Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Heidi Shierholz, President of the Economic Policy Institute, joins the podcast to discuss the ongoing skewing of the income distribution. There’s a lengthy list of reasons why more of the economic pie is going to those in the top of the distribution, from less unionization and lax enforcement of labor laws, but you would be surprised to hear what’s not on the list. You may also be surprised that the conversation ends on an upbeat note. Special guest Heidi Shierholz is the president of the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) in Washington, D.C. Prior to joining EPI, she was the Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Labor during the Obama administration. Throughout her career, Shierholz has provided policymakers and economic commentators with research and analysis on labor market dynamics, labor and employment policy, and the effects of economic policies on low- and middle-income families. She is regularly called upon to testify in congress and her research and commentary on labor and employment policy, inequality, racial and gender disparities in the labor market, worker bargaining power, and other topics have been cited in top broadcast, radio, print, and online news outlets. After receiving her Ph.D. in economics from the University of Michigan, she was an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Toronto in Toronto, Ontario. She has an M.S. in statistics from Iowa State University, and a B.A. in mathematics from Grinnell College in Iowa. Check out some of Heidi Shierholz’s recent write-ups:Workers want unions, but the latest data point to obstacles in their pathImmigrants are not hurting U.S.-born workersMiddle-out economics is good for workers, their families, and the broader economy Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Listeners of Inside Economics have been demanding a podcast on the nation’s debt, and now they have it. At least one side of it. We talk deficits and debt with Paul Sheard, former Chief Economist of S&P Global. To Mark and team’s surprise, Paul explains why he isn’t worried about the nation’s fiscal trajectory. More views on this to come. For more on Paul Sheard's book: Click Here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Inside Economics team dissects yet another upside surprise in the February jobs report and ponders the mixed messages between the payroll and household surveys. Employment is coming in hot but the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in over a year and wage growth cooled. The team theorizes on why the two surveys are so at odds with each other lately. Finally, they each opine on whether the data are leaning more toward a higher risk of recession or “no landing”. Surprisingly, they’re all in agreement.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Amid all the optimism regarding a soft landing for the economy, the Inside Economics team considers what bothers them most about the economy’s near-term prospects. Cris focuses on GDP vs GDI, Marisa on the soft global economy, and Mark on the internals of the labor market. They remain upbeat about the economy, but…. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Inside Economics welcomes back Mark Calabria, the former director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. We discuss the current housing affordability crisis and what policymakers should do to address it, the FHFA’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the risks posed by nonbank mortgage companies. The group also takes up the role of the Federal Home Loan Banks. Plenty of debate, and even some agreement.For more info on Mark CalabriaFor more info on Mark Calabria's book, Shelter from the Storm, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark, Marisa, and Cris take a deep dive into current housing market trends. They consider the demand and supply drivers that are depressing existing home sales and pushing homebuyers towards new construction. Along the way, the team deconstructs mortgage rates and provides its best estimate of the nation's housing deficit. Mark challenges Marisa and Cris to come up with solutions to the housing crisis and wonders if we'll ever experience another sharp increase in foreclosures. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Inside Economics team is joined by CPI guru and colleague Matt Colyar to discuss the bevy of inflation-related data released this week. First the team dissects the Federal Reserve’s CCAR stress test scenarios and laments the perpetually inconvenient timing of their release. Talk turns to the root causes for the inflation of the past few years and why shelter inflation is so stubborn. The team imagines themselves on the FOMC for a day and what they would do with interest rates going forward. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Bill Adams, Chief Economist of Dallas-based Comerica bank, joins the Inside Economics team to assess the economic outlook and consider a range of economic issues from consumer credit to China’s prospects. We also learned what he is most anxious about, and it isn’t the outcome of the Super Bowl. For more info on Bill Adams click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Dante joins the podcast to break down the January employment report. Fitting for Groundhog’s Day, the jobs report delivered an eerily similar upside surprise to what we saw in January 2023. Following the January meeting of the FOMC this week, the team discusses what the Fed is likely to do in light of recent data.To access the 2024 Election Model Whitepaper click here Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Inside Economics team revels in the great economic numbers of the past week. The economy not only avoided a recession in 2023, but it ended the year enjoying robust GDP growth and tame inflation. But there are threats at the start of the new year, including a potential seizing up of the all-important Treasury bond market. Samim Ghamami of the SEC joins the podcast to discuss this threat, its causes and implications, and potential reforms to ensure it doesn’t upend financial markets and the economy. Today’s guest Samim Ghamami is currently an economist at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, where he works with the SEC senior management on the reform of the US Treasury market and several other capital market initiatives. Ghamami is also a senior researcher and an adjunct professor of finance at New York University, a senior researcher at UC Berkeley Center for Risk Management Research and the Department of Economics, and a senior advisor at SOFR Academy. Ghamami has been a senior economist and a senior vice president at Goldman Sachs. He has been an adjunct associate professor of economics at Columbia University. Ghamami has also been an associate director and a senior economist at the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Financial Research, and an economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.Ghamami’s work has broadly focused on the interplay of finance and macroeconomics, and on financial economics and quantitative finance. His work on banking, asset management, risk management, economic policy, financial stability, financial regulation, and central clearing has been presented and discussed at central banks. He has been an advisor to the Bank for International Settlements and worked as an expert with the Financial Stability Board on post-financial crisis reforms in 2016 and 2017. Ghamami also served on the National Science Foundation panel on Financial Mathematics in 2017 and 2018. Ghamami received his Ph.D. in Mathematical Finance and Operations Research from USC in 2009. His publications have appeared in different journals including Management Science, Journal of Applied Probability, Mathematics of Operations Research, Journal of Financial Intermediation, Journal of Credit Risk, Journal of Derivatives, Quantitative Finance, and Journal of Risk. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Robert Dietz, Chief Economist of the National Association of Home Builders, joins Mark Zandi, Marisa DiNatale, and Cristian deRitis to discuss the outlook for mortgage rates, home sales, and construction activity. The team delves into the immigration and demographic trends affecting housing demand along with the 5 L's (Laws, Labor, Land, Lending, and Lumber) limiting homebuilding today. Rob's quoting of Tolstoy catches everyone off guard while the wide-ranging discussion made it difficult for the team to come up with a clever podcast title so we took a cue from Friends. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this wide-ranging podcast, we tackle the CPI inflation report, the mounting threat posed by cyberattacks on the financial system and broader economy, and the regulatory response. Jill Cetina and Lesley Ritter of Moody’s Investor Service and Joe Lyons of BitSight join us with their insights. And we finally learn how to pronounce Matt’s last name.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week’s podcast focuses on the jobs report for December. The usual cast of characters discusses the job catch-up (not ketchup) in government and healthcare, and its implications. Everyone agreed that despite the considerable cross-currents in the numbers, it was a good report. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

John Toohig, head of wholesale trading for Raymond James makes a return appearance on Inside Economics. He last joined us in the wake of the banking crisis this past March, and made the case that the banking system while bowed would not break. He was right. Join us to hear what John is now saying about the system, loan growth and quality, and what it all means for the Fed and economy.For more on John Toohig, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In the last podcast before the holidays, Inside Economics chats with Carl Tannenbaum, Chief Economist of Northern Trust about the economy, financial system, Fed and forecasting. The group took as a good omen that they had a Tannenbaum and a DiNatale on the podcast just before Christmas (you may need to Google the names). Not that they attribute their forecasting process to the use of such signs. For more on Carl Tannenbaum click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The U.S. economy surprised to the upside in 2023 as consumers shrugged off a number of headwinds. With inflation abating and the Federal Reserve facing less pressure to hike interest rates, recession risks are fading. But they can’t be fully discounted given high interest rates, geopolitical turmoil, declining savings, and political uncertainty. Slower growth with somewhat higher unemployment is the most likely outcome. Call it a slowcession. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Michael Strain, resident scholar and the director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) returns to the podcast to discuss the Fed’s big pivot towards rate cuts early next year and the resulting monster rally in stocks and bonds. The discussion then turns to what ails the collective psyche. Think rents and the price of ramen. For mor information on Michael Strain click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark Donovan founder of the Denver Basic Income Project joins Inside Economics to discuss some early results from a guaranteed income program that provides direct cash assistance to unhoused individuals without conditions. Mark responds to a range of criticisms often levied around such efforts. And you don’t want to miss how Tesla is connected to the start of the project’s funding. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Inside Economics discusses the December jobs report, which left Mark feeling “giddy”, Cris “cheerful”, Dante “happy”, and Marisa “great”. The team considers the jobs numbers in the context of other recent labor market indicators which show a resilient but moderating job market. And they end with an assessment of whether the recently boomy labor supply and strong productivity growth are sustainable.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Chris Mayer, Professor of Real Estate Economics at Columbia University and CEO of Longbridge Financial, joins Mark, Marisa, and Cris to discuss reverse mortgages and the state of the residential real estate market. While the single-family market may tread water, multifamily may be in for a serious correction. Mark wonders if we can avoid the fallout from this economic meteor. For more about Christopher Mayer, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Inside Economics considers the economy’s performance and prospects through the prism of the electric utility industry with the Chief Economist of American Electric Power, Dan White. It was great to catch up with Dan, a former colleague, and get his insight on how American households and businesses are doing. He also ponders the transition to green energy. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Fred Hochberg, Fmr. Chairman & President of the Export–Import Bank of the United States and author of Trade Is Not a Four-Letter Word: How Six Everyday Products Make the Case for Trade, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss all things related to global trade. The discussion takes up the U.S.-China relationship, the future of globalization, and how trade policy may change after the 2024 election. Marisa’s visit to Disneyland is a (largely irrelevant but entertaining) theme throughout. For more information on Fred Hochberg and his book click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Teresa Bazemore, CEO of the San Francisco Federal Home Loan Bank, joins the podcast to discuss the nation's reeling housing market, and the role of the FHLB system. There's a lot to talk about as Teresa weighs recent criticism of the FHLBs in the wake of the banking crisis earlier this year, and the recent report from the FHLBs' regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, proposing reforms to the system.For more information about Teresa Bazemore click hereMoody's Papers discussed in this episode click here and hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Dante joins the podcast to break down the October employment report. With job growth moderating and the unemployment rate edging higher, the Fed’s fight against inflation should get a little bit easier. The team also takes a few listener questions about the definition of the unemployment rate and what impact softening rents will have on single-family housing. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The inside Economics team takes up the gangbuster GDP growth in the third quarter. Marisa walks the group though the GDP identity C+I+G+net exports and concludes that while the report overstates the case, it makes a strong case that the economy is on solid ground. Cris gives Marisa an A+ for her exposition. Good thing given their history. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark, Cris and Marisa welcome colleague David Fieldhouse to Inside Economics to talk about the run up in long-term bond yields and mortgage rates, as well as the outlook for the consumer. The team discusses why the 10-year yield has breached 5% for the first time since before the GFC and what it might mean for the economy if rates stay higher for longer. They also consider the possibility of the yield curve reverting into positive territory soon. Mark tries to help Cris overcome his fears of a consumer-led recession and the team considers what a Phillies World Series win might mean for the economy. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Inflation was front and center in this week’s podcast. Mark and Marisa (yes, she’s back and winning the stats game again) hosted a wonderful cast of colleagues to talk over the September CPI report, the European inflation experience, which is similar to that here in the U.S., and given recent grim events in the Middle East, energy prices. The bottom line is inflation continues to head in the right direction, but not in a straight line. Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Dante joins Cris and Mark to digest the September jobs report. The outsized job gain during the month was surprising, but after Dante’s masterful dissection of the data, the group agrees there is a lot to like in the report. After the stats game, they discussion turns to the recent surge in long-term interest rates and how big a threat it poses to the economy.