July 18, 2023.Jordan Cohen and Jonathan Ellis Allen, “When our Weapons Go Missing,” Reason, July 31, 2023.Barry R. Posen, “Ukraine’s Implausible Theories of Victory,” Foreign Affairs, July 8, 2023.Jordan Cohen and Jonathan Ellis Allen, “Cluster Munitions May Win a Battle but not Ukraine’s War,” Inkstick Media, July 13, 2023.Jordan Cohen and Jonathan Ellis Allen, “Did the Pentagon Just Make a $3 Billion Accounting Error – or Did It Do Something Even Worse?” Reason, May 19, 2023.Jordan Cohen, “Coups Are Just An Arms (Sale) Length Away: US Weapons Equip Niger’s Military,” Cato at Liberty, August 3, 2023.Jordan Cohen, “Deal or No Deal: Explaining Congressional Restrictions on Arms Transfers,” PhD diss (George Mason University, 2023).Jon Hoffman, Jordan Cohen, and Jonathan Ellis Allen, “Biden Steamrolls toward Disaster in the Middle East,” The Hill, August 2, 2023. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Michael C. Desch, professor of international relations at University of Notre Dame, discusses the disconnect between political science scholarship and policymaking and offers solutions for how to bridge the gap.  Show NotesMichael C. Desch bioMichael C. Desch, Cult of the Irrelevant: The Waning Influence of Social Science on National Security (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2019).Paul C. Avey, Michael C. Desch, Eric Parajon, Susan Peterson, Ryan Powers, and Michael J. Tierney, “Does Social Science Inform Foreign Policy? Evidence from a Survey of US National Security, Trade, and Development Officials,” International Studies Quarterly 66, no. 1 (March 2022).Benjamin H. Friedman and Justin Logan, “Why Washington Doesn’t Debate Grand Strategy,” Strategic Studies Quarterly 10, no. 4 (Winter 2016): pp. 14-45. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sameer Lalwani, Senior Expert at the United States Institute for Peace, discusses India's place in global politics, the advantages and drawbacks of deepening U.S.-India relations, India's illiberal turn, Indian relations with Russia, Pakistan, and China, and related topics. He also discusses more restrained alternatives to U.S. naval strategy.Show NotesSameer Lalwani bioSameer Lalwani and Joshua Shifrinson, “Whither Command of the Commons? Choosing Security over Control,” MIT Political Science Department Research Paper No. 2013-15 (April 1, 2013).Sameer Lalwani and Vikram J. Singh, “A Big Step Forward in U.S.-India Defense Ties,” The Hindustan (New Delhi), April 6, 2023.Sameer Lalwani et al., “What to Watch in 2023: India’s Pivotal Year on the Global Stage,” United States Institute of Peace, February 8, 2023.Sameer Lalwani and Happymon Jacobs, “Will India Ditch Russia?” Foreign Affairs, January 24, 2023.Sameer Lalwani and Heather Byrne, “Great Expectations: Asking Too Much of the US-India Strategic Partnership,” The Washington Quarterly 42, no. 3 (2019): pp. 41-64. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

CNAS adjunct senior fellow Elsa B. Kania breaks down the military and political implications of artificial intelligence. She discusses the scope of military applications, battlefield "singularity" and the speed of decision-making, human vs autonomous weapons systems, AI competition with China, public-private partnerships, governance of AI, and how AI should affect strategy, among other topics. Show NotesElsa B. Kania bioElsa B. Kania and Lorand Lasaki, “A Sharper Approach to China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy Begins by Dispelling Myths,” Defense One, February 4, 2021.Elsa B. Kania and Joe McReynolds, “The Biden Administration Should Review and Rebuild the Trump Administration’s China Initiative From the Ground Up,” Lawfare, February 22, 2021.Elsa B. Kania and Lorand Lasaki, “Myths and Realities of China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy,” Center for a New American Security, January 28, 2021.Elsa B. Kania and John Costello, “Quantum Hegemony? China’s Ambitions and the Challenge to U.S. Innovation Leadership,” Center for a New American Security, September 12, 2018. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Show DescriptionChristopher Layne, distinguished professor at Texas A&M University, provides historical context around the Russian invasion of Ukraine and questions direct U.S. intervention on Ukraine's behalf. He discusses the U.S. strategy in Europe following WWII and following the end of the Cold War, NATO expansion, tensions in U.S.-Russian nuclear policies, Russian perspectives and motivations, potential resolutions to the conflict, and what could exacerbate the war. Show NotesChristopher Layne bioChristopher Layne, The Peace of Illusions: American Grand Strategy from 1940 to Present(Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2007).Benjamin Schwarz and Christopher Layne, “Why Are We in Ukraine?” Harper’s Magazine (June 2023). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Quincy Institute director of East Asia, Michael D. Swaine explains how to manage the rise in China's power and influence through a restrained grand strategy, rather than through confrontation and primacy. He discusses Chinese diplomacy on the global stage, the problem with Washington's current strategy to contain and confront Beijing, how to alleviate the security dilemma, managing US alliances and altering US force posture in East Asia, and handling the problem of Taiwan, among other topics.  