Audio is streamed directly from the publisher (api.substack.com) as published in their RSS feed. Play Podcasts does not host this file. Rights-holders can request removal through the copyright & takedown page.
Show Notes
Subscribe to the newsletter:
New Wave | Hugo Rauch | Substack
****
🌊 Obsession, Timing & the 50x Decision
What it really takes to back, and double down on, a climate breakout.
We’re joined by Otto Birnbaum, Founding Partner at Revent, an early-stage fund backing companies at the intersection of climate, demographic, and technological change. Revent was an early investor in tem, which recently raised a $75M round.
In this conversation, we unpack what happens inside a fund when a breakout company emerges, and how to think about follow-on strategy, ownership, timing, and conviction.
This episode is a masterclass in early-stage venture mechanics.
In our conversation, we covered:
→ How to spot exceptional founders (obsession, clarity of vision, and relentless execution)
→ Why Revent avoids the word “impact” (and what they focus on instead)
→ The original investment thesis behind tem
→ What a $200M+ valuation means for a $60M fund
→ How much ownership early-stage funds really need
→ When to double down, and when to de-risk at 50x
→ Why timing might matter more than anything else
→ Why 2026 belongs to AI, but climate infrastructure is far from dead
→ “Looking left” when everyone looks right
Otto breaks down fund math transparently:
10% ownership at a $300M valuation = ~$30M position
For a $60M fund, that’s half the fund returned, at least on paper
True breakout? When it returns the whole fund.
We also explore:
Why SPVs matter when you hit concentration limits
How to construct angel-heavy cap tables with “superpowers”
Why growth rate alone isn’t enough, margin and revenue stickiness matter
And the brutal truth: timing can kill or make a company.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit newwavenewsletter.substack.com