One Decision

This isn’t just another Middle Eastern conflict—it’s a fundamental restructuring of global power. Sir Richard Dearlove and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika with Fareed Zakaria, veteran journalist, author, and host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS. Together, they examine Israel’s war strategy, and whether or not the war aims of President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are misaligned. They also discuss the entry of the Houthis into the conflict on Iran’s behalf, as well as why the war in Iran could prove far more consequential to daily life across the globe than the Iraq War ever was. In this episode: 01:43 – Israel’s Campaign in Lebanon 08:06 – Does Israel’s “Buffer Zone” Have an Ulterior Motive? 11:29 – Do Netanyahu and Trump Have Different War Aims? 15:10 – Will America Put Boots on the Ground in Iran? 17:14 – End of a Strategic Conflict, or a Massive Gamble? 22:22 – The Houthi Strategy 28:35 – Why Russia Wins and Europe Loses 32:20 – Geopolitics in a Post-Trump World 36:28 – Can the UK Still Rely on the US? 41:47 – Why the Iran War Hurts Ukraine 46:24 – What’s Trump’s Next Move? 48:40 – Sir Richard and Baroness Hazarika Discussion Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Baroness Ayesha Hazarika (Member of House of Lords). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Everyone is calling it another Iraq. Sir Richard Dearlove disagrees. In this episode of One Decision In Brief, the former MI6 chief makes the case that what's unfolding in Iran may be something different: the final chapter of a decades-long conflict, with a window for the United States to actually close it. Sir Richard and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika break down the military logic — why Kharg Island is the likely first target, what securing the Strait of Hormuz would actually take, and whether a ground operation could stay limited. They also assess Iran's internal fractures, Russia's quiet role, China's conspicuous absence, and what the Gulf States really want from Washington right now. Is this the moment the West finally resolves the Iran question, or the beginning of something far worse? In this episode: 07:09 Uranium Extraction Scenario 09:14 Avoiding a Land Quagmire 10:58 Trump’s Legacy Calculus 11:52 Russia Helps; China Absent 13:39 Will Gulf States Choose America? Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika (House of Lords) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Cuba is running out of fuel, its economy is in ruins, and 2 million of its citizens have already fled. Is the communist regime finally at its breaking point? Sir Richard Dearlove and Kate McCann sit down with Brian Latell, PhD, a 35-year CIA veteran and the agency's top Cuba and Latin America analyst. They assess whether the government can survive Trump's fuel embargo, what a transition would actually look like, and why Marco Rubio's approach may be more measured than his rhetoric suggests. In this episode: 04:19 US-Cuba Relations 10:25 Risks of Squeezing Cuba Too Hard 13:03 Can the Regime Collapse Peacefully 18:03 Who Holds Power in Havana 23:02 Intelligence Files and Biosecurity Fears 27:31 Rebuilding Cuba and Diaspora Role 29:35 What Drives Marco Rubio 31:08 One Decision to Watch Next Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

From an ultimatum to a “pause” in attacks, did President Donald Trump just blink, or is he playing a much larger game with Iran? Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and journalist Kate McCann analyze whether President Trump’s sudden shift on Iran is a genuine diplomatic opening, a calculated move to cool soaring global oil prices, or an attempt to buy time for US Marine reinforcements to arrive. They also explore the potential strategic friction between the US and Israel, Trump’s broader foreign policy objectives, including Venezuela and Cuba, and the UK and Europe’s reluctant role in the escalating Iranian conflict. In this episode: 01:56 – From 48 Hour Ultimatum to Five-Day Pause 03:40 – The Fragility of Global Markets 05:26 – Are There Backchannel Talks Inside Iran? 07:48 – Escalating to De-Escalate 09:41– Israel-US Divergent Aims 11:36 – Does the Conflict Help or Hurt Trump? 15:14 – UK and Europe on the Sidelines Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Strait of Hormuz is in a chokehold. The scale of this oil supply disruption has already exceeded the shocks of the 1970s. Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood sit down with Helima Croft, Managing Director and Head of Global Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets and former senior CIA analyst, to break down what market players are getting wrong, why reopening the Strait is far harder than it looks, and what a Houthi entry into the conflict could mean for the Red Sea. In this episode: 3:04 Technical Side of Supply Disruption 6:11 IEA and Comparison to Russia-Ukraine 9:32 Alternative Routes for Oil and Gas 12:08 Russia is the Big Winner 13:13 Ground Troops Needed to Open the Strait of Hormuz 17:14 The US Domestic Picture 21:43 Will Houthis Disrupt the Red Sea? 27:52 What Market Participants Are Not Understanding 30:57 Is $200 Barrel Crude Oil Possible? 