NCUSCR U.S.-China Insights

China's economy has grown faster than any other over the last 40 years — but there are troubling signs ahead. How could a Chinese economic downturn affect people in the rest of the world? Houze Song, a fellow at MacroPolo who specializes in the Chinese economy, explains how slowing economic growth, an aging society, and a looming property crisis have implications not just for China, but for the United States and beyond. (Click here for a full transcript of this podcast) 1:17 What is the general trend of China's economic outlook? 2:21 What indicators measure the health of China's economy? 3:37 What are the challenges facing China's economy? 7:25 How will a slowing Chinese economy affect the United States? About the speaker: https://www.ncuscr.org/podcast/chinas-slowing-economy/ Follow Houze Song on Twitter: @hzong Subscribe to the National Committee on YouTube for video of this interview. Follow us on Twitter (@ncuscr) and Instagram (@ncuscr). Visit our website for more U.S.-China Insights: https://www.ncuscr.org/us-china-insights

Xi Jinping is China's political leader, but what does that mean in practice? Yuhua Wang, professor of government at Harvard University, analyzes Xi's status in the Chinese political system and how much influence he has. About the speaker: https://www.ncuscr.org/podcast/how-powerful-is-xi-jinping/

Dr. Meg Rithmire (Harvard Business School) gives an updated summary of China's unique political and economic system, describing its changing relationship towards Chinese businesses, citizens, and even the United States.

In recent years Japan has found itself increasingly at a crossroads between its post-War ally, the United States, and rising neighbor, China. U.S. Editor and Chief Desk Editor of Nikkei Asia, Ken Moriyasu, examines the geopolitics, trade, and history that play a role in shaping Japan's ties with both major powers. Learn more at ncuscr.org/uschinainsights

In China, industry and political leaders are capitalizing on sci-fi's unique ability to inspire the public and project a vision of the future that features China as a global innovation leader. Experts Aynne Kokas, Jing Tsu, and Yilin Wang explore how this genre can both reflect China's present and shape its future.

The United States and China have pledged to work together to fight climate change. But is cooperation enough to stop global temperatures from rising past 1.5 degrees Celsius? Climate policy expert Deborah Seligsohn (Villanova University) explains how competition between the two countries can be leveraged as a positive force to deliver the best environmental outcomes. For more videos and podcasts, visit us at ncuscr.org/media.

Stop AAPI Hate co-founder Russell Jeung addresses the alarming reports of violence and crimes committed against Asian Americans over the past year. He examines the racist beliefs that often motivate perpetrators, discusses the influence of social media, and offers a hopeful look at how Asian American communities and their allies are standing up to injustice nationwide. Russell Jeung is a professor of Asian American studies at San Francisco State University. In 2020, Dr. Jeung launched Stop AAPI Hate, a project for tracking Covid-19-related discrimination in order to develop community resources and policy interventions to fight racism. Learn more about anti-Asian racism in the United States, and what you can do to help: ncuscr.org/anti-racism.

A successful pandemic response helped reshape Taiwan's image in 2020. Could a new U.S. administration further change the island's prospects in 2021? Margaret Lewis explores the new year's possibilities for U.S.-Taiwan relations, as well as the key issues facing the Taiwan government's domestic and global standing.

Asian Americans are often stereotyped as a "model minority." UC Boulder Professor of Ethnic Studies Jennifer Ho and Queens College President Frank H. Wu measure this stereotype and its damaging repercussions against a history of Asian American activism and solidarity among minority groups, deconstructing the myth that still exists today.

On July 23, 2020, the United States government ordered the Chinese consulate in Houston to close. Less than a week later, the American consulate in Chengdu was vacated as reciprocation from Beijing. Harvard Department of Government Ph.D. candidate and former diplomat Naima Green-Riley analyzes the motivations behind each government's drastic step and evaluates the possible implications for the regions serviced by each consulate, as well as the U.S.-China relationship as a whole.

The Justice Department's China Initiative against economic espionage and intellectual property theft has made Chinese students in the United States a focus of increasing scrutiny, while Congress has initiated legislation aiming to restrict this broad group's ability to work and study in the United States. In light of the Justice Department's more than 3,000 active investigations of China-affiliated researchers and students in the United States, Queens College President Frank Wu discusses the initiative, the resulting increase in scrutiny of Chinese nationals and Chinese-American students, and the potential threat to American competitiveness and economic vitality that these developments present. Frank H. Wu is the president of Queens College, former president of the Committee of 100, and a former litigator and professor of law.

