Investments Unplugged

Episode overview In this episode of Investments Unplugged, hosts Macan Nia and Kevin Headland discuss the investment implications of the Middle East conflict that began in the first quarter of 2026. Rather than forecasting geopolitical outcomes, Macan and Kevin focus on how shocks in energy-producing regions can transmit quickly into oil and natural gas prices, consumer costs, inflation expectations, and market volatility. The discussion is framed around: The context of today’s macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop Historical lessons from past geopolitical events (“disruptive” vs. “destructive”) Key factors to watch amid the current conflict , particularly the Strait of Hormuz Practical portfolio considerations, including: Volatility management Deploying cash assets Fixed-income duration Emphasizing quality and diversification o Key topics & insights 1. Why energy is the fast transmission mechanism Oil & gas move quickly into day-to-day costs: Higher energy prices pressure consumer budgets and can reduce spending elsewhere (they note consumption is ~two-thirds of the U.S. and Canadian economies). Real-time examples of price impacts: They cite U.S. average gasoline prices around $3.60/gal, up ~27% since early March (also noting seasonal “summer blend” effects). Europe’s sensitivity to natural gas: They highlight that gas matters particularly for Europe and can drive equity volatility there. 2. The conflict’s nuance: scale of regional supply + chokepoint risk Middle East production concentration: They estimate roughly ~20% of global oil production comes from the Middle East. Strait of Hormuz as a chokepoint: They emphasize the Strait’s importance, noting ~20% of oil flows through it daily and also referencing natural gas flows. Operational disruption risk vs. outright closure: Even if ships have legal right of passage, they discuss how slower traffic, inspections, and higher insurance costs can still disrupt supply and risk sentiment. 3. Disruptive vs. destructive: what history suggests Most geopolitical shocks are “disruptive”: They describe internal research showing many events historically have short-lived market drawdowns, with returns often positive 3 months and 1 year later. When it can turn “destructive”: They reference the 1973–74 oil shock/Yom Kippur War framework—where sustained high oil contributed to recession—arguing the duration of elevated prices is key. Catalyst vs. cause: They note recessions typically aren’t caused by one event alone; timing and existing fragilities matter. 4. Inflation, central banks, and why bonds may not hedge the usual way Energy can re-ignite inflation fears: If high energy is not transitory, they suggest inflation could remain sticky or reaccelerate. Policy uncertainty: They discuss the challenge for central banks balancing inflation control vs. growth risks, and note market expectations for 2026 rate cuts shifting (from multiple cuts expected to potentially far fewer). Fixed income positioning: They express preference for higher-quality credit and caution against taking too much duration risk in a volatile inflation backdrop; fixed income is framed as a patience game. 5) Portfolio discipline in fast-moving headline markets Don’t invest emotionally: They stress not letting emotions drive decisions and reiterate diversification’s role. Cash deployment needs a plan: Because markets can move sharply on ceasefire/headline risk, they advocate “staging in” with predefined triggers rather than trying to time a single entry point. Volatility as an opportunity indicator: They cite research that investing when the VIX is above 30 historically led to stronger forward returns (e.g., higher 6-month and 1-year returns vs. average conditions), while noting VIX was around the mid-20s at the time discussed. 6. Second-order impacts beyond oil and gas (food inputs) Fertilizer/food linkage: They highlight the Strait’s relevance to seaborne sulfur trade (a fertilizer input), raising the possibility of food-price implications—especially relevant for emerging markets and policy paths. · Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors Separate geopolitics from portfolio process: Don’t make large, reactive shifts based on fast-changing headlines; keep decisions anchored to your plan and time horizon. Watch energy as the key macro variable: Monitor whether oil and gas remain elevated for longer—that’s the difference between a short shock and a broader inflation/growth problem. Be intentional with cash: If you have cash to deploy, use a staged plan with trigger points (rather than waiting for “all-clear” news that may already be priced in). Revisit fixed-income risk (duration and quality): In an energy-driven inflation-risk scenario, consider whether your bond exposure is taking more duration risk than you intended; emphasize quality and recognize bonds may not cushion equities as reliably if inflation expectations rise. Stay diversified and avoid concentration: Use this as a reminder that diversi

