Marketplace

The latest consumer expectations report is out and Americans are feeling much worse about their own personal financial situations than they were in March. Their inflation expectations though, haven’t budged much. In this episode, we look at why that might be — and whether these surveys correlate to economic reality. Plus: tariffs dampen hobby splurgers’ spirits, labor productivity drops and we nibble on the U.S.-U.K. trade deal.

As tariff pressures mount, China’s vice president and other leaders have agreed to meet with top U.S. officials. If history is any guide, substantial change to the tense trade relationship between the two countries will take time. So what’s urgent enough to discuss this week? Plus, some big companies issue more Eurobonds, small businesses tread lightly when discussing the trade war and “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal explains the latest Fed decision.

The U.S. trade deficit hit a record high in March, as businesses rushed to bring in goods ahead of new import taxes. Now that President Trump’s tariffs on goods from China have set in and globally targeted tariffs are set to resume in July, what happens to the trade deficit? Plus: Lab-grown diamonds disrupt a centuries-old industry, a few big companies are back in the bond market and how the trade war could disrupt retirement plans.

Oil companies are barely breaking even on crude oil right now — a barrel of West Texas Intermediate started Monday at a paltry $58. If prices stay low, firms will have a choice to make: invest in new production, or pay investors dividends. Plus, the services sector expanded but remains wary of tariffs, health care hiring may not weather major cuts to Medicaid and we visit an electric vehicle showcase in Shanghai.

It’s been one month since President Trump raised tariffs on goods from China. Already, the global supply chain is struggling. In this episode, we’ll hear about plummeting container ship traffic to the U.S. and how small retailers are dealing with limited stock. Plus, how the drayage sector is faring and what all these tariff negotiations will mean for the global economy going forward.

An upward climb in labor productivity has been a promising economic trend over the past few years. That’s important because productivity drives overall economic growth. But President Trump’s trade war, which is causing many businesses big and small to hold off on major investments, could cause that productivity to stagnate. Also in this episode: Coca-Cola reports stronger-than-expected earnings, the GOP wants EV owners to pay for road maintenance costs usually covered by a gas tax and the Sunbelt housing market turns lukewarm.

The latest GDP calculations and PCE index tell us the U.S. economy is doing … OK. Importantly, the data doesn’t point to stagflation. But the data was collected from January through March 2025, and at this point, March is old news. Also in this episode: American companies ramp up their spending on computers, Nike’s struggle to move sneaker manufacturing out of Asia is a cautionary tale and Texas becomes the biggest state to send public dollars to private schools through school choice vouchers.

When new gross domestic product data comes out tomorrow, economists expect we'll see the first GDP contraction in three years. But the report is backward-looking, so if the GDP did shrink, it will be thanks to tariff-related anxiety in the first quarter, rather than actual tariff implementation that kicked off in April. Also in this episode, some workforce stories: Why hiring more FAA air traffic controllers won’t be easy, a worker navigates Wyoming’s trona mining industry and a bathtub helps us understand the labor market differential.

Though it’s hard to say how much tariff-driven sticker shock consumers can stomach, some retailers have begun raising their prices. Other companies are rushing to set up “foreign trade zones” which allow them to sit on imported goods while they figure out their next move. In this episode, we'll also discuss how Trump's trade war — and the uncertainty it generates — is affecting a flower delivery business, the job market and American farmers.

The stock and bond markets may tumultuous right now, but gold prices have been on a tear. This week, they hit an all time high of $3,500 an ounce. In this episode, why nervous consumers, investment firms and even central banks are trading in cash for gold. Plus: The Trump administration announces incentives to get self-driving cars on the road and the largest passenger ship in the U.S. prepares to be sunk for science.

The Treasury’s Community Development Financial Institutions Fund supports lenders in far-flung and underserved areas. It also made a laundry list of federal programs President Trump deemed unnecessary and ordered to be “eliminated” last month. In this episode, how local banks are preparing for the possibility of losing that critical funding. Plus, leaders in the past who championed tariffs, retailers fret over consumer stress and apartment construction tapers off.

Trump’s tariffs will touch the vast majority of industries, but apparel — clothes, shoes, accessories — will be particularly impacted. Around 98% of clothing sold in the U.S. is imported, primarily from China. In this episode, we look at how tariffs have complicated the apparel supply chain. In short? Even fast fashion may no longer be cheap. Plus: The services sector braces for tariff-induced stings, home sales rose in March and a community bank CEO talks handling uncertainty.

Verizon lost nearly 300,000 monthly phone subscribers in the first quarter. The telecom giant put partial blame on ongoing government layoffs. Verizon will bounce back, analysts say, but its bad news may be followed by similar corporate disclosures reflecting DOGE-driven funding cuts and an atmosphere of paring back. Later in this episode, the U.S. lags China in nuclear power expansion, economic instability hinders AI data center investment and Catholic nuns struggle to find affordable care as they age.

