Poll Hub

Rack ‘em up! The Marist Poll and battleground state polling partner NBC News have completed a dozen state polls since the beginning of the summer. On tap this week – Missouri, Indiana, and Tennessee.On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the team takes a close look at the dynamics driving the contests. High on the list is Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill’s re-election bid. According to the NBC News/Marist Poll, only four points separate McCaskill from her Republican challenger Josh Hawley. And it could come down to how well the candidates are defined in the state.In Indiana, independent voters are profoundly impacting the electoral landscape. How is this playing out in the U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly and Republican Mike Braun? We have the answer.Plus, Republican Marsha Blackburn and Democrat Phil Bredesen are in a dead heat in the Tennessee Senate race. What is going on in this traditionally red state?About Poll HubPoll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll), and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

That’s a wrap! The Poll Hub team breaks down Tuesday’s midterm election primaries in Arizona and Florida. Was Martha McSally’s win in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Arizona really a slam dunk? And surprise! Andrew Gillum won the Democratic primary for Florida governor. What happened?Plus the Poll Hub team shares their personal memories of the late Arizona Senator John McCain.Are the polls ready for the 2018 general election season? What poll consumers need to watch as we approach Election Day.About Poll HubPoll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll), and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

Illinois, Texas and Pennsylvania are the latest trio in our midterm election battleground state polls with NBC News. In this episode of Poll Hub we break down the numbers and assess the relevance of these states as we head into the thick of the election season. Pennsylvania shocked the nation in the 2016 presidential election. So it’s no surprise that pollsters would turn to the Keystone State in 2018. But why survey the traditionally Republican state of Texas and the traditionally Democratic state of Illinois? We explain. Plus how education, gender, and enthusiasm factor into the midterm election battle. And summer’s days are numbered. A look at the past summer jobs of the Poll Hub crew. How did these jobs impact the team’s future career paths? Trust us. This is a must listen! About Poll Hub Poll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll), and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

In this week’s episode of Poll Hub, a look at the midterm primary results in Minnesota and Wisconsin. How did the polls help inform in the days and weeks leading up to these primaries? Why does timing matter? We have the answers. Plus, he’s baaack! Harry Enten, Senior Writer and Analyst for CNN Politics, returns to the Poll Hub table. Enten recently asked the Marist Poll to survey President Donald Trump’s job performance on a scale from excellent to poor. Enten explains why that question wording allows for a deeper dive into the president’s job approval rating especially in comparison to past presidents, and what those opinions could mean for this year’s midterm elections. And, Rasmussen Reports recently announced its Citizen-Sourced National Midterm Election Polling Project. Is it a good idea to ask the public to pay for polls? The Poll Hub team breaks it down. About Poll Hub Poll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll), and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) joins this week’s episode of Poll Hub. In this critical midterm election cycle for Democrats Senator Schumer assesses his party’s chances of reclaiming Congress, shares why he thinks the battle for the House and the Senate is close, and discusses what the Democrats are doing to prevent Russian interference in this year’s elections. And President Donald Trump’s appointment of Brett Kavanugh to the United States Supreme Court… Senator Schumer offers his views on what Democrats need to do to block Kavanugh’s confirmation and why health care is the dominant issue across the country. Plus many during the early days of President Donald Trump’s administration opined that Senator Schumer and the president could work together. What happened? Senator Schumer weighs in on why two guys from New York just couldn’t make it work in Washington, D.C. The Poll Hub team also breaks down Tuesday night’s midterm primary elections. Why it was a good night for the polls, the trends behind the numbers, and the role turnout played in Michigan… That’s on tap in this episode of Poll Hub. About Poll Hub Poll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll), and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

Following the release of The Marist Poll’s latest midterm battleground state polls with NBC News covering Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota, social media comments questioned the Poll’s methodology and accuracy. In this week’s episode of Poll Hub, we address some of our critics’ comments and answer their questions. The topics on the table include weighting by education, balancing to party identification, and interview mode. About Poll Hub Poll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll), and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