Episode overview In this episode of Investments Unplugged, hosts Kevin Headland and Macan Nia mark International Women’s Day by exploring longevity through the lens of women and financial preparedness. They’re joined by Director, Multi-Asset Solutions Erica Camilleri, who shares thoughts and research on why longevity risk is higher for women, how today’s macroeconomic backdrop (including higher cross-asset correlations and persistent inflation) can amplify retirement risks, and what investors can do—through better planning, appropriate risk-taking, and sound advice—to reduce the odds of outliving their savings. Key topics & insights 1. Longevity risk and why it’s higher for women Financial shortfall risk gap — Manulife research found that women in Canada face a higher risk of experiencing financial shortfalls in retirement than men do (34% vs. 29%). It’s not just living longer — Longevity risk stems from a mix of longer (and rising) life expectancies, plus structural and social factors that can reduce lifetime savings and increase retirement vulnerability. 2. Health, wealth, and “longevity preparedness” Health and wealth are intertwined — The conversation emphasizes that longevity preparedness isn’t only about financial issues; for example, poor health can worsen retirement outcomes and vice versa. New tools and frameworks — The “longevity preparedness index” is designed to measure readiness to thrive while aging in retirement and is expected to expand into Canada in coming years. 3. The role of incentives and behaviour change (and why it matters for outcomes) Incentives can drive better habits — The episode highlights research over decades indicating that specific goals outperform vague “do your best” goals and discusses how incentive-based programs can encourage healthier behaviour (and, by extension, better long-term outcomes). 4. Structural inflation is still a long-term retirement risk Inflation has moderated cyclically but remains structurally higher — Even if inflation trends toward central bank targets, the episode argues households are still living with a higher price level and that long-run inflation may settle in the mid-to-high 2% range rather than the pre-pandemic norm. Retirement math is sensitive to small inflation shifts — A modest upward shift in expected inflation (example discussed: +40 bps) can materially raise required savings/asset levels for retirement (example cited: a 30-year-old might need ~19% more assets). 5. Portfolio construction challenges: higher correlations and concentration risk Diversification is harder when correlations rise — The hosts discuss higher correlations within equities and between equities and fixed income, plus increased market concentration—factors that can make portfolios more vulnerable to shocks. Longevity risk is amplified by portfolio risk — In a “fluid” market backdrop, managing drawdowns and sequence-of-returns risk becomes more important for sustaining long retirements. 6. Mitigating longevity risk: saving earlier, compounding, and appropriate risk Start early; small changes matter — The conversation stresses the power of compounding and the outsized impact of starting earlier (even with small incremental improvements). Avoid being overly conservative — The episode argues many investors (especially in defined contribution plans) are too conservative, and that growth asset exposure is critical to reducing shortfall risk over multi-decade retirements. Rethinking retirement glidepaths — Erica explains their approach avoids a static asset allocation through retirement, allowing for more growth exposure early in retirement given retirements can last decades. 7. Advice, planning, and using the right tools (including RRSPs) Financial advice early helps — A repeated theme is that advice earlier in life helps investors understand opportunities, risks, and the need for money to last throughout retirement (and potentially leave a legacy). Tax-advantaged tools matter — The hosts reference prior discussions on RRSP benefits and how tax savings can compound and support retirement resilience. · Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors Plan for a longer retirement than you think: Build your plan around the possibility of a multi-decade retirement (the episode references retirements that could stretch to ~40 years). Don’t ignore inflation in long-range assumptions: Stress-test your retirement plan for slightly higher long-term inflation; even small changes can require meaningfully higher savings. Prioritize time in the market (compounding): If you’re early in your career, focus on starting now—small contribution increases made earlier can have an outsized impact later. Be deliberate about risk—not automatically conservative: Review whether your portfolio is too cautious for your horizon (including early retirement), since insufficient growth can increase shortfall risk. Diversify with today’s correlation regime in mind: Recognize that diversification may be less r

Hosts Kevin Headland and Macan Nia recently sat down with John Natale, Head of Tax, Retirement & Estate Planning Services at Manulife, to unpack: • The real world trade offs between registered retirement savings plans (RRSPs) and tax-free savings account (TFSAs); • Why successor holder designations can spare families tax and paperwork; • A time sensitive spousal RRSP contribution opportunity after a death; • Cross border (U.S.) TFSA considerations; • Using segregated funds as a liquidity “cash wedge” after death; and • Why the value of financial advice extends far beyond portfolio returns. Take a listen for practical, plain language insights you can bring to client conversations today.