The scale and volatility of the trade war may be surprising, but tariffs aren’t new — unless you’re an aircraft manufacturer. (A trade agreement eliminated duties on commercial jets in 1980.) Last week, China told its airlines to reject Boeing deliveries, and since then at least two jets have been redirected to U.S. soil. Also in this episode: Student visa revocations could impede U.S. innovation in tech and science, home sellers are making concessions and consumers struggle with credit card debt.

Stop us if you’ve heard this before: We’re in an unprecedented economic moment. But this time really is different. America’s place in the global economy is shifting, and what happens next is going to matter for businesses, consumers and you. This special Marketplace broadcast, hosted by Kai Ryssdal, is focused on helping you understand the scale and scope of the economic change in real time. Here’s what you’ll hear:Kai interviews experts about what happens when investors and businesses can’t plan, the relationship between tariffs and the return of manufacturing, and what we should think about employment going forward.On-the-ground stories from small businesses in Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington state, California and Iowa. Reporting from Sabri Ben-Achour, Justin Ho and Kristin Schwab on global trade without the United States, recession forecasting, and the industry that may experience the most tariff pain.Listener questions about the bond market, tariff revenue, the role of the U.S. dollar, global confidence and much more.We count on you, our listeners, to help cover the cost of the reporting that you rely on. If you can, please donate to help keep Marketplace free and accessible for all.

Some relief seems to have arrived on the housing shortage front — listings are up 9% compared to last year. But buyers who’ve been waiting for more properties to go on the market? Not many are biting. In this episode, why the housing market flip-flopped and put sellers in a tough situation. Plus, why the theft of food benefits is common and how warming waters are affecting Maine’s shrimp industry.

First-time jobless claims have been pretty stable since the start of March — unlike many other parts of the economy. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and immigration restrictions may not be ideal for businesses, but they could give companies a reason to hold on to workers. Also in this episode: The European Central Bank cuts its key interest rate, get that EV tax credit while you can, and a martial arts master stays in Altadena, California, after losing her studio in the wildfires.

We’ve heard about people rushing to replace big-ticket essentials ahead of trade war-related price hikes, but what about stuff that’s more of a want than a need? In this episode: Tariff anxieties shape discretionary spending, giving consumers a way to feel some control in this chaotic economy. Plus: mixed signals from a manufacturing report, bitcoin’s chance at “digital gold,” and one of Altadena’s largest employers wants to rebuild and rehire longtime staff after the California wildfires.

For the first few years of the pandemic, businesses navigated a backed-up global supply chain that left some with excess inventory and others with no inventory at all. Tariffs may cause similar issues: Companies are stocking up on imports, and prices will likely rise. In this episode, business owners compare this economic moment to early-COVID supply snarls. Plus: Trade tensions are causing a drop in oil prices and stoking confusion in the steel industry. Also: The first installment of our series about how Altadena, California, businesses will rebuild after the devasting wildfire.

Fear of unemployment jumped 4.6 percentage points to 44% in March, according to a New York Fed survey. That’s the highest it’s been since April 2020. Expect the commercial real estate market to feel that same vibe. Companies concerned about a tariff-induced recession may make cuts or stick with Zoom instead of leasing new office space, experts told us. Also: Uncertainty is driving up junk bond yields, foreign investors may be pulling back on U.S. markets, and we talk to a small-business executive in “survival mode” over tariffs.

Just like some people fudge the numbers to lower their taxes, some companies do the same when paying tariffs on foreign goods. The federal government is mostly trusting that what’s in that shipping container is actually 100 bicycles, and not 500 bicycles. But erratic, rapidly changing trade policy is making it easier to evade tariffs, a customs broker told us. Also in this episode: Car insurance costs dip (but probably won’t stay down), a six-figure household income isn’t what it used to be, and the U.S. dollar takes a tumble.

Stocks aren’t the only assets in the financial markets that were beat up this week by President Trump’s tariffs. Bonds suffered too. After 3-year Treasury yields rose in the face of disappointing demand, bond investors are scrutinizing Treasury auctions for signs of further weakness. Also in this episode: Trump's anti-DEI push could hurt minority contractors, Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic counsels caution and a millennial in Texas dreams of becoming a homeowner.

We’ve said it more than once lately: This economy is defined by uncertainty. And as President Trump makes aggressive, if erratic, moves on trade and federal funding, firms and organizations are taking action to protect their interests. In this episode, some universities issue bonds ahead of federal funding cuts and some companies retract their investor guidance for 2025. Plus: Tariffs can’t reshore every sector of manufacturing and we launch a series documenting the consumer economy, focused on the views and experiences of people.