Show NotesMichael D. Swaine bioMichael D. Swaine and Andrew Bacevich, “A Restraint Approach to U.S.-China Relations: Reversing the Slide Toward Crisis and Conflict,” Quincy Institute paper no. 11, April 18, 2023.Michael D. Swaine, “The Worrisome Erosion of the One China Policy,” The National Interest, February 27, 2023.Michael D. Swaine, “What the U.S. Gets Wrong About Taiwan and Deterrence,” The Diplomat, January 23, 2023. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Notre Dame associate professor Eugene Gholz discusses U.S. strategy, the low costs of neutrality in war, global oil markets and why the U.S. does too much militarily in the Middle East. He also advises a “defensive defense” strategy in East Asia, the ineffectiveness and overuse of economic sanctions, and decoupling from China.  Show NotesEugene Gholz bioEugene Gholz and Daryl G. Press, “The Effects of Wars on Neutral Countries: Why it Doesn't Pay to Preserve the Peace,” Security Studies 10, no. 4 (2001): pp. 1-57.Eugene Gholz and Daryl G. Press, “Protecting “The Prize”: Oil and the U.S. National Interest,” Security Studies 19, no. 3 (2010): pp. 453-485.Eugene Gholz, “Nothing Much to Do: Why America Can Bring All Troops Home From the Middle East,” Quincy Paper No. 7, June 24, 2021.Eugene Gholz, Benjamin Friedman, and Enea Gjoza, “Defensive Defense: A Better Way to Protect US Allies in Asia,” The Washington Quarterly 42, no. 4 (2019): pp. 171-189. Eugene Gholz and Llewelyn Hughes, “Market Structure and Economic Sanctions: The 2010 Rare Earth Elements Episode as a Pathway Case of Market Adjustment,” Review of International Political Economy 28, no. 3 (2021): pp. 611-634. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

King’s College professor Richard Ned Lebow discusses his vast body of work on international politics. He talks about his cultural theory of international politics, Thucydides, realism, deterrence, Russia and the causes of the Ukraine war, and hegemonic stability theory, among other topics. Show NotesRichard Ned Lebow bioRichard Ned Lebow, The Quest For Knowledge in International Relations (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2022).Richard Ned Lebow, A Cultural Theory of International Relations(Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2009).Richard Ned Lebow, Why Nations Fight: Past and Future Motives for War (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2010).Richard Ned Lebow, Avoiding War, Making Peace (Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017).Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1989).Richard Ned Lebow, Between Peace and War: The Nature of International Crisis (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981).Simon Reich and Richard Ned Lebow, Good-Bye Hegemony! Power and Influence in the Global System (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2014). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Japan has realized that they need to take more responsibility for their security in response to China’s rise, but there remain disagreements among U.S. allies about how to confront China. Dartmouth College professor Jennifer Lind discusses the threat environment in East Asia, Japan’s military spending and relations with its neighbors, and how collective narratives about historical baggage between countries can shape policy.  Show NotesJennifer Lind bioElbridge Colby and Jennifer Lind, “Japan Must Disavow Pacifism and Embrace Collective Defense,” Nikkei Asia, June 18, 2021.Jennifer Lind, “Japan Steps Up,” Foreign Affairs, December 23, 2022.Jennifer Lind, “With U.S. Help, Japan’s Position towards China Hardens,” Financial Times, April 21, 2021.Jennifer Lind, “Narratives and International Reconciliation,” Journal of Global Security Studies 5, no. 2 (2020): pp. 229-247.Jennifer Lind, Sorry States: Apologies in International Politics (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2010).Jennifer Lind and Daryl G. Press, “Reality Check,” Foreign Affairs 99, no. 2 (March/April 2020).Jennifer Lind, “Great Power Drives Great-Power Narratives,” Asia Policy 16, no. 3 (July 2021): pp. 142-147.Jennifer Lind and Chikako Kawakatsu Ueki, “Is Japan Back? Measuring Nationalism and Military Assertiveness in Asia’s Other Great Power,” Journal of East Asian Studies 21 (2021): pp. 367-401. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, explains how China's impartial approach to diplomacy gives it an edge against America's more Manichean tendencies. He also discusses what US troops are doing in the unauthorized war in Syria, Beijing's diplomatic mediation of negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran -- and potentially between Ukraine and Russia, and what accounts for the slow pace of change in America's posture in the Middle East, among other topics.  Show NotesTrita Parsi bioTrita Parsi and Kalid Aljabri, “How China Became a Peacemaker in the Middle East,” Foreign Affairs, March 15, 2023.Trita Parsi, “The U.S. Is Not an Indispensable Peacemaker,” New York Times, March 22, 2023. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What can we learn from the great empires of history? Tulane professor and Cato adjunct scholar Christopher Fettweis is the author of The Pursuit of Dominance: 2000 Years of Superpower Grand Strategy. He discusses grand strategy, balancing means and ends, the wisdom of restraint, the temptation to overextend, and other lessons to draw from the history of empires. Show NotesChristopher Fettweis bioChristopher J. Fettweis, The Pursuit of Dominance: 2000 Years of Superpower Grand Strategy(New York: Oxford University Press, 20222).Christopher J. Fettweis, “Restraining Rome: Lessons in Grand Strategy from Emperor Hadrian,” Survival 60, no. 4 (August-September 2018): pp. 123-150. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Over time, U.S. foreign policy has become increasingly activist, interventionist, and hostile despite facing fewer direct national security threats. These military interventions have also gradually become less connected to the national interest. Tufts University professor Monica Toft and Bridgewater State University assistant professor Sidita Kushi explain their quantitative research on US interventionism and explore alternative strategies.  Show NotesMonica Toft bioSidita Kushi bioMonic Duffy Toft and Sidita Kushi, Dying by the Sword: The Militarization of US Foreign Policy(New York City: Oxford University Press, 2023). Forthcoming.Sidita Kushi and Monica Duffy Toft, “Introducing the Military Intervention Project: A New Dataset on US Military Interventions, 1776–2019,” Journal of Conflict Resolution (2022).Monica Duffy Toft and Sidita Kushi, “The Roots of Washington’s Addiction to Military Force,” Foreign Affairs, January 10, 2023.Monica Duffy Toft, “Getting Religion Right in Civil Wars,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 65, no. 9 (2021): pp. 1607-1634.Sidita Kushi, “Selective Humanitarians: How Region and Conflict Perception Drive Military Interventions in Intrastate Crises,” International Relations (2022).Sidita Kushi, “Regional Bias Too Obvious in Western Response to Humanitarian Atrocities,” EURACTIV, September 27, 2022.Monica Duffy Toft, “America’s Modern Addiction to the Big Stick,” Responsible Statecraft, June 21, 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The United States has sent a vast amount of aid to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia’s invasion. Defense Priorities’ Rajan Menon and Daniel DePetris explain that while the war is likely to end in a negotiated agreement, neither side is motivated to negotiate right now. They also discuss the need for European defense autonomy.  Show NotesRajan Menon bioDaniel DePetris bioRajan Menon and Daniel DePetris, “Europe Doesn’t Need the United States Anymore,” Foreign Policy, January 30, 2023.Lessons from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Symposium at Defense PrioritiesRajan Menon and Daniel DePetris, “We Can’t Keep Treating Talk of Negotiations to End the Ukraine War as Off Limits,” The Guardian, November 3, 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Michelle Murray, associate professor at Bard College, explains how states aspire to major power identity and status, how the struggle for recognition in world politics produces conflict, and the social dimensions of the security dilemma. She also discusses the history of US and German naval expansion in the 19th century, realism and constructivism, and how to avoid war with a rising China, among other topics.  Show NotesMichelle Murray bioMichelle Murray, The Struggle for Recognition in International Relations: Status, Revisionism, and Rising Powers (New York: Oxford University Press, 2019).  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ahsan Butt, associate professor at George Mason University, discusses the problems in Pakistani politics and government, the changes in U.S.-Pakistani relations since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s relations with the Taliban, India, and China. He also explains his theory of why the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003. Ahsan Butt bioPaul Staniland, Adnan Naseemullah, and Ahsan Butt, “Pakistan’s Military Elite,” Journal of Security Studies 43, no. 1 (2018): pp. 74-103.Ahsan Butt, “Clash of the Titans: India and Pakistan Continue to Battle Over Kashmir,” The National Interest, August 24, 2020.Ahsan Butt, “Why Did the United States Invade Iraq in 2003?” Security Studies 28, no. 2 (2019): pp. 250-285. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stephen Wertheim and Matt Duss of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace analyze President Joe Biden’s foreign policy performance two years into his administration. They discuss US policies on Ukraine, Russia, on the use of economic sanctions, the war in Yemen, the stalled Iran deal, the politics of progressive foreign policy, and more.Show NotesStephen Wertheim bioMatthew Duss bioMatthew Duss and Stephen Wertheim, “A Better Biden Doctrine,” The New Republic, January 4, 2023.Stephen Wertheim, “World War III Begins with Forgetting,” The New York Times, December 2, 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Does international law actually impose real constraints on states? Michael Poznansky, associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College, discusses why states choose to pursue overt vs. covert action, the role of plausible deniability, and the “hypocrisy costs” associated frequent violations of the non-intervention principle.Show NotesMichael Poznansky bioMichael Poznansky (2021), "The Psychology of Overt and Covert Intervention," Security Studies 30, no. 3 (2021): pp. 325–353.Michael Poznansky, In the Shadow of International Law: Secrecy and Regime Change in the Postwar World (New York: Oxford University Press, 2020).Michael Poznansky, “The Appeal of Covert Action: Psychology and the Future of Irregular Warfare,” Modern War Institute, September 6, 2021.Michael Poznansky, "Revisiting Plausible Deniability," Journal of Strategic Studies 45, no. 4 (2022): pp. 511-533.Martha Finnemore, “Legitimacy, Hypocrisy, and the Social Structure of Unipolarity: Why Being a Unipole Isn’t All It’s Cracked Up to Be,” World Politics 61, no. 1 (January 2009): pp. 58-85. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A common argument against U.S. troop withdrawals points to the risk of creating strategic vacuums that rival powers could then fill to great advantage. Benjamin H. Friedman, director of policy at Defense Priorities, explains why such fears are without merit. He discusses, among many topics, the value of territory in contemporary international politics, how power generates paranoia, and whether the U.S. should reduce its force posture abroad.Show Notes:Benjamin H. Friedman bioBenjamin H. Friedman, “Don’t Fear Vacuums: We Can Go Home,” Defense Priorities Report, December 7, 2022.Benjamin H. Friedman, “No, Afghanistan Did Not Hurt U.S. ‘Credibility’,” UnHerd, August 31, 2022.Benjamin H. Friedman, “Bad Idea: Assuming Trade Depends on the Navy,” Defense360, January 7, 2022.Jennifer Keister, “The Illusion of Chaos: Why Ungoverned Spaces Aren’t Ungoverned, and Why That Matters,” Cato Policy Analysis no. 766, December 9, 2014. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Pusan National University professor Robert E. Kelly looks back at Trump era policies toward North Korea, discusses what a deal with Pyongyang might entail, the impact of South Korean politics, and whether changes in US posture can alter the persistent status quo on the peninsula.  Show NotesRobert E. Kelly bioRobert E. Kelly, “The Persistent Status Quo with North Korea: Why Has so Little Changed since 2017?,” Korean Journal of Defense Analysis 31, no. 3 (2019).Robert E. Kelly and Paul Poast, “The Allies Are Alright: Why America Can Get Away with Bullying Its Friends,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 2 (March/April 2022).Robert E. Kelly, “In Defense of North Korean Sanctions,” Korea Observer 53, no. 2 (Summer 2022).  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jasen Castillo, associate professor of international affairs at Texas A&M University, discusses the role of nuclear weapons and deterrence in the ongoing war in Ukraine.  Show Notes:Jasen Castillo bioJasen Castillo, “The Nuclear Risks in Russia’s War with Ukraine Are Real,” Chicago Tribune, October 31, 2022. Jasen Castillo, “The Cold Comfort of Mutually Assured Destruction,” War on the Rocks, June 16, 2021.Luke Henkhaus, “What Does Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Mean for the Wider War?” Texas A&M Today, September 20, 2022 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Brian Finucane, senior adviser at International Crisis Group, and Brianna Rosen, Senior Fellow at Just Security, discuss how the Global War on Terror is still ongoing and has allowed the executive branch to usurp war making authority from Congress, with disastrous and illiberal results.Show NotesBrianna Rosen bioBrian Finucane bio“Overkill: Reforming the Legal Basis for the U.S. War on Terror,” Crisis Group Report No. 5, September 17, 2021.Brian Finucane, “Still at War: The United States in the Sahel,” Just Security, April 7, 2022.Brian Finucane, “Assessing Biden’s New Policy Framework for Counterterrorism Direct Action,” Just Security, October 11, 2022.Brianna Rosen, “Ending Perpetual War,” Just Security, October 25, 2022.Tess Bridgeman and Brianna Rosen, “Introduction to Symposium: Still at War – Where and Why the United States is Fighting the ‘War on Terror,’” Just Security, March 24, 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stephen M. Walt, Harvard University professor of international affairs, discusses the prospects for a negotiated ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, the risk of nuclear escalation, and the potential for a prolonged stalemate. He also proposes a new future for NATO as well as suggestions for how to stabilize great power rivalry on both the economic and military fronts, particularly with China.  Show NotesStephen Walt bioStephen M. Walt, “Russia’s Defeat Would Be America’s Problem,” Foreign Policy, September 27, 2022.Stephen M. Walt, “Which NATO Do We Need?” Foreign Policy, September 14, 2022.Stephen M. Walt, “Why Wars Are Easy to Start and Hard to End,” Foreign Policy, August 29, 2022.Dani Rodrik and Stephen M. Walt, “How to Build a Better Order: Limiting Great Power Rivalry in an Anarchic World,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 5 (September/October 2022). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stimson Center senior fellow Emma Ashford and University of Birmingham professor and Cato adjunct scholar Patrick Porter discuss the intensification of the war in Ukraine, Putin's nuclear threats, realist perspectives on Russian objectives, and possible US policy responses. Emma Ashford bioPatrick Porter bioEmma Ashford, “In Praise of Lesser Evils,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 5 (September/October 2022).Justin Logan, Benjamin H. Friedman, and Patrick Porter, “We’re Not All Ukrainians Now,” Politico Europe, May 17, 2022.Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig, “How Should the West Respond to Putin’s Military Mobilization?” Foreign Policy, September 23, 2022.Patrick Porter, “The Realist Boogeyman,” The Critic, June 15, 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The increasingly competitive U.S.-China relationship is subject to various perverse incentives and negative feedback loops. Jessica Chen Weiss, Cornell University Professor for China and Asia-Pacific Studies, discusses China’s rise and how to avoid a zero-sum and conflict-prone great power relationship.Show Notes:Jessica Chen Weiss bioJessica Chen Weiss, “The China Trap: U.S. Foreign Policy and the Perilous Logic of Zero-Sum Competition,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 5 (September/October 2022).Thomas Pepinsky and Jessica Chen Weiss, “The Clash of Systems? Washington Should Avoid Ideological Competition with Beijing,” Foreign Affairs, June 11, 2021.Alistair Iain Johnston, “China in a World of Orders: Rethinking Compliance and Challenge in Beijing's International Relations,” International Security 44, no. 2 (Fall 2019): pp. 9-60. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, many cyber security analysts expected Russia to rely far more heavily on cyber tactics. Marine Corps University distinguished senior fellow Brandon Valeriano discusses the pitfalls of cyber security policy and research.  Show Notes: Brandon Valeriano bioBrandon Valeriano, “The Failure of Offense/Defense Balance in Cyber Security,” The Cyber Defense Review (Summer 2022).Brandon Valeriano, “Why Can’t Cyber Security Experts Move beyond the Basics?” The National Interest, August 7, 2022.Brandon Valeriano, “War Is Still War: Don’t Listen to the Cult of Cyber,” The National Interest, May 30, 2022.Erica D. Lonergan, Shawn D. Lonergan, Brandon Valeriano, and Benjamin Jensen, “Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine Didn’t Rely on Cyberwarfare. Here’s Why.” The Washington Post, March 7, 2022.Brandon Valeriano and Benjamin Jensen, “The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint,” Cato Policy Analysis No. 862, January 15, 2019. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Award winning journalist Peter Beinart discusses the messy U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan one year later and questions the wisdom of entering the war in the first place. He conjectures about why U.S. foreign policy does not seem to evolve much or reflect popular opinion as much as domestic policy.Show Notes:Peter Beinart bioPeter Beinart, “Lessons from Afghanistan a Year Later,” The Beinart Newsletter, August 15, 2022.Stephen van Evera, “Why States Believe Foolish Ideas: Non-Self-Evaluation by States and Societies,” in Perspectives in Structural Realism, edited by Andrew K. Hanami (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002): pp. 163-198. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Defense Priorities fellow Bonnie Kristian discusses the Beijing’s reaction to Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the risks of escalation in America’s Ukraine policy, continued U.S. presence in the Middle East, the overuse of national emergency declarations, and unchecked executive war powers.Show Notes: Bonnie Kristian bioBonnie Kristian, “Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan Might Be Good for Her Legacy, but It’s Bad for Everyone Else,” Reason, August 2, 2022.Bonnie Kristian, “Don’t Let Russia’s Regime Change Plans Draw the U.S. Into War,” Reason, July 28, 2022. Bonnie Kristian, “Not Everything is a National Emergency,” Reason, July 19, 2022. Bonnie Kristian, “The Biden Administration is Taking Steps to Stay in Iraq Forever,” Defense One, February 22, 2021. Bonnie Kristian, “Trump’s Dangerous Expansion of Executive War Powers,” Politico, April 3, 2017.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Author Robert Wright discusses the post-Cold War history of US policies, particularly in Europe, that increased the likelihood of today's ongoing war in Ukraine and the psychological factors influencing the climate of discourse in a time of war.  