Morning Brief

UK has the fourth highest number of Covid-19 cases in the world, not helped by Boris Johnson’s vague campaign tagline: “Stay Alert, Control The Virus". Pollster YouGov found that only 30% of voters understand the new slogan. As such, governments in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are pursuing their own policies. Patrick Diamond, Associate Professor of Public Policy, Queen Mary University of London helps us understand what is going on in the UK.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Contrary to street expectations, Malaysia unexpectedly eked out a 0.7% expansion in the first quarter, leading to hopes of a narrower full-year contraction due the global effects of Covid-19, says Singapore-based Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research at ANZ Bank.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is its ambitious plan to reform its economy and diversify away from its dependence on oil revenues. But the pandemic and oil price shock have thrown a wrench in the works. Will this impair Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's power in the Kingdom and the region?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Market watchers are divided on the question of whether companies should be given more time to adhere to strict corporate liability provisions under Section 17 of the MACC Act due to the fallout from Covid-19. But, Lya Rahman of the Institutional Investors Council Malaysia (IIC) says companies must begin complying now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kedah will see a change in leadership as chief minister, Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir will have to vacate his position after two PKR state assemblymen switched their allegiance to support Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin. Professor James Chin, Director of the Asia Institute Tasmania at the University of Tasmania outlines what to expect as we get closer to 18 May when Parliament meetsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Reuniting on the second anniversary of their historic victory, Bersatu chairman, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim released a joint statement, asserting that they have again resolved their differences and are joining forces again. This came after the Dewan Rakyat Speaker Tan Sri Mohamad Ariff Yusof accepted Tun Mahathir’s motion of no confidence bill on Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin in the upcoming parliament. The motion is unprecedented as it's the first time a government backbencher has done so against the Prime Minister from his own party. So what to make of this move?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Regional banks are getting hit by declining net interest margins, lower loan growth and higher non-performing loans. Harsh Wardhan Modi, Co-Head of Asia ex-Japan Banks Equity Research, JP Morgan discusses his expectations, and the ones that will weather the storm.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In March, the number of unemployed persons rose to over 600,000, which Chief Statistician Datuk Seri Dr. Uzir Mahidin said is the highest unemployment rate in a decade. Laurence Todd, Head of Research & Development at the think-tank IDEAS, discusses govt policy, youth unemployed and the potential for rehiring as lockdown ends.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The World Health Organization has come out to say that contact-tracing applications cannot replace old-fashioned interviews and surveillance, in getting ahead of the Covid-19 pandemic. With governments, including Malaysia's, beginning to encourage the public to use these apps to supplement virus mitigation efforts, we speak to Benjamin Cowling, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong, about how effective these apps are in helping to combat Covid-19.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Attempts to reopen country economies are hindered by fears of a second wave of infection, as a vaccine for Covid-19 has yet to be found. But the World Health Organisation has said that over 120 vaccine candidates have been proposed around the world and some have entered into clinical trials. In order to get more insight, we speak to Sam Fazeli, Senior Healthcare Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, about how far away we are from a vaccine, as well as who the key players are in this race.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the midst of the pandemic, the wheels of politics continue to turn.We look at what is happening at Bersatu and until recently, the quiet chairman of the party - Tun Dr Mahathir.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Iqbal Ameer, CEO of Livescape Group tells us that events were the first to be cancelled but probably the last sector to recover as physical distancing is the new normal. He gives us his views on how the industry can move forward and how it has somewhat been neglected by the government despite its importance to the economy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Following Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin's announcement of a Conditional Movement Control Order, several states have opted against implementing the new phase of the MCO. To find out whether this may result in lawsuits, or if it is reflective of Perikatan Nasional's weakening hold on power, we speak to Tricia Yeoh, Fellow at the Institute of Democracy and Economic Affairs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With Covid-19 dominating every headline, the US-China trade war seems like a thing of the past. Yet now, as both countries start to point fingers over the origin of the coronavirus, it seems that both these major economies may be at loggerheads once again. For more on this, we speak to Aaron Connelly, Research Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, about whether this is all a part of Donald Trump's election strategy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Morning Run Team takes a look at the front pages of the newspapers, and takes a look at other regional economies weathering the Covid-19 pandemic.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bank Negara Malaysia cut the overnight policy rate by 50bps to 2.00% as expected citing the weaker global economic conditions. To find out whether more cuts are in store and the state of the domestic economy, we speak to Julia Goh, Senior Economist at UOB Malaysia for her views on the matter. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ahead of Bank Negara’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, we discuss the likely outcome and outlook for the Malaysian economy with OCBC economist Wellian Wiranto. Contrary to street expectations, Wellian believes BNM could hold rates for the time being, as the loans moratorium reduces the impact of an interest rate cut. He also shares his thoughts on the impact of the Conditional MCO and the potential shape of economic recovery.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