The Marist Poll has just released comprehensive data both nationally and in the upper Midwest. In this edition of Poll Hub, the team provides a detailed analysis of the electoral climate. In the latest NBC News/Marist Poll numbers of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is upside down. Trump surprised pundits when he narrowly carried Michigan in 2016. With an open seat governor’s race on the line, Senator Debbie Stabenow up for her fourth term, and multiple initiatives on the ballot, there are signs Michigan could revert to blue. The team picks up the analysis including a discussion of the key demographic groups on which to focus this midterm season. In Minnesota, Hillary Clinton narrowly defeated then candidate Trump. This electoral cycle, Minnesota Republicans face an uphill climb. Though Tim Pawlenty is well-positioned to win the Republican nomination in his quest to re-claim the governorship, he trails his potential Democratic-Farmer-Labor opponents in hypothetical general election contests. The Poll Hub team assesses the contest plus looks at Tina Smith’s chances to win the U.S. Senate seat she inherited from former Senator Al Franken. Which groups drive the narrative in Minnesota? We’ve got that answer. In Wisconsin, where the Tea Party helped propel Governor Scott Walker to victory in 2010, Walker now faces possible defeat in his current re-election bid. Plus, many say Walker does not deserve to be re-elected. What’s going on? Plus, a look at whether or not Paul Ryan’s constituents approve of President Trump’s job performance in this episode of Poll Hub. Then, a look into the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll national survey findings. In a survey conducted completely after President Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the poll uncovers Americans’ attitudes about the United States’ relationship with Russia, the legality and ethics of President Trump’s interactions with the nation, and whether or not Americans want President Trump to be tougher in his dealings with Russia. Like the upper Midwest, President Trump’s approval rating nationally is upside down, but Republicans stay committed to him. The president’s silver lining is the economy. What does this all mean in the context of the midterm elections? We answer that question plus explain the emerging role of women, Democrats, and voters under 30. A busy day for Poll Hub. About Poll Hub Poll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll), and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

Following the Trump/Putin Summit and the President's European allies trip, there has been bipartisan outrage over Trump's friendliness towards Russia. Some have called the President's performance traitorous, disgusting, worrisome - but there's no evidence that Congress, led by Republicans, will actually do anything. And that's probably smart politics on their part. And why did 538.com's Nate Silver describe the Axios story on their own Survey Monkey poll of battleground state Senate races in 2018 this way? The Axios treatment of this poll is basically "How to repeat all the errors the media made when covering polls in 2016, in one chart". We've got a pretty good idea. Then our Director of Data Management and Technology, Stephanie Calvano, helps us understand how pollsters get their samples - and how that can dramatically impact the quality of polls. About Poll Hub Poll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hubis produced by The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America's leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll), and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

President Donald Trump nominated Judge Brett Kavanaugh this week to succeed Justice Anthony Kennedy on the United States Supreme Court. In this episode of Poll Hub, the team enlists the expertise of Marist College President and legal expert David Yellen. Prior to his arrival at Marist College, President Yellen served as Dean and Professor of Law at Loyola University Chicago School of Law for 11 years and was a member of the faculty and served as Dean at Hofstra Law School. President Yellen provides perspective on the Kavanaugh nomination, its implications for the Court, and the hot-button issues on which the Court has ruled. He also offers insight into what we can expect from the confirmation process and comments on the suggestion that Supreme Court justices serve limited terms. As always, Poll Hub digs into the numbers and provides context to the Kavanaugh nomination. What do Americans think of the Supreme Court? Poll Hub has the answer.