The issuance of corporate bonds has slowed to a crawl, thanks to all that uncertainty in the economy. And without raising money in the bond market, firms may pull back on long-term investments. Also in this episode: The Democratic Republic of the Congo extends its ban on cobalt exports to raise prices, strains in the bar and restaurant business lead to closures and we answer listener questions on trade policy.

Import levies on Chinese goods amount to 54% right now. But some things that China excels at producing will likely remain in China. In this episode, why shoemaking can’t up and leave anytime soon. Plus: Copper prices ballooned and tanked in the past few weeks, European carmakers weigh their options in the trade war and recession fears, not inflation fears, are driving bond yields.

Tariff-driven inflation will hit Americans with the lowest incomes the hardest, slashing their disposable income by at least $1,700 a year, the Yale Budget Lab predicts. We’ll explain why. And the labor market could suffer too if demand falls for all those higher-priced products. Plus, New Mexico allocates oil and gas revenue to child care programs, and in booming West Texas, some residents struggle to access running water.

Uncertainty about tariffs and trade policy has been top of mind since President Donald Trump’s election in November. We finally know how high those tariffs will be (between 10% and 54%) and to which countries they’ll apply (almost all of them). Now, a key question is: How much will prices rise? In this episode, business owners prep for the costs and some economists predict an economic downturn. Plus: The administration wants the IRS to share undocumented immigrants’ protected information with Homeland Security.

Corporate dealmakers hoped merger and acquisition ventures would heat up this year. But the first quarter of 2025 saw the slowest M&A activity in more than a decade, according to Dealogic. In this episode, why firms aren’t shelling out billions to buy another company in this economy. Plus: Nintendo announces a new Switch console, Gen Z suffers in a low-hire, low-fire job market, and a new study shows nonwhite bankruptcy filers face a lower likelihood of debt relief.

People feel richer — and spend accordingly — when their assets rise in value. That’s called the wealth effect. But when folks get their retirement account statements for Q1 of 2025, they may feel the opposite, since most of those accounts lost value. Will Americans pull back on their spending as a result? Plus, subcompact cars steer into the sunset, farmers are pessimistic about tariffs, and very small businesses can be a bellwether of economic trends.

Just how expensive has homeownership become? To afford a typical home, households need an income of about $117,000 right now — a 50% increase from $78,000 in January 2020, according to a Bankrate report. Over the same five years, wages rose just 27%. What gives? Also in this episode: The dollar’s value drops, Europe weighs economic independence amid tariff troubles and falling enrollment shrinks budgets at rural public schools.

Consumers say they’re fed up with inflation, then they keep spending. But their behavior could be catching up with their anxiety, an economist told us. The clues are in data released today by the Commerce Department. Also in this episode: Can you live on just 13 gallons of water a day? One water-saving group thinks it’s possible. Plus, we look into how cities, farmers and compost brokers are tackling organic waste.

The U.S. economy grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2024, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. That number tells us where the economy was headed coming into this year. But with uncertainty surrounding tariffs, that story has taken a turn. Plus, how sinking credit scores caused by student loan delinquencies could hurt the overall economy, and the dramatic rise in modern-day train heists.

More tariffs are on the way, this time targeting vehicle imports. President Donald Trump favors import taxes, partly because, he argues, they’ll help shrink the U.S. trade deficit. But if tariffs cut Americans’ spending on imports, foreigners are likely to cut their contribution to funding the U.S. budget deficit. Also on the show: BLS economists use not one but six different methods to measure unemployment, and organizational studies professor Elizabeth Popp Berman explains why university endowments can’t simply replace federal funding.

The latest reading marks the fourth straight month of declining consumer confidence, and it fell more than expected. How will the souring mood affect spending and the job market? Also in this episode: Political economist Mark Blyth discusses how President Trump might respond to a potential recession. Plus, why tariffs are making investors wary of the U.S. and a company claims to have a new way to make seawater drinkable.

The Donald Trump administration wants to strengthen U.S. manufacturing with tariffs on imported goods. We look at the latest purchasing managers report to see if new trade policies have made an impact. Also in this episode: Homeownership rates stall for Gen Z and millennials, shakeups at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and Baltimore’s new Francis Scott Key Bridge design takes shape.

We’re tackling a “mysterious and important” question in today’s episode: Should Congress use “current policy” or “current law” baseline when measuring tax cuts? It’s not unlike our reporter’s internal struggle on whether to cancel Apple TV+ now that Season 2 of “Severance” has ended, or renew it. Except lawmakers are dealing with trillions of dollars. Plus: African immigrants fill critical home health aide roles in Texas, and The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index falls for the third-straight month.

More tariffs are set to take effect April 2, and in most cases, American consumers and businesses will pay the tax. We’ll explain why some sectors expect prices to rise as soon as next month while others won’t feel a pinch until later in the year. Also in this episode: Tariffs could inflate the dollar’s strength while sapping demand for American exports, Gen Zers feel “trapped” by microtrends and Alaskan crude oil production is projected to jump in 2026.