Show NotesRobert Wright bioRobert Wright, “Anti-War Think Tank Attacked,” Nonzero Newsletter, July 11, 2022.Robert Wright, “Earthling: Was Obama Right About Russia-Ukraine?” Nonzero Newsletter, July 15, 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Despite campaign promises to re-enter the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, also known as the JCPOA, President Joe Biden has yet to show the political will required to make progress. Quincy Institute co-founder and executive vice president Trita Parsi discusses why the Biden administration has been slow to act and what the consequences will be.Show NotesTrita Parsi bio“On Iran, the Biden Presidency Has Been Trump’s Second Term: An Interview with Trita Parsi,” interviewed by Branko Marcetic, Jacobin, June 29, 2022.Trita Parsi, “In the Middle East, Biden Walks in Trump’s Footsteps and Will Repeat His Failure,” MSNBC.com, June 18, 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jeremy Shapiro, research director at the European Council on Foreign Relations, discusses the current state of transatlantic relations, how they shifted during the Trump administration, the need for European defense autonomy, the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine, and why US foreign policy has a prioritization problem.Show NotesJeremy Shapiro bioJeremy Shapiro, “Does America Need a Foreign Policy?” in New Voices in Grand Strategy, Michael J. Zak Lecture Series (Washington, DC: Center for New American Security, 2019).Majda Ruje and Jeremy Shapiro, “The Exaggerated Death of European Sovereignty,” European Council on Foreign Relations, April 27, 2022.Majda Ruge and Jeremy Shapiro, “Don’t Mention the War in Ukraine: Germany’s Deteriorating Image in Washington,” European Council on Foreign Relations, February 15, 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lyle Goldstein, Director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities and visiting professor at Brown University, discusses strategies toward Russia and China in this so-called era of great power competition, with a focus on the territorial disputes each rival has with its neighbors. Lyle Goldstein bioLyle Goldstein, “Raising the Minimum: Explaining China’s Nuclear Buildup,” Defense Priorities, April 22, 2022.Lyle Goldstein, “Russia’s Progress In Donbas Means Ukraine Likely Won’t Win The War,” 1945, May 10, 2022.  Lyle Goldstein, “Joe Biden’s Taiwan Declaration is a Mistake,” Unheard, May 24, 2022.    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Georgia Tech associate professor Jon R. Lindsay discusses the role and ethics of AI in war, the risks and dangers in developing military and national security applications, and how AI applications will alter the nature of international conflict.  Notes:Jon R. Lindsay bioJon R. Lindsay, Information Technology and Military Power (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2020).Avi Goldfarb and Jon R. Lindsay, “Prediction and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Increases the Importance of Humans in War,” International Security 46, no. 3 (2022): pp. 7-50.Jon R. Lindsay, “Cyber Conflict vs. Cyber Command: Hidden Dangers in the American Military Solution to a Large-Scale Intelligence Problem,” Intelligence and National Security 36, no. 2 (2021): pp. 260-278. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Joshua Landis, professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oklahoma, discusses the civil war in Syria, the fragmentation of the country, the history of US interventions in the conflict, how America's strategy there works against itself, and how best to stabilize and potentially resolve what has become a protracted quagmire. NotesJoshua Landis bioSteven Simon, Joshua Landis, and Aiman Mansour, “How to Win the Influence Contest in the Middle East,” Foreign Affairs 100, no. 1 (February 3, 2021). Joshua Landis and Steven Simon, “The Pointless Cruelty of Trump’s New Syria Sanctions,” Foreign Affairs 99, no. 4 (August 17, 2020).  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Retired CIA officer Paul R. Pillar discusses the tensions between the intelligence community and policymakers, concerns over domestic abuses of the CIA and NSA, the continuing legacy of post-9/11 policy mistakes, the Russian war in Ukraine, the Biden administration's diplomacy with Iran, and how hyper-partisanship undermines national security policy. Show Notes:Paul R. Pillar bioPaul R. Pillar, “The Role of the Villain: Iran and U.S. Foreign Policy,” Political Science Quarterly 128, no. 2 (Summer 2013): pp. 211-231. Paul R. Pillar, Intelligence and U.S. Foreign Policy: Iraq, 9/11. And Misguided Reform (New York City: Columbia University Press, 2014).Paul R. Pillar, “Guantanamo Bay Remains a Moral Stain on America,” The National Interest, April 18, 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tulane University associate professor and Cato adjunct scholar Christopher Fettweis discusses political psychology on the international and domestic levels, explains how misperceptions drive conflict, and argues that "enemy images" can be subdued by greater exposure to adversaries and political opponents.  Christopher Fettweis bioChristopher J. Fettweis, Psychology of a Superpower: Security and Dominance in U.S. Foreign Policy (New York: Columbia University Press, 2018). Christopher J. Fettweis, “After Trump: Enemies, Partisans, and Recovery,” Political Science Quarterly 136, no. 4 (September 23, 2021).Christopher J. Fettweis, “After Rome: Lessons in Grand Strategy from Emperor Hadrian,” Survival 60, no. 4 (July 16, 2018): pp. 123-150. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The image of public harmony between elected officials and an entrenched national security bureaucracy collapsed in the Trump years, according to Tufts University professor Michael Glennon. Glennon discusses the massive transfer of power from the Madisonian institutions of government to a behemoth national security bureaucracy, the problems this poses for policymaking, and how our politics have become a fight over prevailing "myth systems."  Show NotesMichael Glennon bioMichael J. Glennon, “Populism, Elites, and National Security,” Humanitas 31, nos. 1 and 2 (2018): pp. 35-45. Michael J. Glennon, National Security and Double Government (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2014).Michael J. Glennon, Gene Healy, Jeremy Shapiro, and Justin Logan, “National Security and Double Government,” Cato Event, November 21, 2014. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The war in Ukraine has prompted calls for armed neutrality as a resolution to the conflict. Audrey Kurth Cronin outlines the history of neutral states and why it is a promising solution in Ukraine. Show Notes:Audrey Kurth Cronin bioAudrey Kurth Cronin, “Could Ukraine Become Neutral, Like Switzerland? Five Things to Know,” Washington Post, March 9, 2022. Patrick M. Cronin and Audrey Kurth Cronin, “The Great Realignment: Russia’s Invasion Leaves Few Sitting on the Fence,” The Hill, March 2, 2022.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Atlantic Council senior fellow Emma Ashford discusses how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has played out so far, what the broader implications for international security and the global economy will be, and what comes after the conflict for the United States, Europe, Russia, and China. Emma Ashford bioEmma Ashford, “It’s Official: The Post-Cold War Era Is Over,”New York Times, February 24, 2022.Emma Ashford and Matthew Burrows, “Reality Check #4: Focus on Interests, not on Human Rights with Russia,” Atlantic Council, March 5, 2021.Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig, “Is Belarus Putin’s Next Target?”Foreign Policy, August 14, 2020. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

MIT professor Barry Posen joined the show to discuss the crisis in Ukraine, the origins of the conflict, what diplomatic approaches are available, and how US strategy is pushing China and Russia together. Barry R. Posen bioBarry Posen, “Unleashing the Rhetorical Dogs of War,”Just Security, February 15, 2022.Barry R. Posen, “A New Transatlantic Division of Labor Could Save Billions Every Year!”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 7, 2021.Barry R. Posen,Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy(Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2014). Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Should the United States classify as much information as it does? Yale Law School professor Oona A. Hathaway explains how the U.S. government overclassifies information, why incentives generate more secrecy, the threat to democracy this system poses, and what to do about it.Oona Hathaway bioOona A. Hathaway and Scott J. Shapiro, Internationalists: How a Radical Plan to Outlaw War Remade the World (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2018). Oona A. Hathaway, “Keeping the Wrong Secrets: How Washington Misses the Real Security Threat,” Foreign Affairs 101, no. 1 (January/February 2022).Oona A. Hathaway, “Secrecy’s End,” Minnesota Law Review 106 (2021): pp. 691-800. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Richard Hanania argues that the existence of a consistent, top-down, overarching U.S. grand strategy is an illusion. Instead of a unitary actor adhering to a coherent strategy over time, the state is subject to a set of concentrated interests that have outsize influence on U.S. foreign policy. Show Notes:Richard Hanania bio Richard Hanania, Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy (New York: Routledge, 2021).Richard Hanania, “’Just Trust the Experts,’ We’re Told, We Shouldn’t,” New York Times September 20, 2021.Richard Hanania, “Ineffective, Immoral, Politically Convenient: America’s Overreliance on Economic Sanctions and What to Do about It,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 884, February 18, 2020. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Quincy Institute Senior Fellow Anatol Lieven discusses the origins of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia's strategic perspective, the mistakes of NATO enlargement, and why the Biden administration has options to defuse tensions but is not pursuing them. Post-withdrawal Afghanistan policy and strategic competition with China are also covered. Anatol Lieven bioAnatol Lieven, “Russia Is Right on the Middle East,” Foreign Policy, November 30, 2021.Anatol Lieven, “Ukrainian Neutrality: A ‘Golden Bridge’ Out of the Current Geopolitical Trap,” Responsible Statecraft, January 3, 2022. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