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The fast approaching federal government shutdown is top of mind on this week’s podcast. Mark and Cris consider how the shutdown may play out and the economic consequences. Two other colleagues, Steve Cochrane and Stefan Angrick, then join the conversation to assess the all important Chinese and Japanese economies. Are the economic fortunes of these two massive economies flip-flopping?For China and Japan: Facing History, a book outlining the strained historical relationship between these two countries, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Inside Economics welcomes Rob Fauber, President and CEO of Moody’s Corporation to the podcast. He discusses his concept of exponential risk and the opportunities and challenges of using AI. Rob shares what it's like to lead a global firm and answers a few get-to-know-you questions from Mark, Cris and Marisa. But before the conversation with Rob, the team discusses how worried they are about various economic threats and their potential impact on the macroeconomic economy. Guest: Rob Fauber, President & CEO of Moody’s CorporationFor more insight into the era of exponential risk, click here.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The looming UAW strike is top of mind, and no one better to talk to about how it may play out and what it means for the economy than Jonathan Smoke of COX Automotive and our own vehicle industry expert, Mike Brisson. Bernard Yaros also joins the podcast to talk about the consumer inflation report. Mark and Cris agree that while the current economic numbers look good, there’s plenty to worry about.For more from Jonathan Smoke, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Given the strong counter narratives regarding the impact of artificial intelligence on the economy – from bright optimism that AI will significantly lift productivity growth and wealth to dark pessimism that it will lead to a dystopic increase in unemployment and cybercrime – we asked Martin Fleming to sort it out. And the former chief economist of IBM and current author and Chief Revenue Scientist at Varicent does just that. And Mark does a bit of advertising along the way.For more about Martin Fleming, click hereFor more on Martin Fleming's book, Breakthrough: A Growth Revolution, click hereTo participate in the weekly Survey of Business Confidence, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The August jobs report couldn’t have been much better. Dante and Cris called it a good report, while Mark and Marisa thought it was a VERY good report. Either way, the report has soft landing written all over it. In standing with the good cheer over the jobs numbers, the group recounted their favorite music. Some surprises there.For the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The economy is performing about as well as could be expected. Growth is resilient, inflation is moderating, and unemployment is low and stable. It appears increasingly likely the economy will avoid a recession. But having said this, the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes are weighing heavily on the financial system and economy. To avoid a recession, nothing else can go wrong. In this podcast, Mark, Cris and team consider what could go wrong. For the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Despite the light week of economic data, there was lots going in in the economy to discuss for the Inside Economics team, including the runup in 10-year Treasury yields and fixed mortgage rates. Noted investment banker Chris Whalen then joins the conversation to talk about the banking system, its’ under significant pressure, the independent mortgage banks, a shakeout is underway, and the Fed and other regulators, he’s not a fan.For more on Chris Whalen, click hereFor the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Inside Economics team dissects the July report on consumer price inflation and concludes that inflation is on track to be back to the Fed’s inflation target by this time next year. Well, OK, Cris thought more likely the end of next year. The discussion then turned to modest fallout from the banking crisis earlier this year (at least so far) and Fed policy with University of Maryland economics professor Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan.For more from Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, click hereFor the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It’s jobs Friday, and Mark, Cris and Dante discuss the near perfect (Dante’s description) July employment report. Job growth remains strong, but it is moderating, and should help convince the Federal Reserve that its interest rates hikes are over. The group identified a few nits in the numbers, but the report was so good Cris lowered his odds the economy will suffer a recession in the coming year. For the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark, Cris and Marisa (yes, she is back) welcome Matt Robison of the Beyond Politics podcast to talk policy and politics. The discussion ranges from the risk of a government shutdown and Bidenomics to a consideration of whether the nation’s politics are as fractured as they seem and who is going to be the next President. It goes without saying there was also a fulsome conversation about this past week’s economic data - could the numbers have been any better? Even “supercore” inflation was up just 0.2% month over month and 4.2% year over year in June.For more from Matt Robison, click hereFor the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark and Cris take stock of the economy’s performance so far this year, and consider what surprised them (think the job market), what they got right (think weaker house prices), and what they got wrong (think the banking crisis). They also look forward and discuss what people are overly considered about, and what they should be more worried about. Where’s Marisa?For the full transcript, click here.