Australian Property Market Shows Growth – August 2019 Property Update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDIomBqFDEs The Australian property market has actually grown for the first time in 15 months! Since way back in March of 2018. Let's take a deep dive into the data and why this is happening in this August property market update. Suburb Research Course Book a Free Property Strategy Session Core Logic August Market Update Video 0:00 - Introduction0:35 - This trend has been coming since December 20181:04 - This is led by the major capital cities growing1:42 - Why is this happening?2:47 - Monthly sales seems to be finding it's floor3:44 - Sydney market update5:46 - Melbourne market update7:39 - Brisbane market update10:05 - Adelaide market update10:55 - Perth market update12:44 - Hobart market update14:00 - Darwin market update15:27 - Canberra market update16:00 - Will this growth be sustainable?17:33 - Things holding us back from a massive boom Recommended Videos: Is Brisbane Cheaper Now Than It Was 10 Years Ago? Why I Wouldn't Just Chase Capital Growth In The Current Market July 2019 Australian Property Market Update Transcription: Ryan 0:00the australian property market has actually grown for the first time in 15 months since way back in march of 2018 so in today's monthly update we're going to look at these figures talk about why the market is growing and try and look at the data and see if we can see any trends about what's going to happen in the future hey i'm ryan from onproperty helping you achieve financial freedom and every month we sit down and we look at the australian property data see where things are at and what's happening and if we look at this monthly trend we can see that all the way back since december back in 2018 so over six months ago now we started to see this trend where the market was still declining but it was declining less and less every single month and i said back when i started doing these updates we're going to watch this because if this continues eventually it's going to go into the positive and that's exactly what has happened this has led primarily by sydney and melbourne both drying obviously being the biggest capital cities with the most volume we can see they're both grown by about 0.2% we can say brisbane the third biggest capital city also had its first month of growth as well since declining i think it started declining back in november of 2018 so seeing rises there also rise in hobart and a strange out of character rise in darwin as well of 0.4% so five of the capital cities growing there over the month so there's a whole bunch of factors as to why this is happening and it's not just one thing so we've got the lowering of interest rates so the rba cut interest rates two basis points or by 0.5% these are the lowest interest rates we've had in history so obviously lower interest rates means people can borrow money at cheaper prices and makes housing more affordable you've got easier lending as well with abra releasing some of the criteria that banks need to look at in terms of lending they used to assess people i think it was on seven or 7.25% and now the banks have some flexibility with that many people who couldn't previously get loans may now be eligible for loans as well there's improved sentiment in the market there's been tax cuts and looking at the stock market as well there's not significant amounts of stock flooding to the market making it a buyers market so people listing there's been less listings which means there's less options there so they improve sentiment with the less options obviously helps push the prices up for that we can see here that the monthly sales with a six month moving average has started to find a floor here and actually move upward so back in the last two housing downturns we can see around here the monthly sales figures we can see we dip just below that but it looks like we're trending upward so this will be something that we need to watch and this is actually a really interesting data point that i wish i knew more about imagine back in july of 2013 you started seeing these figures and how many sales were moving up and you can see obviously 2015 2016 into 2017 was when we had that big boom in melbourne and sydney and then things started to slide off down a cliff so this could be a really good early indicator of where the market is going as a whole and so as you see this start to trend up that can be a positive sign by the looks of it let's jump in now and look at the different capital cities so sydney now saw its second month of growth and is up 0.2% since the bottom of the market they talked about in this video that units had less declined than houses and have actually grown more than houses but they also say that this may actually be because the unit stock was actually sold quite a while ago when the market was higher and is now just settling that these are inflated prices and could be inflating the market whether or not there's enough volume in here to inflate the sydney market as a whole and cause what we're seeing as a price increase i don't actually know about that one i don't think so because houses are up as well but it's definitely something to consider and this may dampen price growth moving into the future with units that are actually being sold today or these now finished stock coming on the market at more realistic prices so what i want to look at as well as the time on market and vendor discount and we want to look for trends in each of the cities so if we have a look at sydney here we can see 2019 going back to march of 2019 here and we can see that the days on market have moved from 74 down to 57 so this is moving in the right direction slowly but it did drop to 50 then 54 then back up to 57 so short term there actually is a trend in the wrong direction there so it's unclear as to days on market the trend but the vendor discount is definitely decreasing 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.4 6.3 so we're seeing that moving in the right direction doesn't currently look like a super hot market if we look at hobart back in 2018 with 911 12 days on market that is super hot so it doesn't look like a crazy hot market but the trend sort of does look like it's moving in the right direction there moving on to melbourne melbourne dwellings have gone up 0.2% this month and then now up 0.4% since their bottom sorry sydney was up 0.3% since its bottom not 0.2% melvin's up 0.4% since the bottom and they talk about the same thing with units here with unit settling that were actually purchased a while ago when the market was higher so melbourne fell a total of 11.1% since its peak and quite interesting is that unit values only fell 4.6% while house values of 14.1% below their peak so it shows a big difference in the dwelling values there but again this may be skewed by new units coming onto the market that were previously sold so let's have a look at the time on market and vendor discount for melbourne and see if we can see the trend there we can see that the number is healthier than sydney so 49 days on market compared to 57 but can we see a clear trend not really vendor discount is quite stable around the 6.5% and kind of has been hovering around there for some months days on market went from 61 down to the early 40s and short term that trend tends to be looks like it's moving upwards so even though the price is growing we're seeing a trend in days on market in the wrong direction there so this is something that i want to keep watching when you have you know mixed signals like this it makes it really hard to make a prediction of what's happening if the markets growing and you've got all these signals and the trends moving in the right direction you can say okay this market is looking to burn but when you've got it growing it has been in decline and the signals are moving in the wrong direction is that um i'm not exactly sure with that one now let's have a look at brisbane which grew 0.2% over the month and they say that brisbane decline has been shallow compared to sydney and melbourne so remember sydney fell i think over 15% melbourne fell just over 11% brisbane fell 2.9% since its peak but also had a much more relatively mild growth cycle where housing values average and the 1.4% per annum over the last five years so i did do a video where we talked about how brisbane is cheaper now than it was over 10 years ago so i'll link up to that down below that's because the average growth in brisbane over the last five over the last 10 years has actually not kept up with inflation so inflation has actually outpaced brisbane but brisbane has been declining since november of 2018 much to my own confusion given the market fundamentals there tended to be stronger than sydney and melbourne in my personal opinion but it's good to see that brisbane is on the rise again and there's a lot of people out there predicting brisbane to do really well and be one of the best performing cities moving forward so let's have a look at the days on market for brisbane we can say it's gone from 68 down to 6055 6064 so no clear trend there and vendor discount 4.8% and around the 5% so no clear trend there the days on market actually worse than sydney and melbourne but vendor discounting is better so i don't see a clear trend in the right direction for brisbane but working close with the team over pumped on property i do know that some pockets of brisbane are doing really well while other pockets of brisbane aren't doing very well so if you're looking at investing in any of these areas it's just very important that you look at the individual suburbs and which ones are in demand