NGI’s Hub & Flow

NGI’s Christopher Lenton, senior editor for Mexico & Latin America, sits down with one of the leading voices in Mexico's energy sector and the former head of Comisión Reguladora de Energía, Guillermo García Alcocer. The two discuss what could be on the horizon as Claudia Sheinbaum takes the presidential office in Mexico on Oct. 1, including potential shifts in Mexico’s energy regulatory bodies. In addition, with the Sheinbaum administration’s plans for transitioning Mexico’s electric generation mix coming to a head with rising energy demand, García Alcocer explains what could be required of both domestic natural gas supplies as well as U.S. imports. How could Mexico’s electricity, exploration and production, and LNG sectors be impacted by nearshoring? How could Mexico’s relationship with the United States be impacted as the two work to build their economies?

With natural gas prices having hovered around $2/MMBtu through much of 2024, NGI’s Pat Rau, senior vice president for Research & Analysis, delves into what may happen with producer activity moving into next year. Publicly traded producers have been on a tight leash the last five years in terms of production growth, he notes. With new LNG export capacity around the corner, however, publicly traded Lower 48 exploration and production (E&P) firms may push annual gas production above 5% year/year growth in 2025. Rau highlights other key developments at the end of 2024, particularly for Permian Basin E&Ps. Meanwhile, as discussions on artificial intelligence-driven data centers turned the tide on estimates for peak natural gas-fired generation earlier this year, Rau covers the latest prognostications for the emerging demand source.

From rising costs, construction delays and an increasing number of regulatory hurdles, U.S. LNG projects have seen a bevy of challenges this year, but how impactful really are the new obstacles? Baker Botts' Jason Bennett, department chair of global projects and co-chair of energy, discusses the near-term global natural gas market dynamics and domestic policies shaping the development of U.S. liquefied natural gas export capacity with NGI's Senior LNG Editor Jacob Dick. Despite rising complications, there is still strong demand for LNG, according to Bennett. One way or another, buyers will seek to fill LNG demand – and the U.S. natural gas market remains a strong supplier.

Susan Sakmar, a visiting law professor at the University of Houston Law Center and board member at Flex LNG Ltd., joins NGI’s LNG Managing Editor Jamison Cocklin to discuss the state of the global natural gas market as summer nears an end. The two review geopolitical tensions and supply security issues that are likely to factor heavily into the liquefied natural gas market this winter heating season. The conversation covers the recent court decision impacting Rio Grande and Texas LNG projects that could have far-reaching impacts for other export terminals under development. Sakmar and Cocklin also discuss some of the key events that have shaped the market in recent years, and how they are likely to influence its future.

Halfway through the summer, U.S. natural gas prices have struggled to gain momentum. NGI's team of markets reporters discuss the supply and demand factors at play in the market, and where natural gas prices may be heading into the winter and beyond.

Poten & Partners LNG industry analyst Sergio Chapa sits down with NGI’s Christopher Lenton, senior editor for Mexico & Latin America, to survey the current North American liquefied natural gas industry scene. They talk through the impacts of former Hurricane Beryl on Gulf Coast infrastructure. Chapa and Lenton also discuss the state of the Biden administration’s pause on U.S.-based LNG export projects and the implications for international competitors. Has the pause given impetus to other projects? How are Mexico LNG projects advancing in the wake of the regulatory back-and-forth?

CEO Amy Andryszak of the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America sits down with NGI's Carolyn Davis, managing editor of News, to share the opportunities and the concerns ahead for natural gas operators. Natural gas consumption is tracking higher, with industrial, commercial and residential use growing. Data centers are on the radar, as are expanded LNG exports. The question is, can natural gas pipeline capacity keep pace in light of the regulatory hurdles operators have to jump?

Join NGI's Patrick Rau, senior vice president of Research & Analysis, for his quarterly review of North American natural gas earnings calls as he discusses the possibility of EQT Corp. reversing output cuts. Other factors are expected to influence markets at the start of summer, including a slowdown in merger and acquisition approvals. Plus, the latest on data center opportunities and updates on Canada and Mexico.

Mexicans head to the polls this weekend in the biggest election in the country's history, with over 20,000 positions up for grabs and the near certainty that citizens will elect Mexico’s first female president. Claudia Sheinbaum of the establishment Morena party is the favorite against opposition candidate Xóchitl Gálvez. Each offers a distinct vision for the country's future. In this episode of Hub & Flow, NGI’s senior editor for Mexico and Latin America, Christopher Lenton, chats with natural gas expert Eduardo Prud'homme on both candidates' main policy positions. They also get into the energy deficits in Mexico, U.S.-Mexico natural gas trade, and what the country’s gas market could look like under the potential future administrations, along with a lot more.

