The Science (and Art) of Election Polling
Major recent polls suggest that former Vice President Joe Biden will defeat President Donald Trump by a decisive margin in next week's election. A simulation by FiveThirtyEight shows Biden winning 88 times in 100,
October 28, 202051m 25s
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Show Notes
Major recent polls suggest that former Vice President Joe Biden will defeat President Donald Trump by a decisive margin in next week's election. A simulation by FiveThirtyEight shows Biden winning 88 times in 100, and a model from The Economist puts Biden’s chances of winning the electoral college at 95%. But for the obsessive poll watchers who in 2016 were shocked by Trump's win, today's numbers are fraught. We'll talk about how election polls are constructed, how to interpret them and how methodologies have changed since 2016.