The “18-Year Real Estate Cycle” Ends in 2026 (What Now?)
The 18-year real estate cycle calls for a crash in 2026. It correctly predicted the 2008 crash, it was right for decades in a row in the 1800s, and many say it’s the one true oracle for home prices. Funnily enough, it’s been 18 years since 2008, and home prices are starting to peak. But is there enough data to trust in this housing market cycle? Should you be selling your properties just shy of every 18 years to load up on low prices during the next predicted housing crash? Or, is this just a conveniently (somewhat) accurate theory that crash bros use to get maximum clicks? Today, Dave is reviewing the evidence and sharing the cases from economists on whether the 18-year cycle exists. The theory calls for a crash worse than 2008 this year, but is there any evidence to support this claim? You might be surprised, but Dave does agree with parts of this theory.
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Show Notes
The 18-year real estate cycle calls for a crash in 2026. It correctly predicted the 2008 crash, it was right for decades in a row in the 1800s, and many say it’s the one true oracle for home prices.
Funnily enough, it’s been 18 years since 2008, and home prices are starting to peak.
But is there enough data to trust in this housing market cycle? Should you be selling your properties just shy of every 18 years to load up on low prices during the next predicted housing crash? Or, is this just a conveniently (somewhat) accurate theory that crash bros use to get maximum clicks?
Today, Dave is reviewing the evidence and sharing the cases from economists on whether the 18-year cycle exists. The theory calls for a crash worse than 2008 this year, but is there any evidence to support this claim? You might be surprised, but Dave does agree with parts of this theory.
In This Episode We Cover
2026 housing crash? Why the 18-year real estate cycle says we’re at the end of an era
The “phases” of the real estate cycle explained (from bust to boom)
Did the cycle end? Why home prices may have already peaked years ago
2008 vs. 2026: What could cause a housing crash to happen this year
The (surprisingly) accurate 18-year predictions for decades in a row
And So Much More!
Links from the Show
Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise
Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets
Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter
Find an Investor-Friendly Agent in Your Area
The Four Stages Of The Real Estate Cycle
Grab the Book, "Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing"
Grab the Book, "Real Estate by the Numbers"
Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-395
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