In this episode of NGI’s Hub and Flow, NGI’s Carolyn Davis, managing editor, is joined by Carson Kearl, the lead analyst for Enverus Intelligence Research about data centers and advanced energy technologies. Power generation for the energy-intensive centers is expected to grow across the Lower 48 by double-digits in the next few years, and Kearl shares recent Enverus research on the implications for the domestic natural gas market.

Neil Chatterjee, a former FERC chairman and commissioner, joins NGI’s Jamison Cocklin, managing editor of LNG, to discuss the political and regulatory aspects of President Biden’s pause on authorizing new liquefied natural gas export projects. Chatterjee, currently an environmental and energy attorney at Hogan Lovells in Washington, DC, discusses the legality of the pause, the U.S. LNG review process and the deadlock at FERC that’s slowing down projects like Venture Global LNG Inc.’s CP2 facility.

Energy and environmental policy expert Chris Treanor, executive director of the Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE), joins NGI Senior Editor of LNG Jacob Dick to recap some of the highlights from CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston and what could be ahead for the natural gas industry during this election year. Treanor and Dick discuss the need for constructive policies around LNG and natural gas generally, in order to meet climate goals while protecting energy security for the United States and its allies. Treanor shares his reaction to comments made by Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm at the conference, as well as his thoughts on the Biden administration’s pause of LNG export approvals.

In the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow, NGI Senior Markets Editor Kevin Dobbs interviews Paragon Global Markets LLC’s Steve Blair, managing director of institutional energy sales. Blair addresses production and supplies in storage, domestic weather and LNG demand, and sets the stage for the summer ahead in natural gas markets. Blair noted that, while prices are currently suppressed following a mild winter and record production during the heating season, natural gas output in recent weeks has come off record highs. Major producers such as Chesapeake Energy and EQT Corp. have publicly announced efforts to scale back production to align supply/demand. Forecasts, meanwhile, point to another hot summer. Longer term, LNG export facilities are poised to open soon on the Gulf Coast to meet growing global gas needs. Should demand rise in parallel with lower production, markets could rally. Blair and Dobbs delve into the state of natural gas markets.

NGI senior editor Chris Lention interviewed Mexico energy expert Rosanety Barrios in the latest NGI podcast. Barrios is the head of the energy team for Mexican presidential candidate Xóchitl Gálvez, who remains behind in polling but is gaining ground on the establishment pick, Claudia Sheinbaum. Topics discussed included Gálvez’s plans for the energy sector, focusing on the role of natural gas. They dive into how natural gas pricing plays into energy security, as well as LNG export projects, the future of refineries and the burning of fuel oil. They discuss how Cenagas will be employed in a new government, including open access policies, the transformation of the state companies CFE and Pemex, jump-starting Mexico's natural gas production, and ultimately what Barrios would prioritize if she were to become Mexico's next Energy Minister.

What is the outlook for North American natural gas? We discuss this and more in NGI's latest podcast diving into energy company fourth quarter earnings reports, Wall Street’s consensus estimates and thoughts on the quarterly Nabors Industries Ltd. survey of major U.S. E&P customers and how predictive it is of rig counts.

Flex LNG CEO Oystein Kalleklev joins NGI's Senior LNG Editor Jamison Cocklin to discuss attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and how the security situation is impacting the global natural gas market. Flex owns a fleet of LNG carriers. The episode explores why the attacks have so far done little to disrupt LNG shipping and how that could change if they continue longer-term. Kalleklev also weighs in on the Biden administration's decision to pause U.S. export authorizations.

After the Jan. 26 announcement from the Biden administration that Department of Energy authorizations for new LNG export projects will be paused for an open-ended period, speculation has swirled about what that could mean for the industry and global supply. Rapidan Energy Group's Alex Munton joins NGI's Jacob Dick to discuss what it means, why it happens and which developing projects might be the most impacted.

At a recent energy conference in the booming border town of Monterrey, NGI Mexico Senior Editor Chris Lenton was among panelists exploring the changing dynamics of the Mexico natural gas market. In this podcast, NGI North America Senior Editor Andrew Baker interviews Chris on the main takeaways from the conference from his viewpoint along with major industrialists, businessmen, traders and government officials in Mexico. They discuss the upcoming election in Mexico, the overall mood in the country, how the market has changed under the six years of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, and how the U.S. pause on export licenses for LNG could impact Mexico LNG projects and perhaps even pipeline shipments.

