Moody's Talks - Focus on Finance

Steve Tu discusses FedNow, a new US digital payments system, and why it could exacerbate deposit flight risk for banks. Farooq Khan explains the risks of higher interest rates for UK mortgage lenders.Speakers: Stephen Tu, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Farooq Khan, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Myles Neligan, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Banks – North America: FedNow launch may lower transaction costs, but exacerbate funding risks for banksAsset and customer relations risks intensify for UK lenders as rates keep rising

Moody’s analysts David Burger, Mark Wasden and Neal Epstein explain how differences in structure and asset risk give rise to divergent credit profiles among the three investment vehicles.Speakers: David Burger, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Mark Wasden, Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors Service; Neal Epstein, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Aaron Johnson, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Private Credit – Cross Region: Middle-market CLOs, BDCs and closed-end funds: structures lead to divergent credit risks

Moody's Marc Pinto talks to Guggenheim Partners Investment Management’s Anne Walsh about big risks – and opportunities – for insurers, asset managers and institutional investors.Speakers: Marc Pinto, Managing Director, Moody’s Investors Service; Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer, Guggenheim Partners Investment ManagementHost: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Life Insurance – US: Commercial real estate downturn could weaken portfolio asset qualityUS life insurers have strong capital levels heading into uncertain economic environmentProperty & Casualty Insurance – Global: Cyber insurance market stabilizes as profitability improves

US life insurers have significant commercial real estate exposure, mitigated by a low share of holdings in office properties and high share of investments in senior investment-grade fixed income.Speakers: Evelyn Ocas Salazar, AVP-Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Manoj Jethani, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Life Insurance – US: Commercial real estate downturn could weaken portfolio asset quality

Vladlen Kuznetsov explains why banks in emerging markets are exposed to environmental risks, and Laline Carvalho-Neff discusses global reinsurers' strong first-quarter results.Speakers: Vladlen Kuznetsov, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Laline Carvalho-Neff, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Myles Neligan, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Governance and external support mitigate environmental and social risks for banks in emerging marketsReinsurance – US & Bermuda: Everest, RenaissanceRe, AXIS Capital, Arch: Strong Q1 results, pricing boost 2023 prospects

In this episode, we discuss China’s stabilizing property sales and improving funding conditions.Then at 9:00, we look at Chinese insurers’ and banks’ exposure to the country’s property sector.Guests: Kelly Chen from the Corporate Finance Group of Moody’s Investors Service, and Qian Zhu and Yulia Wan from the Financial Institutions Group. Host and Segment Leads: Tania Hall, Livia Yap and Danielle Reed from the Research team at Moody’s Investors Service. To read more on this topic, visit the Behind the Bonds and Focus on Finance pages on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). Related Research:Chinese property market weakness will persist in 2023, dragging on credit quality in multiple sectorsFAQ about mortgage prepayment to Chinese banksFAQ on Chinese insurers' exposure to the property sector

Jerome Cheng and Tengfu Li discuss how China’s economic rebound will support residential mortgage-backed securities and a handful of Asia-Pacific banking systems with close ties to the country. Speakers: Tengfu Li, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Jerome Cheng, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Aaron Johnson, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users or subscribers):RMBS – China: Economic rebound, low rates and policy support are positive for mortgage borrowersBanks – Asia-Pacific: China's reopening will benefit only a few banking systems in Asia-Pacific

Jill Cetina explains the main risks we are watching for US banks following recent rating actions. Plus, a cross-regional look at how central bank digital currencies could transform payments.Speakers: Melina Skouridou, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Lucas Viegas, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Vincent Gusdorf, SVP, Moody’s Investors Service; Jill Cetina, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Myles Neligan, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users or subscribers):Financial Institutions – Global: FAQ: Cross-border, interoperable CBDCs could transform global paymentsFinancial Institutions – Brazil: Brazil’s central bank digital currency is the next step in its digital finance transformationBanks – US: Elevated interest rate and funding risks weaken credit strength of select US banks

Moody's analysts discuss high-profile departures from the Net Zero Insurance Alliance, plus increasing GCC bank mergers, and why Japan's largest banks can resist US banking sector stress.Speakers: Tetsuya Yamamoto, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Francesca Paolino, Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Brandan Holmes, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; James Eck, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Myles Neligan, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (may only be available to registered users or subscribers):Banks – Middle East: More M&A activity ahead as GCC banks build scale, revenue and cost synergiesBanks – Japan: Ample liquidity backed by stable deposits will limit impact of US bank distress on large banksReinsurance — Global: Catastrophe PML disclosures show divergence in risk appetites among firmsInsurance – Cross Region: Antitrust fears weaken insurers' net zero alliance, hindering decarbonization plans

Moody’s analysts discuss accelerating electric vehicle sales’ effects on US auto insurers and auto finance captives, and implications for state fuel taxes. Speakers: Matthias Heck, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Inna Bodeck, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Jasper Cooper – VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Ted Hampton, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Hosts:Nicholas Samuels, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service Related content on Moodys.com/autotransformation (may only be available to registered users or subscribers):Electrification momentum is strong, automakers must invest to stay competitiveUS auto finance captives’ evolving portfolios will carry more electric vehicles and greater riskAuto insurers’ costs and pricing will rise as electric vehicles grow more popularElectric vehicles raise carbon transition risk for states' highway revenue bonds

Moody’s analysts discuss the rescue of Credit Suisse, and explain why some fintechs have thrived even in adversity. Also, a look at the ongoing effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on CIS banks.Speakers: Michael Rohr, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors Service; Dietmar Hornung, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Investors Service; Vladlen Kuznetsov, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Petr Paklin, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Daniel Yu, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Arlene Sohn, Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Rodrigo Marimon Bernales, Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; David Yin, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Carolyn Henson – VP, Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Financial Stability – Switzerland: Low sovereign credit risks from events leading to UBS's takeover of Credit Suisse unless contagion spreadsBanks – Europe: Credit Suisse rescue and related liquidity measures protect senior bank creditors, but AT1 bondholders bear a costBanks - Commonwealth of Independent States: Ukraine invasion provides gains for some CIS banks but long-term challenges mountBanks – Australia: Challenges for new banks are increasing but opportunities to grow still remainBanking – South Korea: Expansion of Korea's virtual banks a credit negative for incumbentsBanks – Mexico: How challengers are unlocking Mexico's underserved credit market

Moody’s analysts discuss recent developments in the US and European banking systems, the implications for monetary policy and potential spillovers to emerging markets across the globe. Speakers: Donald Robertson, AMD – Financial Institutions, Moody’s Investors Service; Nick Hill, MD – Financial Institutions, Moody’s Investors Service; Eugene Tarzimanov, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Scott Phillips, AMD – Global Emerging Markets, Moody’s Investors Service Hosts: Shirin Mohammadi, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service For related research, visit the Global Banking System Outlook topic page. As financial pressures mount in a time of higher rates and slowing growth, Moody’s will continue to share our analysis of evolving trends and repercussions for banks around the world.

Moody's analysts discuss how emerging markets banks have evolved to compete with new entrants, and explain why fintechs globally are on shakier financial ground. Speakers: Stephen Tu, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Alexandre Albuquerque, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Petr Paklin, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Tengfu Li, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Erin McDermott, AVP – Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Links:Banking – Global: Fintechs lose financial footing, tipping scales in favor of incumbents, for nowBanks – Emerging Markets: Incumbent banks evolve to head off new entrants

We explore this year’s outlook for crypto and digital asset firms, and check in on financial repercussions a year after Russia's seizure of leased aircraft.Speakers: Benjamin Serra, SVP, Moody’s Investors Service; Mark Wasden, SVP, Moody’s Investors Service; Jayesh Joseph, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Vincent Gusdorf, SVP, Moody’s Investors Service; Alexandra Aspioti, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Myles Neligan, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Geopolitical Risks – Global: Payouts on aircraft lost in Russia pose risk to insurers but will aid lessors and lease ABSDecentralized Finance — Global: 2023 outlook: Crypto firms’ credit quality weaker, but key technologies to advanceAsset Management – Cross Region: Blockchain-enabled tokenization will boost growth in private assets

Helena Kingsley-Tomkins explains what’s behind insurance outlooks in Europe. In Fast Finance: troubles in real estate extend to Vietnam’s banks, and a look at Indian banks’ exposure to Adani Group.Speakers: Srikanth Vadlamani, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Joyce Ong, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Helena Kingsley-Tomkins, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Myles Neligan, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Risks from real estate and rising interest rates will undermine banks' credit profiles: Strong economic growth will offset strain on asset quality and profitability, supporting stable outlookBanks – India: Risks from Adani exposure are limited but can increaseInsurance – Europe: Inflation underpins negative P&C outlook, life stable on higher interest rates

Tomoya Suzuki talks about the digital payments push in Japan, and Rebecca Tan explains why the outlook is brighter for India’s public sector banks.Speakers: Tomoya Suzuki, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Rebecca Tan, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Hosts: Jun Yang, AVP – Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Banks – Japan: Push for digital transactions is credit negative for regional banksMoody's takes positive rating actions on four Indian public sector banksBanks – India: Rising rates will have limited impact on Indian banks' credit profiles

Moody's analysts discuss crypto asset regulation, credit developments at Silvergate Bank and foreign currency fluctuation risks for emerging markets banks and Asia-Pacific financial institutions.Speakers: Stephen Tu, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Sadia Nabi, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Eugene Tarzimanov, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Jungmin Arlene Sohn, Analyst, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Carolyn Henson, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Moody's downgrades Silvergate Bank's long term deposit rating to Ba1, outlook negativeFinancial Institutions – Global: Regulators' vigilance on cryptoasset risks, credit positive for banks, also has broader implicationsBanks - Emerging markets: Foreign-currency risk is acute for some banking systemsFinancial institutions – Asia-Pacific: Risks from local-currency depreciation are limited, except for some finance companies

Bruno Baretta explains how weak macroeconomic conditions are increasing credit risk for finance companies globally despite a possible profitability boost for some companies from rising interest rates. Speaker: Bruno Baretta, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Michael Porta, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):Finance Companies — Global: 2023 outlook negative with funding and asset quality weakening

Claims inflation and higher reinsurance costs loom large in the outlook for P&C insurance, while life insurers see enough benefit from higher interest rates to offset economic turbulence, for now.Speakers: Manoj Jethani, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Christian Badorff, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Hosts: Myles Neligan, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service

Against an uncertain global economic backdrop, hosts Carolyn Henson and Michael Porta talk to Moody’s analysts Edoardo Calandro, Rita Sahu and Nicholas Zhu about prospects for global banks in 2023.Speakers: Edoardo Calandro, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Rita Sahu, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Nicholas Zhu, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Carolyn Henson, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Michael Porta, VP –Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Banks – Global: 2023 outlook stable as rising rates, strong balance sheets counter global slowdownBanking System Outlook – China: Deteriorating operating environment drives negative outlook

Jill Cetina and David Fanger explain how this round of quantitative tightening will affect bank funding and capital. Plus, Coinbase faces higher risks, and Twitter’s lenders face markdowns.Speakers: Jill Cetina, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Investors Service; David Fanger, SVP, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Erin McDermott, AVP –Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Banks – Cross Region: Twitter underwriting losses thus far appear moderate for syndicate banksMoody's reviews Coinbase (Ba3 corporate family) for downgradeCoinbase Global, Inc.: FTX implosion leaves vacuum in crypto space, a credit negative for CoinbaseFederal Reserve’s second round of quantitative tightening will have pronounced effects on banks

Vincent Gusdorf, Fadi Massih and Warren Kornfeld discuss the aftermath of the FTX bankruptcy and explain how crypto finance risks could spill over into traditional financial institutions.Speakers: Vincent Gusdorf, Senior Vice President, DeFi & Digital Assets, Moody’s Investors Service; Fadi Massih, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Warren Kornfeld, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Michael Porta, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research:Financial Institutions – Cross Region: Failed bailout of FTX is credit negative for crypto marketExchanges & Clearing Houses – US Crypto meltdown raises heat on FTX's alternative clearing modelAs crypto finance system comes out of shadows, a dilemma emerges for banks

As COP 27 winds down, Shree Khare and Tomoya Suzuki discuss Japan's rising natural catastrophe risks, and Megan Fox and Brandan Holmes explain what's driving banks' and insurers' net zero plans.Speakers: Shree Khare, Vice President of Model Development, RMS; Tomoya Suzuki, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Megan Fox, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Brandan Holmes, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Myles Neligan, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated Research: Banks’ net zero financed emissions plans show progress, underscore challengesInsurance – Global: Net zero plans help insurers manage carbon transition risks

Srikanth Vadlamani explains why Indian banks’ loans will perform well despite rising interest rates, and Eugene Tarzimanov discusses the threat to Asia-Pacific banks from China’s slowing economy.Speakers: Srikanth Vadlamani, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Eugene Tarzimanov, VP – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Jun Yang, AVP – Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service

Kelvin Kwok, Mattias Frithiof and Farooq Khan explain the implications of inflation and rising interest rates for Asia-Pacific insurers and Western European and UK banks.Guests: Kelvin Kwok, AVP - Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Mattias Frithiof, AVP – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Farooq Khan, VP – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service; Myles Neligan, VP – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):Life insurance – Asia-Pacific: Asset and liability management will remain disciplined amid rising ratesBanks – Western Europe: Rising rates bring clear margin gains for European banks, but higher costs and loan impairments will offset benefitsBanks and Building Societies – United Kingdom: Headwinds from affordability shock to dampen profitability boost from rate rises

James Eck explains that with insured loss estimates of up to roughly $70 billion, earnings of property insurers and reinsurers will fall sharply, and some reinsurers could face capital erosion.Guests: James Eck, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceTo read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com (some content available only to registered users or subscribers).P&C Insurance and State Government – US: Hurricane Ian hits insurers' Q3 earnings; capital erosion risk for some (re)insurers Reinsurance – US: Reinsurers diverge on property catastrophe coverage in Florida; higher pricing ahead

Louise Welin and Maria Gillholm discuss difficulties ahead for Swedish mortgage borrowers and real estate companies, and implications for banks. Also, new business is slowing for US mortgage insurers.Guests: Bob Garofalo, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Louise Welin, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Maria Gillholm, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service, and Myles Neligan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceTo read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com (some content available only to registered users or subscribers).Financial Institutions – Sweden: Higher central bank rates are credit positive for banks, but asset risks are building Mortgage Insurance – US: Profitability remains high as housing market begins to cool Cross Sector – Sweden: Real estate refinancing risk worsens, but impact on banks manageable

Rajeev Bamra and Sadia Nabi discuss regulation of global cryptoassets and stablecoins in the US. Also: a proposal to clear certain Treasurys trades, and banks' risks from conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.Guests: Rajeev Bamra, head of DeFi and Digital Assets Strategy, Moody’s Investors Service; Sadia Nabi, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Lev Dorf, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Donald Robertson, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service, and Michael Porta, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service

C.J. Wong explains the forces behind Vietnamese banks’ credit strength, and Rebecca Tan discusses inflation's impact on banks in six member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.Guests: C.J. Wong, Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Rebecca Tan, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Hosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service, and Jun Yang, Assistant Vice President – Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceTo read more on this topic, visit Moodys.com (some content available only to registered users or subscribers).Banking System Outlook – Vietnam: Economic rebound and improving profitability support positive outlookGovernment of Vietnam: FAQ on economic prospects, environmental risks and institutional challengesRating Action: Moody's takes rating actions on 12 Vietnamese banksBanks – ASEAN: Inflation-driven rate rises will boost margins but rapid increases would be credit negative

Badis Shubailat and Tengfu Li discuss how high commodity prices are supporting the recovery of Islamic banks, and Alexandra Aspioti explains why GCC fund managers are optimistic. Guests: Alexandra Aspioti, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service; Badis Shubailat, Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service, and Tengfu Li, Assistant Vice President – Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service Hosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service, and Carolyn Henson, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Funds & Asset Management – Middle East: GCC fund firms expect oil price surge to support AUM and net inflowsIslamic finance – Cross region: High commodity prices will sustain the recovery of Islamic banks

Helena Kingsley-Tomkins explains why the outlook for global reinsurance is stable, despite higher natural catastrophe losses, and James Eck discusses the prospects for alternative capital.Guests: Helena Kingsley-Tomkins, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service and James Eck, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Hosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service, and Myles Neligan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Reinsurance – Global: Stronger earnings prospects and solid balance sheets underpin stable outlookReinsurance – Global: Buyers’ survey indicates claims inflation is driving reinsurance pricing momentumReinsurance – Global: Buyers’ survey indicates claims inflation is driving reinsurance pricing momentumReinsurance – Global: Alternative capital market poised to resume growth on higher reinsurance pricing

Bernhard Held and Petter Bryman discuss the implications for certain European banking systems of a reduction in Russian energy supply, and Alessandro Roccati discusses recent credit developments at Credit Suisse following large losses.Guests: Bernhard Held, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service, Petter Bryman, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service, and Alessandro Roccati, Senior Vice President, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service and Myles Neligan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Sovereign – Europe: Looming gas crisis intensifies credit pressures for Europe’s most exposed sovereignsBanking – Europe: Gas supply rationing would lift problem loans from benign levelsCredit Suisse Group AG: Update following rating actionCredit Suisse Group AG 2024 plan: reduced risk appetite and greater shift to wealth management will lower risks and earnings volatilityCredit Suisse Group AG Q4 2021: Weak revenue, goodwill impairment and litigation charges led to large lossCredit Suisse Group AG: Q2 2022: Weak revenues and litigation charges lead to large loss

Fabio Iannò explains why European banks will benefit from the ECB's recent increase in key interest rates, and Felipe Carvallo discusses how the sale of certain Citibanamex business operations will alter Mexico’s banking sector. Guests: Felipe Carvallo, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service, and Fabio Iannò, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service and Myles Neligan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):Banorte and Banco Santander México: Citibanamex acquisition would boost margins; combination's efficiency and loss-absorption will be key credit protectionsBanking – Europe: ECB action on rates, sovereign spreads will support southern European banks

Stephen Tu explains why Apple’s new Pay Later initiative may have important implications for financial institutions; Saranga Ranasinghe and Frank Mirenzi tell us about future growth in and risks to Australia’s pension (“superannuation”) sector.Guests: Saranga Ranasinghe, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Frank Mirenzi, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Stephen Tu, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service and Carolyn Henson, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):Pensions – Australia: Superannuation sector supports access to funding, debt sustainability of rated issuersInfographic: Australia's superannuation sector is a large and growing source of capitalBanks – Global: Apple Pay Later could lead to deeper foray into financial services product manufacturing

Yulia Wan and Sean Hung discuss the implications for financial institutions of China's policy focus on financial stability. Plus, Eugene Tarzimanov and Yaroslav Sovgyra discuss how inflation will affect banks in emerging economies.Guests: Yulia Wan, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Sean Hung, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Eugene Tarzimanov, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service, and Yaroslav Sovgyra, Associate Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service and Myles Neligan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):Cross Sector – China: More indirect and selective government support will add extra burden to state firmsBanking – China: Banks cautious in supporting property developers but asset risks still remain highBanks – G-20 emerging markets: Rapid inflation-driven rate hikes will be double-edged sword for banks

Neal Epstein explains how comparatively strong credit performance and returns draw asset managers to private credit despite high borrower leverage. Warren Kornfeld and Clay Montgomery cover the growing role of non-banks, including BDCs, in the space.Guests: Neal Epstein, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Funds & Asset Management, Moody’s Investors Service; Warren Kornfeld, Senior Vice President, Banking, Moody’s Investors Service, and Clay Montgomery, Vice President, Senior Analyst, Banking, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service and Michael Porta, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):Financial Stability – US: Private credit’s expansion fuels asset managers' AUM growthFinancial Stability – US: As banks cede share of corporate lending to non-banks, leverage and risk riseFinancial Stability – US Business Development Companies: BDCs' profitability will benefit from higher interest rates; asset risk will also increase

Rajeev Bamra explains why crypto markets are unlikely to allow mass sanctions evasion. Plus, Sarah Hibler explains why Russia’s invasion of Ukraine adds to uncertainty for cyber insurers in an already difficult operating environment.Guests: Rajeev Bamra, Vice President – Strategy & Business Management, Moody’s Investors Service, and Sarah Hibler, Associate Managing Director, Moody’s Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service and Myles Neligan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):Sovereigns – Global: Use of cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions will be limited by market size and liquidityFinancial Institutions – Global: Digital asset regulation comes into focus, and authorities have shown they can often follow the moneyP&C Insurance – Global: Cyber insurers raise rates, narrow coverage as military conflict in Ukraine heightens risk

Tom Aaron of the Public Finance team and Shachar Gonen of the Insurance team explore the reasons public pension funds and insurance companies have found private equity and private credit such compelling investments, and why public pension funds face higher risk than insurers from these assets.Guests: Thomas Aaron, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Shachar Gonen, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Hosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service and Michael Porta, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):Financial Stability – US: Private credit and other alternatives pose greater risk for pension funds than insurers

As mental health and substance abuse problems grow sharply in the US, insurance analyst Dean Ungar explains how US health insurers are trying to break down the wall between medical health and mental health and better integrate the latter into their operations. Also in this episode, insurance analysts Frank Yuen, Soichiro Makimoto and Qian Zhu discuss updates to capital regimes in Asia-Pacific, and what it means for insurers in Japan, mainland China and Hong Kong SAR, China. Guests: Dean Ungar, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Qian Zhu, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Frank Yuen, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service, and Soichiro Makimoto, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Moody’s Investors Service.Hosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors Service and Myles Neligan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Investors ServiceRelated content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):Japan’s new economic capital regulations drive efficient capital management for insurance companies China’s C-ROSS Phase II tightens capital charges and improves measurement of key risks Hong Kong’s implementation of groupwide supervision is credit positive for insurance groups Health Insurance — US: Industry focus on behavioral and mental health will help control medical costs

Financial Institutions team analysts Allen Tischler and Jasper Cooper talk about the effects of higher inflation on global banks, insurance companies and asset managers, and explain why the negatives outweigh the positives.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers):Financial Institutions – Cross Region: Risks of prolonged high inflation outweigh rate hike benefits

Analysts Olivier Panis, Bernhard Held and Antonello Aquino from the Financial Institutions team discuss the implications of a prolonged military conflict in Ukraine for banks and insurance companies, while Insurance analyst Laura Bazer focuses on the effects of long COVID claims on life insurers globally.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Life Insurance — Global: Long COVID early assessment: despite likely rise in claims, credit effects limitedFinancial Institutions – Global: Deteriorating global economic conditions broaden risks for the financial sectorBanks, securities firms, finance companies – Global: Ripple effects from Ukraine crisis are creating harsher business conditionsInsurers, Asset Managers – Global: Ukraine crisis adds to inflation and market volatility risk for insurers, asset managersGeopolitical Risks – Global: European utilities and energy-intensive companies among hardest hit by potential cut-off in Russian energy supplies

Banking analysts Louise Welin, Rita Sahu, Eugene Tarzimanov and Felipe Carvallo explain how global macroeconomic and geopolitical forces have shaped the outlooks for 32 of the world’s biggest banking systems, as the military conflict in Ukraine slows the global economy’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Research Announcement: Moody's maintains stable outlooks on most LATAM banking systemsResearch Announcement: Moody's maintains stable outlook on majority of APAC banking systemsResearch Announcement: Moody’s updates banking system outlooks for 10 European countries after Russia’s invasion of UkraineResearch Announcement: Moody's - US banking system will remain stable given expected credit fundamentalsResearch Announcement: Moody's - Credit outlook for Canada's banking system is stable

Felipe Carvallo of the Banking team explains how pension reform plans of Chile’s new young president could shake up banking and asset management. Plus, Banking team analyst Fadi Massih talks about how cryptocurrency is traceable, and what upcoming regulation means for cryptocurrency exchanges and other digital asset platforms.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Financial Institutions – Global: Digital asset regulation comes into focus, and authorities have shown they can often follow the moneyBanking – United States of America: US order seeking digital asset transparency and oversight would limit risks, promote financial stabilityPolitical Risk – Chile: FAQ on policy risks and credit effects across sectors as Boric administration takes office Government of Chile: Guaranteed Universal Pension will address social demands at relatively modest near-term fiscal costsThe State of the Chilean Consumer: July 2021: Pension savings withdrawals and stimulus measures are boosting consumptionFunds & Asset Management – Latin America & Caribbean: Proposal to reform Mexico's retirement system is credit positive for private pension fund asset managers

Insurance team analyst Helena Kingsley-Tomkins discusses Tesla’s move into high-tech auto insurance and how it will affect the competitive landscape. Plus, Mark Wasden of the Banking team and Gideon Lubin of the Structured Finance team explain how sanctions on Russian businesses and assets will affect aircraft leasing companies and ABS backed by aircraft and related leases.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Aircraft Lessors and Aircraft Lease ABS – Global: Lessors can absorb effects of moderate exposure to Russian airlines; exposed aircraft ABS vulnerableProperty & Casualty – Global: Tesla’s insurance venture puts incumbents under added pressure to innovateProperty & Casualty Insurance – US: Insurers better match rate to risk as telematics gain consumer acceptance

Yaroslav Sovgyra, Melina Skouridou and Olivier Panis of the Banking team explain how the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine has affected the credit strength of global, Western European, Russian and Ukrainian banks.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): The fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine will be felt by banks globally​​​​​​A few European banks face rising risk from exposure to Russia, UkraineRating Action: Moody's downgrades the ratings of 39 Russian financial institutions; outlooks changed to negative

Insurance analysts Jasper Cooper and Christian Badorff discuss both direct and secondary risks global insurers are facing as the military conflict in Ukraine continues. Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Insurance – Global: Russian invasion of Ukraine will drive investment volatility, more claims inflationGlobal – Cyber Risk: Russia-Ukraine tensions increase cyber risks across regions, asset classes

Analysts Megan Fox, Rokhaya Cisse and Mike Dion discuss cyber threats past and present, and steps regulators are taking to make sure financial institutions are prepared. Plus, Petr Paklin of the Banking team talks about the prospects for fast-growing all-digital banks, from market share to profits.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Funds & Asset Management – North America: SEC's proposed cybersecurity rules would strengthen investment industry's cyber resiliencyBanking – Cross Region: Heightened focus on rising cybersecurity threats bolsters banking industry's preparednessP&C Insurance and Reinsurance – Global: Court ruling highlights risks of hidden cyber coverage in P&C policiesBanking – Global: Rapid growth of challengers puts new verve into old banking systems

Moody’s banking analysts Constantinos Kypreos and Mik Kabeya join host Carolyn Henson to discuss prospects for banks in Africa’s five largest banking sectors after two difficult years. Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Banking System Outlook – Nigeria: Economic rebound and recovering profitability shift the outlook to stable Banking System Outlook – South Africa: Negative outlook driven by challenging operating and macro conditionsBanking System Outlook – Egypt: Solid financial metrics, robust economic growth drive a stable outlookBanking System Outlook – Morocco: Risk of lower government support capacity to the banks keeps our negative outlookBanking System Outlook – Kenya: Economic recovery, improving profitability drive stable outlook

Lev Dorf of the Banking team looks at why high use of dollars in many emerging markets poses rising risks for the country’s banks and where those risks are highest. Plus, Stephen Tu of the Financial Institutions group analyzes the Federal Reserve’s recent report and request for comment on the potential benefits of a US central bank digital currency.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Financial Institutions – North America: Fed’s US CBDC report highlights both the potential efficiencies of digital money and funding risks for banksBanks – China : Design of e-CNY will minimize risk of bank disintermediation in its initial phaseBanking – Global: Central banks aim to limit disruption when designing retail digital currenciesFinancial Institutions – Global: Four forces reshaping financial landscape have potential to dislodge incumbentsBanks - Emerging markets: High dollarization poses long-term risks for banks and for wider financial stability

Helena Kingsley-Tomkins and Paulette Truman of the Insurance team discuss how tech is transforming the insurance business, from connected devices that help prevent injuries and accidents to auto manufacturers entering insurance distribution. Plus, Sonny Hsu of the Banking team discusses the results of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s first climate stress test of banks, and Jasper Cooper of the Insurance team talks about the scope of insured losses from the recent Marshall wildfire in Colorado.Related content on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers): Banks – Hong Kong SAR, China: Hong Kong Monetary Authority's bank stress test on climate risk is credit positiveProperty & Casualty – United States: Homeowners and commercial property insurers face losses from Colorado wildfireProperty & Casualty Insurance – US: Insurers better match rate to risk as telematics gain consumer acceptanceInsurance – Global: Innovation critical for insurers as technology threatens their traditional earnings