Macro & Volatility™

Convexity conundrum: diversifying assets didn’t workCommodities are not tariffs and cannot be altered at the stroke of a penTape bombs are having diminishing impact

More about rotation than directionBonds are still not protectingImplied correlation / VIX is at a record low

Healthy correction in gold and silverHigher nominal rates globallyWarsh’s impact on the MOVE and VIX

Ready, Shoot, Aim FedMisunderstanding of Oracle CDSWelcome back to the ‘90s

Long Vol and long DeltaPaid to be long CorrelationBuy Everything!

Risk-on sentiment is reinforced by accelerated global earningsMarkets go up... volatility goes upThe Magnificents’ P/E-to-expected growth is favorable — not true for the Everything ElseCross-asset correlations are already historically high — a short hop to “1”Gold is expected to move higher, driven by global populist monetary and fiscal stimulus

• Surprise — no surprises • Front end is clear • Back end is lost

US Dollar allergy & US Treasury curve illnessTipping point for US Dollar weaknessRisk appetite still going strong!

The winners, the losers, and the in-betweensOld economy vs New economy CapExTrump has Made Europe Great Again (“MEGA”)US De-globalization is leading to Global De-correlation

Realized volatility did the heavy liftingTrade (“Cold”) War discountPace of news flow will slow

What does Liberation Day mean for inflation?Bonds and the Fed are pointing to growth contraction and moderate stagflationTail-hedging didn’t workTrump Put is very different than the Fed Put

The bond market says ...What's driving the yields?The VIX continues to be higher for longer

CEO FOMO, 30 years later.Using lessons from the past to understand risk today.A key difference in valuations, then and now.

CEO FOMO, 30 years later; Using lessons from the past to understand risk today;A key difference in valuations, then and now

The US political risk premium. Market corrections could be violent. Upside may be limited by PE contraction; downside may be limited by two Trump puts.

Rate volatility will likely be higher for longer. Elevated rate volatility means higher mortgage rates. High mortgage rates will contribute to higher inflation.

Fleeting competition for gold. Gold strength continues despite dollar range, elevated rates, and low vol. Silver can catch up.

Options Markets point to risk-on with a higher VIX through year-end. In China, right tail is bid. The AI rotation may benefit China and, derivatively, Europe.

The Fed is data driven, is the bond market?What usually calms the market?What will calm this market?

Third derivative has impacted market structureWho bailed out short vol and dispersion traders?Bonds did their job, but do they have the juice to do it again?Will Dual Goldilocks prevail?

Josh and Michael discuss whether the Rotation Trade is sustainable, if Russell is the right bedfellow and if thematic pairs trades are riskier than long indices.

Collecting equity risk premium is profitableInflation after November 5thInsurance is cheap!

Josh and Michael discuss how FX volatility is not reflecting the same political concerns as French bonds, skew as a better indicator of risk than volatility in FX and how the VIX is low but the IV-RV spread is high in the US.

Josh Silva and Michael Purves tackle both ends of the curve - the MOVE and VIX “sell (VOL) in May and go away” - a dovish fiscal policy.

Why is Gold rallying without volatility, and despite a stronger US dollar and stubbornly high US interest rates?

Josh and Michael discuss The Fed's impact on the equity and fixed income volatility and prospective market outcomes.

Josh and Michael tackle the continuation of rising yields and an equity rally, and why a higher floor should be expected for the for the VIX and interest rates.

Listen in as Michael Purves and Josh Silva discuss the potential impact of rising interest rates on the economy, VIX, equity market volatility, and historical comparisons with the 90's tech-driven rally.

In this episode, we look at what a dispersion trade is, how it might affect the VIX, and historical parallels that warrant attention but also point to potential upside rallies.

The inaugural Macro & Volatility podcast featuring Michael Purves of Tallbacken Capital Advisors and Josh Silva of Passaic Partners. In this episode we discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, what the derivative markets are currently telling us, and the structural trends in cross asset volatility.