Optimist Economy

One in five workers in the United States was born in another country. Without them, the country’s prime-age workforce would be shrinking, and thus so would our economy. So the calumny (Terms & Conditions) directed at immigrants is at odds with the basic fact that the U.S. needs them. What about depressing wages? Economist Kathryn Edwards says that research shows such a mixed bag of results that the overall effect is about zero. Indeed, if the goal is to save “American jobs” or help American workers, there are a lot more effective ways to spend $185 billion than on a massive crackdown on immigration rules.Support us by becoming a paid Substack subscriber here, or by making a contribution at https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomyComplete show notes with links to articles and data at optimisteconomy.com.You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram

Here’s what work requirements rarely accomplish: Getting more people to work or lifting them out of poverty. They are, however, very good at driving people off public benefit programs, which was their primary role during the welfare reform of 1996. Yes, Kathryn Edwards economist/human will tell you that in theory, people will optimize how much they work and “consume leisure” according to their preferences, and that if some people get free stuff, they’ll work less and swim at the beach more. But that effect mostly gets swallowed whole by the reality of low-wage work in America.Support us by becoming a paid Substack subscriber here, or by making a contribution at https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomyComplete show notes with links to articles and data at optimisteconomy.com.You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram

The national debt is $36 trillion — a panic-inducing big number. So maybe it will help to understand how the U.S. ran up that debt. We’ve blown 37% of it on tax cuts, with precious little to show for that. But 28% went to stabilize the economy during two major crises (in ’08-’09 and during the COVID pandemic), which is when you do want the federal government to pull out its credit card. Good news is we don’t have to get the debt to zero. We just need to get pointed in that direction. And for listeners who’ve been waiting for Kathryn Edwards to discuss MMT (Modern Monetary Theory), your moment has come.✨ Support the Optimist Economy podcast at: https://optimisteconomy.substack.com/subscribe or https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy ✨Complete show notes with links to articles and data at optimisteconomy.com.You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram

The U.S. government makes student loans because our economy benefits enormously: Improved human capital. Higher earnings for taxpayers. Innovation and productivity gains. (Side note: Education has also been a $50 billion per year “export” because so many international students come here.) Meanwhile, colleges are basically getting blank checks for whatever tuition prices they pull out of the air. So there’s all this upside for the government and cash flowing to colleges, but student borrowers are left holding the bag. Kathryn Edwards thinks we can do better, and in a way that preserves what makes the American college experience great for students and the country.✨ Support the Optimist Economy podcast at: https://optimisteconomy.substack.com/subscribe or https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy ✨Complete show notes with links to articles and data at optimisteconomy.com.You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram

Kathryn Edwards answers listeners’ economic questions, with her co-host's stopwatch running. In under an hour, we cover risks to U.S. economic data, college tuition, taxes, bonds, degrowth, mortgages, tariffs vs. income taxes, wealth concentration, and why the future can’t be built on lies. Finally, for those of you not from Wisconsin, do you know how to pronounce Waukesha? Because Robin sure didn’t. And apparently it’s not Wauke$ha, either.You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram Substack Support us by becoming a paid Substack subscriber, or by making a contribution at https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy

Child care is exhibit A that not everything can be solved by private marketplaces. It is too expensive and too scarce — and as Kathryn Edwards points out, nothing will change that fact. (Maybe you’ve heard someone say that preschool costs more than state university tuition? True in 38 states.) Even among those who think that there’s a role for the government to play in early childhood care, there are still very strong disagreements about what public support should look like and who it should go to. This is a sequel of sorts to our conversation last week about U.S. birth rates last week and the demographics that might force big policy changes in the years to come.✨ Support the Optimist Economy podcast at: https://optimisteconomy.substack.com/subscribe or https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy ✨You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram

The declining birth rate in the United States is often discussed not only as a major demographic shift, but as a looming economic disaster. Ideas being pitched to the White House include a $5,000 baby bonus for new parents and (truly) giving medals to women who have a half-dozen babies. But what are the real contours of this supposed crisis? Indeed, according to economist Kathryn Edwards, if we haven’t done anything to remove the constraints on having kids, can we call it a crisis at all?✨ Support the Optimist Economy podcast at: https://optimisteconomy.substack.com/subscribe or https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy ✨You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram

What sparks progress? The right political conditions? Social pressure? Economic upheaval? In response to two listeners’ questions, Kathryn Edwards says… both none of those and all of the above. (Also, "not a historian.") Still, as an example, we talk through just one bit of the New Deal in the 1930s, which was the law to limit child labor. That movement started decades earlier, and continued decades afterward. For those keeping score at home, this a sneaky third installment of Kathryn’s 68-part series on the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938.✨ Support the Optimist Economy podcast at: https://optimisteconomy.substack.com/subscribe or https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy ✨You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram

In the category of low-hanging policy fruit, why won’t any politician pluck the ripe, juicy goodness of federally mandated paid sick leave? About 30 million American workers not only don’t get a paid day off when they have the flu, there’s no law on the books to prevent them from being fired if they call in sick. Economist Kathryn Edwards points out that research has found that the job-protection aspect alone is worth $2,000 a year to vulnerable working moms. Of course this also keeps communities healthier because who needs to be exposed to baristas with bronchitis?✨ Support the Optimist Economy podcast at: https://optimisteconomy.substack.com/subscribe or https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy ✨You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram

A recent article in the Washington Post proposed that U.S. labor data has just started to show the bite artificial intelligence is taking out of U.S. jobs – in this case, for computer programmers. Is AI going to cause mass joblessness? Silicon Valley bros seem to think so. Journalists seem to think so. So what’s with economist Kathryn Edwards' ho-hum reaction? The long view: The United States has seen lots of technological progress over time, but technology has been the most villainized since 1980—also the era of declining worker power. It’s our gutted worker protections that make periods of technological transition so painful.✨ Support the Optimist Economy podcast at: https://optimisteconomy.substack.com/subscribe or https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy ✨Read More:More than a quarter of computer-programming jobs just vanished. What happened? [The Washington Post]Majority of U.S. adults think AI will eliminate jobs over next two decades, but experts’ views are more mixed [Pew Research Center]You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram

Never heard of the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938? It’s why there’s a minimum wage, overtime pay, and 12-year-olds can’t legally have a job. It’s also due for a 21st-century update. What would these “New Work Standards” include? Let’s start with the right to request remote work, part-time schedules, or non-traditional hours. This shift would be a game-changer for folks with disabilities, parents juggling young kids, or anyone going through tough personal times. This is also a way to grow the economy by keeping people attached to the workforce. Consider this part one of – if Kathryn has her way – a 63-part series on how to update the FLSA.Read More: Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938 [U.S. Dept of Labor history page] Civil Disobedience by Henry David Thoreau [PDF] The TurboTax Trap [ProPublica] The 988 Lifeline You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram Substack Support us by becoming a paid Substack newsletter subscriber or at https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy

The United States is more than 20 years into a tax experiment – an era of a cumulative $7 trillion in tax cuts. So, asks economist Kathryn Edwards, how’s that working out? Well, we have worsening income inequality and public faith in the tax system is cratering. Meanwhile every social policy is conceptualized as some kind of tax cut/credit. The question for our optimistic future is, are you ready for tax fairness if that means you don't get that deduction?✨ Support the Optimist Economy podcast at: https://optimisteconomy.substack.com/subscribe or https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy ✨You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram

What’s with the persistent narrative of Social Security's impending doom? Are the baby boomers draining the trust fund? Are Americans living too long? No and no. There are just two of the many misunderstandings people have about what economist Kathryn Edwards will tell you (for hours if you let her) is, truly, the most popular and effective public program in U.S. history. She’s also optimistic that Congress will make necessary reforms just before the trust fund is depleted in 2035. Which is good. Because Robin does want to be able to retire.✨ Support the Optimist Economy podcast at: https://optimisteconomy.substack.com/subscribe or https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy ✨Read More: A Young Person’s Guide to Social Security Ten Years Since Hurricane Katrina | SSA You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram

Wouldn’t it be funny if we launched a podcast called “Optimist Economy” at the very moment the economy started to slide? Nice timing, us! In this bonus episode we dive into the data that has folks spooked. We also talk about if willy-nilly tariff policy (technical economic term there) is to blame, whether a recession is more like a wildfire or a hurricane, and how a recession might affect you. Also, who gets to declare, “Recession on!” Can we squeeze an ounce of optimism out of a recession episode? We try. You be the judge.Some of the stuff we talk about: GDP Now The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee Economic News Releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics WSJ: The U.S. Economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People You can also find Optimist Economy at:[email protected] YouTube Instagram

Rapidly changed government and corporate policies mean the era of DEI is coming to a screeching halt. But gross racial discrimination in the U.S. labor market persists. Just one example: The black unemployment rate is almost always double the white unemployment rate. In this episode we muddle through what can be said about DEI now at its funeral that wasn’t said during its lifespan.You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram Substack Support us by becoming a paid Substack subscriber or at https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy

Who are we and what in the world is an “optimist economy?”For our first show, we (economist Kathryn Edwards and editor Robin Rauzi) introduce ourselves, explain how we met, and lay out our goals for our new podcast.We want Optimist Economy to empower listeners to understand the economy we have, but also the one we can have so they feel good about the future. The truth is, America’s best economic era is yet to come. It has to be, because there are so many good solutions out there that U.S. policymakers have never tried.You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram Substack Support us by becoming a paid Substack subscriber or at https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy

Here at Optimist Economy, we recognize that today’s economy isn’t great for a lot of Americans. That is exactly why now’s the time to talk about how it could be so much better — whether you’re hunting for a first job or worried about the future of Social Security.Co-hosts Kathryn Edwards (a labor economist) and Robin Rauzi (an editor) decided to make Optimist Economy because everyone deserves an economy worth looking forward to. Join us here every week as we work through what that is, one problem and solution at a time.New episodes every Tuesday wherever you listen to podcasts.You can also find us on TikTok YouTube Instagram Substack Music from #UppbeatLicense code: JZHPJQCUS5BJ8LML