Some industry predictions may seem outlandish—or even impossible. But does that mean they’re not worth considering? Kick off 2026 with Kevin and Macan, as they explore consensus- defying predictions that may sound absurd, but warrant closer examination. Listen in as they examine the logic behind some of industry's boldest predictions, challenging listeners to rethink what’s truly possible. From a potential 50% surge in gold prices to an S&P 500 Index that could endure a bear market and still finish the year up 20%, our hosts break down the rationale, data, and market dynamics behind each scenario—examining the roles of central bank rate cuts, liquidity, momentum and investor behavior, all while underscoring the importance of diversification in an unpredictable market environment. Tune in for a lively start to 2026—and decide for yourself: are these forecasts improbable, or impossible?

Episode 113: 2025 in the rearview—are markets in for another strong year?Hosts:Kevin Headland (Co-chief Investment Strategist)Macan Nia (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)Special guests:Emily Roland (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)Matt Miskin (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)Episode highlights• 2025 in review:• The team discusses the strong performance of markets in 2025, including theTSX’s impressive 24% return despite a challenging economic backdrop in Canada.• Key market drivers:• The role of momentum trading, trend-following strategies, and AI exuberance.• The ongoing influence of the crypto trade.• Discrepancies between Canada’s economic data and TSX performance.• Looking ahead to 2026:• Will the trends of 2025 continue, or is a shift on the horizon?• The importance of sentiment as we enter the new year—are markets priced forperfection?• Why investing in companies is not the same as investing in the broader economy.• Risks and opportunities:• Potential risks for the Canadian economy, especially regarding banks andfinancials.• The importance of being prudent and keeping an eye on domestic economicindicators.• The impact of investor confidence and employment on market flows.• Actionable insight:Information à usage interne - Internal• The team provides practical considerations for investors as they positionportfolios for 2026.• Encouragement to review the team’s full 2026 outlook, available on the ManulifeInvestments website.Additional information• Subscribe on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or your favorite platform to stay up to date.• Listeners are encouraged to rate, share, and reach out with questions or feedback.

The Blue Jays were swinging for the fences, but investors are facing numerous curveballs of their own. In our latest episode of Investments Unplugged, Kevin and Macan step up to the plate to tackle some of the most frequently asked questions from the road: the real impact of the U.S. government shutdown, the rally in gold prices, and what’s really driving bond yields. To add a festive twist, our dynamic hosts also go off- script to share their thoughts on trick-or-treating budgets, Halloween candies, and costume trends. Tune in for recent market developments—and enjoy a few treats along the way.

Episode overviewIn this special episode, hosts and Co-Chief Investment Strategists Kevin Headland and Macan Nia welcome Nathan William Thooft, Chief Investment Officer for Multi Assets and Equities at Manulife Investments. Nate shares his global perspective on markets, asset allocation, and the evolving investment landscape, with insights tailored for Canadian investors.---Key topics & insights1. U.S. economic outlook: resilience amid uncertainty· No imminent recession expected—Nate explains that while recent U.S. labor market data has softened, it’s not likely a signal for an imminent recession. The U.S. economy’s balance between manufacturing and services helps offset sector-specific weaknesses.· Policy uncertainty—Earlier legislative and tariff changes have caused “paralysis” in company decision-making, but clarity is expected to improve economic data in coming months.· New paradigm—The severity of future U.S. recessions may be more muted due to the economy’s diversification.2. Inflation & tariffs: what’s really happening?· Tariff impact delayed—Studies show tariffs typically take up to a year to affect inflation. Many imports are exempt, and companies are absorbing costs, leading to lower-than-expected inflationary effects.· Substitution effect—Companies are shifting imports to countries with lower tariffs, further dampening inflation pressures. 3. Regional equity markets: Europe & Asia· Europe’s outperformance—European equities have surprised with strong returns in 2025. Nate attributes this to a sentiment shift away from the U.S. amid geopolitical uncertainty, but sees it as opportunistic rather than a long-term trend.· Active vs. passive management—Active management is especially valuable in regions like Europe and Asia, where opportunities are less covered.· China’s mixed signals—Despite strong equity performance and policy support, China’s fundamentals (consumer spending, industrial production) remain weak. Nate is cautiously optimistic, citing potential in technology and AI, and improving sentiment.4. Asset allocation: equities vs. fixed income· Modest equity overweight—Manulife portfolios remain overweight equities, reflecting solid fundamentals despite stretched valuations.· Fixed income caution—Less conviction in long-duration fixed income due to changing yield curve dynamics and rising term premiums.· Diversification beyond 60/40—Nate advocates for broader diversification, including alternative assets, to manage risk.5. Private Assets & Alternatives· Democratization of privates—The trend toward making private assets (infrastructure, private credit, real estate) accessible to retail investors is accelerating, as seen in recent industry partnerships.· Role in portfolios—Private assets offer diversification and potential downside protection, especially when traditional fixed income may be less effective.6. Artificial Intelligence (AI) in asset management· Efficiency & speed—AI is transforming research, data analysis, and commentary writing, but won’t replace portfolio managers who bring creativity and intellectual capital.· Research revolution—AI enables analysis of vast data sets, improving productivity and decision-making. 7. Cryptocurrency: a legitimate asset class?· Growing acceptance—Nate views crypto as a legitimate asset class, though volatility and regulatory uncertainty mean exposures should remain modest and client-specific.· Regulatory trends—As demand grows, policy is likely to become more accommodating.8. Career advice for aspiring portfolio managers· Decisiveness—Don’t wait for perfect information—make decisions with 60–80% of the data to avoid missing opportunities.· Passion & objectivity—Be passionate about investing, but unemotional in decision-making. The ability to cut losses and remain objective is crucial for success.---Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors· Stay diversified—Consider global opportunities and alternatives beyond traditional stocks and bonds.· Monitor policy impacts—Watch for delayed effects from tariffs and monetary policy.· Embrace active management—Especially in regions with less coverage and more inefficiencies.· Explore private assets—As access expands, these can enhance portfolio resilience.· Leverage technology—AI will increasingly support research and efficiency, but human insight remains essential.---Links & Resources · Listen to the episode: Investments Unplugged Podcast · Learn more about Manulife Investments: Manulife IM Canada---Share & SubscribeIf you enjoyed this episode, please share it with your network and subscribe for future insights on markets, investing, and portfolio strategy.---For informational purposes only. This episode does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.---Show notes prepared by Investments Unplugged Podcast Team, September 2025.

