Moody’s Talks - Global Economy Unwrapped

Andrew, Barbara, and Denise join Gaurav for an in-depth exploration of the multifaceted Russia-Ukraine conflict, including potential peace terms and shifting scenarios. They assess the unexpected resilience of the Russian economy amid sanctions and growing internal challenges. The team also examines global energy markets, focusing on Russian oil flows to India and China, Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, and the broader feasibility of U.S. energy exports. They then turn to America’s defence strategy and the implications for Europe, before ending with thoughts on the potential for the economic reconstruction of both countries. Bringing this war to an end on terms that are fair for Ukraine and ensuring an enduring peace is much easier said than done, but surely worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize? Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and Andrew welcome Suren Vardanyan and Charlie Houston to the podcast to discuss the Middle East. The region remains relatively insulated from U.S. tariffs and has avoided the worst effects of recent global shocks. The team breaks down the shifting role of hydrocarbon exports and revenues, debates evolving tail risks in geopolitics, and discusses how significant investments in AI and future technologies could fundamentally change the key drivers of these economies. Click here to Read Gaurav Ganguly and Barbara Teixeira Araujo's Economic View paper Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav is joined by Stefan, Denise, Andrew, and Kamil for a bumper episode on the global fallout from the latest wave U.S. tariffs and deals. The team debates whether this is the end of globalization as we know it or just a messy new chapter. From the EU’s apparent capitulation and Switzerland’s chocolate woes to Japan’s plan B and Southeast Asia’s tightrope walk, the team breaks down the implications for growth, investment, and global trade, and why financial markets still seem oddly calm. Are tariffs now a general-purpose economic weapon for the U.S.? And will European and Asian economies ever fight back, or are we all just frogs in slowly boiling water?For deeper insights from the Moody’s Analytics research team, watch the latest on-demand webinar, Japan’s Economic Outlook: One Step Forward, Two Steps Back. Available now.Here is the link: https://events.moodys.com/mc68475-wbn-2025-map27519-japan-economic-outlook-q3 Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

David Muir joins Gaurav and Andrew for another U.K. special. The U.K. increasingly appears to have done relatively well in recent trade negotiations with the U.S., but the team struggle to find much else to be cheerful about, with the second half of 2025 still likely to bring weak growth, stubborn inflation and higher taxes. The team debate whether further rate cuts by the Bank of England will brighten the mood, but David warns that the pace of easing is likely to remain gradual. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Denise, and Stefan dissect the shock loss of the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition in Japan’s upper house elections. Cost-of-living woes and anti-foreign rhetoric dominated the campaign. So, is Japan catching the populism bug for good? Then it’s on to the U.S. trade deal blitz across Asia, from Tokyo to Manila to Hanoi. Equity markets are cheering, but are these deals anything more than smoke and mirrors? Finally, the team tackles the big question: is the trade chaos behind us, or just getting started? Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

After another flurry of U.S. tariff announcements, Gaurav and team unpack what it all means for Europe. As the clock ticks toward the new August 1 deadline, the prospect of an EU-U.S. deal looks touch-and-go, while the team also debate whether the EU is more likely to try and fight higher U.S. tariffs with retaliatory measures of its own. Although recent data suggest European economies have held up surprisingly well amid ongoing trade tensions, the downside risks appear to be rising once again. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hot on the heels of President Trump’s latest tariff salvos, Stefan, Katrina and Denise break down the dizzying hikes and what they spell for Asia’s export-driven economies. No matter where tariffs eventually settle, the pain will ripple through the region. With most governments keeping their fiscal purse strings tight, central banks will be left holding the bag to keep economies afloat. And as the team half-jokes about signing up for social networks just to keep pace, one thing’s clear: this trade war is far from over, and the damage is adding up fast. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and the team are joined by Ben Acton-Bond for a special episode on Germany. Ben explains how the German economy is likely to fare in the face of higher U.S. tariffs, amid mixed signals from the recent data. The team debates whether Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s plans to ramp up spending on infrastructure and defense will lift Germany out of its years-long slump or if a recession is still a significant risk, while Gaurav takes the opportunity to show off his extensive German vocabulary. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Steve, Katrina and Gaurav welcome Karl Godderis, the CEO of EUROCHAM in Malaysia for an in-depth conversation about the expanding trade relationship between the EU and Southeast Asia. While tariffs are not an issue, both sides must face the EU’s regulatory environment. Katrina and Gaurav also say goodbye and thanks to Steve on the eve of his retirement. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Kamil, and Barbara return for a timely discussion on the rising risks of recession in Europe. They begin by unpacking four major threats currently weighing on the region’s outlook. Gaurav opens with an analysis of the Israel-Iran conflict and its potential economic spillovers, including developments in oil markets. Kamil follows with a look at the implications of an escalating trade war, while Barbara explores the growing challenge of global fragmentation. The trio also touches on the broader theme of global financial instability and its role in shaping downside risks.In the final segment, the conversation turns to how they assess the probability of a European recession. While their views differ slightly, all agree that the outlook has grown increasingly fragile, with recession risks at even odds at best. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Fresh off the heels of a U.S.-China trade truce reached in London, Ambassador Kurt Tong , Managing Partner at The Asia Group joins the Asia podcast crew. The team discusses the implications of the chaotic U.S. policy and how China and the broader region are readjusting to the dramatic shifts. Steve and Kurt sneak in some baseball references. Go Phillies!Guest: Kurt Tong, Managing Partner at The Asia GroupRead more from Kurt Tong here Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