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The stellar June CPI inflation report is top of mind for Mark, Cris and Bernard. The report arguably couldn’t have been better, as the conversation makes clear. The podcast then turns to a discussion of whether the worst is over for the troubled single family housing market with Lance Lambert, the real estate editor for Fortune. No one has a better pulse of the market than Lance.For more on Lance Lambert, click here or follow him on twitter @NewsLambertFor the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark, Cris & Marisa are joined by Jobs Day regular Dante DeAntonio to discuss the June employment report. Job growth is slowing to script but wage growth is still stubbornly high. The group discusses full employment, the probabilities of recession in the next year and what this all means for the Fed’s upcoming meetings.For the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Stephen Roach, Senior Fellow at the China Center of Yale Law School, discusses China’s near and longer-term economic prospects with Mark, Cris and Marisa. Steve explains why he has evolved from a bull to a bear on China’s economy, why the critical relationship between China and the U.S. has gone sideways, and how to get the relationship moving in a positive direction.For more on Stephen Roach, click hereFor more information on Stephen Roach's book, Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives, click hereFor the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark, Cris and Marisa weigh whether or not to change the forecast for the Fed funds rate and dig deep to play the statistics game. Later they are joined by Professor Glenn Mueller of the University of Denver to talk all things commercial real estate. Professor Mueller ranks the segments of the CRE market from worst to best performing and explains why the legalization of marijuana has disrupted the retail market. For more on Glenn Mueller, click hereFor the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Inside Economics team takes shelter from a tornado (true story), and Mark Calabria, senior advisor to the Cato Institute and former director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, describes the FHFA’s efforts to provide shelter to the housing and mortgage finance markets during the pandemic. His new book “Shelter from the Storm,” is a fascinating telling of that difficult period.For more on Mark Calabria, click here.For more information on Mark Calabria's book "Shelter from the Storm," click here.For the full transcript, click here.Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Amid mounting geopolitical tensions over the independence of Taiwan, Mark and team consider various scenarios regarding how this is ultimately resolved. China appears to be taking a long-term perspective in its goal to unify Taiwan with the mainland, and thus the most likely scenario assumes the current uncomfortable, but peaceful status quo. But much darker scenarios can’t be ruled out.For the full report on the China-Taiwan Scenarios, click here.For the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The group dives deep into the jobs report for May. They dissect the cross-currents in the numbers, and consider what the report means for financial markets, monetary policy and the macroeconomy. The economic fallout of the legislative deal to end the debt limit drama, including the end of the student loan payment moratorium, are also part of the discussion. And of course there is the statistics game.For the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ben Harris, former Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, summarizes the latest proposal for raising the debt ceiling. An acceptable deal seems to be within reach but remains politically uncertain even as the x-date draws near. What are the alternatives if no deal is reached? And what could be the consequences for bondholders, Social Security recipients, and other stakeholders? Ben joins Mark and Cris in a round of the Inside Economics Statistics Game and provides his views on the future of retirement financing.For more on Ben Harris, click hereFor the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Richard Branch, Chief Economist for Dodge Data & Analytics, joins the podcast to share his insights on all things construction. Construction is the most interest rate sensitive sector of the economy, yet despite the near unprecedented tightening in monetary policy, it is holding its’ own. What gives? The group also digs deep into the different parts of the construction sector, from the struggling office market to the surge in public infrastructure.For more on Richard Branch, click here.For the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mark and team do a deep dive into the inflation numbers and consider prospects that inflation will continue to moderate. After the statistics game, they turn to their latest research considering the economic fallout of what could happen if lawmakers fail to increase the debt limit in time. It isn’t pretty.For more on the debt limit breach scenarios, click here.For the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Another jobs Friday, another strong jobs report. Dante DeAntonio joins the crew to break down the employment numbers and what they mean for the near-term outlook. The team also discusses the recent banking crisis, the looming debt limit x-date, and the most likely outcomes for both. And is someone using ChatGPT to cheat at the statistics game?For the full transcript, click hereFollow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you.  To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.