We’re just weeks away from yet another school year—but not before Macan heads out on a last-minute vacation. Will Kevin be forced to deal with a market fallout in his absence? Join our dynamic co-chief investment strategists as they joke about the market’s tendency to correct when Macan is out of office. Listen in as they weigh the balance of risks affecting the global economy and discuss what corporations are saying about today’s market environment. Get the scoop on markets and the economy as summer nears its end. Tune in to this episode of Investments Unplugged for insight before the back-to-school period ramps up.

Summer has officially kicked into high gear, and many of us are looking to wind down and bask in the heat. Yet, headlines continue to pour in—making it important to stay on top of market developments. Join our dynamic Co-Chief Investment Strategists Kevin Headland, CIM, and Macan Nia, CFA, as they weigh in on some of the latest news stories, including U.S. dollar weakness, rate cut prospects amid mounting political pressures, and the broader implications of the U.S. administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Looking to stay connected this summer? Tune in to Investments Unplugged for talking points that are surely top of mind for investors. Don’t miss this one.

Warmer days are on the horizon, and while many of us are planning our next vacation spots, others are looking back at the half year and recalibrating their portfolios for what lies ahead. What happened to markets in the first half of the year? What can we expect as we move into the year’s final stretch? Tune in to our new podcast episode as our Co-Chief Investment Strategists Kevin Headland and Macan Nia discuss the opportunities and risks affecting the global economy, including U.S. tariff policy, decelerations in global manufacturing, and the role of corporate earnings as a potential driver of market performance. Will the chaos and unpredictability witnessed during the first six months of 2025 prevail in the months ahead? Listen in to our episode for all this and more. Intended for Investment Professionals, investors should connect with their financial advisor for more information

Is the greenback currently at an inflection point? Listen in as our Capital Markets Strategy Team weighs in on the U.S. administration’s proposed economic and trade initiatives, including the Mar-a-Lago Accord—a modern echo of the 1985 Plaza Accord. Explore the implications of devaluing the U.S. dollar in today’s global economy and learn more about trade deficits and some of the bold ideas from White House chief economist Stephen Miran. Can the U.S. dollar maintain its reserve currency status? Is multilateral cooperation even possible in today’s geopolitical climate? Tune in to our podcast episode for all this and more

The magnitude of the U.S. administration’s “Liberation Day” tariffs surely caught investors off guard. How did markets react to the news? Will U.S. trade policy reshape global trade dynamics? Join our Co-Chief Investment Strategists Kevin Headland and Macan Nia as they discuss the market’s strong reaction to President Trump’s announcement on April 2. Is this a policy play or part of a deeper structural shift? How will upcoming congressional outreach factor into the evolving economic picture? Stay on top of this rapidly evolving situation—don’t miss out on our new podcast episode.