 What do quantum mechanics have to do with international relations? Ohio State University professor Alexander Wendt lays out a theory of the physical world based on quantum effects and explains how it might inform our approach to social science, including international politics. Show NotesAlexander Wendt bioAlexander Wendt, Quantum Mind and Social Science: Unifying Physical and Social Ontology, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2015).Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1999)Alexander Wendt, “The Mind-Body Problem and Social Science: Motivating a Quantum Social Theory,” Journal for the Theory of Social Behavior 48, (2018): pp. 188-204. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The desire for high status drives great powers’ foreign policies. Cambridge University professor Steven Ward discusses how status concerns motivate rising powers like China as well as declining powers like the United States, and how that can produce belligerent policies and exacerbate international tensions.Show NotesSteven Ward bioSteven Ward, Status and the Challenge of Rising Powers, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2017).Steven Ward, “Status from Fighting? Reassessing the Relationship Between Conflict Involvement and Diplomatic Risk,” International Interactions 46, no. 2 (February 2020).Paul Musgraves and Steven Ward, “Testing Tripwire Theory Using Survey Experiments,” APSA Preprints, 2021.    Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Despite the popular Cold War concept of mutually assured destruction (MAD), the United States and Soviet Union engaged in risky, escalatory nuclear competition despite the costs and risks. University of Cincinnati associate professor and Cato adjunct scholar Brendan Rittenhouse Green discusses what drove this competition and explains the role of nuclear arms today, with a focus on the future of U.S.-China nuclear relations.Show NotesBrendan Green bioBrendan Rittenhouse Green, The Revolution that Failed: Nuclear Competition, Arms Control, and the Cold War, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2020).Brendan Rittenhouse Green and Austin Long, “The MAD Who Wasn’t There: Soviet Reactions to the Late Cold War Nuclear Balance,” Security Studies 26, no. 4 (July 7, 2017): pp. 606-641. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Marquette University Associate Professor Risa Brooks discusses civil-military relations in the United States, the role of military leaders and institutions in the making of foreign policy, and what reforms are needed to re-exert civilian primacy over the armed forces. Brooks touches upon concerning episodes, from Obama's Afghanistan surge to Trump's explicit politicization of the military, to suggest the proper norms around civil-military relations have eroded in recent years.Show NotesRisa Brooks bioRisa Brooks, James Golby, and Heidi Urben, “Crisis of Command: America’s Broken Civil-Military Relationship Imperils National Security,” Foreign Affairs 100, no. 3, (May/June 2021).Lionel Beehner, Risa Brooks, and Daniel Marer, Reconsidering American Civil-Military Relations: The Military, Society, Politics, and Modern War (Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2020).Risa Brooks, “Paradoxes of Professionalism: Rethinking Civil-Military Relations in the United States,” International Security 44, no. 4 (Spring 2020): 7-44. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The U.S. military budget is larger than those of the next 11 highest spenders combined. William Hartung, Director of the Arms & Security Program at the Center for International Policy discusses what cuts would make military spending more efficient. William D. Hartung bio William D. Hartung, “Profits of War: Corporate Beneficiaries of the Post-9/11 Pentagon Spending Surge,” Watson Institute of Public and International Affairs, September 13, 2021. William D. Hartung, “Profiteers of Armageddon: Explaining the Money Behind the Pentagon’s Nuclear Weapon Build Up,” Inkstick Media, October 12, 2021. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Access to oil is so vital that powerful countries can take extraordinary measures to protect themselves from ever being vulnerable to oil coercion. Rosemary A. Kelanic, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Notre Dame University, discusses the recent history of great powers’ quest for oil security and what kind of future military postures the United States and China may take toward the Persian Gulf. Rosemary A. Kelanic bioRosemary A. Kelanic, Black Gold and Blackmail: Oil and Great Power Politics, (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2020).Rosemary A. Kelanic, “Why Iran’s ‘Oil Weapon’ Isn’t That Scary,” The Washington Post, June 18, 2019. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

President Joe Biden claimed he would defend human rights around the world, but his track record paints a different picture, especially in the Middle East. Quincy Institute senior fellow Annelle Sheline discusses how U.S. policies in the region have protected oppressive leaders while undermining American interests.Show NotesAnnelle Sheline bioAnnelle Sheline, “House Passes Measure Ending U.S. Support for Saudi War in Yemen,” Responsible Statecraft, September 23, 2021Annelle Sheline and Steven Simon, “Reset Overdue: Remaking U.S.-Saudi Relations,” Quincy Brief no. 6, October 2020 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.