With new euro zone data releases, and an ECB decision to boot, there is plenty to talk about. Gaurav and team roll up their sleeves and do what they do best: analyze the numbers. Gaurav and Kamil kick off with a deep dive into our economic forecasts for Europe, unpacking the key assumptions and highlighting the downgrades made since Donald Trump’s election as U.S. President. They examine the role of tariffs, uncertainty, and other contributing factors, while also acknowledging the huge variations across European countries. The team then turns to the latest data and explores how significantly momentum has been boosted by stockpiling ahead of U.S. tariffs. Finally, the group reacts to the latest euro zone inflation data and the ECB’s recent rate decision. Has the central bank reached the end of its easing cycle—or is there more to come? Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Steve and Stefan discuss with their colleague Jesse Rogers the complex role of China in the Mexican economy and in Mexico’s exports to the U.S. Jesse shares his research showing China’s important role in Mexico’s domestic economy, particularly for autos, transportation and other infrastructure-related goods. But China plays less of a part in Mexico’s U.S.-bound export trade, unlike, say, in Vietnam, where Chinese and other foreign firms assemble goods for export to the U.S. market. Steve and Stefan are following closely the Taiwan economy, one of the strongest in Asia right now. And Jesse suggests some alternatives to Bad Bunny if one is into salsa and Latin music. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav, Barbara and Kamil welcome David Muir as they discuss the latest U.K. economic data and the potential economic benefits of the three trade deals recently signed by the U.K. government. While the U.K.-U.S. deal looks quite narrow, the trade agreement with India is much broader in scope and might yield some long-term benefits. Crucially, the EU-U.K. deal isn’t a game changer—but it does represent a partial reset in economic relations and a positive step in the right direction. Unfortunately, none of the three deals will massively boost the U.K. economy, nor help avoid tax rises in the autumn. In the second half of the episode, the team moves on to talk about the prospects for a U.S.-EU deal, and the conclusion is that it’s still difficult, even though it looks more plausible now than it did in early April. Does this mean that reciprocal tariffs take effect in July, or that the EU will have no choice but to retaliate against U.S. tariffs? Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hot on the heels of the U.S.-China tariff truce, the team chat about all things trade. The episode kicks off with a trip down memory lane, as Steve tries to place the current chaos in the history of economic moments-in-time. Harry then gives the lay of the land following the weekend’s negotiations, and Katrina and Stefan explore signs of rerouting in the latest export data from China. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Gaurav and the team discuss the newly signed U.S.-U.K. trade deal and whether the de-escalation in global trade tensions will continue. The conversation then turns to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Andrew is skeptical that the recent U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal will bring a lasting ceasefire any closer, Gaurav and Barbara take stock of Europe’s energy security, while Kamil weighs in on the economic and fiscal impact of higher European defense spending. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

With the Australian election upon us, David Robertson, Chief Economist at Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, joins the team to discuss the outlook. Productivity is front of mind, having languished for the last few years amid only timid economic reforms; a clear-cut election victory could provide the political capital to change that. Elsewhere, the RBA’s priorities are shifting from taming inflation to supporting growth. With that in mind, David is confident the board will cut in May. How much more easing we get will depend on the damage President Trump’s tariffs do to the global and local economies. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

David Muir joins Gaurav and Andrew for a deep dive into the UK. The conversation takes a fiscal turn very quickly as the three dissect public finances and ponder the potential for tax rises in coming years. Trump tariffs add to the problem as the UK will not be able to rely on tailwinds from the global economy. The possibility of meeting Labour’s manifesto pledge of achieving the fastest rate of growth in the G7 feels very low. David and Andrew think that income and corporate tax rises will be hard to avoid in coming years, and Gaurav immediately brings up the Beatles. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This bonus episode is a recent webinar led by our Chief Economist, Mark Zandi. It includes many colleagues on the Moody’s Analytics economics team from around the world. The webinar reviews the many U.S. and global ramifications of the emerging U.S. tariff policy. This conversation features expert input from leading economists, including Mark Zandi, Cris deRitis, Steve Cochrane, Gaurav Ganguly, Marisa DiNatale, Dante DeAntonio, Mark Hopkins, Alfredo Coutino, and Justin Begley. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Steve and Stefan speak one-on-one about their expectations as trade negotiations ramp up between the U.S. and many of its Asia-Pacific trading partners. So far, however, the U.S. and China are not on speaking terms; Asian financial markets have stumbled, and currencies of Asia’s developing economies have depreciated against the dollar. There is much uncertainty about the near term, but Steve and Stefan express some optimism for the long-term resilience of the APAC economies. Click here to read more on the paper written by Katrina and Stefan Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Against a rapidly evolving policy backdrop, Gaurav and the team attempt to unpack the implications of the U.S. “Liberation Day” tariffs on the European economy. Kamil sets out why the hit to euro zone growth from the initially announced tariffs could be bad, but not necessarily catastrophic. But regardless of the exact path of U.S. tariffs, the team agrees that the lasting impact on confidence and investment suggests recession risks have increased. The team also discuss how the EU could negotiate a deal to remove tariffs or retaliate with duties of its own, and why the EU may be wary of taking its Anti Coercion Instrument ‘bazooka’ out of the closet. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Moody’s Analytics team welcomed their colleague and fellow economist Sarah Tan to share their thoughts on the so-called Liberation Day tariffs only hours after they were announced. Tariffs are broader and more aggressive than anticipated, with Asia’s export-dependent economies in the firing line. Steve led with his usual optimism, but Katrina and Sarah persuaded that Beijing’s stimulus would be insufficient to insulate China from exports coming under siege. For related research on Tariffs and the Asia-Pacific economy, click the links belowAsia-Pacific Economies Brace for More Tariffs and More TroubleNavigating Trump TurbulenceAPAC Economic Outlook: Facing the Trade WindsChina Chartbook: Another Plan to Boost Consumption Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

As the European economy faces yet another turbulent period, Gaurav Ganguly hosts Andrew Hunter, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, and Kamil Kovar in a riveting discussion on the cyclical and structural issues confronting the continent and whether it can overcome these obstacles. The team delves into the recurring crises that Europe has faced, from the pandemic to the invasion of Ukraine, and how these events have dealt a blow to growth. Europe is still striving to recover, and just as signs of a rebound were emerging, policy uncertainty related to Trump's tariffs now threatens to derail the economy once again, raising recession risks. Barbara shares her insights on structural challenges, particularly focusing on Germany's economic woes and the impact of high energy costs. Andrew highlights the stark differences in growth rates across European countries, while Kamil explores labour market dynamics, the rise in savings rates, and their implications for consumer spending. The team also praises Europe’s resilience and ability to come together during a crisis to bail out the economy. Tune in to hear the team's perspectives on whether Europe can overcome the current challenges and what the future holds for the euro zone economy. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Moody’s Analytics economists Gaurav Ganguly and Steve Cochrane welcomed their colleagues Alfredo Coutino, Juan Pablo Fuentes and Jesse Rogers for a review of the Latin American economy. The conversation provides a general economic overview and a more in-depth analysis of the three largest economies: Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. They discussed the economic outlook, potential risks, the role of China in the region and the prospects and limitations of the oil sector. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

As the European Commission unveils its ReArm EU plan, Barbara Teixeira Araujo joins Andrew, Kamil, and Gaurav in trying to unpack the real implications of this big-bucks €800 billion package. The main question that remains unanswered is, “Is this really Europe’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment?” Barbara seems unconvinced, and the team raises some key questions about the feasibility of the plan, ranging from the lack of fiscal space to the rise in government yields, the risk this poses to market stability, and the potential crowding out of private investment. On a brighter note, Kamil welcomes the German government’s U-turn on fiscal policy, which he thinks represents a seismic shift for Europe. At the end, the team dwells on the probability of the euro dethroning the dollar as the global reserve currency (spoiler alert: not very high!). Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

As China's top officials gather for the annual Two Sessions in Beijing, we discuss the challenges facing China’s economy, its goals for the year and the parallels to Japan’s stagnation through the 1990s. We also take stock of the latest tariff announcements and give a crack at guessing where they’ll end this year. To listen to the Demographics Are Not Destiny episode, click here Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Andrew Hunter and Kamil Kovar, both Senior EMEA Economists at Moody’s Analytics, join Gaurav Ganguly as The Global Economy Unwrapped moves its focus to Europe. The team fact-check two of the U.S.’s key complaints: the EU’s trade position with the U.S. and Europe’s low defense spending. They conclude that the complaints are largely unreasonable on both fronts, but this does not mean that the EU will get off lightly. Kamil explains that the EU could easily provide the funds to support the war effort in Ukraine, while Andrew and Gaurav debate whether another crisis would be good for the EU.Related Research: Gaurav Ganguly’s The New Realpolitik. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We introduce our new title, Global Economy Unwrapped, where we will delve into more global topics starting with today’s episode. Hosts Steve Cochrane, Katrina Ell, and Gaurav Ganguly are joined by Moody’s Analytics Deputy Chief Economist Cris deRitis to discuss how President Trump is shaking up the status quo and bringing anxiety and uncertainty to the global economy. They explore how uncertainty is manifesting in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index gets a mention, Gaurav sneaks in an economist joke, and Cris can’t hold back his competitive nature.To access Gaurav's piece Uncertain Times, click hereTo learn more about the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, click here Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It’s been an eventful two weeks since our last episode. We kick things off with a recap of what’s happened and a deep dive into the latest industrial production trends across the region and around the world. The conversation quickly turns to U.S. tariffs on China. Are there more to come? What can we glean from China's response? And how will tariffs shake up the manufacturing landscape? Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Buckle up as we delve into the global car market. Joined by our auto market gurus Mike Brisson and Shannon Nicoll, the team explores the twists and turns of supply chain challenges, the accelerating rise of China as an automotive powerhouse, and the speed bumps of tariffs and trade barriers. The conversation is sure to rev your economic engines. To read more on this topic: Australia Fourth-Quarter Used-Vehicle Price Report: A Bump in the Road Auto Prices: Upward Momentum Continues Through Year’s End Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The team runs through the Asia-Pacific outlook for 2025, highlighting some of the risks flying under the radar. Harry hopes that Beijing can ‘crowbar’ household wallets open as policymakers look to counter the impacts of looming tariffs. Meanwhile, Katrina is worried about the tight Aussie labor market, Steve is optimistic about the region’s prospects this year, and Stefan manages to sneak in an Austin Powers reference. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Steve, Stefan and Harry discuss the critical role of semiconductors in Asia’s economy, driving investment in Taiwan and South Korea with some spinoffs in Southeast Asia. Decoupling and reshoring policies in the U.S., Europe, Japan and China, however, will complicate supply chains and shift investment elsewhere. Talent retention will be key to Asia’s future role in the industry. With the team spread across various global locations, so too vary their holiday plans from Australia’s beaches to a KFC Christmas dinner in Japan. Read more about the papers that were mentioned here: Why Chipmakers Are in No Rush to Leave Asia, China Chartbook: Policy Pivot, Developed Asia Outlook 2025: Diverging Fortunes Asia's Economy Unwrapped team would like to wish you a happy holiday. We will return with new episodes January 14th! Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The team welcomes their colleague Dave Chia to help us unwrap the economic implications of Korea's recent political drama. Although they seem limited at the moment, political change could be on the horizon. Thus, fiscal and foreign policy may shift with the political upheaval at home, compounding the already rising global uncertainties. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this week's episode, we delve into President-elect Trump's latest tariff announcement. We explore the economic ramifications, the ripple effects on global trade relationships, and what it might tell us about future tariffs. Steve and Harry go back and forth (and not just on the squash court) discussing how China might respond. Meanwhile, Katrina doesn’t miss a (drum) beat, highlighting the uncertainty tariffs stir up for businesses. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Additional tariffs could hit Asia hard, particularly in China. The team unwraps the multiple effects on Asia of President-elect Trump’s policy proposals. Even if new tariffs on trade with other economies in Asia are modest, none will escape the growth, inflation and supply-chain impacts. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The team welcomes Brendan La Cerda, a Moody’s Analytics colleague and U.S. fiscal policy expert, to unpack the implications of a Trump or Harris victory. The divergent outcomes for Asia are significant in this too-close-to-call race. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The team welcome their colleague Heron Lim to discuss all things Hong Kong, including the implications of China’s plethora of stimulus announcements. Also in the spotlight are China’s poor company profits, Hong Kong’s housing market and fed rate cuts. Steve finally goes first with “what’s your stat” …and it’s a doozy. Today's Guest: Heron Lim, Moody's Analytics Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this episode, the team dives into the heart of China's latest economic stimulus policies. Harry is optimistic that this time is different, and households are finally getting direct support. Katrina, however, leads with her usual pessimism but tries to offset the negativity with a bad economist joke. Join us as we dissect whether China's new economic measures mark a genuine turning point or if caution should still prevail.For more from the Moody’s Analytics team take a free trial to the Economic View. Related research:https://www.economy.com/economicview/analysis/408914/AsiaPacific-Weekly-Highlights-and-Preview-4-October-2024https://www.economy.com/economicview/analysis/408913/China-Chartbook-PMIs-Profits-and-Promises-of-Support Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Southeast Asia enjoyed resilience during the tightening cycle of monetary policy, but economy-specific differences remain critical. Moody’s economist and Southeast Asia expert Denise Cheok joins the team to delve into the details. Currency appreciation, surprise rate cuts, and the upcoming U.S. election keep the team on their toes. Steve is optimistic that inflation is “whipped.”Today's Guest: Denise Cheok, Moody's Analytics Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Steve, Stefan and Harry jump into the everchanging world of global trade. The team explore recent trends in Asia, untangling the region’s interwoven supply chains and taking a deep dive into its diverse trade drivers. Looking to the future, the team give their best guess for how trade will evolve in an increasingly complex political environment. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Steve, Stefan and Harry are joined by Moody’s Analytics New Zealand economist Shannon Nicoll to discuss all the happenings in the Kiwi and Aussie economies. Hot on the heels of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting interest rates, the team explores what it means for the Kiwi economy and if there are lessons for the Reserve Bank of Australia across the ditch. Plus, the team examines how Australia’s tax cuts and cost-of-living supports threaten to stretch inflation's tail, pushing the prospect of rate cuts into next year.Today's Guest: Shannon Nicoll, Moody's Analytics Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this Olympic-sized episode, Steve, Katrina, Stefan, and Harry, along with Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi, tackle an eventful week in global markets. Katrina’s hopes for the podcast to come in under world record time are dashed as Mark and Stefan lead a marathon discussion on the complexities of yen carry trades and recent weak U.S. jobs data. As they come around the final bend, the team put a spotlight on the high-stakes U.S. election, try to win gold for snarky comments and setup round two to discuss the latest hurdles in China’s economy. Access Mark Zandi’s Assessing the Macroeconomic Consequences of Harris vs. Trump special study here: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=279dfa9e-8dde-4f3f-9954-f24a747730a7&app=eccafileFollow real-time coverage of global indicators, events, and trends on Economic View at https://www.economy.com/economicview/ Economic View provides real-time and in-depth macroeconomic analysis of the US and global economies. The service combines trusted analysis and award-winning forecasts from Moody's Analytics economists, with economic, demographic and financial data from multiple sources. Our comprehensive service enables users to quickly grasp the impact of economic events and trends. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Katrina Ell struggles to get “cuts” into her vocabulary as she discusses with Moody’s Analytics colleagues Steve Cochrane and Stefan Angrick the outlook in APAC for interest rate cuts, which are likely by the end of this year. Timing will depend on the U.S. Fed’s rate path, the struggle to contain sticky inflation, and volatility of foreign exchange rates. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Global trade is on the mend, but it’s not all smooth sailing. The economic impacts of trade in Asia are being reshaped by demand for IT products and China’s massive manufacturing push. For China, rising tariffs put its trade outlook “under the pump.” In this context, Steve, Stefan and Harry unwrap the emerging trade patterns for tech-based industries, commodities, and the intermediate goods that shape new emerging supply chains. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

A declining population and labor force does not necessarily spell doom for economies in Asia. But some deft policy making will be needed to ensure productivity growth and adequate investment to maintain economic growth. Steve and the team discuss with Stefan the research he has done on this topic relating to Japan and China. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Is China putting all its eggs in one basket with its manufacturing led recovery? Households are struggling as property market moves south and youth unemployment remains painfully high. Steve is the pessimist of the group, while Harry and Katrina are more hopeful the third plenum in July will be “chockers” with reforms. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Asia-Pacific economy has accelerated so far this year from a weak fourth quarter. But inflation is improving inconsistently across the region. And in fact, two central banks have raised interest rates recently. In this environment, who is an optimist and who is a pessimist? Steve and Katrina take one side as Stefan and Harry disagree. Questions or Comments, please email us at [email protected]. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.