33:19 Sir Richard and Rosanna Discussion Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Trump’s call for naval assistance in the Strait of Hormuz has not been answered by European allies. Does this signal a growing crisis of confidence in the West? Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and international journalist Rosanna Lockwood examine the latest developments in the war with Iran, as well as rising political polarization in France and the UK, fears of domestic terrorist attacks in the West, and the critical importance of Kharg Island to the global energy market. In this episode: 01:48 – The divisive dilemma at the Strait of Hormuz 04:05 – Fears of Iranian proxy terror attacks in the West 06:14 – Political polarization in European elections 12:45 – Iran’s internal media strategy 14:47 – The strategic importance of Kharg Island Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What exactly drove President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel in joint strikes against Iran? Ronen Bergman joins from Tel Aviv where he is a Senior Correspondent for Military and Intelligence Affairs for Yedioth Ahronoth and staff writer for The New York Times Magazine. He shares his reporting of how Netanyahu moved Trump toward a joint strike, and why he's staying quiet about it for now. Then, retired Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, former Israeli Defence Forces spokesperson and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, breaks down the major Israeli military objectives and how close Israel is to achieving each one. Plus, what Arab Gulf states are privately telling Israel. In this episode: 01:24 New Leader Wounded 06:42 Israel Aims And Limits 09:36 Regime Change Doubts 16:14 Israeli Public Mood 23:30 Intel Airpower Strategy 25:12 Introducing LT. COL. (RET.) Jonathan Conricus 29:48 Strait of Hormuz Threat 32:45 Stopping Enriched Uranium 36:21 War Communications as Force Multiplier 40:55 Regime Change Scenarios 43:58 Gulf States Defense Show Notes: Iran’s New Supreme Leader Was Wounded Early in the War, Iranian and Israeli Officials Say - The New York Times Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

One of the few Americans briefed before US hit Iran sits down with Sir Richard Dearlove and Rosanna Lockwood to share his analysis: the legal justification is false, the strategic endgame doesn't exist, and we may have just handed Iran every reason to build a nuclear weapon. US Representative Jim Himes (D-CT), Ranking Member of the House Intelligence Committee, breaks down Trump's grip on Capitol Hill, and whether the only exit is a face-saving declaration of victory. Recorded March 9th, 2025. Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mojtaba Khamenei has been appointed to succeed his father as Supreme Leader of Iran. What now? Former UK Defence Secretary Sir Ben Wallace, who spent eight years as Chairman of the British–Iran Parliamentary Group, views this as a doubling down on defiance. Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and international journalist Rosanna Lockwood break down the rationale behind why the IRGC is vested in maintaining the status quo, the growing rift between the United States’s strategy and Gulf States Allies, and whether or not the United States and Israel have a viable endgame.Plus: Already at $100 per barrel, how high will the price of oil climb? What impact will the conflict in Iran have on European security and economies? Are Russia and China giving Iran an intelligence edge? In this episode: 01:10 Succession in Tehran 02:56 The IRGC as a Business Cartel 04:10 The Gulf States’ Perspective 06:55 UAE Business Backlash 10:26 Insurance and War Risk Shock 14:10 Shahi Drones and Escalation Risks 17:51 EU and UK Economic Hit 19:33 UK Politics and Social Tensions 21:38 One Decision to Watch Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief), Sir Ben Wallace (former UK Defence Secretary) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Iran's strategy isn't to defeat the US militarily. Trita Parsi argues that it's to make the cost high enough, fast enough, to collapse domestic support before Iran loses. With MAGA turning against the war, oil markets destabilizing, and both parties alarmed by talk of ground troops, Trump urgently needs a face-saving exit. Plus, Parsi believes that Iran's revolutionary system was built to withstand exactly this kind of pressure. Trita Parsi is the co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, co-founder and former president of the National Iranian American Council, and author of four books on US foreign policy in the Middle East. In this episode: 01:19 Succession After Assassination 03:13 Army vs IRGC Dynamics 10:55 Iran Strategy and US Politics 15:44 Why No Uprising 22:42 Gulf States Security Fallout 25:43 Saudi Shift After Oct 7 30:03 MAGA Backlash and Exit Ramps 33:32 Why Trump Went In 39:56 One Decision to Watch Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (International Journalist) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former National Security Advisor John Bolton doesn't mince words: the opening strikes on Iran were just the beginning. In this special bonus episode, Bolton breaks down why he believes the Iranian regime will fragment from within, what the Gulf Arab states are about to do, and how war in Iran affects Russia, Ukraine, and China. Then, retired Lt. General Mark Hertling brings the view from the ground. A