President Tsai Ing-wen was re-elected in January, 2020, on a platform similar to that of her first term, yet new cross-Strait developments and changing challenges at home suggest the next four years may not be a continuation of the status quo. Seton Hall University law professor and Taiwan expert Margaret Lewis explores the possibilities for mainland-Taiwan relations as well as the local issues that will define both Tsai's second term and the near future of Taiwan.

The United States and China have historically maintained an organic relationship of exchange in the tech world: sharing financial capital, professional talent, innovative research and ideas. At the same time, individual companies have competed for dominance in each other's and global markets. Yet as cases like Huawei have shown, in recent years Washington has chosen to increasingly restrict and monitor the tech industry's ties to China, in an effort to contend with Beijing's own involvement within this field. In this episode of U.S.-China Insights, expert Matt Sheehan explains the collaborative and competitive nature of the U.S.-China tech relationship, and how it will be affected by attempts to 'securitize' and even decouple the tech sector. Matt Sheehan is a fellow at the Paulson Institute's think tank, MacroPolo, where he leads the team's work on U.S.-China technology issues, specializing in artificial intelligence. He is the author of "The Transpacific Experiment: How China and California Collaborate and Compete for our Future."

Leading American and Chinese economists answer one question: name one way the the U.S.-China trade war has affected the American economy and global trade over the past two years. Despite the signing of a phase-one deal on January 15, until all tariffs are lifted, many of these adverse impacts will continue. Dr. Huang Yiping, Professor and Deputy Dean, National School of Development, Peking University Dr. Nicholas Lardy, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics; Vice Chair of the Board, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations Dr. Liang Hong, Head of Research, Member of the Management Committee, China International Capital Corporation Dr. Catherine L. Mann, Global Chief Economist, Citi Dr. Stephen Roach, Senior Fellow, Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, Yale University; Former Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia

What can food teach us about history, immigration, and international relations? For Lucas Sin, chef and culinary director of Junzi Kitchen, food is a window into a larger world, one where Chinese and American culture and history collide, mix, and transform. From four-thousand-year-old noodles to Nixon's 1972 'chopstick diplomacy,' from the suburbanization of Americanized Chinese food to the modern proliferation of regional and fusion styles, Chef Sin discusses the evolving landscape of Chinese cuisine in the United States, and its ability to change perspectives by sparking connections between people. Lucas Sin opened his first restaurant when he was 16, in an abandoned newspaper factory in his hometown of Hong Kong. Despite spending his Yale undergraduate years in the Cognitive Science and English departments, Lucas spent his weekends running restaurants out of his dorm, known as Y Pop-up. After stints at Michelin 3-star Kikunoi Honten in Kyoto and Modernist Cuisine in Seattle, he is now on a mission to revitalize Chinese cuisine in the United States as the chef and culinary director of Junzi Kitchen.

When the world's two largest economies become mired in trade conflict, there are bound to be global consequences. As analysts predict increasing risk for a global economic downturn, VanEck's Chief Emerging Markets Economist Natalia Gurushina looks at what the trade war might mean for other countries, and explains how these consequences could have unforeseen repercussions for both the United States and China. Natalia Gurushina is the chief emerging markets economist for VanEck's Emerging Markets Unconstrained Fixed Income Strategy. She has been a member of the Investment Management Team since 2013. Prior to joining VanEck, Dr. Gurushina worked for Roubini Global Economics, where she was responsible for Emerging Markets Currency/Fixed Income and G10 Currency Strategies. She has also previously worked as an analyst at Pantera Capital Management, a Tiger Management spin-off, and as an EMEA economist at Deutsche Bank. Dr. Gurushina holds a Ph.D. in economic history from the University of Oxford and a B.A. in economics from Moscow State University.

The role government should play in the free market has always been a contentious issue, even more so when international trade jeopardizes national security. As the standoff between the United States and China continues, disagreements over what constitutes mutually acceptable trade practices are becoming more entrenched, with both governments accusing the other of interference and overreach. Watch Amy Celico of Albright Stonebridge Group discuss how concerns over economic competition and national security inform U.S. implementation of trade strategies like market protectionism and 'securitization.' Amy Celico is a principal of Albright Stonebridge Group, a global strategic advisory and commercial diplomacy firm, and leads the firm's China practice in Washington, D.C. She has more than 20 years of experience working on China issues. Previously, Ms. Celico served as senior director for China affairs at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. She also worked at the U.S. Departments of Commerce and State in Beijing and Shanghai, as well as the International Trade Administration and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research in Washington, D.C. Ms. Celico serves on the Board of Directors of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations.