After one of the warmest Decembers on record, Old Man Winter arrived in grand fashion in January, sending temperatures plunging and natural gas prices skyrocketing. NGI Price & Markets Editor Leticia Gonzales is joined by Senior Markets Editors Kevin Dobbs, Chris Newman and Jodi Shafto to discuss the impacts the Arctic blast had on natural gas prices, production, storage, midstream infrastructure and the power grid. Is the natural gas market prepared for another frigid spell in February? NGI's Thought Leaders share their insights on the latest winter storm and the expectations for the rest of winter in the latest episode of NGI's Hub & Flow.

In the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow, NGI Senior Markets Editor Kevin Dobbs interviews Thomas Saal, senior vice president of energy at StoneX Financial. Saal digs into supplies in storage, record production, speculators' impact, moderate winter weather-driven demand so far and LNG export activity – the myriad pieces that make up the winter supply/demand puzzle and how they may impact prices through the heating season and beyond. Saal and Dobbs spoke shortly after the latest Energy Information (EIA) storage report was released on Thursday. EIA printed a 117 Bcf withdrawal for the week ended Dec. 1. It marked the second consecutive triple-digit pull of the season. Yet inventories remained nearly 7% above the five-year average for this time of year. Record production in November that topped 106 Bcf/d, combined with mostly benign weather through the fall, accounted for much of the difference. But the overall natural gas picture is more complicated than that. Dobbs and Sall delve into more detail.

Mexico’s demand for U.S. natural gas continues to mount, and 2024 appears no different. Following a recent cross-border conference, NGI’s Christopher Lenton and Andrew Baker read the tea leaves regarding market sentiment while diving into the various factors driving Mexico’s growing demand for U.S. natural gas, including power generation, LNG projects and nearshoring, as well as the implications of Mexico’s upcoming presidential election.

Amid an increasingly positive outlook for natural gas, North American midstream companies stand ready to connect supply with demand markets in the Lower 48 and beyond. NGI's Leticia Gonzales, Kevin Dobbs, Josiah Clinedinst and Josten Mavez discuss the slew of pipeline, gathering and processing projects planned in the U.S., as well as the natural gas pricing dynamics driving those developments and the projects that lie ahead.

Join NGI's Patrick Rau for his quarterly review of North America natural gas earnings calls as he discusses whether the recent ExxonMobil/Pioneer and Chevron/Hess deals have ushered in the next wave of M&A activity among larger cap E&P names, the latest on U.S. LNG and an early look at 2024 U.S. producer activity.

Abaxx Chief Commercial Officer Joe Raia joins NGI’s Senior LNG Editor Jamison Cocklin to discuss Abaxx’s ongoing efforts to launch a new commodity exchange that will list LNG, nickel and carbon futures initially. Abaxx’s new regulated futures clearinghouse will be the first launched in over a decade. Its plans to list physically settled contracts for the three major LNG markets in Northwest Europe, North Asia and the Gulf Coast comes as the global gas market is searching for a better benchmark to manage increasing risk and volatility. Those contracts are coming closer to being a reality after the company completed its latest round of financing to secure nearly $20 million.

In the latest podcast, NGI's Mexico Editor Christopher Lenton interviews Tony Payan, Director, Center for the United States and Mexico at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The focus of the podcast is on the upcoming presidential election in Mexico. The race is down to Claudia Sheinbaum of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's Morena party and Xochitl Gálvez of the opposition coalition who is rising rapidly in polling. Who might win is the big question, but also what are their positions, and how might each differ from López Obrador? It promises to be a fascinating period between now and June's vote, and this podcast is essential listening as a guide on what to expect.

In the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow, Senior Markets Editor Kevin Dobbs interviews Steve Blair, senior account executive at Marex North America LLC. Blair addresses possible production cuts, supplies in storage, weather demand, Australian LNG strikes, war in Russia and more – setting the stage for winter supply/demand and what may happen with prices through the heating season. As Blair noted, many analysts think falling rig counts are starting to contribute to lower output estimates. At the same time, winter weather is around the corner and new LNG export facilities are poised to open soon on the Gulf Coast. If these demand drivers develop in concert with lower production, markets could rally. Blair and Dobbs explain why.

NGI LNG editors Jamison Cocklin and Jacob Dick give an update on dozens of LNG export projects that are advancing across North America. They review what’s under construction and what’s been proposed, and examine the prospects for projects that haven’t been sanctioned, as well as the challenges facing projects at all stages of development.