Poll Hub celebrates its fiftieth episode! On this special episode, the Poll Hub team clears up a bit of confusion. Dr. Lee M. Miringoff found himself amid a Twitterstorm last week about comments he made during a recent interview on the Hill.tv’s, What America’s Thinking. Find out just what Dr. Miringoff did and did not say in reference to the analysis of 2016. Then, a look at Americans’ views about the media. Last week’s mass shooting at the Capital Gazette in Annapolis, Maryland brought renewed attention to President Donald Trump’s critical statements about the press. Do Americans agree? We break down the poll numbers. And, the role of excitement and demography in the outcome of the Democratic primary in New York’s 14th congressional district. Yep, we are still talking about Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s upset victory! About Poll Hub Poll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll), and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

The Marist Poll and NBC News are at it, again – polling hotly contested midterm election contests. On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the team breaks down the meaning behind the numbers. Which demographic groups are emerging as influential? Are notable proportions of voters persuadable? How do opinions of President Donald Trump fit into the electoral landscape? Plus, it’s up to you New York! We discuss the results of some of the most watched congressional primary races in New York State. And, we get wonky. How can respondents tell if they are taking a “push poll?” The Poll Hub team explains.

During the spring semester at Marist College, The Marist Poll and the Poll Hub team welcomed four distinguished guests to campus as part of a special four-part series commemorating fifty years since 1968. 1968: The Year that Rocked American Politics focused on the tumultuous and tragic events of that pivotal year and its lasting impact on today’s political system. Each guest – E.J. Dionne, Jr. (syndicated columnist at The Washington Post and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution), Bob Herbert (journalist and writer and producer of the documentary, Against All Odds), Lynn Novick (co-producer and co-director with Ken Burns of the 10-part, 18-hour epic documentary, The Vietnam War), and Jeff Greenfield (author, journalist, and former aide to Robert F. Kennedy) -- brought their own unique perspective and expertise to the series. Their individual appearances can be heard in previous podcasts. In this week’s episode of Poll Hub, we share a roundup of our recordings with these four guests and feature previously unreleased audio from each of their appearances. 1968: The Year that Rocked American Politics was presented in conjunction with the class of the same name taught by Dr. Lee M. Miringoff.

Perhaps, the great Yogi Berra said it best -- It’s deja vu all over again!The lack of distinction between public opinion polls and forecasters in 2016 created a false aura of inevitability around Hillary Clinton. Two years later, pollsters witness emerging, untested polling methods that run the risk of muddying the electoral narrative, once again. Are these polling techniques good or bad science? What do pollsters and analysts need to do to better communicate the meaning behind the numbers to the public? The Poll Hub team weighs in with special guest Harry Enten, Senior Writer & Analyst for CNN Politics.Then, The Marist Poll discusses a term to better explain what the electoral landscape looks like in some of 2018’s most competitive races. Find out who the persuadables are in this week’s Poll Hub.Plus, President Donald Trump is highly popular, at least among Republicans. What does that mean in 2018?

In this episode of Poll Hub, Pallavi Gogoi, NPR’s Chief Business Editor, joins the table to discuss the latest NPR/Marist Poll results. The just-released survey focuses on Americans’ shopping habits and the prevalence of online purchases. As the group reveals, Amazon leads the pack when it comes to online merchants, and shoppers place a great deal of trust in this online retailer.But first, Harry Enten, Senior Writer & Analyst for CNN Politics, shares the latest developments in the 2018 midterm elections. While Enten notes that talk of a “wave” is premature, certain themes are emerging. Enten discusses the role of women in the Democratic primary as well as what should and should not be included in a likely voter model.

Roseanne Barr’s racially charged tweet this week brought race relations back into the headlines. In this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the team takes a look at how attitudes about race differ from generation to generation and how those views have evolved over time. Then, the Associated Press revised the AP Stylebook to include a chapter on polls. The Poll Hub crew speaks with Emily Swanson, Polling Editor at the Associated Press, about the decision to make the change and the key recommendations on polls and polling the AP now provides to journalists.

