How to defend Ukraine after a ceasefire
Mark Leonard welcomes Jennifer Kavanagh to talk about Ukraine’s security architecture and the consequences of a US foreign policy that deprioritises Europe
Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes · Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes
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Show Notes
As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine enters its fifth year, negotiations are finally entering a productive phase. Mark Leonard is joined by Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, and author of the new report, “An Armed Nonalignment Model for Ukraine’s Postwar Security”, to examine Ukraine’s security status and US foreign policy towards it. Mark and Jennifer explore her proposal that Ukraine should position itself as an “armed nonalignment” state, the future of the transatlantic alliance, and America’s National Defense Strategy.
Can Ukraine be nonaligned but also “armed to the teeth”? Could it become a porcupine that Russia cannot swallow? What should Europe and Ukraine do if future US foreign policy focuses more on the Indo-Pacific and the western hemisphere? Could Russia feasibly invade Ukraine again? And what happens if it does?
Bookshelf
An Armed Nonalignment Model for Ukraine’s Postwar Security by Jennifer Kavanagh
The bear in the Baltics: Reassessing the Russian threat in Estonia by Jennifer and Jeremy Shapiro
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This podcast was recorded on 30th January 2026
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