European equities have recently outpaced their U.S. counterparts, setting the stage for a potential resurgence in overseas markets. Is this the start of a significant rotation into European equities? Join our Co-Chief Investment Strategists, Kevin Headland and Macan Nia, as they underscore the current momentum driving European equities and discuss improvements in European manufacturing. Find out how a significant rise in defense spending across various European countries could help stimulate the economy through infrastructure, logistics, and other support service enhancements. Don't miss this insightful discussion—tune in to our latest podcast episode for all this and more!

Rising tensions, evolving trade policies, and potential tariffs have sparked widespread discussions—even going as far as rallying hockey fans on both sides of the Canada-US border. Are these policies merely a negotiation tactic, or do they signal a shift in North American trade dynamics? Join our Co-Chief Investment Strategists, Kevin Headland and Macan Nia, as they explore the latest trade developments and their potential implications for Canadian investors. In an in-depth conversation with Dominique Lapointe, Global Macro Strategist, Multi-Asset Solutions Team, we zero in on tariffs and trade disputes and examine their potential impact on Canada’s economy. Tune in to our latest episode for insight on this evolving landscape.

2025 is in full swing! What can we expect from equity and fixed income markets as the year gradually unfolds? Our first podcast episode of 2025 is an absolute must-listen. Hear from our Co-Chief Investment Strategists Kevin Headland and Macan Nia, as they delve into the opportunities and challenges shaping the market landscape this year. Can we expect some volatility up ahead? No matter what’s in store for investors in the coming months, it’s important not to get overly cautious or fearful. Stay the course, and as always, remember to stay invested—especially when there are bumps along the way. Tune in as our experts underscore some of the key developments in 2025. This is one episode of Investments Unplugged you won’t want to miss!

The festive holiday season is upon us and what better time than now to reflect and prepare for the road ahead. Don’t miss out on this unique opportunity to hear from Kevin and Macan as they look to 2025 and share their thoughts on equity and fixed income developments. Will equity fundamentals continue to be a defining theme in the new year? What role will security selection and duration management play in the fixed income space? Tune in to the year’s last episode of Investments Unplugged, as our experts delve into their base case, bull case and bear case scenarios for 2025. This is one episode you just can’t miss. Be sure to tune in! Intended for Investment Professionals, investors should connect with their financial advisor for more information.

Data surprises, recession concerns, shifting U.S. Federal Reserve policy? What if building a resilient portfolio mattered more than predicting future outcomes. This month, our Co-Chief Investment Strategist Kevin Headland had the pleasure of sitting down with Mawer Investment Management’s President and Portfolio Manager Jim Hall to discuss how patience and discipline play a crucial role in navigating volatile markets. Listen in as Jim delves into some of our flagship funds and reminds us to approach investing with a steady hand. As markets fluctuate, a well thought-out, long-term strategy remains the cornerstone of success. Here’s to embracing the journey and mastering The Art of Boring in investing! Be sure to tune in to our podcast episode.

Here we are—100 episodes and 7 years later! This truly is a remarkable milestone for our Investments Unplugged podcast, which has seen roughly 86,000 downloads since the pilot episode aired all those years ago. In this month’s celebratory episode, we get up close and personal with our dynamic hosts and Co-Chief Investment Strategists: Kevin Headland and Macan Nia. Take a trip down memory lane as they reflect on their careers and offer valuable insight to aspiring young investment professionals. Considering a career in markets or investing? Think you could benefit from the lessons they’ve learned over the years? Tune in as Kevin and Macan look through the rearview mirror and commemorate their 100th episode. This is one episode you just can’t miss. Be sure to tune in!

Children are heading back to the classroom for yet another school year. What better time than now to reinforce our portfolios with lessons learned from our early childhood? This month, our Co-Chief Investment Strategists Kevin Headland and Macan Nia address economic concerns, equities and fixed income developments, and the art of managing volatility—all through the lens of some our favourite children’s classics. Get ready to revisit some of your favourite childhood gems and gear up for the final stretch of 2024 with this truly unique perspective on markets. Don’t miss out on this podcast episode.