With five months to go until the congressional midterm elections, debate exists about whether or not the Democrats will create a blue wave. In this week’s Poll Hub, a look at the perceived schism within the Democratic Party. Are progressive candidates better positioned than moderate candidates to take on Republicans in the fall? Is there an enthusiasm gap? Is primary turnout an indicator of what’s to come in November? And, why might both parties lack a consistent message during the general election cycle? The Poll Hub crew addresses those questions and more. Then, yet another school shooting rocked the nation on Friday. According to the Pew Research Center, a majority of American teenagers are now concerned that a shooting will occur at their school. The Poll Hub team takes a look at the statistics and addresses why this school shooting differs from those in the past. And, what’s the future of polling? The Marist Poll’s very own Director of Research and Data Analysis, Mike Conte, joins the round table. He has a report from the 73rd annual conference of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR).

The 73rd annual conference of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) is underway in Denver, Colorado. In this episode of Poll Hub, special guest Randy Brown joined us from the conference to discuss the focus of his latest research. Brown, Vice President of Edison Research, explained how Edison’s measurement of Americans’ audio consumption yielded the conclusion that non-probability panels should not be the only method used when measuring online behavior. And, talk about creating buzz! How one Democratic candidate in the NY-19 race used a poll to gain attention. Was the tactic credible or incredibly misleading? The Poll Hub team breaks it down. Plus, what’s on pollsters’ minds going into the mid-term elections. Our experts share what they think the critical issues surrounding polling will be. Plus, bet on it! The U.S. Supreme Court opened the doors for states to permit betting on the outcome of sports events. Do Americans think that’s a good idea? Poll Hub has the numbers. About Poll Hub Poll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll), and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

President Donald Trump recently cited a Reuters/Ipsos Poll to show his approval rating among African Americans is on the rise. But, even the organization behind the poll said, not so fast. In this episode, the Poll Hub team breaks down the controversy, analyzes the survey, and explains why the president’s argument was flawed. Also on the docket – the increased use of robocalls. Why these annoying solicitations and scams have a profound effect on the polling industry and where the field of survey research goes from here, on this week’s episode. Plus, the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) has released a guide for journalists to understand polls. The Poll Hub crew addresses why this is critical, especially in an election year.

In this episode of Poll Hub, what factors into pollsters decisions to poll? Why do some electoral contests have few public opinion polls? The team at Poll Hub breaks it down. Then, from the mailroom, the crew answers some of the most frequently asked questions about polls. From push polls to how participants are chosen, Poll Hub clears up the confusion and the misconceptions. And, Poll Hub celebrates a very special day at The Marist Poll with an annual tradition. The team shares the results of its yearly poll about age. Do Americans think Dr. Lee M. Miringoff is old now that he’s 67? Find out in this episode of Poll Hub.

Poll Hub and The Marist College Poll are pleased to present a special four-part panel series, 1968: The Year That Rocked American Politics. In this fourth and final installment of the series, the Poll Hub team welcomes author, journalist, and former aide to Senator Robert F. Kennedy, Jeff Greenfield. Through his unique lens as a staffer on Kennedy’s 1968 presidential campaign, Greenfield offers his observations on the shifting political terrain in 1968, the loss of hope of the 1960s, Kennedy’s decision to enter the presidential contest, the catastrophic events of the year that forever altered the course of American history, and the complicated relationship between Robert Kennedy and the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. About Poll Hub Poll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll), and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

Poll Hub and The Marist College Poll are pleased to present a special four-part panel series, 1968: The Year That Rocked American Politics. In this third installment of the series, the Poll Hub team welcomes Emmy and Peabody Award winning filmmaker Lynn Novick. Novick, who is the co-producer and co-director with Ken Burns of the 10-part, 18-hour epic documentary, “The Vietnam War,” discusses the significance of 1968 in the conflict, the idea that there is not just one truth to the war, and how her experience working on this groundbreaking documentary influenced her view of the Vietnam War. The entire event was streamed live on Facebook as will our future conversation with author and political analyst, Jeff Greenfield. You can watch on our Facebook Page and if you follow us there, you’ll be notified when our next session goes live.