Perhaps no theme during 2Q23 North American natural gas earnings conference calls was discussed more than the need for L48 natural gas production to increase in order to service the next wave of U.S. natural gas export facilities. NGI's Patrick Rau discusses factors that may both support and impede that effort.

Natural gas demand for power generation has soared to new heights this summer as record heat in June and July fueled air-conditioning consumption. LNG demand also is trending higher year/year as Freeport’s return has kept feed gas deliveries strong in spite of seasonal maintenance at other facilities. This begs the question: Why are natural gas prices in the dumps, and when can we expect the market to move closer into balance? In this episode of the podcast, NGI Price & Markets Editor Leticia Gonzales is joined by Price Analysts Josiah Clinedinst and Josten Mavez to discuss everything from production trends to pipeline outages, as well as what may lie ahead for the natural gas market in the coming months.

Volatility in the North American oil and gas market is nothing new, as global commodity prices fluctuate in response to constant supply and demand changes. The number of drilling rigs in operation – and where – is a major indicator of oil and gas supply, in that it speaks to well completion activity and future production. In this episode of the Hub & Flow podcast, Natural Gas Intelligence managing editor Carolyn Davis speaks with Primary Vision Network CEO Matthew Johnson, whose company each week publishes the Frac Spread Count, and they dig into where the U.S. drilling rig market is today and where it is forecast to be in the months to come.

Rapidan Energy Group’s Alex Munton, director of global gas service, joins NGI’s Senior LNG Editor Jamison Cocklin, to discuss how U.S. regulators are stepping up efforts to more closely scrutinize LNG export authorizations as global gas trading booms. They analyze the U.S. Department of Energy’s recent decision to more firmly impose deadlines for starting exports and establish conditions for acceptable delays. The conversation also explores how the policy has limited the path forward for Lake Charles LNG and the major hurdles it could create for about a dozen other U.S. export projects trying to move ahead.

NGI's Leticia Gonzales, Price & Markets Editor, talks to the RNG Coalition's Dana Adams, Manager of Legislative Policy, to discuss natural gas' essential role in the transition to a clean energy future. In this episode of Hub & Flow, Adams shares her insights into how renewable natural gas, carbon capture and sequestration, weatherization and clean heat policies are paving the way for the U.S.

NGI Senior Markets Editor Kevin Dobbs interviews Steve Blair, a senior account executive at Marex North America LLC. Blair tackles production, supplies, weather demand, LNG and more – essentially setting the stage for summer supply/demand and what may happen with prices through the peak cooling season. Lower production in June has largely been attributed to planned maintenance. But some analysts think falling rig counts are starting to contribute to lower output estimates. At the same time, the South is cooking and other regions are warming fast. National Weather Service long-range forecasts point to at least average heat in July and August. There is also the potential for an uptick in liquefied natural gas demand in the coming months. If these demand drivers develop in concert with lower production, markets could rally. Blair explains why.

In the latest episode of the Hub & Flow podcast, NGI's senior Latin America editor Chris Lenton chats to Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH) Commissioner Hector Moreira, PhD, about the major trends shaping Mexico's upstream sector. They dig into what's behind the rising natural gas production trend; whether Mexico will restart bidding rounds; how effective Petróleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, has been in bringing down flaring; the increasing need for a domestic natural gas price index in Mexico; and how big the promise of nearshoring could be, and what it means for the energy sector.

Diving into annual FERC 552 Data, NGI’s Research & Strategy Director Patrick Rau analyzes what this required filing reveals about leading the U.S. natural gas market. Who leads the pack in terms of buying, selling and marketing natural gas in the United States? Tune in to Episode 110 of NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast to find out.

Structural changes have led to a surge in demand for U.S. underground natural gas storage capacity, but capacity additions have been non-existent for the last decade plus. Is more on the way? Plus, a quick primer of the industry, including market share statistics.

Port Arthur reached FID earlier this year, but a recent decision from the U.S. Department of Energy could compromise many partially contracted projects going forward. Things appear to be pointing up in Mexico, and Canada could be preparing for another FID of its own.