veteran of multiple Iraq deployments and the former Chief of War Plans on the Joint Staff. Hertling has seen this before. He's asking the question nobody in Washington seems to want to answer: Is there actually a plan for the day after the strikes? In this episode: 01:31 John Bolton 04:32 Power Vacuum Risks 08:44 Gulf States Reaction 10:50 Iran Retaliation Strategy 15:16 Israel Influence Question 17:03 Oil Shock And Putin 19:51 China And Taiwan 23:34 Deterrence And Alliances 29:51 Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling 34:28 Decapitation and Unrest 36:24 Iraq Lessons on Disbandment 42:02 Intel Gaps and Planning 52:19 Wider Regional Fallout Show Notes: Opinion | With attack on Iran, U.S. deterrence is being restored - The Washington Post Order Mark Harling’s book: If I Don’t Return: A Father’s Wartime Journal Lt. General Mark Hertling recorded on March 2, and Amb. John Bolton recorded on March 3. Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

After weeks of buildup, the United States and Israel have attacked Iran, killing long-time leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. How will the downfall of his regime reverberate throughout the Middle East and beyond? Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and journalist Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio) dive into the questions around the decision to strike Iran, what the death of Khamenei means for Iran’s future, and whether Iranian proxies in the region like Hezbollah have the strength to aid in retaliation. Plus: Does China have a reason to step in and help Iran? Should Russian President Vladimir Putin be concerned that he’s lost an ally, or emboldened because of the United States’ split attention? What will the UK’s involvement be in supporting the US and Israel in this conflict? In this episode: 01:37 - The decision behind killing Khamenei 03:43 - Ramifications of turning Khamenei into a martyr 06:32 - Why a popular uprising in Iran is unlikely 08:50 - Starlink and the information war 10:25 - How the Ayatollah’s downfall may be the death knell for Iran’s regional proxies 12:28 - Who backs Iran now? 13:51 - Will China be a mediator? 15:48 - Putin’s lost an ally 19:18 - Consequences of Starmer’s hesitancy 22:36 - The lethal combination of Israeli HUMINT and the CIA’s advanced surveillance Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and journalist Kate McCann (Political Editor at Times Radio). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When a former CIA officer and the ex-Chief of MI6 agree something is coming — pay attention. This week, Sir Richard Dearlove, former Chief of MI6, and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika are joined by Mike Baker, a former CIA covert operations officer with nearly two decades running intelligence operations in the world's most hostile environments. Together, they give an unvarnished assessment of the three crises dominating global affairs right now: whether US military action against Iran is imminent and what it would actually target; why Putin has little incentive to end the war in Ukraine and what could change his calculus; and why Cuba, just 90 miles from Florida, may be closer to collapse than anyone is reporting. Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Baroness Ayesha Hazarika (House of Lords). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The U.S. Supreme Court just struck down President Trump's reciprocal tariffs — so what happens next? Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove and Baroness Ayesha Hazarika break down Trump's options to reimpose his tariff regime, what it means for trade negotiators worldwide, and why international leaders who flew to Washington may have wasted their time. Plus: Will US intel lead the front of the war against Mexican drug cartels? What role will the Board of Peace play on the global stage beyond Gaza? Is the United Nations still an important force in geopolitics? In this episode: What’s next for President Trump’s tariffs after the U.S. Supreme Court’s sweeping decision Knock-on effects to watch for following the killing of Mexican cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera, aka “El Mencho” The role President Trump’s Board of Peace may play in the rebuilding of Gaza The diminished relevance of the United Nations in world affairs Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Baroness Ayesha Hazarika (Member of the House of Lords). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Former Prince Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was arrested on suspicion of misconduct in public life, and not for his alleged behavior toward women. He is the first member of the British royal family to be detained since King Charles I was taken prisoner in 1647. Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove details the level of classified information Andrew may have allegedly shared for personal gain. In this special bonus episode: Why Prince Andrew was arrested for misconduct in public office The state of the UK justice system and the future of the monarchy The fallout from the Epstein files: why the UK is acting while the US remains silent Peter Mandelson’s vulnerability to similar charges Andrew’s history as “Randy Andy” and “Air Miles Andy” Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and co-host Kate McCann (Political Editor, The Times). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is 2026 China's window to “reunite” Taiwan? With Trump’s muted position on Taiwan and focus on the Western Hemisphere, China experts see a "perfect storm" of opportunity. Yun Sun, Ph.D., Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, explains why Beijing believes this may be a now-or-never moment. Dr. Sun unpacks her arguments and warnings from her recent Foreign Affairs essay. In this episode: The People's Liberation Army’s military readiness If the United States won’t intervene, would Japan or South Korea? Decoding the signals from the purge of PLA generals Xi Jinping's legacy ambitions Warning signs to watch in 2026 Show Notes: A Perfect Storm for Taiwan in 2026? | Foreign Affairs Yun Sun | Stimson Center Yun Sun | Brookings Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Rosanna Lockwood (international journalist). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's speech at the Munich Security Conference marks a seismic shift in European defense. Former MI6 Chief Sir Richard Dearlove breaks down why Germany's massive military spending increase changes everything, and why the UK might be left behind. Plus: Is the US heading toward military conflict with Iran? What is the significance of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s controversial support for Orban in Hungary? In this episode: Germany's constitutional change for unprecedented defense spending Merz's "German Gaullism" - what it means for Europe Why Starmer's Munich speech fell flat Israel strategizing with Trump administration regarding Iran Zelensky's election strategy and Ukraine's battlefield gains Show Notes: Royal Navy misses £500m of submarine maintenance | The Times Le gaullisme allemand de Merz à Munich: discours intégral | Le Grand Continent Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and Kate McCann (Political Editor at The Times). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

s the United States about to launch military strikes against Iran? Former National Security Council official Michael Allen joins One Decision to discuss escalating tensions in the Middle East, revealing why he believes President Trump will soon authorize joint US-Israeli military action against Iran. In this episode, Michael Allen analyzes: Why Iran negotiations may be doomed to fail Putin's negotiating strategy and the Donbas sticking point Europe's slow response to Trump's defense spending demands Michael Allen is a Managing Director at Beacon Global Strategies, co-host of NatSec Matters Podcast, and a former NSC official who ran intelligence strategy and counter-proliferation. Show Notes: A Second Wave of Popular Anger Is Building in Iran | WSJ The Critical Importance of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast | ISW Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host Sabrina Singh (former Pentagon Press Secretary). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The fallout from the Jeffrey Epstein files has reached the highest levels of the United Kingdom Parliament. Tensions continue to rise as Iran attempts to run out the clock on American forces. Russia–Ukraine peace talks appear to be stalling yet again. Former MI6 chief Sir Richard Dearlove and Sabrina Singh dive into the ongoing turmoil facing UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Sir Richard details calls for the PM’s resignation, as documents in the Epstein files reveal that Starmer’s former U.S. ambassador pick, Peter Mandelson, allegedly distributed classified intelligence with Epstein back in 2008. Sabrina gets into Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff’s approach to engaging with Iran. Sir Richard explains Iran’s strategy for running out the clock on the United States, and why past nuclear negotiations remain influential for both sides. Ukraine does not appear willing to surrender the Donbas region to Russia. Sir Richard and Sabrina analyze the war’s impact on the strained Russian economy. As casualties on both sides continue to mount, Russians are fleeing the country at rates not seen in decades to escape the conflict and conscription. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Denmark's Defence Committee Chair Rasmus Jarlov exposes the truth behind Trump's “framework of a future deal.” In this interview, Jarlov explains why Denmark has drawn a hard line against Trump's territorial claims. Jarlov admits that he's no longer sure if America would defend a NATO ally under attack. In this episode of One Decision, we explore: What's Trump really after in Greenland How Trump’s Greenland threats are fracturing NATO Why the "Chinese threat" in Greenland is "exaggerated to the extreme" Would Denmark block a Greenland independence referendum to stop US annexation? Europe's defense spending surge Why allies can no longer depend on America With trust between NATO allies at its lowest point in decades, Jarlov draws a hard red line: Denmark will not accept territorial demands from any country. He reveals how Trump's threats have backfired, bringing Denmark and Greenland closer together while pushing Europe away from relying on U.S. military defense. Plus: What "losing a friend" means when that friend is a global superpower. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices