Equity Market Strength is Masking a Recession | Mike Green
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
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Show Notes
Mike Green, Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist at Simplify, joins Monetary Matters to discuss why the strength of the equity market and other technical factors are obfuscating weakness in the US consumer and broader indicators of economic weakness to the point that it could be masking a recession. Green also discusses his views on inflation, the bond market, and the current stage of the passive investing endgame that he believes is the main culprit driving equity markets higher and higher.
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Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
Read Mike’s Substack here: https://www.yesigiveafig.com
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:46 US Consumer Mirage
08:59 The Impact of High Interest Rates
13:39 Labor Market Weakness Will Eventually Force the Fed to Cut
15:03 Current Stage of the Passive Endgame
25:25 Recession Timing
33:31 How Will Asset Values Fair in the Next Recession?
40:30 Bond Market &Inflation Views
46:38 Uber's Impact on Unemployment
52:03 Tariff Uncertainty & the Fed
54:04 Bonds, Housing, & Other Macro Trades
01:02:03 Bitcoin, Solana, & Other Closing Thoughts