White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said this week that President Donald Trump believes he has the “power” to fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller. But, do Americans think Mueller should be fired? In this edition of Poll Hub, the team discusses the latest poll numbers about the Mueller investigation and whether or not there has been a change in public opinion. Then, New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo faces a Democratic challenger in his bid for re-election. Does actress and education activist Cynthia Nixon pose a formidable threat to Cuomo in the primary? What has changed for Cuomo in the last four years, and what could this challenge mean for Cuomo should he run for president in 2020? Poll Hub breaks down brand new NBC 4 New York/Marist Poll numbers.

Poll Hub and The Marist College Poll are pleased to present a special four-part panel series, 1968: The Year That Rocked American Politics. In this second installment of the series, the Poll Hub team welcomed journalist, filmmaker, and Distinguished Senior Fellow at Demos, Bob Herbert. Herbert, writer and producer of the documentary Against All Odds: The Fight for a Black Middle Class, discusses 1968 as a pivotal year in the Civil Rights Movement, addresses where the quest for equality stands today, and reflects on his personal experiences during this tumultuous period. The entire event was streamed live on Facebook as will future conversations with Lynn Novick, co-director and co-producer of the film The Vietnam War, and author and political analyst, Jeff Greenfield. You can watch on our Facebook Page and if you follow us there, you’ll be notified when our next session goes live.

With the deadline to file the questionnaire for the 2020 U.S. Census imminent, the Department of Commerce’s decision to include a question about citizenship is drawing ire. In this episode of Poll Hub, the team gets at the heart of the controversy, discusses the stakes for including the question, and clears up the confusion about the history of the U.S. Census. Then, it’s opening day for Major League Baseball. Poll Hub shares the latest Marist Poll numbers about baseball fans and a proposed rule change which would begin extra innings with a man on second base. Plus, a report from on the ground at spring training from special correspondent John Sparks. Let’s play ball!

This spring Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, is bringing four distinguished guests to the Marist College campus in Poughkeepsie, New York for public conversations about 1968. We’ll talk about the war, civil rights, political upheaval and other issues that framed 1968 and how it relates to our current political climate. Our first guest was E.J. Dionne who is a syndicated columnist at The Washington Post and a Senior Fellow at The Brookings Institution. E.J. has been an insightful voice into cultural and political issues over the past several decades and is the author of numerous books including his most recent, “One Nation After Trump” written with Norman Ornstein and Thomas Mann. Our discussion took place in the Hancock Center here at Marist in front of an audience that included students, alumni, faculty and staff. This is a portion of the conversation. The entire event was streamed live on Facebook as will future conversations with Bob Herbert, Lynn Novick and Jeff Greenfield. You can watch at our Facebook Page and if you follow us there, you’ll be notified when our next session goes live.

Tomorrow marks one month since the horrific school shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida. To remember those lost and to protest gun violence, students across the country are expected to walk out of their classrooms for 17 minutes. In this episode of Poll Hub, the team uses the latest Marist Poll data to contextualize the scheduled protest. Do Americans think students who participate in the walkout should be punished by their schools? Do residents believe the Parkland students who are speaking out against gun violence will have an impact on the debate over guns, and are Americans more likely to support companies that dissociate themselves from the National Rifle Association?

The latest Marist Poll has President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 42%, his highest approval rating since taking office. In this week’s edition of Poll Hub, the crew provides an in-depth look at the factors driving the president’s improved standing and responds to the critiques of the poll’s methodology. Plus, Americans have spoken on the question of taxing steel and aluminum imports. Where do they stand? Poll Hub shares the latest findings. Then, CNN’s Harry Enten argues that President Trump may be unpopular, but his support is actually on the rise. Why there is a small flaw in our dear friend’s logic.

A recent Washington Post analysis by Philip Bump asserts Democrats are more likely to say they approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance when they respond to a poll conducted online or via IVR than by telephone. In turn, Bump argues, the president’s job approval rating is higher in polls conducted online rather by phone. In this episode, the Poll Hub team debunks Bump’s analysis through an in-depth discussion of social desirability, mode effects, and a study from the Pew Research Center and explains why omitting house effects from the analysis of survey research is dangerous.