09:20 - PNB assures that the payout from its fund will remain competitive this year, despite a fall in net income resulting from Covid-19. 13:10 - Malaysia is not the only country looking to reopen its economy, others include Singapore and Hong Kong, who both stand at risk of recession.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As tensions between Umno and Bersatu rise, will we see any resolution or will we see more drastic developments? Suggestions have been made that Bersatu members should just join with Umno while others have called for Bersatu to rejoin the Pakatan Harapan coalition. Helping us to unpack this is Dr Bridget Welsh from the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Travel has been halted all over the world, forcing airlines and aerospace players to dramatically cut costs and even lay off thousands of employees. Many suggest that the industry will fundamentally change because of COVID-19. So what will the new normal look like for the industry?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last Friday, the Prime Minister announced an easing of restrictions in which a number of economic sectors were allowed to be open today onwards under a conditional MCO. Malaysians have been split about their views on the conditional MCO fearing a rise in Covid-19 infection rates with several state governments opting out from this conditional MCO. Focus Malaysia's P Gunasegaram gives us his take.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China was the first country to go into a lockdown early this year and was also the first to emerge but can their economy restart? Gary Ng, Asia Pacific Economist at Natixis tells us what are the issues they face and the policy options available. He also tells us what we can expect at the important National People's Congress that will meet in May, where President Xi is likely to restate China's economic growth and future direction.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Alvin Tai, Soft Commodity Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence warns that palm oil prices are correlated to oil and explains why. He also gives his view on CPO price direction based on supply-demand conditions and who among the regional planters are in the best position to come out unscathed from the Covid 19 crisis.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the first day of the conditional movement control order, The Morning Run crew goes over what the biggest changes are, as well which individual states are diverging from the federal government's guidelines in order to maintain stricter controls. Also, Bank Negara Malaysia made a clarification on its loan moratoriums which drew much ire on social media over the weekend as well as other top business headlines.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the impact of COVID-19 continues to take grip on the economy, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) has forecasted that 2.4 million Malaysians may lose their jobs. This means we could see unemployment spike to as much as 15%. We speak to Dr. Niaz Asadullah about which groups are more vulnerable to the effects of unemployment than others, as well as what measures the government needs to take in order to cushion this blow.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Despite a population of 95 million people, Vietnam has just under 300 cases of Covid-19. Dr Le Hong Hiep, a Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute explains how the country achieved this feat.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lilianne Fan, Co-Founder & International Director, Geutanyoe Foundation, and Chairperson, Rohingya Working Group, Asia Pacific Refugee Rights Network makes the case for treating Rohingya refugees with more humanity and discusses possible solutions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lilianne Fan, Co-Founder & International Director, Geutanyoe Foundation, and Chairperson, Rohingya Working Group, Asia Pacific Refugee Rights Network makes the case for treating Rohingya refugees with more humanity and discusses possible solutions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tan Cheng Kiat, President of the Malaysian International Chamber of Commerce and Industry (MICCI) says the government should scrap the approval process for businesses to operate as it is taking too long, and just do spot checks.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US GDP in the first quarter of of -4.8%, China's $42b bank-dividend bonanza and a global central bank gold buying frenzy hog the international headlines. The Morning Run crew spill the beans.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Malaysian Bar has called on the government to provide leeway to law firms to operate during the MCO. Earlier this month, de facto law minister Dato’ Takiyuddin Hassan had asked law firms not to reopen during the MCO where all non-essential activities have to be paused. Law firms as a category by itself have not been classified as essential services by the Health Ministry or by MITI. However law services can resume where they are part of certain other sectors that have been permitted to operate by MITI. We speak to Salim for a clearer picture on how the MCO is impacting the legal sector.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Morning Run crew looks at the front pages of the newspapers, and also discusses sectors reopening under the MCO, New Zealand declaring victory over COVID-19 and rollercoaster oil prices.