Federal Reserve policymakers aren’t cutting interest rates right now, though they expect two rate cuts in 2025. When — and if — those cuts come will depend on how the trade war shakes out. In this episode, what static rates mean for consumers and businesses. Plus, more byproducts of tariff-driven economic uncertainty: bond spreads widen and export prices rise, particularly on agricultural products.

“Recession” recently peaked on Google Trends — a sure sign Americans are sweating the possibility of an economic downturn. But what do the numbers say? Well, the hard data so far reflects a pretty strong economy. But the soft, economic-vibes data, is … less optimistic. Plus: Government credits help Tesla and other EV-makers stay afloat, liquefied natural gas exports are slated to double in five years and advocates help young people who’ve aged out of foster care find resources.

About 8.9 million. That’s how many U.S. workers worked more than one job in February — an all-time high, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We spoke with some workers holding multiple job about why this economy necessitates a second (or third) gig. Plus, economist Mohamed El-Erian on DOGE and recession odds, and we break down why the U.S. energy mix probably won’t change much under President Donald Trump.

Mortgage rates have fallen recently to 6.6% for a 30-year fixed. But will it be enough to bring prospective homebuyers off the sidelines? Not according to one survey, which found some buyers are holding out for rates below 5%. Also in this episode: The Trump administration cut USDA programs that allowed schools and food banks to buy fresh, local food. And the U.S. wants Chinese consumers to spend more, but that won’t be easy.

The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen sharply in the last few weeks, thanks largely to tariff flip-flopping and overall economic uncertainty. Typically, significant sustained changes in a currency’s value indicate the relative strength of a nation’s economy. Should we be worried? Also: New tariffs triggered a January import rush that will ding GDP, student loan borrowers are temporarily blocked from income-driven repayment plans and Amazon pulls back on its brick-and-mortar grocery biz.

Just 44% of employees feel confident about the next six months at their company, a Glassdoor survey found — the lowest in nine years. Thank government layoffs, tariff uncertainty and a toughening job market. Are these negative predictions warnings of a coming recession? Also in this episode, the overall cost of food at home was flat in February, electric grid battery storage grew 66% in the U.S. last year, and Angelenos worry dumped wildfire debris could be toxic.

Back in 2018 — the last time President Donald Trump led a trade war — some businesses got tariff exemptions if they imported goods that couldn’t be sourced in the U.S. Was the process to apply smooth and transparent? Well … no. Will today’s businesses have the same opportunity? That remains to be seen. Also in this episode: Home improvement stores launch AI helper bots, corporate forecasts aim low, and small businesses hesitate to hire.

Terri Bromberg lost her home of 20 years in the Los Angeles fires. Rather than rebuild, the artist and professor chose to sell and move elsewhere. Prospective buyers put in bids without being able to see the plot of land in person. In this episode, Bromberg and her real estate agent tell us about the process of selling in the Pacific Palisades since the wildfires. Plus: China announces retaliatory tariffs on some U.S. agricultural products, Americans lose confidence in their financial futures, and why Tesla’s stock price has slumped.

Overall employment dropped last month, according to the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. At the same time, employers added jobs to the economy. Weird, right? Well, two surveys make up the monthly report — one of households and one of employers. And they can disagree. Plus, more part-time workers want full-time jobs, Gap is on a roll, and professional basketball has become a game regulations.

The Federal Reserve may be steering the economy through another trade war. But this time, the inflation of the last few years complicates its task. Also in this episode: Unemployed Americans struggle to snag new positions, banks’ unrealized losses jump, and an aerospace tech startup sets up shop in Cumberland County, Tennessee.

Ask an economist what’s driving decision-making right now, and the answer may well be “uncertainty.” In this episode, the unpredictable environment fuels a range of change: The labor market softens, surveys of the service sector point in opposite directions and Treasury yields sink. Plus, the Commerce Department just dissolved two expert advisory groups, putting the trustworthiness of future federal data into question.

They’re here: President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico begin today, as well as an additional 10% tax on goods from China. In this episode, we hear from business owners who are caught in the middle of trade policy chaos and explain why Texas is likely to suffer in particular. Plus, Forest Service layoffs devastate rural western mountain towns, and small warehouses are in demand but hard to come by.

As bird flu proliferates across U.S. farms, infecting chickens, cows and even humans, some public health experts worry that that funding to deal with it has been inadequate. Above all, they say we need stronger incentives for farmers and farmworkers to test for and report cases of the virus. Plus, the manufacturing sector’s outlook remains mixed, two-thirds of Americans say they have been victims of a financial scam and what could happen if we removed government spending from GDP calculations.