The transportation sector has the highest reliance on fossil fuels, and with the International Energy Agency estimating that to get the sector up to speed with net zero goals – which it currently is not – emissions would need to drop to 6 gigatons (Gt) of carbon dioxide on an annual basis by 2030. For reference, the agency estimated that in 2021, emissions from the global transportation sector rose to 7.7 Gt after falling to 7.1 Gt during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Three decades ago, it appeared natural gas vehicles (NGV) would drive the United States over the bridge to a more sustainable transportation sector. However, as electric vehicle (EV) technology has evolved, and as U.S. consumers have shown more favorability to EVs in the passenger vehicle market, NGVs have shifted to the heavy-duty transportation sector. NGI Senior Analyst Josten Mavez discusses why this shift occurred and how natural gas could continue to promote decarbonization in the transportation sector despite EVs’ takeover.

NGI's Jacob Dick, associate editor of LNG, talks with Ira Joseph, global fellow with Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, about the global LNG price risks that still abound despite a relatively calm winter. Joseph shares his insight as a veteran global gas market analyst and researcher to provide context for where prices could be heading next and why Europe's energy crisis is far from over.

NGI Mexico and Latin America Editor Chris Lenton chats to LNG analyst Sergio Chapa of Poten & Partners about LNG in Mexico in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine. Which projects are getting built? What about Fast LNG? How is financing changing in the LNG segment in Latin America, and what are the advantages of Mexico LNG exports? This and more in the latest NGI podcast.

NGI's Patrick Rau discusses the slow pace of project FID decisions, potential longer-term challenges to future U.S. onshore LNG liquefaction projects, and touches on how the recently announced supply arrangement between Chesapeake and Gunvor could impact U.S. gas supply.

NGI Managing Editor Carolyn Davis chats with editors Kevin Dobbs, Morgan Evans and Jacob Dick about the most interesting things they heard during the 2023 CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston. The editors talk permitting, exclusive insight from players in the LNG industry and the latest talk about natural gas in the energy transition.

Senior LNG editor Jamison Cocklin and special contributor Brad Hitch discuss Hitch's new column that was launched for NGI's LNG Insight earlier this year. Hitch, an industry veteran and a former LNG trader, discusses the need for better information in the global gas market, along with broader trends impacting the sector, including the impact of growing U.S. liquefaction capacity, and what to expect in the coming years as Europe continues to displace Russian gas.

NGI's expert markets editor Leticia Gonzales, joined by associate editor Morgan Evans, answers some pressing questions on California's exceptionally high natural gas prices this winter, how they compare to the surrounding regions, and weather- and infrastructure-related elements that have pushed prices upward since the start of the season. Evans also discusses how these prices have caught the interest of regulators and California's consumers, and what utilities are doing to help ease the financial burden on their customers.

NGI senior editors Andrew Baker and Kevin Dobbs discuss the outlook for North American natural gas prices in 2023. They address factors including a mild weather start to the year, robust U.S. production, the Freeport LNG outage and the potential for future increases in export capacity. Baker and Dobbs also delve into how Canada and Mexico fit into the North American supply and demand picture – from how pipeline constraints in the United States impact Canadian natural gas prices to the prospects for increased U.S. gas exports to Mexico.

Senior LNG Editor Jamison Cocklin and Associate LNG Editor Jacob Dick discuss the downward trend of European and Asian natural gas during the start of the year. They also talk about the implications of mild winter weather, strong gas storage levels and low prices on global LNG markets, including U.S. terminal contracting.

What will be the main themes in energy in Latin America in 2023? NGI Latin America editor Christopher Lenton chats to Rice University's Francisco Monaldi about the major natural gas and oil themes from Mexico down to Argentina, in a world upended by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Will Latin America export more LNG? Will it provide more oil barrels to the global market to replace Russian deliveries? Listen in to find out what to expect in Latin America energy in 2023.

In the past two weeks, seven power stations have been hit by attacks. The Department of Homeland Security is considering domestic terrorist attacks intended to disrupt U.S. energy infrastructure. NGI's Senior Energy Analyst Shaylon Stolk discusses what the attacks on utilities in Washington, Oregon, and North Carolina might mean for the energy market and the natural gas industry in the political context of U.S. cooperation with Europe to address their natural gas shortages.

The United States has already taken a $29 billion hit from extreme weather events this year. With unusual weather becoming the new normal, building energy infrastructure that can survive the onslaught has become a major priority. NGI's Senior Energy Analyst, Shaylon Stolk, discusses how utilities are trying to balance the urgent need for new energy infrastructure to meet increasing demands and the long-term necessity of heavily weatherized natural gas and power grids that can adapt to the changing climate.

The world can't get U.S. LNG fast enough, but several major potential onshore U.S. liquefaction projects are saying not so fast, and are pushing out their potential FID dates. We believe there are a number of factors behind this, including the potential rise of Fast LNG.