The latest mass school shooting – the killing of 17 people at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida on February 14, 2018 – has renewed an age-old American debate about guns. Does the Second Amendment (2A) protect the right of any American to own any gun under any circumstance? Should we ban assault weapons like the AR-15 used in Parkland? Should background checks and age limits be reassessed?

It is a common pollster criticism during election seasons – oversampling either Democrats or Republicans. In this episode of Poll Hub, the team explains why modeling to party is an incorrect assumption, what party identification does and does not mean, and whether the two party system is in jeopardy. And, U.S. intelligence agencies say Russia has already taken steps to interfere in this year’s midterm elections. But, according to the latest Marist Poll, a majority of Americans do not think Russia will play a role in the elections. What accounts for the disconnect? Poll Hub takes a look.

Unlike his predecessors, President Donald Trump has tied his job performance to that of the stock market. With the Dow Jones plummeting at the beginning of the week, what does this mean for the president? Do Americans attribute the market’s ups and downs to him? Poll Hub breaks it down. And, it’s time for the U.S. Census. Every ten years, there is debate about the questions to be included, and this year, that disagreement focuses on citizenship and race. What’s at stake? Why should we care? Spoiler alert: money is involved. Poll Hub explains.

The contents of the so-called “Nunes memo” are expected to be released as early as today. The memo has created a firestorm that, to some, signals a constitutional crisis nearing the level of Watergate. In this episode, Jay DeDapper speaks with Benjamin Wittes -- Editor in Chief of Lawfare, Senior Fellow in Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution, and author -- about the risks of releasing this sensitive information and what it means for the oversight Congress has over the intelligence community. Also, this week – President Donald Trump’s first State of the Union Address. The Poll Hub team discusses the post State of the Union “bounce” and what the polls taken immediately after the speech mean (and don’t mean) for the president. And, the NFL’s biggest day of the year is Sunday! Do Americans want the Philadelphia Eagles or the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl? The results of the latest Marist Poll. About Poll Hub Poll Hub goes behind the science to explain how polling works, what polls really show, and what the numbers really mean. Poll Hub is produced by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, home of America’s leading independent college public opinion poll, The Marist Poll. Lee Miringoff (Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion), Barbara Carvalho (Director of The Marist Poll) and Jay DeDapper (Director of Innovation at The Marist Poll) dig deep to give you a look at the inner workings of polls and what they tell us about our world, our country, and ourselves.

The American workforce is undergoing a profound change. According to the latest NPR/Marist Poll of the future of work, one in five American workers are contract workers. Who are they, and what kind of an impact do they have on the labor force? Poll Hub has the answers. And, the language of polls… Survey questions are a sign of the times. In this segment, the Poll Hub team looks back on questions dating back more than half a century and discusses how their phrasing has evolved over time. On the table are questions about race relations, interracial marriage, and a woman’s place in the workplace.

Tomorrow marks one year since President Donald Trump took the oath of office. So, how’s the president doing? Despite a year marked by a job approval rating hovering in the thirties and a majority of Americans rating Trump’s presidency as a “failure,” there are some bright spots for the president. What are they, and what impact could President Trump’s job approval rating have on the 2018 midterm elections? The Poll Hub team digs into the results of the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll. And, what is “sugging” and “frugging”? What people need to know about these techniques used to raise money under the guise of survey research.

Oprah Winfrey’s speech at the Golden Globes sparked renewed enthusiasm about a potential presidential candidacy by the journalist, talk show host, and actress. This week, Poll Hub takes an in-depth look at what the polls show about a possible Oprah run against President Donald Trump in 2020. They also dig into how the concept of an “outsider” candidate has evolved in politics. And, it has been fifty years since the Supreme Court legalized interracial marriage in the case, Loving vs. Virginia. According to the Pew Research Center, three percent of all married couples in 1967 were interracial. In 2017, 17% of all newlywed couples were interracial. Using this data as a springboard, the Poll Hub team looks at how Americans’ attitudes toward marriage have changed over the past five decades and how the groundbreaking Loving case paved the way for greater acceptance of other societal changes.