Advocating for the LGBTQ community takes different forms in the United States and China, with domestic politics and cultural norms influencing how organizations raise awareness and provide services in each country. One of the leading LGBTQ rights organizations in the United States is the Human Rights Campaign (HRC), whose director of global, Jay Gilliam, participated in the National Committee's Professional Fellows Program in 2018. Through this two-way exchange program for emerging NGO leaders, Mr. Gilliam spent two weeks at the Zhitong Guangzhou LGBT Center, where he learned about the organization and shared insights from his work at HRC. In this interview, he explains the differences between HRC and Zhitong's programming, how healthcare and LGBTQ issues intersect, and social attitudes toward the LGBTQ community in both countries. Jay Gilliam is director of global at the Human Rights Campaign (HRC), where he leads HRC's global work alongside advocates, organizations and movements around the world to advance LGBTQ equality everywhere. Prior to joining HRC, Jay served at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) for nearly five years working in the Bureau of Policy, Planning and Learning, the Bureau for Legislative and Public Affairs, and in the Office of the Senior LGBT Coordinator. In these roles, he shared how the Agency does more effective work and maximizes its impact in the development space; led USAID communications and public engagement efforts on LGBT inclusive development work; and developed stories about the hard work done around the world to end extreme poverty.

The U.S.-China relationship is clearly undergoing a transformation: after 40 years of normalized diplomatic relations, the status quo no longer seems acceptable to either side. One of the largest shifts has been the emergence of strategic issues as a greater factor in bilateral interactions. Dr. Evan S. Medeiros of Georgetown University explains this 'securitization' of the relationship, how it affects trade and diplomacy, and whether it represents a long-term trend. Evan S. Medeiros is the Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. Until June 2015, Dr. Medeiros served as special assistant to President Barack Obama and senior director for Asian Affairs at the National Security Council (NSC), responsible for coordinating U.S. policy toward the Asia-Pacific across the areas of diplomacy, defense, economics, and intelligence affairs. He joined the NSC staff in summer 2009 as director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian affairs and was actively involved in U.S.-China relations throughout his NSC tenure, including by developing the initial proposal for the Sunnyland's Summit, planning the president's 2014 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and managing numerous other high-level U.S.-China interactions. In recent years, Dr. Medeiros advised multinational companies on Asia in his role as managing director practice head for Asia at Eurasia Group, the global political risk consultancy. Prior to joining the White House, Dr. Medeiros also worked for seven years as a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. From 2007 to 2008, he also served as policy advisor to Secretary Hank Paulson working on the U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue at the Treasury Department. Dr. Medeiros currently serves on the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations' Board of Directors and is a fellow in its Public Intellectuals Program.

Since the beginning of China's reform era in 1978, the country's urban population has grown by 40%, with 813 million people now living in its cities. That number is predicted to reach one billion by 2030, continuing the unprecedented migration from rural to urban areas. Dr. Weiping Wu of Columbia University provides insight into the complicated process of China's urbanization, from its hukou registration system to the ever-evolving definition of what constitutes a city, and contrasts the United States' urban development to China's. Weiping Wu is professor of urban planning at Columbia University's Graduate School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation, and director of the M.S. Urban Planning program. She is also on the faculty of the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and Columbia Population Research Center. Before joining Columbia in 2016, she was professor and chair in the Department of Urban and Environmental Policy and Planning at Tufts University. Dr. Wu is a fellow of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations' Public Intellectuals Program. Trained in architecture and urban planning, Dr. Wu has focused her research and teaching on understanding urban dynamics in developing countries – in general and China, in particular. She is an internationally acclaimed urban and planning scholar working on global urbanization with a specific expertise in issues of migration, housing, and infrastructure of Chinese cities. Her publications include eight books, as well as many articles in top international journals. Dr. Wu's published works have gained an increasing public presence, particularly her recent book, The Chinese City (Routledge, 2012). It offers a critical understanding of China's urbanization, exploring how the complexity of Chinese cities both conforms to and defies conventional urban theories and experiences of cities elsewhere around the world.