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the glaring absence of Kim Jong Un from the public eye, speculation is rife that the North Korean leader might be ill or worse. Dr. Hoo Chiew-Ping, Senior Lecturer, National University of Malaysia (UKM), discusses.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Should investors be putting their money into debt securities? And what’s the outlook for Malaysia’s bond market as foreign funds pull out from emerging markets, and the potential of a sovereign downgrade? Jesse Liew, Chief Investment Officer for ASEAN Fixed Income, Principal Asset Management discusses these questions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bringing you the morning headlines on Covid-19, SMEs running out of cash, a Deputy Minister being charged in court for breaking MCO rules, and don’t swim near the Singapore coastline.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The lives of the B40 have been most affected by Covid-19 and the subsequent MCO which is now into phase 4. With many unable to work, basic necessities have become a luxury few can afford. To help, the government was supposed to distribute food packages via the social welfare department however there have been some confusion here. For more on this we speak to YB Fahmi for his view on the matter.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Peter Berezin, Chief Global Investment Strategist, BCA Research talks about where he’d put his money now.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the midst of a global pandemic and stalled economy, Malaysia is stuck in limbo thanks to a Perikatan govt that is demonstrably at sea, worsened by a dislodged Pakatan coalition that remains shell-shocked, says Malaysian Insight CEO, Jahabar Sadiq.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Morning Run crew looks at the front pages of the newspapers, and also discusses Thailand's falling tourism, Singapore's COVID-19 infections, central banks meeting this week and Facebook launching a Zoom rival.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In a recent TV interview, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin chose not to comment on politics, preferring to focus on the fight against Covid-19. Wong Chin Huat, political scientist, at Sunway University, tells us what he thinks of this comment as political machinations have produced the politically weakest government Malaysia has ever had. Wong also thinks the opposition needs to step up and do more.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Malaysian property stakeholders are bracing for the unavoidable economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the property sector. Prior to the Movement Control Order (MCO) and the pandemic, property sales for residential and commercial were already slow amid a mismatch between supply and demand although affordable housing was still a growing segment. So how bad will the fallout be for the property sector, and how far off is the light at the end of the tunnel?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The presence of China’s warships in the resource-rich South China Sea is increasingly cause for concern, more so with the absence of America from its waters. Ridzwan Rahmat, Principal Defence Analyst, Jane's by IHS Markit, discusses.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Despite being one of the regions worst hit by the pandemic, there has been a frustrating lack of unity among European Union members in handling the economic fallout from the crisis. Simon Baptist, Global Chief Economist from The Economist Intelligence Unit tells us whether there is going to be a resolution to this.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ahmad Yazid Othman, CEO of the Malay Economic Action Council (MTEM) tells us why he opposes political appointments at GLCs but acknowledges that moving away from it, will be a challenge as this has been practised since our independence. He also weighs in what sectors should be allowed to operate in phase 4 of the MCO as revival of the economy is critical.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With the movement control order extended to mid-May, 2020's Ramadhan month will be unlike any other. Nurliyana Yahaya, Manager at Nielsen Commercial and Thought Leadership joins us in discussing how consumer behaviour has changed amid the festive season during this MCO.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin announced that the MCO will be extended until May 12th. We go through some of the key points of his speech and what does this mean for the country.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The coronavirus outbreak has hit economies around the world hard, and Malaysia is no exception. But with these new parameters, should the Shared Prosperity Vision mooted by the previous government be reconfigured to meet the current circumstances? For some insight, we speak to Nizam Mahshar, CEO of Institut Masa Depan Malaysia, about the SPV2030 plan, and how it can be adapted to help weather the economic crisis particularly for the most vulnerable in society.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The European Commission is floating a 2 trillion-euro plan for economic recovery but will 27 countries agree? Or will the rich Northern states still say no to their poorer Southern neighbors?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With some countries starting to ease their lockdown restrictions, we speak to Miquel Oliu-Barton, Associate Professor, at the Université Paris Dauphine and Bary Pradelski, Associate Member, Oxford-Man Institute at University of Oxford to see if mathematical modeling based on red and green zones is a viable option.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As Singapore struggles with a surge in coronavirus cases, stemming from it foreign worker communities, we ask the question if Malaysia is doing enough to restrict the spread of the virus within our own migrant communities? For insight, we speak to Dr. Tharani Loganathan, Public Health Medicine Specialist at Universiti Malaya's Faculty of Medicine, for her thoughts on migrants' access to healthcare, and other barriers that stop migrant workers from seeking the help they need.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.