In this episode of Poll Hub, the brain trust of The Marist Poll shares its poll watcher’s checklist for the 2018 midterm elections for United States Congress. What can pollsters and media pundits do to prevent the public from being pointed in the wrong direction? Stay tuned. And, according to the Pew Research Center, more and more people are getting their news from social media. The Poll Hub team picks up the topics of what role President Donald Trump plays in this trend, how social media impacts people’s understanding of the polls, and whether social media is the next step in the technology of public opinion research.

Using a compilation of polls from 2017, a recent Washington Post article asserts that, historically, Americans’ outlook about the direction of the country is impacted by whether or not the economy is doing well. And if it is, that credit tends to go to the President of the United States. But, if 2017 is the barometer, that correlation no longer holds true. In this episode of Poll Hub, the crew picks up on the thesis of the article, analyzes the polls discussed, and weighs in on why Americans have a pessimistic view about the direction of the country given that the economy is thriving.

With the passage of the tax reform bill, the Republicans in Congress hope to start off the New Year with a sense that the GOP-controlled Congress can have legislative success. But, with so many questions about tax reform left unanswered, is this really a win for Republicans? As the Poll Hub team discusses, the danger for the Republicans is how tax reform unfolds in 2018 and whether the GOP can maintain its credibility given the expected impact of the legislation on the deficit. Will the Democrats or Republicans win the “messaging war” as they head into the 2018 midterm elections? And, how could the passage of the tax reform bill impact perceptions of President Donald Trump? Find out in this episode of Poll Hub.

The special election for U.S. Senate in Alabama has been a near-perfect encapsulation of problems with political polls. Some have used proven scientific methods, others have not. Some have been transparent with their data and methodology, others…not so much. And then there are the poll averages. The widely reported Real Clear Politics’ last poll average prior to Election Day had Republican Roy Moore up by 2.2% over Democrat Doug Jones. The final results will likely have Jones winning by roughly 1.5%. Is this a polling problem or a reporting problem? We talk this over with Amy Walter, National Editor of the Cook Political Report and then discuss the implications of the Alabama results on the 2018 midterm elections. Will President Donald Trump’s enduring unpopularity catch up with Republicans in Congress? Can Democrats take advantage of the current climate? Will Trump change course?

With trust in the U.S. electoral system waning and indications of Russian involvement in the 2016 presidential election looming, could public opinion polls assume a new role in American democracy? In the 1930’s George Gallup envisioned the majority viewpoint as having a place in the dialogue of democracy. Eight decades later, polls are judged by their accuracy in predicting the elections. But, what if interference occurs in the electoral process? Could public opinion polls be used, as in emerging democracies, to validate election outcomes? Poll Hub picks up that question.

In a candid and enlightening interview with Ron Brownstein, CNN senior political analyst and Atlantic Media's editorial director for strategic partnerships, Brownstein expounds upon the composition of the two main political parties in the United States and how the flux of the Democratic and Republican parties helped Donald Trump win the White House in 2016. Brownstein, who was among the first to identify the significance of white, non-educated voters in recent electoral cycles, explains what he means by the “coalition of transformation” and the “coalition of restoration.” He also takes an introspective look at how, as a journalist, his interest in poll analysis stemmed from the perceived disconnect between reality and how journalists covered politics.

Allegations of sexual misconduct against the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Alabama, Roy Moore, have rocked the special election in the state. In this reddest of red states, the polls are inconsistent, and many lack the scientific rigor that instills confidence in the polls. Can the polls be believed? How volatile is the contest, and how difficult is it to identify likely voters given the national media attention surrounding this race? Poll Hub weighs in. And according to new national poll numbers from the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has not shifted in the eleven months he has been president. While President Trump has been catering to his base, these poll numbers show he and many of his counterparts in the U.S. Congress are out of step with Americans on issues like tax cuts and health care.

President Donald Trump has certainly been in the thick of things during his first 10 months in office, but his job approval rating has changed little since he took the Oath of Office. As this episode of Poll Hub explains, President Trump maintains the support of his base and focuses on issues that interest his core group of supporters. But, a majority of Americans consider the president’s policies to mostly favor the wealthy. As the president’s policy initiatives move forward, could that impact public opinion and President Trump’s job approval rating? Poll Hub takes on the question.

The pre-election polls in Virginia were wildly inconsistent. The disparate methodologies, specifically how samples were selected, muddied the narrative of the gubernatorial contest. As the Poll Hub team explains, the traditional method of conducting live interviews using a Random Digit Dial sampling method proved the most accurate in predicting this year's governor's race in Virginia. Which polling group was the most accurate, and what are the big takeaways for the industry? Poll Hub has the answers.

In this episode of Poll Hub, the team does something they have never done before – calling out poor question wording. At issue is a question included in the October Harvard-Harris Poll which asks: Some people say that the Iran nuclear deal is not perfect and the Iranians are building up their nuclear capability secretly, but we should not rock the boat now and just let it all slide along. Others say if Iranians are not compliant we have to call them out on it and push to renegotiate the deal with real verification. What would be your preferred course of action? Confused? You are not alone. Poll Hub explains why this question is so confounding and why it should never be included in a survey.

With allegations that operatives based out of Russia purchased Facebook advertisements to interfere in the 2016 presidential election and an investigation underway by the United States Congress to assess the extent of the Russians’ interference, Facebook may have played an unexpected role in the electoral process of the United States. How did this social media platform evolve into an advertising platform, and how did it become a political tool? As the “Poll Hub” team discusses, Facebook’s technology allows audiences to be targeted on a granular level to receive a specific, tailored message. As “Poll Hub” host and tech entrepreneur Jay DeDapper explains it, the lack of regulations of these advertisements created a digital “Wild West.”

Though the Harvey Weinstein scandal has stolen the spotlight, sexual harassment in the workplace is not a new issue in American society. But, it is a persistent one. According to new Exclusive Third Rail with OZY-Marist Poll findings, 87% of Americans believe that workplace sexual harassment is a problem. Included are 42% of Americans who think it is a big problem. As the Poll Hub team discusses, that proportion has increased by more than two to one over the past thirty years.

With few major statewide elections on the ballot this year, the Virginia governor’s race is front and center, but there is little agreement among the polls about the contest. In this edition of Poll Hub, the team digs deep into the polls’ methodologies and explains the “special sauce” behind each poll. Understand how the widespread experimentation in polling is complicating survey research today and why it is critical to examine the samples and weighting factors used by public opinion polls. Plus, the Poll Hub team explains the difference between party identification and registration and why weighting by party is a recipe for disaster.

The opioid epidemic in the United States is no secret to most Americans. According to a sweeping survey by the PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll, addiction to prescription opioid painkillers such as oxycodone, is a problem that affects 54% of Americans. In fact, about one in four Americans say someone in their own family suffers from this addiction. In this episode of Poll Hub, the team examines how this crisis compares with the crack epidemic in the late 1980's, whether the United States is doing enough to stop this problem, and whether Americans think there is an end in sight.

Stories of taking a knee and other national anthem protests by NFL players to draw attention to racial inequality in the United States have saturated news headlines. But, what is the status of race relations in the nation today? This episode of Poll Hub addresses that very question with special attention given to President Donald Trump’s impact on race relations in the United States. Mr. Trump’s first nine months in office have been consumed with the topic of race, and according to Exclusive Third Rail with OZY-Marist Poll numbers, a plurality of Americans, 46%, say President Trump’s comments about people of color such as Muslims, immigrants, or African Americans make it more acceptable to make racist comments.